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The power of imagery. – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,410

    Cookie said:

    geoffw said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Tidal power - works on 4 generating cycles a day - on incoming and outgoing tide twice a day. You only need an offset in tides between two locations of 3-4 hours to balance power generation. Cardiff and Colwyn Bay have been proposed for this reason.

    It was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, but not prominently. Pity MarqueeMark isn't here no to proselytise

    Swansea bay could have been up and running by now.

    Yes it was very expensive but most of that was the civil engineering works which would have lasted a century or more (far more if maintained well).
    My worry about tidal is wildlife: estuaries tend to be pretty valuable habitats. How do you not destroy that? How, for example, do you allow fish access/egress through a big dam you've put across the mouth of the estuary? Presumably it can be done?
    I understand but, I don't think we have a choice.

    If we are not to regress to the 19th Century or earlier, then with current scientific knowledge and technology we have to be destructive of some environments.

    No one ever wants it to be their local one though.

    Although things like migrating fish getting past a dam assume someone has come up with some solution. A chain of weirs bypassing the dam perhaps?
    Some of the designs are complete tidal ponds - as in a circular earth and rock dam. You build this on a suitable piece of tidal estuary.

    Because they don't block the estuary, and will be quickly colonised by birds etc, the impact on wildlife would probably be much lower.
    Problem is that even if Miliband decided to go for it, it would be about 12 years before the first one came online for both Process State reasons and finding sufficient trained people to build them in any quantity, by which time two general elections would have taken place and the overruning costs and delays (see process state) would result in all but the half built protoype being canned.
    I would hope they could build Swansea Bay, and that would be a very visual sign going into the next election.
    Build it illegally.

    I'm serious. Just get started.
    They could presumably use some of the resource that won't be building HS2.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.
    I would listen to you on this but a couple of days ago you said the shooting was comical and trivial and would all be forgotten in a week or two

    How’s that panning out?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 15

    Nunu5 said:

    I still don't understand the Labour fall of 29% in Leicester East. Ok, so this seat has a huge Hindu AND Muslim vote, but 29%!!

    Claudia Webbe
    Webbe and Vaz. They got nearly 20% between them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    Three of the CCS projects due to take Final Investment Decision in the next few months are new builds fuelled by natural gas - one CCGT and two blue hydrogen. They will lock in natural gas demand for decades. More, similar plants may follow.
    Now that is something that could be scrapped.
    You might think that.

    I couldn't possibly comment.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,410

    Cookie said:

    geoffw said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Tidal power - works on 4 generating cycles a day - on incoming and outgoing tide twice a day. You only need an offset in tides between two locations of 3-4 hours to balance power generation. Cardiff and Colwyn Bay have been proposed for this reason.

    It was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, but not prominently. Pity MarqueeMark isn't here no to proselytise

    Swansea bay could have been up and running by now.

    Yes it was very expensive but most of that was the civil engineering works which would have lasted a century or more (far more if maintained well).
    My worry about tidal is wildlife: estuaries tend to be pretty valuable habitats. How do you not destroy that? How, for example, do you allow fish access/egress through a big dam you've put across the mouth of the estuary? Presumably it can be done?
    I understand but, I don't think we have a choice.

    If we are not to regress to the 19th Century or earlier, then with current scientific knowledge and technology we have to be destructive of some environments.

    No one ever wants it to be their local one though.

    Although things like migrating fish getting past a dam assume someone has come up with some solution. A chain of weirs bypassing the dam perhaps?
    Some of the designs are complete tidal ponds - as in a circular earth and rock dam. You build this on a suitable piece of tidal estuary.

    Because they don't block the estuary, and will be quickly colonised by birds etc, the impact on wildlife would probably be much lower.
    Problem is that even if Miliband decided to go for it, it would be about 12 years before the first one came online for both Process State reasons and finding sufficient trained people to build them in any quantity, by which time two general elections would have taken place and the overruning costs and delays (see process state) would result in all but the half built protoype being canned.
    I would hope they could build Swansea Bay, and that would be a very visual sign going into the next election.
    Build it illegally.

    I'm serious. Just get started.
    I know you are, but that is anathema to SKS and the main three parties generally, as is doing it legally by axing the laws.

    Alas that is how the likes of Mussolini end up getting power and achieving a lot with huge popularity, at least at first before it all goes to their head and they go mad.
    I think I've missed something - Akaicr, the tidal project was shitcanned due to the May Government (read civil service) finding it wasn't value for money. Has it now been doubly banned for some other reason?
  • Cookie said:

    geoffw said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Tidal power - works on 4 generating cycles a day - on incoming and outgoing tide twice a day. You only need an offset in tides between two locations of 3-4 hours to balance power generation. Cardiff and Colwyn Bay have been proposed for this reason.

    It was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, but not prominently. Pity MarqueeMark isn't here no to proselytise

    Swansea bay could have been up and running by now.

    Yes it was very expensive but most of that was the civil engineering works which would have lasted a century or more (far more if maintained well).
    My worry about tidal is wildlife: estuaries tend to be pretty valuable habitats. How do you not destroy that? How, for example, do you allow fish access/egress through a big dam you've put across the mouth of the estuary? Presumably it can be done?
    I understand but, I don't think we have a choice.

    If we are not to regress to the 19th Century or earlier, then with current scientific knowledge and technology we have to be destructive of some environments.

    No one ever wants it to be their local one though.

    Although things like migrating fish getting past a dam assume someone has come up with some solution. A chain of weirs bypassing the dam perhaps?
    Some of the designs are complete tidal ponds - as in a circular earth and rock dam. You build this on a suitable piece of tidal estuary.

    Because they don't block the estuary, and will be quickly colonised by birds etc, the impact on wildlife would probably be much lower.
    Problem is that even if Miliband decided to go for it, it would be about 12 years before the first one came online for both Process State reasons and finding sufficient trained people to build them in any quantity, by which time two general elections would have taken place and the overruning costs and delays (see process state) would result in all but the half built protoype being canned.
    I would hope they could build Swansea Bay, and that would be a very visual sign going into the next election.
    Build it illegally.

    I'm serious. Just get started.
    I know you are, but that is anathema to SKS and the main three parties generally, as is doing it legally by axing the laws.

    Alas that is how the likes of Mussolini end up getting power and achieving a lot with huge popularity, at least at first before it all goes to their head and they go mad.
    I think I've missed something - Akaicr, the tidal project was shitcanned due to the May Government (read civil service) finding it wasn't value for money. Has it now been doubly banned for some other reason?
    The matter being discussed is that if it was reinstated tomorrow it likely wouldn't have had a sod turned by the next election due to all the impact assessments, consultations, public enquiries, judicial reviews and heaven knows else.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    edited July 15
    Andy_JS said:

    Nunu5 said:

    I still don't understand the Labour fall of 29% in Leicester East. Ok, so this seat has a huge Hindu AND Muslim vote, but 29%!!

    Claudia Webbe
    Webbe and Vaz. They got nearly 20% between them.
    Increase in the LD vote too, the only one of the 10 candidates who is Muslim.

    The Labour party in Leicester East is a nest of infighting too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,796
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need a month off the internet. Sit on a Polynesian island and do nothing but sleep and swim 'cos otherwise you'll be mad by 60.

