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It feels like a tipping point has been reached with Biden – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited July 17 in General
imageIt feels like a tipping point has been reached with Biden – politicalbetting.com

Prominent Democrats interviewed by CNN blamed the president's inner circle for keeping Biden away from unscripted settings and hiding his decline. https://t.co/WJvGc2Iy6P

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Who will be the American Leo Amery ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,576
    edited July 12
    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.

    ETA Churchill's Secret (about the stroke & recovery) can be seen on YouTube or Amazon Prime, but not ITVx, oddly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Honeymoon poll.

    What goes up must come down.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Tipping Point - call for Ben Shepherd !!!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    I think it accelerates once he's back from NATO over the weekend.

    Just not sure he's done enough or got enough support to just ignore it and KBO.

    Is there a smoking gun? Could most of his delegates just go faithless?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 <<— HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    edited July 12

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    Churchill on being accused of being drunk applies.

    Painful as this is, the Democrats have a better chance of getting rid of their bad candidate than the Republicans do of getting rid of theirs.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Why should he go though ? What is the imperative for him to. As HYUFD points out he polls better against the Trumpdozer than any other likely candidate.

    The time for him to have stepped down was before going through the rounds of primaries and caucuses.

    Nominate a better VP, stand for election, beat the Trumpdozer then stand down is a scenario.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 654

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    There is no cover up. As anyone with eyes can see from the press conference yesterday Biden doesn’t have dementia. No one with dementia could answer the kind of policy questions he did for that long. He is simply a very old man who in my view is transparently too old to do the job properly. If you’re a staffer, Governor, diplomat, foreign minister or whatever are you going to come out of a meeting with him and brief the press that he’s too old and needs to go? That’s not a cover up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    Churchill on being accused of being drunk applies.

    Painful as this is, the Democrats have a better chance of getting rid of their bad candidate than the Republicans do of getting rid of theirs.
    True. But have the Dems got the balls to do it and whatever campaign strategy they had has now been torn up and they need to start again. Money is more likely to flow to Trump as the stability candidate ( yes I know ) than to a confused Democrat party and they have only 3 months to get their act together.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
    You can hope, and of course you may be right. However the news is moving quickly now. I doubt he will hang on until the convention.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Silly Internet game of the day: https://flagmatch.com/
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,828
    Completely agreed and made the point myself that individually each gaffe can be explained, but cumulatively it is too much.

    Biden has to go.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    I think it accelerates once he's back from NATO over the weekend.

    Just not sure he's done enough or got enough support to just ignore it and KBO.

    Is there a smoking gun? Could most of his delegates just go faithless?

    Faithless electors are only relevant in the electoral college - that's not how the conventions work.

    The delegates vote for the Presidential candidate on who's behalf they were elected - the 'Robot Rule'.

    See Kennedy, E. vs Jimmy Carter in 1980.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    Churchill on being accused of being drunk applies.

    Painful as this is, the Democrats have a better chance of getting rid of their bad candidate than the Republicans do of getting rid of theirs.
    True. But have the Dems got the balls to do it and whatever campaign strategy they had has now been torn up and they need to start again. Money is more likely to flow to Trump as the stability candidate ( yes I know ) than to a confused Democrat party and they have only 3 months to get their act together.
    Ttump the stability candidate? Evidently even you realise what nonsense that it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    The stroke definitely did. To the extent that he accidentally read the same page of his speech twice at the 1953 party conference, although fortunately he noticed when he was only halfway through and turned to the next page (allowing Edward Heath, one of those who knew how ill he was, to breathe again).

    To quote Robert Blake, 'Mentally he was never the same again. There was a lack of grip and decision and cabinets degenerated into monologues. Macmillan, who was in a position to give disinterested advice as he had no prospect at that stage of become Prime Minister himself, was the man who pressed Churchill most strongly to set a retirement date.'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    I suspect you are giving an unsophisticated US electorate more credit than they are due. If they are comfortable with Trump's sedition, I doubt covering up Biden's age related weakness will trouble them too much.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    How can she not know though ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    How can she not know though ?
    Biden appears less sharp than he was a year ago, so quite possibly the strain of the campaign is what's causing the problem.

    Also, a gradual decline is often less noticeable than a sudden one.

    (Wilson's Vice President was unaware Wilson was incapacitated for the final two years of his presidency, as Mrs Wilson kept the news quiet. But that was in a rather different era.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    Do you mean the 25th Amendment?

    It might be, but it's quite a cumbersome process unless the incumbent co-operates or is actually in a coma.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited July 12
    Dura_Ace said:

    I think it accelerates once he's back from NATO over the weekend.

