I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
You've rescinded all claim to credibility for that post. You are banging on about how bad this Government is after just three weeks, but yet you still fanboi for Boris Johnson.
I fear you confuse winning an election with being able to run a government.
BoJo would be a much better campaigner than Sunak or Starmer.
And since your english is so bad I'll try monosyllables.
I did not vote Bo Jo
me no like him
When you learn to use capital letters at the start of a proper noun like "English", you are welcome to school me for my linguistic shortcomings.
An observer notes that Alan proposed 'kafir' as a monosyllable during a previous discussion.
Of course. It's the closest your going to get. Let's see you beat it.
Yes, Jenrick looks the candidate to beat and will likely win the MPs and membership votes (the first candidate to do so since Boris, the only other one to do so being Cameron so at least we should get some party unity).
Whether he is another William Hague or Ed Miliband or actually has a chance of power depends on how the Labour government performs on the economy and immigration
Do you have any strong feelings on him either way HYUFD ? Do you have any expectation from a Jenrick leadership ?
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
I’m glad we gave Hong Kong away, they are savages.
Olympic Shade
Not like mama used to make
Italy have been moaning all over the media that they lost the fencing gold medal unfairly to Hong Kong.
This slight is not something that Hong Kongers were prepared to take lying down.
So first up, Pizza Hut Hong Kong started offering free pineapple on all their pizzas this week to infuriate the Italians back.
Then fencing fans began posting pictures of themselves eating pasta with soy sauce.
Poor Roberto Linguanotto, who died this week, must already be turning in his grave in trepidation as to how his legacy is bound to be trashed. Roberto was better known as the "Father of tiramisu".
Seriously? Boris Johnson was, with the exception of Jeremy Corbyn, the most ludicrous and inappropriate candidate to present themselves as a PM. He is fully responsible for the mess the Tories are in now.
Yes seriously.
I didnt vote for him as why would I want another Cameron ?
But he was able to connect with people better and would have had more nouse than to call the election when Sunak did. Starmer would have struggled against him.
Can you give polling evidence to the last statement? I seem to recall that polls indicated they would have been even worse. Bozo had, by that point, been revealed to be exactly what I said about him all along; dishonest, stupid and incompetent. The appeal that he had for gullible types like HYUFD who are obsessed with people with "charisma" had even waned with the most gullible ( HYUFD being exception). My own best guess is that he would have performed even worse than Sunak.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
When I was on the RAG committee at uni, we used to run the RON campaign at the elections every year. I think the highlight was when we found one of those little yellow man barriers the cleaners used, dressed it up as “RON” and paraded it around among the candidates in the campaign zone.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
Yes, Jenrick looks the candidate to beat and will likely win the MPs and membership votes (the first candidate to do so since Boris, the only other one to do so being Cameron so at least we should get some party unity).
Whether he is another William Hague or Ed Miliband or actually has a chance of power depends on how the Labour government performs on the economy and immigration
Do you have any strong feelings on him either way HYUFD ? Do you have any expectation from a Jenrick leadership ?
Steady as he goes
But if the ship he is sailing is full of incompetent matelots forever tangling sheets and shoving the rudder left and right, while declaring loudly what should be done, how does he maintain this "steadiness".
I bet this is totally misleading. Whatever your views on GB News surely as a politico you would want to keep track of what *all* the channels are saying at some point or other?
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
When I was on the RAG committee at uni, we used to run the RON campaign at the elections every year. I think the highlight was when we found one of those little yellow man barriers the cleaners used, dressed it up as “RON” and paraded it around among the candidates in the campaign zone.
We did it at the Walking Club too. One year there was somebody who put himself forward for Chairman who was such a twat nobody wanted him, so they voted in RON. This time the first aider allowed himself to be nominated (after we plied him with a lot of drinks).
Can't remember his full manifesto, but I remember it contained the line 'if you're injured and need first aid, you will have felt me running my hands all over you. Sometimes this is to find what's wrong, but more usually it's so I can find and steal your wallet.'
Then there was another vacancy so we promoted Idris (that's the mascot, a stuffed red dragon) onto the committee.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Ah, Brookie, my favourite recollection (tell me I'm not misremembering!) is of your declaring sternly that you would not be voting in May 2015, and that this applied to your good lady and children. (I suspected they furtively trooped down to the polling station but told you they were at Sainsbury's doing the weekly shop).
When was the last time you actually did exercise your vote in a GE?
Yes, Jenrick looks the candidate to beat and will likely win the MPs and membership votes (the first candidate to do so since Boris, the only other one to do so being Cameron so at least we should get some party unity).
Whether he is another William Hague or Ed Miliband or actually has a chance of power depends on how the Labour government performs on the economy and immigration
Do you have any strong feelings on him either way HYUFD ? Do you have any expectation from a Jenrick leadership ?
Steady as he goes
But if the ship he is sailing is full of incompetent matelots forever tangling sheets and shoving the rudder left and right, while declaring loudly what should be done, how does he maintain this "steadiness".
By driving it into a sandbank. Preferably Varne Bank. And as he abandons ship a migrant RIB sails by. There's room for all but one of you they say. And the captain goes down with his ship.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
"Jenrick was privately educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School..."
