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How the Tories may deal with two massive elections at the same time and a budget

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited August 26 in General
imageHow the Tories may deal with two massive elections at the same time and a budget– politicalbetting.com

EXC: Senior Tories plotting bringing forward leadership result to allow new boss to respond to budget on October 30. Despite mealy mouthed denials this morning, multiple sources confirm this was still being discussed at top of party yesterday. https://t.co/eUVhr2qwFp

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,622
    edited August 15
    As long as it isn't Kemi my Ladbrokes account is happy. (And Mel Stride would be ideal as I'm on at 100:1)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,687
    Two massive elections - Michael Gove and?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433
    edited August 15
    FPT
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,433
    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Got to say the date of the budget was fairly obvious....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    'Harrismania' is hugely overblown, and Trump's chances are being understated.

    1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s

    2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris

    3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters

    4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal

    Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    edited August 15
    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.

    Although in all the excitement he forgot to claim his "first".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    Academically maybe but politically, nah - it'd be a waste for off in a month Rishi to respond to the budget. It's a good opportunity for the new leader to make their mark.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Of course it can, but then eventually they have to face the electorate and on their current record they can have the shit kicked out of them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007
    edited August 15
    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    Same with biological sciences, albeit a bit earlier, and not so altruistic (I wasn't so competent). When I did my degree I was slightly unusual for finding a PDP in some corner of the chemistry dept and unofficially programming it in Basic to do my sums; also for being completely au fait with population dynamics and matrix calculations. My project on the genetics of host-parasite dynamics (as did others) demonstrated peculiar behaviour at higher rates of parameter - in hindsight, a beautiful example of chaos. But I wasn't a hundredth of the mathematician needed to spot the nature of that let alone devise the theory.

    I wonder what it's like now as an undergraduate? Obviously much faster for biophysical work on macromolecules - no expanded polystyrene or layered perspex models nowadays - but even core courses must be different.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,910
    HYUFD said:

    'Harrismania' is hugely overblown, and Trump's chances are being understated.

    1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s

    2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris

    3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters

    4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal

    Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794

    I read somewhere - probably on here - that Trump has run out of credit, not having paid his bills from the last couple of campaigns.

    If he cannot book up venues, how can he organise his rallies?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
    BJO is that you?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    And since most of the budget speech is going to be a rant about what a terrible mess the Tories left behind and why it is now necessary to increase taxes despite promising not to someone actually familiar with those figures will surely be able to respond with vigour.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
    BJO is that you?
    BJO is more supportive of Starmer than me,
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Of course it can, but then eventually they have to face the electorate and on their current record they can have the shit kicked out of them.
    Of course.

    In 2029.

    (The other possibly is that they are playing the Scrooge/Santa game that all politically astute governments play. Much too early to say.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Of course it can, but then eventually they have to face the electorate and on their current record they can have the shit kicked out of them.
    Of course.

    In 2029.

    (The other possibly is that they are playing the Scrooge/Santa game that all politically astute governments play. Much too early to say.)
    The issue becomes how big is the backlash. Nothing is permanent
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
    BJO is that you?
    BJO is more supportive of Starmer than me,
    Nah, you're a fanboi by comparison.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
    BJO is that you?
    BJO is more supportive of Starmer than me,
    Nah, you're a fanboi by comparison.
    LOL
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    Same with biological sciences, albeit a bit earlier, and not so altruistic (I wasn't so competent). When I did my degree I was slightly unusual for finding a PDP in some corner of the chemistry dept and unofficially programming it in Basic to do my sums; also for being completely au fait with population dynamics and matrix calculations. My project on the genetics of host-parasite dynamics (as did others) demonstrated peculiar behaviour at higher rates of parameter - in hindsight, a beautiful example of chaos. But I wasn't a hundredth of the mathematician needed to spot the nature of that let alone devise the theory.

