We all know why the polls have been all over the place - but don't those explanations apply almost as much to the exit poll? It's not going to poll all 650 seats, so the seats selected inevitably won't perfectly model all the relevant influences in the ~520 they won't select. The margin of error even in most of the ~130 they do select will be greater than in previous exit polls. And we won't know how far the exit poll will be out, or in what direction, till the counts are all done. Maybe, indeed, if the postal vote problem turns out to be big enough, not for however long it takes for any offended party to take their beef to a definitive court hearing.
Right now, we can be 99.9% sure that Labour will get a majority over the other parties combined, that the postal vote problem won't change that and that - even after recounts - we'll know both things by Friday. But I doubt whether the exit poll will come anywhere near as close to getting the detail right as we've come to expect - and maybe even not close enough to predict the leading Opposition party.
Could it be that the best value bet you could find will be betting on whichever politician says "if that exit poll's right, I'll eat my hat". Because the poll will probably turn out wronger than we've seen for years - so that politician's hat could go uneaten without anyone accusing him/her of welching.
Who might give me odds on that?
The exit poll will have a somewhat wider margin of error than normal, if the prediction of more marginal seats is correct. But otherwise I think it will be fine.
I'd be absolutely stunned if it's more than 30 seats out.
I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs
I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter
For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night
Pheasant out of the freezer has to be.
Is frozen pheasant nice? Or are you jiking? I have no idea, never cooked it in any form
I really should, perhaps. After my success with the French pigeons
I really wish we had a decent butcher's in Camden, selling game. If I want game I generally have to go to Selfridge's Food Hall across the park, which is a faff
Yes it's nice. Don't keep it too long, that said. Many shoots are super eager to give birds away and often have them available on the road for anyone to take but in London you might be reduced to specialist butchers.
If you do get your hands on a bird on the feather then either pluck it (shocker, huge mess) or breast it which is done in seconds. Then put in a freezer bag, label it, and freeze it.
Then have it on election night.
Edit and then a million recipes, casserole, pies, etc but I prefer it roasted as is.
Yes roast game is the best. Or fried for venison steaks. This is a grand recipe with leeks and mushroomy sauce and spinachy mash, mmm
Has Biden recorded his interview for Friday yet? If not could it be his tearful exit interview?
Resigns the office next week, Kamala sworn in. Pledged Biden delegates fall in behind her. Time for her to nominate a running mate before the convention.
It seems to be a done deal and the only question is how to choreograph it.
Yes, that's my take
Surely Biden will see sense and honourably retire? - then everyone can say "what a great man, sacrificed his career for America, blah de blah" - all a load of twaddle but that's what people will say
If he literally has to be gouged out of the Oval Office by a painful and public donor-strike he will spend his last years being hated (likewise his insane family). It's ridic. Just quit, you stubborn old coot
The optics are better if there's a decent interval between that debate and hoisting the white flag, especially if some other excuse can be concocted.
But it's one of those things, like the fall of Maggie, where what we're told and what's happening are very possibly very different.
The choreography matters, and takes time to set up.
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
It seems to be a done deal and the only question is how to choreograph it.
Yes, that's my take
Surely Biden will see sense and honourably retire? - then everyone can say "what a great man, sacrificed his career for America, blah de blah" - all a load of twaddle but that's what people will say
If he literally has to be gouged out of the Oval Office by a painful and public donor-strike he will spend his last years being hated (likewise his insane family). It's ridic. Just quit, you stubborn old coot
The optics are better if there's a decent interval between that debate and hoisting the white flag, especially if some other excuse can be concocted.
But it's one of those things, like the fall of Maggie, where what we're told and what's happening are very possibly very different.
The choreography matters, and takes time to set up.
The most humane method of despatch would be him having some fake NEW medical emergency, then they can pretend he's not gaga, and so forth, to save blushes all round. But it has to happen pretty soon
I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs
I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter
For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night
Pheasant out of the freezer has to be.
Is frozen pheasant nice? Or are you jiking? I have no idea, never cooked it in any form
I really should, perhaps. After my success with the French pigeons
I really wish we had a decent butcher's in Camden, selling game. If I want game I generally have to go to Selfridge's Food Hall across the park, which is a faff
I stack the freezer with pheasant during shooting season. A roasted pheasant makes a lovely dinner for one
Yes, one of the great things about game is that it often makes a great meal for one. Guineafowl (yes I know it's likely farmed) is delicious and just the right size, with some leftovers for a sandwich, and so forth
My local M&S used to do venison steaks which were YUM, but now they've gone. Grrr
Apparently some pheasant is too old to roast and I have never woprked out how to deal with this but then we tend to casserole rather than roast anyway.