    Just not sure he's done enough or got enough support to just ignore it and KBO.

    Is there a smoking gun? Could most of his delegates just go faithless?

    Faithless electors are only relevant in the electoral college - that's not how the conventions work.

    The delegates vote for the Presidential candidate on who's behalf they were elected - the 'Robot Rule'.

    See Kennedy, E. vs Jimmy Carter in 1980.
    The robot rule was binned after that convention.
    This is what the rules now say, with magnificent ambiguity:

    “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

    There is neither precedent nor guidance to say what that means
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    But age is now on the ballot. That becomes interesting, if the Dems do replace their candidate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    On the domestic front, Starmer's first challenge may just have arrived:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn08685l2q8o

    4 people die trying to cross the channel. The French don't have a domestic government to talk to and seem unlikely to have one for months. Labour (rightly) find the disincentive of the Rwanda scheme abhorrent and want to bring it to an end. What do they do? Its a tricky one that Starmer largely ducked during the election.

    I think the time has arrived to be truly radical. Everyone who has been here 10 years, whether legally or not, is granted an amnesty. The backlogs are vigorously attacked after the elimination of tens of thousands of cases through the amnesty and acted upon. Those who arrive are processed within weeks and then either granted asylum or removed. We have the worst of all worlds at the moment because the previous government was scared of bigots and racists. Act, act now.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    ...

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
    You can hope, and of course you may be right. However the news is moving quickly now. I doubt he will hang on until the convention.
    Maybe. But if he hangs on it's bad. If he goes that will take the best part of a week to get him shifted - withdraw as candidate but stay as Potus ? Just plain go ? - and then several weeks to sort out a new candidate.

    With three months to go this was not the campaign the Democrats thought they would be fighting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    DavidL said:

    On the domestic front, Starmer's first challenge may just have arrived:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn08685l2q8o

    4 people die trying to cross the channel. The French don't have a domestic government to talk to and seem unlikely to have one for months. Labour (rightly) find the disincentive of the Rwanda scheme abhorrent and want to bring it to an end. What do they do? Its a tricky one that Starmer largely ducked during the election.

    I think the time has arrived to be truly radical. Everyone who has been here 10 years, whether legally or not, is granted an amnesty. The backlogs are vigorously attacked after the elimination of tens of thousands of cases through the amnesty and acted upon. Those who arrive are processed within weeks and then either granted asylum or removed. We have the worst of all worlds at the moment because the previous government was scared of bigots and racists. Act, act now.

    That has been the right solution for 20 years.

    And it has been unacceptable for all those 20 years.

    Also difficult to enforce without ID cards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    It really isn't.
    The best way is for Biden to step down.

    But achieving either option is, for now, problematic.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    As someone said last night just write I RESIGN on his autocue.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Biden's little whispery asides and a couple of oblique swipes at his team for eg adding stuff to his workload gave the slight impression of a not unwilling hostage to me. But a hostage nonetheless.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited July 12
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Yes. My father is a driver, someone who used to do rallies and still drives like Lewis Hamilton. That he said what he did to me, was both very perceptive on his part and very trusting of me as a relative.

    Everyone in the senior echelons of the Democratic party and the liberal media have known about Biden for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited July 12

    ...

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
    You can hope, and of course you may be right. However the news is moving quickly now. I doubt he will hang on until the convention.
    Maybe. But if he hangs on it's bad. If he goes that will take the best part of a week to get him shifted - withdraw as candidate but stay as Potus ? Just plain go ? - and then several weeks to sort out a new candidate.

    With three months to go this was not the campaign the Democrats thought they would be fighting.
    I agree, and every attempt to reset makes Biden appeared even less coherent than the last time. Once Biden is gone the decline can be explained away as very rapid, compare and contrast the State of the Union speech with the last fortnight of chaos.

    Remember too Trump has been ruminating on sharks and batteries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I think it accelerates once he's back from NATO over the weekend.

    Just not sure he's done enough or got enough support to just ignore it and KBO.

    Is there a smoking gun? Could most of his delegates just go faithless?

    Faithless electors are only relevant in the electoral college - that's not how the conventions work.

    The delegates vote for the Presidential candidate on who's behalf they were elected - the 'Robot Rule'.

    See Kennedy, E. vs Jimmy Carter in 1980.
    The robot rule was binned after that convention.
    This is what the rules now say, with magnificent ambiguity:

    “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

    There is neither precedent nor guidance to say what that means
    There have been media reports that Biden's team have been quietly phoning delegates and checking they will still vote for their man.

    This is beyond madness now.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited July 12

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    On the topic:

    "Mr Biden’s inability to deliver cogent, or for that matter complete, sentences was “not surprising” to those present at the LA fundraiser hosted by Clooney, according to Jon Favreau, another former Obama staffer.

