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Something weird may be happening – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    "We entered Russian territory for the first time at 1pm on Tuesday," Volodymyr said. "We were among the first to enter." They encountered a Russian unit "sitting in the forest, drinking coffee at a table."
    "Then our Stryker drives right into their table."

    https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1822993016837091372
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    That is self-serving baloney. You pollute the environment way more than my cat. Not just on the carbon front either, also the realm of public discourse. Eg my cat has never to my knowledge spread lies on the internet intended to foment racial unrest.

    (conscious I owe you a photo of him btw - it's coming it's coming)
    Just accept you're a total hypocrite. You know it already, you just need to make that last move. Then you will feel better
    Hardly. Unless you have an instance of me saying I disapprove of people having a cat.

    You're quite a humourless and judgy old fruit sometimes, aren't you?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Nigelb said:

    A SUBMARINE captain has been sacked for making a sex tape while in command of Trident 2 nuclear missiles.
    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1822916463990030363

    Explosive footage?
    Whoever has the copyright of the Karma Sutra may need a new edition.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    That is self-serving baloney. You pollute the environment way more than my cat. Not just on the carbon front either, also the realm of public discourse. Eg my cat has never to my knowledge spread lies on the internet intended to foment racial unrest.

    (conscious I owe you a photo of him btw - it's coming it's coming)
    Just accept you're a total hypocrite. You know it already, you just need to make that last move. Then you will feel better
    Hardly. Unless you have an instance of me saying I disapprove of people having a cat.

    You're quite a humourless and judgy old fruit sometimes, aren't you?
    "You're quite a humourless and judgy old fruit sometimes, aren't you?"

    In psychology, projection is a defense mechanism where people attribute their own thoughts, feelings, or traits to someone else. It can be conscious or unconscious

    "fruit"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Labelling them the "Nerd Reich" is not unjustified hyperbole.

    @JDVance owner Peter Thiel, says America is like Weimar Germany in the 1920s:
    “Liberalism is exhausted… Democracy whatever that is, is exhausted… so we have to start talking far outside the Overton Window.”...

    ..To make this super clear, Thiel’s doing this at a talk to promote German philosopher Carl Schmitt, who was a prominent member of the Nazi Party...

    https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/1820276284888650102
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    Unless you're a slave, your job is your choice too.

    Anyway, I accept you do you bit for the environment by not having a pet and that offsets to some extent the ridiculous amount of flying you do.

    We don't fly, that offsets our pet.

    Now, stop trying to interfere with everyone else's lives.
    Interfere with people's lives is what lefties DO

    And cats and dogs are killing all the wildlife and destroying our rivers, so no, I won't shut up
    I wonder whether social media has anything to do with the burgeoning number of mutts and kitties. People just seem to love putting "cute" posts of their pets doing amusing things, or adopting poignant/wistful attitudes. Anthropomorphism gone mad.
    The pandemic saw a big upsurge in the number of pet owners - such that somewhere around about two thirds of UK households now have one - with demand and hence prices sky-rocketing. Since the pandemic ended this has gone into reverse, and many dog refuges are full.

    For those suddenly concerned about the environment, remember that having children, travelling the world, and eating lots of meat are all optional.
    Thank f*ck they are still optional, and not yet banned.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    Labelling them the "Nerd Reich" is not unjustified hyperbole.

    @JDVance owner Peter Thiel, says America is like Weimar Germany in the 1920s:
    “Liberalism is exhausted… Democracy whatever that is, is exhausted… so we have to start talking far outside the Overton Window.”...

    ..To make this super clear, Thiel’s doing this at a talk to promote German philosopher Carl Schmitt, who was a prominent member of the Nazi Party...

    https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/1820276284888650102

    "Nerd Reich" is also a good and clever nickname. Yours?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    I’m sticking to my much mocked long-standing prediction that neither Trumpton nor Biden will run. I know @kinabalu made a similar gambit.

    No idea how it happens, but I’m sticking to it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    Unless you're a slave, your job is your choice too.

