Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
I don't think that's all that unusual for the Lib Dems. A lot of their voters are tactical voters, and if they move, the chances are it won't make sense to keep voting Lib Dem where they've moved to. This is much less likely to be a factor for a Labour or a Tory voter.
Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'
(Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)
ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
Bloody hell, this thing is the same length as HMS Victory. Seems pretty super to me.
It also has an insanely high mast, 75 metres, which makes me think it possibly just got blown over (even with no sails up)
Something about the photo used makes it look really quite normal-sized, until you zoom in and see that the tiny blobs of colour are people wearing lifejackets, and it's actually very large for a yacht.
Waterspouts are very common around Sicily at this time of year when the sea is warm but if there were storms around they can generate strong winds in other ways (such as downbursts) that would be more likely to hit and flip a yacht in an unexpected manner.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that may not be particularly meaningful.
Right votes in the right places.
From the perspective of now, it's obvious where those right places are- very crudely, Nice Britain, aided by the Conservatives forgetting that "The Nasty Party" is something that they are meant to be living down.
When it's memoirs time, I'd love to know how conscious that move was, because it was blooming effective.
Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'
(Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)
ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
Bloody hell, this thing is the same length as HMS Victory. Seems pretty super to me.
It also has an insanely high mast, 75 metres, which makes me think it possibly just got blown over (even with no sails up)
Something about the photo used makes it look really quite normal-sized, until you zoom in and see that the tiny blobs of colour are people wearing lifejackets, and it's actually very large for a yacht.
Yeah, I stand corrected. I'm Dougal to Father Ted: in the pics I thought it was just close, but it turns out it was really big.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'
(Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)
ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
Bloody hell, this thing is the same length as HMS Victory. Seems pretty super to me.
It also has an insanely high mast, 75 metres, which makes me think it possibly just got blown over (even with no sails up)
Something about the photo used makes it look really quite normal-sized, until you zoom in and see that the tiny blobs of colour are people wearing lifejackets, and it's actually very large for a yacht.
Waterspouts are very common around Sicily at this time of year when the sea is warm but if there were storms around they can generate strong winds in other ways (such as downbursts) that would be more likely to hit and flip a yacht in an unexpected manner.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
FWIW (and its not much because I don't have a vote) that was the view I had come to as well. What the Tories need is someone who has a broader grasp and vision and I have yet to see that from her.
The problem with that article is the phrase "beloved Arsenal".
Why were the Premier League giving very expensive hospitality to a party leader in the middle of an election campaign, for a pop concert totally unrelated to football?
Surely Starmer wasn’t an MP in June, and the cost of the tickets should be treated as part of his campaign expenses?
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
---
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that insight may not be particularly meaningful.
I'm currently compiling my running totals spreadsheet for the election, and an interesting if useless fact is that after 306 results were declared the LD share was exactly the same as in 2019 to 2 decimal places: 10.14%. The second half of the results must have been slightly better for them.
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs" back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
Every living Democratic President speaking or, in Carter's case, represented. Unlike Trump, who didn't have the support of much, if any, of the old Republican party.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs", back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
FWIW (and its not much because I don't have a vote) that was the view I had come to as well. What the Tories need is someone who has a broader grasp and vision and I have yet to see that from her.
It's a pity because it's perfectly possible to hold Kemi's position on culture war topics at the same time as holding a voter friendly position on competent administration/wealth creation/provision of public services/all the other things voters want a government to do. Kemi's position is not by itself inimical to building vote-winning coalition for the Tories. But she needs to be seen to be interested in all the other things a government needs to do.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
She has a young family and it’s the middle of August. She had to take a holiday at some point, and it was an unfortunate clash that would have likely cost her thousands of her own money to rearrange.
More interested in her policy ideas, than her attendance at every single hustings.
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs", back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
I thought it was pretty funny. FWIW.
I did too. Made me think though...
The last three losing Democrat Presidential nominees: Clinton H, Kerry, Gore.
The last three Democrats elected President: Biden, Obama, Clinton B.
I worry that Harris feels like a better fit with the first group than with the second group.
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs", back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
I thought it was pretty funny. FWIW.
I did too. Made me think though...
The last three losing Democrat Presidential nominees: Clinton H, Kerry, Gore.
The last three Democrats elected President: Biden, Obama, Clinton B.
I worry that Harris feels like a better fit with the first group than with the second group.
That's not my instinctive response. All those three came across as pretty wooden, flatfooted campaigners. The 2024 model Harris is way different from that.
Not having to define herself against a fellow Democrat probably helps with that. The primary process is not always a constructive one.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
FWIW (and its not much because I don't have a vote) that was the view I had come to as well. What the Tories need is someone who has a broader grasp and vision and I have yet to see that from her.
It's a pity because it's perfectly possible to hold Kemi's position on culture war topics at the same time as holding a voter friendly position on competent administration/wealth creation/provision of public services/all the other things voters want a government to do. Kemi's position is not by itself inimical to building vote-winning coalition for the Tories. But she needs to be seen to be interested in all the other things a government needs to do.
She showed remarkably little interest in what her own department was supposed to be doing. She was invisible in relation to the PO, for example, when that was the really hot issue of the day. I honestly hoped for a lot more, especially given her background.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
She has a young family and it’s the middle of August. She had to take a holiday at some point, and it was an unfortunate clash that would have likely cost her thousands of her own money to rearrange.
More interested in her policy ideas, than her attendance at every single hustings.
That she was on holiday, and indeed that Starmer had to cancel his underlines Sunak's foolishness in calling the election for early July. Although given his, and Cleverly's ability to grasp control of a situation it's probably a good thing they weren't in office when the riots started.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
I really think the most sensible option is Cleverly who is the most senior of the candidates and does, at least, have some gravitas. He also has the advantage of not being identified too much with any of the factions. Badenoch, Jenrick, even Tugendhat, are relatively untested and risky options. They would be better off serving under Cleverly in senior shadow cabinet roles and fighting for the leadership next time round.
The problem with that article is the phrase "beloved Arsenal".
The other problem is the total inaccuracy in the detail. Taylor Swift's London concerts have all been at Wembley, not at the O2. Something which even if you're not a Swifty should be bloody obvious to anyone at the Standard from the massive photo above the text showing an open-air stadium.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work. Because of her position and role, it can be hard to organise time off for holidays. But she needs to take a break occasionally, and there is always something urgent at work that needs doing.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work. Because of her position and role, it can be hard to organise time off for holidays. But she needs to take a break occasionally, and there is always something urgent at work that needs doing.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
(*) Work other people do is always urgent.
