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It's a tie - politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,378
    ...

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    The only thing worse than Starmer getting elected is Sunak getting re-elected.

    Grim austerity and threadbare public services combined with high taxes either way. It will be good to see the Culture War posturing gone, but we will have Streetings smarmy face to put up with instead.

    Atkins is useless at Health, but at least she doesn't pretend to care, neither does she insult me.
    Er, no.

    Sunak getting re-elected is much better than Starmer getting elected.

    And that's exactly what I'm voting for.
    You know, I really don't think it is. I do not subscribe to a 'things have to get worse before they can get better' mentality - that's tosh. I've alwayes wanted a living Tory Party with a vibrant offering, that's why I argued for the departure of Sunak even at the 11th hour, when most other people have said the party is stale and needs some time in opposition.

    However, I really cannot see the long term merit of re-electing Sunak, and continuing with the right of the country being represented by a faux right wing party that selects MPs from the Lib Dem's candidate list. That's not sustainable, and it's better that either the Tory Party shapes up, or someone else steps forward.
  • Options

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    I bet Farage wishes he hadn’t pushed for another outing on the BBC.

    Tomorrow’s QT programme may end up causing more loss of support for Reform .

    Not many people will watch. He will do his best to screw up the event as long as he gets attention. Hopefully he will laugh a lot or cry.
    It’s a football free evening unfortunately for Farage .
    He does like The BBC.First thing for him will be to fall out with them.
    I meant he does not like them.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,204
    edited June 27
    Heathener said:

    Just one thing for @Casino_Royale and other tories who might be sinking into a bit of a funk over the likely Labour win.

    1997 was my first vote and I can remember this kind of sentiment from tories in the run up to polling day.

    And then they awoke on Friday 2nd May and the sun still rose in the east and set in the west. In the days that followed it surprisingly continued to follow this pattern. The world carried on turning and people got on with their lives.

    It’s that which is the depressing bit. The sun will still rise in the east and set in the west. Public services will still be underfunded. We’ll still have a national productivity crisis. Politicians will still demonise migrants. We’ll still be utterly in hock to the private car. There’ll still be shit in the rivers and the trains will still be expensive and beyond overcrowded.

    Nothing much will change. Things can maybe get better, but won’t. We had 14 years of Tory neglect and it’s finally replaced by… this?
  • Options
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting on Lab manifesto costings:

    "A promise we can keep, and a promise you can afford."

    I have not heard this soundbite before. Is it new?

    He said it a lot. So if it isn’t an agreed soundbite, then Streeting is keen on it and doubling down.

    It feels reminiscent of a provincial supermarket / butchers slogan from the eighties. Not bad in itself. But a bit “not the worst sausages, not the best sausages, but the ones you can afford.”
    With Labour we just have to hope for some over-delivery, because they’ve certainly got the under-promising nailed.
    This is one of a few reasons why I think Labour are almost certain to win in 2028/9.

    Unlike previous examples of a sea-change they are not promising anything very much. Their pitch is change but the message is mostly about stability.

    ‘Things can only get better’ would be even more apt for 2024 than 1997.
    Events, dear boy, events is what will do for them.
  • Options

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting on Lab manifesto costings:

    "A promise we can keep, and a promise you can afford."

    I have not heard this soundbite before. Is it new?

    He said it a lot. So if it isn’t an agreed soundbite, then Streeting is keen on it and doubling down.

    It feels reminiscent of a provincial supermarket / butchers slogan from the eighties. Not bad in itself. But a bit “not the worst sausages, not the best sausages, but the ones you can afford.”
    With Labour we just have to hope for some over-delivery, because they’ve certainly got the under-promising nailed.
    This is one of a few reasons why I think Labour are almost certain to win in 2028/9.

    Unlike previous examples of a sea-change they are not promising anything very much. Their pitch is change but the message is mostly about stability.

    ‘Things can only get better’ would be even more apt for 2024 than 1997.
    Events, dear boy, events is what will do for them.
    Labour forever. I do not believe so.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,532
    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936
    edited June 27

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s not going to be worth reading a thousand comments on the debate last night, is it?

    LOL. No.

