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This should help Farage be re-elected in Clacton – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    theProle said:

    Reform’s next move, if they really want to hit the big time, is to professionalise their operation and start putting down roots in local government.

    As a step towards doing that they need to be putting formal party structures in place.

    Maybe I will be surprised, but nothing in Farage’s MO suggests to me he’s able to put the hard work in to really do that.

    He is good at generating headlines but if he is really serious about turning Reform into the second party in the country it will take a lot more than name recognition and media attention.

    He did a podcast interview recently somewhere like Triggernomitary, in which he was talking about this a bit - the gist of that bit was he could see how LDs had rebuilt from councillor level, and then leveraged this to make inroads at Westminster, and he wanted Reform to do the same, upping their ground game and local councillor base to act as a springboard at the next GE.

    Obviously easier to talk the talk than walk the walk, but it shows he's certainly thinking down these lines.
    He is absolutely correct: it's very hard to break through in a First Past the Post world without local strength. During the 1980s, the Alliance polled 23-25% in General Elections, but generally underperformed that in local elections.

    It was only really with Paddy Ashdown and a laser focus on building up a local councillor base that the LibDems set themselves up for success at the national level. (Aided, of course, by the collapse of the Conservative vote in 1997.)

    Here's Reform's problem: it is led and owned by Nigel Farage. And I just don't see him prioritizing local government and local governance. If Goodwin were to take over Reform, that could change. But right now, I just don't see it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,412
    How ‘sentencing inflation’ fuelled England’s prisons crisis
    https://www.ft.com/content/9c046f9b-faaa-4766-bf1b-4149926558f2 (£££)

    Something that has previously been mentioned on PB. Sentences have been ratcheted up over the years, with no obvious benefit to society.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    Somewhere just a bit North of London.
    So you refer to your Southwold* house as your retreat in The North? :wink:

    *apologies if that's not you, but I think you've mentioned it before
    Yep that is me. My wife is there at the moment. She is Scottish so Southwold might just qualify as the South. So goes there to escape from me.
    Don't suggest in Southwold that you're in the South. It's East Anglia.
    Nobody who lives on Southwold however comes from East Anglia, we are all luvvies from the Home Counties.
    Locals can’t afford to buy a house in Southwold.
    It is somewhat on an enclave. They haven't built a wall around it yet though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    What actually is a 'middle-class dinner party'? (I've never been to one and don't know anyone who has.) I've always assumed they involve sitting around a dining table all night (no lounging around on sofas or milling about in the kitchen) while a hired caterer does all the cooking. Is that the gist?
    We occasionally have disparate groups of people (no tories or leavers though) who wouldn't normally meet each other for dinner - that's a DP I suppose. Mrs DA loves to cook and I love an audience so they serve a purpose.
    They wouldn't tell you if they were.
    We never have meat or alcohol in the house so they wouldn't attend, even if undercover.
    Of all your posts about various vehicle technical specs, and air-fuel ratios, and crankshafts and so forth, this post is the singularly most incomprehensible of them all.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    You go to Robert Dyas and get a grim-meter. Put it on the dashboard (you can get an app for it now) and drive north. When the level of grim-ness enters the red zone, you are in The Proper North.


    I find it starts going crazy just north of Mill Hill. I've never dared to see what happens if I actually leave the M25.
    I had an artificial horizon fitted. Works a treat by indicating the exact latitude at which levelling up is required.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    How ‘sentencing inflation’ fuelled England’s prisons crisis
    https://www.ft.com/content/9c046f9b-faaa-4766-bf1b-4149926558f2 (£££)

    Something that has previously been mentioned on PB. Sentences have been ratcheted up over the years, with no obvious benefit to society.

    Well; you need to make sure that prison places keep pace with prison population. And that hasn't happened. It's cheaper to simply mandate longer sentences.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    I’d hate to be a HP executive past and present, they’ll will have their accounts pored over.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    sarissa said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    Who the flip still has dinner parties anyway?

    Isn't that one of the indigenous ways of life that has been lost?
    Good point.

    He's so out of touch he thinks people have dinner parties.

    He'll be posting about prawn cocktails next.
    Blue Nun or Mateus Rose, anyone?
    Criticism of Goodwin will see you sent to the Black Tower.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Sweden used to be one of the safest places to live in the world. Wonder what happened."

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1825478939092914416

    If he bothered to compare it to next door Norway, then the analysis would be a lot more interesting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997

    Kamala & Walz have been backed off the boards on Betfair. All the 1.01 is gone. Coincidentally, the Dem convention starts today.

    Oh hallo, there's some 1.01 back now, if anyone is interested.
    Is this worth the lay price for pennies? There must be more than a 1% chance of things going horribly wrong in the next 72 hours?

    For example, the official platform published at democrats.org calls for the re-election of Joe Biden.
    https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/19/democrats-release-party-platform-in-chicago-calls-for-reelecting-joe-biden/

    Presumably there needs to be a process to amend the motion..?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    On dinner parties, my wife and I are on a "circuit" around Highgate/Muswell Hill but it's basically just hosting every few months and going to some other random that's hosting every few weeks. It's a good way to meet people and make friends locally, when we went to the first one we didn't know what to expect and decided that if people started trading err, car keys, we'd make a swift exit but it's not that kind of party circuit.

