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How Betfair reacted to the failed Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com

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  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    There's no reason Rishi can't stay as leader until December (as Micheal Howard did after losing the 2005 election) unless he is planning to depart for a new life if California after all?

    If so, he should leave now so Penny can be parachuted into his seat! :D
    The word on the street (or on the podcasts) is that Rishi does not fancy the budget response in October. He has previously said he will remain MP for the full term. (Mind you, Nigel Farage thinks he can best serve the people of Clacton from Trumpton, Milwaukee.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Hence the dilemma.

    If she was a couple of points up on Trump, Biden would be toast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Sandpit said:

    Atkinson you idiot. That’s a silly catch to give away.

    400-450 looking like the score now, rather than the 600 or 700 we were thinking after the first hour this morning.

    It's all gone to shit since Francis opened his mouth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 18

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Harris has a much better chance of beating Trump than Biden.
    Yeah, that's pretty much it. It's not a question of who can beat Trump, it's a question of who can replace Biden as candidate in the next few weeks. Bear in mind there's only 110 days to Election Day
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    We, all of us - UK, EU, Ukr - better start preparing for a Trump re-dux 

    (…geddit? )
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    You might be right but on what timescale? That would need to be an short-lived permanent leader rather than a caretaker in the usual sense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Bush’s popularity dipped by November. Kerry led the Democrats to their worst defeat since his fellow Massachusetts liberal Dukakis in 1988
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
    Your Betfair account will not get paid on anyone appointed interim or caretaker leader while the election of the next permanent leader continues. Think Margaret Beckett for Labour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

    Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.

    Biden won't drop out unless for a more electable alternative, he controls almost all the delegates at the DNC convention and will only direct them to back such a candidate if he finds one with clear poll evidence for them
    How do you know that?
    As he has said so and almost all delegates were elected pledged to him
    I think he could drop out if and when he realises how many of his former supporters no longer do so.
    The key words there are "will persuade" and that's why I'm still not shredding my position on him.

    He's a very stubborn man, Harris doesn't poll better, and once he's better from Covid he might come back fighting again.

    Remember he was trying to move an early ballot only a few days ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    Sandpit said:

    Stokes you tw@

    Andy_JS said:

    Election winner, Betfair Xchange

    Trump 1.55
    Harris 5
    Biden 18.5
    M Obama 36
    Newsom 48
    Whitmer 55
    Kennedy 100

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Biden 18.5, WTF?
    I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    When did commentators start talking about a “second new ball”? It’s only a couple of years ago, before then it was just the new ball.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Her biggest problem is that she falls between the stools.

    On the left, she was a prosecutor. As usual, in the US, this involved railroading people into pleading guilty. X number of cases involving her. As a result, her support even in the black community isn’t the 100% solid that Obama got.

    On the Right, she’s seen as trimming her sails to all the defund the police stuff. And California isn’t the most popular state in the swing states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 18

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Harris has a much better chance of beating Trump than Biden.
    Yeah, that's pretty much it. It's not a question of who can beat Trump, it's a question of who can replace Biden as candidate in the next few weeks. Bear in mind there's only 110 days to Election Day
    It is not just about who can beat Trump, where the polling is inconclusive, but who can carry Democrats on their coattails in all the downstream races we do not think about on this side of the Atlantic.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,591

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
    It would be fascinating to see Johnson's performance in a supposedly safe Tory seat under those circumstances.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    While also railroading many black men into plea deals that put them in prison, rather than risking life on totally spurious charges.

    “Make America California Again” is a bigger gift to Trump than an assasin’s bullet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
    Your Betfair account will not get paid on anyone appointed interim or caretaker leader while the election of the next permanent leader continues. Think Margaret Beckett for Labour.
    Boo. Maybe Geoffrey will develop long term ambitions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
    It would be fascinating to see Johnson's performance in a supposedly safe Tory seat under those circumstances.
    A lot would depend on Reform.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    While also railroading many black men into plea deals that put them in prison, rather than risking life on totally spurious charges.

    “Make America California Again” is a bigger gift to Trump than an assasin’s bullet.
    To be fair, lots of the defendants she jammed up were from other minorities. Lots of Latinos.

    Just a bit Light On The White.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Question...

    There is talk that Harris has to be the option otherwise the money raised so far goes to waste as can't be transfered to anyone else.

    What if Harris remains VP but with a different candidate leading the ticket?