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Ah, Brookie, my favourite recollection (tell me I'm not misremembering!) is of your declaring sternly that you would not be voting in May 2015, and that this applied to your good lady and children. (I suspected they furtively trooped down to the polling station but told you they were at Sainsbury's doing the weekly shop).
When was the last time you actually did exercise your vote in a GE?
Actually JohnO I spoiled my vote in 2015. Foolishly gave May a chance and didnt vote in the last 2 elections. In between what was one of the safest con seats in the country has been taken by the LDs.
From the sample of voters I meet in the pub - all usually blue voters - they had a mix of hold their nose and vote or just not bother.
If the conservatives cant get their act together do you think they should survive ?
If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.
I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.
I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.
I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.
If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!
Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?
I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.
The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.
The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.
You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.
In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.
I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .
I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
"President Biden—about an hour before he notified the world he was dropping out of the presidential race on July 21—called the PM of Slovenia, whose country was contributing two convicted Russian spies to the swap, to secure the pardon necessary for the deal to proceed."- @WSJ https://x.com/biannagolodryga/status/1819037300325597478
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
"Jenrick was privately educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School..."
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Indeed. Most of the Lib Dem gains were a product of highly coordinated tactical voting by people who are first and foremost anti-Tory and who aren't there to be 'won back' because they're never going to be voting Tory in the first place.
Comparing the increases in vote share to the LDs and to Labour in very similar, often neighbouring seats reveals a pattern of deliberate, explicit collusion on a scale never before seen.
To pick just two not particularly standout examples:
North Cornwall: LDs up 18%, Labour down 4%; but St Austell & Newquay: LDs down 0.5%, Labour up 7.5%
Bicester & Woodstock: LDs up 12%, Labour down 0.5%; but Buckingham & Bletchley: LDs down 6.5%, Labour up 9%
Nothing remotely resembling a 'Uniform Swing', and no evidence of genuine popularity for either party, just a concerted effort to vote out incumbent Tories.
These are votes cast by transients on the basis of hate, not hope. So going after this cohort would be an absolute fools errand and a misreading of the numbers.
So voters who stayed at home, Reform voters and even those who've never voted before who haven't bought into a life of bitter Toryphobic bile are all a more fertile source of potential votes next time.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Just do another Brexit, get it stuck in Parliament, and get Jez back as Labour leader. They'll come out again then.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
A lot of them look eminently gettable with the right bar chart.
And once again, there isn't much of a Lib Lab battleground there, even without any Sordid Deals.
On that list there are only 30 seats the LDs could gain with less than a further 10% swing from the Tories which isn't happening.
Not least as Jenrick would almost certainly do a deal with Farage if we still have FPTP so Reform stand down or put up paper candidates in seats where the Tories are first or second with Labour or the LDs their main opponents in return for the Tories not standing or only putting up paper candidates in seats where Reform are first or second with Labour their main opponents
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Just do another Brexit, get it stuck in Parliament, and get Jez back as Labour leader. They'll come out again then.
It's a view but SKS is capable of mucking things up all by himself
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Ah, Brookie, my favourite recollection (tell me I'm not misremembering!) is of your declaring sternly that you would not be voting in May 2015, and that this applied to your good lady and children. (I suspected they furtively trooped down to the polling station but told you they were at Sainsbury's doing the weekly shop).
When was the last time you actually did exercise your vote in a GE?
Alan is in a space above voting. He's the official opposition.
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
"Jenrick was privately educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School..."
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
"Jenrick was privately educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School..."
That straightaway makes it hard for him to connect with ordinary voters (not sure what 'provincial voters' signifies there).
I think your last sentence if a little odd. 'Connection' with people depends on a whole load of factors; education just being one.
It sounds like what you mean is: "His opponents will be able to sell it as him being disconnected with 'ordinary' people, whatever the truth."
In the same manner, I don't see much evidence that Starmer - son of a toolmaker - has much connection with (say) builders building all the new houses he wants. Their worlds are very different.
"President Biden—about an hour before he notified the world he was dropping out of the presidential race on July 21—called the PM of Slovenia, whose country was contributing two convicted Russian spies to the swap, to secure the pardon necessary for the deal to proceed."- @WSJ https://x.com/biannagolodryga/status/1819037300325597478
How badly did Putin need to get a handful of his best agents back, that he’s giving up a massive amount of leverage over the West to do so?
He’s running out of every skill and piece of equipment the old Soviet Union had spent half a century building up, all gone in little more than two years.
Jenrick was utterly ineffectual as housing minister, doing absolutely sod all for leaseholders affected by the cladding scandal (pretty much anyone living in a building more than 5 storeys high). Described as "no help at all" by 90% of leaseholders in a survey by the leasehold knowledge partnership.
He was involved in a highly controversial planning decision involving Richard Desmond, who made a subsatantial donation to the Conservatives two weeks after planning was approved.
He charged the taxpayer £100,000 in rent and council tax for his THIRD home. That's right. Third home. To quote the Times, "Travel expenses suggest that Jenrick rarely spends an entire weekend at the property..." ..."A government minister said last night: “It’s a bit odd to make the taxpayer fund your constituency home when you’ve got all that money. It doesn’t look good.”
