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How the pollsters fared in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 10 in General
How the pollsters fared in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

?????????? So, how did the polls and models perform in Scotland?TL;DR: the polls did very well indeed, the models did not do quite as well.Let's start with the polls. The predicted vote shares below were, on average, within 1.2pts of the actual vote shares for each party (1/13) https://t.co/WpXu8KsiSF pic.twitter.com/CCrWlo0dfx

Read the full story here

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    The SNP faces an additional financial black hole of almost £500,000 after its general election disaster.

    A huge drop in the number of nationalist MPs means that the amount of taxpayer support received by the party is expected to fall to about £350,000 from £1.3 million at present.

    However The Times has learnt that the Westminster group will also miss out on almost £464,000 that came in through donations from its MPs.

    Last year Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, increased his parliamentarians’ annual contribution to pooled funding, which pays for central research staff, by 3 per cent to £11,893. That will reduce dramatically with the loss of 39 nationalist MPs leaving it with only nine.

    Unlike at Holyrood, where MSPs pay 6 per cent of the money they are given to employ office staff to a central pot, the Westminster group’s standing orders say that all MPs should contribute equally to pay for researchers and press officers “at a level set by the group”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/snp-finances-lurch-into-crisis-after-general-election-disaster-0q05b5lln
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 9
    First!

    Cleverly's been a naughty boy, it would appear?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Good article! So UNS seems odd but works.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681
    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Cleverly's been a naughty boy, it would appear?

    Pray tell
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    The SNP faces an additional financial black hole of almost £500,000 after its general election disaster.

    A huge drop in the number of nationalist MPs means that the amount of taxpayer support received by the party is expected to fall to about £350,000 from £1.3 million at present.

    However The Times has learnt that the Westminster group will also miss out on almost £464,000 that came in through donations from its MPs.

    Last year Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, increased his parliamentarians’ annual contribution to pooled funding, which pays for central research staff, by 3 per cent to £11,893. That will reduce dramatically with the loss of 39 nationalist MPs leaving it with only nine.

    Unlike at Holyrood, where MSPs pay 6 per cent of the money they are given to employ office staff to a central pot, the Westminster group’s standing orders say that all MPs should contribute equally to pay for researchers and press officers “at a level set by the group”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/snp-finances-lurch-into-crisis-after-general-election-disaster-0q05b5lln

    So the Times is printing an article based on what people were pointing out here when the exit poll came out?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Cleverly's been a naughty boy, it would appear?

    Pray tell
    (Apparently) doing nothing, not even responding, about a report sent to him about appalling conditions at the immigration centre.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    The models and MRPs for Scotland never quite passed the sniff test (as indeed the national ones did not). I wonder if less weight needs to be put on big monolithic convictions such as independence or leave/remain - they matter, but don’t trump other things people do also care a lot about, e.g. public services, tax, mortgages, corruption and incompetence in high office etc.

    Inverness [etc] seat did feel like a bit of a surprise nonetheless though, given the relative size of the swing. It’s one of many mini-stories of this election I’d like to know more about.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 9
    Ghedebrav said:

    The models and MRPs for Scotland never quite passed the sniff test (as indeed the national ones did not). I wonder if less weight needs to be put on big monolithic convictions such as independence or leave/remain - they matter, but don’t trump other things people do also care a lot about, e.g. public services, tax, mortgages, corruption and incompetence in high office etc.

    Inverness [etc] seat did feel like a bit of a surprise nonetheless though, given the relative size of the swing. It’s one of many mini-stories of this election I’d like to know more about.

    I the Scottish polls/MRPs missed the fact that Labour (and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems) were campaigning against not one but two unpopular governments.

    I also think they didn't pick up tactical Unionist voting in a lot of places.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Cleverly's been a naughty boy, it would appear?

    Again?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Favourite results of the night were in Scotland. Well, Scotland and Rochdale.

    Least favourite were in Birmingham.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Good morning, everyone.

    Pissing it down here.

    Mr. Eagles, was it Unionist tactical voting or the standard Lab-Lib stuff?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited July 9
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    The funniest thing about Alba is that even Salmond voted SNP.

    There was no Alba candidate in his constituency.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Sanctions on India now long overdue for their laundering of Russian oil and gas. What the hell is Modi doing turning up in Moscow?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/09/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news7/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734

    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro

    Which conveniently leaves an Adrian Newey sized vacancy at Ferrari.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Sandpit, you conspiracy theorist, you. Newey's targeted by Aston Martin as well as Ferrari, so we shall see.

    Also, India's playing at being 'neutral'.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Sandpit said:

    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro

    Which conveniently leaves an Adrian Newey sized vacancy at Ferrari.
    Except Adrian Newey is supposed to have serious reservations about moving to Italy after his previous experience with Italian authorities..
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    He really needs to wind his neck in.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    That photo is so bad (it's looks like a midjourney photo from early 2023) though I can see why people are dubious -
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro

    Which conveniently leaves an Adrian Newey sized vacancy at Ferrari.
    Except Adrian Newey is supposed to have serious reservations about moving to Italy after his previous experience with Italian authorities..
    Indeed so, which is why there’s allegedly 100m reasons on the table, for a three year project that likely won’t require him to relocate.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited July 9
    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Sandpit said:

    Sanctions on India now long overdue for their laundering of Russian oil and gas. What the hell is Modi doing turning up in Moscow?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/09/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news7/

    Whenever Modi or his party talk about the evils of the British empire, we should ask why he's aiding and abetting an active phase of Russian imperialism. It was wrong then; it's wrong now.

