It looks like the Tories are going to put the abolition of NI in their manifesto as an ambition when the country can afford it .
The problem here is how on earth the country could ever afford to lose that much revenue . And it’s risky because of the shadow of Truss . Given NI does go towards pensions if pensioners think it could effect that then it’s a problem for the Tories .
Well indeed. The obvious question to Tory politicians is what further tax rises to make up the shortfall have they got planned above the increased tax bill of £3 018 already planned for the next parliament.
well since Reeves is clinging limpet like to Hunts plans thats also a Labour £3018 tax rise.
And then on top there will be Labour's own tax rises. Reeves reported to be looking at 12 additional rises.
That's why the £2,000 Labour tax-rise resonates - we all know it's going to be true.
The only inaccuracy is that it's an underestimate.
You do know that it resonates because everyone is looking at the record taxes they are paying for broken public services, and listening to you Tories claim to have cut taxes and think "lying sods".
The more you repeat it, the more people are clear that you are absurd liars. Look at the polls this week. It is playing *the opposite* of what you just said.
I'll keep saying it until polling day.
Because it's not about us: it's about what Labour will do in office, since they will win.
Just so we're clear, it isn't about the Tories now as you won't win? So when you said £2,000 tax rises under Labour, and the Spectator use the exact same methodology to show you are committed to £3,000 tax rises, we can ignore that as Labour will win and you won't?
I agree that Labour will win BTW. And that this is about what opposition there is to them after the election. How do you feel about the idea of an MP who backstabbed his colleague in his hospital bed to take the nomination himself, planning to be a very part time MP and live hours away from the constituency? Having said that he couldn't be an MP as he needed to focus on being an MSP?
Labour will raise taxes by far more than the Tories would do if they were to regain office.
This is the crucial point: the choice is between two competing alternatives for government. One has already had to raise tax, against its instincts, to deal with Covid-19, Ukraine and inflationary/interest-rate fallout, and is gradually getting things back on track. The other wants to spend much much more on public services.
Fair enough, but that money has to come from somewhere. It's not going to come from borrowing, it can't, so it can only come from extra tax.
Where?
I agree with everything you say but Truss handed Labour the biggest gift in political history, and Sunak delivered the coup d'etat this week
This is Starmer and Labour's time and of course they will raise taxes and certainly struggle with multitudes of problems which they simply have no idea how to resolve or are frightened of the political consequences
I do not think it will be long until their honeymoon period ends, but in the meantime I genuinely hope the conservative party, or more specifically what is left of it, can regain their sanity and move to the centre where all elections are won
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
It's a bit of a myth - Blair did a lot in his 1st and 2nd terms and only had the bandwidth, with events on top, to do so much at once. And most people don't want radical changes.
Weak sauce all round I thought. I don’t think Mordaunt even believed what she was saying about £2000 of taxes. The Lib Dems got owned. And Farage seems to have had some good coaching.
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
A lot of this is higher borrowing costs that the government can't do anything about. I think it will be marginal gains for public services unfortunately.
I also think immigration will be kept high. They fill the fiscal gap.
This Tory Facebook ad seems to be conceding defeat?
(I suppose it’s not necessarily stupid to run a “who do you want to be the official opposition to a Labour government?” campaign given the state of the polls but it’s… different.)
Missed the debate last night. We were supposed to go out, got caught in a downpour on the way to the station. Came home. Dried off. Drank a bottle of my 13% cider and fell asleep. However social media tells me the winner was the person from the party the poster most supports. Any impartial views on the debate ? I saw a poll by more in common had Farage as the winner.
I’d say Farage won (as far as ‘winning’ is possible in a seven way debate) with Angela a good second. Penny was a bit school mommy - suffered from being stationed next to Angela, who was always going to dominate her.
Cue several PBers instinctively biting their fists and breathing heavily.
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
At it again with someone else now.
You’re a truly terrible advert for the Conservative Party. I doubt you will listen to this but you really are.
My favourite recent CR comment was "This violence and abuse of our politicians has got to stop" in reference to the assault of the Danish PM.
After saying about Sir Keir:
"I'd walk through blood to stop the man. He has deeply angered me and ripped the heart out of one of the core pillars of our local community. He is dirt."
I remember my brief stint as a working journalist. Top and tailing press releases so that they actually resemble something I had written. Not sure my new friend at The Northern Scot has even done that much...
I'm placing a range of (what I consider to be) value bets to cover a variety of outcomes, obviously being careful they don't cancel each other out. Because seat ranges are highly unpredictable with a wide MoE.
Right now, I find the 15/2 with Ladbrokes (boosted) for Tories to secure 150-200 seats interesting.
Yes, they've had a bad week with Farage and D-Day, but there's still nearly a month to go and it wouldn't take much on the day itself for them to creep into the 155-175 seats range, particularly if Reform proves a damp squib. And that still represents losing c.200 seats.
