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Money, money, money – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Four Welsh government ministers resign demanding Gething goes

    How Gething has defied demands to go after he lost a vonc is arrogance and just wrong

    How about Lord Falconer?
    @MisterBedfordshire nice revival of the joke. You don't seem to have been here long enough to know it or are you posting under a different name or are you a long time lurker previously? I tried looking you up to see when you had joined, but noticed you had blocked that. Can I also ask why? I notice several people do and I have never understood why as it doesn't seem to give any privacy benefits. Am I missing something? I hope not. (Panic starting to set in now)
    Was Paul Bedfordshire until left in 2016.
    no idea about the ioining info visibility but rejoined in June.
    Cheers. If you click on a name you can see their posts, posts with likes, when joined, etc, etc. Nothing private. Some people block it. It sounds like some might block it and not realise it then, or it's a default as there really isn't any reason to block and on occasions I have found it very useful to remind myself of an interesting post.

    PS I was being a bit of a pain/pedant on our discussion on Merton the other day. Apologies for being over the top. You obviously knew your stuff.
    Ah so that is what unchecking the make my profile public does.

    As well as living in the borough for much of my life I was a good friend and two or three times a week drinking partner (there were about five of us) of a Merton Labour Councillor in the 80s/early 90s so was quite well aquainted with local issues. Sadly he died of a tumour at quite a young age.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,145
    OT a political footnote from a Telegraph obituary:-

    Jim Burrowes and ‘Dixie’ Lee, last of Australia’s secretive Second World War coastwatchers – obituary
    The legendary network set up to report on Japanese movements represents one of the most illustrious chapters in Australia’s military history
    ...
    The coastwatchers’ contribution to the war effort in reporting on Japanese shipping and air movements had a strategic impact. Their finest hour was in the decisive Guadalcanal campaign, which lasted from August 1942 to February 1943, when they reported on waves of enemy aircraft, assisted in the rescue of the future president John F Kennedy, and oversaw the launch of guerilla raids on the Japanese with the assistance of fearless Solomon Islanders. It led USN Admiral “Bull” Halsey to say: “The coastwatchers saved Guadalcanal, and Guadalcanal saved the South Pacific.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2024/07/15/jim-burrowes-ron-dixie-lee-australia-coastwatchers/ (£££)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    edited July 16

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    You should sign this https://fairershare.org.uk/proportional-property-tax/
  • MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    Cripes. Mine has only just passed £2,000 (band C). Mind you, 15 miles further south an identical property is E or F but at the time of valuations Central Bedfordshire was infested with large numbers of smoke belching brickworks chimneys
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,524

    kjh said:

    eek said:

    Hansard Society is saying that the way opposition days and PMQ questions are shared out probably needs to change now the Tories have only 55% of the opposition seats and not 70-74% (as has always been the case before) https://x.com/HansardSociety/status/1813094972104511809

    If you’re going to do that though you need to have a clear set of agreed principles laid down all parties sign up to respect in future. It strikes me that once you start changing things like this it opens the floodgates for everyone demanding different treatment. I think that is why the system has worked as it has done for some time.
    The system has changed in the past. The UK constitution is one that evolves. The current allocation of PMQ questions only dates back to 1997. It was varied during the 2010-5 coalition.
    How is membership of select committees decided? I think* they have more minor party representation than at PMQs. Maybe there is something there we could look at for a lead in how to arrange things.

    *think, not know. Happy to be corrected.
    Select committee chairs and membership are decided in proportion to how many MPs you won, AIUI.
    Seems a good basis for PMQs and Opposition Days as well. I would also like to see more time being allocated for Back Bench motions/Private Members Bills. Try and reduce some of the party domination in favour of the MPs themselves.
    I know from previous discussions this is something we both agree on. I would like to see the whips offices/role weakened. In fact I would like to see the official whipping operation removed entirely. You can't stop it happening unofficially, but I don't like the fact that it is part of the official process.

    No MP should be officially whipped (I have just realised that might result in some unseemly replies)
    Its nice to know there is at least one other poster on here who shares my view on that.
    Might just prove we are both nuts.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,957
    edited July 16

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    There's some logic in encouraging holiday homes to be available for lettings, as it uses less property for the same number of visitors. Such a CT setup is one way.