    On the whole politics rarely makes he discussion other than the generalised "everything and all politicians are shit" comment. The most popular subjects are kids, football/cricket (for the husbands) and holidays in that order. I can only remember a few times when politics has come up seriously and even then it was pretty milquetoast stuff like "down with the Tories" and "Labour will just put up taxes" etc...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Oh crap.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Bloody hell. Irate HP shareholder?
  • Well, the middle class dinner party thing seems to have stirred PB this morning.

    At last, a subject we all have extensive knowledge of!
    Not me, I am working class.
    Likewise. I was born working class but suspected I might be moving towards middle-classhood. But I've never held nor attended a dinner party and am unlikely ever to do so, so apparently not. Working class I remain.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Sweden used to be one of the safest places to live in the world. Wonder what happened."

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1825478939092914416

    If he bothered to compare it to next door Norway, then the analysis would be a lot more interesting.
    There's nothing that remarkable in the homicide stats for Sweden over the past two decades, which seems to undermine whatever point Goodwin think's he is making: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1315123/sweden-homicide-rate/

    If the point is that all the immigrants are killing each other or natural born Swedes then the natural born Swedes must have really gone off homicide themselves to balance the books. There may have been a big switch to gun homicides over the more traditional axes etc, of course :wink:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    MaxPB said:

    On dinner parties, my wife and I are on a "circuit" around Highgate/Muswell Hill but it's basically just hosting every few months and going to some other random that's hosting every few weeks. It's a good way to meet people and make friends locally, when we went to the first one we didn't know what to expect and decided that if people started trading err, car keys, we'd make a swift exit but it's not that kind of party circuit.

    On the whole politics rarely makes he discussion other than the generalised "everything and all politicians are shit" comment. The most popular subjects are kids, football/cricket (for the husbands) and holidays in that order. I can only remember a few times when politics has come up seriously and even then it was pretty milquetoast stuff like "down with the Tories" and "Labour will just put up taxes" etc...

    That was very much my experience when I was in North London too.

    Topics of conversation were much more likely to be: (a) which nurseries have places; (b) why tickets to see Arsenal are so expensive; (c) why The Hundred even exists, and (d) which ski resorts are small child friendly (which pretty virulent splits between those who love Club Med, and those who think it shit).

    Politics (like religion) is very rarely discussed, because everyone is different, and mostly people like to get along.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,412
    Sandpit said:

    Kamala & Walz have been backed off the boards on Betfair. All the 1.01 is gone. Coincidentally, the Dem convention starts today.

    Oh hallo, there's some 1.01 back now, if anyone is interested.
    Is this worth the lay price for pennies? There must be more than a 1% chance of things going horribly wrong in the next 72 hours?

    For example, the official platform published at democrats.org calls for the re-election of Joe Biden.
    https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/19/democrats-release-party-platform-in-chicago-calls-for-reelecting-joe-biden/

    Presumably there needs to be a process to amend the motion..?
    The 1.01 has been taken (again). It may be that some came from punters getting out in order to invest on the horses rather than guess on which of the next few days Betfair will settle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch missing in superyacht sinking"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Bloody hell. Irate HP shareholder?
    She made some allegations about people he'd managed to upset that I'd rather not repeat on the board. She's quite well connected, so doubt she's talking complete shit, but I'd rather not cast nasturtiums at anyone.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Bloody hell. Irate HP shareholder?
    She made some allegations about people he'd managed to upset that I'd rather not repeat on the board. She's quite well connected, so doubt she's talking complete shit, but I'd rather not cast nasturtiums at anyone.
    Ironic, seeing as (if true) he is now sleeping with the fishes... :(
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    edited August 19
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    On dinner parties, my wife and I are on a "circuit" around Highgate/Muswell Hill but it's basically just hosting every few months and going to some other random that's hosting every few weeks. It's a good way to meet people and make friends locally, when we went to the first one we didn't know what to expect and decided that if people started trading err, car keys, we'd make a swift exit but it's not that kind of party circuit.

    On the whole politics rarely makes he discussion other than the generalised "everything and all politicians are shit" comment. The most popular subjects are kids, football/cricket (for the husbands) and holidays in that order. I can only remember a few times when politics has come up seriously and even then it was pretty milquetoast stuff like "down with the Tories" and "Labour will just put up taxes" etc...

    That was very much my experience when I was in North London too.

    Topics of conversation were much more likely to be: (a) which nurseries have places; (b) why tickets to see Arsenal are so expensive; (c) why The Hundred even exists, and (d) which ski resorts are small child friendly (which pretty virulent splits between those who love Club Med, and those who think it shit).

    Politics (like religion) is very rarely discussed, because everyone is different, and mostly people like to get along.
    Yes, nursery and primary schools come up a lot. I think the usual crowd now all have kids between 0 and 7 so it's a great place to get advice for us on what schools we should be thinking about for my daughter in a couple of years.