This Tory Facebook ad seems to be conceding defeat?
(I suppose it’s not necessarily stupid to run a “who do you want to be the official opposition to a Labour government?” campaign given the state of the polls but it’s… different.)
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.
Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.
I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.
Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
We have the NHS, founded by the apostle Clement Attlee.
At least we no longer have the evening act of worship from the Covid era.
Always surprises me that the people didn't clap the most important people in society like the bankers, politicians, private health profiteers and equity fund managers.
Strange that
They had financial reward enough.
Cheaper to applaud Doctors and Nurses with pots and pans on a Thursday evening than increase their pay by 30%.
My GP friend ( now retired ) refused to play pots and pans as he thinks most doctors are work shirking chancers.
I'd rather one of those work shirking chancers completed my triple by pass than an industrious Alanbrooke. A plumber once told me " you are paying me for what I know, not what I do". The same applies to Doctors with bells on. Although I saw Dr Patrick nearly killed a patient on the BBC documentary Casualty last week too, so food for thought!
I'm simply reporting a doctor's view not necessarily my own. I occasionally get to meet his doctor mates and it's always interesting to hear their in-house chat.
I was at an interesting meeting yesterday on health economics and productivity. A number of speakers spoke about a workforce "quiet quitting" which is the neologism for being lazy or workshy. The audience of Midlands health professionals did not object. We all recognise the phenomenon, the question is how to fix it.
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
At it again with someone else now.
You’re a truly terrible advert for the Conservative Party. I doubt you will listen to this but you really are.
My favourite recent CR comment was "This violence and abuse of our politicians has got to stop" in reference to the assault of the Danish PM.
After saying about Sir Keir:
"I'd walk through blood to stop the man. He has deeply angered me and ripped the heart out of one of the core pillars of our local community. He is dirt."
I honestly think CR is trolling us. He has to be a parody.
This Tory Facebook ad seems to be conceding defeat?
(I suppose it’s not necessarily stupid to run a “who do you want to be the official opposition to a Labour government?” campaign given the state of the polls but it’s… different.)
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.
Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.
I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.
Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
Much of this is only very nominal. Especially when you remember that only one person in the family usually fills out the census form.
Most of the Christian responses will be cultural. Nominal C of E, never go near a church except for weddings and funerals. We inhabit one of the most irreligious polities on the face of the Earth.
Scotland still more so.
And the weddings and funerals in the C of E bit are only because English residents get a free subscription, so to speak, because it's the state cult.
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
Just to let you know Casino, I haven't flagged you.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
John Studholme, just about the first LD councillor on South Lakeland and certainly the man who brough Tim Farron to Westmorland seems to be standing against him as an independent.
Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.
Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
How many words was your response?
Zero.
Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?
Are you really a Tory as per your name?
Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.
Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
Then maybe consider changing your name?
Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.
I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
Good morning
I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile
Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience
Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party
I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily
It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
Although we may not always see eye to eye I’ve appreciated following your thoughtful journey on this Big G.
I might also be voting LibDem.
I actually quite like their policies on a range of issues and I believe they may have the best chance in my constituency (Newton Abbot).
I too dread the thought of Nigel Farage and hope he does not win Clacton, although in some ways it might be a way of keeping him quiet for 5 years if he has to serve as an MP of a far-right fringe party.
I regret Truss and Sunak's actions, but they are insignificant when put alongside Farage pro Trump, anti vax, anti net zero far right ideals and to be honest if he does get into the HOC he will not be quiet and will be a very disruptive presence
Leicester East looks interesting. The bonkers crossover of community politics local politics and national politics makes for some strange cross currents. This is the area where the community disturbances between Hindutva and Muslim rabble rousers spilled over a couple of years back, and the Labour party purged itself of a number of sitting councillors because of an attempt to limit the power of the Labour mayor for being too autocratic. A number of councillors defected and seats were lost in a spread of different directions, mostly to pro-Modi Conservatives.
The Constituency is 20% White British, 69% British South Asian including about 33% Hindu. Claudia Webbe is the deeply unpopular and invisible Independent MP parachuted in by Corbyn in 2019 over the head of the local Labour Party and since had the whip removed.
There are 10 candidates on the ballot including Lab, Con, Reform, Green, LD and 5 others. Webbe is standing as an independent, Keith Vaz for One Leicester (composed mostly of deposed councillors from the Mayor's purge), and 3 further independents. These seem to be two Hindu and one pro-Gaza Muslim. One of the Hindu independents was recently a Conservative Councillor. The LD candidate is a well known local Councillor and health campaigner and Muslim. The Labour, Conservative and Reform candidates are all Hindu, and Vaz is Catholic, and retains a lot of support.
It's very opaque as to how much support the various independents have, and who they will take votes from. Its a weird and heady brew and anything could happen, but I expect the Tory vote here is more pro-Sunak than nearly any other constituency in the country.