    In Ashfield they have a similar regime to aim to keep properties occupied, which just got a little tighter.

    - unfurnished properties get a free period of up to one month after being vacated
    - 25% discount for a further 5 months after being vacated
    - after 6 months full charge applies for up to 18 more months. From 1 April 2024, after 6 months a full charge applies for up to a further 6 months,
    - properties empty for between 2 and 5 years will be charged an additional 100% premium. From 1 April 2024 properties empty for between one and 5 years will be charged an additional 100% premium
    - if a property is empty for 5 years or more you will be charged an additional 200% premium.
    - if a property is empty for 10 years or more you will be charged an additional 300%


    I can't really quarrel with that, even though I once got a little stung when I had a serious illness and couldn't handle a refurb until I recovered, after a Tenant left.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,533
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,957

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    Cripes. Mine has only just passed £2,000 (band C). Mind you, 15 miles further south an identical property is E or F but at the time of valuations Central Bedfordshire was infested with large numbers of smoke belching brickworks chimneys
    Mine's £2500 - band D.

    It all just demonstrates the need to at least revalue, and probably reform.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,569
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    You should sign this https://fairershare.org.uk/proportional-property-tax/
    The problem with that site is that it implies that 0.48% isn't enough to generate extra revenue and the one thing this Government needs is more revenue from wealth (from which we end up with land based taxes as everything else is moveable).
  • eekeek Posts: 27,569
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    Cripes. Mine has only just passed £2,000 (band C). Mind you, 15 miles further south an identical property is E or F but at the time of valuations Central Bedfordshire was infested with large numbers of smoke belching brickworks chimneys
    Mine's £2500 - band D.

    It all just demonstrates the need to at least revalue, and probably reform.
    But revaluation (as I pointed out before) will reveal the true state of this country where even the smallest property in London is now worth more than the best house round here...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,321
    MattW said:

    This is my photo for the day.

    It's a screenshot from a 30 minute video looking at urban zoning and land use, and street design, in Tokyo/Japan. No one will agree with all of it - I don't, but I learnt a lot of new things. His main theme is walkability; I like 'the best way to reduce motor vehicle journeys is to put everything you need closer together.'


    Top surprises for me:

    - Typical "street" width at 5m little more than half the UK standard. Usually here it would be at least 5.5m carriageway and 1.8m x 2 for the footways.
    - The intensely mixed zoning.

    I'd be interested in comments from those who know Japan better than I do,

    https://youtu.be/jlwQ2Y4By0U?t=10

    The biggest surprise to me is that street parking is simply banned in about 95% of places.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,706
    So Gareth Southgate has stood down, famous for waistcoats and players taking the knee.

    Not sure what his legacy will be.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,108
    MattW said:

    This is my photo for the day.

    It's a screenshot from a 30 minute video looking at urban zoning and land use, and street design, in Tokyo/Japan. No one will agree with all of it - I don't, but I learnt a lot of new things. His main theme is walkability; I like 'the best way to reduce motor vehicle journeys is to put everything you need closer together.'


    Top surprises for me:

    - Typical "street" width at 5m little more than half the UK standard. Usually here it would be at least 5.5m carriageway and 1.8m x 2 for the footways.
    - The intensely mixed zoning.

    I'd be interested in comments from those who know Japan better than I do,

    https://youtu.be/jlwQ2Y4By0U?t=10

    MattW said:

    This is my photo for the day.

    It's a screenshot from a 30 minute video looking at urban zoning and land use, and street design, in Tokyo/Japan. No one will agree with all of it - I don't, but I learnt a lot of new things. His main theme is walkability; I like 'the best way to reduce motor vehicle journeys is to put everything you need closer together.'


    Top surprises for me:

    - Typical "street" width at 5m little more than half the UK standard. Usually here it would be at least 5.5m carriageway and 1.8m x 2 for the footways.
    - The intensely mixed zoning.

