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Something weird may be happening – politicalbetting.com
Something weird may be happening – politicalbetting.com
If North Carolina is tied, Trump is in serious trouble. https://t.co/VE59m3KTBA
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Interesting spin on why Trump is holding so few rallies: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/11/2262167/-Deadbeat-Don-Why-He-s-Not-Holding-Rallies?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Basically, he left a strew of unpaid bills across the country in 2016 and 2020 and very few towns will allow him to hold one without paying all the clean up costs up front because he doesn't pay his bills.
Of course he was also famous for not paying his lawyers bills (a truly shocking flaw) but he now needs them much more than they need him so they are getting the priority on available cash.
It also makes ensuring security for the events a lot more problematic.
If, of course, he's able to hold these states by thin margins it does bring voter efficiency into the equation.
Also apparently being sued for playing unlicensed music at the rallies
https://x.com/NotHoodlum/status/1822365962303340774
Worrying that these people are so far gone I felt the need to check though.
The Trump campaign has been praised as tighter – but when Harris became the opponent, it lost control of its candidate
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/11/trump-campaign-discipline-struggles-harris-biden
By whom ?
And they can't mean pissed, given he doesn't drink alcohol.
Given her previous comments, it's a pretty credible effort. Bonus points for the background pic.
"And so they’re name-calling instead of actually telling the American people how they’re going to make their lives better. I think that’s weird, Dana, but look, they can call me whatever they want to.”
This wit and insight was brought to you by Senator JD Vance, who also gave you this:
"We are effectively run in this country…by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made. And they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.”
In a career full of stupid decisions, Trump's tapping of Vance as running mate must be up there with the stupidest.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/11/vance-targets-harris-walz
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.230123396
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Results_by_state
And if we are looking at states that flip blue with a significant lead maybe South Carolina too, which has been drifting away from the Republicans for years and has a significant African-American vote.
"Nobody has crowds like I do, you know that...I don't know who's ever had bigger crowds. Nobody has spoken to crowds bigger than me."
He gets so triggered by crowd sizes that has also bought in to some dude on the internet claiming Harris's rally was AI'd. (It wasn't...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gegb6scbbj4
For example, button mushrooms.
The state polling is always worth following in such tight races.
The problem is that the number of decent polls even in the swing states is low. The number outside that….
Don't like the man and annoy his supporters by comparing him to Trump, but Corbyn addressed a crowd estimated at over a million on 15th Feb 2003 as part of a Stop the War protest.
I'm on at 5.5, but there's no volume.
Nothing personal. Biden was inevitable (until he wasn't) as the best man to stop Trump. See also Johnson in 2019.
But take the inevitability away, and the fundamental merits of the situation matter again. And while the fundamentals don't all go one way, there's no escaping the observation that this version of Trump is a pretty terrible candidate.
Biden won Virginia 2020 by 9.4% so shouldn't really be in play.
Now the fix here is simple, once booked don't allow the licence number to be changed - that would make booking them in advance and changing the number pointless.
And if an appointment is cancelled it can just go back into the pot, if rebooked the originally booker is refunded, if not tough luck
But the bet is being suggested mainly on the basis of his losing the popular vote, but scraping an EC win. As a hedge for a pro Harris book, it's not terrible.
Thought at 3, I'm not tempted..
... The companies use ‘bots’, external which input data more quickly than a human can, so they’re able to secure test dates before those without the software.
I'd favour summary execution for the block bookers as these are the fiends that make those god awful captcha tests a potential get out against the bots.
(approx 8.12am)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
That's where Brighton Greens got it wrong a decade ago, when the Councillors tried to ban bacon butties for bin men.
I think one area we need to look at is dogs off leads in public environments, which is one of those things that causes real problems despite "close control" being a legal requirement. "He's only being friendly" is what some dog owners always reliably say immediately before their hound bites you.
I think one trigger will be in the needed debate about countryside access, and within that the many thousands of livestock killed by "pet" dogs every year. 15,000 or so sheep a year, for example, are killed by dog owners with their dogs (I use that form as the agency and responsibility is with the owner).
The whole article is worth a read.
https://amwaj.media/article/inside-story-zarif-leaves-iran-s-new-government
In a shock move, former Iranian chief diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif has resigned from the Masoud Pezeshkian administration. The move comes less than two weeks after the recently-elected Reformist president named Zarif as his deputy for strategic affairs.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, senior informed sources in Tehran told Amwaj.media that the resignation is driven by deep disappointment with Pezeshkian’s decision to largely ignore the recommendations of the transition team. Additionally, behind the scenes, there has been disarray over an apparent hardliner attempt to push Zarif out of office through a law barring officials with ties to the west.
