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How Betfair reacted to the failed Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com

I think punters are slowly realising that two failed assassination attempts on Gerald Ford didn’t help him win the 1976 presidential election.
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Five supporters of the Just Stop Oil climate campaign who conspired to cause gridlock on London’s orbital motorway have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms. .
Roger Hallam, Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were found guilty last week of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance for coordinating direct action protests on the M25 over four days in November 2022.
Hallam received a five year sentence, while the other four were each sentenced to four years.
The sentences are thought to be the longest sentences even given in the UK for non-violent protest, beating those given to Just Stop Oil protesters Morgan Trowland (three years) and Marcus Decker (two years and seven months) for scaling the Dartford Crossing.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/18/five-just-stop-oil-supporters-jailed-over-protest-that-blocked-m25?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
@michaelkeohan
NEW: The Home Office have confirmed to me that last night the Border Force vessel Ranger, returned migrants back to France, after rescuing them in French waters. The FIRST TIME this has EVER happened.
It's not yet clear if this is a direct change of policy from the Home Office.
https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1813934284337791195
How is this possible?? Were the previous government really that incompetent? Have the French had a change of mind? Like please someone explain to me like I'm 5 how this is possible
So the latest decrease in Trump's implied probability of winning is probably more to do with Kamala Harris than Gerald Ford.
And rewarding, if you managed to trade any of it.
There has been a formal complaint to UEFA by the Gibraltar FA about the behaviour of members of the Spanish team at the celebrations in Madrid.
I make no comment on the politics, but it would be within UEFAs rules for Spain to be disqualified
I haven't, and didn't have, a bet, but as this is a betting site, you ought to know.
I think it's probably a mix of being considerably less rude and confrontational towards the French, and being slightly less incompetent.
I am so going to the poorhouse if it is Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome.
It’s a bit like the Betfair rules for F1, they pay out on the people who were on the podium not what happens afterwards when penalties/disqualifications are applied.
Edit: Apparently he has to "formally accept" it tonight.
If Trump wins, I can live with the small loss; anyone else, and quids in.
(I've been in and out of the Michelle O short so many times I've lost count.)
I think however it would have been temporary and less serious than some expect. Shock and bewilderment among his supporters would have been more normal.
PA governor Shapiro might do better but not Harris
This is his longest odds so far
Seem to recall some instance of British blockade ships rescuing French fishermen, during the Napoleonic wars, and putting them on a French beach. Not Pellow, but another captain with a reputation for rescuing people at sea…
If he was dead, thanks to the incompetence of several groups of police charged both with the security of the event and the President himself, there would undoubtedly have been serious civil unrest across the US.
Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.
Kamala Harris is now 7/2 to win the Presidency & 8/11 fav to win the Democratic nomination.
Donald Trump is also now out to 4/9 (from 1/3). Quite obvious at this point that betting markets believe Harris has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden.
https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1813953177370480775
https://aristotle.com/emailimages/PI_Markets-Update_Submit-Comments-for-CFTC-Proposed-Rule_2024.html
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685
Now I’m sure the local police get one of those every week, but when it’s the day of the political rally one might expect that to be passed on to those in charge of security at the event.
I’m still in the ‘cock-up’ camp, but only just. The policing failures are many, and a lot of prominent people are already suggesting way too many to be a co-incidence.
Fred : "Dave, we've got another report of angry teenager taking off with dad's AR-15"
Dave : "Slow day. Only 23 reports like this, this morning. Spring Break?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZhKIjTFH5A
"@PoliticsJOE_UK
Former Post Office Minister Ed Davey was not aware that the Post Office could prosecute subpostmasters"
https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1813945204497637738
He's dug in like an Alabama tick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K63AVSCPcSI
But I think he's out. The killer stat is the polls showing that two thirds of Democratic voters want him to pass on the baton.
No one has taken any particularly serious flack for the previous attempt to go public on wanting him to go, and now the big guns (Pelosi, Jeffries etc) have called time.
Denial can only extend so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WZTdMeN3q8
...
The justice secretary is to seek the sacking of the chair of the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) following the publication of a review into the case of Andrew Malkinson.
Shabana Mahmood said Helen Pitcher - who heads up the body responsible for investigating alleged miscarriages of justice - was "unable to fulfil her duties".
An independent review published on Thursday found Mr Malkinson, who waited 20 years to be exonerated of rape, was completely failed by the key agency reviewing his case.
The damning report concludes he could have been freed five years after receiving a life sentence for a 2003 rape.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2q0gdd9v04o
Day of reckoning for the NU10K or a one-off?
1) She has to step down.
2) Sadly this means she has to take her full pension and a golden goodbye.
3) Equally, she is completely unable to avoid stepping into a new position. A better one
4) A couple of years down the line, she gives an interview about how she was the real victim in all this.
Note that she has already moved to Chair of Judicial Appointments Commission (JAC), so she is probably picking the next judges for the Supreme Court.
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1813798118908960843
@RedboxWire
SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONFIRM THAT PRESSURE FROM PARTY LEADERS WILL CONVINCE BIDEN TO WITHDRAW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK - AXIOS
https://x.com/RedboxWire/status/1813950778530537878
Democratic delegates erupt over Biden’s nomination in private chats
Messages shared between Democratic delegates and activists in California, the biggest and one of the bluest states, lay bare the infighting over their nominee’s fitness for a presidential run.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/california-democratic-delegates-private-chats-biden-00169210
Judge Christopher Hehir said Roger Hallam, 58, Daniel Shaw, 38, Louise Lancaster, 58, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu, 35, and Cressida Gethin, 22, had "crossed the line from concerned campaigner to fanatic".
At Southwark Crown Court, Hallam was sentenced to five years' imprisonment while the other four defendants each received four-year jail terms.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c880xjx54mpo
Honestly it's so OTT I can see some of my crazier friends blocking a road in solidarity. What are they going to do - jail thousands of climate activists and free all the murderers and rapists?
This is the case for the first *British vessel* - French do sometimes do this.
No formal change in policy - decision made on the condition of those on board.
French coast guard requested help from British vessel to go back to France - sounds like fears over more deaths may have seen call made
https://x.com/NatashaC/status/1813961633552551983
The Loser has chosen to do neither.
This might not be a “cock up or conspiracy” situation
It might be a cock up AND a conspiracy
He did that before, and it rankled for years.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats