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How Betfair reacted to the failed Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited August 2024 in General
imageHow Betfair reacted to the failed Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com

I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,827
    First like Trump
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    Second, but exciting though that might be there's some Biden news too it seems
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    FPT
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    America was literally millimeters from disaster as a country. The civil unrest would have been off the scale if that bullet had taken out Trump.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,032
    Without having done any calculations, I would guess that quite a lot of the movement of Trump's price is being driven by the betting on which of Biden and Harris will be the Democrat nominee. The markets think (apparently as Trump does) that Harris is more likely to win against Trump, so if Harris is deemed more likely to be the nominee, Trump will be less likely to win.

    So the latest decrease in Trump's implied probability of winning is probably more to do with Kamala Harris than Gerald Ford.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wow, that is surprisingly long. Deserved but surprising.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    It’s the French being French. They didn’t like the last UK government so they let the boats across. They do like this one, so they let the migrants be brought back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    "The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating."

    And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First like Trump

    I was gonna make some joke about Biden and how he thinks second is first but it wasn't very funny
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 327
    If you had a losing bet on England in the Euros, hold on to your betting slip.

    There has been a formal complaint to UEFA by the Gibraltar FA about the behaviour of members of the Spanish team at the celebrations in Madrid.

    I make no comment on the politics, but it would be within UEFAs rules for Spain to be disqualified

    I haven't, and didn't have, a bet, but as this is a betting site, you ought to know.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Nigelb said:

    "The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating."

    And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.

    The US PredictIt market has been swinging 65-35 in either direction since the debate. One hell of an opportunity for day traders to make a fortune, and many of them have been doing just that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    Look at the last lot; look at the current lot.

    I think it's probably a mix of being considerably less rude and confrontational towards the French, and being slightly less incompetent.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,387
    Sandpit said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    It’s the French being French. They didn’t like the last UK government so they let the boats across. They do like this one, so they let the migrants be brought back.
    Until they want something from us or we annoy them about something.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,586
    Nigelb said:

    "The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating."

    And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.

    My ideal betting position is if Biden is confirmed as the nominee at the convention then stands down for Harris or Whitmer who win in November.

    I am so going to the poorhouse if it is Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,455
    FPT:
    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,586
    edited July 2024
    franklyn said:

    If you had a losing bet on England in the Euros, hold on to your betting slip.

    There has been a formal complaint to UEFA by the Gibraltar FA about the behaviour of members of the Spanish team at the celebrations in Madrid.

    I make no comment on the politics, but it would be within UEFAs rules for Spain to be disqualified

    I haven't, and didn't have, a bet, but as this is a betting site, you ought to know.

    Not happening but even if it did the Betfair terms wouldn’t pay out.

    It’s a bit like the Betfair rules for F1, they pay out on the people who were on the podium not what happens afterwards when penalties/disqualifications are applied.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    edited July 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    franklyn said:

    If you had a losing bet on England in the Euros, hold on to your betting slip.

    There has been a formal complaint to UEFA by the Gibraltar FA about the behaviour of members of the Spanish team at the celebrations in Madrid.

    I make no comment on the politics, but it would be within UEFAs rules for Spain to be disqualified

    I haven't, and didn't have, a bet, but as this is a betting site, you ought to know.

    Not happening but even if it did the Betfair terms wouldn’t pay out.

    It’s a bit like the Betfair rules of F1, they pay out on the people who were on the podium not what happens afterwards when penalties/disqualifications are applied.
    Why have they got the Republican nominee market still open at the moment ? It doesn't give much confidence that they'll close it at the correct time in November (When the votes are officially counted on 2024's Jan 6th equivalent)

    Edit: Apparently he has to "formally accept" it tonight.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    edited July 2024
    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,714
    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    If you are not 5 you may well be facing a complaint under the Trades Description Act.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    edited July 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    "The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating."

    And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.

    My ideal betting position is if Biden is confirmed as the nominee at the convention then stands down for Harris or Whitmer who win in November.