    “I was there. Clooney was exactly right, and every single person I talked to at the fundraiser thought the same thing, except for the people working for Joe Biden, or at least they didn’t say that,” he told CNN."

    Telegraph
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,363
    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Apparently Biden’s team are looking at polling re Harris .

    This means they’ll find the polls which aren’t great for her and promote them. The next debate is in September and it’s hard to imagine that won’t be a car crash.

    At this point either the Dems come out in force and ask for him to stand down or accept he’s not going anywhere .

    The odd Dem asking for him to go isn’t going to work .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
    Well it’s the closest American equivalent to the men in grey suits handing him the whisky and the revolver.

    Given how many Dem Reps and Senators have already come out in favour of him stepping down, the sticking point is going to persuading the Republicans that he’s not the best Dem nominee ever!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013

    I don't know why people keep saying "Trump is worse". We know, everybody knows, but the DNC can't replace Trump they can only replace Biden and give themselves a better chance of beating Trump.
    Because while people obsess over Biden's real but somewhat exaggerated frailty, they're overlooking Trump's real and much more serious than admitted problems.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Biden's disintegration is happening about three months too soon for Trump and six months too soon for Jill and Hunter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
    Of all @Leons ludicrous claims the least credible is that he is the only one who noticed that Biden is old and frail.

    The Atlantic now is pretty clear over Biden:

    https://x.com/elainaplott/status/1811245622898377203?t=NTiDvPojxZTkH-3NHGm1kw&s=19
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361

    Biden's disintegration is happening about three months too soon for Trump and six months too soon for Jill and Hunter.

    But bang on the timeline for America....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited July 12
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
    Of all @Leons ludicrous claims the least credible is that he is the only one who noticed that Biden is old and frail.

    The Atlantic now is pretty clear over Biden:

    https://x.com/elainaplott/status/1811245622898377203?t=NTiDvPojxZTkH-3NHGm1kw&s=19
    The same Atlantic that were begging him to stay alive more than four years ago?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013

    I don't know why people keep saying "Trump is worse". We know, everybody knows, but the DNC can't replace Trump they can only replace Biden and give themselves a better chance of beating Trump.
    Because while people obsess over Biden's real but somewhat exaggerated frailty, they're overlooking Trump's real and much more serious than admitted problems.
    Nobody is overlooking them. Everyone knows what Trump is like, what is at stake, and how poorly Biden is performing, and that is why there is a clamour to replace Biden with someone who has a better chance of beating Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013

    I don't know why people keep saying "Trump is worse". We know, everybody knows, but the DNC can't replace Trump they can only replace Biden and give themselves a better chance of beating Trump.
    Because while people obsess over Biden's real but somewhat exaggerated frailty, they're overlooking Trump's real and much more serious than admitted problems.
    Frenzied media goaded on by House Democrats fearing for their political lives not because they think Biden is senile but because he's had a few bad polls and the main thing perpetuating those polls is Senator Y from state X coming out against him.
    Biden has a superb grasp of foreign policy which came out last night and if he's forced out Democrats can wave goodbye to the White House.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited July 12

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
    Vanity which is a requisite to some degree for most politicians. The trouble with Biden’s situation is that he’s past the point of a graceful, controlled departure from the stage and he’s convinced himself the only option is to fight it out for the chance of another four years. I actually find the feisty, combative, old coot stuff more cringeworthy than the gaffes.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,828
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
    That's an effectively meaningless proviso in this scenario, just like the Fixed Term Parliament Act's proviso that Parliament needed to vote through an election.

    Once announced, realpolitik forces everyone to vote accordingly.

    The Democrat Congress, having seen Harris and the Cabinet oust Biden, will have no realistic option but to ratify it.
    The GOP Congress realistically can't and won't vote to say that Biden is fit to continue.

    So the Congressional element is a dead rubber. Its the pressure on Harris that she has to be the one to wield the sword that is the hardest element there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Biden's disintegration is happening about three months too soon for Trump and six months too soon for Jill and Hunter.

    But bang on the timeline for America....
    Imagine if that first debate had been on the usual schedule, just after the Conferences.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361

    ...

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
    You can hope, and of course you may be right. However the news is moving quickly now. I doubt he will hang on until the convention.
    Maybe. But if he hangs on it's bad. If he goes that will take the best part of a week to get him shifted - withdraw as candidate but stay as Potus ? Just plain go ? - and then several weeks to sort out a new candidate.