    Anyway, I accept you do you bit for the environment by not having a pet and that offsets to some extent the ridiculous amount of flying you do.

    We don't fly, that offsets our pet.

    Now, stop trying to interfere with everyone else's lives.
    Interfere with people's lives is what lefties DO

    And cats and dogs are killing all the wildlife and destroying our rivers, so no, I won't shut up
    I wonder whether social media has anything to do with the burgeoning number of mutts and kitties. People just seem to love putting "cute" posts of their pets doing amusing things, or adopting poignant/wistful attitudes. Anthropomorphism gone mad.
    The pandemic saw a big upsurge in the number of pet owners - such that somewhere around about two thirds of UK households now have one - with demand and hence prices sky-rocketing. Since the pandemic ended this has gone into reverse, and many dog refuges are full.

    For those suddenly concerned about the environment, remember that having children, travelling the world, and eating lots of meat are all optional.
    Thank f*ck they are still optional, and not yet banned.
    Or compulsory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    Nigelb said:

    A SUBMARINE captain has been sacked for making a sex tape while in command of Trident 2 nuclear missiles.
    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1822916463990030363

    Where on earth did he find the space?
    A friend had a threesome in a single bed, anything is possible when passions are stirring.
    Nick?
    Did you mean to type Nice?
    Nope.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Nigelb said:

    Labelling them the "Nerd Reich" is not unjustified hyperbole.

    @JDVance owner Peter Thiel, says America is like Weimar Germany in the 1920s:
    “Liberalism is exhausted… Democracy whatever that is, is exhausted… so we have to start talking far outside the Overton Window.”...

    ..To make this super clear, Thiel’s doing this at a talk to promote German philosopher Carl Schmitt, who was a prominent member of the Nazi Party...

    https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/1820276284888650102

    And we have sold all the NHS patient data to his company.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/21/palantir-peter-thiel-nhs-natural-target-outspoken-tech-billionaire

    Tomorrow belongs to him. Because we sold it to him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Labelling them the "Nerd Reich" is not unjustified hyperbole.

    @JDVance owner Peter Thiel, says America is like Weimar Germany in the 1920s:
    “Liberalism is exhausted… Democracy whatever that is, is exhausted… so we have to start talking far outside the Overton Window.”...

    ..To make this super clear, Thiel’s doing this at a talk to promote German philosopher Carl Schmitt, who was a prominent member of the Nazi Party...

    https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/1820276284888650102

    "Nerd Reich" is also a good and clever nickname. Yours?
    Sadly, no; it's been around for a little while.
    Just trying to do my bit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    I’m sticking to my much mocked long-standing prediction that neither Trumpton nor Biden will run. I know @kinabalu made a similar gambit.

    No idea how it happens, but I’m sticking to it.

    If Vance ends up being POTUS I will be richer than Croesus.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    'BORIS JOHNSON SLAMS STARMER FOR BRANDING ANTI-IMMIGRATION PROTESTERS AS FAR-RIGHT EXTREMISTS

    Johnson used his editorial column to pen an open letter to the UK's new PM, Keir Starmer, criticizing his branding of the public's concern over immigration as far-right extremism.

    "I saw an astonishing statistic that 34% of the public actually support the protests – if not the violence associated with it.

    Does that mean that more than a third of the UK population are 'far-right' in their views?

    Nothing excuses the behavior of the rioters, and they deserve to be banged up.

    But nothing excuses a Government that seems deaf to public concerns, and that suggests, moreover, that they actively dislike all members of the public who share those concerns."
    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1822285946017947779

    'Good for @BorisJohnson'
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1822296775736152553

    The 34% of the UK population support the protests. This includes most Reform voters and half of Conservatives, per the YouGov analysis.

    Johnson doesn't mention the 66% of the population who want nothing to do with any of it. This is everyone else. The Tories will deservedly be out of power until they face up to their racism problem.

    Not true

    "Sympathies with the views of those taking part in the protests are somewhat broader – six in ten Britons (58%) say they have a great deal or fair amount of sympathy for the views of those peacefully taking part in demonstrations that were ostensibly triggered by the Southport murders. This includes majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters (53-56%), as well as two-thirds of Conservatives (64%), with Reform voters are most sympathetic at 83%."