It's nonsense anyway, she didn't go on holiday to 'avoid the hustings' - what a ridiculous suggestion.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
FWIW (and its not much because I don't have a vote) that was the view I had come to as well. What the Tories need is someone who has a broader grasp and vision and I have yet to see that from her.
It's a pity because it's perfectly possible to hold Kemi's position on culture war topics at the same time as holding a voter friendly position on competent administration/wealth creation/provision of public services/all the other things voters want a government to do. Kemi's position is not by itself inimical to building vote-winning coalition for the Tories. But she needs to be seen to be interested in all the other things a government needs to do.
WH24. Even though I’m relaxed given I think Harris will win the PV by over 5 pts and therefore has about a million paths in the EC I’ve done a deep dive into the states to see how that’s looking. Please ignore the following if you don’t value rigorous grinding sweat-infused ‘bottoms up’ analysis.
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
WH24. Even though I’m relaxed given I think Harris will win the PV by over 5 pts and therefore has about a million paths in the EC I’ve done a deep dive into the states to see how that’s looking. Please ignore the following if you don’t value rigorous grinding sweat-infused ‘bottoms up’ analysis.
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
I think Trump will win AZ and MI. Given that - if Harris wins PA she still likely wins overall - correct?
WH24. Even though I’m relaxed given I think Harris will win the PV by over 5 pts and therefore has about a million paths in the EC I’ve done a deep dive into the states to see how that’s looking. Please ignore the following if you don’t value rigorous grinding sweat-infused ‘bottoms up’ analysis.
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
WH24. Even though I’m relaxed given I think Harris will win the PV by over 5 pts and therefore has about a million paths in the EC I’ve done a deep dive into the states to see how that’s looking. Please ignore the following if you don’t value rigorous grinding sweat-infused ‘bottoms up’ analysis.
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
I think Trump will win AZ and MI. Given that - if Harris wins PA she still likely wins overall - correct?
I don't think Trump wins either.
He has had a wretched couple of weeks. Combined with the Convention bounce that Harris/Walz likely get, the Republicans are going to be desperately working out where the hell to spend their limited funds. (I suspect the Democrats will have a tidy Convention fundraising spike as well.)
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work. Because of her position and role, it can be hard to organise time off for holidays. But she needs to take a break occasionally, and there is always something urgent at work that needs doing.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
(*) Work other people do is always urgent.
Not sure your comment about as a pensioner I can go on holiday anytime I like is relevant, not least because I worked full time in employment and my own businesses from 1962 to 2009, had a family of 3 children, but was not standing for a position that leads possibly to Prime Minister, especially when the actual Prime Minister cancelled his holidays
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
I must have missed her soaring oratory. She presents as entirely dull.
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work. Because of her position and role, it can be hard to organise time off for holidays. But she needs to take a break occasionally, and there is always something urgent at work that needs doing.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
(*) Work other people do is always urgent.
Not sure your comment about as a pensioner I can go on holiday anytime I like is relevant, not least because I worked full time in employment and my own businesses from 1962 to 2009, had a family of 3 children, but was not standing for a position that leads possibly to Prime Minister, especially when the actual Prime Minister cancelled his holidays
It certainly did not go down well at the hustings
TBH, Mr G that says as much about those present at the hustings, and especially the Chair, as about Ms KB.
And as a self-employed pharmacist for 20 years I know all about the difficulties of arranging holidays. Had to make sure a locum would be on site, and if he or she cancelled at the last minute, that was us sunk.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
---
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that insight may not be particularly meaningful.
Yes, but the Lib Dems weren't actually trying to retain their vote all over the country. The Lib Dem campaign was very disciplined.
I gave some support in a couple of seats, both of which we won from the Tories - but just a token amount in my own patch -not even chasing out the vote on polling day.
I think the Lib Dem vote will still be there next year in the County elections.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
I really think the most sensible option is Cleverly who is the most senior of the candidates and does, at least, have some gravitas. He also has the advantage of not being identified too much with any of the factions. Badenoch, Jenrick, even Tugendhat, are relatively untested and risky options. They would be better off serving under Cleverly in senior shadow cabinet roles and fighting for the leadership next time round.
@MarqueeMark I've noticed a disturbing absence of bees and butterflies in my garden this year - are you trapping fewer moths?
Plenty of bees in my garden. V few butterflies. No Brown Meadow at all this year so far. Only a few cabbage whites (usually loads of these).
Similar for us (in SE Scotland), but we do have a garden primarily designed to grow bee food. Some hoverflies, not as many as usual though. Very few butterflies this year whether in the garden or on walks.
Edit: a fair proportion of the few butterflies looked very much like Meadow Browns.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
---
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that insight may not be particularly meaningful.
Yes, but the Lib Dems weren't actually trying to retain their vote all over the country. The Lib Dem campaign was very disciplined.
I gave some support in a couple of seats, both of which we won from the Tories - but just a token amount in my own patch -not even chasing out the vote on polling day.
I think the Lib Dem vote will still be there next year in the County elections.
I was struck by @tse's observation the other day that it was as likely the LDs would do better and overtake the Tories in seats at the next GE, as it is the Tories stage a recovery. Given how disciplined and targeted be LD campaign was last time, and the extent that that they can build on it with greater resources next time, I think he might be right
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that may not be particularly meaningful.
Right votes in the right places.
From the perspective of now, it's obvious where those right places are- very crudely, Nice Britain, aided by the Conservatives forgetting that "The Nasty Party" is something that they are meant to be living down.
When it's memoirs time, I'd love to know how conscious that move was, because it was blooming effective.
It's not just about the LD vote going up in certain seats; it's also the similar, neighbouring seats where their share remained static or fell.
The scale of the anti-Tory collusion (calling it 'tactical voting' is wholly inadequate) suggests a level of organisation never before seen.
Remember the Smithsonian boasting about 'swapping votes' years ago? I suspect that particular sickness has spread far beyond Bedford.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
Quite a lot of those 2019 Conservative voters are not coming back, no matter how badly Starmer does.
The Lib Dem bar is fascinating.
National vote share edged up from 11.6% to 12.2%, seats increased 650% yet they retained only ~43% of their 2019 voters.
I think 2019 will go down in psephological history as a completely anomalous election.
---
Also, encouraging that more people didn't vote because they died than didn't vote because they were too young, although I haven't adjusted for the population pyramid, so that insight may not be particularly meaningful.