    'The things you think about determine the quality of your mind. Your soul takes on the colour of your thoughts.'
    Bit late for me, also, I don’t care

    And I love mysteries, and this is a genuine mystery

    Right now I’m sticking with my Ukrainian connytheer. The Ukes hired a clean skin, probably using some beautiful girl to persuade, and they lied to him and said he’d survive and no one would shoot back
    Something similar involving the serbs (after their TV station got bombed by Nato) seems the most likely explanation as to Jill Dandos fate. (although a rather more experienced hitman both in accuracy and making an escape seems to have been used).

    That said, if it was them they would have been better off using someone who wasnt chucked out of the high school rifle club for being dangerously inaccurate.
    Trouble is they needed someone fairly dim to believe he wouldn’t end up dead
    And a damned good shot. In fact an incredible shot. Nah, even if he thought about it the risks are too great. He was an inch from death over about 120m.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    viewcode said:

    Do we know who trump veep is yet?

    J.D. Vance.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,290
    JD Vance is Trump’s VP
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.
    I would listen to you on this but a couple of days ago you said the shooting was comical and trivial and would all be forgotten in a week or two

    How’s that panning out?
    It hasn't been a week or two yet so let's wait and see.

    USA is running at 600 to 700 mass shootings per year at the moment (not that this even qualifies as a mass shooting) pretty much invariably carried out by oddball male teens or young men. I absolutely bet that this guy falls boringly bang in the middle of all metrics including internet use.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031

    viewcode said:

    Do we know who trump veep is yet?

    J.D. Vance.
    Bought and paid for by Peter Thiel.
    Who spent $15m on his Senate campaign.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    New plans for Leeds-Bradford tram system ... might actually even happen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg70kmylrxo.amp

    Perhaps most infamously, 'Supertram', put forward in the 1990s, was the next major scheme designed to better connect the city in the form of light rail. Originally backed by the New Labour government and due to start in 2004, spiralling costs too saw this project cancelled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_Supertram

    However, work to construct the system that was due to start in earnest in 2004 was suspended because of costs that were originally £500 million had risen far above this level to figures around £1 billion. This had resulted in a cut back to the system that would have seen Line 1 only go from the city centre to the park and ride site at Stourton and this would have saved £250 million from the construction of the scheme and efforts were made to lower development costs along the other planned routes. However despite this in late 2005, Transport Minister Alistair Darling said that he would not give the go-ahead for the scheme, despite £40 million having already been spent into the development of the scheme.

    So in twenty years predicted costs have gone from 500m to £1bn to £2.5bn for a much smaller system.
    A lesson there.
    If you don't build infrastructure projects when borrowing rates for government are 0.5%, then you're utterly stupid.

    That's not a party political point, as both Tory and Labour governments are to blame.

    Huge missed opportunities - tidal power being one.
    Borrowing rates don't stay at 0.5% forever as we've now discovered.

    I do have some sympathies with politicians over not investing in infrastructure as who wants to deal with the inevitable and endless costs increases and timescale overruns.

    Its easier to spend money on a pay rise or tax cut or an extra subsidy which has an immediate effect - its what the voters prefer after all.
    Cost increases and delays are not inevitable. Plenty of infrastructure projects are delivered on budget and time - it's just not newsworthy to say: "Project on time and budget!!!!"

    As an example, the £1.5 billion new A14 between the A1 and Cambridge was delivered on budget, and half a year early. The Borders Railway was also delivered on time and budget. There are many other examples.

    It's interesting to consider why some projects are delivered on time and budget, whilst others are not. I don't think it's a simple answer.

    (As ever, 'on budget' depends on how inflation was factored in as well.)
    I do wonder if there's a limit of sizes and types of infrastructure that this country is able to competently build.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866
    Evening all :)

    The first poll of the 2024-28 Parliament has been released from We Think - fieldwork 11th and 12th July.

    🔴Lab 39% (-2)
    🔵 Con 20% (-3)
    ⚪ Ref 16% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (NC)
    🟢 Green 9% (+2)
    🟡 SNP 2% (NC)

    The changes are against the last We Think poll from 2-3 July. Based on the actual GE numbers, it's Labour +5, Conservative -4, Reform +1, LD -1, Green +2

    I've not gone into detail but had these been the figures on July 4th, the Conservatives would have lost another 60 seats but all hypthetical in extremis at this stage.

    I'm frankly more interested in the two by-elections in Newham on Thursday.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    Three of the CCS projects due to take Final Investment Decision in the next few months are new builds fuelled by natural gas - one CCGT and two blue hydrogen. They will lock in natural gas demand for decades. More, similar plants may follow.
    Now that is something that could be scrapped.
    I know Sandy vociferously disagrees with me on this, but I see CCS as a dead-end technology, aside from very specific use cases where source and sink are fairly close. I'm even more bearish on it than I am on tidal lagoons.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,410

    Cookie said:

    geoffw said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Tidal power - works on 4 generating cycles a day - on incoming and outgoing tide twice a day. You only need an offset in tides between two locations of 3-4 hours to balance power generation. Cardiff and Colwyn Bay have been proposed for this reason.

    It was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, but not prominently. Pity MarqueeMark isn't here no to proselytise

    Swansea bay could have been up and running by now.

    Yes it was very expensive but most of that was the civil engineering works which would have lasted a century or more (far more if maintained well).
    My worry about tidal is wildlife: estuaries tend to be pretty valuable habitats. How do you not destroy that? How, for example, do you allow fish access/egress through a big dam you've put across the mouth of the estuary? Presumably it can be done?
    I understand but, I don't think we have a choice.

    If we are not to regress to the 19th Century or earlier, then with current scientific knowledge and technology we have to be destructive of some environments.

    No one ever wants it to be their local one though.

    Although things like migrating fish getting past a dam assume someone has come up with some solution. A chain of weirs bypassing the dam perhaps?
    Some of the designs are complete tidal ponds - as in a circular earth and rock dam. You build this on a suitable piece of tidal estuary.

    Because they don't block the estuary, and will be quickly colonised by birds etc, the impact on wildlife would probably be much lower.
    Problem is that even if Miliband decided to go for it, it would be about 12 years before the first one came online for both Process State reasons and finding sufficient trained people to build them in any quantity, by which time two general elections would have taken place and the overruning costs and delays (see process state) would result in all but the half built protoype being canned.
    I would hope they could build Swansea Bay, and that would be a very visual sign going into the next election.
    Build it illegally.

    I'm serious. Just get started.
    I know you are, but that is anathema to SKS and the main three parties generally, as is doing it legally by axing the laws.

    Alas that is how the likes of Mussolini end up getting power and achieving a lot with huge popularity, at least at first before it all goes to their head and they go mad.
    I think I've missed something - Akaicr, the tidal project was shitcanned due to the May Government (read civil service) finding it wasn't value for money. Has it now been doubly banned for some other reason?
    The matter being discussed is that if it was reinstated tomorrow it likely wouldn't have had a sod turned by the next election due to all the impact assessments, consultations, public enquiries, judicial reviews and heaven knows else.
    Ah OK. Ta.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need a month off the internet. Sit on a Polynesian island and do nothing but sleep and swim 'cos otherwise you'll be mad by 60.

