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This could be Cleverly’s moment – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,049
edited August 26 in General
imageThis could be Cleverly’s moment – politicalbetting.com

Sample 805; fieldwork 2-12 Aug; poll commissioned by Cleverly

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,332
    edited August 19
    Oh its passed already.

    Oh well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,379
    edited August 19
    First after @DavidL
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    edited August 19
    DavidL said:

    Oh its passed already.

    Oh well.

    What, Cleverly's moment? :open_mouth:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,332
    Benpointer said:

    First after @DavidL

    An excellent motto if I may say so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    On topic, 'poll commissioned by Cleverly'?

    Do we get to see the question? I guess Techne are BPC so it's not "Who do you prefer, the patriot Cleverly or the liberal pro-immigration remoaner Kemi Badenoch?" :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Another triple stabbing this time in Manchester with one woman killed and 2 others injured
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Have they finally invaded?


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050
    edited August 19
    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    edited August 19
    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553
    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    Big difference is we have the BPC so we can get to see the questions asked and laugh at this poll if it has flawed methodology.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    Sunak and Hunt are yesterday, Cleverly is a good choice for the future from a poor list of candidates
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,521
    edited August 19
    I do think it’s plausible Cleverly gets into the final 2. What happens then depends on who’s there with him.

    I would favour Badenoch over Cleverly but I am starting to doubt myself there. She does of course push all the right culture war buttons for the membership but she’s had a rocky campaign so far and I wonder if she’ll cope with the frontrunner pressure as the campaign continues.

    I think he’d stand an excellent chance vs Tugendhat and Patel. He’d beat Stride easily.

    If it’s Cleverly v Jenrick I am pretty sure Jenrick wins.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    I'd vote for the godless bitch, no hesitation.
    https://x.com/TheZarric/status/1824252282063499585
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    I'd vote for the godless bitch, no hesitation.
    https://x.com/TheZarric/status/1824252282063499585
    Be careful - Yvette Cooper is around
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,367
    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,367
    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,229
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257

    Of course they can arrest criminals. They just can't jail them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    I'd vote for the godless bitch, no hesitation.
    https://x.com/TheZarric/status/1824252282063499585
    Be careful - Yvette Cooper is around
    I'm using it as a term of approval.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,998
    The header cites a poll commissioned by one of the candidates?

    Credulity klaxon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,742
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257

    Of course they can arrest criminals. They just can't jail them.
    Can we send them to Rwanda?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,103
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Go Cleverly!!!!

    Green on him.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257

    They can, the rioters have just taken the spare capacity and the Labour government is early releasing low level offenders to free up more space
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    If Jenrick, Patel and Badenoch are loosely on the right, that gives the right at least 33 MPs (one candidate plus ten nominations times three candidates).

    That's not quite enough to be sure that a candidate of the right will get through to the final round (that needs 40), but it will probably do.

    What's much more interesting is the polling evidence that the Party In The Country won't necessarily go for the most right wing thing on the menu.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    The normal assumption is the few remaining Tory MPs, having seen their colleagues swept away in the tsunami of 2024, are highly motivated to avoid the same thing happening to them next time.

    That assumption may be false.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,998
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    That ship has sailed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    I'd vote for the godless bitch, no hesitation.
    https://x.com/TheZarric/status/1824252282063499585
    Be careful - Yvette Cooper is around
    I'm using it as a term of approval.
    I know
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    +1 godless bitch. Much more fun.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,998
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
    Our sons RNLI fellow helm is a captain of a superyacht
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050

    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,886
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257

    Full piece:https://archive.ph/7VgMG
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,998
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,229
    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    "It" or it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Another triple stabbing this time in Manchester with one woman killed and 2 others injured

    X/Twits already full of the usual bonkers postings about "we know who is responsible but they wont tell us".
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,762
    Mexicanpete said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Depends if you've asked all 15 head to heads or Cleverly Vs Stride followed by Cleverly Vs Patel etc

    The fact it was a poll by Team Clever Jimmy does hint at one of TSE's readings of Trump v Harris polling.