    I am so going to the poorhouse if it is Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome.
    Having been stuck with a large and ill-considered Biden short from quite early on, I'm now all green on the nominee.
    If Trump wins, I can live with the small loss; anyone else, and quids in.

    (I've been in and out of the Michelle O short so many times I've lost count.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,505
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    America was literally millimeters from disaster as a country. The civil unrest would have been off the scale if that bullet had taken out Trump.
    Has there been any civil unrest after Trump survived? After Reagan was shot?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,057
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    "The frequent crossovers between Harris and Biden is fascinating."

    And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.

    My ideal betting position is if Biden is confirmed as the nominee at the convention then stands down for Harris or Whitmer who win in November.

    I am so going to the poorhouse if it is Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome.
    Having been stuck with a large and ill-considered Biden short from quite early on, I'm now all green on the nominee.
    If Trump wins, I can live with the small loss; anyone else, and quids in.

    (I've been in and out of the Michelle O short so many times I've lost count.)
    Shurely, ‘if Trump wins I will die registering a small loss?’
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Nunu5 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wow, that is surprisingly long. Deserved but surprising.
    I am absolutely opposed to them but my first feeling is it is too long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,057
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    America was literally millimeters from disaster as a country. The civil unrest would have been off the scale if that bullet had taken out Trump.
    Has there been any civil unrest after Trump survived? After Reagan was shot?
    After MLK was shot, definitely.

    I think however it would have been temporary and less serious than some expect. Shock and bewilderment among his supporters would have been more normal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,448
    Chris said:

    Without having done any calculations, I would guess that quite a lot of the movement of Trump's price is being driven by the betting on which of Biden and Harris will be the Democrat nominee. The markets think (apparently as Trump does) that Harris is more likely to win against Trump, so if Harris is deemed more likely to be the nominee, Trump will be less likely to win.

    So the latest decrease in Trump's implied probability of winning is probably more to do with Kamala Harris than Gerald Ford.

    Most of the polling is clear, Harris would not do better than Biden v Trump and in some would do worse.

    PA governor Shapiro might do better but not Harris
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Biden now out to 3.6 on betfair for democrat nominee.

    This is his longest odds so far
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,586
    algarkirk said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wow, that is surprisingly long. Deserved but surprising.
    I am absolutely opposed to them but my first feeling is it is too long.
    I think this is taking into past convictions/suspended sentences these eco terrorists have had in the past.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    Was this done cooperatively? Or did they just use ancient rules about shipwrecked mariners - for centuries, there was a moral/legal obligation to return someone to their point of embarkation, if possible.

    Seem to recall some instance of British blockade ships rescuing French fishermen, during the Napoleonic wars, and putting them on a French beach. Not Pellow, but another captain with a reputation for rescuing people at sea…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    America was literally millimeters from disaster as a country. The civil unrest would have been off the scale if that bullet had taken out Trump.
    Has there been any civil unrest after Trump survived? After Reagan was shot?
    Thankfully not, as he defiantly left the stage still alive.

    If he was dead, thanks to the incompetence of several groups of police charged both with the security of the event and the President himself, there would undoubtedly have been serious civil unrest across the US.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    MPartridge said:

    Biden now out to 3.6 on betfair for democrat nominee.

    This is his longest odds so far

    No, that's incorrect, but there is something in the wind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
    Reading between the lines of their reasoning for reporting to the police - he’d gone missing with an AR-15 clone belonging to dad….
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,050
    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

    Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Malmesbury said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    Was this done cooperatively? Or did they just use ancient rules about shipwrecked mariners - for centuries, there was a moral/legal obligation to return someone to their point of embarkation, if possible.

    Seem to recall some instance of British blockade ships rescuing French fishermen, during the Napoleonic wars, and putting them on a French beach. Not Pellow, but another captain with a reputation for rescuing people at sea…
    Malmesbury said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    Was this done cooperatively? Or did they just use ancient rules about shipwrecked mariners - for centuries, there was a moral/legal obligation to return someone to their point of embarkation, if possible.