    Anyone have the viewing figures for it?
    The main thing was there a mob outside screaming. The first 20 minutes they did their best to drown out the debate.
    Was it Steve Bray or the Palestine supporters mob? Or the poshos taking a shit in the car park to raise awareness of climate change?
    Palestine mob. They threw them out of the Weatherspoons. So they went to the debate.

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    Oh CR.

    I think you probably really do believe what you’re writing, rather than just politicking it, but you’re damaging your case by over-egging it, if I may say so.

    The electorate aren’t buying the idea that we’re heading for years of socialism. And, to be frank, a little more humility and honesty about the utter shit show from your party wouldn’t go amiss.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    Sorry that happened to you.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 609
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    That doesn't sound right about June. We were there July last year and it was 30C.

    It swings from lower cold temperatures, to higher warm ones, across the year so will be below freezing much of the year. But you get used to it and it's a much drier cold/heat than here due to the much lower humidity which means you don't feel the cold as much.

    We have family in Alberta and if we were to emigrate, which we're not considering, it's somewhere I'd be happy to go.
    This week it’s mid single digits overnight, and less than 20 maximum. Two weeks ago was 2-3 in the mornings and 10-12 during the day.
    Surely made her nostalgic for home. There's a lot of Ukranians on the Canadian prairie. Same climate as the old country, without the brutal cossacks/Stalinists/SMO etc.
    Ha ha true, but Ukraine gets hot in the summer (hotter than UK generally) and she wasn’t expecting to need her wooly coat in the mornings when walking 1km from her hotel to the office.
    My son has been in Alberta for 6 years (driven by global warming, he's a snowboarder. In summer 3 or 4 years ago a higher temperature was recorded near him than the max ever recorded in Las Vegas.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Those lovable scamps at CCHQ have rebranded their TwiX account as Tax Check UK and are also running the website https://www.labourpartymanifesto2024.com/


    https://x.com/CCHQPress

    There’s certainly going to be a CCHQ social media blitzkrieg over the next week

    They need to do a lot better than the tax x 200 times tweet last night though which looked like it was ‘produced’ by a 5 yr old.

    I think that’s the problem. If you’re going to do social media you’ve got to be right at your game. What I’ve seen from the tories so far has been embarrassingly amateur.
    The Tories will be running this Conservative Party PPB from the early Eighties again shortly.

    https://youtu.be/uzPJSuAQnbE?feature=shared
    It would be an improvement on recent efforts. At least it makes some clear points....
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wes Streeting on Lab manifesto costings:

    "A promise we can keep, and a promise you can afford."

    I have not heard this soundbite before. Is it new?

    He said it a lot. So if it isn’t an agreed soundbite, then Streeting is keen on it and doubling down.

    It feels reminiscent of a provincial supermarket / butchers slogan from the eighties. Not bad in itself. But a bit “not the worst sausages, not the best sausages, but the ones you can afford.”
    With Labour we just have to hope for some over-delivery, because they’ve certainly got the under-promising nailed.
    This is one of a few reasons why I think Labour are almost certain to win in 2028/9.

    Unlike previous examples of a sea-change they are not promising anything very much. Their pitch is change but the message is mostly about stability.

    ‘Things can only get better’ would be even more apt for 2024 than 1997.
    Events, dear boy, events is what will do for them.
    I’m not a boy as you should know.

    And of course I do agree about events and, at some time, Labour will fall back and if they get their act together it will be the Conservatives’ time once more. That though, in my opinion, will be a long long way off. This is a generational sea-change and the more so because your party, for whom you appear to be a parrot, screwed their reputation for economic management.

    You don’t just bounce back from the farce of Trussonomics.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936

    Heathener said:

    Just one thing for @Casino_Royale and other tories who might be sinking into a bit of a funk over the likely Labour win.

    1997 was my first vote and I can remember this kind of sentiment from tories in the run up to polling day.

    And then they awoke on Friday 2nd May and the sun still rose in the east and set in the west. In the days that followed it surprisingly continued to follow this pattern. The world carried on turning and people got on with their lives.

    It’s that which is the depressing bit. The sun will still rise in the east and set in the west. Public services will still be underfunded. We’ll still have a national productivity crisis. Politicians will still demonise migrants. We’ll still be utterly in hock to the private car. There’ll still be shit in the rivers and the trains will still be expensive and beyond overcrowded.

