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How the Tories may deal with two massive elections at the same time and a budget
How the Tories may deal with two massive elections at the same time and a budget– politicalbetting.com
EXC: Senior Tories plotting bringing forward leadership result to allow new boss to respond to budget on October 30. Despite mealy mouthed denials this morning, multiple sources confirm this was still being discussed at top of party yesterday. https://t.co/eUVhr2qwFp
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Though you can't plan for unexpected events, eg when IDS was elected party leader in 2001 it was overshadowed by September 11th a few days before
He’s going to be by far the most capable of all the possibilities, to understand the nuances of the Budget book almost immediately, having been on the other side of the debate on a handful of occasions already.
It started to appear 30 odd years ago when I was doing my (Economics Desmond) degree.
But at the time maths had to be done manually so ecometrics was a very minor bit of the course. The few times computers appeared I ended up doing IT support and Lotus 123 for total dummies training for those on the course I liked.
If things go badly for the government, the next election is May 2029. The window from May 2028 to then is what all the parties should be thinking about.
And the Leader of the Opposition's response to a Budget speech is like doing a wee while wearing a dark suit. Nobody will notice.
It doesn't matter how brilliantly the Magnificent One Hundred and Twenty One perform; the government is basically going to do whatever it wants for the next few years.
1. She has picked up big support with younger voters and Black voters but she is below Hillary Clinton levels with whites, Hispanics, and over-50s
2. Trump's base is still hugely energised and still has a small enthusiasm edge on Harris
3. Trump holds the 'holy trinity' of political attributes, being seen as more 'strong', more likely to 'get things done' and as best on the economy by voters
4. Independents are either split or give Trump a narrow edge -- and their main concern about Harris is that she is too liberal
Yes she has tightened the race but in my view Trump still has the edge.'
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1824082756864794794
Although in all the excitement he forgot to claim his "first".
I wonder what it's like now as an undergraduate? Obviously much faster for biophysical work on macromolecules - no expanded polystyrene or layered perspex models nowadays - but even core courses must be different.
The Conservatives still have the very oldest voters so the start point for the next GE is actuarially slightly behind where they are now.
Keir Starmer
childhood harmer.
but then Reeves is so shite it was a shame to pass over her,
If he cannot book up venues, how can he organise his rallies?
In 2029.
(The other possibly is that they are playing the Scrooge/Santa game that all politically astute governments play. Much too early to say.)
The figures for the previous poll on Wikipedia are completely wrong. That poll had, excluding Don't Knows and Would Not Votes - Labour 36%, Conservatives 22%, Reform 17%, Liberal Democrats 11% and Greens 7% with 3% opting for "an Independent Candidate".
The current offering has Labour 33% (-3), Reform 21% (+4), Conservatives 20% (-2), Liberal Democrats 11% (nc), Greens 8% (+1) and Independent 3% (nc)
The final We Think poll before the GE underestimated BOTH the Conservatives and LDs by one and a half percent and Others by two and a half percent while overestimating Labour by five and a half percent. My thought is the pollsters missed the strength of the "Independent" vote in some inner urban Labour seats and also missed the abstention among likely Labour voters which I've seen at anything up to 1.7 million people.
We can therefore argue the Conservatives were, to an extent, "saved" by Labour supporters not bothering to vote - why they didn't bother is or should be a subject for much research.
The current poll has a very small sample but the England sub sample (just a bit of fun, as Mr P. Snow used to say) has Labour on 34% (-1), Conservative 22% (-4), Reform 21% (+6), Liberal Democrats 11% (-2), Greens 8% (+1) and Independents 3% (+1) - changes reflecting rounding and from the GE.
I suspect, second only to Farage's victory in Clacton that was the second biggest disappointment for anyone who wasn't on the extreme right of the Conservative Party on July 5th
Massive public sector pay rises with no productivity attached ? We all know the outcome.