He broke lockdown rules twice, travelling 150 miles to his his second home. Considering it was rule breaking that did for Boris, is Jenrick really a suitable candidate for leader?
Oh, and the thing he's most famous for? Having a mural of Mickey Mouse and Baloo from Jungle Book in a children's asylum centre painted over. Regardless for the reason (e.g. copyright), the man is mostly known by the general public for comic-book, cartoon-villain levels of cruelty. That is when they remember him at all.
So I put it to you. If Robert Jenrick is the answer, then what on earth is the question?
Jenrick does not have the high negatives with the public Patel and Braverman do, is more intelligent than Cleverly and less partisan and shrill than Badenoch and is rightwing enough for the membership over Tugendhat or Stride?
Less 'partisan'? How is that a plus when he's hoping to be elected the leader of a party?
Loughborough has a love/hate relationship with its University, but currently Loughborough would be 9th in the Olympic medals table if it was a nation! #Loveborough
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Ah, Brookie, my favourite recollection (tell me I'm not misremembering!) is of your declaring sternly that you would not be voting in May 2015, and that this applied to your good lady and children. (I suspected they furtively trooped down to the polling station but told you they were at Sainsbury's doing the weekly shop).
When was the last time you actually did exercise your vote in a GE?
Alan is in a space above voting. He's the official opposition.
Somebody has to do it. It reminds me of Blair gov 1 when the offical opposition was Bremner Bird and Fortune.
But this lot re no Blair history will repeat itself as farce.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Loughborough has a love/hate relationship with its University, but currently Loughborough would be 9th in the Olympic medals table if it was a nation! #Loveborough
The famous Sports Science degree.
Presumably would be labelled Mickey Mouse by former Conservative Cabinet ministers and ripe for being shut down as it is ripping off students?
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Why not try having some conservative policies ?
You know small state, responsible spending, remember there life outside the South East.
He backed Remain which makes him a top bloke in my book.
His wife;s French
So is Tom Tugendhat’s wife.
Tom’s uncle was the Vice President of the EU Commission so he must be a top bloke too.
Thats the problem with you elitists you never marry anyone from Bootle
I did, kinda.
She was born in Liverpool but moved to Birkenhead when she was two.
The vanity of small differences.
Isn't Jenrick rich and owns, like five big houses?
Haven't they tried that one with the last guy?
He has his main residence in Herefordshire, two houses in London and a constituency house in Southwell which the taxpayer is payng £2000 a month for. And during the election campaign he had the audacity to complain that the Labour candidate had been parachuted in all the way from Nottingham. When people pointed out that he himself was parachuted in from Herefordshire he had his social media team block hundreds of accounts.
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
"Jenrick was privately educated at Wolverhampton Grammar School..."
That straightaway makes it hard for him to connect with ordinary voters (not sure what 'provincial voters' signifies there).
I think your last sentence if a little odd. 'Connection' with people depends on a whole load of factors; education just being one.
It sounds like what you mean is: "His opponents will be able to sell it as him being disconnected with 'ordinary' people, whatever the truth."
In the same manner, I don't see much evidence that Starmer - son of a toolmaker - has much connection with (say) builders building all the new houses he wants. Their worlds are very different.
My response was to HY's comment "Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did".
Loughborough has a love/hate relationship with its University, but currently Loughborough would be 9th in the Olympic medals table if it was a nation! #Loveborough
The famous Sports Science degree.
Presumably would be labelled Mickey Mouse by former Conservative Cabinet ministers and ripe for being shut down as it is ripping off students?
It’s nothing compared to what the US universities do with ‘athletics’.
He backed Remain which makes him a top bloke in my book.
His wife;s French
So is Tom Tugendhat’s wife.
Tom’s uncle was the Vice President of the EU Commission so he must be a top bloke too.
Thats the problem with you elitists you never marry anyone from Bootle
I did, kinda.
She was born in Liverpool but moved to Birkenhead when she was two.
The vanity of small differences.
Isn't Jenrick rich and owns, like five big houses?
Haven't they tried that one with the last guy?
He has his main residence in Herefordshire, two houses in London and a constituency house in Southwell which the taxpayer is payng £2000 a month for. And during the election campaign he had the audacity to complain that the Labour candidate had been parachuted in all the way from Nottingham. When people pointed out that he himself was parachuted in from Herefordshire he had his social media team block hundreds of accounts.
He is a slimeball.
As I posted earlier, if elected leader he wont be there for the GE in 2028/9.
If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.
I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.
I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.
I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.
If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!
Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?
I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.
The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.
The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.
You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.
In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.
I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .
I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Loughborough has a love/hate relationship with its University, but currently Loughborough would be 9th in the Olympic medals table if it was a nation! #Loveborough
The famous Sports Science degree.
Presumably would be labelled Mickey Mouse by former Conservative Cabinet ministers and ripe for being shut down as it is ripping off students?
Except Daniel Wiffen is doing an IT with Business Management degree..
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
To be fair, it's a dashed difficult question.
As long as the Lib Dems have 70 seats with strong Conservative heritage, it's really hard for the Conservatives to assemble a winning total in the Commons.
As long as Reform are sitting to the right of the Conservative Party, they will suck up votes that the Conservatives used to count on.