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50257-the-public-reaction-to-the-2024-riots
    It's not clear who YouGov and the responders replying to the survey think were taking part in "peaceful demonstrations" about Southport but to Johnson's point about supporting the protests if not the violence, YouGov says this:

    Two-thirds of Britons say the unrest is caused by thugs and rioters, with only one in six saying they have legitimate concerns
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Nigelb said:

    Labelling them the "Nerd Reich" is not unjustified hyperbole.

    @JDVance owner Peter Thiel, says America is like Weimar Germany in the 1920s:
    “Liberalism is exhausted… Democracy whatever that is, is exhausted… so we have to start talking far outside the Overton Window.”...

    ..To make this super clear, Thiel’s doing this at a talk to promote German philosopher Carl Schmitt, who was a prominent member of the Nazi Party...

    https://x.com/jimstewartson/status/1820276284888650102

    Not weird at all.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Nigelb said:

    A SUBMARINE captain has been sacked for making a sex tape while in command of Trident 2 nuclear missiles.
    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1822916463990030363

    Lucky there wasn't a magazine explosion!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    That is self-serving baloney. You pollute the environment way more than my cat. Not just on the carbon front either, also the realm of public discourse. Eg my cat has never to my knowledge spread lies on the internet intended to foment racial unrest.

    (conscious I owe you a photo of him btw - it's coming it's coming)
    Just accept you're a total hypocrite. You know it already, you just need to make that last move. Then you will feel better
    Hardly. Unless you have an instance of me saying I disapprove of people having a cat.

    You're quite a humourless and judgy old fruit sometimes, aren't you?
    "You're quite a humourless and judgy old fruit sometimes, aren't you?"

    In psychology, projection is a defense mechanism where people attribute their own thoughts, feelings, or traits to someone else. It can be conscious or unconscious

    "fruit"
    But I'm not thinking about fruit. I rarely do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Nigelb said:

    "We entered Russian territory for the first time at 1pm on Tuesday," Volodymyr said. "We were among the first to enter." They encountered a Russian unit "sitting in the forest, drinking coffee at a table."
    "Then our Stryker drives right into their table."

    https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1822993016837091372

    The Ukrainians have been going to remarkable lengths to bring it home to the Russians that war is not restricted to the soil of Ukraine. They have also attacked Russian forces in Africa.

    This latest seems to have been a remarkably successful attack. I have read it is because the Russians had their border guarded by very low quality units with older versions of drones (that is more than 6 months old) which are easy to block with ECMs leaving the Russians blind on the ground.

    Given that it takes the MOD way more than a decade to get most new weapons into operational use we should not be overly smug about this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Nigelb said:

    A SUBMARINE captain has been sacked for making a sex tape while in command of Trident 2 nuclear missiles.
    https://x.com/jeromestarkey/status/1822916463990030363

    Lucky there wasn't a magazine explosion!
    Torpedoed his career...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    NEW THREAD

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Someone pointed out to me that Musk said earlier this year "we are all descendants from slaves"

    So I was checking who of Musk's ancestors was a slave, but so far I've only discovered that his grandfather was a racist antisemitic apartheid-loving believer in conspiracy theories (or "daredevil adventurer with strongly held opinions” and “quirky conservative populist views” as Musk's authorised biographer puts it)

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/09/joshua-haldeman-elon-musk-grandfather-apartheid-antisemitism/675396/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    I’m sticking to my much mocked long-standing prediction that neither Trumpton nor Biden will run. I know @kinabalu made a similar gambit.

    No idea how it happens, but I’m sticking to it.

    If Vance ends up being POTUS I will be richer than Croesus.
    In a world reduced to using strings of sea-shells as currency...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    I’m sticking to my much mocked long-standing prediction that neither Trumpton nor Biden will run. I know @kinabalu made a similar gambit.

    No idea how it happens, but I’m sticking to it.