    Will he pay reparations to Ukraine for the damage his support of Russia has caused them?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Cleverly's been a naughty boy, it would appear?

    Pray tell
    (Apparently) doing nothing, not even responding, about a report sent to him about appalling conditions at the immigration centre.
    Suspect we're about to see a fair few stories like this.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    edited July 9

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 9
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro

    Which conveniently leaves an Adrian Newey sized vacancy at Ferrari.
    Except Adrian Newey is supposed to have serious reservations about moving to Italy after his previous experience with Italian authorities..
    Indeed so, which is why there’s allegedly 100m reasons on the table, for a three year project that likely won’t require him to relocate.
    Plus helping Sir Lewis win his ninth* F1 title in 2025 will be awesome for Newey and his CV.

    *Hamilton won in 2021 and no matter what Michael Masi's corruption did will convince me otherwise.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited July 9

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    eek said:

    That photo is so bad (it's looks like a midjourney photo from early 2023) though I can see why people are dubious -
    Made me laugh:

    https://x.com/MrJoeGooch/status/1810348679984824475
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Which people are you talking about? Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour, whoever does it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734

    Sandpit said:

    Sanctions on India now long overdue for their laundering of Russian oil and gas. What the hell is Modi doing turning up in Moscow?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/09/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news7/

    Whenever Modi or his party talk about the evils of the British empire, we should ask why he's aiding and abetting an active phase of Russian imperialism. It was wrong then; it's wrong now.

    Will he pay reparations to Ukraine for the damage his support of Russia has caused them?
    If he goes back to India and says he’ll stop buying sanctioned O&G products, and pay to rebuild that hospital in Kiev, then I might start to have some respect for him. Until then…
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    edited July 9
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Which people are you talking about? Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour, whoever does it.
    The many posters on here who immediately blamed Israel for the attack on the hospital in Gaza, when the cause was uncertain (and it does now look as though it was a Hamas weapon, not an Israeli one). Also those (essentially the same people), who believed the figures Hamas released about the number of deaths.

    Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour; but it appears only Israel gets opprobrium for it. Even if it's unclear it was their fault.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Yes, that the next few years will be difficult is hardly news.
    The Telegraph states "Blair predicts £50bn Labour tax raid". Nothing about that headline is true. Maybe this is an example of papers telling us what someone is going to say before they say it, which I dislike but accept that the speakers are complicit. But better to say "Blair to predict..." or "Blair to warn of £50bn tax gap".

    I know I'm whistling in the wind btw, but feel better for it ;-)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Which people are you talking about? Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour, whoever does it.
    The many posters on here who immediately blamed Israel for the attack on the hospital in Gaza, when the cause was uncertain (and it does now look as though it was a Hamas weapon, not an Israeli one). Also those (essentially the same people), who believed the figures Hamas released about the number of deaths.

    Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour; but it appears only Israel gets opprobrium for it. Even if it's unclear it was their fault.
    And even if Hamas are using the hospital as a military base as has been repeatedly demonstrated despite the (perhaps understandable) claims of the doctors working there.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Foxy said:

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.
    Even if it was not Israel who attacked that hospital?

    And I'm sorry: if you're vociferously angry about the hospital in Gaza, then you should be equally vociferously angry about the Russian attack: especially as the blame is not really in doubt.

    But there is silence from them. Because, I fear, to use your words, there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
    The unwillingness to do things is as a result of the Process State. When in doubt, add more process. Because it is free* and sounds morally correct.

    So, on house building, Labour will come up with a plan. Sounds like new towns are on the agenda. Then they will hit a wall of requirements in law to consider emissions, runoff etc etc. All very vague and poorly thought out.

    These will be used to tie up any progress. A large number of lawyers will be happy and the Supreme Court will end up hearing some cases.

    *No it isn’t.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Foxy said:

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.
    Even if it was not Israel who attacked that hospital?

    And I'm sorry: if you're vociferously angry about the hospital in Gaza, then you should be equally vociferously angry about the Russian attack: especially as the blame is not really in doubt.

    But there is silence from them. Because, I fear, to use your words, there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy...
    "Them" being who? Name names.

    I dislike these generalisms. It would be a bit like me saying 'all the Tories on here want to see Labour fail even if it means the country fail'. I could say that but I couldn't name a specific poster who'd actually said that.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Ghedebrav said:

    The models and MRPs for Scotland never quite passed the sniff test (as indeed the national ones did not). I wonder if less weight needs to be put on big monolithic convictions such as independence or leave/remain - they matter, but don’t trump other things people do also care a lot about, e.g. public services, tax, mortgages, corruption and incompetence in high office etc.

    Inverness [etc] seat did feel like a bit of a surprise nonetheless though, given the relative size of the swing. It’s one of many mini-stories of this election I’d like to know more about.