I think Vaz and the pro-Gaza independent will mostly take votes off Labour, and the Hindutva vote may get similarly fragmented.
Overall, I think a likely Lab win because of national issues, but I wouldn't rule out either the Tory or Vaz. The Tory is 5.5 at present, and I don't think that Vaz appears in a Constituency market yet.
I'm placing a range of (what I consider to be) value bets to cover a variety of outcomes, obviously being careful they don't cancel each other out. Because seat ranges are highly unpredictable with a wide MoE.
Right now, I find the 15/2 with Ladbrokes (boosted) for Tories to secure 150-200 seats interesting.
Yes, they've had a bad week with Farage and D-Day, but there's still nearly a month to go and it wouldn't take much on the day itself for them to creep into the 155-175 seats range, particularly if Reform proves a damp squib. And that still represents losing c.200 seats.
DYOR.
Decent odds I think to reflect a result that is on the edge of plausible outcomes.
This is the reality that confronts the state sector. Vat on private schools doesn't even have a remote bearing on it. And it's getting worse, not better.
Much the same could be said for transport. I've no doubt it's similar in health.
It can't be said for social care and social services because things are worse there.
Let me know if any party shows signs of at least appreciating the scale of the challenge. It might persuade me to vote for them.
Worth keeping an eye on the local by elections the next 3 weeks. Whilst the Tories got run close in Torbay, their vote % elsewhere in the few we have had has held up remarkably well since GE called with a gain and a hold from second in a MMW as well as holds and do not, In themselves, suggest wipeout. They suggest the core switching on now we are into a campaign. Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
The lack of understanding among not just the public but the media too about the role of demographics in Western economic performance is a big problem.
We’ve been teaching about the challenges of ageing populations in school geography since the 90s, but somehow it’s not sunk in. We even had a live case study in Japan for a similar amount of time.
The dependency ratio in most Western countries is going inexorably upwards. There are more people needing state spending in old age, and fewer people of working age to pay for it. Britain, France and the US are not hit as hard as most but we’re still seeing the same trend. It means much more tax for the same outcomes.
It almost certainly means a shift to wealth and property taxation at some stage.
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
A lot of this is higher borrowing costs that the government can't do anything about. I think it will be marginal gains for public services unfortunately.
I also think immigration will be kept high. They fill the fiscal gap.
In 2010, the tax take was about £410b, with inflation that's about £650b now. Tax in 2023/24 was about £950b with debt interest about £110b. I'm not sure what the debt interest was in 2010, but even assuming that it was zero then that's £190b extra spent for what feels like a worse return. People don't want to pay Waitrose prices for some mouldy out of date stuff from the corner shop. Will another bunch of people make that better? Maybe not but I don't think anyone wants five more years of the same guys.
@RochdalePioneers: a slightly presumptuous question if I may. Your twitter feed has an agent and lists an Edinburgh address, but implies that is for you. Is the twitter bio necessary in quite that form, as it might wrongly call into question your localness in some minds?
Leicester East looks interesting. The bonkers crossover of community politics local politics and national politics makes for some strange cross currents. This is the area where the community disturbances between Hindutva and Muslim rabble rousers spilled over a couple of years back, and the Labour party purged itself of a number of sitting councillors because of an attempt to limit the power of the Labour mayor for being too autocratic. A number of councillors defected and seats were lost in a spread of different directions, mostly to pro-Modi Conservatives.
The Constituency is 20% White British, 69% British South Asian including about 33% Hindu. Claudia Webbe is the deeply unpopular and invisible Independent MP parachuted in by Corbyn in 2019 over the head of the local Labour Party and since had the whip removed.
There are 10 candidates on the ballot including Lab, Con, Reform, Green, LD and 5 others. Webbe is standing as an independent, Keith Vaz for One Leicester (composed mostly of deposed councillors from the Mayor's purge), and 3 further independents. These seem to be two Hindu and one pro-Gaza Muslim. One of the Hindu independents was recently a Conservative Councillor. The LD candidate is a well known local Councillor and health campaigner and Muslim. The Labour, Conservative and Reform candidates are all Hindu, and Vaz is Catholic, and retains a lot of support.
It's very opaque as to how much support the various independents have, and who they will take votes from. Its a weird and heady brew and anything could happen, but I expect the Tory vote here is more pro-Sunak than nearly any other constituency in the country.
I think Vaz and the pro-Gaza independent will mostly take votes off Labour, and the Hindutva vote may get similarly fragmented.
Overall, I think a likely Lab win because of national issues, but I wouldn't rule out either the Tory or Vaz. The Tory is 5.5 at present, and I don't think that Vaz appears in a Constituency market yet.
This could go anywhere!