    Seem to recall some instance of British blockade ships rescuing French fishermen, during the Napoleonic wars, and putting them on a French beach. Not Pellow, but another captain with a reputation for rescuing people at sea…
    BTW, if it's a first, it's a good scoop for a very local BBC Kent journalist. (Local political journalists an underrated species).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,141
    @LadPolitics

    Kamala Harris is now 7/2 to win the Presidency & 8/11 fav to win the Democratic nomination.

    Donald Trump is also now out to 4/9 (from 1/3). Quite obvious at this point that betting markets believe Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden.

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1813953177370480775
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    The CFTC is trying to close down the very nice and lovely people at Predictit. As these joyless Puritans try to ban nice people, please tell them the error of their ways. Go here. Do good.

    https://aristotle.com/emailimages/PI_Markets-Update_Submit-Comments-for-CFTC-Proposed-Rule_2024.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,076
    Omnium said:

    MPartridge said:

    Biden now out to 3.6 on betfair for democrat nominee.

    This is his longest odds so far

    No, that's incorrect, but there is something in the wind.
    What's incorrect? He is on 3.7 on Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    Andy_JS said:

    Omnium said:

    MPartridge said:

    Biden now out to 3.6 on betfair for democrat nominee.

    This is his longest odds so far

    No, that's incorrect, but there is something in the wind.
    What's incorrect? He is on 3.7 on Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685
    The 'longest odds so far bit'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
    Reading between the lines of their reasoning for reporting to the police - he’d gone missing with an AR-15 clone belonging to dad….
    Indeed. He was missing with a serious gun, and in a bad mood.

    Now I’m sure the local police get one of those every week, but when it’s the day of the political rally one might expect that to be passed on to those in charge of security at the event.

    I’m still in the ‘cock-up’ camp, but only just. The policing failures are many, and a lot of prominent people are already suggesting way too many to be a co-incidence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Andy_JS said:

    Omnium said:

    MPartridge said:

    Biden now out to 3.6 on betfair for democrat nominee.

    This is his longest odds so far

    No, that's incorrect, but there is something in the wind.
    What's incorrect? He is on 3.7 on Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685
    As I originally laid him at over 4, ages ago, it can't be the "longest odds so far".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    edited July 2024
    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    If you are not 5 you may well be facing a complaint under the Trades Description Act.
    But how can they be returned back to France if they were in French waters? (Not being sarcastic. It's an obvious point, [edit] that the waters are part of France.)
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,538
    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
    Reading between the lines of their reasoning for reporting to the police - he’d gone missing with an AR-15 clone belonging to dad….
    Indeed. He was missing with a serious gun, and in a bad mood.

    Now I’m sure the local police get one of those every week, but when it’s the day of the political rally one might expect that to be passed on to those in charge of security at the event.

    I’m still in the ‘cock-up’ camp, but only just. The policing failures are many, and a lot of prominent people are already suggesting way too many to be a co-incidence.
    Ruby Ridge was a cockup, Waco was a cockup. Both lead to an horrific backlash.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,084
    Does anybody have any realistic assessment of whether Biden will stay in or not?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    viewcode said:

    Does anybody have any realistic assessment of whether Biden will stay in or not?

    17.3m matched on BF. I'm not sure you'll get a better guide.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
    Reading between the lines of their reasoning for reporting to the police - he’d gone missing with an AR-15 clone belonging to dad….
    Indeed. He was missing with a serious gun, and in a bad mood.

    Now I’m sure the local police get one of those every week, but when it’s the day of the political rally one might expect that to be passed on to those in charge of security at the event.