    The trouble is, from 2015 to 2019, independence really did trump everything else, and now it doesn't again. Possibly the SNP as Holyrood incumbent was a factor, along with implosion of the SNP as a party.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    In Scotland the models in particular simply failed to recognise that there is a huge swath of seats, approximately 30, which swing together. This caused the Labour wipe out in 2015 and the SNP wipe out this time.

    It is a serious issue for FPTP. The SNP have gone from one of the most efficient vote/ seat ratios to one almost as bad as Reform. Labour massively improved their efficiency across the whole country but especially in Scotland.

    The point is that it is possible for this to swing back in the same way if the Labour government starts to struggle. Complacency almost killed Scottish Labour and they would be wise not to take the current state of affairs for granted.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    edited July 9

    Foxy said:

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.
    Even if it was not Israel who attacked that hospital?

    And I'm sorry: if you're vociferously angry about the hospital in Gaza, then you should be equally vociferously angry about the Russian attack: especially as the blame is not really in doubt.

    But there is silence from them. Because, I fear, to use your words, there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy...
    Presumably you condemn the closure and forced evacuation of the Anglican hospital in Gaza, as highlighted by the archbishop of Canterbury yesterday?

    https://x.com/JustinWelby/status/1810354191594053643?t=ikJh06EJiLkD9uZfi5erZQ&s=19

    Every hospital in Gaza has now been attacked, and most are no longer functioning.

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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Which people are you talking about? Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour, whoever does it.
    The many posters on here who immediately blamed Israel for the attack on the hospital in Gaza, when the cause was uncertain (and it does now look as though it was a Hamas weapon, not an Israeli one). Also those (essentially the same people), who believed the figures Hamas released about the number of deaths.

    Attacking hospitals is appalling behaviour; but it appears only Israel gets opprobrium for it. Even if it's unclear it was their fault.
    I think you'll find that Russia gets pretty much universal opprobrium for attacking hospitals. As far as I can see, nobody is making any excuses for this. This is in stark contrast to the devastation wreaked on Gaza by Israel where time and time again, Israel is given given a free pass by some people. Yes, Hamas is also to blame, but you'd have to be a complete moron not to see that the vast majority of the destruction in Gaza is due to Israel's actions.

    As for the number of deaths in Gaza, that seems like ridiculous nit-picking on your part. No, we don't know the exact number of deaths - nobody can, especially since Israel refuses to let any journalists in and has a habit of killing them if they do get in. But it's pretty obvious that you don't cause that much damage to a heavily populated area without killing a lot of people.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    I'll applaud this new administration if it does that.

    It was one of my biggest disappointments with Sunak. The line must at least go to Crewe to have any real benefit, as well as Euston being done properly.
    I'm tempted to suggest my old idea of moving Parliament to Bradford and insisting HS2 becomes a loop

    London, Birmingham, Crewe, Manchester, Bradford, Leeds, Sheffield, Midland Hub, Birmingham, London

    Given the current estimate for refurbishing Parliament it's probably cheaper...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    If MPs are EVER going to move out of the HoC for refurbishment, now would be the time to do it, when nearly half of them have never been there before
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    FPT:
    theProle said:

    IMHO 5G isn't suitable for general roll out. 4G connections are usually reliable if you get one, 5G is temperamental as anything. The number of times I've been in city centres and had 5G signal and no actual data connection is embarrassing.

    I'm not sure what the point of faster mobile data rates is either for most users. Once you can stream 4K video reliably (which IIRC 4G will do), what else is there that really needs a faster connection?

    Most of the 5G that is currently deployed is what's known as NSA (non-standalone), and in effect a mobile is connected to both the 4G and 5G network at the same time, using the 5G where higher bandwidth is required. 5G NSA was done to allow incremental deployment of 5G alongside 4G, rather than requiring a large scale 5G SA (standalone) network to be deployed all at once. This does mean though that the signalling is more complicated, and the network can operate somewhat temperamentally. Also it means the 5G icon on your phone is quite often really misleading, showing 5G as available when you might actually be using a congested 4G basestation.

    When networks move to 5G SA it will operate essentially the same way as a 4G network does, but with better efficiency and performance (mainly due to more advanced modulation and efficient signalling), and offer more capacity where newer and wider bands are used.

    There's nothing wrong with 5G technology, we are simply in a transition.


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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Good morning everyone.

    Perhaps we need to be restricted to one tweet per day as well. Not for headers, obviously, where 27 tweets per header is parsimonious.

    I called Reform the "Famous Five". Like magic, from the Leeanderthal Man:

    Today's Plan.

    Cheese on toast in Ashfield then off to London with a suitcase full of common sense.

    Back in Parliament tomorrow morning with the Famous Five from @reformparty_uk

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1810251347062595629

    (I'm not spending today's photo on a picture of cheese on toast in a cafe I can't quite identify.)
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    I'll applaud this new administration if it does that.

    It was one of my biggest disappointments with Sunak. The line must at least go to Crewe to have any real benefit, as well as Euston being done properly.
    Separately the problem with Euston is that it's (as you probably know) multiple projects needing to be done at the same time. And the stupid bit is that we've merged the HS2 bit with the CrossRail 2 preparation and a Tfl capacity projects.