    I'd be interested in comments from those who know Japan better than I do,

    https://youtu.be/jlwQ2Y4By0U?t=10

    Fascinating.
    There ARE examples of successful narrow streets in Britain. Think of any small picturesque village; think of the lanrs in Brighton; think of Underbank in Stockport. Think of medeival York or Norwich. And they work.
    Common feature: no on-street parking.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,533
    Taz said:

    So Gareth Southgate has stood down, famous for waistcoats and players taking the knee.

    Not sure what his legacy will be.

    It might be that people looked at the way England played (walking pace often, Pickford more of the ball than Kane, etc) and thought: we have player-for-player just as much quality as Spain so something has to change.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,974
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    This is my photo for the day.

    It's a screenshot from a 30 minute video looking at urban zoning and land use, and street design, in Tokyo/Japan. No one will agree with all of it - I don't, but I learnt a lot of new things. His main theme is walkability; I like 'the best way to reduce motor vehicle journeys is to put everything you need closer together.'


    Top surprises for me:

    - Typical "street" width at 5m little more than half the UK standard. Usually here it would be at least 5.5m carriageway and 1.8m x 2 for the footways.
    - The intensely mixed zoning.

    I'd be interested in comments from those who know Japan better than I do,

    https://youtu.be/jlwQ2Y4By0U?t=10

    The biggest surprise to me is that street parking is simply banned in about 95% of places.
    Yeah, you have to prove you have somewhere private to park before you buy a car.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,517

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    And of course there were official snipers (aka suspicious-looking men with guns) on many surrounding buildings. Crucially these were placed by at least two different agencies, likely adding to confusion around whether this latest one was friend or foe.
    8 different outfits, I believe.

    They probably had dozens of reports of armed men on rooftops at every rally.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
    It’s not a bad explanation for some otherwise truly bizarre failures at the rally

    However, if that is the explanation you’d expect the seekyservs and the fbi and the cops to be advancing it, to explain the humongous fuck up. Yet they are not. They are getting tons of flak already - calls to resign, summons to come before Congress - and they are offering no excuses at all

    🧐🧐🧐

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    edited July 16
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    You should sign this https://fairershare.org.uk/proportional-property-tax/
    The problem with that site is that it implies that 0.48% isn't enough to generate extra revenue and the one thing this Government needs is more revenue from wealth (from which we end up with land based taxes as everything else is moveable).
    Well my council tax is £2948.64 (Band E) and property value *checks notes with houseprices.io £412,000 so I'm good up to 0.7% ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    edited July 16
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Second homes taxes are increasingly being used not just in Wales but holiday areas in England

    There is a development of 12 luxury apartments near to us with prices upto 1 million and it is noticeable they are just not selling and would normally attract second home owners

    I think most residents support the restrictions and 200% uplift in council tax
    It isn't all cut and dry. It seems a good idea to enable locals to live in their community rather than being driven out or does it mean that it still happens but only the really rich can now afford it (cf to private school and Vat issue). I don't know.

    We have a 2nd home in Southwold. Southwold has about 60% - 75% (depending upon where you look) 2nd homes. The entire economy is based upon 2nd homes (just look at the shops). It is possibly an extreme example as it is a very small area and they tend to be used all year around (ours is), but there is definitely a difference between a Saturday and a Wednesday in occupancy and prices of a house here are huge (London prices plus, whereas as soon as you cross the bridge out they drop by a factor of 2 or 3). A doubling of the council tax would be affordable to most 2nd home owners and provide extra to the community, but it wouldn't provide an extra home as people will stay and there is nowhere to build more in Southwold (unless you drain the marshes). The people that service the economy come in each day from surrounding villages.

    Is it unique or are there other hot spots rather whole areas being bought up by 2nd home owners.
    Can think of places in Cornwall that are probably not quite as bad but won't be far off, St Ives is a large example but Mousehole would definitely meet your criteria...
    One of my speculations (that I have no data on, but others' might) is that an increase of X in Council Tax should in theory reduce the price of a house by the value of an annuity investment paying X per annum, to balance up.

    So on current returns, if Council Tax is +£1000 per annum, that should knock £25-50k ish (very ish) off the value of the property. Lots of assumptions and ignoring tax factors. As £100k buys around £4k of annuity in a pension.