The senior sources said Zarif tendered his resignation as early as Aug. 3, informing the president on Aug. 11—in connection with the publicization of ministerial nominees—that he would return to teaching at Tehran University.
The departure of the political heavyweight comes amid widespread disappointment with Pezeshkian’s cabinet picks. Supporters of the administration say the president has failed to keep his promise of forming a younger and more inclusive government. In this context, the loss of Zarif—the president’s effective running mate during campaigning—could be catastrophic for Pezeshkian’s popular mandate.
Loath to enter domestic politics and reviled by conservatives, Zarif—still among few political figures able to electrify a sizable segment of Iran’s electorate—declined to enter the 2021 presidential race. After conservative President Ebrahim Raisi died in a sudden helicopter crash in May this year, the former top diplomat again did not register to contest snap polls.
However, things changed when Pezeshkian, a prominent MP backed by the Reformist camp, was unexpectedly cleared to run by the Guardian Council. Facing four conservatives, the Pezeshkian campaign sputtered at first. But the situation shifted rapidly when Zarif joined the race, and with fervor. Touring the country and appearing on televised presidential debates to attack conservatives and defend his own record, the former chief diplomat in many ways became the person that Pezeshkian’s supporters really voted for...
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1822905091881341393
Everyone who, extremely foolishly and with significant damage to their long term reputation, stated that Ukraine had stopped advancing because the **FSB PROPAGANDA** said so can rest assured that, no, Ukraine is continuing to advance in Kursk.
...
Calocane was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia in 2020 and was sectioned four times in less than two years.
In June 2023, he went on a rampage through the streets of Nottingham, killing students Barnaby Webber and Grace O’Malley-Kumar, both aged 19, with a knife as they returned from a night out, before stabbing to death Ian Coates, 65, near the school where he worked as a caretaker.
Calocane then stole his van and crashed into three other people, inflicting serious injuries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990rmvy4ero
Panorama, 8pm BBC1 tonight.
But in circumstances where Harris was trading at 1.5 rather than around evens, it might be worth considering.
I will not be surprised to see Ohio tied or better for Harris after the Convention.
Why his advisors are so worried is because there is no positive narrative coming out of the Trump campaign. No policies are being brought forward. Just Trump's paranoia that his showman schtick is failing. He is now reduced to being the centre of attention only because he is coming out with frankly risible nonsense about how many people want to turn up to see him versus Harris-Walz or even MLK Jnr. Whilst we can see the level of enthusiasm for Harris and Walz's "tour of joy" around the swing states, we just have to take Trump's word for the continuing love for him because there are no empirical ways of measuring it.
And you have to hand it to him, he kept it going after... you know... losing in
2020. It's a definite political superpower. So whilst I would like to think that Hans Christian Andersen finally applies to Trump, I'll only believe it when I see it.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1822415809911599431 /
This is the funniest war story since the Wagner idiots tried to run to Moscow to stage a coup last year.
The FSB will be way more concerned by the need to keep a lid on the story, than in either retaking any land nor caring for the evacuees, although they will be a little confused as to why the Ukranians aren’t deliberately targeting civilians.
The RSPCA/SSPCA should be shouting from the rooftops about that.
No easy ways to handle this kind of thing.
Close relatives have been through the mill with childrens services because one doctor was convinced my nephew had harmed his child and was a danger. Utter bollocks. However my nephew has a record (accepted a caution for smoking weed while in possession of a knife - he's a tree surgeon and it was in his car for work). But he is immediately tarred by the system, to the extent that the judge in the case openly said he thought my nephew was a liar and lying about things. I think its all ben rubbish, but I can see how the case presents. None of this is easy.
Our NPs aren't specifically for wildlife, but areas with vulnerable animals (Capercaillie etc) should be protected imo. I would extend that to fields with livestock - no dogs, no exceptions.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/mi5-scrutinise-tommy-robinson-funding-nigel-farage-hffj9drjl
If true, then it marks a new determination to fight back against Russian subversion of our democracy.
If the allegations are true, then some prominent figures could well be going to face very long jail sentences.