And any movement in one direction will repel voters on the other side. Current Conservative positioning is both not popular enough and probably as popular as it gets.
All I can say is that I wouldn't have started from here.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
But surely the Cons should be hoping they might come back? The Conservatives surely have to be aiming wider than just leave viters over 50. I agree with at least some of what JohnO says. Competence, and putting together a policy set that will appeal to younger people. That doesn't mean going all BBC3. Just recognise the aspirations of the generation who might hope to own a home and raise a family. That's what Conservatives used to do.
Keir Starmer warns social media companies and those who run them that violent disorder whipped up online is a crime
'It's happening on your premises. The law must be upheld everywhere. We will take all necessary action to keep our streets safe'
Let's see how he handles the next pro Hamas march.
Are they violent? There's a lot of hate on signs and banners and so on. But actual violence disorder?
I may be mis-remembering.
Oh I think they get their share of violence towards the end of the day, like that Iranian bloke who waves an Israeli flag and then gets the crap beaten out of him. The plods let it go because they cant manage a large crowd.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Sounds like he hasn’t changed a bit. Did he paint over all the posters on the Student Union wall?
He backed Remain which makes him a top bloke in my book.
His wife;s French
So is Tom Tugendhat’s wife.
Tom’s uncle was the Vice President of the EU Commission so he must be a top bloke too.
Thats the problem with you elitists you never marry anyone from Bootle
I did, kinda.
She was born in Liverpool but moved to Birkenhead when she was two.
The vanity of small differences.
Isn't Jenrick rich and owns, like five big houses?
Haven't they tried that one with the last guy?
He has his main residence in Herefordshire, two houses in London and a constituency house in Southwell which the taxpayer is payng £2000 a month for. And during the election campaign he had the audacity to complain that the Labour candidate had been parachuted in all the way from Nottingham. When people pointed out that he himself was parachuted in from Herefordshire he had his social media team block hundreds of accounts.
He is a slimeball.
He's one of those high functioning sociopaths you read about, but not as high functioning as he thinks he is.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Sounds like he hasn’t changed a bit. Did he paint over all the posters on the Student Union wall?
Does anyone else have a feeling of dread at what seems to be going on at the moment re violence and disorder.
Twitter/X is not the real world; I know; but it’s getting very nasty out there.
I genuinely do fear there is more to come.
One thing we can say about Starmer is that he is a serious guy. Maybe he will go after social media as he says?
Ah yes, the old ‘censor the internet’ approach, that’s the reflexive action for Starmer and his lefty lawyer friends, but completely unenforceable in practice.
At a time when Twitter has a totally maverick boss who doesn’t give a f**k about profits and wants to stand up for freedom of speech.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Sounds like he hasn’t changed a bit. Did he paint over all the posters on the Student Union wall?
Honestly, the Tories would be mad to make him leader. It is IDS all over again. I give it two years.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Sounds like he hasn’t changed a bit. Did he paint over all the posters on the Student Union wall?
Priti Patel is still my favoured candidate.
Thanks for the tip. Lay Priti Patel everyone! Edit: seriously, though, Luckyguy seems to me to be a typical Conservative party member, except younger. Buy Priti Patel everyone!
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Why not try having some conservative policies ?
You know small state, responsible spending, remember there life outside the South East.
Just a thought.
Amiable motherhood platitudes....care to elaborate on some specifics? The swing to the LibDems in Stratford-On-Avon was 24.5% and their votes increased by 10,000, so there's something rather more fundamental going on far beyond the South East.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
I think the Cons face extinction as a major party if they don't react carefully to July 4th. The LDs becoming the dominant non-Labour party in the Remainy South and Reform becoming that in the Brexity North - this could squeeze them out of the living room and into the kitchen.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
The main way they do it is due to a further fragmentation of the Labour vote from the 33.7% they won at the election.
If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.
I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.
I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.
I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.
If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!
Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?
I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.
The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.
The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.
You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.
In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.
I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .
I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.
We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Sounds like he hasn’t changed a bit. Did he paint over all the posters on the Student Union wall?
Priti Patel is still my favoured candidate.
Nice that we agree on something. But perhaps for different reasons.
But even so, after yesterday he can claim it's Trump dragging down the ticket....
Are you allowed back to posting ?
I'm not saying anything on domestic politics. Otherwise, I can't resist twopenneth on US politics - and the occcasional awful pun. That should't get me in trouble....
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Hm. I'm no fan of Jenrick, but 'sneering and pompous'? St. John's is the famously posh one, isn't it? This sounds very much like the behaviour of "stay in your place, horrible little oik" types.
Keir Starmer warns social media companies and those who run them that violent disorder whipped up online is a crime
'It's happening on your premises. The law must be upheld everywhere. We will take all necessary action to keep our streets safe'
Let's see how he handles the next pro Hamas march.
Are they violent? There's a lot of hate on signs and banners and so on. But actual violence disorder?
I may be mis-remembering.
Oh I think they get their share of violence towards the end of the day, like that Iranian bloke who waves an Israeli flag and then gets the crap beaten out of him. The plods let it go because they cant manage a large crowd.