Webbe, FWIW, has Galloway and the WPB backing if anyone wants to factor in any influence they feel he might have on the local situation. Not enough for her obviously but it might draw a few % away from the others
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
Just to let you know Casino, I haven't flagged you.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
Probable future actions are priced in
I’d note that many of those claiming that potential VAT couldn’t have had an effect if schools, also claimed that a non-enacted change in policy on dependents caused foreign university admissions to collapse.
Mr. Jim, the public applauding of the NHS at a designated time was cultish and creepy.
Indeed Mr Dancer, I even had an anonymous note from my neighbours expressing their displeasure that I didn’t behave like a programmed automaton.
How many words was your response?
Zero.
Can I ask you a question which is bugging me?
Are you really a Tory as per your name?
Yes and no. By inclination I lean towards the centre right but I’m no longer a party member and will probably vote elsewhere this time.
Like most people if they’d admit it some of my views skew righter than others, some skew left. Even when I was a Tory member I was never slavishly adherent to every single thing they came up with.
Then maybe consider changing your name?
Not particularly good sport to call yourself a Tory if you're not one.
I would absolutely consider myself a Tory. I just don’t consider that the party that is labelled Tory actually still is. Therefore I feel free to find a home for my vote that best represents my position.
I hope the Conservatives eventually return to where I can feel at home. Sadly if they fall into the vampiric embrace of Nigel Farage and his nativists then I suspect that will be unlikely.
Good morning
I am in the same position and despite my anger to Sunak, the thought of Farage being anywhere near the conservative party is something that would condemn me to permanent exile
Indeed how a poll has him coming out top last night amazes me, as it was clear he was not liked by the audience
Sunak will be history in 4 weeks, deservedly so after his behaviour over D day, and Mordaunt had an impossible task last nght after he had not only compromised himself but all the conservative party
I have just seen our candidate list and my postal vote in 10 days time will be going in for the Lib Dem as the only way I can deliver my verdict on Sunak, though it is only 1 vote and Labour will win the seat back from the conservatives easily
It will be the first time I have voted Lib Dem in a GE
Although we may not always see eye to eye I’ve appreciated following your thoughtful journey on this Big G.
I might also be voting LibDem.
I actually quite like their policies on a range of issues and I believe they may have the best chance in my constituency (Newton Abbot).
I too dread the thought of Nigel Farage and hope he does not win Clacton, although in some ways it might be a way of keeping him quiet for 5 years if he has to serve as an MP of a far-right fringe party.
I regret Truss and Sunak's actions, but they are insignificant when put alongside Farage pro Trump, anti vax, anti net zero far right ideals and to be honest if he does get into the HOC he will not be quiet and will be a very disruptive presence
He'll get bored and wander off. I guarantee you if he does win he won't have a good attendance or voting record. He will be more interested in using his status -- Nigel Farage EMM PEE! -- to push his sad Trumpian policies to an increasingly weary country.
Still, I suppose it'll be nice for him, in a way. He can die safe in the knowledge that he equalled Jared O'Mara's achievement of sitting in the Commons.
He might even beat Sir Isaac Newtons record there (one time asking for a window to be opened)
Which Margaret Thatcher famously rendered as 'keep taking the pills' when Callaghan compared himself to Moses (her staff eventually persuaded her 'keep taking the tablets' worked better).
Leicester East looks interesting. The bonkers crossover of community politics local politics and national politics makes for some strange cross currents. This is the area where the community disturbances between Hindutva and Muslim rabble rousers spilled over a couple of years back, and the Labour party purged itself of a number of sitting councillors because of an attempt to limit the power of the Labour mayor for being too autocratic. A number of councillors defected and seats were lost in a spread of different directions, mostly to pro-Modi Conservatives.
The Constituency is 20% White British, 69% British South Asian including about 33% Hindu. Claudia Webbe is the deeply unpopular and invisible Independent MP parachuted in by Corbyn in 2019 over the head of the local Labour Party and since had the whip removed.
There are 10 candidates on the ballot including Lab, Con, Reform, Green, LD and 5 others. Webbe is standing as an independent, Keith Vaz for One Leicester (composed mostly of deposed councillors from the Mayor's purge), and 3 further independents. These seem to be two Hindu and one pro-Gaza Muslim. One of the Hindu independents was recently a Conservative Councillor. The LD candidate is a well known local Councillor and health campaigner and Muslim. The Labour, Conservative and Reform candidates are all Hindu, and Vaz is Catholic, and retains a lot of support.
It's very opaque as to how much support the various independents have, and who they will take votes from. Its a weird and heady brew and anything could happen, but I expect the Tory vote here is more pro-Sunak than nearly any other constituency in the country.
I think Vaz and the pro-Gaza independent will mostly take votes off Labour, and the Hindutva vote may get similarly fragmented.
Overall, I think a likely Lab win because of national issues, but I wouldn't rule out either the Tory or Vaz. The Tory is 5.5 at present, and I don't think that Vaz appears in a Constituency market yet.