    Potentially a contribution to balancing up of house values.
    Our council tax is £3,800 this year

    As a holiday home it would be

    £7,600 for 2024

    £11,400 for 2025
    Cripes. Mine has only just passed £2,000 (band C). Mind you, 15 miles further south an identical property is E or F but at the time of valuations Central Bedfordshire was infested with large numbers of smoke belching brickworks chimneys
    Mine's £2500 - band D.

    It all just demonstrates the need to at least revalue, and probably reform.
    But revaluation (as I pointed out before) will reveal the true state of this country where even the smallest property in London is now worth more than the best house round here...
    What precisely is the problem with that ?

    Everyone knows it to be the case anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,952
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
    And, as with a presidential rally in front of many thousands, the cost of cancellation on a false alarm is pretty high.

    Leon's imagination seems to recoil from the humdrum, hence "how on earth did they not...".
    I mean, it's absolutely a fair question, and heads might roll over it, but it's nonetheless fairly easy to come up with plausible explanations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    And of course there were official snipers (aka suspicious-looking men with guns) on many surrounding buildings. Crucially these were placed by at least two different agencies, likely adding to confusion around whether this latest one was friend or foe.
    8 different outfits, I believe.

    They probably had dozens of reports of armed men on rooftops at every rally.
    Are you literally claiming that at every Trump rally dozens of people see an armed man climb on a roof and take aim at Donald Trump?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,521
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
    And, as with a presidential rally in front of many thousands, the cost of cancellation on a false alarm is pretty high.

    Leon's imagination seems to recoil from the humdrum, hence "how on earth did they not...".
    I mean, it's absolutely a fair question, and heads might roll over it, but it's nonetheless fairly easy to come up with plausible explanations.
    I do recoil from the humdrum but I’m hardly alone in finding all this very suspicious. The NYT has a running liveblog on exactly this theme. wtf happened and how and why did security fail THIS badly in SO MANY ways
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,481
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
    And, as with a presidential rally in front of many thousands, the cost of cancellation on a false alarm is pretty high.

    Leon's imagination seems to recoil from the humdrum, hence "how on earth did they not...".
    I mean, it's absolutely a fair question, and heads might roll over it, but it's nonetheless fairly easy to come up with plausible explanations.
    One thing's for sure, the counter-sniper who made the shot to take out the sniper deserves a medal, it was not his fault he had no clearance to shoot earlier.
    Biden would do well to award him before the possibility of Trump...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,282
    edited July 16
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    It is impossible to get a random haircut in Provence. Everywhere is rammed

    Is this literally the only place in Europe that doesn’t have 17,000 Turkish barbers on every high street, laundering money?

    Ok just found one

    You're a gutsy man. I used to get nervous just going to an unfamiliar barber in the same town. Indeed, even a barber I didn't recognise in my usual shop. Going to a shop in a different country - indeed, a country where a different language is spoken! - is brave indeed.
    Hair for me is not so much of an issue nowadays, sadly.
    Many years ago, my the girlfriend (now wife) were going round the world. And we were in Japan. And she decided she needed a haircut, and so we went to some random little hole in the wall place, where there were lots of 20-something girls getting their haircut.

    This was pre-Google Translate, so no one spoke a word of English. And I'm not sure that the Japanese hairdresser had ever cut caucasian hair before.

    And it took about three hours, and they stayed open way past closing time to make it happen.

    But it was one of the most wonderful experiences.

    At the end of it they wanted to take photos of my wife for their walls.
    Lovely story. BUT how did your (eventual) missus like her new hairdo?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,635

    NEW THREAD

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,699
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/private-efforts-biden-step-aside/index.html

    The public calls from Democrats asking President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race have quieted in recent days, but private efforts to nudge the president and his top aides continue, several Democratic sources told CNN.

    Among the efforts, these sources say, are repeated memos from a seasoned and respected Democratic pollster, Stanley Greenberg, sharing his take that Biden is on track to lose the election – and in a way that does deep damage to other Democratic candidates.

    “Lose everything,” is how one Democrat described a polling memo Greenberg sent to Biden’s inner circle in recent days. “Devastating,” was the one word answer of a second Democrat close to the White House who is familiar with the Greenberg memos.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,952
    Interesting result.