    We have the exact same holiday discussions, my wife and I are very much club med or warm winters. Despite being Swiss she has no great love of the ski slopes any more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Andy_JS said:

    "British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch missing in superyacht sinking"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Sounds like a case for Inspector Montalbano
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    What actually is a 'middle-class dinner party'? (I've never been to one and don't know anyone who has.) I've always assumed they involve sitting around a dining table all night (no lounging around on sofas or milling about in the kitchen) while a hired caterer does all the cooking. Is that the gist?
    I think nowadays it’s known as going to a restaurant with friends. The UK food revolution (one of Leon’s faves, RIP), insofar as it exists, is about eating out not cooking at home. Probably passed Goodwin, Farage etc by.
    We invite people round for food all the time. Even by the time you provide 3 courses and wine for 6, it is cheaper than 2 in many restaurants. Plus the cooking can be fun.

    I serve half a bottle of champagne per head and a bottle per person, per course thereafter seems to work. Never seem to get complaints about anything.....
    A bottle per person per course??!!!!
    If you cater to that level, you never run out. Plus some of the pros can keep that pace or very near.
    Yup, you can never have too much wine in the plan, and nothing’s worse than scraping around for another bottle of something close when one runs out. If you start at 7pm and finish at 4am, it’s not particularly difficult to see three empty bottles each.
    We once (about 30 years ago) held a dinner party where the guests cleared the wine rack. Fortunately, the corner shop was open, and I nipped across for extra supplies several times during the evening. By the end of the evening, the shop’s wine shelf was looking quite bare. Before our next dinner party, we invested in a larger wine rack.
    I mean we all have these stories but once when in Hong Kong the Mandarin had an "all you can drink champagne brunch" so we carefully ambushed them arriving at opening time minus one minute and stayed until bottles of Veuve Clicquot (for it was hers) lined the walls of the place as far as you can see. The staff loved it because what did they care.

    For planning purposes for events it's usually a third of a bottle per person (half if you're nervous) and that usually works.

    For dps I would have 2x bottles per person but plenty in reserve. But then again I mix a mean gin beforehand.
    The limitless brunches of the Middle East and Asia are definitely something to behold.

    Ambushing them as they open, and staying until they kick you out screaming, is really kind of the point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    This is just staggering.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/debt-ridden-council-accuses-solar-tycoon-of-blowing-150m-of-its-cash/ar-AA1oV3Xg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=31590d05a8434b1497fcabd6b1b749e0&ei=43

    A debt-ridden council has accused a Dubai-based solar tycoon of blowing £150 million of its cash on his luxury lifestyle, including by purchasing his own yacht and private jet.

    A High Court lawsuit by Thurrock Council in Essex, which declared itself bankrupt in 2022, claims Liam Kavanagh spent £13.7 million on a new yacht, £9.1 million on a private jet and another £20 million on a 232-acre country estate in Hampshire.

    The council invested some £400 million in bonds for a green energy scheme involving solar farms run by Kavanagh and his company Rockfire Capital, and racked up debts totalling more than £1.4 billion.

    Why do councils think they can do asset/investment management? A graduate hire in any fund would tell you those bonds are worthless after about 5 minutes of research.
    Sadly, councils are not filled with people with extensive financial experience.

    (Anecdote alert: when a Fund Manager, I was involved in a pitch to a British county council. I was asked what return we could guarantee, and I said "look, I can't guarantee anything. we're an equity fund, and we're in the business of taking risks, and - so far - we've done a pretty good job, but I can't guarantee that will continue." We lost the pitch to a fund manager who promised returns.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    edited August 19
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Bloody hell. Irate HP shareholder?
    She made some allegations about people he'd managed to upset that I'd rather not repeat on the board. She's quite well connected, so doubt she's talking complete shit, but I'd rather not cast nasturtiums at anyone.
    "Reports in local media said that a waterspout had hit the vessel."
    Apparently.

    There are survivors, and the wreck is only in 50m of water, so a bomb would be pretty difficult to cover up ?

    Reportedly, there were severe storms in the locality, FWIW.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    edited August 19

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    On dinner parties, my wife and I are on a "circuit" around Highgate/Muswell Hill but it's basically just hosting every few months and going to some other random that's hosting every few weeks. It's a good way to meet people and make friends locally, when we went to the first one we didn't know what to expect and decided that if people started trading err, car keys, we'd make a swift exit but it's not that kind of party circuit.

    On the whole politics rarely makes he discussion other than the generalised "everything and all politicians are shit" comment. The most popular subjects are kids, football/cricket (for the husbands) and holidays in that order. I can only remember a few times when politics has come up seriously and even then it was pretty milquetoast stuff like "down with the Tories" and "Labour will just put up taxes" etc...

    That was very much my experience when I was in North London too.

    Topics of conversation were much more likely to be: (a) which nurseries have places; (b) why tickets to see Arsenal are so expensive; (c) why The Hundred even exists, and (d) which ski resorts are small child friendly (which pretty virulent splits between those who love Club Med, and those who think it shit).

    Politics (like religion) is very rarely discussed, because everyone is different, and mostly people like to get along.
    That sounds incredibly boring. Too boring to be true, in fact. You are actually all discussing secret middle-class plans for unlimited immigration, aren't you? It's OK, you can tell me. I won't grass you up to any of my working class friends. Promise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,612
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    A friend of mine texted me an hour ago to say that it was suspected that a bomb had gone off on the yacht.
    Bloody hell. Irate HP shareholder?
    She made some allegations about people he'd managed to upset that I'd rather not repeat on the board. She's quite well connected, so doubt she's talking complete shit, but I'd rather not cast nasturtiums at anyone.
    "Reports in local media said that a waterspout had hit the vessel."
    Apparently.