    Now they all make sense and there is a certain amount of logic in doing all 3 projects at the same time but I don't think anyone has explained it so people see a vast bill for work at Euston without understanding the full scale of what is required.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Royale, we'll see if it ever gets as 'far' as Leeds.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,893
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    I'll applaud this new administration if it does that.

    It was one of my biggest disappointments with Sunak. The line must at least go to Crewe to have any real benefit, as well as Euston being done properly.
    Separately the problem with Euston is that it's (as you probably know) multiple projects needing to be done at the same time. And the stupid bit is that we've merged the HS2 bit with the CrossRail 2 preparation and a Tfl capacity projects.

    Now they all make sense and there is a certain amount of logic in doing all 3 projects at the same time but I don't think anyone has explained it so people see a vast bill for work at Euston without understanding the full scale of what is required.
    Take it through to St Pancras, as originally envisaged. I understand the local MP is a committed opponent of nimbyism.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    edited July 9

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    This is the bit that goes past my back yard, but I'm in favour of it anyway.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    In a highly competitive list cancelling HS2 was right up there for the Sunak government in terms of worst decisions.
    You should be blaming the greed and incompetence that surrounded HS2 for a decade before Sunak became PM. Or even CoE.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Scott_xP said:

    If MPs are EVER going to move out of the HoC for refurbishment, now would be the time to do it, when nearly half of them have never been there before

    That would have required the Government planning a temporary escape (at the latest) in 2022 - and let's be blunt thinking ahead was well beyond the capacity of that Government even though the issue was obvious on a daily basis.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Mr. Royale, we'll see if it ever gets as 'far' as Leeds.

    Leeds is interesting because Leeds station is now totally at capacity...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    In a highly competitive list cancelling HS2 was right up there for the Sunak government in terms of worst decisions.
    You should be blaming the greed and incompetence that surrounded HS2 for a decade before Sunak became PM. Or even CoE.
    I lot of the blame for the costs rests on the head of the former MP for Chesham and Amersham and look at the gratitude that waste of £10bn gold plating a set of tunnels did for the tory party (they lost the byelection).

    The funny bit is that the air vents look worse and are way more visible than the original cutting would have looked like...
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,524

    Foxy said:

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.
    Even if it was not Israel who attacked that hospital?

    And I'm sorry: if you're vociferously angry about the hospital in Gaza, then you should be equally vociferously angry about the Russian attack: especially as the blame is not really in doubt.

    But there is silence from them. Because, I fear, to use your words, there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy...
    "there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy"

    for example? I mean on PB, because it sounds like that is what you are talking about. (Of course there are people in the whole world who think that).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. eek, politicians could go crazy and spend on transport in a city that isn't London.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    I'll be watching for claims as to how many "disabled MPs" there are claimed to be in this Parliament.

    Back in 2018 there were fabricated stories spread about "just 6 disabled MPs". which was generated by misinformation from campaigners (not fact-checked even by the Daily Politics; I challenged them and they said "no time to do it.") who wanted attention, then pretending *they* represented all the ~20% of disabled people in the population.

    A constant issue - sometimes the only "disabled" people are seen as wheelchair users, sometimes it is only the faction who dominate a local lobby group, or where the experience of different disabled people goes against the measure that is desired by the first group.

    The figure of "6" has become a still-referred-to standard number by media self-referencing since 2018 - eg a "fact" link in the G or the T refers back to an old G or T article where they ballsed it up last time; mistakes or lies self-perpetuate.

    Here's one from June, where the G where Lucy Webster was slightly less inaccurate than usual, and draws a distinction:

    There were, in fact, just five in 2021. Or, at least, only five who publicly identified as disabled. Even assuming there were a few more disabled MPs who hadn’t declared themselves as such, it is an extremely poor showing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/03/disabled-mps-uk-politics-election-craig-mackinlay

    The actual number was at least 40-50, from public sources, when I checked. The "5" did not even include the PM Theresa May, who had Type I diabetes and a sensor on her arm.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
    The best way to find growth is to build roads and then let development happen along the sides of the roads.

    This can be seen by driving along any road built in recent decades.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    DavidL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    The models and MRPs for Scotland never quite passed the sniff test (as indeed the national ones did not). I wonder if less weight needs to be put on big monolithic convictions such as independence or leave/remain - they matter, but don’t trump other things people do also care a lot about, e.g. public services, tax, mortgages, corruption and incompetence in high office etc.

    Inverness [etc] seat did feel like a bit of a surprise nonetheless though, given the relative size of the swing. It’s one of many mini-stories of this election I’d like to know more about.

    The trouble is, from 2015 to 2019, independence really did trump everything else, and now it doesn't again. Possibly the SNP as Holyrood incumbent was a factor, along with implosion of the SNP as a party.
    That implosion is gathering pace. There will be hundreds of redundancies from the SNP in terms of office staff, research staff and general hangers on as the Short money dries up. They will effectively disappear from the Westminster scene after losing their right to PMQ questions.

    They still have Holyrood but that may only be for another 2 years and the clock is ticking. People are blaming Swinney, and he is the opposite of inspirational, but he was left with an appalling legacy of incompetence and denial from the Sturgeon/Yousaf era. The parallels with Sunak and the Boris/Truss era write themselves. So far, there is little evidence of Swinney making a decisive break, just as Sunak failed to do.