    Unlikely I know but interesting none the less
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    I think Geoffrey Cox would make the best interim leader, and so does my betfair account.
    It would be fascinating to see Johnson's performance in a supposedly safe Tory seat under those circumstances.
    Can't see Bozo winning Richmondshire - heck I can't really imagine him trekking around North Yorkshire...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    AFAIK she has not, in the way reparations typically means. She explicitly said she does not support "writing a cheque" for reparations, but does support addressing inequalities and mental health problems etc which is entirely reasonable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,815
    400 runs in a day. Good effort. Could have been better but its still a good effort.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Feeling a bit sad about Biden because he's a decent guy. He's been let down by his entourage.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Sandpit said:

    When did commentators start talking about a “second new ball”? It’s only a couple of years ago, before then it was just the new ball.

    That's a really interesting question.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    FPT - tbh, there's a better case for keeping some of the hereditaries, like the Duke of Wellington and Duke of Malborough, some of whom have had family ties to their land and communities for centuries and are at least English through and through and deeply conscious of their responsibilities, than giving ermine to the likes of Evgeny Lebedev and those who "buy" their way in.

    The most important thing isn't always ideological niceties about inheritance and class.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Harris has a much better chance of beating Trump than Biden.
    Yeah, that's pretty much it. It's not a question of who can beat Trump, it's a question of who can replace Biden as candidate in the next few weeks. Bear in mind there's only 110 days to Election Day
    It is not just about who can beat Trump, where the polling is inconclusive, but who can carry Democrats on their coattails in all the downstream races we do not think about on this side of the Atlantic.
    It’s not just Senate and House elections but state legislature elections in 44 states . The UK media pays little attention to the latter .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Interesting piece in the NYT on how Trump has sidelined social conservatives in the Republican party:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/trump-gop-platform-convention.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 18
    The new ball is supposed to be an advantage for the bowlers, rather than the batsmen.

    Edit: and I write that just as Woakes cats caught in the slips.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "A stunning scene played out at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday as a group of GOP senators chased Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle through the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, shouting that she has refused to answer questions regarding the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.

    “This was an assassination attempt! You owe the people answers. You owe president Trump answers!” Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn shouted at Cheatle, who continued to walk with her head down and ignore the senators’ criticism.

    “It’s stonewalling!” Sen. John Barrasso, the No. 3 Senate Republican."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/senators-confront-cheatle-rnc/index.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,815
    Sandpit said:

    The new ball is supposed to be an advantage for the bowlers, rather than the batsmen.

    Edit: and I write that just as Woakes cats caught in the slips.

    And it got Woakes with a sharp catch from Holder. Woakes is looking a solid number 8, it has to be said.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    DavidL said:

    400 runs in a day. Good effort. Could have been better but its still a good effort.

    To be followed by the double dismissal of the Windies team tomorrow. (Hopefully not but you wouldn't rule it out).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Her biggest problem is that she falls between the stools.

    On the left, she was a prosecutor. As usual, in the US, this involved railroading people into pleading guilty. X number of cases involving her. As a result, her support even in the black community isn’t the 100% solid that Obama got.

    On the Right, she’s seen as trimming her sails to all the defund the police stuff. And California isn’t the most popular state in the swing states.
    Harris does better with Black voters than Biden, and far better than Trump.

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1813667374631190594?t=PsJzHx9SDA2mXgZ8GpdgFQ&s=19

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 18
    Andy_JS said:

    "A stunning scene played out at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday as a group of GOP senators chased Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle through the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, shouting that she has refused to answer questions regarding the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.

    “This was an assassination attempt! You owe the people answers. You owe president Trump answers!” Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn shouted at Cheatle, who continued to walk with her head down and ignore the senators’ criticism.

    “It’s stonewalling!” Sen. John Barrasso, the No. 3 Senate Republican."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/senators-confront-cheatle-rnc/index.html

    Does anyone else find it amusing, that the head of the Secret Service doesn’t have enough personal security to avoid embarrassing questions being put to her face?

    Now she should obviously have resigned on Sunday morning, when it became obvious just how much the police screwed up on Saturday.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    And most importantly, abortion.

    If she can get women voting by that she will win.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    FPT - tbh, there's a better case for keeping some of the hereditaries, like the Duke of Wellington and Duke of Malborough, some of whom have had family ties to their land and communities for centuries and are at least English through and through and deeply conscious of their responsibilities, than giving ermine to the likes of Evgeny Lebedev and those who "buy" their way in.

    The most important thing isn't always ideological niceties about inheritance and class.

    A compromise might be allow a few of them to retain speaking and sitting rights but without being able to vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,815
    edited July 18
    Not sure Bashir would have been delighted with that no ball. Another very fast delivery to face tonight.