    Nothing much will change. Things can maybe get better, but won’t. We had 14 years of Tory neglect and it’s finally replaced by… this?
    I’m afraid I fundamentally disagree with this pessimism.

    And it has been said before every single election of my life, including the sea-change ones.

    This time the starting point is low because the Conservatives really have run down the country but I am optimistic that over time things will improve under Labour.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,250
    edited June 27
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    I remember driving a long a dead straight road in Inland NSW on the way to Queensland. You become hypnotised. I shot through a stop sign as a result doing 60 mph, I had seen it but it didn't register as meaningful. Fortunately the road across was equally quiet.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,658
    We rise this morning to find the PB Tories emigrating to Alberta. Political refugees.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,658
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    That doesn't sound right about June. We were there July last year and it was 30C.

    It swings from lower cold temperatures, to higher warm ones, across the year so will be below freezing much of the year. But you get used to it and it's a much drier cold/heat than here due to the much lower humidity which means you don't feel the cold as much.

    We have family in Alberta and if we were to emigrate, which we're not considering, it's somewhere I'd be happy to go.
    This week it’s mid single digits overnight, and less than 20 maximum. Two weeks ago was 2-3 in the mornings and 10-12 during the day.
    Maybe you're too used to the Sandpit compared to the UK but I wouldn't count highs of double digits to nearly 20 as barely above freezing!
    I imagine after living in the sand pit for enough time, anything less than "feels like burning in hell" during the summer months is deemed on the chilly side....
    That’s also definitely true. That said it’s a bit cold here today, only 38 at the moment at 10am, was well over 40 last weekend. Overnight lows over 30 as well as the humidity, which isn’t going away until about the end of September!
    Grim.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,221
    I forgot all about last night’s debate. Watched Georgia v Portugal instead. What a game. The Georgians were superb - such commitment and no little skill. Their goalkeeper is very good.

    Last week of the campaign expectations from me: Tories focus on frightening their lost voters back; Labour focus on getting theirs to turn out.

    Ball park predictions: It does look like Reform has peaked. I think they’ll end up on closer to 10% than 15% of the vote. I expect the Tories to be at or just above 25%. Labour to be high 30s, perhaps just scraping 40% because the Green vote will be the best ever on well over 5%. The LibDems will get 12%-14% but incredibly efficiently. Of all the parties, their seat tally will be most proportional to their vote percentage. Overall result? Better than 1997 for Labour but not by that much.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936
    edited June 27

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    I spent two weeks on holiday in Calgary in July and, personally, loved it.

    The winters are very cold, but they're dry- and the whole city is set up to operate indoors - so I'm not sure it'd be as morose as here.
    Hmmm it’s your choice and you might love it long term. People do.

    For myself though it would quickly become very tedious. I find Calgary an unlovely place personally. The mountains are stunningly beautiful but for a holiday not to live, in my opinion anyway. And those cold arid plains winters aren’t my cup of tea.

    I always enjoy the Ben Fogle New Lives in the Wild programmes and he did one from the Canadian Rockies with a follow-up. The couple were protecting bears from hunters, although it didn’t have a good ending because the wife contracted cancer.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936

    I forgot all about last night’s debate. Watched Georgia v Portugal instead. What a game. The Georgians were superb - such commitment and no little skill. Their goalkeeper is very good.

    Last week of the campaign expectations from me: Tories focus on frightening their lost voters back; Labour focus on getting theirs to turn out.

    Ball park predictions: It does look like Reform has peaked. I think they’ll end up on closer to 10% than 15% of the vote. I expect the Tories to be at or just above 25%. Labour to be high 30s, perhaps just scraping 40% because the Green vote will be the best ever on well over 5%. The LibDems will get 12%-14% but incredibly efficiently. Of all the parties, their seat tally will be most proportional to their vote percentage. Overall result? Better than 1997 for Labour but not by that much.

    Spot on I reckon S.O. With you on this almost exactly.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,163

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    That doesn't sound right about June. We were there July last year and it was 30C.

    It swings from lower cold temperatures, to higher warm ones, across the year so will be below freezing much of the year. But you get used to it and it's a much drier cold/heat than here due to the much lower humidity which means you don't feel the cold as much.