    I’m still in the ‘cock-up’ camp, but only just. The policing failures are many, and a lot of prominent people are already suggesting way too many to be a co-incidence.
    Scene : An American Police station

    Fred : "Dave, we've got another report of angry teenager taking off with dad's AR-15"
    Dave : "Slow day. Only 23 reports like this, this morning. Spring Break?"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,076
    edited July 2024
    Ed Davey being questioned by Jason Beer KC at the Post Office Inquiry.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZhKIjTFH5A

    "@PoliticsJOE_UK

    Former Post Office Minister Ed Davey was not aware that the Post Office could prosecute subpostmasters"

    https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1813945204497637738
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Hallelujah! People could have died.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,448
    williamglenn said:

    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

    Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.

    Biden won't drop out unless for a more electable alternative, he controls almost all the delegates at the DNC convention and will only direct them to back such a candidate if he finds one with clear poll evidence for them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,448
    Scott_xP said:

    @LadPolitics

    Kamala Harris is now 7/2 to win the Presidency & 8/11 fav to win the Democratic nomination.

    Donald Trump is also now out to 4/9 (from 1/3). Quite obvious at this point that betting markets believe Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden.

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1813953177370480775

    Yes I believe betting markets also had Hillary Clinton favoured over Trump in 2016 too
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    edited July 2024
    viewcode said:

    Does anybody have any realistic assessment of whether Biden will stay in or not?

    It is impossible to make one.

    He's dug in like an Alabama tick.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K63AVSCPcSI
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    viewcode said:

    Does anybody have any realistic assessment of whether Biden will stay in or not?

    I don't claim any great insight.

    But I think he's out. The killer stat is the polls showing that two thirds of Democratic voters want him to pass on the baton.
    No one has taken any particularly serious flack for the previous attempt to go public on wanting him to go, and now the big guns (Pelosi, Jeffries etc) have called time.

    Denial can only extend so far.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,050
    Biden's gaffe rate is only going to increase. The latest is that he forgot the Secretary of Defence's name and referred to him as “the black man”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZTdMeN3q8
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,505
    Minister seeks to sack chair of miscarriages of justice review body
    ...
    The justice secretary is to seek the sacking of the chair of the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) following the publication of a review into the case of Andrew Malkinson.

    Shabana Mahmood said Helen Pitcher - who heads up the body responsible for investigating alleged miscarriages of justice - was "unable to fulfil her duties".

    An independent review published on Thursday found Mr Malkinson, who waited 20 years to be exonerated of rape, was completely failed by the key agency reviewing his case.

    The damning report concludes he could have been freed five years after receiving a life sentence for a 2003 rape.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2q0gdd9v04o

    Day of reckoning for the NU10K or a one-off?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Michelle O is at 20, if anyone wants another go at laying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Minister seeks to sack chair of miscarriages of justice review body
    ...
    The justice secretary is to seek the sacking of the chair of the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) following the publication of a review into the case of Andrew Malkinson.

    Shabana Mahmood said Helen Pitcher - who heads up the body responsible for investigating alleged miscarriages of justice - was "unable to fulfil her duties".

    An independent review published on Thursday found Mr Malkinson, who waited 20 years to be exonerated of rape, was completely failed by the key agency reviewing his case.

    The damning report concludes he could have been freed five years after receiving a life sentence for a 2003 rape.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2q0gdd9v04o

    Day of reckoning for the NU10K or a one-off?

    As previously explained, the process is

    1) She has to step down.
    2) Sadly this means she has to take her full pension and a golden goodbye.
    3) Equally, she is completely unable to avoid stepping into a new position. A better one
    4) A couple of years down the line, she gives an interview about how she was the real victim in all this.

    Note that she has already moved to Chair of Judicial Appointments Commission (JAC), so she is probably picking the next judges for the Supreme Court.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

    Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.

    Biden won't drop out unless for a more electable alternative, he controls almost all the delegates at the DNC convention and will only direct them to back such a candidate if he finds one with clear poll evidence for them
    How do you know that?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,165
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    Nigelb said:

    Michelle O is at 20, if anyone wants another go at laying.

    Been max bank red for ages tbh. Her and Newsom.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,050
    Another major security breach at the RNC:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1813798118908960843
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,613
    viewcode said:

    Does anybody have any realistic assessment of whether Biden will stay in or not?