    Well it came within half an inch.

    I actually did lay the Trump/Biden exacta at 1.2 a while ago - so that paid off.

    Any case, main thing is no Trump2. Best outcome is he's thrashed at the polls.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 months in jail for falsely claiming to have been a victim of the riots seems a bit harsh.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/12/uk-riots-starmer-court-sentencing-southport/

    "An asylum seeker who broadcast a TikTok video falsely claiming he was being chased during the riots has been jailed for three months. Dimitrie Stoica’s livestream in Derby was seen by 700 people on Wednesday in what a court heard was a deliberate attempt to “stir up racial hatred”. The 35-old-old Romanian father of three told Southern Derbyshire Magistrates’ Court the video was a “joke” and he had hoped to get more followers."

    I don't think so. EVERYTHING about the riots is seen as a challenge to the status quo and so it is being quite brutally repressed. Think Sparticus.
    Not been any crucifixions around here yet. Is this how you English amuse yourselves now that the Olympics are over?
    No riots either. I see BBC Scotland have actually addressed that rather obvious lacuna in the official BBC term "UK riots" but tried to conclude that of course we Scots are gagging for a riot or three really.
    Didn't Scotland also escape riots in 2011? Although the weather was rather damper in North Britain at the time.

    There is, however, another possibility. Perhaps having an avowedly nationalistic government in power north of the border gives a more centrist home to those who love their country? While down south to be English and proud is to be despised?
    Wales also has it’s own government, and no riots. I don’t understand why the English don’t want their own government.
    I met a fella last Christmas who had moved to Wales - and as far as he was concerned he was now Welsh. "I really like it. They're a very patriotic people. They love their country."
    Delving further, it turned out what he loved was that he was no longer supposed to be ashamed of his country. He lived in a country where he was now allowed to be one of the good guys and where the purveyors of culture didn't look down on him.
    England needs more people like you, proud to be English in a non-violent way, to take back Englishness from the EDL types and the Faragists.
    Aw, thanks!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Olympics got lucky. 36 degrees in Paris today, too hot for athletics, even when it cools down.

    They lucked out on the opening ceremony night though.
    To "luck out" does not mean "to run out of luck", it means "to have extremely good luck"
    "Don't need any luck, Sarge! I was born lucky!"
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE

    Yep I only just thought of it hence the 'Doh' for being an idiot.

    But you realise you have done it yet again don't you. My whole point was that you are harsh on people for being idiots, but we are all idiots from time to time and we all don't know stuff. You are very intolerant when people don't know stuff so I was just giving you a bit of your own medicine, because a sudden realisation to you was really old news to a number of us and you were so excited about it.

    Oh and your job is as much of a choice as owning a dog. Both are big commitments. You could do something else. Our dog is probably as big a part of our lives as your job is to you.
    This really isn't going anywhere

    I believe owning cats and dogs is a deeply selfish act which seriously damages the envirionment in ways we are only beginning to grasp. I am therefore surprised that people who claim to care about the environment are happy to be such hypocrites and keep a pet

    Nonetheless we all have our own useful double standards, I am sure I do, so let's leave it there
    Damn - just after I have discovered a long haul flight to Kuala Lumpur has as big a carbon footprint as a large dog on a meat-intensive diet for a year. We could have done all sorts of equivalents and kept this going for days...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Doh - I have only just thought of this:

    @leon thinks I should give up my dog because of the damage he does to the environment - fair point

    @leon are you going to give up flying because of the damage you do to the environment?

    lol, you've only just thought of that???

    No, I won't give up flying because it is my job. I minimise my footprint elsewhere, I have no car, I use public transport, I HAVE NO PETS, I have a small flat, I tread as lightly as I can

    Owning a pet is not a job, it is your CHOICE
    Unless you're a slave, your job is your choice too.

    Anyway, I accept you do you bit for the environment by not having a pet and that offsets to some extent the ridiculous amount of flying you do.

    We don't fly, that offsets our pet.