    With three months to go this was not the campaign the Democrats thought they would be fighting.
    I agree, and every attempt to reset makes Biden appeared even less coherent than the last time. Once Biden is gone the decline can be explained away as very rapid, compare and contrast the State of the Union speech with the last fortnight of chaos.

    Remember too Trump has been ruminating on sharks and batteries.
    Trump also recently gaffed his son a wife that nobody else knows about.

    Imagine if Biden that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
    Of all @Leons ludicrous claims the least credible is that he is the only one who noticed that Biden is old and frail.

    The Atlantic now is pretty clear over Biden:

    https://x.com/elainaplott/status/1811245622898377203?t=NTiDvPojxZTkH-3NHGm1kw&s=19
    The same Atlantic that were begging him to stay alive more than four years ago?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    Doesn't that prove Foxy's point? We've all known for ages, and been guilty of ignoring it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited July 12
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
    Of all @Leons ludicrous claims the least credible is that he is the only one who noticed that Biden is old and frail.

    The Atlantic now is pretty clear over Biden:

    https://x.com/elainaplott/status/1811245622898377203?t=NTiDvPojxZTkH-3NHGm1kw&s=19
    The same Atlantic that were begging him to stay alive more than four years ago?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    Well yes, Biden is now 4 years older!

    Be careful what you wish for. The future of Ukraine most likely hinges on Trump not being President in Six months.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,194

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
    The same mentality that makes them want to do it in the first place, surely?

    It's an incredibly hard job that can only work if you have the selfless and unquestioning support of your family, combined with an unshakeable belief in your own importance.

    It's no surprise that Biden is trying to stick this out, nor that Jill is backing him completely (in public at least). It's sad, and self-defeating, but not surprising.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013

    I don't know why people keep saying "Trump is worse". We know, everybody knows, but the DNC can't replace Trump they can only replace Biden and give themselves a better chance of beating Trump.
    Because while people obsess over Biden's real but somewhat exaggerated frailty, they're overlooking Trump's real and much more serious than admitted problems.
    Really this is not as hard work as you make it seem. Everyone: the defeat of trump is the most important thing in the world. That is why Biden has to go. You: you bunch of trump loving bastards. Biden is senile not frail (unless he is that as well) and he thinks Trump is the VP. This is like saying Your obsession with attaining net zero shows how blind you are to the climate crisis.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    ...

    Trump's team must be thanking their lucky stars.

    The media story has all moved away from from his legal problems to Biden being unfit to govern. Dems now on the back foot.

    If the Dems get their act together some of the more serious stories brushed under the carpet in 2016 and 2020 are returning to bite Trump.

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-katie-johnson-allegations-sexual-assault-case-dismissed-1921051
    If. But so far they havent and the Biden saga could take another month to resolve.
    You can hope, and of course you may be right. However the news is moving quickly now. I doubt he will hang on until the convention.
    Maybe. But if he hangs on it's bad. If he goes that will take the best part of a week to get him shifted - withdraw as candidate but stay as Potus ? Just plain go ? - and then several weeks to sort out a new candidate.

    With three months to go this was not the campaign the Democrats thought they would be fighting.
    I agree, and every attempt to reset makes Biden appeared even less coherent than the last time. Once Biden is gone the decline can be explained away as very rapid, compare and contrast the State of the Union speech with the last fortnight of chaos.

    Remember too Trump has been ruminating on sharks and batteries.
    Trump also recently gaffed his son a wife that nobody else knows about.

    Imagine if Biden that.
    The gloves are off now. I feel Katie Johnson will feature in this campaign and how the religious right square that circle, except by denial, will be interesting to watch.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,425
    edited July 12
    Don't discount the physical element in all this. You might find that Biden, when fresh and not under pressure, is perfectly fine (and therefore invulnerable from the various "tests").

    If it's something like Parkinson's it's the physical exhaustion that will cause all the issues, or the side effects from the medication he is on for it (according to my partner). The key is to challenge Biden's fitness in the round, not just pure mental faculties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    glw said:

    ydoethur said:

    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SethAbramson

    Trump makes 3 speaking gaffes for every one of Biden's—and Trump may be the most scripted US politician ever. If he's not reading off a teleprompter, he's repeating a lie or made-up anecdote or rhetorical setpiece he shovels at fans *each and every rally*.

    https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1811584133417640013

    I don't know why people keep saying "Trump is worse". We know, everybody knows, but the DNC can't replace Trump they can only replace Biden and give themselves a better chance of beating Trump.
    Because while people obsess over Biden's real but somewhat exaggerated frailty, they're overlooking Trump's real and much more serious than admitted problems.
    Nobody is overlooking them. Everyone knows what Trump is like, what is at stake, and how poorly Biden is performing, and that is why there is a clamour to replace Biden with someone who has a better chance of beating Trump.
    As someone who has been laying the both of them, and advocating such on here, for at least two years, the dream result feels like it's becoming a possibility...
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Biden’s own campaign team posted the video of him calling Zelensky, Putin.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460 HIS OWN CAMPAIGN ACCOUNT.