Yes, but the Lib Dems weren't actually trying to retain their vote all over the country. The Lib Dem campaign was very disciplined.
I gave some support in a couple of seats, both of which we won from the Tories - but just a token amount in my own patch -not even chasing out the vote on polling day.
I think the Lib Dem vote will still be there next year in the County elections.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Quite possibly but I remain unconvinced by Badenoch who apparently disappeared on holiday for the last hustings
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
She has a young family and it’s the middle of August. She had to take a holiday at some point, and it was an unfortunate clash that would have likely cost her thousands of her own money to rearrange.
More interested in her policy ideas, than her attendance at every single hustings.
That she was on holiday, and indeed that Starmer had to cancel his underlines Sunak's foolishness in calling the election for early July. Although given his, and Cleverly's ability to grasp control of a situation it's probably a good thing they weren't in office when the riots started.
Would there have been riots if the GE hadn't happened? Given it was the result of "outrage" whipped up by the extreme right, I'm not convinced it would have been whipped up if the Conservatives had held off calling the GE.
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
The GOP candidate meanwhile was Richard Nixon, almost as hated by the liberal left in the US as Trump is now.
Having said that the election itself was very close, Nixon beat Humphrey by just 43.4% to 42.7% with 13.5% voting for Wallace. Though Nixon had a bigger margin in the EC
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
For now, if Labour whacks up taxes on the middle aged and strikes result from Labour's ending the ballots threshold and the boats still come unchecked the Tories will start to appeal beyond their pensioner core vote again.
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs", back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
I thought it was pretty funny. FWIW.
I did too. Made me think though...
The last three losing Democrat Presidential nominees: Clinton H, Kerry, Gore.
The last three Democrats elected President: Biden, Obama, Clinton B.
I worry that Harris feels like a better fit with the first group than with the second group.
That's not my instinctive response. All those three came across as pretty wooden, flatfooted campaigners. The 2024 model Harris is way different from that.
Not having to define herself against a fellow Democrat probably helps with that. The primary process is not always a constructive one.
Hard to say because her appearances so far have been scripted and in front of favourable audiences.
Harris works best, one might say, in an environment where she can be aggressive and punch hard without the other side having an opportunity to fight back on equal terms. Her questioning of Kavanaugh for example in the SC confirmation hearing. It is what you would expect of someone who comes from a DA background in the States.
Where she is less good at - and where the problems are likely to arise - is when she actually has to go toe to toe with someone who can counterpunch on equal terms. Hence her issues in 2019. She also is quite rusty at running in competitive campaigns - the last one she ran in properly (as opposed to one someone's coattails) was a decade ago.
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Labour would be delighted with Badenoch. She always appears to be in a most frightful temper and that's just with fellow Tories.
I suspect Labour and the LDs fear Tugendhat most then Stride and Cleverly. I suspect Reform fear Jenrick most then Badenoch.
None of them fear Priti as her negatives are so high, even though she is probably the most charismatic of the leadership contenders it is almost a negative charisma for many
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
For now, if Labour whacks up taxes on the middle aged and strikes result from Labour's ending the ballots threshold and the boats still come unchecked the Tories will start to appeal beyond their pensioner core vote again.
Truss. Did not do the pensioner core vote any good, in terms of the impact on the new cohorts of pensioners. They aren't forgetting that in a hurry.
@MarqueeMark I've noticed a disturbing absence of bees and butterflies in my garden this year - are you trapping fewer moths?
It was a REALLY bad year first half to the year - cold, wet and windy are awful conditions to run a moth trap. Carried on that way until mid-July, when numbers picked up some. Still large gaps in the species list though. The micromoths are
I have only had one confirmed new species for the garden this year (which was probably a migrant - very few of those too, considering there have been periods of warm weather coming up from Africa). Recent years I have had 20-30 additions to the garden list. They were always going to get more difficult as all the low-hanging fruit have been bagged. The Box Tree Moths however continue their advance across the SW. Global warming at its most obvious.
The butterflies are well down. Haven't seen a Fritillary yet this year. Nor (back to the moths) a Hummingbird Hawkmoth. Had three together in one small patch last year.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
For now, if Labour whacks up taxes on the middle aged and strikes result from Labour's ending the ballots threshold and the boats still come unchecked the Tories will start to appeal beyond their pensioner core vote again.
Truss. Did not do the pensioner core vote any good, in terms of the impact on the new cohorts of pensioners. They aren't forgetting that in a hurry.
Given Labour have now taken away most of their winter fuel allowance and the proposed social care cap they are
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
The problem with that article is the phrase "beloved Arsenal".
Why were the Premier League giving very expensive hospitality to a party leader in the middle of an election campaign, for a pop concert totally unrelated to football?
Surely Starmer wasn’t an MP in June, and the cost of the tickets should be treated as part of his campaign expenses?
I think its blatantly clear what they are doing - the new Football Governance Bill on regulation of the game is being brought in by the new Govt based on work done in an enquiry under the old Govt, and the PL are on a charm offensive scattering tickets to a lot of MPs of both parties to get their view across.
Here is an Indy piece written in April, which mentions football tickets for Keir Starmer, Damian Collins, Theresa Coffey, Justin Tomlinson, Brendan Clarke-Smith, and Michael Gove. https://archive.ph/OBY6i
Plus there are various concert tickets and Brit Awards.
I imagine that shifted as the political balance changed, or was expected to change.
I'm not sure how timing of payments vs the event date works; that will be in the Register of Interests, whenever it comes out.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
So even on the Yougov figures 8% more 2019 Tories went to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined.
(Just it seems some Tories went LD to more than make up for some LDs going Labour and some Tories went Labour to more than make up for Labour voters going Green)
Overall the Conservative vote fell by 20% so your 2024 vote was made up of just over half of whose who voted for you in 2019 (the true Conservative core - 22% of the total electorate), 10% of the 2019 LD vote, 2% of the 2019 Labour vote, 9% of the 2019 Brexit Party vote and 7% of the Green vote, which combined together probably adds up to 2% and that's the Conservative vote - half of what they had plus a few fragments from elsewhere.
Your substantive conclusion is therefore correct - the significant vote moves from 2019 were a) the 25% of 2019 Conservatives who moved to Reform and b) the 10% of Conservatives who moved to Labour.
Yet this only records those who voted - what proportion of the 2019 Conservative vote stayed at home?
Here is the infographic you seek;
Flow of the vote, 2019-24, provisional version (will wait for the BES data to be released to make a final version, plus some deeper cuts).