    Now, stop trying to interfere with everyone else's lives.
    Interfere with people's lives is what lefties DO

    And cats and dogs are killing all the wildlife and destroying our rivers, so no, I won't shut up
    Here I've got a joke for you.

    What do you call a person who loves to immerse himself in reading about a vast range of subjects he never studied formally but somehow ends up with a dogmatic extreme opinion on all of it.

    An autodiktat. :smile:
    What do you call a militant non-drinker?

    A teetotalitarian. :smile:
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nunu5 said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    viewcode said:
    That's what I mean.
    I'm on at 5.5, but there's no volume.
    I got a bit higher than that but only for a tiny amount. Where are all those punters who think the election is a toss up? C'mon, take my money!
    Ohio is firmly in the Trump column in a toss up election. Won by Trump by 8% in 2020.
    But (apparently) his people are worried about Ohio on the basis of their private polling. A sub-50% finding (aparently) brings it into toss-up territory.

    I will not be surprised to see Ohio tied or better for Harris after the Convention.

    Why his advisors are so worried is because there is no positive narrative coming out of the Trump campaign. No policies are being brought forward. Just Trump's paranoia that his showman schtick is failing. He is now reduced to being the centre of attention only because he is coming out with frankly risible nonsense about how many people want to turn up to see him versus Harris-Walz or even MLK Jnr. Whilst we can see the level of enthusiasm for Harris and Walz's "tour of joy" around the swing states, we just have to take Trump's word for the continuing love for him because there are no empirical ways of measuring it.
    two cycles in a row pols have badly underestimated Trump in Ohio. It looks close then on the day it isn't. And two cycles in a row it's PVI has swung bigly to Trump (even if the margin was the same). It has a lot of wwc small towns that no longer vote dems. That won't change this election. In fact Dems still have room to fall in the small towns. ANd whilst GOP have room to fall in the suburbs they matter less in Ohio then e.g in WI where the WOW counties make up a huge chunk of the GOP vote.
    I find the rush to bet on Harris very mystifying.

    For betting purposes - and this should be obvious on a betting forum but many posters seem to be unaware of it - public information is useless. Everyone can see Harris going up in the polls. That is reflected in the pricing. People with more money, more data, and faster data feeds than you are betting into the market.

    Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense.

    Betting on centrist candidates is a very, very bad strategy in recent electoral history. They either under-perform polls or meet expectations at best.

    "....Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense...."

    I bet on Harris because I wanted to find out if the automated betting machines in the shops would allow that and if I could use them. If, after some research I will pretend is thorough, I think she will win, I will bet on her in the belief that she will win and I can profit thereby

    Not everybody does value betting.
    It's not exactly complicated.
    The odds are around evens, and I think she'll win.

    "betting on centrist candidate is a very bad strategy in recent history" is more of a rhetorical point than a convincing argument.
    Harris isn't a centrist candidate, she ran to the liberal left of Biden and Buttigieg in the 2020 Democratic primaries.

    Haley was a centrist candidate this year, neither Trump nor Harris are centrists
    Haley is a fairly right wing conservative.
    In US terms she would be centrist
    She's now signed up to Donald Trump and all his works. Any previous position she took are now out the window.
    She did the bare minimum
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited August 12

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nunu5 said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    viewcode said:
    That's what I mean.
    I'm on at 5.5, but there's no volume.
    I got a bit higher than that but only for a tiny amount. Where are all those punters who think the election is a toss up? C'mon, take my money!
    Ohio is firmly in the Trump column in a toss up election. Won by Trump by 8% in 2020.
    But (apparently) his people are worried about Ohio on the basis of their private polling. A sub-50% finding (aparently) brings it into toss-up territory.

    I will not be surprised to see Ohio tied or better for Harris after the Convention.