    Biden in the press conference afterwards:

    “I wouldn’t have picked vice-president Trump to be vice-president, if I didn’t think she was up to the job”

    https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1811547150557290543

    It’s actually quite sad that those around him, starting with Jill and Hunter, don’t want to tell him that he needs to stand aside.

    We’ve all had these conversations with elderly parents and grandparents. My father (73 and thankfully in good health), told me several years ago that he wants me to tell him when to stop driving, for example. The problem with Biden is that all of those around him rely on the patronage that results from him being the big man.

    I think the driving analogy is a good one. If you didn't do everything possible to stop an unfit parent from driving and they went onto kill someone, you bear a great deal of responsibility.

    The danger for the Democrats is that the anger and blame starts to shift onto Harris for this disaster (particularly if she has known about it for some time).
    Everyone in the senior echelons of the party and the liberal media have known about this for years, but very few have put their head above the parapet until a fortnight ago.

    This one, from The Atlantic in March 2020, stands out. Eight months before the last election, they knew they were promoting someone in his last years, but were willing to support anything to beat Trump.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    “Stay Alive, Joe Biden
    “Democrats need little from the front-runner beyond his corporeal presence.”
    But that can't be right? Surely Leon spotted it all on his own, and no-one else noticed for at least a year thereafter?
    Of all @Leons ludicrous claims the least credible is that he is the only one who noticed that Biden is old and frail.

    The Atlantic now is pretty clear over Biden:

    https://x.com/elainaplott/status/1811245622898377203?t=NTiDvPojxZTkH-3NHGm1kw&s=19
    The same Atlantic that were begging him to stay alive more than four years ago?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/stay-alive-joe-biden/608614/
    This debate robs everyone of their wits. Not just Biden. How on earth is that a point?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    Given what the Biden DOJ has done to Trump and those around him, I’m not sure much is off the table at the moment.

    It’s a seminal moment for the country, and I’m not sure it ends well for anyone.

    It’s unlikely to happen this cycle, but someone in the US needs to turn up soon and force the centre ground rather than the extremes.

    I’ll go with the unpopular view that Trumpism dies with Trump, so the best thing might be to elect him this year becuase there’s no way he’s going to amend the Constitution on term limits.

    The much wider issue, as we saw in the UK election, is that the established parties have record low support in the face of globalisation and wages failing to keep up with the average man’s experience of earnings and inflation - with official statistics rendered meaningless to the experiences of that average man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    Probably because of the need for Senate confirmation hearings for each new appointee to each post. 24 of the 26 cabinet positions are subject to Senate approval.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
    That's an effectively meaningless proviso in this scenario, just like the Fixed Term Parliament Act's proviso that Parliament needed to vote through an election.

    Once announced, realpolitik forces everyone to vote accordingly.

    The Democrat Congress, having seen Harris and the Cabinet oust Biden, will have no realistic option but to ratify it.
    The GOP Congress realistically can't and won't vote to say that Biden is fit to continue.

    So the Congressional element is a dead rubber. Its the pressure on Harris that she has to be the one to wield the sword that is the hardest element there.
    If the GOP had been quick and clever enough they would already have impeached Biden on grounds of incapacity.

    Resulting in either the Dems defending him or arguing amongst themselves.

    Instead they spent the last year investigating supposed misconduct.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    The problems with Biden going are

    1) Campaign finance. Only Harris can simply go forward with the money raised so far. However, the ticket goes from Biden/Harris to Harris/?

    American campaign finance law is extremely lax is some ways and extremely proscriptive in others. Even if it is Harris taking over the ticket there will be plenty of ways for lawyers to interfere. And tie up the campaign in allegations of illegality. Given the GOP hard right has pushed judges into the system (not just the Supreme Court), you can bet on some eye bending judgements - "This is illegal because it is done by a Democrat"....

    If it isn't Harris, then all the money has to go back and be re-donated, probably. Orchestrating that will be fun. Plus all kinds of legal challenges are possible (see above)

    2) Harris. It looks like she would lose slightly worse than Biden. There isn't a challenger who stands out as better than Biden. Even now.

    Trump seems very clear that he wants a re-run vs Biden. Which in a way makes sense - very narrow last time and with Biden off his game, he has a known opponent. Plus, for Trump, there is the revenge aspect of defeating the man who defeated him.