Hugely less violent than these thuggish EDL type affairs. The violence isn't incidental with these, it's the point.
Loughborough has a love/hate relationship with its University, but currently Loughborough would be 9th in the Olympic medals table if it was a nation! #Loveborough
It used to be bliss when the students had buggered off for the summer.
Keir Starmer warns social media companies and those who run them that violent disorder whipped up online is a crime
'It's happening on your premises. The law must be upheld everywhere. We will take all necessary action to keep our streets safe'
Let's see how he handles the next pro Hamas march.
I'm not aware of any pro-Hamas marches. However, there have been dozens of very large pro-Palestinian marches over the last 10 months, and not one of them as far as I know has ended with bricks being thrown at the police or places of worship being targeted and attacked. Unlike the EDL bunch in Southport.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Really ? You need to win back the 2.8 million conservative voters who stayed at home. The protest voters will come back when theyre pissed off with Labour.
Indeed. Most of the Lib Dem gains were a product of highly coordinated tactical voting by people who are first and foremost anti-Tory and who aren't there to be 'won back' because they're never going to be voting Tory in the first place.
Comparing the increases in vote share to the LDs and to Labour in very similar, often neighbouring seats reveals a pattern of deliberate, explicit collusion on a scale never before seen.
To pick just two not particularly standout examples:
North Cornwall: LDs up 18%, Labour down 4%; but St Austell & Newquay: LDs down 0.5%, Labour up 7.5%
Bicester & Woodstock: LDs up 12%, Labour down 0.5%; but Buckingham & Bletchley: LDs down 6.5%, Labour up 9%
Nothing remotely resembling a 'Uniform Swing', and no evidence of genuine popularity for either party, just a concerted effort to vote out incumbent Tories.
These are votes cast by transients on the basis of hate, not hope. So going after this cohort would be an absolute fools errand and a misreading of the numbers.
So voters who stayed at home, Reform voters and even those who've never voted before who haven't bought into a life of bitter Toryphobic bile are all a more fertile source of potential votes next time.
This was the Corbynist view as well. We won't go after Tory voters, they are scum, we'll get the non-voters to back us instead. It was not hugely successful.
The anti-Tory party was dominant in the UK for over 20 years. It was really only finally beaten, in England at least, in 2015. That could have been the start of something. Instead, the Tories revived it and it is bigger, more ferocious, more efficiently distributed and better organised than ever. If the Tories ignore its existence or decide it can be ignored, they are not coming back to power for a very long time.
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
Switch “Lewisham” with “Blackheath”, and that reads rather differently.
Does anyone else have a feeling of dread at what seems to be going on at the moment re violence and disorder.
Twitter/X is not the real world; I know; but it’s getting very nasty out there.
I genuinely do fear there is more to come.
One thing we can say about Starmer is that he is a serious guy. Maybe he will go after social media as he says?
Ah yes, the old ‘censor the internet’ approach, that’s the reflexive action for Starmer and his lefty lawyer friends, but completely unenforceable in practice.
At a time when Twitter has a totally maverick boss who doesn’t give a f**k about profits and wants to stand up for freedom of speech.
Musk does not stand for freedom of speech. He shuts down accounts he does not like. That is his prerogative. But he is not above the law.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Why not try having some conservative policies ?
You know small state, responsible spending, remember there life outside the South East.
Just a thought.
Amiable motherhood platitudes....care to elaborate on some specifics? The swing to the LibDems in Stratford-On-Avon was 24.5% and their votes increased by 10,000, so there's something rather more fundamental going on far beyond the South East.
Oh let's see. The locals werent impressed when the previous incumbent claimed for heating his stables, so we could try having a bit straighter MP. The highest taxes in a generation didnt go down well when theres quite a bit of government waste. There has been no effeort to reverse the Blair settlement so the Tories keep trying to be "progressive" which deosnt work. Cur back the number of laws, stop no win no fee, and free up the economic environment to let a bit of entrepreneurialism back in to the economy. Weve discussed houses to death on the board, but you didnt build any because you made it too hard to do, ut not having young people on the housing ladder kills your future pool of voters. Build house build infrastructure and try to be a first world nation again. I could also give you comments on defenee, migration( control it ) and environment but it will only bore the tits off you.
You should also have a pact with Reform, Reform can win seats in place the Tories will never reach. So pretending you can win in WWC seats is pointless, let Farage go shit stirring on Labour while you refocus on Blue wall. As my good mate Adolf found out fighting a war on two fronts is a mugs game.
I coul go on but Ive got 5 years of Labour failure to laugh at so theres no rush.
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
Hm. I'm no fan of Jenrick, but 'sneering and pompous'? St. John's is the famously posh one, isn't it? This sounds very much like the behaviour of "stay in your place, horrible little oik" types.
Could be right. The 'little man' is a tell. Possibly anyway.
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
To be honest the Tories are more likely to bring back Reform voters than LD voters for now with their leadership pick, the former voted positively Tory in 2019 for Boris and Brexit, the latter only voted Tory to keep out Corbyn.
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
I agree that the Tories mightbenefit from an unpopular Government, but that can't be guaranteed. The LibDems are (unfortunately) another sizeable opposition party and may also benefit.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
Remember though the median voter is already now 50 not 30!