    We have family in Alberta and if we were to emigrate, which we're not considering, it's somewhere I'd be happy to go.
    This week it’s mid single digits overnight, and less than 20 maximum. Two weeks ago was 2-3 in the mornings and 10-12 during the day.
    Maybe you're too used to the Sandpit compared to the UK but I wouldn't count highs of double digits to nearly 20 as barely above freezing!
    I imagine after living in the sand pit for enough time, anything less than "feels like burning in hell" during the summer months is deemed on the chilly side....
    That’s also definitely true. That said it’s a bit cold here today, only 38 at the moment at 10am, was well over 40 last weekend. Overnight lows over 30 as well as the humidity, which isn’t going away until about the end of September!
    Grim.
    Yup!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,128
    The Today programme just talking about the debate and very much presenting the election as a close toss up. No suggestions of “supermajority”. That will be helpful for Labour if they’re concerned about turnout.

    However, yet again they did seem to be finding a lot of people saying they will vote Tory. (This time in a chess club in Ilkley). This is why I remain extremely sceptical about the polls. Unless the Beeb is deliberately over-sampling Con-leading demographics, it appears to me there’s a resilience there.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,939
    I would just say that, politically, the 'mental health crisis' is one area where I can imagine the 'far right' making progress. It is not too difficult to imagine a character coming along pledging to 'Stop putting money in the mental health furnace. Force people to work and stop their benefits if they refuse to go. Remove associated human rights laws'. It isn't a desirable answer, but unfortunately it is an answer which will have some political appeal.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,936

    We rise this morning to find the PB Tories emigrating to Alberta. Political refugees.

    Our very own anti-migrant migrants ;)
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,520
    Heathener said:

    We rise this morning to find the PB Tories emigrating to Alberta. Political refugees.

    Our very own anti-migrant migrants ;)
    An unexpected bonus.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,264

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,240
    Last week of this Tory government? 🌶️🌶️🔥🔥😎👌
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,163
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    Now that’s somewhat harsh!
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,520
    darkage said:

    I would just say that, politically, the 'mental health crisis' is one area where I can imagine the 'far right' making progress. It is not too difficult to imagine a character coming along pledging to 'Stop putting money in the mental health furnace. Force people to work and stop their benefits if they refuse to go. Remove associated human rights laws'. It isn't a desirable answer, but unfortunately it is an answer which will have some political appeal.

    The far right would be well placed to make that argument.

    Perhaps along the lines of "I'm doing fine without any treatment for my mental health problems, why shouldn't everyone?"
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,532
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    I remember driving a long a dead straight road in Inland NSW on the way to Queensland. You become hypnotised. I shot through a stop sign as a result doing 60 mph, I had seen it but it didn't register as meaningful. Fortunately the road across was equally quiet.

    That happened to me in Iowa; I went straight across a junction with a main road through red, before I clocked that I should have stopped.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,907
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    I remember driving a long a dead straight road in Inland NSW on the way to Queensland. You become hypnotised. I shot through a stop sign as a result doing 60 mph, I had seen it but it didn't register as meaningful. Fortunately the road across was equally quiet.

    We travelled along a road in NSW/Victoria where there was a sign saying: "bend, five miles ahead." There was another sign every mile, and in the last mile regular signs. Eventually the road took a sharpish ninety-degree bend to run alongside the Murray River; if you missed the bend there was a long drop down to the river.

    Another interesting thing were the flood signs in trees, showing how high the water had been in the past. They were *very* high up in the trees (though I was there during a comparative drought)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,939

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    I spent two weeks on holiday in Calgary in July and, personally, loved it.

    The winters are very cold, but they're dry- and the whole city is set up to operate indoors - so I'm not sure it'd be as morose as here.
    Currently governed on behalf of big oil, apparently.

    https://theconversation.com/how-ideology-is-darkening-the-future-of-renewables-in-alberta-226776
    ...
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,465
    SMukesh said:
    QTWTAIN

    And the article is confused and illogical. The article implies that Sunak remains a bit more popular among Hindus than in the rest of the country, and also that Labour is losing some Muslim votes because of Gaza. Both of these 'desi style vote bank' effects, if you really want to call them that, are actually a bit helpful to Sunak.