This could go anywhere!
That sounds fun as a random constituency result, although personally I dislike the bringing-in of ethnic and sectarian politics, which almost never ends well.
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
The lack of understanding among not just the public but the media too about the role of demographics in Western economic performance is a big problem.
We’ve been teaching about the challenges of ageing populations in school geography since the 90s, but somehow it’s not sunk in. We even had a live case study in Japan for a similar amount of time.
The dependency ratio in most Western countries is going inexorably upwards. There are more people needing state spending in old age, and fewer people of working age to pay for it. Britain, France and the US are not hit as hard as most but we’re still seeing the same trend. It means much more tax for the same outcomes.
It almost certainly means a shift to wealth and property taxation at some stage.
Older voters constitute most of the burden on the state and hold most of the wealth, which they furiously resent being touched.
"But I paid my taxes!" will be written on the tombstone of the Western democracies.
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
Opinium dudes haven't ramped tonight's poll yet. I guess it's either a boring reversion to mean OR its so astonishing they are planning a major ta daaaaaaaaaa! Given how pathetically they ramped the first two.
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
Student loans and private pensions are big deductions too ! It’s not just things called taxes that mean people have less money to spend and feel poorer
has any one seen a comparison of pay and deductions and bills from eras to today ? Would be interesting to See!
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
At it again with someone else now.
You’re a truly terrible advert for the Conservative Party. I doubt you will listen to this but you really are.
My favourite recent CR comment was "This violence and abuse of our politicians has got to stop" in reference to the assault of the Danish PM.
After saying about Sir Keir:
"I'd walk through blood to stop the man. He has deeply angered me and ripped the heart out of one of the core pillars of our local community. He is dirt."
Wade through blood is a figure of speech, not literal.
Don't try and contrive outrage where none exists. I was - and still am - angry but I'd never advocate or encourage harm to SKS or anyone else, and would robustly condemn it if it ever occurred.
Worth keeping an eye on the local by elections the next 3 weeks. Whilst the Tories got run close in Torbay, their vote % elsewhere in the few we have had has held up remarkably well since GE called with a gain and a hold from second in a MMW as well as holds and do not, In themselves, suggest wipeout. They suggest the core switching on now we are into a campaign. Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
I've not done any calculations recently, but my impression for a good while has been that the Tories have been holding up well in local by-elections. Perhaps even above how they poll in the May rounds, where more of a message can be sent if you do desire.
I'm not sure what that means, if anything - whether the punishment is merely being saved for GE day, or whether it does mean the Tories will outperform at the GE. Turn out is the big difference here though. But overall, I'm unconvinced that the local BEs are telling us anything much that we should attend to this side of GE day.
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
Just to let you know Casino, I haven't flagged you.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
Probable future actions are priced in
I’d note that many of those claiming that potential VAT couldn’t have had an effect if schools, also claimed that a non-enacted change in policy on dependents caused foreign university admissions to collapse.
Of course, they want to defend their own sides policies whilst attacking the other.
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
I'm placing a range of (what I consider to be) value bets to cover a variety of outcomes, obviously being careful they don't cancel each other out. Because seat ranges are highly unpredictable with a wide MoE.
Right now, I find the 15/2 with Ladbrokes (boosted) for Tories to secure 150-200 seats interesting.
Yes, they've had a bad week with Farage and D-Day, but there's still nearly a month to go and it wouldn't take much on the day itself for them to creep into the 155-175 seats range, particularly if Reform proves a damp squib. And that still represents losing c.200 seats.
Worth keeping an eye on the local by elections the next 3 weeks. Whilst the Tories got run close in Torbay, their vote % elsewhere in the few we have had has held up remarkably well since GE called with a gain and a hold from second in a MMW as well as holds and do not, In themselves, suggest wipeout. They suggest the core switching on now we are into a campaign. Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
Yes, it is limited data but the signs are good that rural areas and 'Red Wall' areas are swinging back a little bit. That's why I think that Gainsborough and Goole & Pocklington despite Electoral Calculus calling those two with Labour gain chances of 54% and 58%.
Offsetting that is the thought that if the polls are reporting a number and there's one area that's better than the polls suggest, there can be areas where the reality is worse than the polls suggest and it feels like the South West is going to be worse for the Conservatives. Electoral Calculus suggest that Torbay, Exmouth & Exeter East and West Dorset are all Con holds but think they might all end up as LD gain.
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
Just to let you know Casino, I haven't flagged you.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
Thanks. I suggest we perhaps avoid reopening the subject.
I'm placing a range of (what I consider to be) value bets to cover a variety of outcomes, obviously being careful they don't cancel each other out. Because seat ranges are highly unpredictable with a wide MoE.
Right now, I find the 15/2 with Ladbrokes (boosted) for Tories to secure 150-200 seats interesting.