As for "taking down Harris/Walz signs", back in 2004, when John Kerry was nominated for POTUS, yours truly was a humble sign-schlepper in the FleetCenter (today the TD Garden) in Boston (Mass not Eng).
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
I thought it was pretty funny. FWIW.
I did too. Made me think though...
The last three losing Democrat Presidential nominees: Clinton H, Kerry, Gore.
The last three Democrats elected President: Biden, Obama, Clinton B.
I worry that Harris feels like a better fit with the first group than with the second group.
That's not my instinctive response. All those three came across as pretty wooden, flatfooted campaigners. The 2024 model Harris is way different from that.
Not having to define herself against a fellow Democrat probably helps with that. The primary process is not always a constructive one.
Hard to say because her appearances so far have been scripted and in front of favourable audiences.
Harris works best, one might say, in an environment where she can be aggressive and punch hard without the other side having an opportunity to fight back on equal terms. Her questioning of Kavanaugh for example in the SC confirmation hearing. It is what you would expect of someone who comes from a DA background in the States.
Where she is less good at - and where the problems are likely to arise - is when she actually has to go toe to toe with someone who can counterpunch on equal terms. Hence her issues in 2019. She also is quite rusty at running in competitive campaigns - the last one she ran in properly (as opposed to one someone's coattails) was a decade ago.
She is fortunate, therefore, that she will be up against someone with the early stages of cognitive decline. Not as severe decline as Biden's, but definitely there.
HYUFD said, correctly: "Having said that the election itself was very close, Nixon beat Humphrey by just 43.4% to 42.7% with 13.5% voting for Wallace. Though Nixon had a bigger margin in the EC"
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
Labour ran a campaign based on "We are not the conservatives" no optimistic vision I saw...they won
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
VP taking over as candidate after previous President dropped out? Activists very unhappy about perceived pro-war* stance of incumbent. Slippery and dishonest Republican opponent. Convention being held in Chicago.
* War not involving American servicemen this time around, of course
Don't think it's been mentioned here yet, but the UUP have lost yet another leader - Doug Beattie announced today that he would be standing down after 3 years: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v8rmm0geyo
These days, the UUP are essentially a diffuse collection of factions who for one reason or another can't stomach joining either the DUP or Alliance. Beattie himself was fairly liberal but down to earth - under his leadership, the party had started to inch forward, most notably getting themselves back into Westminster.
4 of their 9 MLAs are now ex-leaders, as is their single MP - so there's got to be a decent possibility that the next leader will be a retread.
If so, the obvious pick would be Mike Nesbitt, who previously spent five years as leader from 2012 until resigning after poor Assembly election results in 2017. He's also from the liberal wing - perhaps even more so than Beattie - and was formerly a TV journalist so is a good media performer. He's currently the Health minister, but as he's now in his late 60s he might not be the right choice for the long term.
Nigelb asked: "What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW."
To start with, these three: 1. A sitting vice president nominee. 2. A nominee chosen by a few party leaders, rather than winning in the usual way. 3. The near certainty of violent demonstrations, anti-Vietnam War then, anti-Israel now.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
For now, if Labour whacks up taxes on the middle aged and strikes result from Labour's ending the ballots threshold and the boats still come unchecked the Tories will start to appeal beyond their pensioner core vote again.
Truss. Did not do the pensioner core vote any good, in terms of the impact on the new cohorts of pensioners. They aren't forgetting that in a hurry.
Given Labour have now taken away most of their winter fuel allowance and the proposed social care cap they are
Given your attention to pensioners you might have grasped that the Conservative administration trashed annuities for new pensioners - the younger ones who will be around longer.
@MarqueeMark I've noticed a disturbing absence of bees and butterflies in my garden this year - are you trapping fewer moths?
It was a REALLY bad year first half to the year - cold, wet and windy are awful conditions to run a moth trap. Carried on that way until mid-July, when numbers picked up some. Still large gaps in the species list though. The micromoths are
I have only had one confirmed new species for the garden this year (which was probably a migrant - very few of those too, considering there have been periods of warm weather coming up from Africa). Recent years I have had 20-30 additions to the garden list. They were always going to get more difficult as all the low-hanging fruit have been bagged. The Box Tree Moths however continue their advance across the SW. Global warming at its most obvious.
The butterflies are well down. Haven't seen a Fritillary yet this year. Nor (back to the moths) a Hummingbird Hawkmoth. Had three together in one small patch last year.
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
VP taking over as candidate after previous President dropped out? Activists very unhappy about perceived pro-war* stance of incumbent. Slippery and dishonest Republican opponent. Convention being held in Chicago.
* War not involving American servicemen this time around, of course
I would add also a country that is generally unhappy at the direction of travel.
Obviously no hostile CPD this time but, in some ways, the opposite policy i.e. excessive backing off from the use of force could have its own issues if rioters are encouraged to act.
The problem with that article is the phrase "beloved Arsenal".
Why were the Premier League giving very expensive hospitality to a party leader in the middle of an election campaign, for a pop concert totally unrelated to football?
Surely Starmer wasn’t an MP in June, and the cost of the tickets should be treated as part of his campaign expenses?
I think its blatantly clear what they are doing - the new Football Governance Bill on regulation of the game is being brought in by the new Govt based on work done in an enquiry under the old Govt, and the PL are on a charm offensive scattering tickets to a lot of MPs of both parties to get their view across.
Here is an Indy piece written in April, which mentions football tickets for Keir Starmer, Damian Collins, Theresa Coffey, Justin Tomlinson, Brendan Clarke-Smith, and Michael Gove. https://archive.ph/OBY6i
Plus there are various concert tickets and Brit Awards.
I imagine that shifted as the political balance changed, or was expected to change.
I'm not sure how timing of payments vs the event date works; that will be in the Register of Interests, whenever it comes out.
AIUI the concerts were on 21st and 22nd June, a fortnight before the election, with Parliament very much dissolved and an obvious electoral benefit accruing to any candidate being pictured at the event, especially in the very comfy seats at someone else’s expense.
So my point is, that when Mr Starmer posted photos of himself at the event, he was incurring £4,000 of election-related spending, which needs to be seen in that context rather than just as hospitality afforded to a sitting MP. Because, on those dates, he wasn’t a sitting MP but a Parliamentary candidate.
Yes, I can see why the Premier League wants to spend their money entertaining ministers and potential ministers. Good luck with that.