    There are survivors, and the wreck is only in 50m of water, so a bomb would be pretty difficult to cover up ?
    Good afternoon

    The owners have made a statement that the vessel encountered severe weather and subsequently sank near Palermo.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch missing in superyacht sinking"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Sounds like a case for Inspector Montalbano
    This would be the perfect plot for an Andrea Camilleri novel.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Andy_JS said:

    It's very simple: either immigration has to hugely come down before the next election, or Farage will be PM.

    More likely Jenrick after a deal with Farage though I suspect the economy will be more the decider for the median voter than immigration, important though that is for the right of centre voter
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Well, the middle class dinner party thing seems to have stirred PB this morning.

    At last, a subject we all have extensive knowledge of!
    Not me, I am working class.
    Likewise. I was born working class but suspected I might be moving towards middle-classhood. But I've never held nor attended a dinner party and am unlikely ever to do so, so apparently not. Working class I remain.
    I am so working class, last two dinner parties I attended, one required me to wear a morning suit, the other one mandated a cummerbund be worn with my suit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    I am no sailor but even I know that squalls can arise out of nowhere in what are otherwise billiard table calm seas. Bomb on a boat? I mean not to say no way but seems unlikely. What's the initiation method? Or was there a timer in counting down and a red and a blue wire that someone got wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    Somewhere just a bit North of London.
    So you refer to your Southwold* house as your retreat in The North? :wink:

    *apologies if that's not you, but I think you've mentioned it before
    Yep that is me. My wife is there at the moment. She is Scottish so Southwold might just qualify as the South. So goes there to escape from me.
    Don't suggest in Southwold that you're in the South. It's East Anglia.
    Nobody who lives on Southwold however comes from East Anglia, we are all luvvies from the Home Counties.
    Long ago I ran, on a temporary basis, a pharmacy in Aldeburgh for a couple of weeks. There was a clear difference between the genuine locals and the weekenders, some of whom were actually full-time residents.
    Ah but Aldeburgh just aspires to be Southwold.
    Aldeburgh is more for arty types with the Brittan connection and only has a stony beach.

    Southwold has a sandy beach and a pier and basically becomes Chelsea on Sea in July and August from the accents when we last went there
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,612
    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    This is the yacht

    https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-22774/bayesian.htm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    TOPPING said:

    I am no sailor but even I know that squalls can arise out of nowhere in what are otherwise billiard table calm seas. Bomb on a boat? I mean not to say no way but seems unlikely. What's the initiation method? Or was there a timer in counting down and a red and a blue wire that someone got wrong.

    That would be trivially easy with current tech.
    Covering it up would be far more difficult.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    This is just staggering.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/debt-ridden-council-accuses-solar-tycoon-of-blowing-150m-of-its-cash/ar-AA1oV3Xg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=31590d05a8434b1497fcabd6b1b749e0&ei=43

    A debt-ridden council has accused a Dubai-based solar tycoon of blowing £150 million of its cash on his luxury lifestyle, including by purchasing his own yacht and private jet.

    A High Court lawsuit by Thurrock Council in Essex, which declared itself bankrupt in 2022, claims Liam Kavanagh spent £13.7 million on a new yacht, £9.1 million on a private jet and another £20 million on a 232-acre country estate in Hampshire.

    The council invested some £400 million in bonds for a green energy scheme involving solar farms run by Kavanagh and his company Rockfire Capital, and racked up debts totalling more than £1.4 billion.

    Why do councils think they can do asset/investment management? A graduate hire in any fund would tell you those bonds are worthless after about 5 minutes of research.
    Sadly, councils are not filled with people with extensive financial experience.

    (Anecdote alert: when a Fund Manager, I was involved in a pitch to a British county council. I was asked what return we could guarantee, and I said "look, I can't guarantee anything. we're an equity fund, and we're in the business of taking risks, and - so far - we've done a pretty good job, but I can't guarantee that will continue." We lost the pitch to a fund manager who promised returns.)
    I think a guarantee of returns should be a huge, huge red flag for anyone taking an investment product. Markets can go down as well as up and councils shouldn't be investing in any product that can make money from markets falling, the risk is way too high for taxpayer money.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am no sailor but even I know that squalls can arise out of nowhere in what are otherwise billiard table calm seas. Bomb on a boat? I mean not to say no way but seems unlikely. What's the initiation method? Or was there a timer in counting down and a red and a blue wire that someone got wrong.

    That would be trivially easy with current tech.
    Covering it up would be far more difficult.
    Talk me through it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    What actually is a 'middle-class dinner party'? (I've never been to one and don't know anyone who has.) I've always assumed they involve sitting around a dining table all night (no lounging around on sofas or milling about in the kitchen) while a hired caterer does all the cooking. Is that the gist?
    We occasionally have disparate groups of people (no tories or leavers though) who wouldn't normally meet each other for dinner - that's a DP I suppose. Mrs DA loves to cook and I love an audience so they serve a purpose.
    They wouldn't tell you if they were.
    We never have meat or alcohol in the house so they wouldn't attend, even if undercover.
    Tofu does seem to act like garlic to vampires. Just look at the indignation in some elements of PB at the very thought of having to do without their litre of blood, actual or embodied in muscle tissue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    MattW said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    I've always been intensely disappointed by how few dinner parties I've been to. Despite being a fully signed up member of the tofu eating wokerati, I just can't seem to get an invitation to these legendary soirees, which loom so large in the imaginations of chippy rightwingers like Goodwin. I would like nothing better than to luxuriate in my luxury beliefs between the cheese course and the Ferrero Rochets, perhaps comparing notes with the other guests on our inexpensive foreign born cleaners, laughing as we knowingly undermine traditional British values, or having a good old sneer at the working classes and their Bovine attachment to the nation state, but I can only assume that my invitation is held up in the post.
    I've been to a few. When I was living in Hampstead, it was like being in an episode of Desperate Housewives, sometimes.