    I wonder what it's like now as an undergraduate? Obviously much faster for biophysical work on macromolecules - no expanded polystyrene or layered perspex models nowadays - but even core courses must be different.
    Back in the mid to late 50's one could avoid National Service by doing two years science teaching. At my school we had a couple of such 'avoiders' and to keep them fully occupied members of the Biology Sixth were given one maths lesson per week. It would, to be fair, have been quite a good idea if the 'teacher' had had any idea of how to teach and if we'd concentrated on Statistics.
  • Do you think that we should start linking to other social media sites, eg Blue Sky, rather than mainly X?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    And since most of the budget speech is going to be a rant about what a terrible mess the Tories left behind and why it is now necessary to increase taxes despite promising not to someone actually familiar with those figures will surely be able to respond with vigour.
    Rishi is yesterday's man though, & seeing as the entire budget is bound to be leaked in the press prior to being delivered you'd hope Jenrick, Badenoch or whoever would be able to do that job. If they can't, well the Tories have a big problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    If the LDs or Reform were going to overtake them it would have been at the last GE, indeed the latest poll has Reform taking from Labour but the Tories and LDs unchanged. In some respects even if Reform tied the Tories that benefits the Tories most under FPTP if Reform gains come from Labour and it narrows the Labour v Tory gap in marginal seats
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Excellent film
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    And since most of the budget speech is going to be a rant about what a terrible mess the Tories left behind and why it is now necessary to increase taxes despite promising not to someone actually familiar with those figures will surely be able to respond with vigour.
    Rishi is yesterday's man though, & seeing as the entire budget is bound to be leaked in the press prior to being delivered you'd hope Jenrick, Badenoch or whoever would be able to do that job. If they can't, well the Tories have a big problem.
    You think they don't?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Indeed, while most of the Tory MPs who toppled him have either now left politics long ago or lost their seats on 4th July while he held his
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,234
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    And since most of the budget speech is going to be a rant about what a terrible mess the Tories left behind and why it is now necessary to increase taxes despite promising not to someone actually familiar with those figures will surely be able to respond with vigour.
    Rishi is yesterday's man though, & seeing as the entire budget is bound to be leaked in the press prior to being delivered you'd hope Jenrick, Badenoch or whoever would be able to do that job. If they can't, well the Tories have a big problem.
    You think they don't?
    A bigger problem then lol
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,966

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    Why did they pick a date a few days before the US Presidential election on the first place?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    I mentioned the other day that the big tactical advantage of the Kursk invasion is that it gives the Ukrainians the chance to let their western armour run riot without being bogged down in minefields and concrete obstructions. And it appears that the Ukrainians are finally getting proper use of their Challenger II tanks: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy54nn4v471t
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,966

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    Same with biological sciences, albeit a bit earlier, and not so altruistic (I wasn't so competent). When I did my degree I was slightly unusual for finding a PDP in some corner of the chemistry dept and unofficially programming it in Basic to do my sums; also for being completely au fait with population dynamics and matrix calculations. My project on the genetics of host-parasite dynamics (as did others) demonstrated peculiar behaviour at higher rates of parameter - in hindsight, a beautiful example of chaos. But I wasn't a hundredth of the mathematician needed to spot the nature of that let alone devise the theory.

    I wonder what it's like now as an undergraduate? Obviously much faster for biophysical work on macromolecules - no expanded polystyrene or layered perspex models nowadays - but even core courses must be different.
    Back in the mid to late 50's one could avoid National Service by doing two years science teaching. At my school we had a couple of such 'avoiders' and to keep them fully occupied members of the Biology Sixth were given one maths lesson per week. It would, to be fair, have been quite a good idea if the 'teacher' had had any idea of how to teach and if we'd concentrated on Statistics.
    Was HYUFD in your statistics class?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    We Think/Omnisis has at least thrown a crumb or two for those of us starved of polls to microanalyse since the election.

    The figures for the previous poll on Wikipedia are completely wrong. That poll had, excluding Don't Knows and Would Not Votes - Labour 36%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 17%, Liberal Democrats 11% and Greens 7% with 3% opting for "an Independent Candidate".

    The current offering has Labour 33% (-3), Reform 21% (+4), Conservatives 20% (-2), Liberal Democrats 11% (nc), Greens 8% (+1) and Independent 3% (nc)

    The final We Think poll before the GE underestimated BOTH the Conservatives and LDs by one and a half percent and Others by two and a half percent while overestimating Labour by five and a half percent. My thought is the pollsters missed the strength of the "Independent" vote in some inner urban Labour seats and also missed the abstention among likely Labour voters which I've seen at anything up to 1.7 million people.

    We can therefore argue the Conservatives were, to an extent, "saved" by Labour supporters not bothering to vote - why they didn't bother is or should be a subject for much research.

    The current poll has a very small sample but the England sub sample (just a bit of fun, as Mr P. Snow used to say) has Labour on 34% (-1), Conservative 22% (-4), Reform 21% (+6), Liberal Democrats 11% (-2), Greens 8% (+1) and Independents 3% (+1) - changes reflecting rounding and from the GE.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,966
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely it makes more sense for the current LotO, and former Chancellor, to respond to the Budget.