    What they need to do is focus on delivering devolved government in Scotland, especially in health and education. This will not be easy.
    They've got no money - having redirected some of the education budget* into NHS wages...

    * this is based on a random story I heard about Glasgow schools having serious budget issues so unable to hit teacher staff ratios to qualify for some money. The idea that one half the SNP intentionally screwed a different set of SNP people may be taken as read..
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
    The unwillingness to do things is as a result of the Process State. When in doubt, add more process. Because it is free* and sounds morally correct.

    So, on house building, Labour will come up with a plan. Sounds like new towns are on the agenda. Then they will hit a wall of requirements in law to consider emissions, runoff etc etc. All very vague and poorly thought out.

    These will be used to tie up any progress. A large number of lawyers will be happy and the Supreme Court will end up hearing some cases.

    *No it isn’t.
    All very vague and poorly thought out.

    Or perhaps all very vague and deliberately so.

    Keep things vague and it creates more demands for lawyers and consultants.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    I'll applaud this new administration if it does that.

    It was one of my biggest disappointments with Sunak. The line must at least go to Crewe to have any real benefit, as well as Euston being done properly.
    Separately the problem with Euston is that it's (as you probably know) multiple projects needing to be done at the same time. And the stupid bit is that we've merged the HS2 bit with the CrossRail 2 preparation and a Tfl capacity projects.

    Now they all make sense and there is a certain amount of logic in doing all 3 projects at the same time but I don't think anyone has explained it so people see a vast bill for work at Euston without understanding the full scale of what is required.
    Take it through to St Pancras, as originally envisaged. I understand the local MP is a committed opponent of nimbyism.
    If you wanted to be really ambitious, you’d combine the three stations underground into one massive “London North Terminus”, with a tunnel linking HS1 and HS2 together, as well as walkways between the stations.

    There would be plenty of other services to relocate though, and not sure how many basements there are in the library that you’d need to miss!
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I'm slightly (un)surprised that the people who talked about the explosion at a Gaza hospital are not voicing their anger at Russia's heinous attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. It's not as if there's any genuine doubt about who performed this atrocity.

    Even our pro-Putin trolls don't defend the missile attack on a children's cancer hospital. We can take it as read that everyone is depressed and angry at Russian actions.

    When it comes to Gaza though we do have people who think any IDF action is fine and dandy.
    Even if it was not Israel who attacked that hospital?

    And I'm sorry: if you're vociferously angry about the hospital in Gaza, then you should be equally vociferously angry about the Russian attack: especially as the blame is not really in doubt.

    But there is silence from them. Because, I fear, to use your words, there are people who think any Russian action is fine and dandy...
    Presumably you condemn the closure and forced evacuation of the Anglican hospital in Gaza, as highlighted by the archbishop of Canterbury yesterday?

    https://x.com/JustinWelby/status/1810354191594053643?t=ikJh06EJiLkD9uZfi5erZQ&s=19

    Every hospital in Gaza has now been attacked, and most are no longer functioning.

    We are in a news mess. And there is only one way out of it. Which is a return to a rigid separation of these things: facts, values, prioritisation and opinion.

    This is especially hard with Israel/Gaza and allied matters, as there is hardly such a thing as an agreed fact.

    At the moment media and opinion on all sides pretend that their great concern is human suffering. This is false. If it were true Sudan, to take one egregious example, would be full of journalists and camera crews.

    The human suffering thing is an instrument in a battle about Who? Whom?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Mr. eek, politicians could go crazy and spend on transport in a city that isn't London.

    Shall we just say that Leeds and Manchester Piccadilly are examples of you don't want to start from here...

    At least in Manchester there are sensible options, the sanest one i've seen for Leeds is a two tier station and a lot of bridges..
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 9
    The biggest MRP misses (As at the 26th June model) for Yougov were as follows.

    47.34% Leicester South
    45.35% Birmingham Perry Barr
    40.39% Edinburgh West
    34.87% Ilford North
    33.34% Blackburn
    33.21% Dewsbury and Batley
    31.57% Slough
    30.12% Rochdale
    30.09% Bradford West
    29.65% Birmingham Ladywood

    OK So they didn't see the muslim Labour vote collapse, but how on God's green earth did they ever ever have Edinburgh West going SNP by 9%. Checking the final MRP it was a Lib Dem hold by 6%, still absolutely miles out and a bigger miss than Leicester East was in the last but one MRP (25.4% out vs 23.5%)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Pulpstar said:

    The biggest MRP misses (As at the 26th June model) for Yougov were as follows.