    'The things you think about determine the quality of your mind. Your soul takes on the colour of your thoughts.'
    Bit late for me, also, I don’t care

    And I love mysteries, and this is a genuine mystery

    Right now I’m sticking with my Ukrainian connytheer. The Ukes hired a clean skin, probably using some beautiful girl to persuade, and they lied to him and said he’d survive and no one would shoot back
    Something similar involving the serbs (after their TV station got bombed by Nato) seems the most likely explanation as to Jill Dandos fate. (although a rather more experienced hitman both in accuracy and making an escape seems to have been used).

    That said, if it was them they would have been better off using someone who wasnt chucked out of the high school rifle club for being dangerously inaccurate.
    Trouble is they needed someone fairly dim to believe he wouldn’t end up dead
    And a damned good shot. In fact an incredible shot. Nah, even if he thought about it the risks are too great. He was an inch from death over about 120m.
    Not so. 100 to 140 yards is about the range at which a reasonably good shot shoots at a stag hoping to kill it with a heart shot (so target area about human head size). Rest rifle. Put cross hairs on target, laying off for wind as appropriate. Pull trigger. With a well set up rifle and telescopic sight it really is that easy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    JohnO said:

    JD Vance is Trump’s VP

    I wonder what he brings to the table, isn't he a Trump mini me?
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 15
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to "interesting"places politically speaking.

    Such are The Kings Men.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,115

    kinabalu said:

    It throttles the DEM's main line of attack - the warning that he's a threat to democracy and the constitution. This charge, although entirely justified, can now be painted as a demonisation exercise that has led to him almost being murdered.

    The problem is trying to have it both ways, as you are doing here.

    If he's an American Hitler then why is assassination a step too far? They can't distance themselves from their own rhetoric without revealing that they don't really believe it and never have done.
    Two things I can think of.

    One is that, at the moment, there is still the oppotunity to stop Trump by democratic means, and that is definitely better.

    The other is that labelling Trump as an American Hitler is to miss the point. I doubt that Trump has much of a plan beyond saying "I'm the WINNER" for the next four years. Big chair in the big office. What should worry anyone concerned with democracy is the Project 2025 types who are using him as a figurehead. Last time they stuffed the Supreme Court, and I don't think anyone is denying the P2025 ambitions for another Trump term.

    Which makes DJT not so much an American Hitler as an American Quisling.
    I'm reflecting that in some respects it may make him the American Kaiser Bill, not paying attention to anything outside his personal predilections, prejudices and knee jerks, and leaving others to run the country.

    We had this in Trump's first term, where they reduced his daily briefings because he wasn't bothered to be interested.

    The 45th president’s chaotic and freewheeling style, and his disinclination to read anything put in front of him, resulted in the presidential daily briefing, or PDB – a crucial security update including information about potential threats to the US – being delivered more regularly to Vice-President Mike Pence instead, the report states.

    By the middle of Trump’s term in office, his briefings were reduced to two weekly sessions of 45 minutes each. Briefings were discontinued altogether after the deadly insurrection of 6 January, which was sparked by Trump urging his supporters to march on the US Capitol in a failed attempt to overturn his defeat by Joe Biden.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/29/donald-trump-fact-free-presidential-briefings-cia-report

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The first poll of the 2024-28 Parliament has been released from We Think - fieldwork 11th and 12th July.

    🔴Lab 39% (-2)
    🔵 Con 20% (-3)
    ⚪ Ref 16% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (NC)
    🟢 Green 9% (+2)
    🟡 SNP 2% (NC)

    The changes are against the last We Think poll from 2-3 July. Based on the actual GE numbers, it's Labour +5, Conservative -4, Reform +1, LD -1, Green +2

    I've not gone into detail but had these been the figures on July 4th, the Conservatives would have lost another 60 seats but all hypthetical in extremis at this stage.

    I'm frankly more interested in the two by-elections in Newham on Thursday.

    They're not accurately picking up independent votes, it seems.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    JD Vance is Trump’s VP

    I wonder what he brings to the table, isn't he a Trump mini me?
    A beautiful instance of answering ones own question.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    JD Vance is Trump’s VP

    I wonder what he brings to the table, isn't he a Trump mini me?
    Rust belt working class.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    New plans for Leeds-Bradford tram system ... might actually even happen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg70kmylrxo.amp

    Perhaps most infamously, 'Supertram', put forward in the 1990s, was the next major scheme designed to better connect the city in the form of light rail. Originally backed by the New Labour government and due to start in 2004, spiralling costs too saw this project cancelled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_Supertram

    However, work to construct the system that was due to start in earnest in 2004 was suspended because of costs that were originally £500 million had risen far above this level to figures around £1 billion. This had resulted in a cut back to the system that would have seen Line 1 only go from the city centre to the park and ride site at Stourton and this would have saved £250 million from the construction of the scheme and efforts were made to lower development costs along the other planned routes. However despite this in late 2005, Transport Minister Alistair Darling said that he would not give the go-ahead for the scheme, despite £40 million having already been spent into the development of the scheme.

    So in twenty years predicted costs have gone from 500m to £1bn to £2.5bn for a much smaller system.
    A lesson there.
    If you don't build infrastructure projects when borrowing rates for government are 0.5%, then you're utterly stupid.

    That's not a party political point, as both Tory and Labour governments are to blame.

    Huge missed opportunities - tidal power being one.
    Borrowing rates don't stay at 0.5% forever as we've now discovered.

    I do have some sympathies with politicians over not investing in infrastructure as who wants to deal with the inevitable and endless costs increases and timescale overruns.

    Its easier to spend money on a pay rise or tax cut or an extra subsidy which has an immediate effect - its what the voters prefer after all.
    Cost increases and delays are not inevitable. Plenty of infrastructure projects are delivered on budget and time - it's just not newsworthy to say: "Project on time and budget!!!!"

    As an example, the £1.5 billion new A14 between the A1 and Cambridge was delivered on budget, and half a year early. The Borders Railway was also delivered on time and budget. There are many other examples.

    It's interesting to consider why some projects are delivered on time and budget, whilst others are not. I don't think it's a simple answer.

    (As ever, 'on budget' depends on how inflation was factored in as well.)
    I do wonder if there's a limit of sizes and types of infrastructure that this country is able to competently build.
    I doubt it's the *size*, per se. The new A14 was hardly a small project.

    IMV much is down to specification and the way the project is set up. Small decisions at the start (e.g. where risk lies) can really affect the final cost. And high-profile projects probably attract civil servants and politicians who don't know what they're doing, and who then put their oars in.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    I think from a quick squint at the National Grid report most of this gas demand comes from domestic and industrial boilers. Clearly most of those boilers won't be replaced in the next five years.
    Thanks

    1) If they therefore think very little Gas will be used to generate electricity by then they are in la la land.

    2) There will be plenty of older gas boilers getting replaced in the next five years with new gas ones, despite the "boiler tax", the fining of boiler manufacturers for not selling enough heat pumps which said manufacturers have just said tbey will add to boiler costs (delayed by a year to April 2025 and in Milibands in tray)
    On your point 1 I think the the key thing is relatively little gas is used for electricity generation now compared with the requirement for heating, cooking and industrial uses because electricity is a relatively small part of our overall energy mix. As we electrify, the amount of gas required in generation will increase but not as much as direct use of gas and other fossil fuels decreases. The use of gas in electricity generation can also be mitigated. The best way to reduce fossil fuel demand is to electrify. I suppose the National Grid would say that.

    It's a long and not very straightforward report.



    https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios-fes
  • MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    It throttles the DEM's main line of attack - the warning that he's a threat to democracy and the constitution. This charge, although entirely justified, can now be painted as a demonisation exercise that has led to him almost being murdered.