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
VP taking over as candidate after previous President dropped out? Activists very unhappy about perceived pro-war* stance of incumbent. Slippery and dishonest Republican opponent. Convention being held in Chicago.
* War not involving American servicemen this time around, of course
First, the VP had not 'taken over as candidate' - he was engaged in a bitter three way fight for the nomination in a party split down the middle over Vietnam. Only for the most popular contender to be assassinated.
Second, and currently, the vast majority of Democratic activists are enthusiastically in board with an already decided ticket. As is the retiring President.
Thirdly, their then GOP opponent was at the height of his political ability. As opposed to on the brink of senility.
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
Labour ran a campaign based on "We are not the conservatives" no optimistic vision I saw...they won
None of the parties have any great vision as to how to make the future better. We have this tsunami of commentary about every last detail of policy, but that noise drowns out any actual thought.
The financial markets are the clearest example of this - everyone's saying the same thing and nobody really understands the markets any more. That's not because they're daft, but rather that the markets are the chaos of a million random voices.
The noise is the problem. There needs to be some cost associated with actions - and I don't think that the social disapproval cost works.
@MarqueeMark I've noticed a disturbing absence of bees and butterflies in my garden this year - are you trapping fewer moths?
It was a REALLY bad year first half to the year - cold, wet and windy are awful conditions to run a moth trap. Carried on that way until mid-July, when numbers picked up some. Still large gaps in the species list though. The micromoths are
I have only had one confirmed new species for the garden this year (which was probably a migrant - very few of those too, considering there have been periods of warm weather coming up from Africa). Recent years I have had 20-30 additions to the garden list. They were always going to get more difficult as all the low-hanging fruit have been bagged. The Box Tree Moths however continue their advance across the SW. Global warming at its most obvious.
The butterflies are well down. Haven't seen a Fritillary yet this year. Nor (back to the moths) a Hummingbird Hawkmoth. Had three together in one small patch last year.
Badenoch is a talented speaker and very articulate. I am coming to the view though, that she does not apply that talent in a way that shouts “party leader.”
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
Is anyone interested in rebuilding the Tory voter coalition? It's a party of and for wealthy pensioners. It's neither use nor ornament to any other significant fraction of the electorate.
For now, if Labour whacks up taxes on the middle aged and strikes result from Labour's ending the ballots threshold and the boats still come unchecked the Tories will start to appeal beyond their pensioner core vote again.
Truss. Did not do the pensioner core vote any good, in terms of the impact on the new cohorts of pensioners. They aren't forgetting that in a hurry.
Given Labour have now taken away most of their winter fuel allowance and the proposed social care cap they are
FWIW I'm a pensioner in a fairly prosperous area, and know a lot of pensioners who have lost out. I don't know anyone who grumbles about the means-testing, as the previous arrangement was seen as welcome but indefensible.
An interesting piece about links being built between US evangelicals / Right and a long-term undeclared group hosted in the House of Lords described as "anti-Islam", with several peers (Baroness Cox, Lord Pearson, Lord Rannoch) and with Christian Concern and various right / far-right figures (eg Anne-Marie Waters, Gerard Batten, Alan Craig).
Warning: it's Hope Not Hate house style, which is detailed, and piling detail on detail, therefore long.
The question is how correct are they with their conclusions and implications. I think "yes, definitely worrying stuff, but there are a couple of 'buts'".
I do think Lords Reform could help somewhat on this kind of question.
Nigelb asked: "What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW."
To start with, these three: 1. A sitting vice president nominee. 2. A nominee chosen by a few party leaders, rather than winning in the usual way. 3. The near certainty of violent demonstrations, anti-Vietnam War then, anti-Israel now.
See my reply to Robert, Jim.
Your (2) is just Republican spin rather than reality. If Harris weren't the choice of her party, there would have been some sort of contest (which was actually desired by "a few party leaders"). That idea got zero traction.
And the demonstrations aren't even vaguely comparable to '68, which had seen rioting in a hundred cities against the Vietnam war.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
I've rarely seen so many numbers in one sentence.
Check out Judge Engoron’s in the Trump fraud trial.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
Labour ran a campaign based on "We are not the conservatives" no optimistic vision I saw...they won
You can't look at the next election exclusively through the prism of the last. I suspect Labour will have a more coherent notion of what they will do if re-elected - the Conservatives in July had nothing.
Of course there will be an element of passing judgement on the Government's record but I suspect the next election will be more forward-looking in terms of what we can expect in the years 2028-32 than the last election which was primarily a judgement on the Conservative Party from 2010 and especially from 2016.
Saw my first large spider in the house this year today as a precursor to so-called Spider season, where Randy males look to breed and sometimes make the ultimate sacrifice, glass over him, card underneath him and out he goes to sneak back in via the breathing gaps in the brickwork.
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
Labour ran a campaign based on "We are not the conservatives" no optimistic vision I saw...they won
This is part of the problem for the Conservatives. The Toryphobic vote will probably always be a thing; indeed often a thing of quite priapic engorgement. No amount of detoxification will get rid of it altogether.
Even when Labour had a landslide majority and was deeply unpopular because of the Iraq war, the Lib Dem strategy was to 'decaptitate' Tories, including many of the moderates.
But there is, sadly, no real anti-Labour equivalent. Voters may turn against them for one election cycle, but there's no long-term campaigning or mass activism that is generically anti-Labour.
I'd dearly love such a thing to exist, but it simply doesn't.
WH24. Even though I’m relaxed given I think Harris will win the PV by over 5 pts and therefore has about a million paths in the EC I’ve done a deep dive into the states to see how that’s looking. Please ignore the following if you don’t value rigorous grinding sweat-infused ‘bottoms up’ analysis.
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
I think Trump will win AZ and MI. Given that - if Harris wins PA she still likely wins overall - correct?
AZ is going to be tough given the presence of an abortion referendum on the ballot. Every time there's been one of these, turnout has been through the roof - largely because young women have come out in far greater than normal numbers. That group is manna from heaven for Democrats.
Given the border mess, AZ should have been an easy pickup for the Republicans. Instead it's going to be - at best for them - a very close run thing.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2 with Tory MPs. Like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
One problem is that no-one really knows where the 121 Tory MPs are on the political spectrum (within normal Tory limits).
Indeed and I would expect the majority are leaning to the centre and away from the extremes of the right
I don't think any of the candidates represent an extreme of the right but, that aside, do you think, Big G, that the priority should be a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition (i.e. a move away from weak Johnson and timid Sunak)?
Very much so but not a Farage tribute act
But who of the six represent that?
