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The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. – politicalbetting.com
The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. – politicalbetting.com
And on the flip side, Biden was pretty strong with older white voters in the North East – are Maine and New Hampshire more competitive in Trump v Harris?
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I wonder if with Harris we might have to upend that assumption? Certainly, her polling numbers are better than Biden's and within MoE with Trump - but if that's by a sudden solidifying of her position in Maine and New Hampshire I don't think we're looking at Texas being in play.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjk3p4jnnl6o
I think many teachers will recognise the issues as reading across to OFSTED too.
Jean Charles de Menezes was the big failure. Thankful the person in charge that day didn't get promoted up the chain...
A lot of people had been struggling in the run up to 1992, but John Major got away with it. And whilst he wasn't that new really (he'd been a Cabinet minister, and mostly in the Treasury for years), he was a fresh face for many voters. And the dumping of Maggie was enough blood sacrifice to appease the public.
How likely is it that something similar is happening in the US?
Imagine providing a predominantly plant based menu at an elite sporting event. Who the fuck thought that was a good idea.
That needs to happen to this copper. Whatever, literally whatever, went on before is irrelevant.
Dem gain NC
GOP gain WI, PA, MI, NV
EV tie
And yes, it would have been much better to have this discussion as part of the election process. But Party A has made it clear that they are willing to lie and say that everything if ticketyboo, what is Party B to do? To tell the truth is to lose, to join in the lie is complicity- though a bit less culpable than what Party A has done.
It's why the taboo against lying in politics (you don't have to tell the whole truth, but what you say must be true) is so important, because otherwise it becomes the cheat code to victory. Johnson and Cummings smashed it into a zillion pieces, and it's going to take time and effort to restore.
A hell of a lot, I suspect.
And anyone who watched the videos of recent car factory builds will see that it outpaces anything in the 1930s.
And how do you compare a semiconductor fab with ... a typewriter factory ?
@RonFilipkowski
Trump said he was going to testify in the Trump Univ case - 🐓’d out.
Said he would testify in Carroll trial- 🐓’d out.
Said he would testify in NY fraud trial - 🐓’d out.
Said he would testify in NY criminal trial - 🐓’d out.
Said he would debate Harris - 🐓’d out.
🐓🐓🐓🐓
@mmpadellan
If your VP pick has to run around denying that he fucked a couch, you officially picked the worst VP.
EVER.
He is talking about the “books” being open in the sense that everyone can see spending plans, anticipated tax receipts and debt interest in the Treasury and OBR forecasts.
However, that’s like me saying there’s no black hole in my house renovation budget because I have the original builder’s quotes and I know what salary I’m getting this year. But what Reeves is talking about is the equivalent of those overruns your building project always gets when they find damp in the stairwell or discover the boiler is shot and needs replacing. Nobody in opposition can do anything more than make suppositions on this.
Looks like it’ll be a busy week of journo conversations for me coming up.
It's probably not possible if you adopt that diet the week before the Olympics.
It's quite possible that Harris will be favourite in a few weeks' time.
Edit: also, the bigger the factory is the less you spend per cubic metre. Square versus cube scaling.
And no need to include a steam engine as prime mover for the energy.
"During the early 1990s, while still playing, he admitted that he was a "lying" vegetarian since he occasionally ate shrimp and fish. He took fish oil and was macrobiotic and played the large part of his NBA career as a vegetarian, albeit loosely."
https://thebeet.com/former-nba-champ-john-salleys-tips-for-plant-based-living/
I am sure it works for some to be full vegan, but the documentary that convinced a load of athletes to try was full of BS and most rapidly returned to not being vegan.
But forcing that diet (or vegetarian) on people is ridiculous.
This states:
"The break-even point is about 14 years
"The price of a typical 3.5 kilowatt-peak PV solar panel system is about £7,000. Based on the Energy Saving Trust's figures, it could take someone living in the middle of the country, in a typical home, anywhere between 12 and 17 years to recoup the costs of installing panels, based on current Energy Price Cap rates. This depends on how much electricity you use and when you use it, and what you're paid under the smart export guarantee."
That dosent look like a good deal to me?
In fact it looks bloody awful.
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/free-solar-panels/
And as for the couch thing, was it a satirical jape that got out of hand? Very revealing of what some people think of him though- like Major's underpants, the assumption that it's plausible.
If I was to change your line to: "One aggressor is partially overpowered by another group of people, and he is held on the floor, but he is still struggling There is a knife (gun) present nearby. If I then go up to the person on the floor and kick him in the face to help overpower him..."
The presence of the officer's gun is also an interesting point.
It could well be that the officer's actions were totally out of order; out of order but understandable. or reasonable given the circumstances.
We do not know.