    Not on here, no.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Tweedledee said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats

    Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.

    Biden won't drop out unless for a more electable alternative, he controls almost all the delegates at the DNC convention and will only direct them to back such a candidate if he finds one with clear poll evidence for them
    How do you know that?
    in HYUFDland, 'We have always been at war with Eastasia'; until such a time as the reality changes, and then 'We have always been at war with Oceania'.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,435
    Malmesbury said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Minister seeks to sack chair of miscarriages of justice review body
    ...
    The justice secretary is to seek the sacking of the chair of the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) following the publication of a review into the case of Andrew Malkinson.

    Shabana Mahmood said Helen Pitcher - who heads up the body responsible for investigating alleged miscarriages of justice - was "unable to fulfil her duties".

    An independent review published on Thursday found Mr Malkinson, who waited 20 years to be exonerated of rape, was completely failed by the key agency reviewing his case.

    The damning report concludes he could have been freed five years after receiving a life sentence for a 2003 rape.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2q0gdd9v04o

    Day of reckoning for the NU10K or a one-off?

    As previously explained, the process is

    1) She has to step down.
    2) Sadly this means she has to take her full pension and a golden goodbye.
    3) Equally, she is completely unable to avoid stepping into a new position. A better one
    4) A couple of years down the line, she gives an interview about how she was the real victim in all this.

    Note that she has already moved to Chair of Judicial Appointments Commission (JAC), so she is probably picking the next judges for the Supreme Court.
    So, she's alright: JAC?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,141
    DYOR

    @RedboxWire

    SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONFIRM THAT PRESSURE FROM PARTY LEADERS WILL CONVINCE BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK - AXIOS

    https://x.com/RedboxWire/status/1813950778530537878
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,076
    williamglenn said:

    Another major security breach at the RNC:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1813798118908960843

    She doesn't seem to have any self-awareness whatsoever, ie. that most people would like to have a period of time without hearing from her.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    williamglenn said:

    Another major security breach at the RNC:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1813798118908960843

    Interesting. I wonder if TRUSS might be an interesting outside bet for Tory leader? High profile, innovative and experienced - perhaps the solution has been hidden in plain sight, William?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Politico says HYUFD's certainty is based on thin air.

    Democratic delegates erupt over Biden’s nomination in private chats
    Messages shared between Democratic delegates and activists in California, the biggest and one of the bluest states, lay bare the infighting over their nominee’s fitness for a presidential run.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/california-democratic-delegates-private-chats-biden-00169210
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,165
    williamglenn said:

    Biden's gaffe rate is only going to increase. The latest is that he forgot the Secretary of Defence's name and referred to him as “the black man”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZTdMeN3q8

    When I saw that earlier on twitter I thought it was a deep fake. Literally unbelievable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,295
    edited July 2024
    Channelling famous Peter Kay John Smith's advert....Have it....

    Judge Christopher Hehir said Roger Hallam, 58, Daniel Shaw, 38, Louise Lancaster, 58, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu, 35, and Cressida Gethin, 22, had "crossed the line from concerned campaigner to fanatic".

    At Southwark Crown Court, Hallam was sentenced to five years' imprisonment while the other four defendants each received four-year jail terms.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c880xjx54mpo
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Michelle O is at 20, if anyone wants another go at laying.

    Been max bank red for ages tbh. Her and Newsom.
    Unfortunately with interest rates now as they are it becomes impossible to justify tying up money for these things. I've been slightly leaky with my lay of Burnham to be next Labour leader. If politics was a big market for BF then they'd need to pay interest on funds tied up in this sort of bet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,050
    Anabobazina said:

    williamglenn said:

    Another major security breach at the RNC:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1813798118908960843

    Interesting. I wonder if TRUSS might be an interesting outside bet for Tory leader? High profile, innovative and experienced - perhaps the solution has been hidden in plain sight, William?
    I think she's already thinking bigger. The UK has failed her so she must found her own state. Perhaps starting with a compound in South America: Trusstown.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,032
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LadPolitics

    Kamala Harris is now 7/2 to win the Presidency & 8/11 fav to win the Democratic nomination.