    He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.

    And since most of the budget speech is going to be a rant about what a terrible mess the Tories left behind and why it is now necessary to increase taxes despite promising not to someone actually familiar with those figures will surely be able to respond with vigour.
    Rishi is yesterday's man though, & seeing as the entire budget is bound to be leaked in the press prior to being delivered you'd hope Jenrick, Badenoch or whoever would be able to do that job. If they can't, well the Tories have a big problem.
    I am wondering whether, with the change of government, leaks will be fewer this year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    Carnyx said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    The Gas Street School playground chat site is over *there*, not here.
    I thought that was one the the Field Marshal's more cultivated posts.
    well looking at the case of the 15 year old rioter i was going to go with

    Keir Starmer
    childhood harmer.

    but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
    BJO is that you?
    BJO is more supportive of Starmer than me,
    Nah, you're a fanboi by comparison.
    We are *all* fanboys by comparison.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Indeed, while most of the Tory MPs who toppled him have either now left politics long ago or lost their seats on 4th July while he held his
    He only held his seat because Starmer dropped the ball over candidate selection.

    I suspect, second only to Farage's victory in Clacton that was the second biggest disappointment for anyone who wasn't on the extreme right of the Conservative Party on July 5th
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    If the LDs or Reform were going to overtake them it would have been at the last GE, indeed the latest poll has Reform taking from Labour but the Tories and LDs unchanged. In some respects even if Reform tied the Tories that benefits the Tories most under FPTP if Reform gains come from Labour and it narrows the Labour v Tory gap in marginal seats
    If you put the current We Think numbers into Electoral Calculus, the Conservatives lose 22 seats to 99, still ahead of the LDs (73). Labour gain 10 from the Conservatives but lose four, three to Reform and Wes Streeting's seat to an Independent. The Conservatives lose nine to Reform, two to the SNP, one to the LDs and ten to Labour.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    Whilst that's true, there's surely a fairly significant number of people out there who vote Tory more often than not but couldn't support them in July for various reasons who would be expected to drift back as the farce of the last few years fades into memory - at least if they avoid picking Patel as leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    edited August 15

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    Why did they pick a date a few days before the US Presidential election on the first place?

    Because somebody thought it would be funny to announce the new Tory leader on the day of the dead.
    Day of the undead would be more appropriate for the zombie leader of a zombie party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Really interesting thread on the Chinese property market, which is currently undergoing what one might euphemistically describe as a ‘correction’.

    https://x.com/macroalf/status/1824051303896539197
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    DougSeal said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Re comments on Democrats winning the House and Senate.

    The former looks entirely possible. It’s on a knife edge anyway.

    The Senate likely all comes down to Montana. They are generally polling ahead in the other close races I think, and WV is gone. So Tester winning would produce a 50-50 Senate and VP casting vote. At the moment, I think Tester is polling slightly behind.

    I’m not sure they’ll be too upset with a 49-51 Senate though. The filibuster sadly probably remains, but they’ll have Murkowski and Collins on the GOP side who will probably get them where they need to be on nominations etc.

    Dems are behind in Montana. But even if they win there, there are a few other very close races they would need to hold to keep it 50-50.

    Some say Dems have a 'tough map this year'. Which is kind of true. But the truth is the whole Senate map of 50 states is tough for the Dems. There are simply more red states than blue states. And as the phenomenon of Dem senators in red states slowly disappears, it's going to be very hard for the Dems to get a Senate majority in any election where the national vote is close-ish.
    Which is why its ridiculous they've not made DC and Puerto Rico states, both of which deserve to be states.

    The latter would be a purple state, but a
    purple one they could win in a good year.
    It was a deliberate choice by the founders that Washington was not a state
    It was a deliberate choice to maintain the institution of slavery.
    It doesn't mean it can't be changed.

    And the Article IV process for admitting a new state is massively simpler than that for amending the Constitution.
    New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or
    more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.
    Canberra is not a state either

    The seat of federal government should not be part of a state because that muddies the lines of accountability.
    It's a view.
    Which is why most proposals for DC statehood suggest something along the lines of Barty's earlier comment.
    "Redefining the capital territory as the uninhabited land spanning the White House, US Congress etc while admitting the rest of the inhabited territory as a new state would be entirely plausible and reasonable."
    Canberra may not be a state, but it has representation in the Australian Senate. Berlin is a state in the Federal Republic. Delhi is a state in India. I don't see what problems these cause. Of course every country is different, but giving residents of DC no representation in the Senate doesn't seem right.
    DC used to be an precise square of 10 square miles but the portion on the other side of the Potomac was retroceded back to Virginia in 1847, while the part that used to be in Maryland was retained.