    And he perishes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,415
    Andy_JS said:

    Feeling a bit sad about Biden because he's a decent guy. He's been let down by his entourage.

    It's not done yet. In the UK this would be like Boris, and he'd stand down.

    Doesn't necessarily work like that in the US.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT - tbh, there's a better case for keeping some of the hereditaries, like the Duke of Wellington and Duke of Malborough, some of whom have had family ties to their land and communities for centuries and are at least English through and through and deeply conscious of their responsibilities, than giving ermine to the likes of Evgeny Lebedev and those who "buy" their way in.

    The most important thing isn't always ideological niceties about inheritance and class.

    A compromise might be allow a few of them to retain speaking and sitting rights but without being able to vote.
    If any are particularly useful, why not make them life peers?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited July 18
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    The levels of illiteracy at the BBC are becoming unbelievable.

    A headline on the website from more than an hour ago begins "UK will deepen co-oporation ..."

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,815
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    400 runs in a day. Good effort. Could have been better but its still a good effort.

    To be followed by the double dismissal of the Windies team tomorrow. (Hopefully not but you wouldn't rule it out).
    Their batting seems their weaker skill. It would be surprising (although more entertaining) if they are still batting at this time tomorrow.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    400 runs in a day. Good effort. Could have been better but its still a good effort.

    To be followed by the double dismissal of the Windies team tomorrow. (Hopefully not but you wouldn't rule it out).
    Their batting seems their weaker skill. It would be surprising (although more entertaining) if they are still batting at this time tomorrow.
    Even if we enforce the follow-on?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    416 a good score I think. Let’s see what happens tomorrow morning.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT - tbh, there's a better case for keeping some of the hereditaries, like the Duke of Wellington and Duke of Malborough, some of whom have had family ties to their land and communities for centuries and are at least English through and through and deeply conscious of their responsibilities, than giving ermine to the likes of Evgeny Lebedev and those who "buy" their way in.

    The most important thing isn't always ideological niceties about inheritance and class.

    A compromise might be allow a few of them to retain speaking and sitting rights but without being able to vote.
    If any are particularly useful, why not make them life peers?
    Marlborough family is a pretty good indicator that if they are any good they can make it via the commons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,643
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    It's not about identity politics, it's that Harris is the existing VP, and already features on all the campaign literature as the VP nominee.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    It's too early to say. Harris might energise the race in ways we can't predict atm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    NEW THREAD

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    edited July 18
    Eleven hours of Times Radio election coverage from a whole fortnight ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53ZuE4V5Jc0

    Presented by Matt Chorley who iirc has been signed up by the BBC now. It is where I spent much of ekection night. Its budget of £2.50 meant there were no gimmicks like the main channels.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,815

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    400 runs in a day. Good effort. Could have been better but its still a good effort.

    To be followed by the double dismissal of the Windies team tomorrow. (Hopefully not but you wouldn't rule it out).
    Their batting seems their weaker skill. It would be surprising (although more entertaining) if they are still batting at this time tomorrow.
    Even if we enforce the follow-on?
    I'd like to see more competitive game. But we shall see.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Interesting piece in the NYT on how Trump has sidelined social conservatives in the Republican party:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/trump-gop-platform-convention.html

    JD Vance though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    And most importantly, abortion.

    If she can get women voting by that she will win.
    That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Sandpit said:

    Stokes you tw@

    Andy_JS said:

    Election winner, Betfair Xchange

    Trump 1.55
    Harris 5
    Biden 18.5
    M Obama 36
    Newsom 48
    Whitmer 55
    Kennedy 100

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927

    Biden 18.5, WTF?
    I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
    I do think he's going but that is value imo.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!

    Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.

    Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).

    We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    And most importantly, abortion.

    If she can get women voting by that she will win.
    That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
    This was the presumption prior to his dementia. The revocation of Roe vs Wade led to a lot of pro-choice people voting against Trump and that and his crimes led to a lot of independents voting against Trump. Those factors were big and would have made Biden a shoo-in in 2024. But his dementia has broken all that and if he remains in place Biden will lose. I think that even given Harris's known deficiencies she would reattract the prochoice and independents and bring herself back into play.
  • What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!

    Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.

    Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).

    We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…

    I was once informed by a supply chain bod that they wouldn't order the cable I had requested because they were now going to order a cheaper, supposedly identical cable from an alternative supplier.

    I said that this was fine, but they should realise that by changing the design they were now under the construction, design and management regulations deemed the designer, and should, for example this alternative cable not meet the clients bespoke and onerous fire (combustability) requirements, their life would get very interesting in the Chinese Proverb sense.