    Donald Trump is also now out to 4/9 (from 1/3). Quite obvious at this point that betting markets believe Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden.

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1813953177370480775

    Yes I believe betting markets also had Hillary Clinton favoured over Trump in 2016 too
    By quite a distance, even after the polls had closed and the results had started to come in, if I remember correctly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Biden's gaffe rate is only going to increase. The latest is that he forgot the Secretary of Defence's name and referred to him as “the black man”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZTdMeN3q8

    When I saw that earlier on twitter I thought it was a deep fake. Literally unbelievable.
    Mandatory reference - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4gU74gMbp0
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,165
    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    I've got a half decent (Though not as good as Joe) Harris position but if it's her I think Trump will curb stomp her in November worse than Biden tbh.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    Dump them on a beach near Calais?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,803
    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    Is that with or without stopping the traffic?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,076
    Sky News: CHAPS banking service restored after being down earlier today.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    A lifetime driving ban would be funny. Along with putting them on the no-fly list.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,295
    edited July 2024
    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    The likes of Roger Hallam have been previously convicted on a number of occasions and got suspended prison sentences each time. They have finally run out of road...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,732
    Pulpstar said:

    I've got a half decent (Though not as good as Joe) Harris position but if it's her I think Trump will curb stomp her in November worse than Biden tbh.

    I always get it wrong with US politics, my betting record is awful. Nonetheless I think Harris will humble Trump.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,165
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    A lifetime driving ban would be funny. Along with putting them on the no-fly list.
    Exactly. I think we could all get behind that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,827
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    Biden's gaffe rate is only going to increase. The latest is that he forgot the Secretary of Defence's name and referred to him as “the black man”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZTdMeN3q8

    When I saw that earlier on twitter I thought it was a deep fake. Literally unbelievable.
    Mandatory reference - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4gU74gMbp0
    "You're UNELECTABLE!"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,295
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    A lifetime driving ban would be funny. Along with putting them on the no-fly list.
    But how will they go on their yoga retreat in Bali.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,141
    @NatashaC
    This is the case for the first *British vessel* - French do sometimes do this.

    No formal change in policy - decision made on the condition of those on board.

    French coast guard requested help from British vessel to go back to France - sounds like fears over more deaths may have seen call made

    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1813961633552551983
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,827
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    @michaelkeohan

    NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.

    It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.

    https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195

    How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible

    The French fear a lawyer is in charge of the UK.
    Le ver vert va vers le verre vert.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Malmesbury said:

    Eabhal said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Eabhal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I wonder which violent offenders the government will let free to make space for this lot?
    What an absurd sentence. Give them 24 months community service filing potholes on the M25 instead.
    A life ban from driving would be more appropriate.

    Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
    A lifetime driving ban would be funny. Along with putting them on the no-fly list.
    Withdrawal of their personal right to convert O2 to CO2?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,179
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wow, that is surprisingly long. Deserved but surprising.
    I am absolutely opposed to them but my first feeling is it is too long.
    I think this is taking into past convictions/suspended sentences these eco terrorists have had in the past.
    Where was the violence or threat of violence? Without that, they were just protestors.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Scott_xP said:

    DYOR

    @RedboxWire

    SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONFIRM THAT PRESSURE FROM PARTY LEADERS WILL CONVINCE BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK - AXIOS

    https://x.com/RedboxWire/status/1813950778530537878

    Obama where r u?
  • ajbajb Posts: 164
    When someone actually dies during an election campaign, there is often a sentimental increase in their vote (either if their name remains on the ballot, or if they are replaced by their spouse). If Biden steps down, I wonder if we'd see something similar. Obviously he wouldn't be dead and Harris is not his spouse. But on the other hand, he could tour the country playing on his sacrifice, and then his limitations would be an asset rather than a liability. Assuming he doesn't just go home in a huff, of course. And doesn't wear out everyone's patience before then.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,377
    Reninder: Candidates for high offices in the US can make it easier for protectors in two ways. They can keep their rhetoric cool, and they can campaign at easily protected events.