    The most sensible solution IMHO would be to retrocede all of the remaining parts of DC back to Maryland SAVE for the areas immediately adjacent to the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court. Hardly anyone lives there so it would meet the need for a "neutral" site for the Federal Government outside the jurisdiction of any State while disenfranchising very few people, if any.
    Seems a bit more complicated than just adding another state. Of course DC would be the state with the highest proportion of African Americans, whereas the other small (by population) states tend to be way whiter than the US average. So those extra 2 senators would go a little way to balancing things up a bit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    edited August 15

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    Same with biological sciences, albeit a bit earlier, and not so altruistic (I wasn't so competent). When I did my degree I was slightly unusual for finding a PDP in some corner of the chemistry dept and unofficially programming it in Basic to do my sums; also for being completely au fait with population dynamics and matrix calculations. My project on the genetics of host-parasite dynamics (as did others) demonstrated peculiar behaviour at higher rates of parameter - in hindsight, a beautiful example of chaos. But I wasn't a hundredth of the mathematician needed to spot the nature of that let alone devise the theory.

    I wonder what it's like now as an undergraduate? Obviously much faster for biophysical work on macromolecules - no expanded polystyrene or layered perspex models nowadays - but even core courses must be different.
    Back in the mid to late 50's one could avoid National Service by doing two years science teaching. At my school we had a couple of such 'avoiders' and to keep them fully occupied members of the Biology Sixth were given one maths lesson per week. It would, to be fair, have been quite a good idea if the 'teacher' had had any idea of how to teach and if we'd concentrated on Statistics.
    Was HYUFD in your statistics class?
    Ha ha. No; a) he's far too young b) it was a State Grammar School. Wasn't he privately educated?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Excellent film
    Not seen that. Wiki says a "rollicking comedy" with John Wayne in it. Hmm. Not sure it's me.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Excellent film
    Not seen that. Wiki says a "rollicking comedy" with John Wayne in it. Hmm. Not sure it's me.
    It wouldnt be
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,622
    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    Ever more precise, no more accurate. 😀
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    edited August 15

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Article basically agreeing with you

    https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2024/08/government-as-household-if-only.html

    Having said that, Reeves' sin is to be too much like George Osborne and the Conservative alternatives are at least as bad
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 15
    FF43 said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Article basically agreeing with you

    https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2024/08/government-as-household-if-only.html

    Having said that, Reeves' sin is to be too much like George Osborne and the Conservative alternatives are at least as bad
    There are no good options in this situations. There are bad ones and worse ones.

    Truss tried the worse ones. Sunak the bad ones. Reeves will likely have to continue with at least large elements of Sunak's policy. It remains to be seen how many of the 'worse' ideas of her own she comes up with (if any) to add to the VAT on private school fees already announced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    A good idea to bring forward the leadership result to the end of October so it avoids being overshadowed by events in the calendar.

    Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before

    Still there though, the Quiet Man.
    Excellent film
    Not seen that. Wiki says a "rollicking comedy" with John Wayne in it. Hmm. Not sure it's me.
    It wouldnt be
    It's a lovely film though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    I think we can expect NHS throughput to improve, and waiting list numbers to drop at 2 or 3 times the rate that has been happening - subject perhaps to any 'hidden backlog' of patients who have not come forward. I'm not sure about NHS labour productivity.

    And I would expect train reliability to improve if ASLEF are quiet for a bit. But they specialise in not being quiet for a bit.

    But I think TUs are one of Mr Starmer's potential elephant traps; some reform has been promised, but they won't be happy if he leaves the Thatcher changes in place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    I thought the word caesarean began with an S.

    But when I looked in the dictionary it was in the C section.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,913

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    There's something of a reversion to discredited 1970s management styles with @Alanbrooke 's analysis.

    " Give the barstewards a good kick and they'll work harder".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474

    I thought the word caesarean began with an S.

    But when I looked in the dictionary it was in the C section.

    Do you have to Mac duff jokes like that?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    Also from another PB.

    Barred Candy

    Not a Priti picture

    The Tory leadership race is hotting up, but things aren't looking too rosy for Priti Patel.