Yes, they've had a bad week with Farage and D-Day, but there's still nearly a month to go and it wouldn't take much on the day itself for them to creep into the 155-175 seats range, particularly if Reform proves a damp squib. And that still represents losing c.200 seats.
DYOR.
Have you had a punt on turnout ?
Not yet, as I haven't found odds that have attracted me.
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.
Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.
I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.
Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
Much of this is only very nominal. Especially when you remember that only one person in the family usually fills out the census form.
Most of the Christian responses will be cultural. Nominal C of E, never go near a church except for weddings and funerals. We inhabit one of the most irreligious polities on the face of the Earth.
Scotland still more so.
And the weddings and funerals in the C of E bit are only because English residents get a free subscription, so to speak, because it's the state cult.
I find the "count Christians by the number of people who go to church one" interesting, There are layers to the affiliation - committed, community, cultural and so on. I don't see why such are in some way 'invalid'.
There have been modern movements since at least the 1950s, and perhaps the 1930s or earlier, exploring concepts such as "the church outside the Church" and "secular faith". Iona and similar communities are in some way practical expressions of such movements. Writers from that earlier modernist period would be people such as Bishop John Robinson ("Honest to God") and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ("The Phenomenon of Man", "The Divine Milieu").
It's exactly the game the Humanist Association were playing when they managed to nobble .. er .. amend the census question. They have always claimed "we represent all the nonreligious in the population", when having just a few thousand "members" themselves.
They also play games with nebulous surveys - there was a funny one that was nailed by a philosopher a few years ago. It could have been filled in my any priest or bishop I have ever known and they would come out as "humanist".
Which is itself ironic because the word comes from humanist theologians such as Erasmus.
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
A humourless low-IQ trans-activist dork who never has sex?
Worth keeping an eye on the local by elections the next 3 weeks. Whilst the Tories got run close in Torbay, their vote % elsewhere in the few we have had has held up remarkably well since GE called with a gain and a hold from second in a MMW as well as holds and do not, In themselves, suggest wipeout. They suggest the core switching on now we are into a campaign. Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
Yes, it is limited data but the signs are good that rural areas and 'Red Wall' areas are swinging back a little bit. That's why I think that Gainsborough and Goole & Pocklington despite Electoral Calculus calling those two with Labour gain chances of 54% and 58%.
Offsetting that is the thought that if the polls are reporting a number and there's one area that's better than the polls suggest, there can be areas where the reality is worse than the polls suggest and it feels like the South West is going to be worse for the Conservatives. Electoral Calculus suggest that Torbay, Exmouth & Exeter East and West Dorset are all Con holds but think they might all end up as LD gain.
Yes the SW could be brutal. They might be saved in West Dorset by Reform not running
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
More significant is that the entire piece is a defence of his precious Brexit. Which the country has decided was a mistake. And desperately doesn't want to talk about having wasted a decade or more on it whilst ignoring the fabric of the nation collapsing. He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
This Tory Facebook ad seems to be conceding defeat?
(I suppose it’s not necessarily stupid to run a “who do you want to be the official opposition to a Labour government?” campaign given the state of the polls but it’s… different.)
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
I don’t know who they are. Before my time.
The 1970’s are half a century ago
I know the phrase ‘to the manner born’
Do you only know about things that have happened in your lifetime?
Most people know things that happened in their lifetime better, yes.
I know To the Manor Born as it was still getting repeated in the 90s when I was a teen, but I wouldn't expect anyone younger than me to know it.
It's sometimes shown on BBC2 on Tuesday evenings along with Yes Minister.
I don’t have a tv and haven’t watched anything on tv for c. 10 years.
I only ever use my MacBook and iPhone. Stream or rip everything. I agree with Mrs @BartholomewRoberts about TikTok for music. I love it for that.
p.s. what is a “radio”? (Ok that last bit is a joke but seriously wtf is a radio these days?). Can you even buy them?
Which Margaret Thatcher famously rendered as 'keep taking the pills' when Callaghan compared himself to Moses (her staff eventually persuaded her 'keep taking the tablets' worked better).
It’s a genuine shame that you never had the experience of attempting to explain puns to her. That might have been one of history’s epic encounters.
Worth keeping an eye on the local by elections the next 3 weeks. Whilst the Tories got run close in Torbay, their vote % elsewhere in the few we have had has held up remarkably well since GE called with a gain and a hold from second in a MMW as well as holds and do not, In themselves, suggest wipeout. They suggest the core switching on now we are into a campaign. Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
Yes, it is limited data but the signs are good that rural areas and 'Red Wall' areas are swinging back a little bit. That's why I think that Gainsborough and Goole & Pocklington despite Electoral Calculus calling those two with Labour gain chances of 54% and 58%.