    If there was an election tomorrow would you vote for (the reincarnation of Jesus Christ) Donald Trump or (the Godless b**ch troll) Kamela Harris?
    If Trump is the reincarnation of Jesus Christ, I’ll be asking TSE if I can become a good muslim boy like himself.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,261
    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    No option for "Cesspit of far right misinformation"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Another triple stabbing this time in Manchester with one woman killed and 2 others injured

    X/Twits already full of the usual bonkers postings about "we know who is responsible but they wont tell us".
    A young male.
    ..Greater Manchester police said a 22-year-old man had been arrested and the “early indications” were that he was known to the victims. The force said the stabbing in the Gorton area of east Manchester was being treated as an isolated incident...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    "It" or it?
    A pollster blocked me on WhatsApp when I kept on asking them to poll this question.

    Q: Do you pronounce it as

    ‘Data’

    Or

    ‘Data’?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,647
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
    Bloody hell, this thing is the same length as HMS Victory. Seems pretty super to me.

    It also has an insanely high mast, 75 metres, which makes me think it possibly just got blown over (even with no sails up)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,109
    Stuartinromford said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    If Jenrick, Patel and Badenoch are loosely on the right, that gives the right at least 33 MPs (one candidate plus ten nominations times three candidates).

    That's not quite enough to be sure that a candidate of the right will get through to the final round (that needs 40), but it will probably do.

    What's much more interesting is the polling evidence that the Party In The Country won't necessarily go for the most right wing thing on the menu.
    Jenrick is arguably a centrist posing as a right-winger; it's complicated. The schedule does not help. Next month, six candidates will be reduced to four, who will then give speeches at conference (at which stage two decades back, David Cameron swept past long-term favourite David Davis).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,481
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    They've bought the result forward to fit with that haven't they?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,028
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    They've bought the result forward to fit with that haven't they?
    Have they. I missed that
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    @hugorifkind

    I'm not proud that on first glance I genuinely did think this was a t-shirt attacking the Shadow Home Secretary.

    https://x.com/hugorifkind/status/1825099710039802174
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,032
    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    I don't think this is unique to Twix. People are rightly very resistant to changing the name of a thing at the whim of a company.

    On which subject, driving through Horwich last week I noticed that Bolton Wanderers are now inviting us to call the Reebok Stadium the 'Toughsheet Community Stadium'. Just no. I can accept a name of a thing being sold for money once, at its outset, but that is ridiculous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,553
    rottenborough said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    They've bought the result forward to fit with that haven't they?
    Some people have proposed it but it hasn’t been actioned.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    "It" or it?
    A pollster blocked me on WhatsApp when I kept on asking them to poll this question.

    Q: Do you pronounce it as

    ‘Data’

    Or

    ‘Data’?
    'it'? 'them', surely? :wink:

    (I'll let you off if you're referring to the word rather than the plural things)

    Another fun one, in a particular statistical niche is whether it's 'Stata', 'Stata' or 'Stata' ('stay-ta', 'starter' or 'statta')
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    "It" or it?
    A pollster blocked me on WhatsApp when I kept on asking them to poll this question.

    Q: Do you pronounce it as

    ‘Data’

    Or

    ‘Data’?
    Or, if you’re Australian,

    ‘Darter’.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,480
    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    "It" or it?
    A pollster blocked me on WhatsApp when I kept on asking them to poll this question.

    Q: Do you pronounce it as

    ‘Data’

    Or

    ‘Data’?
    'it'? 'them', surely? :wink:

    (I'll let you off if you're referring to the word rather than the plural things)

    Another fun one, in a particular statistical niche is whether it's 'Stata', 'Stata' or 'Stata' ('stay-ta', 'starter' or 'statta')
    Them?

    I didn't realise the android was non-binary, I thought they were a he.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    I'm not sure that they do- it won't change the outcome, and politically, Reeves's announcements will either work, or they won't.