    Global decarbonization potential of CO2 mineralization in concrete materials
    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313475121
    ..Our results show that in 2020, 3.9 Gt of carbonatable solid materials were generated globally, with the dominant material being end-of-life cement paste in concrete and mortar (1.4 Gt y–1). All ten of the CO2 mineralization technologies investigated here reduce life cycle CO2-eq. emissions when used to substitute comparable conventional products. In 2020, the global CO2-eq. emissions reduction potential of economically competitive CO2 mineralization technologies was 0.39 Gt CO2-eq., i.e., 15% of that from cement production. This level of CO2-eq. emissions reduction is limited by the supply of end-of-life cement paste. The results also show that it is 2 to 5 times cheaper to reduce CO2-eq. emissions by producing cement from carbonated end-of-life cement paste than carbon capture and storage (CCS), demonstrating its superior decarbonization potential. On the other hand, it is currently much more expensive to reduce CO2-eq. emissions using some CO2 mineralization technologies, like carbonated normal weight aggregate production, than CCS. Technologies and policies that increase recovery of end-of-life cement paste from aged infrastructure are key to unlocking the potential of CO2 mineralization in reducing the CO2-eq. footprint of concrete materials.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,952
    edited July 16
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    There’s more

    “The Secret Service has acknowledged that before Trump went onstage, local officers were searching for a “suspicious” man who had been flagged by passers-by and that the Secret Service was notified of that hunt. The agency has not said how much earlier that search went on or when the agency was notified of it.”

    NYT

    Like wtaf

    How on earth did they not warn Trump and how on earth did they not find the guy on the roof. HE WAS IN THE MOST OBVIOUS PLACE FROM WHICH TO KILL TRUMP

    It just gets weirder and weirder

    The only explanation I can think of is that this is all routine.

    That at every Trump rally, there are loads of suspicious people wandering around, random people climbing things to get a look at Trump, MAGA people with assault rifles flexing their rights.
    That I don't know but I do know that eg UK airports get (or used to get) dozens of bomb threats per day.

    Not that you'd notice if you used any UK airport on one of those days.

    Sometimes you just have to get on with it.

    Which is no comment whatsoever on what may or may have been known or notified in the Trump case.
    And, as with a presidential rally in front of many thousands, the cost of cancellation on a false alarm is pretty high.

    Leon's imagination seems to recoil from the humdrum, hence "how on earth did they not...".
    I mean, it's absolutely a fair question, and heads might roll over it, but it's nonetheless fairly easy to come up with plausible explanations.
    I do recoil from the humdrum but I’m hardly alone in finding all this very suspicious. The NYT has a running liveblog on exactly this theme. wtf happened and how and why did security fail THIS badly in SO MANY ways
    As I said, it's a good question, and there are a lot of people demanding answers.
    I'm just pointing out that there are several plausible explanations, only a couple of which involve conspiracy. And if it's cockup, the the SecServ will be taking its time trying to come up with and excuse (or arguing about whose head is going to be offered up).
  • Eabhal said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Imagine a UK where we had CGT on primary residence over the last 30 years.

    Obviously politically untenable, but might have gone some way to fix the public finances by taxing a huge source of income, spread housing demand around a bit more, made it a less attractive investment, made people less protective of rising house prices and therefore reducing NIMBYism...
    Would have been quite do able if Brown had done it in 1997 (due to the early 90s house price crash)

    And would have stopped the insane post millenium house price rises in their tracks if he had
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,131

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    It is impossible to get a random haircut in Provence. Everywhere is rammed

    Is this literally the only place in Europe that doesn’t have 17,000 Turkish barbers on every high street, laundering money?

    Ok just found one

    You're a gutsy man. I used to get nervous just going to an unfamiliar barber in the same town. Indeed, even a barber I didn't recognise in my usual shop. Going to a shop in a different country - indeed, a country where a different language is spoken! - is brave indeed.
    Hair for me is not so much of an issue nowadays, sadly.
    Real Men (tm) just buy a shaver and do it themselves.