    47.34% Leicester South
    45.35% Birmingham Perry Barr
    40.39% Edinburgh West
    34.87% Ilford North
    33.34% Blackburn
    33.21% Dewsbury and Batley
    31.57% Slough
    30.12% Rochdale
    30.09% Bradford West
    29.65% Birmingham Ladywood

    OK So they didn't see the muslim Labour vote collapse, but how on God's green earth did they ever ever have Edinburgh West going SNP by 9%. Checking the final MRP it was a Lib Dem hold by 6%, still absolutely miles out and a bigger miss than Leicester East was in the last but one MRP (25.4% out vs 23.5%)

    Is religion not part of the equation with these polls? I thought the whole idea is that they take a big sample so that they can look at trends with demographics.
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 1,011
    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    Not much point to the electrification when the freight operators are currently mothballing electric locos and using diesel under the wires because the electric locos are too expensive to run.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    F1: Ferrari chassis chap joins new recruit from Mercedes at Aston Martin:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c0w45knx10ro

    Given Ferrari's recent struggles, they might be well rid.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 9

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
    The unwillingness to do things is as a result of the Process State. When in doubt, add more process. Because it is free* and sounds morally correct.

    So, on house building, Labour will come up with a plan. Sounds like new towns are on the agenda. Then they will hit a wall of requirements in law to consider emissions, runoff etc etc. All very vague and poorly thought out.

    These will be used to tie up any progress. A large number of lawyers will be happy and the Supreme Court will end up hearing some cases.

    *No it isn’t.
    All very vague and poorly thought out.

    Or perhaps all very vague and deliberately so.

    Keep things vague and it creates more demands for lawyers and consultants.
    The exact same forces are going to clog up Labour's housebuilding that prevented the Tories deporting anyone.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The biggest MRP misses (As at the 26th June model) for Yougov were as follows.

    47.34% Leicester South
    45.35% Birmingham Perry Barr
    40.39% Edinburgh West
    34.87% Ilford North
    33.34% Blackburn
    33.21% Dewsbury and Batley
    31.57% Slough
    30.12% Rochdale
    30.09% Bradford West
    29.65% Birmingham Ladywood

    OK So they didn't see the muslim Labour vote collapse, but how on God's green earth did they ever ever have Edinburgh West going SNP by 9%. Checking the final MRP it was a Lib Dem hold by 6%, still absolutely miles out and a bigger miss than Leicester East was in the last but one MRP (25.4% out vs 23.5%)

    Is religion not part of the equation with these polls? I thought the whole idea is that they take a big sample so that they can look at trends with demographics.
    Whatever they did it wasn't very good on picking up the threat on Labour's left/Gaza :D
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    In a highly competitive list cancelling HS2 was right up there for the Sunak government in terms of worst decisions.
    You should be blaming the greed and incompetence that surrounded HS2 for a decade before Sunak became PM. Or even CoE.
    So you're saying the Tories fucked it up, and the Tories cancelled it.
    I'm not seeing that as a great comeback.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. B, to be fair, the Leclerc failure was down to strategy. Shifting to inters on the lighter initial bout of rain right after he passed Stroll was foolish. He could've easily finished 6th, right behind Sainz.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    Yesssss. Inject it into my veins.

    Not running out HS2 to Crewe when Sunak cancelled it was the worst kind of economic vandalism. At least now we will be able to actually use the track that has been built out to full effect.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Perhaps we need to be restricted to one tweet per day as well. Not for headers, obviously, where 27 tweets per header is parsimonious.

    I called Reform the "Famous Five". Like magic, from the Leeanderthal Man:

    Today's Plan.

    Cheese on toast in Ashfield then off to London with a suitcase full of common sense.

    Back in Parliament tomorrow morning with the Famous Five from @reformparty_uk

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1810251347062595629

    30p Lee has become a travelling salesman of Thom Paine's great work ?
    Along with the collected Enid Blyton (which TBF is more his level).

  • Options
    Andy Burnham is back pretending he knows anything about how to win elections.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Levelling up is dead - the department is once again called Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 9
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The biggest MRP misses (As at the 26th June model) for Yougov were as follows.

    47.34% Leicester South
    45.35% Birmingham Perry Barr
    40.39% Edinburgh West
    34.87% Ilford North
    33.34% Blackburn
    33.21% Dewsbury and Batley
    31.57% Slough
    30.12% Rochdale
    30.09% Bradford West
    29.65% Birmingham Ladywood

    OK So they didn't see the muslim Labour vote collapse, but how on God's green earth did they ever ever have Edinburgh West going SNP by 9%. Checking the final MRP it was a Lib Dem hold by 6%, still absolutely miles out and a bigger miss than Leicester East was in the last but one MRP (25.4% out vs 23.5%)

    Is religion not part of the equation with these polls? I thought the whole idea is that they take a big sample so that they can look at trends with demographics.
    Whatever they did it wasn't very good on picking up the threat on Labour's left/Gaza :D
    Here's Labour's Leicester South majority as forecast by other pollsters/models

    Lab 49.8 Lab 45% Lab 59.1% Lab 41% Lab 53.33% Lab 57.99% Labour 66.60% Lab 27.17 (Survation, Greens 2ND) LAB 33.9

    YG / NS / IPSOS / Savanta / Focaldata / More in Common / Survation / EC
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    And a decision needs to be made soon on Thames Water.

    I think given the recent displays by management, there's only one good option, and that's not a private sector solution. Government should step in before (as I predict) the regulator folds and bails out shareholders at the expense of bill payers.

    Thames Water to tap investors for funds as it will run out of cash by next June
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/09/thames-water-funds-debt
    ..The slow-burn crisis at Thames Water stepped up in March, when it said shareholders – which include the pension funds USS and Omers – had U-turned on £500m of promised funding, claiming Ofwat had made the company “uninvestable”.