    The Loser has chosen to do neither.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,586
    sarissa said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    algarkirk said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for the British judiciary.

    Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .

    Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.

    Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.

    The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Wow, that is surprisingly long. Deserved but surprising.
    I am absolutely opposed to them but my first feeling is it is too long.
    I think this is taking into past convictions/suspended sentences these eco terrorists have had in the past.
    Where was the violence or threat of violence? Without that, they were just protestors.
    They’ve ruined sporting events and the wedding of somebody I like, that’s the implicit threat of violence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,448
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, it gets worse…

    https://thepostmillennial.com/parents-of-would-be-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-notified-police-of-concerns-ahead-of-trump-rally

    God, I feel so sorry for those parents. If the police had acted efficiently or competently their son would still be alive. That's awful.
    As gigantic a cock up as it is, just imagine how much worse it would be if Trump had been killed. You could have major unrest and an even more fraught election all because some police and the secret service have been asleep at the wheel.
    Indeed, the conspiracy theorists would have had a field day and scornfully asked are you really pretending that so many professional organisations could possibly have screwed up without being in cahoots with the murder? It would have made 22.11.63 look straightforward. And there would have been a lot more deaths to follow.
    There are a lot of ridiculous aspects to the assassination of JFK, as Oswald really was an oddball, but it didn't have anything like the blatant incompetence of Saturday's events. Conspiracy theorists are having a field day as it is, God knows what they'd be thinking if Trump had died.
    That his own parents called him in to the local police several hours before the event, is utterly damning of the whole security arrangements for the event. So many opportunities for half a dozen different agencies to have apprehended him before the shooting.
    So many many failings…

    This might not be a “cock up or conspiracy” situation

    It might be a cock up AND a conspiracy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    Nigelb said:

    Politico says HYUFD's certainty is based on thin air.

    Democratic delegates erupt over Biden’s nomination in private chats
    Messages shared between Democratic delegates and activists in California, the biggest and one of the bluest states, lay bare the infighting over their nominee’s fitness for a presidential run.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/california-democratic-delegates-private-chats-biden-00169210

    The coverage of the RNC this week appears to be hiding a proper civil war among the Democrats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,295
    Those two blokes who got murdered in Sweden....very strange story.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,417
    Scott_xP said:

    @NatashaC
    This is the case for the first *British vessel* - French do sometimes do this.

    No formal change in policy - decision made on the condition of those on board.

    French coast guard requested help from British vessel to go back to France - sounds like fears over more deaths may have seen call made

    https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1813961633552551983

    Ah - hypothermia and the golden hour?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Nunu5 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DYOR

    @RedboxWire

    SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONFIRM THAT PRESSURE FROM PARTY LEADERS WILL CONVINCE BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK - AXIOS

    https://x.com/RedboxWire/status/1813950778530537878

    Obama where r u?
    Not the guy to persuade Biden not to run.
    He did that before, and it rankled for years.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,505
    Scott_xP said:

    DYOR

    @RedboxWire

    SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONFIRM THAT PRESSURE FROM PARTY LEADERS WILL CONVINCE BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK - AXIOS

    https://x.com/RedboxWire/status/1813950778530537878

    Tweet credits Axios which is less definitive:-
    https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,881
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Politico says HYUFD's certainty is based on thin air.

    Democratic delegates erupt over Biden’s nomination in private chats
    Messages shared between Democratic delegates and activists in California, the biggest and one of the bluest states, lay bare the infighting over their nominee’s fitness for a presidential run.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/california-democratic-delegates-private-chats-biden-00169210

    The coverage of the RNC this week appears to be hiding a proper civil war among the Democrats.
    It's actually quite a civil civil war.
This discussion has been closed.