That's an issue with grouse (and there's incredibly arcane procedures involving sticking matches into their arse to determine age) much less with pheasant, the huge majority of which will have been put down as poults in the year they are shot.
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm deeply invested - as much as 2019 - but in the most unexpected way. I want the Tories to do really really really badly
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
Potentially up to 11 final polls from active players yet to report on Wiki:
BMG, Deltapoll, Focaldata, IPSOS, More in Common, Norstat, Opinium, Savanta, We Think, Whitestone, YouGov
BMG have confirmed one for later today Delta - probably Focaldata - MRP this PM Ipsos - tomorrow am MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 Norstat - probably Opinium - confirmed for later today Savanta - no idea We Think - this pm I believe Whitestone - probably YG- MRP 5pm
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm deeply invested - as much as 2019 - but in the most unexpected way. I want the Tories to do really really really badly
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
That's true, you might be back in on that wager. We'll see.
Did you finally confirm your vote yet? I'm collating a list of PB CON>LAB Switchers, and had you down as a ?
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm extremely nervous. Despite the polling. I am insured up to my eyeballs but it's not helping much.
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm deeply invested - as much as 2019 - but in the most unexpected way. I want the Tories to do really really really badly
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
That's true, you might be back in on that wager. We'll see.
Did you finally confirm your vote yet? I'm collating a list of PB CON>LAB Switchers, and had you down as a ?
Potentially up to 11 final polls from active players yet to report on Wiki:
BMG, Deltapoll, Focaldata, IPSOS, More in Common, Norstat, Opinium, Savanta, We Think, Whitestone, YouGov
BMG have confirmed one for later today Delta - probably Focaldata - MRP this PM Ipsos - tomorrow am MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 Norstat - probably Opinium - confirmed for later today Savanta - no idea We Think - this pm I believe Whitestone - probably YG- MRP 5pm
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm deeply invested - as much as 2019 - but in the most unexpected way. I want the Tories to do really really really badly
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
That's true, you might be back in on that wager. We'll see.
Did you finally confirm your vote yet? I'm collating a list of PB CON>LAB Switchers, and had you down as a ?
I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs
I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter
For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night
Pheasant out of the freezer has to be.
Is frozen pheasant nice? Or are you jiking? I have no idea, never cooked it in any form
I really should, perhaps. After my success with the French pigeons
I really wish we had a decent butcher's in Camden, selling game. If I want game I generally have to go to Selfridge's Food Hall across the park, which is a faff
I stack the freezer with pheasant during shooting season. A roasted pheasant makes a lovely dinner for one
Yes, one of the great things about game is that it often makes a great meal for one. Guineafowl (yes I know it's likely farmed) is delicious and just the right size, with some leftovers for a sandwich, and so forth
My local M&S used to do venison steaks which were YUM, but now they've gone. Grrr
Apparently some pheasant is too old to roast and I have never woprked out how to deal with this but then we tend to casserole rather than roast anyway.
We have an old slow cooker, sadly no longer available, where the pot and the hotplate are separate. The pot can be started on the cooker, to sweat off onions or coat the meat, then transferred to the hotplate. It’s great for stews and casseroles. Ideal for game.
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
I'm deeply invested - as much as 2019 - but in the most unexpected way. I want the Tories to do really really really badly
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
At present 22 to 23% seems most likely for the Tories. But thats still disastrous and only 4% above their worst poll levels.
OK Andy we'll all vote Tory. Oh wait, I see what you did there. A sneaky Tory majority in the offing.
I'm not voting Tory because I think they deserve to be heavily defeated. Haven't decided who I am voting for though, and it won't be Reform after Farage's Putin comments.
I’ve just realised what this election feels like: like an international football tournament without England in it. I don’t have any particular dog in this fight. I don’t want any of them to win it, and there is no real feeling of jeopardy. And it therefore feels much more enjoyable, but also rather less immersive. Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
This really looks like it is happening. Unless something wildly mad is wrong with the polls, the Tories are going under 100 seats and are in real danger of losing Opposition status
I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs
I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter
For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night
Pheasant out of the freezer has to be.
Is frozen pheasant nice? Or are you jiking? I have no idea, never cooked it in any form
I really should, perhaps. After my success with the French pigeons
I really wish we had a decent butcher's in Camden, selling game. If I want game I generally have to go to Selfridge's Food Hall across the park, which is a faff
I stack the freezer with pheasant during shooting season. A roasted pheasant makes a lovely dinner for one
Yes, one of the great things about game is that it often makes a great meal for one. Guineafowl (yes I know it's likely farmed) is delicious and just the right size, with some leftovers for a sandwich, and so forth
My local M&S used to do venison steaks which were YUM, but now they've gone. Grrr
Apparently some pheasant is too old to roast and I have never woprked out how to deal with this but then we tend to casserole rather than roast anyway.