    The problem is trying to have it both ways, as you are doing here.

    If he's an American Hitler then why is assassination a step too far? They can't distance themselves from their own rhetoric without revealing that they don't really believe it and never have done.
    Two things I can think of.

    One is that, at the moment, there is still the oppotunity to stop Trump by democratic means, and that is definitely better.

    The other is that labelling Trump as an American Hitler is to miss the point. I doubt that Trump has much of a plan beyond saying "I'm the WINNER" for the next four years. Big chair in the big office. What should worry anyone concerned with democracy is the Project 2025 types who are using him as a figurehead. Last time they stuffed the Supreme Court, and I don't think anyone is denying the P2025 ambitions for another Trump term.

    Which makes DJT not so much an American Hitler as an American Quisling.
    I'm reflecting that in some respects it may make him the American Kaiser Bill, not paying attention to anything outside his personal predilections, prejudices and knee jerks, and leaving others to run the country.

    We had this in Trump's first term, where they reduced his daily briefings because he wasn't bothered to be interested.

    The 45th president’s chaotic and freewheeling style, and his disinclination to read anything put in front of him, resulted in the presidential daily briefing, or PDB – a crucial security update including information about potential threats to the US – being delivered more regularly to Vice-President Mike Pence instead, the report states.

    By the middle of Trump’s term in office, his briefings were reduced to two weekly sessions of 45 minutes each. Briefings were discontinued altogether after the deadly insurrection of 6 January, which was sparked by Trump urging his supporters to march on the US Capitol in a failed attempt to overturn his defeat by Joe Biden.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/29/donald-trump-fact-free-presidential-briefings-cia-report

    Kaiser Bill isn't a bad comparison.

    Fortunately the US president has to work with a parliament that has real powers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kle4 said:

    JohnO said:

    JD Vance is Trump’s VP

    I wonder what he brings to the table, isn't he a Trump mini me?
    A beautiful instance of answering ones own question.
    Sure, but they are all trying to be like Trump to some degree, I'm sure he likes that, what extra does he bring though? another_richard suggests rust belt working class.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.
    I would listen to you on this but a couple of days ago you said the shooting was comical and trivial and would all be forgotten in a week or two

    How’s that panning out?
    It hasn't been a week or two yet so let's wait and see.

    USA is running at 600 to 700 mass shootings per year at the moment (not that this even qualifies as a mass shooting) pretty much invariably carried out by oddball male teens or young men. I absolutely bet that this guy falls boringly bang in the middle of all metrics including internet use.
    Maybe. That is certainly possible

    What is not possible is that this is some "comic. trivial" event which means nothing and will be forgotten in a fortnight. This is pivotal
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Never bet on Scandinavian football matches. Every time I have, I've lost.

    Leagues are very tight. Top team does well to win 20 games in a 30 game season in Sweden/Norway and even in 32 game Denmark.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to "interesting"places politically speaking.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    That’s more like it. Though what you are open minded about is a pretty horrific allegation, in a context which was very far from exceptional circumstances.

    @Leon isn’t a spy.
  • kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
    A lot of our government are incompetent fuckwits. But there are areas of excellence. For example, organisation of big showpieces like the Coronation. Our security services are also pretty good (without being highly visible and trigger happy like the US ones for example). All to often though this is despite the "system" not because of it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    I think from a quick squint at the National Grid report most of this gas demand comes from domestic and industrial boilers. Clearly most of those boilers won't be replaced in the next five years.
    Thanks

    1) If they therefore think very little Gas will be used to generate electricity by then they are in la la land.

    2) There will be plenty of older gas boilers getting replaced in the next five years with new gas ones, despite the "boiler tax", the fining of boiler manufacturers for not selling enough heat pumps which said manufacturers have just said tbey will add to boiler costs (delayed by a year to April 2025 and in Milibands in tray)
    On your point 1 I think the the key thing is relatively little gas is used for electricity generation now compared with the requirement for heating, cooking and industrial uses because electricity is a relatively small part of our overall energy mix. As we electrify, the amount of gas required in generation will increase but not as much as direct use of gas and other fossil fuels decreases. The use of gas in electricity generation can also be mitigated. The best way to reduce fossil fuel demand is to electrify. I suppose the National Grid would say that.

    It's a long and not very straightforward report.



    https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios-fes
    " I suppose the National Grid would say that."

    Aren't National Grid responsible for gas distribution as well? ISTR that's the case, but might be wrong.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The first poll of the 2024-28 Parliament has been released from We Think - fieldwork 11th and 12th July.

    🔴Lab 39% (-2)
    🔵 Con 20% (-3)
    ⚪ Ref 16% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (NC)
    🟢 Green 9% (+2)
    🟡 SNP 2% (NC)

    The changes are against the last We Think poll from 2-3 July. Based on the actual GE numbers, it's Labour +5, Conservative -4, Reform +1, LD -1, Green +2

    I've not gone into detail but had these been the figures on July 4th, the Conservatives would have lost another 60 seats but all hypthetical in extremis at this stage.

    I'm frankly more interested in the two by-elections in Newham on Thursday.

    Disappointing poll. I was expecting a Lib Dem bounce after the election result and Davey going into positive approval territory.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,197
    a
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
    A minor classic of this genre is the Bullingdon Club. A bunch of drunk teenagers who smash up restaurants. Then cover it up so well that journalists offering £30k couldn't find anyone who'd seen anything.

    The alternative theory is that they threw some bread rolls and exaggerated stories got made up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031

    Just got a call.

    I am *not* - repeat *not* - Trump's running mate.

    Must be a great disappointment ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    edited July 15

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    I think from a quick squint at the National Grid report most of this gas demand comes from domestic and industrial boilers. Clearly most of those boilers won't be replaced in the next five years.
    Thanks

    1) If they therefore think very little Gas will be used to generate electricity by then they are in la la land.

    2) There will be plenty of older gas boilers getting replaced in the next five years with new gas ones, despite the "boiler tax", the fining of boiler manufacturers for not selling enough heat pumps which said manufacturers have just said tbey will add to boiler costs (delayed by a year to April 2025 and in Milibands in tray)
    On your point 1 I think the the key thing is relatively little gas is used for electricity generation now compared with the requirement for heating, cooking and industrial uses because electricity is a relatively small part of our overall energy mix. As we electrify, the amount of gas required in generation will increase but not as much as direct use of gas and other fossil fuels decreases. The use of gas in electricity generation can also be mitigated. The best way to reduce fossil fuel demand is to electrify. I suppose the National Grid would say that.

    It's a long and not very straightforward report.



    https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios-fes
    " I suppose the National Grid would say that."

    Aren't National Grid responsible for gas distribution as well? ISTR that's the case, but might be wrong.
    That’s centrica

    And electricity “distribution” ie the final mile to customers is UKPN
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    We've probably crossed over
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866
    Andy_JS said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The first poll of the 2024-28 Parliament has been released from We Think - fieldwork 11th and 12th July.

    🔴Lab 39% (-2)
    🔵 Con 20% (-3)
    ⚪ Ref 16% (+1)
    🟠 LD 11% (NC)
    🟢 Green 9% (+2)
    🟡 SNP 2% (NC)

    The changes are against the last We Think poll from 2-3 July. Based on the actual GE numbers, it's Labour +5, Conservative -4, Reform +1, LD -1, Green +2

    I've not gone into detail but had these been the figures on July 4th, the Conservatives would have lost another 60 seats but all hypthetical in extremis at this stage.