The choices are poor but Cleverly or Tugendhat are probably better than the rest
I think you are contradicting yourself Big G.
You agree that the Cons need a leader with the balls and courage to make their case and attack the opposition. There is no way Tugendat is that. Neither is Stride. Cleverly might be I suppose, not sure. I'm not convinced Patel is smart enough. Or Jenrick.
So there is one left - who also coincidentally is the one Labour fears most. Badenoch.
Is she really "the one Labour fears most"? She strikes me as a dullard. Her appeal/fear factor must be lost on me for some reason.
Kemi is certainly timing her cavalry charge very late if she's going to make one. At the moment she gives me the impression of having fallen out with Gove's dark forces brigade, therefore being on the receiving end of dirty tricks, and being a bit on the back foot because of it all. Who knows, she could still become a force in the campaign.
Going on holiday to avoid the hustings is hardly leadership qualities
Mrs J works like the devil. She works really hard, and generally loves her work. Because of her position and role, it can be hard to organise time off for holidays. But she needs to take a break occasionally, and there is always something urgent at work that needs doing.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
(*) Work other people do is always urgent.
Not sure your comment about as a pensioner I can go on holiday anytime I like is relevant, not least because I worked full time in employment and my own businesses from 1962 to 2009, had a family of 3 children, but was not standing for a position that leads possibly to Prime Minister, especially when the actual Prime Minister cancelled his holidays
It certainly did not go down well at the hustings
I don't think I've ever had much of an issue on here with you, but your comment really struck me, particularly at this time. I want a PM who will be there when important things happen; but also one who is so not burnt out from not taking holidays that they make (even) worse decisions.
People need holidays; even PMs. And they should have enough trust in their teams to make good decisions in anything that are not of national importance. More so, when they have young families. I assume that you took holidays?
Thatcher was LOTO or PM between 1975 and 1990 - 15 years. Her children were in their twenties at the start of that period, but even so, are you saying she should never have been able to take a holiday? Because there would (if she had been PM in the Internet age) decisions that needed to be made when she was on hliday.
It's an impossible call for a politician to make. *IF* she booked the holidays before the hustings were announced, good on her, IMV. You can bet there will be people missing the hustings because they had pre-arranged holidays.
Saw my first large spider in the house this year today as a precursor to so-called Spider season, where Randy males look to breed and sometimes make the ultimate sacrifice, glass over him, card underneath him and out he goes to sneak back in via the breathing gaps in the brickwork.
I don’t mind them, but they terrify my wife.
Some people swear by conkers being a deterrent to the Giant House Spider. I've put them down, but the mouse makes off with them at dead of night (with a "what the hell is that din?" racket).
Off topic: As someone who was living in Chicago in 1968*, I should tell you that the convention that year was not a great success for the Democratic Party. There are enough similarities this year to that 1968 convention year, so that this convention, too, might not be good for the Democrats.
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
What similarities do you see with '68 ? I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
VP taking over as candidate after previous President dropped out? Activists very unhappy about perceived pro-war* stance of incumbent. Slippery and dishonest Republican opponent. Convention being held in Chicago.
* War not involving American servicemen this time around, of course
First, the VP had not 'taken over as candidate' - he was engaged in a bitter three way fight for the nomination in a party split down the middle over Vietnam. Only for the most popular contender to be assassinated.
Second, and currently, the vast majority of Democratic activists are enthusiastically in board with an already decided ticket. As is the retiring President.
Thirdly, their then GOP opponent was at the height of his political ability. As opposed to on the brink of senility.
But I'll grant you Chicago.
Oh come on, I was trying to force the analogy, and I think you should have given me credit for that.
You'll notice I didn't mention a number of the other similarities: such as the new Democratic candidates having odd names, and a Kennedy having died* on the campaign trail.
* Granted, in the case of RFK Jr it was merely metaphorical rather than actual.
An interesting piece about links being built between US evangelicals / Right and a long-term undeclared group hosted in the House of Lords described as "anti-Islam", with several peers (Baroness Cox, Lord Pearson, Lord Rannoch) and with Christian Concern and various right / far-right figures (eg Anne-Marie Waters, Gerard Batten, Alan Craig).
Warning: it's Hope Not Hate house style, which is detailed, and piling detail on detail, therefore long.
The question is how correct are they with their conclusions and implications. I think "yes, definitely worrying stuff, but there are a couple of 'buts'".
I do think Lords Reform could help somewhat on this kind of question.
A pedant corrects: "Lord Pearson" is Baron Pearson of Rannoch. So two, not three.
Cleverly certainly could win if he got to the membership, although given this poll was commissioned by the Cleverly campaign would be a bit wary.
His problem will be getting to the last 2, like Mordaunt who found herself squeezed in the final rounds in 2022 with the ERG and right going to Truss and the liberal and One Nation wing going to Sunak, Cleverly may find the ERG and right goes to Jenrick and Badenoch and to a lesser extent now Patel and the liberal and One Nation wing to Tugendhat and Stride
The key is the 121 conservative mps and which group wants to see the party back to credibility or sink down the ERG and right of centre path
On your view surely the party has credibility now under the liberal Sunak and One Nation Hunt?
BigG is talking about potential votes. Follow the ERG / attract Reform voter solution and the Tory party will be rejecting a lot of the centre / middle of the road voters.
Possibly but the biggest voteshare shift in July was Tory to Reform, Reform up 11% on the BXP's 3% in 2019 to 14%. Labour were up just 2% on the 32% they got in 2019 GB wide to 34% and the LDs up just 1% on the 11% they got in 2019 to 12% (albeit Labour did pick up a few more Tories than that given leakage to the Greens who were up 3%, though in Scotland Labour also picked up SNP votes)
Just to examine this in a little more detail.
According to YouGov, 53% of 2019 Conservative voters stayed with the Conservatives, 25% went to Reform, 10% to Labour and 7% to the LDs. That's your 11% vote shift.
However, more going on than you might think - only 71% of 2019 Labour voters voted Labour this time, 10% voted Green and 8% LD. Only 49% of the 2019 LD vote stayed with the party, 30% voted Labour and 10% Conservative.
Might be interesting to see how 2019 non-voters (including first time voters in 2024) split but we can assume it was friendlier to Labour and the Greens than the Conservatives.
Comments
But for it to sink outright? That seems ... odd.
From the perspective of now, it's obvious where those right places are- very crudely, Nice Britain, aided by the Conservatives forgetting that "The Nasty Party" is something that they are meant to be living down.