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
I'd be (genuinely) interested in how you see the Tories getting to 200 seats, led alone 325.
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
The main way they do it is due to a further fragmentation of the Labour vote from the 33.7% they won at the election.
I suppose... but don't disregard the extent to which it was fractured because, and only because, a Labour victory was assured.
Keir Starmer warns social media companies and those who run them that violent disorder whipped up online is a crime
'It's happening on your premises. The law must be upheld everywhere. We will take all necessary action to keep our streets safe'
Let's see how he handles the next pro Hamas march.
Are they violent? There's a lot of hate on signs and banners and so on. But actual violence disorder?
I may be mis-remembering.
Oh I think they get their share of violence towards the end of the day, like that Iranian bloke who waves an Israeli flag and then gets the crap beaten out of him. The plods let it go because they cant manage a large crowd.
Hugely less violent than these thuggish EDL type affairs. The violence isn't incidental with these, it's the point.
But violent nonetheless, why should we have two different sets of policing standards ?
I'll be voting for Tom T, hope he manages to pull it out of the bag. Jenrick will be worse than Hague was IMO, speaks to the core voter but no one else.
That's unfair - to Hague.
Jenrick would be worse than Iain Duncan Smith.
Hague and IDS faced Blair at his peak, the most charismatic and centrist leader Labour have ever had who was elected with 43% of the vote in 1997.
Jenrick would only have to face Starmer, one of the dullest leaders Labour have ever had, who only managed 33% of the vote even this year.
Indeed even Hague would probably have beaten Brown in 2010 had Howard been elected leader not him in 1997 and he replaced Howard after the 2001 defeat and stayed on after gains in 2005
So when Jenrick leads them to fourth party status he really has no excuse?
It's rarely mentioned here - but critical for the party's future - to appreciate that the LibDems directly gained around 60 seats on July 4th, and many with large majorities (here in Esher and Walton it was over 12,000 and a 22% margin).
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
A lot of them look eminently gettable with the right bar chart.
And once again, there isn't much of a Lib Lab battleground there, even without any Sordid Deals.
On that list there are only 30 seats the LDs could gain with less than a further 10% swing from the Tories which isn't happening.
Not least as Jenrick would almost certainly do a deal with Farage if we still have FPTP so Reform stand down or put up paper candidates in seats where the Tories are first or second with Labour or the LDs their main opponents in return for the Tories not standing or only putting up paper candidates in seats where Reform are first or second with Labour their main opponents
Reform didn’t stand in West Dorset, safe Tory seat since the 1880s, and much good it did you…
If they think Jenrick is the answer then god help the party.
I'll retire to Bedlam.
He could surprise on the upside.
I am not a Tory, never voted Tory in a GE, only once in a local election, therefore I hold no torch for them and have little knowledge of Jenrick apart from his rather hapless time as a Minister.
Well, it just goes to show you should never judge a book by its cover.
I had you pegged as a diehard Conservative.
If you're one of the "I don't like any of them" brigade. fine, but what would you support or for what would you vote positively rather than negatively?
"pegged" !!!!!
Why would you have me down as a Tory, just as a matter of interest ?
I did post here that I was not going to vote, but in the end, and I said I would, I voted for Luke Akehurst our Labour candidate. I do not loathe Reform supporters like some people on this board, I live among many of them, but I didn't want to risk a Reform MP here and their economic policies were crackers. I'm socially liberal and fiscally more conservative so I like Rachel Reeves and the cut of her jib. I also don't think she has done anything wrong so far. I like the likes our Haigh, Cooper, Phillipson and Streeting too.
The Tories were just to utterly incompetent at the end. They needed putting out of their misery. SKS and co deserve a chance. Another 5 years of the preceding 5 years would be unbearable.
The only time I ever voted Tory was for a local councillor who was excellent and did alot for the ward. I saw that more as an endorsement of him personally than his party.
Pegged - as in a square one going into a round hole it would seem.
You've posted about as often as I have but as I drop in and out on here I don't read every post. I just had the sense you were often defending the Conservatives and being critical of Labour so I made the assumption which I shouldn't have done.
In truth, you aren't a million miles away from me and I'm happy to give the new Government a fair crack of the whip for all some on here seem to think the IMF will be here in four years. I'd only disagree the Conservatives didn't need putting out of their misery, they needed putting out of our misery.
I find Reform a paradox as I've said on here before - the anti-immigration line is all that holds them together. Farage and Tice are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want tax cuts especially for the wealthy while the Reform membership and voters are more nuanced - some still cling to the Johnsonian levelling up agenda, others simply want more spending and investment in WWC areas.
I suspect from the reform voters I know here they are social conservatives but want alot more spending here. Many went for Bojo due to the promise of levelling up. Our areas have been neglected and ignored for long enough. My hope is the local mayor here will make a difference. A reform MP probably won’t .
I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I think they just want solutions. High streets to stop being wastelands full of empty shops. That's not due to lack of spending, that's due to pension funds and their overvalued property portfolios.
Reform voters want a return to a past that is no longer possible - shops can only exist if there is appropriate spare cash to keep them going and in an awful lot of reform voting areas that cash doesn't exist.