We have an old slow cooker, sadly no longer available, where the pot and the hotplate are separate. The pot can be started on the cooker, to sweat off onions or coat the meat, then transferred to the hotplate. It’s great for stews and casseroles. Ideal for game.
Good simple pheasant recipe in the early three volume Delia Smith classic, which contrary to mythology does more than tell you how to boil an egg. (Though it does that as well).
Potentially up to 11 final polls from active players yet to report on Wiki:
BMG, Deltapoll, Focaldata, IPSOS, More in Common, Norstat, Opinium, Savanta, We Think, Whitestone, YouGov
BMG have confirmed one for later today Delta - probably Focaldata - MRP this PM Ipsos - tomorrow am MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 Norstat - probably Opinium - confirmed for later today Savanta - no idea We Think - this pm I believe Whitestone - probably YG- MRP 5pm
Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm
#popcorn
I wonder whether any off the pollsters or MRPs will be accurate, given the unprecedented likely result. Not long to find out!
Who will be the closest? I’m guessing YouGov, without any conviction.
In his budget speech Jeremy Hunt made the following statement. “The average earner in the UK now has the lowest effective personal tax rate since 1975 — and one that is lower than in America, France, Germany or any G7 country.”
Given that the overall tax burden — the tax take as a fraction of national income — is reaching record levels, it is a remarkable claim. I have neither heard nor seen much commentary on it. Paradoxically that might well be because it is demonstrably true. Average earners really are facing lower levels of direct taxation than they have in 50 years. And it is from average earners that higher-tax countries in western Europe get much of their extra revenue......
.....Our reliance on top earners has continued to grow. That top 1 per cent pay 29 per cent of all income tax now, up from 25 per cent in 2010 and 21 per cent at the turn of the century. Whisper it quietly, but this Tory government has taken a serious chunk out of the incomes of the 1 per cent.
This really looks like it is happening. Unless something wildly mad is wrong with the polls, the Tories are going under 100 seats and are in real danger of losing Opposition status
Whether the Tories go under 100 seats depends on whether forecasting assumptions are correct as well. There is no right or wrong answer in advance, only after the election. We're all guessing (although some of the MRP pollsters do have access to huge amounts of sample data - I shall be very interested in what the next YouGov MRP shows.)
Comments
I'd be absolutely stunned if it's more than 30 seats out.
https://www.mindfulchef.com/healthy-recipes/venison-steak-sauteed-leeks-and-mash
Resigns the office next week, Kamala sworn in. Pledged Biden delegates fall in behind her. Time for her to nominate a running mate before the convention.
But it's one of those things, like the fall of Maggie, where what we're told and what's happening are very possibly very different.
The choreography matters, and takes time to set up.
Contrast with 2017 and 2019; I have never felt such relief as I have at 10pm on 12th December 2019.
Potentially up to 11 final polls from active players yet to report on Wiki:
BMG, Deltapoll, Focaldata, IPSOS, More in Common, Norstat, Opinium, Savanta, We Think, Whitestone, YouGov
And it looks like I will get my wish. I am now more confident I'll win that bet with @TimS after these latest polls. They have to be WAY out for the Tories to get over 26%
Delta - probably
Focaldata - MRP this PM
Ipsos - tomorrow am
MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6
Norstat - probably
Opinium - confirmed for later today
Savanta - no idea
We Think - this pm I believe
Whitestone - probably
YG- MRP 5pm
Did you finally confirm your vote yet? I'm collating a list of PB CON>LAB Switchers, and had you down as a ?
📉 Gap between Labour and Conservatives narrows but still as high as 17 points.
LAB: 39% (-3)
CON: 22% (+2)
RFM: 16% (=)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
OTH: 3% (+1)
30th June - 2nd July. Changes with 24th-26th June.
https://twitter.com/BMGResearch/status/1808500074395177406
#popcorn
Trump 1.7
Harris 8
Biden 9
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961
Democratic nominee
Biden 2.54
Harris 3
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/democratic-nominee-betting-1.178163685
Twits
NEW THREAD
Oh, sorry, you said pHeasant.
LAB: 457
CON: 77
LDs: 68
REF: 7
SNP: 15
This really looks like it is happening. Unless something wildly mad is wrong with the polls, the Tories are going under 100 seats and are in real danger of losing Opposition status
Who will be the closest? I’m guessing YouGov, without any conviction.
“Tax” might be low but take home pay is low for a lot of young people
I’d love to see comparisons of payslips and typical outgoings 10/20/30/40/50 years ago for different quartiles
Similarly with different countries
With pineapple.
And Marks & Spencer Popping Corn, popped.