The apoplexy Trump and his followers will have of being denied the Presidency after winning the popular vote due to the machinations of the Electoral College would be amazing.
Reeves is now fessing up to what everyone paying attention already knew.
“This is one of the oldest and most effective tricks in politics. Every hack in the business has used it in times of trouble, and it has even been elevated to the level of political mythology in a story about one of Lyndon Johnson’s early campaigns in Texas.
“The race was close and Johnson was getting worried. Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumour campaign about his opponent’s life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his barnyard sows.
“Christ, we can’t get away with calling him a pig-fucker,” the campaign manager protested. “Nobody’s going to believe a thing like that.”
“I know,” Johnson replied. “But let’s make the sonofabitchh deny it.”
There was barely concealed antagonism between Dick and the Gun Squad which contributed to a series of errors and miscommunications leading up to the shooting.
I'm not sure they were forcing it on anyone ?
They were more likely just incompetent in estimating demand.
(its a salary sacrifice AVC that bolts onto a DB pension scheme and forms the up to 25% cash lump sum - effectively with a 5% of your gross pay contribution limit).
Prior to child benefit limit going up to £60k I was getting about 70% marginal tax relief on AVCs and a few years before that when I had five kids on child benefit I also qualified for a small amount of tax credits and got in excess of 100% tax relief on pension AVCs, which was quite absurd.
Eg the the independent pay review figure for teachers and the NHS had been given to the prior government in April I believe, but was left unpublished and unresponded to until after the election. Considering the OBR figures didn't include this, that is a legitimate black hole.
Similarly prisons. The country needs more prison spaces, but they've not been budgeted for. How is that going to happen?
Decisions that were known had to be made prior to the election, but were postponed until post-election to evade them being in the OBR data, are a black hole.
EF Education-EasyPost riders who are usually vegan or vegetarian will eat chicken and fish during a Grand Tour, according to Blandy.
“You can live perfectly fine as a vegan athlete, but when you're required to eat so much protein, it’s very difficult to do so with natural foods,” he says.
“Beans, nuts and seeds have a lot of protein, but you’ll consume too much fat and fibre along with them.”
https://www.bikeradar.com/features/how-tour-de-france-pros-fuel-cool-hydrate
Whether she can continue to surprise on the upside - she's certainly been more impressive than during the last campaign - will likely decide the election.
My chimney has a crack in it. A builder has looked at it and quoted for the job. He has also said that while he was up there he couldn't help noticing my entire rear roof was fucked, does he want me to have a good look at it and estimate for that? Analogously the chimney quote is accessible to the OBR, the new government knows nothing about the roof till it sees my notes after it has taken office.
I don’t care what JD Vance does as long as the couch was over 18 years old and it wasn’t just a one nightstand.
This is on a par with the sort of things that happened in Ireland in 1921.
"France’s train network sabotaged in ‘massive arson attack’ hours ahead of Olympics opening ceremony
Services on several routes cancelled after TGV facilities damaged, country’s rail operator says
“SNCF was the victim of several simultaneous malicious acts overnight,” the national train operator said, adding that the attacks affected its Atlantic, northern and eastern lines."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/26/france-train-network-sabotaged-olympics/
Wonder why Lewises figures are so cautious, most schemes being enrichment vehicles for middlemen at the expense of the unwary perhaps?
That people deliberately take action to avoid dramatic cliff-edges is not new information and is why cliff edges shouldn't exist, whether it be coming off UC, 50k or anywhere else.
If that means a higher base rate, but no cliff edges, then that's better than a theoretically lower base rate but then far higher rate in reality.
Especially since our current tax system means that of four people, one on £16k, one on £50k, one on £100k, and one on £160k . . . it is the latter that faces the lowest marginal tax rate.
Women is the big one. I still think this will be the abortion election and the anger against the SC overturning Roe will be much better marshalled by Kamala than Biden could have managed. She needs a big lead amongst women to offset other areas of weakness.
The change from TC to UC would have done for me if I still got it as UC is means tested on capital (savings) as well as income.
If the Democrats bring lots of energy and aggression to the campaign you could see things fall apart for Trump. They have inverted the age/senility debate and their adverts are super punchy - challenging Trump to debate etc
It’s not a diet change you’d make the week before the biggest day of your sporting career, that’s for sure.
Of course the ridicule is really because his politics rather than his libido are highly objectionable and occasionally actually mad.
This time some might just not certify claiming a handful of alleged irregularities means millions of votes cannot be trusted, even if the officials overseeing the counts and the courts say no problem.
However it is also worth noting that even if you were suddenly given access to a full-time personal trainer who can put together a well-supplemented meal plan for you, that it takes your body time to adjust to being on any new diet.
Never make dramatic changes immediately before big days is a good rule of thumb.
The rest can have a rock for breakfast.
Chesterfield Crown Court.