    There is a thing of polishing your liberal credentials in affluent social groups - "look at me, aren't so inclusive".

    And several times I've noticed the social inclusion has limits. My ex from those days had a daughter with developmental disabilities. The other kids got on well with her and liked her. Was genuinely nice to see the way that even kids who barely knew here would look after her and try and include her.

    On one occasion at party we overheard a couple complaining that she made people feel bad - by being there and not being normal.

    My ex did exactly the right thing. Checked to see if the child's nappy was a bit loose, sat her down on the really, really expensive sofa (that the couple in question had bragged about), then we left when the job was done. Never spoke to them again.

    EDIT: The social climbing at those events reminded me of the dinner party scene in the book Dune. Especially the quip about claw boot marks.
    There are layers of Hampstead. I lived in South Hampstead for a few years, and my LL was a Hampstead Liberal, who's day job was running the IT end of Ceefax for the BBC as it was coming to its finish - approx 2004. He used to jog across the Heath every day for a dip in the pond, then have a naked cold shower outside in the back yard.

    Then there is rich Hampstead, with net worths in the 5s or 10s of millions, and old money Hampstead, and younger stuck in a tiny flat Hampstead, and rich husband trophy-wife Hampstead with an Aga and a manicured back garden, and oligarch Hampstead, and professional gay-couple Hampstead, and boring, successful professional Hampstead, and "schools" Hampstead, and "got to live in Hampstead" Hampstead, and more.

    Oh, and "My Dad works for the Guardian so I got a mini-column Hampstead" aka Max Gogarty. Very funny.

    Hello. I'm Max Gogarty. I'm 19 and live on top of a hill in north London.

    At the minute, I'm working in a restaurant with a bunch of lovely, funny people; writing a play; writing bits for Skins; spending any sort of money I earn on food and skinny jeans, and drinking my way to a financially blighted two-month trip to India and Thailand. Clichéd I know, but clichés are there for a reason.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/blog/2008/feb/14/skinsblog
    Amazingly Hampstead had a Tory MP until 1992, the Tories still hold 1 council seat in Hampstead Town with 1 LD. It is a very liberal area but also very wealthy
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited August 19
    People are talking as though they have been forced, via external forces, to attend dinner parties with complete strangers who insisted on talking about schools and house prices in the teeth of a desire to talk about the virtues of AV vs STV.

    Dinner parties are just groups of friends who come together to chat about what they would otherwise talk about but all sitting down and having food and drink supplied by a kindly host.

    It's a bit like hating someone for the type of driveshaft (eg 4x4) that they drive, which plenty of people do.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    This is the yacht

    https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-22774/bayesian.htm
    Yes, proper jobby with sails. Luxury yacht or superyacht makes me think of these:
    https://www.google.com/search?q=luxury+yacht&udm=2

    British(?) understatement: the page you linked has headline BAYESIAN YACHT NOT FOR CHARTER* and the * leads to "Sail yacht Bayesian is currently not believed to be available for private Charter."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    edited August 19
    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    I don't know the expression you used, and my big nautical dictionary is downstairs, but there are certainly plenty of extremely basic yachts around. I've done my time in them, in crowded and cramped conditions - think bothy but with the foundations missing and rocking in the wind down Coruisk. Very much bring your own sleeping bag. And if you want bacon and eggs off Cape Wrath it's a matter of doing it yourself and holding on as the cooker swings in its gimbals.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's very simple: either immigration has to hugely come down before the next election, or Farage will be PM.

    More likely Jenrick after a deal with Farage though I suspect the economy will be more the decider for the median voter than immigration, important though that is for the right of centre voter
    If Sunak had left "stop the boats" off his to-do list it would have been less of an issue in the GE. It wasn't an issue for Johnson who explained to us we would be welcoming "our friends" from the Indian Subcontinent to cover the Brexit jobs shortfall.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    This is just staggering.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/debt-ridden-council-accuses-solar-tycoon-of-blowing-150m-of-its-cash/ar-AA1oV3Xg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=31590d05a8434b1497fcabd6b1b749e0&ei=43

    A debt-ridden council has accused a Dubai-based solar tycoon of blowing £150 million of its cash on his luxury lifestyle, including by purchasing his own yacht and private jet.

    A High Court lawsuit by Thurrock Council in Essex, which declared itself bankrupt in 2022, claims Liam Kavanagh spent £13.7 million on a new yacht, £9.1 million on a private jet and another £20 million on a 232-acre country estate in Hampshire.

    The council invested some £400 million in bonds for a green energy scheme involving solar farms run by Kavanagh and his company Rockfire Capital, and racked up debts totalling more than £1.4 billion.