    The Guardian has since revealed that Thames’s board approved a £150m dividend just hours before the announcement...
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,893
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Perhaps we need to be restricted to one tweet per day as well. Not for headers, obviously, where 27 tweets per header is parsimonious.

    I called Reform the "Famous Five". Like magic, from the Leeanderthal Man:

    Today's Plan.

    Cheese on toast in Ashfield then off to London with a suitcase full of common sense.

    Back in Parliament tomorrow morning with the Famous Five from @reformparty_uk

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1810251347062595629

    30p Lee has become a travelling salesman of Thom Paine's great work ?
    Along with the collected Enid Blyton (which TBF is more his level).

    Only one of the original Five was a dog.
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    On satellite, no it will not be replacing 4G/5G masts ever. Number one it cannot sustain the same speeds for many people at once, number two, the latency makes it unusable for voice calls and other uses. So no, it won't.

    As for, "we don't need more coverage", in 2024 you cannot take a train in the UK and hold a call. This is totally unacceptable, this should be common-place on every line as a start. So yes, we need more coverage and more masts to support it.

    As for "we don't need masts in places with five people", again this is wrong. They are required anyway for the ESN and so they should also be used to provide coverage for the MNOs. To their credit the Tories did make this a priority under the SRN.

    There is no reason we cannot have close to 100% geographic coverage. Our neighbours in the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway compete on a much higher level.

    If people hate masts, they should support my reforms to have much taller ones. Then we would need far fewer. Right now rural areas are left behind because masts cannot be built because the locals keep rejecting them, I would overrule these in every case, if they need to be hidden fine but they should be allowed, not rejected.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Mr. B, to be fair, the Leclerc failure was down to strategy. Shifting to inters on the lighter initial bout of rain right after he passed Stroll was foolish. He could've easily finished 6th, right behind Sainz.

    Ferrari have just said that they've wasted the last three months development, going in the wrong direction.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:
    I couldn't read the whole (paywalled) article but reading what I could see on on the front page image, the headline seems to be typically atrocious reporting from the Telegraph. AIUI it's the economist Tony Smith saying this not Blair and the message is 'unless growth and productivity improve'.

    Again, none of this is very insightful - that we face a major demographic challenge is hardly new news.
    The report is by Tom Smith, published by the Blair Institute, and Blair is making a speech today about it.

    Agree that it’s hardly news that the next few years will be difficult.
    We desperately need to find growth - which means building things and creating infrastructure -things that have been blocked for the past decade due to the previous Tory Governments unwillingness to do things..
    The unwillingness to do things is as a result of the Process State. When in doubt, add more process. Because it is free* and sounds morally correct.

    So, on house building, Labour will come up with a plan. Sounds like new towns are on the agenda. Then they will hit a wall of requirements in law to consider emissions, runoff etc etc. All very vague and poorly thought out.

    These will be used to tie up any progress. A large number of lawyers will be happy and the Supreme Court will end up hearing some cases.

    *No it isn’t.
    All very vague and poorly thought out.

    Or perhaps all very vague and deliberately so.

    Keep things vague and it creates more demands for lawyers and consultants.
    The exact same forces are going to clog up Labour's housebuilding that prevented the Tories deporting anyone.
    Indeed. Governments need to be measured on what they actually deliver between elections, rather than what they promise. Passing laws is not building houses or stopping small boats.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    Andy Burnham is back pretending he knows anything about how to win elections.

    Or 'quality' in the NHS...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 9
    Nigelb said:

    And a decision needs to be made soon on Thames Water.

    I think given the recent displays by management, there's only one good option, and that's not a private sector solution. Government should step in before (as I predict) the regulator folds and bails out shareholders at the expense of bill payers.

    Thames Water to tap investors for funds as it will run out of cash by next June
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/09/thames-water-funds-debt
    ..The slow-burn crisis at Thames Water stepped up in March, when it said shareholders – which include the pension funds USS and Omers – had U-turned on £500m of promised funding, claiming Ofwat had made the company “uninvestable”.

    The Guardian has since revealed that Thames’s board approved a £150m dividend just hours before the announcement...

    Shareholders need to be wiped out & the trustees of the good ship USS Enterprise barred for life from ever managing a pension fund again.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    It looks like the polls overestimated Labour in England and understated the Tories and LDs but in Scotland they overestimated the SNP and understated Labour
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    BYD agrees $1bn deal to build electric vehicle plant in Turkey
    https://x.com/FT/status/1810377729902071853
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    In a highly competitive list cancelling HS2 was right up there for the Sunak government in terms of worst decisions.
    You should be blaming the greed and incompetence that surrounded HS2 for a decade before Sunak became PM. Or even CoE.
    So you're saying the Tories fucked it up, and the Tories cancelled it.
    I'm not seeing that as a great comeback.
    I'm saying that every 'world beating' or 'biggest in Europe' project inevitably ends in going multiple times over budget and multiple years beyond predicted.

    Consultants and lawyers do get rich though which seems to be the prime purpose of such projects.

    Any government which proceeds with such projects deserves the blame which inevitably results.

    So yes the Conservatives do deserve blame for the HS2 disaster - not for cancelling it but for starting it in the first place.

