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It’s looking sunny for Harris in the Sun Belt – politicalbetting.com
It’s looking sunny for Harris in the Sun Belt – politicalbetting.com
Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, according to new polls from The New York Times and Siena College. https://t.co/XfH5z0BEEE
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Robinson is a disastrous governor candidate for the GOP in N Carolina.
That is not going to help Trump hold on to the state.
New NYT-Siena poll of downballot Sun Belt races:
Arizona Senate
Gallego (D) 51%
Lake (R) 42%
Nevada Senate
Rosen (D) 49%
Brown (R) 40%
NC Governor
Stein (D) 49%
Robinson (R) 39%
https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1824783286855487943
But you’re not here, so it’s fine.
Trump has a problem now. His "peace within 24 hours" in Ukr promise was obviously based on telling Zelensky there is no more ammo or rockets coming matey so you better agree a ceasefire and freeze the conflict.
Freezing it now means Ukr keeping part of Russia! Vlad aint agreeing to that.
Because he considers the whole country to be Russia.
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1824807189023691094
https://dnyuz.com/2024/08/16/the-polls-have-shifted-toward-harris-is-it-real-or-something-else/
Engaging with minorities through group ‘leaders’ has perverted policing. Let’s not make that error again
Charles Moore"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/16/two-tier-policing-turning-white-british-community-group/
Possible game changers ?
Some big protest at the Democratic convention (possibly Israel related);
and relatedly, either a ceasefire, or an escalation of the Israel conflict;
Progress on the Trump legal cases;
The debates;
Further mental deterioration in Trump;
Trump sacks Vance (could be a ‘virtual’ - “you’re fired” - rather than actual sacking, which is legally dubious);
A genuine black swan…
Anyone got anything else ?
If anything, the presence of the abortion referendum on the ballot in Arizona is likely to mean younger voters, and particularly younger women voters, are likely to turn out in greater numbers than their current poll weightings.
Javier Milei criticised the social media arrests in the UK, boasting that Argentina was moving in the opposite direction."
https://x.com/unherd/status/1824559276779540742
The problem with exemplary sentences is they seem unfair, and not just to right wing rioters.
Newcastle man jailed after killing victim in 'senseless' one-punch attack at Gosforth Hotel
https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-16/man-jailed-after-killing-victim-in-senseless-one-punch-attack-at-pub
I personally welcome a return to harshly punishing those who are involved in violent crime, especially those who violently attack the police. However, lets see if that is maintained going forward.
That is not just Poland, Bulgaria, East Germany... its also Alaska. That´s the problem with Imperialism. It is why the crooks and thieves who control Russia should all be put in jail asap.
The woke Daily Mail seems to have lost its go to status.
Trump has really started to double down on the economy, and that is going to play in his favour. Now, whether that will be enough is another matter altogether. Likewise, this requires him to stay relentlessly on message, rather than going off on his personal vendettas and grievences, which it is far from clear he will be able to do.
BBC News - Gaza ceasefire progress is an illusion, says Hamas
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gdewq4v8wo
First: "In FY 2023, SNAP served an average of 42.1 million participants per month. Federal SNAP spending totaled $112.8 billion and benefits averaged $211.93 per participant per month."
source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap/key-statistics-and-research/
SNAP is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly still called "food stamps", though the actual stamps vanished years and years ago.
Benefits go to those officially classed as poor, though not all poor people ask for them.
Second: About 90 million people are enrolled in Medicaid, a health insurance program for low income people in the United States and territories: https://www.statista.com/statistics/245347/total-medicaid-enrollment-since-1966/
More than 800 billion dollars is spent each year on Medicaid by the federal government, the states, and the territories: https://www.statista.com/statistics/245348/total-medicaid-expenditure-since-1966/
People who are low income and old are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare
Does the UK government spend more per capita on similar programs?
(For the record: I have been on the Medicare program for some years now, and used it to pay for most of the cost of getting my cataracts fixed.)