    I'm frankly more interested in the two by-elections in Newham on Thursday.

    They're not accurately picking up independent votes, it seems.
    It's a difficult one obviously given we're barely eleven days on from an election. I have no clue what salience the pro-Palestine Independents are going to have at the next election. I've commented on the history of the Newham Independents - they are essentially ex-Momentum booted from the local Labour Party. They helped current Newham Mayor Rokhsana Fiaz defeat Sir Robin Wales in the Labour selection contest in 2018 but Fiaz turned on them with the coming of Starmer and got them expelled from the CLP.

    Their response was to form a new group but their success against Labour in Newham was limited until the Hamas attack. From there, Newham Indpendents quickly gathered support from the Muslim community and have become much stronger attacking both the Council (with justification) over the provision of Services and Labour in general over Gaza. Their candidates got around 20% in the GE in East Ham and West Ham & Beckton and they've won two by-elections and attracted a third councillor by defection.
  • a

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
    A minor classic of this genre is the Bullingdon Club. A bunch of drunk teenagers who smash up restaurants. Then cover it up so well that journalists offering £30k couldn't find anyone who'd seen anything.

    The alternative theory is that they threw some bread rolls and exaggerated stories got made up.
    There were packed out pubs in Belfast where someone got shot and no one saw it as everyone was at the loo at the time (despite it only having two traps and one urinal)....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to "interesting"places politically speaking.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    That’s more like it. Though what you are open minded about is a pretty horrific allegation, in a context which was very far from exceptional circumstances.

    @Leon isn’t a spy.
    That will come as news to my REDACTED
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,115
    edited July 15

    Nigelb said:

    New plans for Leeds-Bradford tram system ... might actually even happen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg70kmylrxo.amp

    Perhaps most infamously, 'Supertram', put forward in the 1990s, was the next major scheme designed to better connect the city in the form of light rail. Originally backed by the New Labour government and due to start in 2004, spiralling costs too saw this project cancelled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_Supertram

    However, work to construct the system that was due to start in earnest in 2004 was suspended because of costs that were originally £500 million had risen far above this level to figures around £1 billion. This had resulted in a cut back to the system that would have seen Line 1 only go from the city centre to the park and ride site at Stourton and this would have saved £250 million from the construction of the scheme and efforts were made to lower development costs along the other planned routes. However despite this in late 2005, Transport Minister Alistair Darling said that he would not give the go-ahead for the scheme, despite £40 million having already been spent into the development of the scheme.

    So in twenty years predicted costs have gone from 500m to £1bn to £2.5bn for a much smaller system.
    £2.5bn is 1/3 less than the £3.7bn budget to dual the A9 from Perth to Inverness, which is a distance of only 83 miles.

    https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/a9-dualling-perth-to-inverness/
    .
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to "interesting"places politically speaking.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    That’s more like it. Though what you are open minded about is a pretty horrific allegation, in a context which was very far from exceptional circumstances.

    @Leon isn’t a spy.
    That will come as news to my REDACTED
    To your AI?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031
    So Trump picks the guy who yesterday blamed Biden, in plain terms, for the assassination attempt.

    A unifying choice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Trump seems to be doing well at his convention, all of the delegates pledged so far!
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to "interesting"places politically speaking.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    That’s more like it. Though what you are open minded about is a pretty horrific allegation, in a context which was very far from exceptional circumstances.

    @Leon isn’t a spy.
    It's the wee dog isn't it
  • TimS said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    "Britain will remain dependent on gas for years, warns National Grid
    New forecasts predict higher than expected demand in 2030 in blow to Starmer’s green energy ambitions

    By
    Matt Oliver
    INDUSTRY EDITOR

    Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions, National Grid has said.

    Demand for gas is now expected to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).

    That is at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.

    The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours....."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/15/britain-will-remain-dependent-gas-years-national-grid/

    I think from a quick squint at the National Grid report most of this gas demand comes from domestic and industrial boilers. Clearly most of those boilers won't be replaced in the next five years.
    Thanks

    1) If they therefore think very little Gas will be used to generate electricity by then they are in la la land.

    2) There will be plenty of older gas boilers getting replaced in the next five years with new gas ones, despite the "boiler tax", the fining of boiler manufacturers for not selling enough heat pumps which said manufacturers have just said tbey will add to boiler costs (delayed by a year to April 2025 and in Milibands in tray)
    On your point 1 I think the the key thing is relatively little gas is used for electricity generation now compared with the requirement for heating, cooking and industrial uses because electricity is a relatively small part of our overall energy mix. As we electrify, the amount of gas required in generation will increase but not as much as direct use of gas and other fossil fuels decreases. The use of gas in electricity generation can also be mitigated. The best way to reduce fossil fuel demand is to electrify. I suppose the National Grid would say that.

    It's a long and not very straightforward report.



    https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios-fes
    " I suppose the National Grid would say that."

    Aren't National Grid responsible for gas distribution as well? ISTR that's the case, but might be wrong.
    That’s centrica

    And electricity “distribution” ie the final mile to customers is UKPN
    And that (old and venerable in many cases) last mile and its current carrying capacity (if everyone switches to electric heating and car charging) is the biggest headache of all.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,115
    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,578
    Nigelb said:

    So Trump picks the guy who yesterday blamed Biden, in plain terms, for the assassination attempt.

    A unifying choice.

    He's sewn up the coveted hillbilly vote.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,812
    The Vance pick is aimed squarely at the rust belt voters.

    That said, didn’t he underperform in his Senate run? Ohio is reliably Republican nowadays but he was run relatively close.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
    A lot of our government are incompetent fuckwits. But there are areas of excellence. For example, organisation of big showpieces like the Coronation. Our security services are also pretty good (without being highly visible and trigger happy like the US ones for example). All to often though this is despite the "system" not because of it.
    despite the "system" not because of it

    Could describe so much of modern Britain.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    Just incompetence and they have not found his chosen internet medium. He was wearing a T shirt of a YouTube channel dedicated to massyshoots, I expect he commented there 24.7.
    I would listen to you on this but a couple of days ago you said the shooting was comical and trivial and would all be forgotten in a week or two

    How’s that panning out?
    It hasn't been a week or two yet so let's wait and see.

    USA is running at 600 to 700 mass shootings per year at the moment (not that this even qualifies as a mass shooting) pretty much invariably carried out by oddball male teens or young men. I absolutely bet that this guy falls boringly bang in the middle of all metrics including internet use.
    Maybe. That is certainly possible

    What is not possible is that this is some "comic. trivial" event which means nothing and will be forgotten in a fortnight. This is pivotal
    Naah It's not a nothingburger but it is a notverymuchburger with very small fries, to go. You understandably want to have a ringside seat at a Pivotal Point in History but look: apart from the obvious point that Mr Trump, you are no JFK or MLK, back in those days they didn't have mass shootings. Now they have a lot more gun deaths than car deaths. Do you know UK people who have died of cars? I do. Americans know people who have died of guns. It's like assimilating sleepy Joe to ones own senile dad. Commonplace.