    Why do councils think they can do asset/investment management? A graduate hire in any fund would tell you those bonds are worthless after about 5 minutes of research.
    Sadly, councils are not filled with people with extensive financial experience.

    (Anecdote alert: when a Fund Manager, I was involved in a pitch to a British county council. I was asked what return we could guarantee, and I said "look, I can't guarantee anything. we're an equity fund, and we're in the business of taking risks, and - so far - we've done a pretty good job, but I can't guarantee that will continue." We lost the pitch to a fund manager who promised returns.)
    I think a guarantee of returns should be a huge, huge red flag for anyone taking an investment product. Markets can go down as well as up and councils shouldn't be investing in any product that can make money from markets falling, the risk is way too high for taxpayer money.
    You can of course guarantee principal by selling a discount bond and buying a call option with a strike of 100. And plenty of people did just that back in the day (premium = less than discount, obvs).
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,990
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    You go to Robert Dyas and get a grim-meter. Put it on the dashboard (you can get an app for it now) and drive north. When the level of grim-ness enters the red zone, you are in The Proper North.


    I find it starts going crazy just north of Mill Hill. I've never dared to see what happens if I actually leave the M25.
    The north is everything the wrong side of the tamar as any fule knos
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    You go to Robert Dyas and get a grim-meter. Put it on the dashboard (you can get an app for it now) and drive north. When the level of grim-ness enters the red zone, you are in The Proper North.


    I find it starts going crazy just north of Mill Hill. I've never dared to see what happens if I actually leave the M25.
    The north is everything the wrong side of the tamar as any fule knos
    In Somerset they think a pastie is a shoe, is what you mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's very simple: either immigration has to hugely come down before the next election, or Farage will be PM.

    More likely Jenrick after a deal with Farage though I suspect the economy will be more the decider for the median voter than immigration, important though that is for the right of centre voter
    If Sunak had left "stop the boats" off his to-do list it would have been less of an issue in the GE. It wasn't an issue for Johnson who explained to us we would be welcoming "our friends" from the Indian Subcontinent to cover the Brexit jobs shortfall.
    Sunak to be fair to him did introduce a higher wage requirement for all migrants, EU and non EU which worked only after he left office
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77l41z8yn7o
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's very simple: either immigration has to hugely come down before the next election, or Farage will be PM.

    More likely Jenrick after a deal with Farage though I suspect the economy will be more the decider for the median voter than immigration, important though that is for the right of centre voter
    If Sunak had left "stop the boats" off his to-do list it would have been less of an issue in the GE. It wasn't an issue for Johnson who explained to us we would be welcoming "our friends" from the Indian Subcontinent to cover the Brexit jobs shortfall.
    Sunak to be fair to him did introduce a higher wage requirement for all migrants, EU and non EU which worked only after he left office
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77l41z8yn7o
    Was his fault, though, he left office before it kicked in!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    What actually is a 'middle-class dinner party'? (I've never been to one and don't know anyone who has.) I've always assumed they involve sitting around a dining table all night (no lounging around on sofas or milling about in the kitchen) while a hired caterer does all the cooking. Is that the gist?
    We occasionally have disparate groups of people (no tories or leavers though) who wouldn't normally meet each other for dinner - that's a DP I suppose. Mrs DA loves to cook and I love an audience so they serve a purpose.
    They wouldn't tell you if they were.
    We never have meat or alcohol in the house so they wouldn't attend, even if undercover.
    Tofu does seem to act like garlic to vampires. Just look at the indignation in some elements of PB at the very thought of having to do without their litre of blood, actual or embodied in muscle tissue.
    Tofu is pretty damn boring, and not something I'd serve to a guest unless they requested it.
    But with a bit of imagination, you can make it palatable, since it takes up the flavour of whatever you cook it with. Great diet food.
  • rjkrjk Posts: 71
    edited August 19
    Foxy said:

    Today's Goodwin:

    "Once again, only about one in five people in Britain are passionately supportive of current immigration policy, while most of those —ensconced as they are in professional jobs in universities, corporations, the BBC, charities, museums and galleries— will never feel the negative effects of the policy they are advocating.

    Why? Because they belong to the luxury belief class, advocating ideas and policies like mass immigration which bring them status and brownie points from other elites at little cost to themselves, which make them feel fashionable and morally righteous at middle-class dinner parties , but which simultaneously inflict higher costs on the working-class and all those who simply want to protect the things they love by slowing the pace of immigration, like their identity, culture, values, and ways of life."


    Does he honestly believe people at middle class dinner parties sit around discussing how wonderful mass migration is?

    Bonkers.

    There is a certain contradiction and dishonesty about immigration in Britain. There is general agreement that immigration is too high, but when it comes down to nuts and bolts, people are generally in favour.


    This is presented as an inconsistency - that a majority of people say immigration is too high, but those same people give hypocritical answers when asked about specific immigrant groups. I don't think this is necessarily the correct interpretation.

    The set of people who think that immigration is too high is not the *intersection* of the set of people who think there are too many economic migrants, too many refugees, and too many students, it is the *union* of these sets. This is why the overall "too high" number is naturally larger than the "too high" number for each specific group.