    Why his advisors are so worried is because there is no positive narrative coming out of the Trump campaign. No policies are being brought forward. Just Trump's paranoia that his showman schtick is failing. He is now reduced to being the centre of attention only because he is coming out with frankly risible nonsense about how many people want to turn up to see him versus Harris-Walz or even MLK Jnr. Whilst we can see the level of enthusiasm for Harris and Walz's "tour of joy" around the swing states, we just have to take Trump's word for the continuing love for him because there are no empirical ways of measuring it.
    two cycles in a row pols have badly underestimated Trump in Ohio. It looks close then on the day it isn't. And two cycles in a row it's PVI has swung bigly to Trump (even if the margin was the same). It has a lot of wwc small towns that no longer vote dems. That won't change this election. In fact Dems still have room to fall in the small towns. ANd whilst GOP have room to fall in the suburbs they matter less in Ohio then e.g in WI where the WOW counties make up a huge chunk of the GOP vote.
    I find the rush to bet on Harris very mystifying.

    For betting purposes - and this should be obvious on a betting forum but many posters seem to be unaware of it - public information is useless. Everyone can see Harris going up in the polls. That is reflected in the pricing. People with more money, more data, and faster data feeds than you are betting into the market.

    Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense.

    Betting on centrist candidates is a very, very bad strategy in recent electoral history. They either under-perform polls or meet expectations at best.

    "....Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense...."

    I bet on Harris because I wanted to find out if the automated betting machines in the shops would allow that and if I could use them. If, after some research I will pretend is thorough, I think she will win, I will bet on her in the belief that she will win and I can profit thereby

    Not everybody does value betting.
    It's not exactly complicated.
    The odds are around evens, and I think she'll win.

    "betting on centrist candidate is a very bad strategy in recent history" is more of a rhetorical point than a convincing argument.
    Harris isn't a centrist candidate, she ran to the liberal left of Biden and Buttigieg in the 2020 Democratic primaries.

    Haley was a centrist candidate this year, neither Trump nor Harris are centrists
    Haley is a fairly right wing conservative.
    In US terms she would be centrist
    She's now signed up to Donald Trump and all his works. Any previous position she took are now out the window.
    She did the bare minimum
    Yes. After Trump won the nomination, she could back him as the nominee or leave Republican politics.

    That’s how it works.

    She isnt especially centrist, either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited August 12

    I’m sticking to my much mocked long-standing prediction that neither Trumpton nor Biden will run. I know @kinabalu made a similar gambit.

    No idea how it happens, but I’m sticking to it.

    I've had that betting position, together with laying them both to win, for ages, back into last year at least. In Andy's competition I'm one of the few that didn't choose either of them as the candidate (not that my actual choices were any good, mind). Even if Trump wins I will be in small profit; if Trump loses, very nicely so. If he doesn't even run, result!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nunu5 said:

    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    viewcode said:
    That's what I mean.
    I'm on at 5.5, but there's no volume.
    I got a bit higher than that but only for a tiny amount. Where are all those punters who think the election is a toss up? C'mon, take my money!
    Ohio is firmly in the Trump column in a toss up election. Won by Trump by 8% in 2020.
    But (apparently) his people are worried about Ohio on the basis of their private polling. A sub-50% finding (aparently) brings it into toss-up territory.

    I will not be surprised to see Ohio tied or better for Harris after the Convention.

    Why his advisors are so worried is because there is no positive narrative coming out of the Trump campaign. No policies are being brought forward. Just Trump's paranoia that his showman schtick is failing. He is now reduced to being the centre of attention only because he is coming out with frankly risible nonsense about how many people want to turn up to see him versus Harris-Walz or even MLK Jnr. Whilst we can see the level of enthusiasm for Harris and Walz's "tour of joy" around the swing states, we just have to take Trump's word for the continuing love for him because there are no empirical ways of measuring it.
    two cycles in a row pols have badly underestimated Trump in Ohio. It looks close then on the day it isn't. And two cycles in a row it's PVI has swung bigly to Trump (even if the margin was the same). It has a lot of wwc small towns that no longer vote dems. That won't change this election. In fact Dems still have room to fall in the small towns. ANd whilst GOP have room to fall in the suburbs they matter less in Ohio then e.g in WI where the WOW counties make up a huge chunk of the GOP vote.
    I find the rush to bet on Harris very mystifying.

