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The fine line between a hung parliament and a total Tory wipeout – politicalbetting.com
The fine line between a hung parliament and a total Tory wipeout – politicalbetting.com
The PM has seized on our research suggesting 130k votes (in theory) separate a 200-seat Labour majority from a hung parliamentBut I should also point out that 200k going the other way could leave the Tories with ZERO seats. Welcome to marginal Britain. https://t.co/rmc0lvFjGZ pic.twitter.com/jZxsWeG2fw
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Edit. No fifth. Like Tory/LD/Reform/AN Other
While it's very likely a loser, I think backing 2025 or later at 34 is pretty good value. I'm trying for 40 atm.
This bet would have won (in rather different circumstances) in 2005.
It depends on exactly how the Tories decide to tear themselves apart after election. I don't think that "semi sensibly have a long conversation and try to decide which way we're going before rushing into a contest" is only a couple of % chance.
Hmm maybe I'm starting to talk myself out of it...
BTW I was going to write I find baffling but went with found out of laziness because it was autosuggested. So in a sense AI takeover of the site has begun.
Three TCDRs:
Those mega majorities Corbyn won in some places in 2017 were stupid wasted votes- Starmer is better off without them.
There will be few, if any, safe Conservative seats after this.
There will be lots of fairly safe Labour seats.
Event Start Time
04 July 2024, 07:00
Win Only Market
MARKET INFORMATION
For further information please see Rules & Regs.
Will Angela Rayner be Deputy Labour Leader at the next UK General Election?
This market will be settled based on Angela Rayner's role within the Labour Party at the start of voting on the day of the next UK General Election
labour.org.uk along with any official announcements from the Labour Party will be used as result source for the market.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.227695405
MI5 wouldn't be able to steal a bribe from Donald Trump.
https://www.bild.de/news/inland/faschistischer-torjubel-das-bedeutet-der-6685064618c33d086d7b9280
But more importantly than celebrating goals with extremist anti-semitic shit, the fans are annoying me personally by driving around all night beeping their horns, keeping everyone awake just because Turkey won a football game on the other side of the country. Acceptable-ish if your team wins the final, not if it's just a group game. Especially when it's hot and humid so everyone has their windows open and the next day is a normal work/school day.
I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs
I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter
For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night
"Expected" is doing a lot of work there. It seems to me that the Times has confused a statistical model with the real result.
What I suspect will happen in practice is a lot of those that the model shows with small majorities will actually have fairly large majorities. Models are showing quite a few seats with candidates winning in the low 30s or even high 20s, with a bunching between three or four parties. In most places (though not all) that just won't play out. There will normally be two fairly clear contenders, and others - though not wiped out - will be some way back. In a lot of places, one party or other will run away with it a bit based on a better organisation or very strong candidate.
I might be wrong on that. But the "welcome to marginal Britain" write-up based on comparing real past results with statistical models for this time is quite lazy. It's reading a lot into something that may not, and indeed probably won't, happen.
Richard Osman and Marina Hyde on what political podcasts do better than traditional political television (also football).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY0zaP-zpXk
On that basis I'm looking forward to the goodies under the 2024 socialist Christmas tree.
The Democrats need to act fast on Biden.
I really should, perhaps. After my success with the French pigeons
I really wish we had a decent butcher's in Camden, selling game. If I want game I generally have to go to Selfridge's Food Hall across the park, which is a faff
Every time somebody says 'Labour have underperformed here' I'm going to down one whisky.
For the sake of both my liver and my pocket I'm hoping BJO will have nodded off before I wake up!
Not sure it's a massively intuitive way to visualise. But it does highlight my point about 2024 being based on a statistical model, because that sort of evening out of the cone is exactly what a statistical model is likely to do. Reality is likely to be different.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1808495693113307439
Watch out for shot (but there may not be any in the meat) and for the bony tendons in the lower leg - just suck the meat off those and put them to the sides of the plate.
We all know why the polls have been all over the place - but don't those explanations apply almost as much to the exit poll? It's not going to poll all 650 seats, so the seats selected inevitably won't perfectly model all the relevant influences in the ~520 they won't select. The margin of error even in most of the ~130 they do select will be greater than in previous exit polls. And we won't know how far the exit poll will be out, or in what direction, till the counts are all done. Maybe, indeed, if the postal vote problem turns out to be big enough, not for however long it takes for any offended party to take their beef to a definitive court hearing.
Right now, we can be 99.9% sure that Labour will get a majority over the other parties combined, that the postal vote problem won't change that and that - even after recounts - we'll know both things by Friday. But I doubt whether the exit poll will come anywhere near as close to getting the detail right as we've come to expect - and maybe even not close enough to predict the leading Opposition party.
Could it be that the best value bet you could find will be betting on whichever politician says "if that exit poll's right, I'll eat my hat". Because the poll will probably turn out wronger than we've seen for years - so that politician's hat could go uneaten without anyone accusing him/her of welching.
Who might give me odds on that?
If you do get your hands on a bird on the feather then either pluck it (shocker, huge mess) or breast it which is done in seconds. Then put in a freezer bag, label it, and freeze it.
Then have it on election night.
Edit and then a million recipes, casserole, pies, etc but I prefer it roasted as is.
*a stupendously simple dish to make, and delish - as long as you use fresh ginger.
Yes, one of the great things about game is that it often makes a great meal for one. Guineafowl (yes I know it's likely farmed) is delicious and just the right size, with some leftovers for a sandwich, and so forth
My local M&S used to do venison steaks which were YUM, but now they've gone. Grrr
Surely Biden will see sense and honourably retire? - then everyone can say "what a great man, sacrificed his career for America, blah de blah" - all a load of twaddle but that's what people will say
If he literally has to be gouged out of the Oval Office by a painful and public donor-strike he will spend his last years being hated (likewise his insane family). It's ridic. Just quit, you stubborn old coot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx6T_5qQkPQ
24mins
[it broadly outlines why I'm not looking forward to a Labour government]
Nonetheless it was blinkin' annoying at the time.
https://www.ft.com/content/0c8187b3-aec4-43cd-a434-5c60833dddcd
Edit - Marks will do pheasant breasts in season if not try field and flower online or an online game merchant
We should get an indication of how well the exit poll is performing fairly early on - the bigger the error, the more obvious it should be from the early results.
In his budget speech Jeremy Hunt made the following statement. “The average earner in the UK now has the lowest effective personal tax rate since 1975 — and one that is lower than in America, France, Germany or any G7 country.”
Given that the overall tax burden — the tax take as a fraction of national income — is reaching record levels, it is a remarkable claim. I have neither heard nor seen much commentary on it. Paradoxically that might well be because it is demonstrably true. Average earners really are facing lower levels of direct taxation than they have in 50 years. And it is from average earners that higher-tax countries in western Europe get much of their extra revenue......
.....Our reliance on top earners has continued to grow. That top 1 per cent pay 29 per cent of all income tax now, up from 25 per cent in 2010 and 21 per cent at the turn of the century. Whisper it quietly, but this Tory government has taken a serious chunk out of the incomes of the 1 per cent.
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-tax-burden-high-when-most-us-are-taxed-so-low