    And any HS2 cheerleader who wonders why other infrastructure hasn't been invested in might remember that the money was instead spent on HS2.
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    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 150
    Nigelb said:

    And a decision needs to be made soon on Thames Water.

    I think given the recent displays by management, there's only one good option, and that's not a private sector solution. Government should step in before (as I predict) the regulator folds and bails out shareholders at the expense of bill payers.

    Thames Water to tap investors for funds as it will run out of cash by next June
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/09/thames-water-funds-debt
    ..The slow-burn crisis at Thames Water stepped up in March, when it said shareholders – which include the pension funds USS and Omers – had U-turned on £500m of promised funding, claiming Ofwat had made the company “uninvestable”.

    The Guardian has since revealed that Thames’s board approved a £150m dividend just hours before the announcement...

    A reminder that the privatised water companies have delivered on clean drinking water and dramatically improved rivers and bathing areas. The fact that they seem to be in some cases run by the most devious tax dodging cretins doesnt seem to have interfered with that. The River Thames itself is considered one of the cleanest rivers to run through a major city in the world.
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    Andy Burnham is back pretending he knows anything about how to win elections.

    Or 'quality' in the NHS...
    I do wish he'd go away. He's missed his chance to lead the Labour Party and never will. He's been consistently wrong on everything since 2010 and on top of that has no actual views, he is like a weather-vane.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. B, sadly, that can happen (see also Aston Martin). But a 6th place finish was eminently achievable for Leclerc and strategy put him into 14th.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Rejoice, Hurrah.

    As I predicted on election day or the day after, it looks like the Lichfield to Crewe bit of HS2 is going to be back on in short order.


    "Rail minister appointment fuels hopes of HS2 revival
    Network Rail chief Lord Hendy is likely to be an advocate for extending the network"

    "His appointment as rail minister may represent the best chance of saving elements of the scheme, including a link from the Midlands to Crewe that would allow full formations of HS2 trains to travel at top speed through to Manchester, leading figures in the sector said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/09/keir-starmer-rail-minister-lord-hendy-fuels-hs2-hopes/

    It will come down to whether Lord Hendy can gets things through the Department of Transport

    But he's clueful enough to know how to get HS2 back on track and to kick off a number of quick win projects. For instance there are 60 miles of track that were they electrified opens up 2million track mile of freight a year shifting to electric...
    I'll applaud this new administration if it does that.

    It was one of my biggest disappointments with Sunak. The line must at least go to Crewe to have any real benefit, as well as Euston being done properly.
    Separately the problem with Euston is that it's (as you probably know) multiple projects needing to be done at the same time. And the stupid bit is that we've merged the HS2 bit with the CrossRail 2 preparation and a Tfl capacity projects.

    Now they all make sense and there is a certain amount of logic in doing all 3 projects at the same time but I don't think anyone has explained it so people see a vast bill for work at Euston without understanding the full scale of what is required.
    Take it through to St Pancras, as originally envisaged. I understand the local MP is a committed opponent of nimbyism.
    If you wanted to be really ambitious, you’d combine the three stations underground into one massive “London North Terminus”, with a tunnel linking HS1 and HS2 together, as well as walkways between the stations.

    There would be plenty of other services to relocate though, and not sure how many basements there are in the library that you’d need to miss!
    Five levels of basement, going down 25m. :smile:

    https://blogs.bl.uk/living-knowledge/2023/07/50-facts-about-the-british-library.html
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 9

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    Perhaps we need to be restricted to one tweet per day as well. Not for headers, obviously, where 27 tweets per header is parsimonious.

    I called Reform the "Famous Five". Like magic, from the Leeanderthal Man:

    Today's Plan.

    Cheese on toast in Ashfield then off to London with a suitcase full of common sense.

    Back in Parliament tomorrow morning with the Famous Five from @reformparty_uk

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1810251347062595629

    30p Lee has become a travelling salesman of Thom Paine's great work ?
    Along with the collected Enid Blyton (which TBF is more his level).

    Only one of the original Five was a dog.
    Five Members of Congress drafting the Constitution is a bit Trumpish, even for Farage !

    (Still working on the Hi-de-Hi Party.)
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Andy Burnham is back pretending he knows anything about how to win elections.

    Or 'quality' in the NHS...
    I do wish he'd go away. He's missed his chance to lead the Labour Party and never will. He's been consistently wrong on everything since 2010 and on top of that has no actual views, he is like a weather-vane.
    I always think he's a bit like a party political ad for a politician, with no actual politician underneath.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Omnium said:

    Andy Burnham is back pretending he knows anything about how to win elections.

    Or 'quality' in the NHS...
    I do wish he'd go away. He's missed his chance to lead the Labour Party and never will. He's been consistently wrong on everything since 2010 and on top of that has no actual views, he is like a weather-vane.
    I always think he's a bit like a party political ad for a politician, with no actual politician underneath.
    He deserved plaudits for his work on the Hillsborough Inquiry, which started with him being roundly booed by 40,000 people at Anfield when turning up at a memorial as the sports minister, but he does seem rather an empty suit apart from that.

    What can he point to as achievements in Manchester while he’s been mayor?
This discussion has been closed.