    Bonus fact, he is going to be tying himself in knots over gun control and end up looking an arse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,197

    a

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    A bit like the person who emerged from obscurity and shot the MP, seemingly acting alone, a few days before the referendum.
    So do you believe Jo Cox was murdered in a false flag operation orchestrated by the remain campaign?

    Or are you just making insinuations you don’t actually believe, in order to look edgy?
    Dr Kellys ghost says hello.
    Do you do believe Jo Cox was killed in a false flag operation, or not? Just say it.

    I can’t be doing with the ever so achingly arch insinuation game that involves never actually declaring what one thinks, but instead sticks to a nudge and a wink. There are already two posters on this site who prefer the insinuation or sardonic aside to the plainly stated belief, we don’t need another.
    I have an open mind on it. Our lot do certainly do Putinesque things exceptionally rarely but I wouldn't put it past them in exceptional situations.

    Generally they are much cleverer than most countries spooks outfits and operate in the background unseen.

    In fact I wouldn't be surprised if someone posting here was from M15 or 6. Probably who you would least expect.

    Someone who somehow never goes quite far enough to get permanently banned but will be able to flush out interesting views from others. Maybe someone who travels a lot for their work, including to interesting places.

    Such are The Kings Men.
    It is accepted as a truism by some people that government and associated services and agents are entirely incompetent, except in extremely unlikely scenarios, in which circumstances they transform into the most amazingly competent people on the planet, and expert at covering up their tracks too (the lack of proof thereby proving how good they are), apart from counter-intuitively very obvious clues that anyone can spoit.
    A minor classic of this genre is the Bullingdon Club. A bunch of drunk teenagers who smash up restaurants. Then cover it up so well that journalists offering £30k couldn't find anyone who'd seen anything.

    The alternative theory is that they threw some bread rolls and exaggerated stories got made up.
    There were packed out pubs in Belfast where someone got shot and no one saw it as everyone was at the loo at the time (despite it only having two traps and one urinal)....
    Including the women in the mens bog.

    The PIRA are somewhat better at this kind of thing - and everyone knows who killed him. The Peace Process is sacred....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

    I'd strongly argue that a case like this that did not have any 'curious anomalies' would be much more likely to be a planned conspiracy. Real life is messy, and throws up curiosities.

    Take the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; who would believe his driver would drive past, stop and then stall, very near to the man who attempted, and failed, an earlier assassination? Yet that appears to be exactly what happened. It is slightly less coincidental when you consider that half of Bosnia wanted to kill him...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031
    edited July 15

    Nigelb said:

    So Trump picks the guy who yesterday blamed Biden, in plain terms, for the assassination attempt.

    A unifying choice.

    He's sewn up the coveted hillbilly vote.
    Note for Leon - he once speculated Trump might be “America’s Hitler”.
    Is he to blame for the assassination attempt ?
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jd-vance-once-compared-trump-hitler-now-they-are-running-mates-2024-07-15/
  • MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    New plans for Leeds-Bradford tram system ... might actually even happen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg70kmylrxo.amp

    Perhaps most infamously, 'Supertram', put forward in the 1990s, was the next major scheme designed to better connect the city in the form of light rail. Originally backed by the New Labour government and due to start in 2004, spiralling costs too saw this project cancelled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_Supertram

    However, work to construct the system that was due to start in earnest in 2004 was suspended because of costs that were originally £500 million had risen far above this level to figures around £1 billion. This had resulted in a cut back to the system that would have seen Line 1 only go from the city centre to the park and ride site at Stourton and this would have saved £250 million from the construction of the scheme and efforts were made to lower development costs along the other planned routes. However despite this in late 2005, Transport Minister Alistair Darling said that he would not give the go-ahead for the scheme, despite £40 million having already been spent into the development of the scheme.

    So in twenty years predicted costs have gone from 500m to £1bn to £2.5bn for a much smaller system.
    £2.5bn is 1/3 less than the £3.7bn budget to dual the A9 from Perth to Inverness, which is a distance of only 83 miles.

    https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/a9-dualling-perth-to-inverness/
    .
    The entire M25 cost £1 billion in ~1985 prices at the time the last bit opened. That is £3 billion at todays prices.

    Noting that about a third of those 83 miles between Perth and Inverness are already dual carriageway.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    Cookie said:

    geoffw said:

    Penddu2 said:

    Tidal power - works on 4 generating cycles a day - on incoming and outgoing tide twice a day. You only need an offset in tides between two locations of 3-4 hours to balance power generation. Cardiff and Colwyn Bay have been proposed for this reason.

    It was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, but not prominently. Pity MarqueeMark isn't here no to proselytise

    Swansea bay could have been up and running by now.

    Yes it was very expensive but most of that was the civil engineering works which would have lasted a century or more (far more if maintained well).
    My worry about tidal is wildlife: estuaries tend to be pretty valuable habitats. How do you not destroy that? How, for example, do you allow fish access/egress through a big dam you've put across the mouth of the estuary? Presumably it can be done?
    I understand but, I don't think we have a choice.

    If we are not to regress to the 19th Century or earlier, then with current scientific knowledge and technology we have to be destructive of some environments.

    No one ever wants it to be their local one though.

    Although things like migrating fish getting past a dam assume someone has come up with some solution. A chain of weirs bypassing the dam perhaps?
    Some of the designs are complete tidal ponds - as in a circular earth and rock dam. You build this on a suitable piece of tidal estuary.

    Because they don't block the estuary, and will be quickly colonised by birds etc, the impact on wildlife would probably be much lower.
    Problem is that even if Miliband decided to go for it, it would be about 12 years before the first one came online for both Process State reasons and finding sufficient trained people to build them in any quantity, by which time two general elections would have taken place and the overruning costs and delays (see process state) would result in all but the half built protoype being canned.
    I would hope they could build Swansea Bay, and that would be a very visual sign going into the next election.
    Build it illegally.

    I'm serious. Just get started.
    The likelihood of Starmer going against the lawyer-activist complex seemed minimal.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    edited July 15
    fecked this up
  • MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Brunel with a teapot?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,115

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Great essay.

    What is the purpose of liberalism?
    Why we oppose political violence
    https://www.infinitescroll.us/p/what-is-the-purpose-of-liberalism

    "Hundreds of years ago, pre-Enlightenment, Europeans discovered that they didn’t really agree on the nature of Christianity. Some were Catholic and followed the pope. Others were defecting to newer, hipper versions of Protestantism. Their solution to this problem was to murder each other."
    "Catholics and Protestants still didn’t like each other much, and often tried to harass or discriminate against each other. Over time, liberalism developed norms to prevent that as well - political freedoms, tolerance, equal treatment before the law, basic human rights, etc."

    But alas it didn't work in NornIron....
    NI was removed from the rest of Ireland by national strife - the religious angle being the preferred line when writing it off as a mere civil war.
    Preferred by just about everybody.

    Mind you, Orange Parades are now much more entertaining featuring scantily clad marchers flashing their boobs.

    (nb not wholly suitable for work but pixellated)


    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/video-news/watch-woman-flashes-shocked-onlookers-during-belfast-twelfth-parade/a1753311424.html
    The Belfast Telegraph has had a "women going out" and "teenage men trying to look more than 20 by wearing a goaty beard" section for a very long time, with scores of photos.

    It seems tamer than it was, but putting photos of 100s of clubbers on your newspaper website is one way to get them to visit it briefly.