When it's memoirs time, I'd love to know how conscious that move was, because it was blooming effective.
She likes debating culture war topics. Great. Can she point to any great success in running her department, or a vision for the conservatism of the future? I think if they choose Badenoch they’re choosing someone who might give them a bit of a sugar rush at PMQs, but who I’m not convinced has what it takes to build back their electoral coalition.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cj621r0xn67o
NTW hire cost used to be £215k per week.
https://x.com/onestpress/status/1825542502101008876
(*Currently 64)
For the reason that some PBers are loath to give Radio Musko ANYTHING including a humble click!
Surely Starmer wasn’t an MP in June, and the cost of the tickets should be treated as part of his campaign expenses?
Very limited storage space in the place, so LOTS of moving various signs to & frow, designed for different convention speakers and other agenda items. Lost several pounds that week!
Whole point of national conventions - then and now - is propagandizing the (hopefully massive) TV audience. With the delegates being equivalent of in-studio audience, thus all the sign-waving AND thus sign-schlepping.
So would-be Sen. McKay is basically blowing smoke up his own fundament, along with your's and mine.
Every living Democratic President speaking or, in Carter's case, represented. Unlike Trump, who didn't have the support of much, if any, of the old Republican party.
It's going to be an important 4 days.
And there's a limit on posting pictures.
Mind you none of them inspire me but someone will win and then - who knows ?
Kemi's position is not by itself inimical to building vote-winning coalition for the Tories. But she needs to be seen to be interested in all the other things a government needs to do.
More interested in her policy ideas, than her attendance at every single hustings.
The last three losing Democrat Presidential nominees: Clinton H, Kerry, Gore.
The last three Democrats elected President: Biden, Obama, Clinton B.
I worry that Harris feels like a better fit with the first group than with the second group.
All those three came across as pretty wooden, flatfooted campaigners.
The 2024 model Harris is way different from that.
Not having to define herself against a fellow Democrat probably helps with that. The primary process is not always a constructive one.
Although given his, and Cleverly's ability to grasp control of a situation it's probably a good thing they weren't in office when the riots started.
We're in that state now: she's on holiday from midweek, and there's lots of urgent (*) work that needs either delaying, passing off to other people, or putting on the 'not-a-task' pile. The other option is working the holiday - which she would get compensated for - and then burning out later.
And then there's the effect on the family: our son would be devastated if our family holiday - one of only one or two a year he gets with mum - became yet another road trip with dad. Not that he doesn't enjoy the latter - I hope he does! - but because he misses mum.
Saying Kemi took a holiday to 'avoid the hustings' during school holidays seems a little off from a pensioner who can go on holiday whenever they like.
(*) Work other people do is always urgent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPU08mdN75c
So the core fact is if she holds the rustbelt she wins the election. This is the backstop outcome. It’s not what she wants, there’s barely room to swing a cat, but she’d take it. Better, though, is to also hold or partially hold the sunbelt. Doing that creates some space. Eg if she loses GA but holds NV/AZ she can afford to lose MI or WI, although not both, so long as she doesn’t drop PA. If she holds just one of AZ/NV it’s still ok but it’s squeaky bum time. Holding AZ means she can afford to lose a rustbelt state so long as that state is WI. However if she holds only NV she’s back to having to cling like grim death to the whole of the rustbelt.
NV adds no value then? It does because what if she flips NC? This is more likely than her holding GA per the current betting. She’s 2.5 for NC and 2.8 for GA. Point is, if she flips NC, having won NV but lost GA/AZ, she can upend conventional wisdom by winning without PA. If she hadn’t got NV, even having flipped NC she would still require PA. That’s NV making its presence felt in no uncertain terms. A mere 6 votes but it could decide everything. Finally, a long shot that’s within the Overton window, if she wins NC and also FL she can lose all of Biden’s swing states, every last one of them, rustbelt and sunbelt, and still squeeze home by 272/266. There’ll be ructions down at Mar-a-Lago if that happens.
Trade organisations in the beer industry have expressed fears over incoming fees attached to the production and importation of bottles in the UK, which 'inevitably will lead to price increases' on bevvies
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/price-beer-set-soar-boffins-33494056
He has had a wretched couple of weeks. Combined with the Convention bounce that Harris/Walz likely get, the Republicans are going to be desperately working out where the hell to spend their limited funds. (I suspect the Democrats will have a tidy Convention fundraising spike as well.)
It certainly did not go down well at the hustings
Kursk is that way... What do you mean, you didn't read the small print?
(*I left before the convention started, since I thought it nearly certain that there would be trouble. But I was sharing an apartment with a local reporter, who told me about some of the incidents, later. For example, he was driving in a beat-up old car, which was attacked by both the Chicago police, who beat on it, and demonstrators, who three rocks at the car. I don't recall which was first, but one attack followed immediately after the other.)
PMSL 😂
And as a self-employed pharmacist for 20 years I know all about the difficulties of arranging holidays. Had to make sure a locum would be on site, and if he or she cancelled at the last minute, that was us sunk.
I gave some support in a couple of seats, both of which we won from the Tories - but just a token amount in my own patch -not even chasing out the vote on polling day.
I think the Lib Dem vote will still be there next year in the County elections.
Edit: a fair proportion of the few butterflies looked very much like Meadow Browns.
The scale of the anti-Tory collusion (calling it 'tactical voting' is wholly inadequate) suggests a level of organisation never before seen.
Remember the Smithsonian boasting about 'swapping votes' years ago? I suspect that particular sickness has spread far beyond Bedford.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001230
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001280
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001159
Given it was the result of "outrage" whipped up by the extreme right, I'm not convinced it would have been whipped up if the Conservatives had held off calling the GE.
Having said that the election itself was very close, Nixon beat Humphrey by just 43.4% to 42.7% with 13.5% voting for Wallace. Though Nixon had a bigger margin in the EC
Harris works best, one might say, in an environment where she can be aggressive and punch hard without the other side having an opportunity to fight back on equal terms. Her questioning of Kavanaugh for example in the SC confirmation hearing. It is what you would expect of someone who comes from a DA background in the States.
Where she is less good at - and where the problems are likely to arise - is when she actually has to go toe to toe with someone who can counterpunch on equal terms. Hence her issues in 2019. She also is quite rusty at running in competitive campaigns - the last one she ran in properly (as opposed to one someone's coattails) was a decade ago.
I'm seeing previous few, FWIW.