Trump currently leads North Carolina by 3.2% in the RCP average, although it would be tighter after the newer poll and Trump leads his VP Nominee JD Vance's Ohio by 11.5%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/ohio/trump-vs-harris
It may be that Harris' vote with Walz is more efficient than Hillary's was with Kaine in 2016 though, even if she is still behind the 306 EC votes Biden won in 2020 to beat Trump. For instance Trump leads the EC overall by only 287 to 251 for Harris compared to the 307 to 227 margin he beat Hillary Clinton by in 2016. Yet in the national popular vote Harris leads Trump by only 0.8% on average compared to the 2.1% lead Hillary had over Trump in the popular vote in 2016
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
I am fully in favour of dog owners being responsible, and get nervous myself of bigger dogs not under proper control. I keep my dog on a lead if there are other people about, particularly children. Dogs should be chipped and licensed and owners legally liable for their dogs actions.
https://nationalsheep.org.uk/for-the-public/culture/sheep-worrying/survey-results/
Seems somewhat on the high side to me, FWIW.
But given there are over 30m sheep in the UK, it's not impossible.
I was very shy when young re talking to girls. I was scared and got tongue tied. A dog would have been a godsend. I met so many young ladies now it is far too late.
His net favorability at this point in 2016 was nearer -30 in the 538 average.
One reason both North Carolina and Ohio are pretty good options are that they have major state-wide races that look competitive in 2024 so Democrats will be campaigning hard anyway. Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election as Senator in Ohio, and Josh Stein to succeed his colleague Roy Cooper as Governor - both are narrow favourites, so Trump will be asking their voters to split the ballot. They both also have serious numbers of electoral votes.
Ignoring Maine's second district (just one electoral college vote) the top five most marginal states carried by Trump are those two plus Texas, Florida and Iowa. Iowa is small, trending against the Democrats, and has no Senate/Governor election in 2024. Texas doesn't look massively competitive for the Senate election, and although it's closer in Florida, Rick Scott has to be a pretty clear favourite.
Small punts.
'Until one has loved an animal a part of one's soul remains unawakened'
That's a quote from somewhere that I'd have scoffed at. But no longer.
I'll post a photo of him at some point if I can figure how to do it - then whenever I talk about 'my cat' people will be able to picture him.
Here's a very long podcast with US pollster Tom Bonier. Gets into detail of current polls at around 45 minutes in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsZDSGytRWw
My cousin has a cross between a Shitzu and a Poodle, and I am threatened with expulsion from the premises should I use the correct, tautological, name (cousin is very polite).
Yes - dogs are good for starting up conversations.
(Nixon of course lost in 1960 to a challenger, narrowly. But Kennedy wasn't a retread.)
www.270towin.com looks reasonable, with a running list of the most recent polls https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/
Here's one of the less known ones.
..Many years later, it was revealed that during the campaign Stevenson was approached by Soviet Ambassador Menshikov who offered Soviet financial and public relations help to assist him in getting elected if he decided to run. Stevenson flatly rejected the Soviet offer, telling Menshikov that he "considered the offer of such assistance highly improper, indiscreet and dangerous to all concerned". Stevenson then reported the incident directly to President Eisenhower...
Just because he's "friendly" to the owner doesn't mean that he's not a threat to anyone else.
Dogs are animals and should be on leads by default.
On the other side Georgia should go back to the Reps - they really were taken by surprise last time.
On vote efficiency. Polls suggest the Dems are leading on that one too. If they win all the swing states bar Georgia and are in a recount for North Carolina then that might be the poster child for vote efficiency.
Hence why abortion and similar referendums are vote winners, they get the people most likely to vote for you into the voting booth.
https://www.battens.co.uk/insights/sheep-worrying-and-the-law#:~:text=It is claimed that approximately,Injury need not be visible.
I'll give you "up to" on that estimate, but it's not the highest one.
Here's a number from the National Animal Welfare Trust, which quotes ~2500 in specific reports, which will be a fraction.
https://www.nawt.org.uk/news/keeping-your-dog-and-livestock-safe/
Here's a Scottish Govt doc quoting an estimate of 18,500 in 2015 (which includes other livestock) from the National Farmers Union insurance company, who should know:
On the basis of insurance claims in 2015, NFU mutual estimated that 18,500 livestock (in the UK) had been killed by dogs, costing £1.1m (up 35% on the previous year).[6] This had risen further to £1.6m by 2017.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/sheep-attacks-harassment-research/pages/2/
!5,000 is in the ballpark, but data is not *that* extensive; I've occasionally gone looking for it over the last few years.
We now have many more (maybe a quarter to a third more) dogs in the national pack than before COVID, so it is likely to be increasing.
One problem is ignorance. "He ran them around a bit" is thought of as innocent, but can cause many deaths through stress etc.