    Tory party donors who were formerly Team Boris are refusing to get behind Priti because of her links to the Partygate leak. Her top spin doctor James Starkie was the one they suspect sent the Mirror the infamous CCHQ photo of a lockdown Christmas party - the first domino in the chain that eventually toppled BoJo.

    Starkie is so reviled in those circles he's suffered an extremely Tory punishment. Nick Candy - billionaire and husband of Holly Valance - has had him banned from various clubs in London.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    eek said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    kenObi said:

    AlsoLei said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    Saw this tweet, and thought, that's odd:

    https://x.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1823989183519543369

    Josephine Cumbo
    @JosephineCumbo
    Son achieved AAA in Physics, Further Maths and Maths and no offer from First Choice or Insurance University. Now doing mad scramble for Clearing places. Stress levels are high.


    But, then I remembered that there is now an A* grade. Presumably, for many universities, the A* just replaced the A.

    Hmmm.

    He must have aimed very high with his first uni if he got no response to three As in those subjects.

    But I'm also surprised his insurance offer wasn't rather lower than three As. That suggests bad planning.

    If he's got an A in Further Maths I'd also be surprised if he has any trouble at all getting a place through Clearing, but maybe it would be better to defer?

    Anyway, none of that is presumably of any use to her.
    Lots of duplication between Maths, Further Maths, and Physics, though - it's only really 2½ A-Levels at best.

    Presumably he'll have done another one or two subjects as well, so maybe the conditional offers were based on those?
    I'd certainly agree with the maths/further maths. Not so sure about physics - at least in my day there was a considerable lab based element.

    Our school pushed the best maths students through GCSE a year early, then A level the same giving u the Further maths in one year.
    Roughly 15 - 20% of A level physics is practicals but I'd say a third of the rest could be described as the application of maths.
    Plenty of people do Maths but not Physics at A level, but some struggle if doing Physics without Maths.

    A level Physics is full of calculus, which isn’t taught for GCSE Maths. If you’re only guy on the Physics course not also doing A level Maths, then you’ll be teaching yourself calculus.
    I think the big change over the past decade or two has been (albeit at degree level) the phenomenal amount of higher maths required for economics degrees. If your maths is not pretty advanced you have no chance of keeping up with most modern economics theory.


    It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.

    But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
    That "30 odd years" is interesting.

    Lotus 123 came out more than 40 years ago.

    Are you sure it wasn't an archaeology course? :wink:

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515
    DavidL said:

    I mentioned the other day that the big tactical advantage of the Kursk invasion is that it gives the Ukrainians the chance to let their western armour run riot without being bogged down in minefields and concrete obstructions. And it appears that the Ukrainians are finally getting proper use of their Challenger II tanks: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy54nn4v471t

    It will interesting to see what tactics they are using them with.

    One speculation was that they would be used like as Conqueror/M103 heavy tanks were supposed to be used - long range backup for attacks by the regular MBTs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,888
    The problem with Twitter, instant news and bots:

    In the last hour, I've seen the same video twice. It shows a ground-based missile system being destroyed. One tweet stated that it was a Ukrainian HIMARS system; the other that it was a Russian Iskander.

    I've nowhere near the skill to tell what the system is from the grainy video.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    Re Tory Leader. I think the safe choice (regroup, stabilise, stop digging) is Cleverly. But they'll probably want to be more aspirational than that. In which case (if I had a vote) I'd apply some horse racing analysis. DecrepiterJohnL, Stodge, Peter_the_Punter, these sorts will get my drift here. So you pass over the horses that are well tried with their best form not good enough to win and you look for one that is just coming through, has maybe shown flashes but is what they call "unexposed", meaning hasn't really been tested yet and could be, COULD be, better than the form in the book. For me, in this (as it were) Conservative Leadership Selling Plate sponsored by Chums, that horse is probably Robert Jenrick.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    Yes all those poor sods heading off to University to get £50k of Clegg induced debt and who wont be able to get a well paid job shouold drop the whole charade and apply to be a train driver, £75k plus pension for pushing a lever.

    On the other hand do you buy scotch eggs ? I could maybe do you a deal.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,515

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    There's something of a reversion to discredited 1970s management styles with @Alanbrooke 's analysis.

    " Give the barstewards a good kick and they'll work harder".
    "Beatings will continue until morale improves."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    Yes all those poor sods heading off to University to get £50k of Clegg induced debt and who wont be able to get a well paid job shouold drop the whole charade and apply to be a train driver, £75k plus pension for pushing a lever.