    Whether he is harmed by old school angrez racists being more likely to switch to Reform is another question.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,573
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    I spent two weeks on holiday in Calgary in July and, personally, loved it.

    The winters are very cold, but they're dry- and the whole city is set up to operate indoors - so I'm not sure it'd be as morose as here.
    Hmmm it’s your choice and you might love it long term. People do.

    For myself though it would quickly become very tedious. I find Calgary an unlovely place personally. The mountains are stunningly beautiful but for a holiday not to live, in my opinion anyway. And those cold arid plains winters aren’t my cup of tea.

    I always enjoy the Ben Fogle New Lives in the Wild programmes and he did one from the Canadian Rockies with a follow-up. The couple were protecting bears from hunters, although it didn’t have a good ending because the wife contracted cancer.
    "The wife"

    Fascinating.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,297
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    Are these people like eight years old???



    What would go up during a Labour government? Tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax tax...

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1805932619856548153

    (The word tax is then repeated about 200 times)

    "Readers added context they thought people might want to know
    The Conservative Government have been in power since 2010 and have raised overall taxes to their highest level since 1948."
    Doesn't mean readers don't want to know a Labour Government that will take power in 2024 will raise them further to their highest level since 1713.
    Great days, Window Tax in full swing. Hearth Tax departed but a happy memory for all those grateful taxpayers. Income Tax, that temporary expedient, 100 years away.
    Have another think about it.

    You're the one who has to live with your decision.

    How is your plan to move abroad going?
    Wife sceptical, parents don't want me to go.

    I couldn't fuck off hard or fast enough given the choice. Which, I'm sure you'd welcome.

    I'd probably go for the Canadian paradise. Probably Alberta.
    Interesting! I love Alberta. And BC is gorgeous too.

    However … although I thought about doing the same thing I felt that it might be really rather boring after a while. It’s beautiful and the Canadians out west are the loveliest people I know on earth but, for me, it would become stultifying. And whilst I love skiing, those winters are long and cold, without even getting the Northern Lights in compensation.

    Vancouver might be a different story though. That would tempt me. And it’s not too far time-wise to the UK because of the Great Circle Route.
    The most damning question last night was from the young graduate who asked what the leaders would do to keep people like her from emigrating. The banality of the answers was pathetic from both. No vision.

    One of my sons is in Australia at the moment, the other is going to Canada in the autumn. Much as I would miss them, they would be better off staying away. The Tories have trashed the country so thoroughly that the next decade is going to be grimmer than the last.

    It's Africa dreams for me. Streeting's vision leaves me cold.

    Idiot.

    It's the prospect of Labour and their socialism that's driving people away.
    My wife’s just back from a work trip to Calgary, Alberta, and said it’s one of the most boring places she’s ever been. There’s nothing to do except mountain walks and ski-ing, which is fine for a couple of weekends but no more, and it’s barely above freezing even in June! The ‘city’ is about three blocks square, surrounded by suburbia.
    There is a reason something like 90% of the
    Canadian population live in 3 cities....if she thought Calgary was bad, go to Winnipeg or Ottawa.
    Alberta has a lot of Oil. Hopefully nobody invades to get it.
    We did already, a couple of centuries back.
    Wasn’t it the Hudson Bay Company, not the UK that acquired Alberta?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,817
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If you want a really boring trip. Drive Calgary to Winnipeg. 1500km of nothing. After a few 100km, they don't even grow crops, no lakes, no mountains, its just "the browns".

    Canada is like Russia or Australia in that regard - it’s an absolutely massive place where you can drive for a couple of days and see precisely nothing!
    I got done for speeding in Australia by a police guy hiding with his motorbike behind a tree. There’d been nothing but eucalyptus trees for a hundred miles on a dead straight road, with just the tiniest bit of occasional traffic, and I defy anyone to stick to a speed limit on a road like that. As the policeman undoubtedly knew, having gone so far to hide behind that tree.
    I remember driving a long a dead straight road in Inland NSW on the way to Queensland. You become hypnotised. I shot through a stop sign as a result doing 60 mph, I had seen it but it didn't register as meaningful. Fortunately the road across was equally quiet.

    That happened to me in Iowa; I went straight across a junction with a main road through red, before I clocked that I should have stopped.
    Personally, I have this thing called cruise control.
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