But I'll leave to you to justify closing down the North Sea and putting Scots out of work. Off you go.
https://x.com/macroalf/status/1824051303896539197
https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2024/08/government-as-household-if-only.html
Having said that, Reeves' sin is to be too much like George Osborne and the Conservative alternatives are at least as bad
Truss tried the worse ones. Sunak the bad ones. Reeves will likely have to continue with at least large elements of Sunak's policy. It remains to be seen how many of the 'worse' ideas of her own she comes up with (if any) to add to the VAT on private school fees already announced.
And I would expect train reliability to improve if ASLEF are quiet for a bit. But they specialise in not being quiet for a bit.
But I think TUs are one of Mr Starmer's potential elephant traps; some reform has been promised, but they won't be happy if he leaves the Thatcher changes in place.
Can't blame them for wanting to move either. I think the square was under water for all bar about three weeks of the winter. That's not fair on the club. Kidderminster isn't a bad ground but it's not got the facilities or the access of New Road. Better to sell the land for car parking and move to the east of the city, near the M5 and the railway.
A shame, because it's an iconic ground, but an iconic ground that's constantly under two feet of water is no good to man nor ECB.
Glos are looking at moving too, for the slightly different reason that the ground's very cramped, access is terrible and the pitch is desperately slow.
But when I looked in the dictionary it was in the C section.
2. The productivity improvement is because they're no longer on strike
3. Many of the strikes have been in protest at wazzock management by things like the DfT which have wrecked productivity by (as an example) dictating to Transpennine Express management that they should reduce traincrew route knowledge so that a Newcastle - Liverpool train needs 2 changes of driver and conductor en-route
" Give the barstewards a good kick and they'll work harder".
Barred Candy
Not a Priti picture
The Tory leadership race is hotting up, but things aren't looking too rosy for Priti Patel.
Tory party donors who were formerly Team Boris are refusing to get behind Priti because of her links to the Partygate leak. Her top spin doctor James Starkie was the one they suspect sent the Mirror the infamous CCHQ photo of a lockdown Christmas party - the first domino in the chain that eventually toppled BoJo.
Starkie is so reviled in those circles he's suffered an extremely Tory punishment. Nick Candy - billionaire and husband of Holly Valance - has had him banned from various clubs in London.
Lotus 123 came out more than 40 years ago.
Are you sure it wasn't an archaeology course?
One speculation was that they would be used like as Conqueror/M103 heavy tanks were supposed to be used - long range backup for attacks by the regular MBTs.
In the last hour, I've seen the same video twice. It shows a ground-based missile system being destroyed. One tweet stated that it was a Ukrainian HIMARS system; the other that it was a Russian Iskander.
I've nowhere near the skill to tell what the system is from the grainy video.
On the other hand do you buy scotch eggs ? I could maybe do you a deal.
Never caught one on time.
We use the X21 bus now. Zips through.
Power cuts ahoy.
When it comes down to doctors, nurses and teachers, pissing them off so royally that they leave the sector and even the country, is doing nothing for national productivity.
And the access is poor.
Hampshire moved a few years ago and it was an excellent decision. They've got one of the best grounds in the country now with superb ancillary facilities that make them serious money, and it's probably not a coincidence they've re-emerged as a serious force in the game as well.
Challenger (please correct me if I'm wrong) was a tank-on-tank design. I'm not sure there's been much of that at all has there?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyx0p18kq74o
"As many as 74,000 prosecutions for alleged rail fare evasion in England and Wales are set to be quashed following a landmark ruling.
UK rail companies had been fast-tracking alleged ticket dodging offences using a process called the single justice procedure (SJP), which allows magistrates' hearings to be held behind closed doors.
But on Thursday, the UK's chief magistrate, Judge Goldspring, declared six test cases as void, external, saying the process should never have been used."
Allowing someone to be convicted of a criminal offence without a hearing is a miscarriage of justice.
https://x.com/defiantls/status/1823861852524499147?s=61
Especially when your rivals don't have it. (The Venn diagram of seats Labour and the Lib Dems are interested in has hardly any overlap, and Reform vs Labour is a dog that hasn't really barked so far.)
And especially when your party has next to no experience of that tricky game.