    Indeed, given that it's a famously tough gig for the LotO, the risk that a new leader stumbles and starts down the IDS doom loop seems worth avoiding.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Stuartinromford said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    I'm not sure that they do- it won't change the outcome, and politically, Reeves's announcements will either work, or they won't.

    Indeed, given that it's a famously tough gig for the LotO, the risk that a new leader stumbles and starts down the IDS doom loop seems worth avoiding.
    +1 - if Rishi screws it up no-one is going to remember. If the new person screws it up they will have provided a reason for their early departure before their business cards are ready...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,349
    Stuartinromford said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    I'm not sure that they do- it won't change the outcome, and politically, Reeves's announcements will either work, or they won't.

    Indeed, given that it's a famously tough gig for the LotO, the risk that a new leader stumbles and starts down the IDS doom loop seems worth avoiding.
    Which is why it makes sense for the incumbent to do it. He understands the role, has half a decade of Treasury experience, and if he messes up the headlines will be chip paper a few days later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,050
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    I don't think this is unique to Twix. People are rightly very resistant to changing the name of a thing at the whim of a company.

    On which subject, driving through Horwich last week I noticed that Bolton Wanderers are now inviting us to call the Reebok Stadium the 'Toughsheet Community Stadium'. Just no. I can accept a name of a thing being sold for money once, at its outset, but that is ridiculous.
    How many people still refer to a snickers as a marathon... Once something has a known name changing it takes decades for the new name to be used.

    Round here the House of Fraser / Frasers department store was Binns. It's been House of Fraser for 20+ years - everyone still refers to it as Binns., Likewise Bainbridges is still Bainbridges rather than John Lewis in Newcastle..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    Jenrick, maybe Kemi, and less so Priti than expected. Tugsy seems to be blowing hot and cold Farage-lite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Scott_xP said:

    @hugorifkind

    I'm not proud that on first glance I genuinely did think this was a t-shirt attacking the Shadow Home Secretary.

    https://x.com/hugorifkind/status/1825099710039802174

    Isn't it ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    I don't think this is unique to Twix. People are rightly very resistant to changing the name of a thing at the whim of a company.

    On which subject, driving through Horwich last week I noticed that Bolton Wanderers are now inviting us to call the Reebok Stadium the 'Toughsheet Community Stadium'. Just no. I can accept a name of a thing being sold for money once, at its outset, but that is ridiculous.
    How many people still refer to a snickers as a marathon... Once something has a known name changing it takes decades for the new name to be used.

    Round here the House of Fraser / Frasers department store was Binns. It's been House of Fraser for 20+ years - everyone still refers to it as Binns., Likewise Bainbridges is still Bainbridges rather than John Lewis in Newcastle..
    Or indeed, given we're on a political site, how often are the Conservatives referred to as Tories? :wink:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    Why?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    I've rarely seen so many numbers in one sentence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Why the Gripen might look more attractive than the F16 for future Ukraine orders.

    "We [Sweden] have never put any restrictions on the weapons that we have delivered to Ukraine, and we do not intend to do it now. And Ukraine has put those weapons to good use", - Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström.
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1825221640243884192
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,998
    edited August 19
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
    I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.

    You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.

    So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Your problem is the voters who are happy to choose either Lab, LD, or Green to tactically keep you out. Fundamentally your fallacy is adding the Con and Ref totals together and saying "look - we beat Labour" - which is quite true (a notional 39% v. 34%) - but ignores the many who would gladly shift their votes around to prevent you and Ref getting into power. That is what happened at the election.

    It's trite now to say you were not beaten by enthusiasm for Labour but it can easily be argued you were beaten by enthusiasm for anyone that could beat the Tories. The combined Lab/LD.Green vote verses the combined Con/Ref vote is roughly 39% v 54% (and I don't even include PC/SNP in the latter). That's your problem.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,455
    mercator said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Selebian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
    Bloody hell, this thing is the same length as HMS Victory. Seems pretty super to me.