Offsetting that is the thought that if the polls are reporting a number and there's one area that's better than the polls suggest, there can be areas where the reality is worse than the polls suggest and it feels like the South West is going to be worse for the Conservatives. Electoral Calculus suggest that Torbay, Exmouth & Exeter East and West Dorset are all Con holds but think they might all end up as LD gain.
Yes the SW could be brutal. They might be saved in West Dorset by Reform not running
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
The lack of understanding among not just the public but the media too about the role of demographics in Western economic performance is a big problem.
We’ve been teaching about the challenges of ageing populations in school geography since the 90s, but somehow it’s not sunk in. We even had a live case study in Japan for a similar amount of time.
The dependency ratio in most Western countries is going inexorably upwards. There are more people needing state spending in old age, and fewer people of working age to pay for it. Britain, France and the US are not hit as hard as most but we’re still seeing the same trend. It means much more tax for the same outcomes.
It almost certainly means a shift to wealth and property taxation at some stage.
Older voters constitute most of the burden on the state and hold most of the wealth, which they furiously resent being touched.
"But I paid my taxes!" will be written on the tombstone of the Western democracies.
I'd almost say the problem is the other way around. What we have now is normal. But the boom of the post war period, driven by an unusually benign dependency ratio, gave an illusion of how generous the state could be.
@RochdalePioneers: a slightly presumptuous question if I may. Your twitter feed has an agent and lists an Edinburgh address, but implies that is for you. Is the twitter bio necessary in quite that form, as it might wrongly call into question your localness in some minds?
Yes, I figured something like that, but I do go round politician twitter a bit and there is not necessarily the same level of details on the all the candidate bios.
Maybe that has changed as recently as yesterday when people formally became candidates and Rochdale just got his ducks in a row ahead of time.
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
More significant is that the entire piece is a defence of his precious Brexit. Which the country has decided was a mistake. And desperately doesn't want to talk about having wasted a decade or more on it whilst ignoring the fabric of the nation collapsing. He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
It was striking how unpopular Brexit was with the carefully balanced audience last night.
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
A humourless low-IQ trans-activist dork who never has sex?
I'm more impressed by a Gen Zer who first got into politics around the time of John Smith. A rare demographic indeed
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Speaking as somebody who suffered (insidious, usually unintentional) discrimination in the past, I'm all for it DEI.
Casino Royale is, I’m afraid, a rather nasty piece of work.
Look at his constant bullying of me, including his regular ‘EVERYONE hates you’.
No wonder he doesn’t like DEI.
He says I’m 'full of shit' but I’ve never encountered a more unpleasant individual online, as others have also experienced on here.
If I were a pb tory I’d be msging him to dial it down. He’s confirming what a lot of us know, that The Nasty Party are in full control of the Conservatives. Pity them because they won’t ever win power in this country with his like.
Heathener, if you were a rabid right-winger the PB faithful would be lapping up your every word, cf @Leon .
Your problem is not your colourful backstory but the colour of your rosette. You are also quite hubristic which makes them angry. Only they are allowed to say "suck it up Remainer losers", "Captain Hindsight can never win an election" and "Boris will be a four term Churchillian PM, he got all the big calls right".
How come I don't have a problem (usually) with you, Ben, Gallowgate, OLB, OKC or Jonathan then? And even Horse has ironed himself out recently?
There a handful of Left-wing posters I do, but not the sensible ones.
Come off it Casino, if you could be arsed you'd hate the ground I walked on. Your previous response to a serious post I made about VAT on schools was peppered with "f" bombs
It's personal to me, and you said you couldn't care less.
You got what you deserved.
Just to let you know Casino, I haven't flagged you.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
Probable future actions are priced in
I’d note that many of those claiming that potential VAT couldn’t have had an effect if schools, also claimed that a non-enacted change in policy on dependents caused foreign university admissions to collapse.
I would claim that a prescription from an incumbent carries more weight than a proposition from a challenger.
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 700 pieces of Russian artillery in a little more than a fortnight. Massive stockpiles from the Soviet era are being obliterated, now within Russia itself - with no prospect of replacement any time soon.
Russia's warfare is predicated on long-range demolition. It's glide bombs have been very impressive in replacing artillery in this role. But with several more Patriot systems arriving in Ukraine, Russian jets are going to be far too vulnerable to deliver them.
Russia's advance around Kharkiv seemed to have stalled. Indeed, recent reports suggest Russia is now losing ground. Putin's strategy of using up his men and finite machinery to force Ukraine to a settlement looks to be at risk of failure - and facing better quality weaponry, may suffer long term reversals. The arrival of F-16s and Mirage jets are going to make Crimea one giant pinata of Russian troops. The Kerch Straits supply ferries have already been hit and damaged; the Kerch Bridge is now in range of missiles.
If Ukraine can make Crimea a killing fields for Russian troops stationed there, there is over the next year or so the route for a final settlement: Ukraine cedes lands in the east, whilst getting the return of Crimea. That would be a blow from which Putin would not survive - literally.