    The U turn came within the hour.
  • viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Even if that's true, replacing Biden with anyone else than Harris will surely infuriate the identity-obsessed Democrat base. Unless they have another black woman handy?
    Far from being an elitist with the ideology of Dukakis, she lost in the nomination race last week by being too pro-Police and anti-crime at a time when the Democrats were concerned about Police brutality and on the side of Black Lives Matter etc

    HYUFD totally gets Harris wrong.
    Kerry was a prosecutor too, fat lot of good it did him. Harris has also been firmly woke as VP in her agenda. She would be the worst Democrat nominee since Kerry, maybe even Dukakis. Trump would easily beat her in the rustbelt
    Kerry was a decent candidate who ran Bush very close, despite Bush having had record popularity in recent times post-9/11.

    Name anything "woke" or "Dukakis" like about Harris. You're just spewing your own bile.
    Harris has backed reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms, you name it
    And most importantly, abortion.

    If she can get women voting by that she will win.
    That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
    This was the presumption prior to his dementia. The revocation of Roe vs Wade led to a lot of pro-choice people voting against Trump and that and his crimes led to a lot of independents voting against Trump. Those factors were big and would have made Biden a shoo-in in 2024. But his dementia has broken all that and if he remains in place Biden will lose. I think that even given Harris's known deficiencies she would reattract the prochoice and independents and bring herself back into play.
    Such a terrible thing to allow elected legislatures to decide the matter rather than unelected judges creatively interpreting a clause in a 200 year old constitution written by puritans with religious views much like the DUP who intended the clause in the constitution to offer no such right and would have been outraged to the level of apoplexy at the mere suggestion of it.
  • kinabalu said:

    Interesting piece in the NYT on how Trump has sidelined social conservatives in the Republican party:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/trump-gop-platform-convention.html

    JD Vance though.
    He is a traditionalist "Latin Mass" Catholic. More Jacob Rees Mogg than evangelical hardliner. A very big difference
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Washington Post reporting Obama has said Biden should stand aside. Other reports say Biden may announce he is doing so at the weekend.

    Strangely enough it might be the assassination attempt on Trump that has been the final straw that means Biden has to go.

    Biden and Trump are roughly the same age, and Trump is madder than Biden, but as despicable as he is the imagery of him with blood on his face fist raised contrasted with doddery, frail Biden . . . its not a good look for Biden.

    Totally agree.

    The current US media narrative is all about what a second Trump presidency will bring not whether he will win the election. That is now a given. The only way to change the narrative is to change the facts on the ground - and that means a new Democratic candidate. I also think that the triumphalism at the GOP Convention, the cultism and the unequivocal embrace of MAGA will worry a lot of Independents, women especially. There are things to exploit for a Trump opponent who is not Biden.

    If the Democrats replace Biden with Harris that is it, Trump will win comfortably and the GOP will win Congress too. There might be a case to replace Biden with a rust belt governor like Shapiro but Harris would be political suicide.

    She is an elitist coastal liberal who combines the ideology of Dukakis and Kerry with the common touch of Hillary Clinton and entitlement of Al Gore. She encapsulates all the losers who were Democratic presidential candidates in the last few decades in one
    Yes, *but* she's a "clean skin" and she can bring African-Americans with her. Plus she'll pick up the Biden guilt-vote, as some people will feel guilty about being nasty to that nice old man with the big plane.
    She's not just black, she's half-Indian too!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    betting implications

    @benrileysmith

    EXC: A plan to replace Rishi Sunak with an interim Tory leader is increasingly being discussed at senior party levels

    If party goes long and decides to pick a permanent leader after Tory conference (so Oct/Nov/Dec) then Sunak could go within weeks. Story:

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1813972566849290252

    George Osborne mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. He suggested James Cleverly might be interim leader, which of course would rule him out of the main gig. Jeremy Hunt was mentioned yesterday. We can dismiss fantasies about Cameron or Hague or anyone else from outside the Commons because the LotO's main duty in October will be responding to the budget, which of course means an actual MP.
    Boris got a photo with Trump and is now on manoeuvres.

    After Rishi and Hunt led the Tories to landslide defeat and massive leakage to Reform he can now say ‘told you so.’ There are Johnson loyalists in Parliament who would give up their seats for his return and an interim leader could then just hold the fort for Boris, Prince across the water.

    If Trump returns to office after losing power, Boris will think he can too!
    How much of Toryland will see photos with Trump as a positive?
This discussion has been closed.