    It also has an insanely high mast, 75 metres, which makes me think it possibly just got blown over (even with no sails up)
    Something about the photo used makes it look really quite normal-sized, until you zoom in and see that the tiny blobs of colour are people wearing lifejackets, and it's actually very large for a yacht.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    I don't think this is unique to Twix. People are rightly very resistant to changing the name of a thing at the whim of a company.

    On which subject, driving through Horwich last week I noticed that Bolton Wanderers are now inviting us to call the Reebok Stadium the 'Toughsheet Community Stadium'. Just no. I can accept a name of a thing being sold for money once, at its outset, but that is ridiculous.
    Particularly as it's obviously going to be known as the Tough Shit Community Stadium when Bolton fail to win anything.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    edited August 19
    On topic

    What's the choice?
    1. Adverb
    2. German self-virtue-signaller
    3. A trouser, singular
    4. Okay but not quite wicked
    5. Not a knobbly knee

    eta because there are 6

    6. Generic
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,455
    Stuartinromford said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I would be pleased If Cleverly won but for me it needs deciding earlier than the present timescale

    I think they are correct in making 4 sing for their supper at the conference.
    They need a leader before Reeves Autumn statement
    I'm not sure that they do- it won't change the outcome, and politically, Reeves's announcements will either work, or they won't.

    Indeed, given that it's a famously tough gig for the LotO, the risk that a new leader stumbles and starts down the IDS doom loop seems worth avoiding.
    The choice of a new leader will be a rare opportunity for the opposition to set the news agenda.

    If it's before the budget, then it's immediately overshadowed. If it's after the budget then they have the chance to reinforce criticism of a badly-received budget, or move the agenda on from a successful one.

    I don't think it's the worst thing to have the new leader after the budget.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Childhood lead exposure is very likely one of the more significant factors in IQ divergence across the globe.

    Afghanistan has one of the world's highest rates of childhood lead exposure, which causes permanent brain damage.

    Nearly all children here have significant lead poisoning.

    Researchers in the US have found the source of the lead. But nobody has told the Afghan public.

    Thread.
    https://x.com/JeffRigsby2/status/1825256398764265739
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,109
    Donald Trump shares fake AI images of ‘support’ from Taylor Swift fans
    Republican presidential candidate bombards Truth Social with pictures of ‘Swifties for Trump’ but it is unclear whether he knew they were false
    https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/donald-trump-taylor-swift-ai-truth-social-0btsbsng5 (£££)

    Who needs Russian trolls when the candidates post fake images?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Donald Trump shares fake AI images of ‘support’ from Taylor Swift fans
    Republican presidential candidate bombards Truth Social with pictures of ‘Swifties for Trump’ but it is unclear whether he knew they were false
    https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/donald-trump-taylor-swift-ai-truth-social-0btsbsng5 (£££)

    Who needs Russian trolls when the candidates post fake images?

    That could be quite an expensive lawsuit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
    I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.

    You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.

    So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
    Oh, Badenoch definitely up for a fight with the opposition and large elements of the party would fear a KB attack.

    Unfortunately, the party in question is the Conservative Party, because KB's definition of opposition is rather widely drawn.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,462
    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
    I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.

    You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.

    So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
    Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    geoffw said:

    On topic

    What's the choice?
    1. Adverb
    2. German self-virtue-signaller
    3. A trouser, singular
    4. Okay but not quite wicked
    5. Not a knobbly knee

    eta because there are 6

    6. Generic

    Stride is just a posh person's Stroud.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,362
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Donald Trump shares fake AI images of ‘support’ from Taylor Swift fans
    Republican presidential candidate bombards Truth Social with pictures of ‘Swifties for Trump’ but it is unclear whether he knew they were false
    https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/donald-trump-taylor-swift-ai-truth-social-0btsbsng5 (£££)

    Who needs Russian trolls when the candidates post fake images?