    On the other hand do you buy scotch eggs ? I could maybe do you a deal.
    Is this post based on some Tolkeinesque riddle?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    I used to catch TPE from CLS. Those fuckers were always late. Average 15 minutes. I was nearly late for my first date with my now wife 11 years ago as the train was 20 minutes late.

    Never caught one on time.

    We use the X21 bus now. Zips through.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    Morale is about objectives and leadership. Pay rises buy people off temporarily but if nothing else improves it soon sinks back. In this case nothing has changed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    edited August 15

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now youre just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    1. They're only massive because their pay has been frozen for years
    2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
    3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
    There's something of a reversion to discredited 1970s management styles with @Alanbrooke 's analysis.

    " Give the barstewards a good kick and they'll work harder".
    I was rather hoping to avoid the 70s, but Reeves seems determined to take us back there.

    Power cuts ahoy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
    Essex keep talking about moving too. Current ground's small, but bang in the middle of Chelmsford.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    edited August 15

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    Morale is about objectives and leadership. Pay rises buy people off temporarily but if nothing else improves it soon sinks back. In this case nothing has changed.
    That's a very narrow minded view, particularly in the light that in many of these cases safety was also an issue on the table.

    When it comes down to doctors, nurses and teachers, pissing them off so royally that they leave the sector and even the country, is doing nothing for national productivity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,474
    edited August 15

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
    Essex keep talking about moving too. Current ground's small, but bang in the middle of Chelmsford.
    Thing is, most of these grounds date from the 19th century. When cities were quite a bit smaller so they were on the edge. Now, for example, Bristol is barely considered even in the suburbs. It's in the inner city.

    And the access is poor.

    Hampshire moved a few years ago and it was an excellent decision. They've got one of the best grounds in the country now with superb ancillary facilities that make them serious money, and it's probably not a coincidence they've re-emerged as a serious force in the game as well.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    It had to be done. It's part of what that Aussie election guru, forget his name, used to call "scraping off the barnacles".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    Morale is about objectives and leadership. Pay rises buy people off temporarily but if nothing else improves it soon sinks back. In this case nothing has changed.
    That's a very narrow minded view, particularly in the light that in many of these cases safety was also an issue on the table.

    When it comes down to doctors, nurses and teachers, pissing them off so royally that they leave the sector and even the country, is doing nothing for productivity.
    You see pay as the issue I dont. The pay is a symptom of poor organisation. If we trained enough doctors and nurses we wouldnt have the problems we have. A 22% pay rise will not solve the doctor problem. Training more doctors will.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433
    kinabalu said:

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    It had to be done. It's part of what that Aussie election guru, forget his name, used to call "scraping off the barnacles".
    so how are you going to fund the 22% bigger pension liabilirty ?

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,801

    DavidL said:

    I mentioned the other day that the big tactical advantage of the Kursk invasion is that it gives the Ukrainians the chance to let their western armour run riot without being bogged down in minefields and concrete obstructions. And it appears that the Ukrainians are finally getting proper use of their Challenger II tanks: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy54nn4v471t

    It will interesting to see what tactics they are using them with.

    One speculation was that they would be used like as Conqueror/M103 heavy tanks were supposed to be used - long range backup for attacks by the regular MBTs.
    Ukraine does have the ability to use equipment to its best given all the odds and sods that they've been handed.

    Challenger (please correct me if I'm wrong) was a tank-on-tank design. I'm not sure there's been much of that at all has there?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
    Essex keep talking about moving too. Current ground's small, but bang in the middle of Chelmsford.
    Presumably they could make tens of millions selling off the ground for blocks of river view apartments to be built on the site, and find another site that’s currently a random field a mile out of town? Not an easy decision to make, especially when the money is being dangled in front of you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007
    edited August 15
    Talkking about trains ... the test case for certain legal procedures used to prosecute, or persecute, alleged ticket evaders has been judged. Take home: not a happy day for the Fat Controllers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyx0p18kq74o

    "As many as 74,000 prosecutions for alleged rail fare evasion in England and Wales are set to be quashed following a landmark ruling.

    UK rail companies had been fast-tracking alleged ticket dodging offences using a process called the single justice procedure (SJP), which allows magistrates' hearings to be held behind closed doors.