We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
Thats because we have allowed it to happen. we subsidised Jeff Bezos to kill off our retailers and screwed councils into to raising ridiculous rates bills,
I'd be surprised if Jenrick gets the job. My prediction is Cleverly or Badenoch.
Okay, I am no Tory, but Cleverly seems okay to me. Palatable. Still wouldn't vote for them
Jenrick grew up in Wolverhampton to working class parents, so will have more connection to provincial voters than Rishi did as will Cleverly from an average family in Lewisham
Switch “Lewisham” with “Blackheath”, and that reads rather differently.
I quite like the fact that Cleverly got his degree in hospitality management studies.
Comments
https://x.com/GeorgeTakei/status/1818951998605066273
The Anti-BNOC
Going wrong wrong for Ron-Ron
Robert Jenrick is the current bookies favourite in the upcoming Tory leadership race. But he shouldn't get too cocky about his chances. Not if he still remembers what happened at university.
Back when he was at St John's, Robert ran for a minor role on his college's student committee. Given that he was running unopposed for his chosen position as JCR Academic Officer -- pretty much the lowest rung of student politics at Cambridge -- you'd think it would have been plain sailing. Unfortunately, Robert had already made quite the impression on his fellow students. "He was a sneering and pompous little man", says one ex-classmate.
So sneering and pompous in fact that the college staged a coup, running a campaign to re-open nominations (R.O.N) just to stop Jenrick getting the job. The R.O.N campaign taunted Jenrick with posters of Ronald McDonald and singing Da Do Ron Ron by the Crystals whenever he was earshot.
Worse still, they defeated him. Elections were forced to reopen and poor Robert was swiftly beaten by another candidate and never held office at St John's again.
"he grew up in Wolverhampton to working class voters"
Never change, Hyufd, never change.
The Tories have only have a lead of 49 seats, so a further switch of just 25 next time will leave them the third party. These are the voters - and those who voted Labour - we need to win back just to survive, let alone any eventual return to Government.
Olympic Shade
Not like mama used to make
Italy have been moaning all over the media that they lost the fencing gold medal unfairly to Hong Kong.
This slight is not something that Hong Kongers were prepared to take lying down.
So first up, Pizza Hut Hong Kong started offering free pineapple on all their pizzas this week to infuriate the Italians back.
Then fencing fans began posting pictures of themselves eating pasta with soy sauce.
Poor Roberto Linguanotto, who died this week, must already be turning in his grave in trepidation as to how his legacy is bound to be trashed. Roberto was better known as the "Father of tiramisu".
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/07/venezuela-stolen-election-interview-leopoldo-lopez/679305/
With a very acid headline:
'Venezuela’s Dictator Can’t Even Lie Well'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://www.safecareireland.com/site/uploads/sys_products/minderman002.jpg
affectionately, of course.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/gb-news-senedd-welsh-parliament-ban
Unless Labour replaced Starmer with Rayner say I can't see LD voters going Tory anytime soon, even if Tugendhat was Tory leader.
Those who switched to Labour from Tory though are natural swing voters who may go Tory again if the economy is poor or Tory or Reform if the boats aren't stopped largely regardless of who is Tory leader.
Esher and Walton is now only the 250th Tory target seat, they could get a majority even if it stayed LD
Can't remember his full manifesto, but I remember it contained the line 'if you're injured and need first aid, you will have felt me running my hands all over you. Sometimes this is to find what's wrong, but more usually it's so I can find and steal your wallet.'
Then there was another vacancy so we promoted Idris (that's the mascot, a stuffed red dragon) onto the committee.
Happy days.
When was the last time you actually did exercise your vote in a GE?
I’ll get my coat.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
A lot of them look eminently gettable with the right bar chart.
And once again, there isn't much of a Lib Lab battleground there, even without any Sordid Deals.
https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs?si=uIM7g073ZTx7slNK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Jenrick#Early_life_and_non-political_career
That straightaway makes it hard for him to connect with ordinary voters (not sure what 'provincial voters' signifies there).
From the sample of voters I meet in the pub - all usually blue voters - they had a mix of hold their nose and vote or just not bother.
If the conservatives cant get their act together do you think they should survive ?
I think in places like this Reform could be a threat to labour in five years so they will need to do something for the area.
I want as many former Tory voters to return to the fold, including those who 'defected' to Reform. But that can only happen when the party first appreciates the reasons for its huge rejection (Johnson's antics/sleaze destroyed any moral case - as did too many Tory MPs and the tawdry spiviness of Sunak's PPS and other CCHQ luninaries buzzing off to the bookies - and that Truss did the same for economic competence.
Then the hard work of devising credible social and economic policies that will appeal to younger (30-55?) people and their families. I have little confidence that either can be achieved by Jenrick and not at all should Badenoch or Patel be elected.
https://x.com/biannagolodryga/status/1819037300325597478
@ForecasterEnten
JD Vance was the first VP nominee to have a negative net favorability coming out of his party's convention... It's only gotten worse for him.
Given how Vance has dominated news cycles, it is, at this point, the worst VP pick since Eagleton in 1972...
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1819010887287488558
Indeed. Most of the Lib Dem gains were a product of highly coordinated tactical voting by people who are first and foremost anti-Tory and who aren't there to be 'won back' because they're never going to be voting Tory in the first place.