    So the Dems would be backing (probably Harris) as an 52 card pickup game - hope that between the turmoil and the occasion, their new pick would soar in the polls.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
    Vanity which is a requisite to some degree for most politicians. The trouble with Biden’s situation is that he’s past the point of a graceful, controlled departure from the stage and he’s convinced himself the only option is to fight it out for the chance of another four years. I actually find the feisty, combative, old coot stuff more cringeworthy than the gaffes.
    Its one of the reasons I think France and the US have it right with term limits.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    Probably because of the need for Senate confirmation hearings for each new appointee to each post. 24 of the 26 cabinet positions are subject to Senate approval.
    It certainly seems to have worked for the USA and Biden, whatever doubts there are about him personally I can't think of any particular errors by his administration team.
    Only slight gaffe that springs to mind is when Blinken played Rockin' in the free world - perhaps slightly tone deaf at the time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    FPT
    That’s actually an interesting one. There are a number of spats between Germany and France in the economic sphere at the moment. And never forget the German worship of sound money.

    For example, days before the first launch of Ariane 6, Eumetsat cancelled a planned launch with Ariane 6, moving it to the cheaper and proven SpaceX F9.

    On the face of it an arguable decision - the satellite is unique and expensive and it would have been the first flight of that configuration of Ariane 6. When originally booked it would have flown years after A6 went into service. But A6 was delayed. And delayed.

    But Ariane is seen as a French controlled EU champion. To the the French this is something like treason.

    Worse, the vote by the controlling countries in Eumetsat was everyone vs France. Germany has orchestrated the votes before the meeting to get a 14-1 result.

    https://europeanspaceflight.com/cnes-chief-responds-harshly-to-eumetsats-decision-to-ditch-ariane-6/

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
    Mayorkas ???
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
    That's an effectively meaningless proviso in this scenario, just like the Fixed Term Parliament Act's proviso that Parliament needed to vote through an election.

    Once announced, realpolitik forces everyone to vote accordingly.

    The Democrat Congress, having seen Harris and the Cabinet oust Biden, will have no realistic option but to ratify it.
    The GOP Congress realistically can't and won't vote to say that Biden is fit to continue.

    So the Congressional element is a dead rubber. Its the pressure on Harris that she has to be the one to wield the sword that is the hardest element there.
    If the GOP had been quick and clever enough they would already have impeached Biden on grounds of incapacity.

    Resulting in either the Dems defending him or arguing amongst themselves.

    Instead they spent the last year investigating supposed misconduct.
    I think Trump & Co. reckoned that this is one of those things that argue itself. You are watching an opponent dig themselves in deeper and deeper in a hole - why interrupt.

    Plus it seems that Trump wants to face Biden - revenge? Plus he lost very narrowly last time. Given Biden's issues.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited July 12
    The US arm of media that normally runs defence for Democrats / Biden are wall to wall he has to go e.g.

    Barack Obama has expressed private concerns about Joe Biden’s reelection chances, according to CNN.

    Dozens of Democrat lawmakers are expected to soon call for Joe Biden to step out of the race for November’s US presidential election, according to CBS News.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
    Mayorkas ???
    Just making the contrast with how many ministers the UK seemed to go through. I'll admit you've got me I have no idea if Mayorkas is good or bad or even who they are.
    Austin, Blinken, Yellen and Harris - the big beasts as it were seem good picks. He's never stuck a Zahawi in the treasury ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
    Also, in the American system, the Cabinet appointments are for technocrats to do various things at the direction of the President, not leading politicians who might become President next time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    FPT

    That’s actually an interesting one. There are a number of spats between Germany and France in the economic sphere at the moment. And never forget the German worship of sound money.

    For example, days before the first launch of Ariane 6, Eumetsat cancelled a planned launch with Ariane 6, moving it to the cheaper and proven SpaceX F9.

    On the face of it an arguable decision - the satellite is unique and expensive and it would have been the first flight of that configuration of Ariane 6. When originally booked it would have flown years after A6 went into service. But A6 was delayed. And delayed.

    But Ariane is seen as a French controlled EU champion. To the the French this is something like treason.

    Worse, the vote by the controlling countries in Eumetsat was everyone vs France. Germany has orchestrated the votes before the meeting to get a 14-1 result.

    https://europeanspaceflight.com/cnes-chief-responds-harshly-to-eumetsats-decision-to-ditch-ariane-6/

    The single biggest question in space flight at the moment, is who exactly is prepared to put in the investment required to prevent a SpaceX monopoly?

    The best possible solution is likely to be some international consortium agreeing to pay $$$ to open source the F9 technology on a perpetual basis for low earth orbit, and let Musk and co get on with their ambitions to colonise Mars.