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/galleries/belfast-nightlife-dsqo-at-filthy-mcnastys-january-16-2020-photos/38877718.html

  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Leon is Jerry Sadowitz?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,009
    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Llandudno Promenade
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    So in the end Trump goes with the MAGA choice, JD Vance as his VP nominee. Should at least secure Ohio for him
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    theProle said:

    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Don't worry, because there is about 1.2 immigrants coming for every birth to more than make up the numbers.

    I type this from the maternity unit, where Mrs Prole produced Prole Jr on Sunday afternoon, so I've been doing my bit for the numbers anyway! The bizarre mix of the excellent and the terrible which has been our experience of the NHS over the last couple of days is probably worth a post of its own - I may type it at some point.
    Fabulous. Prole by name, prole by nature. (That is an etymological joke btw).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,410
    Pulpstar said:

    theProle said:

    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Don't worry, because there is about 1.2 immigrants coming for every birth to more than make up the numbers.

    I type this from the maternity unit, where Mrs Prole produced Prole Jr on Sunday afternoon, so I've been doing my bit for the numbers anyway! The bizarre mix of the excellent and the terrible which has been our experience of the NHS over the last couple of days is probably worth a post of its own - I may type it at some point.
    A warm congratulations to you and Mrs Prole :)
    Congratulations!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Meanwhile Farage and Truss will attend this week's Republican convention
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/nigel-farage-liz-truss-republican-national-convention
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    theProle said:

    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Don't worry, because there is about 1.2 immigrants coming for every birth to more than make up the numbers.

    I type this from the maternity unit, where Mrs Prole produced Prole Jr on Sunday afternoon, so I've been doing my bit for the numbers anyway! The bizarre mix of the excellent and the terrible which has been our experience of the NHS over the last couple of days is probably worth a post of its own - I may type it at some point.
    Congratulations to you and your family.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Llandudno?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354

    The Vance pick is aimed squarely at the rust belt voters.

    That said, didn’t he underperform in his Senate run? Ohio is reliably Republican nowadays but he was run relatively close.

    See the film
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Poor boy made good, single drug addicted mother.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    HYUFD said:
    I wonder if Liz will manage to find her way there from the hotel. Hopefully she has her carers with her.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866

    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Llandudno Promenade
    The week before last, Mrs Stodge and I were on the Isle of Man and we stayed in Douglas and the promenade there isn't unlike the onein Llandudno, I'm told.

    The statue on the Douglas promenade is of course the Bee Gees - I was reminded of the age old maxim "whether you're a mother or whether you're a brother, you're stayin' alive, stayin' alive".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    HYUFD said:
    Nigel soon ditched rainy Clacton didn't he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 15

    On the power of imagery theme a caption comp, though hard to beat the original one.



    https://x.com/seannhickey/status/1812824488272150688

    Billy Bawheid has the unfortunate trait of looking violently agressive at inopportune moments. I'm sure that's not the real Wills of course.

    Say what you like about the Prince of Wales, he has Alpha male energy neither his father nor the PM have
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    HYUFD said:

    So in the end Trump goes with the MAGA choice, JD Vance as his VP nominee. Should at least secure Ohio for him

    Is it as simple as this?

    There is no situation in which Vance will stand up to Trump, however bad the constitutional outrage.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1812935076285718865

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 15
    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Amazing to think that Germany reached this point in 1972. They've had more deaths than births every year since then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    edited July 15

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

    I'd strongly argue that a case like this that did not have any 'curious anomalies' would be much more likely to be a planned conspiracy. Real life is messy, and throws up curiosities.

    Take the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; who would believe his driver would drive past, stop and then stall, very near to the man who attempted, and failed, an earlier assassination? Yet that appears to be exactly what happened. It is slightly less coincidental when you consider that half of Bosnia wanted to kill him...
    Sincere question

    What do you think about Epstein? Taking into account all the fantastically weird coincidences - the wiped/defunct cameras, the sleeping guards. He was literally on suicide watch in one of America's most high profile jails, it was something that supposedly could never happen to the most important prisoner in the USA

    My guess is this: he was TOLD to commit suicide, and he was told: we shall give you a window of opportunity to do it, and a means, and during that window the cameras will not be working, and the guards will be "sleeping", and he was told the alternative was people he loved suffering very badly

    So he did it. Thus it was a coercive suicide, which is close to murder
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160

    HYUFD said:

    So in the end Trump goes with the MAGA choice, JD Vance as his VP nominee. Should at least secure Ohio for him

    Is it as simple as this?

    There is no situation in which Vance will stand up to Trump, however bad the constitutional outrage.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1812935076285718865

    Going off of clips on him on twitter seems he would enjoy being a dictator's lackey
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    On the power of imagery theme a caption comp, though hard to beat the original one.



    https://x.com/seannhickey/status/1812824488272150688

    Billy Bawheid has the unfortunate trait of looking violently agressive at inopportune moments. I'm sure that's not the real Wills of course.

    Say what you like about the Prince of Wales, he has Alpha male energy neither his father nor the PM have
    Let me explain the picture to you: someone with zero sense of humour but who doesn't realise that, telling a "funny" story, and he hasn't got to the punch line yet. Sometimes called prince Philip syndrome in the older literature.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    theProle said:

    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Don't worry, because there is about 1.2 immigrants coming for every birth to more than make up the numbers.

    I type this from the maternity unit, where Mrs Prole produced Prole Jr on Sunday afternoon, so I've been doing my bit for the numbers anyway! The bizarre mix of the excellent and the terrible which has been our experience of the NHS over the last couple of days is probably worth a post of its own - I may type it at some point.
    Bravo!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059

    HYUFD said:

    So in the end Trump goes with the MAGA choice, JD Vance as his VP nominee. Should at least secure Ohio for him

    Is it as simple as this?

    There is no situation in which Vance will stand up to Trump, however bad the constitutional outrage.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1812935076285718865

    Wasn't the point of Succession that Wambsgasm got the job because he was willing to say "yes" to anything the new owner said?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    ONS estimates in 2023 in England and Wales:
    - 598,000 deaths
    - 598,400 births

    One trending up and the other trending down, so we'll most likely hit crossover next year.

    Amazing to think that Germany reached this point in 1972. They've had more deaths than births every year since then.
    They probably had more deaths than births in 1942, 1943, 1944 and 1945 too.


    Too soon?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

    I'd strongly argue that a case like this that did not have any 'curious anomalies' would be much more likely to be a planned conspiracy. Real life is messy, and throws up curiosities.

    Take the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; who would believe his driver would drive past, stop and then stall, very near to the man who attempted, and failed, an earlier assassination? Yet that appears to be exactly what happened. It is slightly less coincidental when you consider that half of Bosnia wanted to kill him...
    Sincere question

    What do you think about Epstein? Taking into account all the fantastically weird coincidences - the wiped/defunct cameras, the sleeping guards. He was literally on suicide watch in one of America's most high profile jails, it was something that supposedly could never happen to the most important prisoner in the USA

    My guess is this: he was TOLD to commit suicide, and he was told: we shall give you a window of opportunity to do it, and a means, and during that window the cameras will not be working, and the guards will be "sleeping", and he was told the alternative was people he loved suffering very badly

    So he did it. Thus it was a coercive suicide, which is close to murder
    The Rommel approach?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The Vance pick is aimed squarely at the rust belt voters.

    That said, didn’t he underperform in his Senate run? Ohio is reliably Republican nowadays but he was run relatively close.

