Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote? – politicalbetting.com

12346»

Comments

  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,768

    Ugh.

    Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.

    The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

    Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.

    His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/starmer-leaves-door-open-to-tax-rises-for-millions/

    Wait it's Keir Starmer's definition of working people that excludes pensioners is it? Whose definition of working people includes them?

    If pensioners are required to pay the same rate of income as everyone else earning the same salary that would be entirely justified and not cost working people a penny.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,962
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would have thought the most likely outcome for a big chunk of that 43% is not voting at all. If they've got so far and are still uncertain...

    I am showing up in the polls (not this one) as undecided, but will definitely vote. I don't think I am the only one on this board.
    Actually that’s a really good point as well. Some of the undecideds may be Tactical Voters?

    My Newton Abbot constituency is conflicted!

    Best for Britain tell me to vote Labour: https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381

    Tactical.vote tell me to vote LibDem:
    https://tactical.vote/newton-abbot/

    and

    TacticalVote.co.uk haven’t yet made up their mind!
    https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#NewtonAbbot


    So whereas I thought I might have to vote LibDem, I’m no longer sure!
    There is nothing about Newton Abbot that says Labour to me in any manner for a tactical vote. Lib Dem all the way.
    Can I ask you please to be searingly honest? Are you a LibDem voter? Your “nothing […] in any manner” makes me less, not more, likely to believe you. It’s overdone.

    Tactical.Vote didn’t even think about it, seemingly. They put LibDem from the word go.

    Best for Britain took 3 weeks to weigh it up, carefully, and concluded that I should vote Labour.
    From the MORI-IPSOS MRP on Newton Abbot

    @Pro_Rata this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Newton Abbot is leaning Conservative but with Labour, not the LibDems, in second


    The MRP does not take into account the targeting. It has the LDs behind Lab in seats they are targeting (because of Lab being high in the polls and LDs being low) and winning seats they are not targeting (I can think of one near me). I suggest you look at the ground war around you. Who is winning the leafleting and poster war. That is a good guide to who the challenger is.

    By the way when you were in Woking you were spot on. I know it very well.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,783
    kjh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would have thought the most likely outcome for a big chunk of that 43% is not voting at all. If they've got so far and are still uncertain...

    I am showing up in the polls (not this one) as undecided, but will definitely vote. I don't think I am the only one on this board.
    Actually that’s a really good point as well. Some of the undecideds may be Tactical Voters?

    My Newton Abbot constituency is conflicted!

    Best for Britain tell me to vote Labour: https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381

    Tactical.vote tell me to vote LibDem:
    https://tactical.vote/newton-abbot/

    and

    TacticalVote.co.uk haven’t yet made up their mind!
    https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#NewtonAbbot


    So whereas I thought I might have to vote LibDem, I’m no longer sure!
    There is nothing about Newton Abbot that says Labour to me in any manner for a tactical vote. Lib Dem all the way.
    Can I ask you please to be searingly honest? Are you a LibDem voter? Your “nothing […] in any manner” makes me less, not more, likely to believe you. It’s overdone.

    Tactical.Vote didn’t even think about it, seemingly. They put LibDem from the word go.

    Best for Britain took 3 weeks to weigh it up, carefully, and concluded that I should vote Labour.
    From the MORI-IPSOS MRP on Newton Abbot

    @Pro_Rata this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Newton Abbot is leaning Conservative but with Labour, not the LibDems, in second


    The MRP does not take into account the targeting. It has the LDs behind Lab in seats they are targeting (because of Lab being high in the polls and LDs being low) and winning seats they are not targeting (I can think of one near me). I suggest you look at the ground war around you. Who is winning the leafleting and poster war. That is a good guide to who the challenger is.

    By the way when you were in Woking you were spot on. I know it very well.
    Thanks @kjh

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Newton Abbot opposition splits again and Anne Morris is re-elected.

    This MRP has Woking as neck-and-neck but I very much doubt that. I think it’s solid LibDem now. They’re putting in a big ground war.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,356
    edited June 18
    Andy_JS said:

    Both Montgomery and Brecon -> LDs in third place, which is different to other MRPs.

    Remember that the MRPs are working from broad demographic models, not decent sized hyper local samples. They can pick up local swings when these reflect wider trends - as happened with both Canterbury and Kensington during their first outing at a GE - but have no way of picking up local factors or local campaigning in a particular seat. The seat by seat predictions are afforded too much weight, IMO, and we need to be thinking whether we are trying to discern the local impact of wider demographic voting shifts - which MRPs are good at - or how well a particular party is campaigning in a particular seat - which the MRP will miss entirely.
Sign In or Register to comment.