    Somewhat amazingly, SpaceX remains a private company.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
    Vanity which is a requisite to some degree for most politicians. The trouble with Biden’s situation is that he’s past the point of a graceful, controlled departure from the stage and he’s convinced himself the only option is to fight it out for the chance of another four years. I actually find the feisty, combative, old coot stuff more cringeworthy than the gaffes.
    The belief that one is absolutely right and everyone else is wrong seems to be fairly common in leading politicians.

    “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters,” Mr. Obama told Patrick Gaspard, his political director, at the start of the 2008 campaign, according to The New Yorker. “I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m going to think I’m a better political director than my political director.”
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    Given what the Biden DOJ has done to Trump and those around him, I’m not sure much is off the table at the moment.

    It’s a seminal moment for the country, and I’m not sure it ends well for anyone.

    It’s unlikely to happen this cycle, but someone in the US needs to turn up soon and force the centre ground rather than the extremes.

    I’ll go with the unpopular view that Trumpism dies with Trump, so the best thing might be to elect him this year becuase there’s no way he’s going to amend the Constitution on term limits.

    The much wider issue, as we saw in the UK election, is that the established parties have record low support in the face of globalisation and wages failing to keep up with the average man’s experience of earnings and inflation - with official statistics rendered meaningless to the experiences of that average man.
    What the average man thinks he is experiencing is often different to what he is actually experiencing.

    And both are often different to what he thinks he deserves.

    The western world is not going to be meeting many people's expectations for the foreseeable future.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    It also requires Biden not to dispute it, as if he does a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress is required to uphold the invocation.
    That's an effectively meaningless proviso in this scenario, just like the Fixed Term Parliament Act's proviso that Parliament needed to vote through an election.

    Once announced, realpolitik forces everyone to vote accordingly.

    The Democrat Congress, having seen Harris and the Cabinet oust Biden, will have no realistic option but to ratify it.
    The GOP Congress realistically can't and won't vote to say that Biden is fit to continue.

    So the Congressional element is a dead rubber. Its the pressure on Harris that she has to be the one to wield the sword that is the hardest element there.
    The GOP House will vote whichever way Trump thinks is in his best interests.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    The problems with Biden going are

    1) Campaign finance. Only Harris can simply go forward with the money raised so far. However, the ticket goes from Biden/Harris to Harris/?

    American campaign finance law is extremely lax is some ways and extremely proscriptive in others. Even if it is Harris taking over the ticket there will be plenty of ways for lawyers to interfere. And tie up the campaign in allegations of illegality. Given the GOP hard right has pushed judges into the system (not just the Supreme Court), you can bet on some eye bending judgements - "This is illegal because it is done by a Democrat"....

    If it isn't Harris, then all the money has to go back and be re-donated, probably. Orchestrating that will be fun. Plus all kinds of legal challenges are possible (see above)

    2) Harris. It looks like she would lose slightly worse than Biden. There isn't a challenger who stands out as better than Biden. Even now.

    Trump seems very clear that he wants a re-run vs Biden. Which in a way makes sense - very narrow last time and with Biden off his game, he has a known opponent. Plus, for Trump, there is the revenge aspect of defeating the man who defeated him.

    So the Dems would be backing (probably Harris) as an 52 card pickup game - hope that between the turmoil and the occasion, their new pick would soar in the polls.

    On the other hand Biden stepping down hits the Trump Campaign too, perhaps even harder.

    It would require a major change to reorientate against Harris.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    That’s actually an interesting one. There are a number of spats between Germany and France in the economic sphere at the moment. And never forget the German worship of sound money.

    For example, days before the first launch of Ariane 6, Eumetsat cancelled a planned launch with Ariane 6, moving it to the cheaper and proven SpaceX F9.

    On the face of it an arguable decision - the satellite is unique and expensive and it would have been the first flight of that configuration of Ariane 6. When originally booked it would have flown years after A6 went into service. But A6 was delayed. And delayed.

    But Ariane is seen as a French controlled EU champion. To the the French this is something like treason.

    Worse, the vote by the controlling countries in Eumetsat was everyone vs France. Germany has orchestrated the votes before the meeting to get a 14-1 result.

    https://europeanspaceflight.com/cnes-chief-responds-harshly-to-eumetsats-decision-to-ditch-ariane-6/

    The single biggest question in space flight at the moment, is who exactly is prepared to put in the investment required to prevent a SpaceX monopoly?

    The best possible solution is likely to be some international consortium agreeing to pay $$$ to open source the F9 technology on a perpetual basis for low earth orbit, and let Musk and co get on with their ambitions to colonise Mars.