SPUD is better
A bunch of kids on their 50ccs were driving behind me in a flock (what’s the collective noun for kids on mopeds?) and the two guys at the front sometimes only about three feet. One of those two started reading his phone as riding along then started filming himself and his mates selfie style whilst we were all going around 40 on windy roads with loads of concealed junctions and driveways. Nearly backended me a couple of times.
Eventually I stopped the car and got out and went mental at the kid for being an absolute dick and pointed out he could,d have killed himself, his mates or any pedestrians who stepped out. They were all obviously telling me to fuck off and gesturing at me which basically made me decide to involve the police. I told him I was taking his plate number and he kept trying to back up so I couldn’t get it but I did.
Phoned the constabulary once I pulled up properly. I explained I would never usually do this, kids will do stupid things, I’ve done stupid things but this prick could have ended up dead or killing someone else for social media likes.
The policeman on the phone asked if I had any footage - obvs not I was driving not filming my journey - so I pointed out they’ve probably provided the footage themselves on their social media.
But I really feel like an arsehole now, I wonder if they will try and claim some bullshit that I assaulted them or something, but I wouldn’t forgive myself if they had gone on and run over a child or something else grim.
Should I have just left it at calling them every name under the sun and teaching them new swear words ?
Correction: incredible.
More bilge pumped on PB by one of Trump's leading fluffers . . . also one of Putin's prize pimps . . .
X to close operations in Brazil 'effective immediately'
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1824837388310364565
To all the initiators and patrons of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The only thing you should do today about it is apologise and keep quiet.
Be British.
Personally I would make them all publishers and all websites available openly in the UK have to have a UK agent (publisher) would would be the body (with responsible individuals) you sue for libel/prosecute for incitement. Without which you are turned off. There is no sane reason why X should be immune when the editor of the Daily Mail is not. They are commercial money making outfits.
What is suboptimal about this is obvious. But I don't actually think anything else will work. This might not either of course.
How much do you think we should spend on regulating the entire internet?
It will cause me big problems if for some reason they don’t reverse this madness.
It's a real shame that there seem to be very few decent Russians left. I'm sure that perception is fuelled mostly by it just being the rich Russians that we see in the west, but I still think something died in Russia a while back - some great soul.
(a) can (or should) the site moderate to remove potentially libellous comments? Or would that be us suppressing free speech?
(b) in the event that the site does not remove the comment, and the commenter is anonymous, is the site responsible for the content? Can Elon sue PB for libel?
There are obviously many iterations of this. And the Internet needs to sort it out. Because once people have imbibed a falsehood, then - even if the truth is later discovered - they will still cling to a bit of the lie. Millions of Brits, for example, still think Lord McAlpine was a paedophile.
Would you ban a cafe or pub if it became known as a hotbed of rumour and gossip?
2) No idea. A clever policy will make it mostly self-regulating; the Daily Mail self regulates, as does Penguin books. 'If you want to make money from the UK, these are the rules and laws you work under. otherwise you can't' That's not unfair. The rest of us live under the rule of law. Why shouldn't they?
That’s when you pick up the Webley–Fosbery
Walthers are for those expense accounts snobs.
It’s not as though he picked Pence for their shared interest in religion.
2) No.
Welrod .32 at the Range: British SOE's Silent Assassin's Pistol
If Trump were the kind of Putinist stooge people claim, why was he on the right side of the Nordstream debate when so many others weren't?
The psychic who speaks to Lady Di and the commercial internet outfit that prints of an innocent: 'ABC murders small children and a group should burn his house down and murder him, meeting at this address with petrol and matches at 8 pm tomorrow' are both rubbish, but only one commits a serious crime.
But the Internet is bigger than the Amazon river, and you've got a finger in a tiny dam in a small tributary of it
Internet policing is an extremely expensive game of whackamole
As he campaigns on it more, it becomes obvious just how incoherent both he, and the few things which pass for his policies are.