    For betting purposes - and this should be obvious on a betting forum but many posters seem to be unaware of it - public information is useless. Everyone can see Harris going up in the polls. That is reflected in the pricing. People with more money, more data, and faster data feeds than you are betting into the market.

    Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense.

    Betting on centrist candidates is a very, very bad strategy in recent electoral history. They either under-perform polls or meet expectations at best.

    "....Either you think the polls are essentially correct-in which case you have no bet because the line is efficient. Or you think they are wrong in which case a bet on Trump is correct. There is no scenario where a bet on Harris makes sense...."

    I bet on Harris because I wanted to find out if the automated betting machines in the shops would allow that and if I could use them. If, after some research I will pretend is thorough, I think she will win, I will bet on her in the belief that she will win and I can profit thereby

    Not everybody does value betting.
    It's not exactly complicated.
    The odds are around evens, and I think she'll win.

    "betting on centrist candidate is a very bad strategy in recent history" is more of a rhetorical point than a convincing argument.
    Harris isn't a centrist candidate, she ran to the liberal left of Biden and Buttigieg in the 2020 Democratic primaries.

    Haley was a centrist candidate this year, neither Trump nor Harris are centrists
    Haley is a fairly right wing conservative.
    In US terms she would be centrist
    She's now signed up to Donald Trump and all his works. Any previous position she took are now out the window.
    She did the bare minimum
    That was Stormy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've just seen the news that Graham Thorpe killed himself. What a bastard thing depression is.

    I've often thought that people would be better off without me, and thankfully I don't feel that bad at the moment.

    It really can affect anyone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/aug/12/graham-thorpes-wife-reveals-former-england-cricketer-killed-himself

    I hope you never feel that again.

    Someone on here (Ishmael, I think) once posted that he'd had both stage 4 cancer and clinical depression and it was no contest which was the bigger ordeal - the depression.
    You'd think, given that, he'd be slightly more pleasant and less obnoxious to people he disagreed with when here then.

    I had a friend who took his own life. Outwardly happy and normal. None of us knew of his demons and he never shared them. We would not have had an inkling. We were stunned when he did it.

    It is always worth remembering when people are shitty or snarky at someone online that there is a human being on the other end of it. You don't know what they are experiencing in their life and for many discussing with like minded people online is a release from the day to day.
    That's true. Also true that the person being obnoxious might be struggling.

    Digital chat can be great but there are real dangers.
    Quite frankly in this case it was more than just being obnoxious and if they are struggling they should not take it out on compete strangers on the internet. Trying to make other people feel shit because they do. No sympathy for them. F*ck them..
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    I've just seen the news that Graham Thorpe killed himself. What a bastard thing depression is.

    I've often thought that people would be better off without me, and thankfully I don't feel that bad at the moment.

    It really can affect anyone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/aug/12/graham-thorpes-wife-reveals-former-england-cricketer-killed-himself

    I hope you never feel that again.

    Someone on here (Ishmael, I think) once posted that he'd had both stage 4 cancer and clinical depression and it was no contest which was the bigger ordeal - the depression.
    You'd think, given that, he'd be slightly more pleasant and less obnoxious to people he disagreed with when here then.

    I had a friend who took his own life. Outwardly happy and normal. None of us knew of his demons and he never shared them. We would not have had an inkling. We were stunned when he did it.

    It is always worth remembering when people are shitty or snarky at someone online that there is a human being on the other end of it. You don't know what they are experiencing in their life and for many discussing with like minded people online is a release from the day to day.
    That's true. Also true that the person being obnoxious might be struggling.

    Digital chat can be great but there are real dangers.
    Quite frankly in this case it was more than just being obnoxious and if they are struggling they should not take it out on compete strangers on the internet. Trying to make other people feel shit because they do. No sympathy for them. F*ck them..
    I have to agree strongly with @Tax there. Having been on the end of it several times, for no apparent reason and seeing it done to others here there were no excuses for the nature of it. It was more than just obnoxious which can possibly be justified because of whatever. It was much more.
This discussion has been closed.