    Somewhat amazingly, SpaceX remains a private company.
    You can bet on it via Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust or Edinburgh Worldwide. I have.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    DavidL said:

    On the domestic front, Starmer's first challenge may just have arrived:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn08685l2q8o

    4 people die trying to cross the channel. The French don't have a domestic government to talk to and seem unlikely to have one for months. Labour (rightly) find the disincentive of the Rwanda scheme abhorrent and want to bring it to an end. What do they do? Its a tricky one that Starmer largely ducked during the election.

    I think the time has arrived to be truly radical. Everyone who has been here 10 years, whether legally or not, is granted an amnesty. The backlogs are vigorously attacked after the elimination of tens of thousands of cases through the amnesty and acted upon. Those who arrive are processed within weeks and then either granted asylum or removed. We have the worst of all worlds at the moment because the previous government was scared of bigots and racists. Act, act now.

    Good point. Anyone who is not on board, and happy clappy, with mass inward migration is a bigot or a racist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
    Also, in the American system, the Cabinet appointments are for technocrats to do various things at the direction of the President, not leading politicians who might become President next time.
    That's a good point, Hunt was I think the best choice for chancellor because he knew his time had come and gone for the Tory leadership & Cameron made an excellent foreign Sec being another politician who has no further ambition to lead the Tories. Now she might not make it (Probably won't) but Braverman was a strikingly ineffectual Home Secretary and all Badenoch seemed to want to do as Minister for Women was stoke up the culture wars...
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    Its a feature of the UK system that there's no way a PM could have lasted this long when incapable.

    Winston Churchill had a heart attack during the war, and a stroke during his second term. Both were covered up for decades.
    Neither appear to have affected his mental abilities. That is a crucial difference.
    I think the stroke did. His second premiership wasn't exactly dynamic.

    The problem with Biden is not so much his current state, which has clearly declined in the last year or two, but more whether he is up to 4 more years. He clearly isn't and a change to Kamala is the right thing to do.

    America is a country that worships youth to the point of denying ageing, so does seem to have far too many ancient politicians.

    Just retire FFS.
    What is it about the mentality of some politicians that makes them want to go on forever? Why not, after a reasonable run as leader, would you not want to call it a day, and sit back and retire in comfort instead of making a fool of yourself?
    Vanity which is a requisite to some degree for most politicians. The trouble with Biden’s situation is that he’s past the point of a graceful, controlled departure from the stage and he’s convinced himself the only option is to fight it out for the chance of another four years. I actually find the feisty, combative, old coot stuff more cringeworthy than the gaffes.
    The belief that one is absolutely right and everyone else is wrong seems to be fairly common in leading politicians.

    “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters,” Mr. Obama told Patrick Gaspard, his political director, at the start of the 2008 campaign, according to The New Yorker. “I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m going to think I’m a better political director than my political director.”
    I quite approve of that. A president should be delegating that sort of thing because there's not enough hours in the day, not because he's not the best person to do it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    That said, I'm not sure there's a mechanism to make him to unless he wants to go and decides to go. Unless his thousands of delegates all rat on him at the convention.

    So perhaps he just doesn't even if the everyone else wants him to.

    Article 25 is probably the best way.
    25th Amendment. Basically that the Cabinet can declare the President unfit to hold office.

    Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    This might now be the only way to remove him from the nomination, if he’s unwilling to do so himself. But it requires Harris to weird the sword.
    If they don't this cabinet may well find themselves under criminal investigation during Trump's presidency.

    This is creating an opportunity/risk for the whole Dem leadership to be taken down.
    One thing that looks odd to British eyes is how few changes there has been to Biden's cabinet:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Joe_Biden
    It looks odd to us because he's managed to choose competent people to fit each role and hasn't gone round 10 secretaries of housing and urban development.
    Mayorkas ???
    Just making the contrast with how many ministers the UK seemed to go through. I'll admit you've got me I have no idea if Mayorkas is good or bad or even who they are.
    Austin, Blinken, Yellen and Harris - the big beasts as it were seem good picks. He's never stuck a Zahawi in the treasury ;)
    Mayorkas is Homeland Security Sec in a period of no control on the southern border and Biden having to eventually take executive action with immigration being the GOP's strongest campaigning issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    One point about the prisons - why is it that we can't deport all our foreign national prisoners*

    * Not including Syrians, Afghans, Somalians, Iranians and other difficult countries but Indians, Albanians, French, USA and so forth. Apparently there's over 10,000 of them in our jails - they can't all be from countries like the first four.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Are Biden’s own campaigners now hanging him out to dry?

    https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1811533805829689460

    They’ve left this up for 10 hours now.

    “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine. A man who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, president Putin”
This discussion has been closed.