It’s also fairly likely there will be significant interest rate cuts before November.
Of course Harris could seriously misstep if she’s not careful, but the signs are (see the price gouging kerfuffle, and the massive GOP overreaction before any detail is announced), that it’s not going to be her that’s careless.
Immigration is their strongest card, and they are probably overplaying it.
It is inevitable in the end that internet operators cannot be immune for ever from liability when no-one else is immune.
The SOE types used it to snipe the drivers of German staff cars, so they say. Sounds like just the ticket for moped oiks.
Last night, my family was swatted in what Upper Merion Police are classifying as a politically motivated crime. This happened after I appeared on
@CNN, where I discussed my decision not to support Donald Trump.
I want to be clear: these types of attacks are exactly why I’m speaking out against the MAGA wing of my party and why I’m proudly voting for Kamala Harris.
https://x.com/McCaffery2032/status/1824811613758615729
I bought Coquilles Saint Jacques (scallops), potted brown shrimp, and gravadlax
I think that a number of people now in prison following the post Southport tragedies honestly believed that whatever you posted on the internet could never be a crime.
Or maybe not. Maybe they think it is only a crime when other people do it?
(According to the WaPo, the VFW has 1.5 million members.)
He’s not normally reticent on such things.
Vance is merely indifferent to the war in Ukraine, which is a perfectly respectable position for an American politician to have. It doesn't have any greater significance than that and he would have no responsibility for foreign policy.
But recall that the one thing Vance was best known for in the six months before that was his vocal opposition in the Senate to any aid for Ukraine.
Trump picked Pence to signal that he was on board with the fundamentalist Christian agenda - and lived up to that in office (irrespective of his own lack of faith).
Why would it be any different with Vance ?
And has Trump ever shown any concern at all for Ukraine's fate ?
Regarding speech, one question is how much public knowledge is there about the laws about incitement, harrassment, 'malicious communications' - or civil rules about libel etc. I didn't really know about these things until I was in my late 30s and took an interest in them. I don't think people generally know about them. People are also told that they have 'free speech' and 'its a free country' but this is a dangerous idea because it isn't correct. If you look at the current round of arrests and imprisonment, I think a lot of people just didn't know what they were doing was wrong/illegal.
Mr. Santos could change his mind, but witnesses in his campaign fraud case were told by federal prosecutors that he intends to plead guilty on Monday.
SSI - One wonders, just how much Republicans MIGHT have had to pay ex-US Reprentative and mega-MAGA Republican George Santos, in order to make his case including 23 separate felony charges, simply go away, in the lead-up to the First Tuesday Before the First Monday in November?
Reckon that GS will let us know . . . at some point in future . . .
Yet more oral relief for Trump AND Putin.
In policy terms Trump is probably closer to Clinton than any of his Republican predecessors.
I told him I'd capture Korenevo and he said 'No way.' and I said 'way.'
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1824803676562612332
Don't be ridiculous.
God knows how they will cope if he loses in November.
If he could have triangulated by turning it into a question for the states, he absolutely would have done.
Edited to say, the rillettes and Mrs ball’s chutney aren’t eaten on same toast.
A 16-year-old boy, who cannot be named due to his age, has been remanded in custody charged with stabbing an army chaplain in Co Galway.
Police told the court the attack was “frenzied” and believe the accused holds a “radical Islamist mindset.”
Nigel Farage gets £95000 a month from GB News
I have never watched or listened to GB News, and am not quite sure if it is a wireless programme or a podcast or a TV station. Perhaps I lead a sheltered life but I can't find anyone else who watches or listens to it. So it can't be making money, and certainly not the money which would justify £95K a month on commercial grounds.
So someone is bankrolling GBNews, and if the internet is to be believed, and I fully accept that there is lots of fiction online, that is money from the Middle East. How is a parliamentarian allowed to be paid from abroad for something that has no apparent commercial basis? Aren't their any rules?