    But on Thursday, the UK's chief magistrate, Judge Goldspring, declared six test cases as void, external, saying the process should never have been used."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Carnyx said:

    Talkking about trains ... the test case for certain legal procedures used to prosecute, or persecute, alleged ticket evaders has been judged. Take home: not a happy day for the Fat Controllers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyx0p18kq74o

    "As many as 74,000 prosecutions for alleged rail fare evasion in England and Wales are set to be quashed following a landmark ruling.

    UK rail companies had been fast-tracking alleged ticket dodging offences using a process called the single justice procedure (SJP), which allows magistrates' hearings to be held behind closed doors.

    But on Thursday, the UK's chief magistrate, Judge Goldspring, declared six test cases as void, external, saying the process should never have been used."

    Good good, TV licenses next please.

    Allowing someone to be convicted of a criminal offence without a hearing is a miscarriage of justice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    Driver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    Whilst that's true, there's surely a fairly significant number of people out there who vote Tory more often than not but couldn't support them in July for various reasons who would be expected to drift back as the farce of the last few years fades into memory - at least if they avoid picking Patel as leader.
    These are people who voted Conservative in 2019 and who switched variously to Reform, Lib Dem and Labour. They would need a reason to switch back again where those reasons are different for each party they have switched to. A challenge the Conservatives don't appear even to be aware of. Albeit it is early days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,687
    HYUFD said:

    'Harrismania' is hugely overblown, and Trump's chances are being understated.

    1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s

    2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris

    3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters

    4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal

    Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794

    Show me where recent polling gives Trump an edge with independents....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,801
    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    Whilst that's true, there's surely a fairly significant number of people out there who vote Tory more often than not but couldn't support them in July for various reasons who would be expected to drift back as the farce of the last few years fades into memory - at least if they avoid picking Patel as leader.
    These are people who voted Conservative in 2019 and who switched variously to Reform, Lib Dem and Labour. They would need a reason to switch back again where those reasons are different for each party they have switched to. A challenge the Conservatives don't appear even to be aware of. Albeit it is early days.
    Targeting the people who voted Tory in 2019 would be a big mistake. 2019 was an unusual election. 2010 is the best guide in my view.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
    Essex keep talking about moving too. Current ground's small, but bang in the middle of Chelmsford.
    Thing is, most of these grounds date from the 19th century. When cities were quite a bit smaller so they were on the edge. Now, for example, Bristol is barely considered even in the suburbs. It's in the inner city.

    And the access is poor.

    Hampshire moved a few years ago and it was an excellent decision. They've got one of the best grounds in the country now with superb ancillary facilities that make them serious money, and it's probably not a coincidence they've re-emerged as a serious force in the game as well.
    I’d be very sad if Kent moved. It’s very much in the suburbs of Canterbury still. Kent are shite though.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 186
    HYUFD said:

    'Harrismania' is hugely overblown, and Trump's chances are being understated.

    1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s

    2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris

    3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters

    4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal

    Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794

    you must be getting worried now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536
    Talking of Raygun, this was amusing

    https://x.com/defiantls/status/1823861852524499147?s=61
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,449
    ...

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    Morale is about objectives and leadership. Pay rises buy people off temporarily but if nothing else improves it soon sinks back. In this case nothing has changed.
    That's a very narrow minded view, particularly in the light that in many of these cases safety was also an issue on the table.

    When it comes down to doctors, nurses and teachers, pissing them off so royally that they leave the sector and even the country, is doing nothing for productivity.
    You see pay as the issue I dont. The pay is a symptom of poor organisation. If we trained enough doctors and nurses we wouldnt have the problems we have. A 22% pay rise will not solve the doctor problem. Training more doctors will.
    You are seeing supply and demand economics as an answer to, for example, a shortage of Junior Doctors. Adding to the supply would indeed in theory bring wages down. In the same way Stellantis have built lots of Vauxhall cars that they can't sell, so to sell them they discount the prices, but that doesn't work with Junior Doctors. If the demand in the UK for Doctors decreases they **** off to somewhere else to achieve their self-perceived value.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    In the nicest possible way... This looks like Conservatives who haven't taken on board that they're in opposition for the longish haul.

    If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.

    And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.

    It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.

    Leader's first task is to make sure they don't go backwards and end up 3rd in seats to the Lib Dems or 3rd behind the popular vote to Reform. Or both !

    The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
    Whilst that's true, there's surely a fairly significant number of people out there who vote Tory more often than not but couldn't support them in July for various reasons who would be expected to drift back as the farce of the last few years fades into memory - at least if they avoid picking Patel as leader.
    These are people who voted Conservative in 2019 and who switched variously to Reform, Lib Dem and Labour. They would need a reason to switch back again where those reasons are different for each party they have switched to. A challenge the Conservatives don't appear even to be aware of. Albeit it is early days.
    Fighting on three broad fronts is a blooming difficult problem.