None of them fear Priti as her negatives are so high, even though she is probably the most charismatic of the leadership contenders it is almost a negative charisma for many
I have only had one confirmed new species for the garden this year (which was probably a migrant - very few of those too, considering there have been periods of warm weather coming up from Africa). Recent years I have had 20-30 additions to the garden list. They were always going to get more difficult as all the low-hanging fruit have been bagged. The Box Tree Moths however continue their advance across the SW. Global warming at its most obvious.
The butterflies are well down. Haven't seen a Fritillary yet this year. Nor (back to the moths) a Hummingbird Hawkmoth. Had three together in one small patch last year.
If the Conservatives are going to be spending the next four years getting angry about everything, they'll get nowhere slowly.
The last two elections have shown positivity and optimism will always triumph over negativity and anger. The next Conservative leader has to find reasons for people to vote Conservative, not just be anti-Labour as the anti-Labour vote has a number of other options from which to choose.
Here is an Indy piece written in April, which mentions football tickets for Keir Starmer, Damian Collins, Theresa Coffey, Justin Tomlinson, Brendan Clarke-Smith, and Michael Gove.
https://archive.ph/OBY6i
Plus there are various concert tickets and Brit Awards.
I imagine that shifted as the political balance changed, or was expected to change.
I'm not sure how timing of payments vs the event date works; that will be in the Register of Interests, whenever it comes out.
But that omits what pollls showed at the time, that had Wallace not run, his vote would have split about 2-1 for Nixon. FWIW, the Wikipedia article on the Humphrey campaign omits that point, too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Humphrey_1968_presidential_campaign#Results
Activists very unhappy about perceived pro-war* stance of incumbent.
Slippery and dishonest Republican opponent.
Convention being held in Chicago.
* War not involving American servicemen this time around, of course
These days, the UUP are essentially a diffuse collection of factions who for one reason or another can't stomach joining either the DUP or Alliance. Beattie himself was fairly liberal but down to earth - under his leadership, the party had started to inch forward, most notably getting themselves back into Westminster.
4 of their 9 MLAs are now ex-leaders, as is their single MP - so there's got to be a decent possibility that the next leader will be a retread.
If so, the obvious pick would be Mike Nesbitt, who previously spent five years as leader from 2012 until resigning after poor Assembly election results in 2017. He's also from the liberal wing - perhaps even more so than Beattie - and was formerly a TV journalist so is a good media performer. He's currently the Health minister, but as he's now in his late 60s he might not be the right choice for the long term.
This is what happens when you don't have gay copyeditors on staff...
https://x.com/fakedansavage/status/1825565459292225949
I'm seeing previous few, FWIW."
To start with, these three:
1. A sitting vice president nominee.
2. A nominee chosen by a few party leaders, rather than winning in the usual way.
3. The near certainty of violent demonstrations, anti-Vietnam War then, anti-Israel now.
This morning we had Garden Tiger moths.
Obviously no hostile CPD this time but, in some ways, the opposite policy i.e. excessive backing off from the use of force could have its own issues if rioters are encouraged to act.
So my point is, that when Mr Starmer posted photos of himself at the event, he was incurring £4,000 of election-related spending, which needs to be seen in that context rather than just as hospitality afforded to a sitting MP. Because, on those dates, he wasn’t a sitting MP but a Parliamentary candidate.
Yes, I can see why the Premier League wants to spend their money entertaining ministers and potential ministers. Good luck with that.
Second, and currently, the vast majority of Democratic activists are enthusiastically in board with an already decided ticket.
As is the retiring President.
Thirdly, their then GOP opponent was at the height of his political ability.
As opposed to on the brink of senility.
But I'll grant you Chicago.
The financial markets are the clearest example of this - everyone's saying the same thing and nobody really understands the markets any more. That's not because they're daft, but rather that the markets are the chaos of a million random voices.
The noise is the problem. There needs to be some cost associated with actions - and I don't think that the social disapproval cost works.
"A HOPE not hate investigation has found and exposed the New Issues Group, a secret anti-Muslim group at the heart of the British establishment."
https://hopenothate.org.uk/2023/02/24/investigation-the-new-issues-group/
Warning: it's Hope Not Hate house style, which is detailed, and piling detail on detail, therefore long.
The question is how correct are they with their conclusions and implications. I think "yes, definitely worrying stuff, but there are a couple of 'buts'".
I do think Lords Reform could help somewhat on this kind of question.
Your (2) is just Republican spin rather than reality. If Harris weren't the choice of her party, there would have been some sort of contest (which was actually desired by "a few party leaders").
That idea got zero traction.
And the demonstrations aren't even vaguely comparable to '68, which had seen rioting in a hundred cities against the Vietnam war.
FTFY.
Do you have the link?
Thanks.
Of course there will be an element of passing judgement on the Government's record but I suspect the next election will be more forward-looking in terms of what we can expect in the years 2028-32 than the last election which was primarily a judgement on the Conservative Party from 2010 and especially from 2016.
I don’t mind them, but they terrify my wife.
This is part of the problem for the Conservatives. The Toryphobic vote will probably always be a thing; indeed often a thing of quite priapic engorgement. No amount of detoxification will get rid of it altogether.
Even when Labour had a landslide majority and was deeply unpopular because of the Iraq war, the Lib Dem strategy was to 'decaptitate' Tories, including many of the moderates.
But there is, sadly, no real anti-Labour equivalent. Voters may turn against them for one election cycle, but there's no long-term campaigning or mass activism that is generically anti-Labour.
I'd dearly love such a thing to exist, but it simply doesn't.
Given the border mess, AZ should have been an easy pickup for the Republicans. Instead it's going to be - at best for them - a very close run thing.
People need holidays; even PMs. And they should have enough trust in their teams to make good decisions in anything that are not of national importance. More so, when they have young families. I assume that you took holidays?
Thatcher was LOTO or PM between 1975 and 1990 - 15 years. Her children were in their twenties at the start of that period, but even so, are you saying she should never have been able to take a holiday? Because there would (if she had been PM in the Internet age) decisions that needed to be made when she was on hliday.
It's an impossible call for a politician to make. *IF* she booked the holidays before the hustings were announced, good on her, IMV. You can bet there will be people missing the hustings because they had pre-arranged holidays.
They can arrest them, just can’t remand them.
You'll notice I didn't mention a number of the other similarities: such as the new Democratic candidates having odd names, and a Kennedy having died* on the campaign trail.
* Granted, in the case of RFK Jr it was merely metaphorical rather than actual.