    It seems quite likely he is about to become extremely familiar with Ms Swift's formidable legal team...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,708
    Stocky said:

    The header cites a poll commissioned by one of the candidates?

    Credulity klaxon.

    I don't give this poll the tiniest shred of credibility until I see how it was done, and how it was verified that those polled were actually a fair representation of members (or even members at all).

    If it is legit, it's unfortunate for Cleverly that he did so ridiculously well against all comers - makes it seem dodgy as all get out.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,109
    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Donald Trump shares fake AI images of ‘support’ from Taylor Swift fans
    Republican presidential candidate bombards Truth Social with pictures of ‘Swifties for Trump’ but it is unclear whether he knew they were false
    https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/donald-trump-taylor-swift-ai-truth-social-0btsbsng5 (£££)

    Who needs Russian trolls when the candidates post fake images?

    That could be quite an expensive lawsuit.
    Especially if one of the alleged Swifties for Trump is a well-known lawyer.

    In unrelated news:-

    Keir Starmer received £4,000 Taylor Swift tickets in freebies
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/keir-starmer-taylor-swift-tickets-mps-register-of-interests-freebies-b1177247.html
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,647
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.

    Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.

    Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Telegraph
    @Telegraph

    🔴 Police can’t arrest criminals if the jails are full of rioters, says prison officers’ union boss"

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1825251830042886257

    Wonder what the Venn Diagram of habitual criminals and rightwing rioters would reveal?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,708
    Anabobazina said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
    I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.

    You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.

    So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
    Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
    Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,455
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.

    Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.

    Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
    What about the 177,000 voters the Lib Dems lost between 2019 and 2024?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,275
    Northern_Al said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:


    Do you refer to it as...

    X: 4%
    Twitter: 70%
    Both: 12%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1825491513838543230

    I don't think this is unique to Twix. People are rightly very resistant to changing the name of a thing at the whim of a company.

    On which subject, driving through Horwich last week I noticed that Bolton Wanderers are now inviting us to call the Reebok Stadium the 'Toughsheet Community Stadium'. Just no. I can accept a name of a thing being sold for money once, at its outset, but that is ridiculous.
    Particularly as it's obviously going to be known as the Tough Shit Community Stadium when Bolton fail to win anything.
    Saddened but NOT shocked that you beat me in posting this joke!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,567
    edited August 19
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.

    Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.

    Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
    Here is the infographic you seek;

    Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).



    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1812751453842190571

    Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    JohnO said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
    Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
    I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
    Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
    But who of the six represent that?
    The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
    I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.

    You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.

    So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
    Labour would be delighted with Badenoch. She always appears to be in a most frightful temper and that's just with fellow Tories.
    This Labourite agrees. Kemi always seems to think she's absolutely right about everything, and brooks no criticism from any side. When anybody has the temerity to disagree with her, or even question her, she resorts to being dismissive and/or patronising.
    It's not a good look, and nor are those the qualities a leader needs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    LOL
    https://x.com/McKay4Senate/status/1825524026086674741
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,138
    Stuartinromford said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.

    Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.

    Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
    Here is the infographic you seek;

    Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).



    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1812751453842190571

    Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
    You never know, they might come back to haunt him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,781
    Thought and prayers for DuraAce

    Lenin meets Ukrainian troops, Kursk oblast.
    https://x.com/amramleifer/status/1825031222034087998
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 401
    edited August 19
    Stuartinromford said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.

    His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride

    The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
    On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
    BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
    Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
    Just to examine this in a little more detail.

    According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.

    However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.

    Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
    So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.

    (Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
    Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.

    Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.

    Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
    Here is the infographic you seek;

    Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).



    https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1812751453842190571

    Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
    The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.

    National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.

    I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.

    ---

    Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that insight may not be particularly meaningful.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,065
    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden hands over the White House to President Bartlett.
    https://x.com/cspan/status/1824141849084239892

    President Bartlett looks rather more compis mentis than President Biden.
    Where was President Walken?
    I'm not quite sure how to put this, but...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg6phTl6M8Q
This discussion has been closed.