    Especially when your rivals don't have it. (The Venn diagram of seats Labour and the Lib Dems are interested in has hardly any overlap, and Reform vs Labour is a dog that hasn't really barked so far.)

    And especially when your party has next to no experience of that tricky game.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,755
    kenObi said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Harrismania' is hugely overblown, and Trump's chances are being understated.

    1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s

    2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris

    3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters

    4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal

    Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794

    you must be getting worried now.
    HY is brilliant at sifting through the polls and terrible at drawing sensible conclusions.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    kinabalu said:

    Re Tory Leader. I think the safe choice (regroup, stabilise, stop digging) is Cleverly. But they'll probably want to be more aspirational than that. In which case (if I had a vote) I'd apply some horse racing analysis. DecrepiterJohnL, Stodge, Peter_the_Punter, these sorts will get my drift here. So you pass over the horses that are well tried with their best form not good enough to win and you look for one that is just coming through, has maybe shown flashes but is what they call "unexposed", meaning hasn't really been tested yet and could be, COULD be, better than the form in the book. For me, in this (as it were) Conservative Leadership Selling Plate sponsored by Chums, that horse is probably Robert Jenrick.

    I would probably go for Patel. I can't stand her politics but leader of a party moving from government to opposition isn't about politics. It's about shaping the party to take advantage of any change in the political environment as it happens. Only Patel of the six candidates appears to have a clue what needs to be done to fix the problems in the party
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,433

    ...

    Rachel Reeves is a waste of space.

    Still spitting the dummy out because your team were well beaten?
    Oh now your just plain boring. I didnt vote in the last election. But its for you to justify the failures of this government for the next 5 years.

    Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.

    But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
    How well do you think productivity was rolling along with train strikes, NHS strikes and academics striking?
    LOL youre only debating how fast public sector productivity will fall.
    No I am not. I am suggesting that with improved morale comes improved performance
    Morale is about objectives and leadership. Pay rises buy people off temporarily but if nothing else improves it soon sinks back. In this case nothing has changed.
    That's a very narrow minded view, particularly in the light that in many of these cases safety was also an issue on the table.

    When it comes down to doctors, nurses and teachers, pissing them off so royally that they leave the sector and even the country, is doing nothing for productivity.
    You see pay as the issue I dont. The pay is a symptom of poor organisation. If we trained enough doctors and nurses we wouldnt have the problems we have. A 22% pay rise will not solve the doctor problem. Training more doctors will.
    You are seeing supply and demand economics as an answer to, for example, a shortage of Junior Doctors. Adding to the supply would indeed in theory bring wages down. In the same way Stellantis have built lots of Vauxhall cars that they can't sell, so to sell them they discount the prices, but that doesn't work with Junior Doctors. If the demand in the UK for Doctors decreases they **** off to somewhere else to achieve their self-perceived value.

    Actually I dont. I see a government prepared to raise its labour bill by 22%. It will spend the money and nothing will change the doctors have already said they will be back for more. If they re going to spend the money they should give them a pay rise in line with inflation and spend say 12% on more doctors. With more doctors they can then treat more patients and also address the ridiculous working hours some doctors have to work to keep the system functioning. And if they are recruiting they should perhaps consider recruiting less women doctors.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    At New Road, Kasey Aldridge is doing his chances of playing Tests this summer no harm at all. 1-20 off six overs and an excellent 78 off 96 to lift England Lions from 190-6 to 324 all out.

    New Road was a wonderful ground. Almost like a village green and then they stuck up that God awful stand on New Road. I hear Ashley Giles is talking about moving "New Road" out of the city due to flooding, and they are already playing in Kiddy for the early season games.
    Yes.

    Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.

    A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.

    Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
    Putting it in Norton would make some sense. Just off Junction 7 of the M5 and handy for the new "railway station from nowhere".
    Essex keep talking about moving too. Current ground's small, but bang in the middle of Chelmsford.
    Presumably they could make tens of millions selling off the ground for blocks of river view apartments to be built on the site, and find another site that’s currently a random field a mile out of town? Not an easy decision to make, especially when the money is being dangled in front of you.
    It's access that's the big issue. At the moment it's good for bus, train and car, and foot from the City centre.
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