Comparing the increases in vote share to the LDs and to Labour in very similar, often neighbouring seats reveals a pattern of deliberate, explicit collusion on a scale never before seen.
To pick just two not particularly standout examples:
North Cornwall: LDs up 18%, Labour down 4%; but
St Austell & Newquay: LDs down 0.5%, Labour up 7.5%
Bicester & Woodstock: LDs up 12%, Labour down 0.5%; but
Buckingham & Bletchley: LDs down 6.5%, Labour up 9%
Nothing remotely resembling a 'Uniform Swing', and no evidence of genuine popularity for either party, just a concerted effort to vote out incumbent Tories.
These are votes cast by transients on the basis of hate, not hope. So going after this cohort would be an absolute fools errand and a misreading of the numbers.
So voters who stayed at home, Reform voters and even those who've never voted before who haven't bought into a life of bitter Toryphobic bile are all a more fertile source of potential votes next time.
Not least as Jenrick would almost certainly do a deal with Farage if we still have FPTP so Reform stand down or put up paper candidates in seats where the Tories are first or second with Labour or the LDs their main opponents in return for the Tories not standing or only putting up paper candidates in seats where Reform are first or second with Labour their main opponents
All the Remain voting fiscally conservative Tories who might have gone LD pretty much left on 4th July anyway
It sounds like what you mean is: "His opponents will be able to sell it as him being disconnected with 'ordinary' people, whatever the truth."
In the same manner, I don't see much evidence that Starmer - son of a toolmaker - has much connection with (say) builders building all the new houses he wants. Their worlds are very different.
He’s running out of every skill and piece of equipment the old Soviet Union had spent half a century building up, all gone in little more than two years.
#Loveborough
“Mercedes reckon that that the plank had lost more weight than they had anticipated... Bit rude.”
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=228&t=1841332&i=840
But this lot re no Blair history will repeat itself as farce.
@Steven_Swinford
·
59m
Breaking:
Keir Starmer warns social media companies and those who run them that violent disorder whipped up online is a crime
'It's happening on your premises. The law must be upheld everywhere. We will take all necessary action to keep our streets safe'
Haven't they tried that one with the last guy?
In truth, you seem bewilderingly blase about the huge swathes of former True Blues no longer supporting the party. Relying on Labour's unpopularity and a bizarre pact with Farage (who openly wants to destroy the Conservatives, and which will drive away even more of us) simply isn't credible.
Presumably would be labelled Mickey Mouse by former Conservative Cabinet ministers and ripe for being shut down as it is ripping off students?
Twitter/X is not the real world; I know; but it’s getting very nasty out there.
I genuinely do fear there is more to come.
I may be mis-remembering.
You know small state, responsible spending, remember there life outside the South East.
Just a thought.
He is a slimeball.
As long as the Lib Dems have 70 seats with strong Conservative heritage, it's really hard for the Conservatives to assemble a winning total in the Commons.
As long as Reform are sitting to the right of the Conservative Party, they will suck up votes that the Conservatives used to count on.
And any movement in one direction will repel voters on the other side. Current Conservative positioning is both not popular enough and probably as popular as it gets.
All I can say is that I wouldn't have started from here.
I agree with at least some of what JohnO says. Competence, and putting together a policy set that will appeal to younger people. That doesn't mean going all BBC3. Just recognise the aspirations of the generation who might hope to own a home and raise a family. That's what Conservatives used to do.
It’s a copy of the whole of the real one in a single block of memory, bolted to a robot stomping round the Arizona Desert.
At a time when Twitter has a totally maverick boss who doesn’t give a f**k about profits and wants to stand up for freedom of speech.
Edit: seriously, though, Luckyguy seems to me to be a typical Conservative party member, except younger.
Buy Priti Patel everyone!
We went to Redcar last night because the weather was decent. When you walk along the sea front and see that another few shops have closed it does get rather depression.
Depending upon how awful.
You could go to the pub and be guaranteed a seat.
Unlike the EDL bunch in Southport.
But an illustration that there’s two sides of American politics, and the Deplorables are now pushing back on the Wierd.
https://comicallyincorrect.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/weirred-ci-1080-1050x750.jpg
Credit: https://x.com/afbranco/status/1818671580479996252
Meanwhile, #IStandWithAngelaCarini is trending no.1 worldwide, and the Olympics are about to get swallowed by the culture war.
https://x.com/riley_gaines_/status/1818979704319156500
https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1818993613113634982
The anti-Tory party was dominant in the UK for over 20 years. It was really only finally beaten, in England at least, in 2015. That could have been the start of something. Instead, the Tories revived it and it is bigger, more ferocious, more efficiently distributed and better organised than ever. If the Tories ignore its existence or decide it can be ignored, they are not coming back to power for a very long time.
You should also have a pact with Reform, Reform can win seats in place the Tories will never reach. So pretending you can win in WWC seats is pointless, let Farage go shit stirring on Labour while you refocus on Blue wall. As my good mate Adolf found out fighting a war on two fronts is a mugs game.
I coul go on but Ive got 5 years of Labour failure to laugh at so theres no rush.