    See the film
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Poor boy made good, single drug addicted mother.
    It's a pretty good book. Trump may have picked the first VP or POTUS candidate who is a genuinely good writer, in..... many decades? Was JFK any good? He wrote Profiles in Courage, but I've no idea if it is any good (but JFK was properly smart and brave and absurdly sexual, he'd have understood my "socks" dilemma)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,009
    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Llandudno Promenade
    The week before last, Mrs Stodge and I were on the Isle of Man and we stayed in Douglas and the promenade there isn't unlike the onein Llandudno, I'm told.

    The statue on the Douglas promenade is of course the Bee Gees - I was reminded of the age old maxim "whether you're a mother or whether you're a brother, you're stayin' alive, stayin' alive".
    Last year we visited the Isle of Man and stayed in a hotel on the promenade which does have similarities to Llandudno though Llandudno is more Victorian and longer

    The characters are from Alice in Wonderland and dotted around the town
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

    I'd strongly argue that a case like this that did not have any 'curious anomalies' would be much more likely to be a planned conspiracy. Real life is messy, and throws up curiosities.

    Take the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; who would believe his driver would drive past, stop and then stall, very near to the man who attempted, and failed, an earlier assassination? Yet that appears to be exactly what happened. It is slightly less coincidental when you consider that half of Bosnia wanted to kill him...
    Sincere question

    What do you think about Epstein? Taking into account all the fantastically weird coincidences - the wiped/defunct cameras, the sleeping guards. He was literally on suicide watch in one of America's most high profile jails, it was something that supposedly could never happen to the most important prisoner in the USA

    My guess is this: he was TOLD to commit suicide, and he was told: we shall give you a window of opportunity to do it, and a means, and during that window the cameras will not be working, and the guards will be "sleeping", and he was told the alternative was people he loved suffering very badly

    So he did it. Thus it was a coercive suicide, which is close to murder
    The Rommel approach?
    Basically, yes. I am open to other hypotheses, but they need to explain the mad weirdness
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031

    The Vance pick is aimed squarely at the rust belt voters.

    That said, didn’t he underperform in his Senate run? Ohio is reliably Republican nowadays but he was run relatively close.

    See the film
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Poor boy made good, single drug addicted mother.
    About that.
    https://x.com/mckaycoppins/status/1812940103116837140
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400

    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Brunel with a teapot?
    The Tamar Bridge really broke him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866

    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    My photo quota today is a statue of @Leon :smiley: .



    Q: Where is it?

    Llandudno Promenade
    The week before last, Mrs Stodge and I were on the Isle of Man and we stayed in Douglas and the promenade there isn't unlike the onein Llandudno, I'm told.

    The statue on the Douglas promenade is of course the Bee Gees - I was reminded of the age old maxim "whether you're a mother or whether you're a brother, you're stayin' alive, stayin' alive".
    Last year we visited the Isle of Man and stayed in a hotel on the promenade which does have similarities to Llandudno though Llandudno is more Victorian and longer

    The characters are from Alice in Wonderland and dotted around the town
    Did you partake of the steam train to Port Erin, the Horse Tramway or the lovely Electric Tramway to Ramsay?

    We took the bus to Peel, a delightful little coastal town.

    I'm sure @Sunil_Prasannan has done all the above.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Wasps are just c*nts, aren't they?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,031
    edited July 15
    Probably the worst qualified candidate in living memory.

    Judge who dismissed Trump criminal case is ‘future supreme court justice’, Gaetz says
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/trump-classified-documents-case-matt-gaetz-supreme-court

    And there’s huge competition for that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866
    edited July 15
    Sad to read of the death of the actor James B. Sikking who was wonderful was Howard Hunter in "Hill Street Blues", one of my all-time favourite tv shows.

    Trek fans will remember him as the Captain of the Excelsior in Star Trek III.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    It's still REALLY weird, the sassytempt

    "A report today says Secret Service said the building was outside its established security perimeter and so was the responsibility of local police. If so: Makes no logical sense whatsoever to put that outside the perimeter when it's an obvious access point. How could that possibly happen? And even if local police help, a security point like that should never ever be solely under the purview of the local police. And there should be second by second coordination with and oversight by Secret Service. And even in that case, the Secret Service snipers and spotters should have been scanning. That's from what I know. But there are still many blanks to be filled in."

    https://x.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1812867884038648090

    At the same time, the shooter seems to be the only person in the USA with no online presence whatsoever. Whodathunk it. Even his Discord is empty. He has no criminal record, no history of drugs, booze or mental issues, he was a decent student, with Democrat parents, middle class, almost bizarrely unexceptionable - but no online life at all

    And then from nowhere he decides to shoot Donald Trump, either knowing that it would mean certain death for him, or having been assured he would NOT die

    It is perfectly weird

    You need to keep up. This morning I linked to something that mentioned the 'rings' of security. Also, it suggests a good reason why the counter-snipers may not have seen the shooter: they are tasked to look for snipers outside that area, which should have been cleared by local police. And the G8 summit of 2008 indicates why they may not want to have counter-snipers looking at areas that the local police enforcement are in... (*)

    Instead of being weird, it might all be rather mundane; a series of mistakes that occasionally happens; all the holes in the Swiss Cheese model aligning.

    As for motivation: remember the Amess murder? The man who did it went around looking for MPs to kill; but his decision to kill Amess was nothing to do with party affiliation (one of the other people he looked at killing was Starmer). Or the Reagan shooter, who did it to impress Jodie Foster.

    (*) TLDR: the counter-snipers saw snipers on the roof of a building and nearly shot them. The snipers turned out to be local law enforcement. That would have been an embarrassing blue-on-blue...
    All very possible, and you may be on to something

    But as yet we do not know, and there are many curious anomalies, and there are lots of people (on many sides) who would really like everyone to conclude that it's a lone gunman with random murderous intent

    Just like Epstein's "suicide". For an awful lot of important people, it was definitely a positive if the public accepted that this guy coincidentally happened to top himself at the same time as every single camera went kaput and all the guards were sleeping

    And, even today, that is possible. I dunno, not for sure. Do you?

    I'd strongly argue that a case like this that did not have any 'curious anomalies' would be much more likely to be a planned conspiracy. Real life is messy, and throws up curiosities.

    Take the assassination of Franz Ferdinand; who would believe his driver would drive past, stop and then stall, very near to the man who attempted, and failed, an earlier assassination? Yet that appears to be exactly what happened. It is slightly less coincidental when you consider that half of Bosnia wanted to kill him...
    Sincere question

    What do you think about Epstein? Taking into account all the fantastically weird coincidences - the wiped/defunct cameras, the sleeping guards. He was literally on suicide watch in one of America's most high profile jails, it was something that supposedly could never happen to the most important prisoner in the USA

    My guess is this: he was TOLD to commit suicide, and he was told: we shall give you a window of opportunity to do it, and a means, and during that window the cameras will not be working, and the guards will be "sleeping", and he was told the alternative was people he loved suffering very badly

    So he did it. Thus it was a coercive suicide, which is close to murder
    The Rommel approach?
    Basically, yes. I am open to other hypotheses, but they need to explain the mad weirdness
    I think they croaked him. He is the most perfect psychopath on record, so threats to his "loved ones" would have zero leverage. The puppy gets it? No skin off my nose.
This discussion has been closed.