    In other words, I'm probably in the "overall too high" group if I answered "too high" to the question about *any* of the sub-groups, so long as I don't think that one of the other groups is offsettingly too low, balancing the equation out. The people answering "too high" for one group are not necessarily the same as the people saying "too high" for another group, so the total can easily sum to a higher number than is given for any specific group.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808

    Well, the middle class dinner party thing seems to have stirred PB this morning.

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Sweden used to be one of the safest places to live in the world. Wonder what happened."

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1825478939092914416

    To answer his implied question, I think what really happened is supine administration of justice. We can't blame cultural antecedents for things when no attempt has been made at assimilation. Our own Governments have been at fault, both in Sweden and the UK.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114

    Well, the middle class dinner party thing seems to have stirred PB this morning.

    At last, a subject we all have extensive knowledge of!
    Not me, I am working class.
    Likewise. I was born working class but suspected I might be moving towards middle-classhood. But I've never held nor attended a dinner party and am unlikely ever to do so, so apparently not. Working class I remain.
    I am so working class, last two dinner parties I attended, one required me to wear a morning suit, the other one mandated a cummerbund be worn with my suit.
    TSE = Pound shop Hyacinth Bucket :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    edited August 19
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    This is just staggering.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/debt-ridden-council-accuses-solar-tycoon-of-blowing-150m-of-its-cash/ar-AA1oV3Xg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=31590d05a8434b1497fcabd6b1b749e0&ei=43

    A debt-ridden council has accused a Dubai-based solar tycoon of blowing £150 million of its cash on his luxury lifestyle, including by purchasing his own yacht and private jet.

    A High Court lawsuit by Thurrock Council in Essex, which declared itself bankrupt in 2022, claims Liam Kavanagh spent £13.7 million on a new yacht, £9.1 million on a private jet and another £20 million on a 232-acre country estate in Hampshire.

    The council invested some £400 million in bonds for a green energy scheme involving solar farms run by Kavanagh and his company Rockfire Capital, and racked up debts totalling more than £1.4 billion.

    Why do councils think they can do asset/investment management? A graduate hire in any fund would tell you those bonds are worthless after about 5 minutes of research.
    Sadly, councils are not filled with people with extensive financial experience.

    (Anecdote alert: when a Fund Manager, I was involved in a pitch to a British county council. I was asked what return we could guarantee, and I said "look, I can't guarantee anything. we're an equity fund, and we're in the business of taking risks, and - so far - we've done a pretty good job, but I can't guarantee that will continue." We lost the pitch to a fund manager who promised returns.)
    I think a guarantee of returns should be a huge, huge red flag for anyone taking an investment product. Markets can go down as well as up and councils shouldn't be investing in any product that can make money from markets falling, the risk is way too high for taxpayer money.
    You can of course guarantee principal by selling a discount bond and buying a call option with a strike of 100. And plenty of people did just that back in the day (premium = less than discount, obvs).
    Unless the company that's sold the bond goes bankrupt in which case the losses, especially for subordinates, will be huge as seems to be the case for this council.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    I don't know the expression you used, and my big nautical dictionary is downstairs, but there are certainly plenty of extremely basic yachts around. I've done my time in them, in crowded and cramped conditions - think bothy but with the foundations missing and rocking in the wind down Coruisk. Very much bring your own sleeping bag. And if you want bacon and eggs off Cape Wrath it's a matter of doing it yourself and holding on as the cooker swings in its gimbals.
    True enough.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114
    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    This is just staggering.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/debt-ridden-council-accuses-solar-tycoon-of-blowing-150m-of-its-cash/ar-AA1oV3Xg?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=31590d05a8434b1497fcabd6b1b749e0&ei=43

    A debt-ridden council has accused a Dubai-based solar tycoon of blowing £150 million of its cash on his luxury lifestyle, including by purchasing his own yacht and private jet.

    A High Court lawsuit by Thurrock Council in Essex, which declared itself bankrupt in 2022, claims Liam Kavanagh spent £13.7 million on a new yacht, £9.1 million on a private jet and another £20 million on a 232-acre country estate in Hampshire.

    The council invested some £400 million in bonds for a green energy scheme involving solar farms run by Kavanagh and his company Rockfire Capital, and racked up debts totalling more than £1.4 billion.

    Why do councils think they can do asset/investment management? A graduate hire in any fund would tell you those bonds are worthless after about 5 minutes of research.
    Sadly, councils are not filled with people with extensive financial experience.

    (Anecdote alert: when a Fund Manager, I was involved in a pitch to a British county council. I was asked what return we could guarantee, and I said "look, I can't guarantee anything. we're an equity fund, and we're in the business of taking risks, and - so far - we've done a pretty good job, but I can't guarantee that will continue." We lost the pitch to a fund manager who promised returns.)
    I think a guarantee of returns should be a huge, huge red flag for anyone taking an investment product. Markets can go down as well as up and councils shouldn't be investing in any product that can make money from markets falling, the risk is way too high for taxpayer money.
    You can of course guarantee principal by selling a discount bond and buying a call option with a strike of 100. And plenty of people did just that back in the day (premium = less than discount, obvs).
    Unless the company that's sold the bond goes bankrupt in which case the losses, especially for subordinates, will be huge as seems to be the case for this council.
    Yes but the principle is that you can guarantee principal via a discount bond/call option and people call it magic.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    TOPPING said:

    People are talking as though they have been forced, via external forces, to attend dinner parties with complete strangers who insisted on talking about schools and house prices in the teeth of a desire to talk about the virtues of AV vs STV.