    Or get their wife to do it for them. A handy tip: if you do this, make sure she's not in a bad mood... ;)
    Well yes that's what I do now (the former). It was a lockdown move. It's surprisingly easy to do slightly better than just a no. 1 all over. If I could give my younger self one piece of advice, it would be to go down that route 20 years earlier.
    I sometimes feel a pang of nostalgia looking at old photos in which I had hair, but essentially it was hair which looked good for a few days after a haircut, then rubbish until the next haircut. And which cost me £10 a month.
    I came out of lockdown rather less able to grow hair on the top of my head than was previously the case. But it's rather academic now. In all honesty I'm probably better looking being able to keep the small amount of hair that I have mercilessly cropped than I was 80% of the time when my crowning glory was a mess of black wavy hair.
    There's a guy I occasionally see at a swimming pool who has black hair on his chest, grey eyebrows, and a bald head.
    Chest-to-scalp transplants

    https://roothair.com/2023/08/31/can-hair-be-transplanted-from-the-body-to-the-scalp/
  • Eabhal said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting proposal, and a hysterical reaction. I'd don't believe, but a modest reduction in price should be welcome everywhere.

    I'm not sure what caselaw is around Article 4 directions and relevant planning matters. Normally, who owns a house would not be relevant, but may be so under Change of Use.

    A council has been accused of "playing Russian roulette" with residents' lives over its plan to force people to get planning permission for second homes.

    Cabinet members at Cyngor Gwynedd will vote on Tuesday on whether to enforce the controversial move.

    The local authority said it has a "huge housing crisis", fuelled largely by second homes, and is expected to become the first county in Wales to issue a so-called Article 4 direction, forcing people to obtain planning permission for a second home or short-term holiday let.

    Opponents have said the council is deliberately trying to "crash the housing market" and it could devalue every residential property in the local authority area.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6p2qe073v7o

    Just looked Gwynedd up in the census - a population drop of 3.7% from 2011 to 2021. The council is right to crack down on second homes.

    It's a good example of how "housing crises" in urban and rural areas are different beasts. As the country has become more unequal, the scope for richer households to own more than one house and either short term let it out or leave it empty has increased over time. This is more evident in rural areas, with the supply of housing for residents falling even faster than the population.
    Bigger picture, the UK under-taxes housing, and especially housing that people sit on kept empty, or mostly so.
    Imagine a UK where we had CGT on primary residence over the last 30 years.

    Obviously politically untenable, but might have gone some way to fix the public finances by taxing a huge source of income, spread housing demand around a bit more, made it a less attractive investment, made people less protective of rising house prices and therefore reducing NIMBYism...
    Would have been quite do able if Brown had done it in 1997 (due to the early 90s house price crash)

    And would have stopped the insane post millenium house price rises in their tracks if he had
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,864
    Off topic, but an interesting political tidbit: Here in Washington state, the top two Democrats running for governor, Bob Ferguson and Mark Mullet, are touting their family credentials, and promising to get tough on crime and cut housing costs.

    In short, they are running as moderate Republicans would -- and as Bill Clinton did in his 1992 run for the presidency. (He promised to put another 100,000 police officers o the street--and claimed to be a good family man.)

    In Ferguson's case, it is fair to say that he is, to some extent, running against his own record, as attorney general.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Ferguson_(politician)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mullet

    (Ferguson and his wife have two kids, Mullet and his wife, six.)
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,864
    By the way, in the US, "HMO" usually means Health Maintenance Organization.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 16
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    It is impossible to get a random haircut in Provence. Everywhere is rammed

    Is this literally the only place in Europe that doesn’t have 17,000 Turkish barbers on every high street, laundering money?

    Ok just found one

    You're a gutsy man. I used to get nervous just going to an unfamiliar barber in the same town. Indeed, even a barber I didn't recognise in my usual shop. Going to a shop in a different country - indeed, a country where a different language is spoken! - is brave indeed.
    Hair for me is not so much of an issue nowadays, sadly.
    Speaking of barbers, there seem to be a repeated claim in Reform type circles about Turkish barbers' shops and money laundering.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KSIKPMkKw2E?app=desktop

    It rather reminds me of the former claims by around nail bars.
    In every market town in the district, often several of them, rarely a customer, guy in a flash car turns up on occasion to get the takings or whatever.

    Places like Barbers that do smallish cash transactions in multiple are ideal for money laundering via fake customers.
This discussion has been closed.