    Dinner parties are just groups of friends who come together to chat about what they would otherwise talk about but all sitting down and having food and drink supplied by a kindly host.

    Before putting all the car keys in the rosebowl and asking the ladies to pick one out.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Selebian said:

    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lennon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Clacton is the poorest part of Essex and Jaywick is one of the most deprived parts of the UK which makes even Harlow and Basildon look posh by comparison. So not sure if Farage's all expenses paid trips to the US will go down well there, especially as I am not even sure if he has bought a house in the constituency yet.

    On the other hand like Trump being wealthy doesn't stop them holding their white working class support as long as they continue to fight immigration and globalisation

    The entire constituency is not a s***house, the good burghers of Frinton and Little Clacton have left the board mortally insulted.
    Frinton is alright and has some good sailing but the residents there see themselves more part of greater Suffolk than Clacton and Jaywick
    When Alun Cairns first became MP for the Vale of Glamorgan he had a home just over the Western Vale border but it was still just inside Bridgend Borough. Local legend has it, and I can't categorically say it is true or otherwise, he allegedly made enquiries to have the Vale border extended into Bridgend so his house would be in the correct county ( I assume the constituency might have been mentioned too). I believe he was allegedly given short shrift.

    Frinton is Greater Suffolk? You Tories operate on a reverse notion of “If the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain".

    Frinton is closer to Aldeburgh than Chigwell and closer to Ipswich than Basildon
    And London is closer to Calais than it is to Manchester, Leeds, or Newcastle... so presumably that means that it is part of 'Greater France'?
    I suspect most Londoners in central London would feel closer to France than the North and visit France more often than the North unless they come from the North originally. Inner London voted strongly to Remain in the EU too, the North voted clearly to Leave
    That is a rather good observation. Hate to admit it but it is certainly true for me. I travel far more often to France than I do to the North.
    And where exactly does "The North" start?
    Somewhere just a bit North of London.
    So you refer to your Southwold* house as your retreat in The North? :wink:

    *apologies if that's not you, but I think you've mentioned it before
    Yep that is me. My wife is there at the moment. She is Scottish so Southwold might just qualify as the South. So goes there to escape from me.
    Don't suggest in Southwold that you're in the South. It's East Anglia.
    Nobody who lives on Southwold however comes from East Anglia, we are all luvvies from the Home Counties.
    Long ago I ran, on a temporary basis, a pharmacy in Aldeburgh for a couple of weeks. There was a clear difference between the genuine locals and the weekenders, some of whom were actually full-time residents.
    Ah but Aldeburgh just aspires to be Southwold.
    Aldeburgh is more for arty types with the Brittan connection and only has a stony beach.

    Southwold has a sandy beach and a pier and basically becomes Chelsea on Sea in July and August from the accents when we last went there
    Not a bad description @hyufd. Although Southwold is pretty arty itself. A lot of actors live or go there and of course it has Latitudes. I don't go in July or August as it is too packed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Sweden used to be one of the safest places to live in the world. Wonder what happened."

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1825478939092914416

    Can we please stop Goodwin-ing the board. There are other tweets out there that are far more interesting than this provocateur ex-academic.
    Are you the new censor? Let the guy post what he wants ffs.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934

    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    Superyacht would be something like Kenneth Branagh's yacht in "Tenet".
    I have only sailed a yacht a few times and they have been pretty basic. I preferred to sail stuff that was supposed to capsize like Lasers and Hobie cats. I did do the Round the Island race once though in a racing yacht as a deckhand. My wife asked me whether I was afraid of drowning. I pointed out there was more chance of me being run over if I fell in, there were so many boats.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Christ.

    British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is missing after the sinking of a superyacht off the coast of Sicily, The Telegraph understands.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/19/four-britons-missing-yacht-sicily-live-latest/

    Lucky you qualified it with 'tech entrepreneur' as I was thinking of Mick Lynch and thinking these union positions must pay ok if he was living it up on a 'luxury yacht'

    (Not sure why news orgs feel the need to say 'luxury yacht' - there aren't that many pikey yachts, are there? Although it did conjure up the image of a Russian oligarch style oversized motorboat rather than, apparently, an actual sailboat)

    ETA: 'luxury yacht' from the beeb report; the Telegraph's 'superyacht' also doesn't fit the image I've seen, it must be said.
    This is the yacht

    https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-22774/bayesian.htm
    Yes, proper jobby with sails. Luxury yacht or superyacht makes me think of these:
    https://www.google.com/search?q=luxury+yacht&udm=2

    British(?) understatement: the page you linked has headline BAYESIAN YACHT NOT FOR CHARTER* and the * leads to "Sail yacht Bayesian is currently not believed to be available for private Charter."
    250ft high mast. ~170ft length. "Superyacht" seems reasonable to me !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,120
    Looks to me that the 1.7 on Spurs to beat my team is free money. These are always high scoring games, my team is worse than this time last year, the preseason was awful with us looking disorganised and clueless, not scoring in the last 3 games, the fans are restive.

    I reckon Spurs will beat us at least 3 nil.
This discussion has been closed.