Opinium dudes haven't ramped tonight's poll yet. I guess it's either a boring reversion to mean OR its so astonishing they are planning a major ta daaaaaaaaaa! Given how pathetically they ramped the first two.
Or they have taken on board my warning that the Seventh Circle of Hell is reserved for the poll rampers… and have doth repented?
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
A humourless low-IQ trans-activist dork who never has sex?
I'm more impressed by a Gen Zer who first got into politics around the time of John Smith. A rare demographic indeed
ALL the gen z-ers I know store hot water in thermos flasks, take the Saturday telegraph, are well known TV commentators, have joyous spa days in London, have spent many years LIVING abroad not just VISITING, and also work as postwomen
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
A humourless low-IQ trans-activist dork who never has sex?
I'm more impressed by a Gen Zer who first got into politics around the time of John Smith. A rare demographic indeed
Another interesting point is that 'To The Manor Born' (1978) is before that poster's time and therefore unreasonable for her to know about it, but 'to the manner born' (Shakespeare, probably 1602) is not...
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 700 pieces of Russian artillery in a little more than a fortnight. Massive stockpiles from the Soviet era are being obliterated, now within Russia itself - with no prospect of replacement any time soon.
Russia's warfare is predicated on long-range demolition. It's glide bombs have been very impressive in replacing artillery in this role. But with several more Patriot systems arriving in Ukraine, Russian jets are going to be far too vulnerable to deliver them.
Russia's advance around Kharkiv seemed to have stalled. Indeed, recent reports suggest Russia is now losing ground. Putin's strategy of using up his men and finite machinery to force Ukraine to a settlement looks to be at risk of failure - and facing better quality weaponry, may suffer long term reversals. The arrival of F-16s and Mirage jets are going to make Crimea one giant pinata of Russian troops. The Kerch Straits supply ferries have already been hit and damaged; the Kerch Bridge is now in range of missiles.
If Ukraine can make Crimea a killing fields for Russian troops stationed there, there is over the next year or so the route for a final settlement: Ukraine cedes lands in the east, whilst getting the return of Crimea. That would be a blow from which Putin would not survive - literally.
I’m on my way to Kyiv. Literally. I’ll hand on the good news
Edit to add: I agree with you on the military outlook. Seems Russia cannot win this any more than Ukraine can win it - in the usual sense of taking all the land back/conquering the country. It’s a muddy, bloody impasse, and my impressions of Ukraine on this trip are of a people ground down and weary but absolutely not giving in, quite the opposite. They are quietly proud of their stoic endurance - and they should be
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
More significant is that the entire piece is a defence of his precious Brexit. Which the country has decided was a mistake. And desperately doesn't want to talk about having wasted a decade or more on it whilst ignoring the fabric of the nation collapsing. He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
It was striking how unpopular Brexit was with the carefully balanced audience last night.
Carefully balanced by party representation does not mean carefully balanced by Leave/Remain.
Penny Mordaunt is hectoring and constantly interrupting. Really hope she loses her seat. Ghastly woman.
Less of the misogyny please, referring to her sex as a derogatory point is beneath you. You could have said “ghastly person” but ghastly woman is so loaded with some retro sexist memories of “to the manor born” and all that.
I like how all the OnlyFans references were ok but "ghastly woman" was somehow noteworthy
I was being ever so serious. Heathener is suitably strong, apparently accomplished and confident to give it out and take it back - it would probs be more sexist to think anyone had to rein it in because she’s a she.
Yeah I don’t have a problem with you calling it out. But what is to the manor born?
Really? Penelope Kieth, Richard Bowles? Huge in the late 1970s.
Peter Bowles was in TTMB with Penelope Richard Briars was in the Good Life with Penelope
I know! Schoolboy error from me. Trying to wind up Heathener who is somehow about 70 and 17 at the same time. It’s not like To The Manor Born is an obscure TV series. It’s one from the classics of the age, and as has been said, both stands up well AND is an interesting social/historical commentary.
Funnily enough most people who know me in real life, as opposed to on here, mark me as typical GenZ in outlook and views. Which I take as a compliment.
A humourless low-IQ trans-activist dork who never has sex?
Your personal candidate profile needs more work if you hope to get a vote.
A random thought on Tactile Paving. Tactile Paving is road signs for visually impaired people eg "walk here" not "hazard" across the edge of a staircase or railway platform can have serious consequences. Why is it not regulated as seriously as road signs on the road? https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1799357567304692136
(For anyone wanting data - Tactile Paving is regulated by "Guidance", whilst Roadsigns are regulated by the "Traffic Signs Regulations and General Directions 2016 (as amended) (TSRGD)".
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
More significant is that the entire piece is a defence of his precious Brexit. Which the country has decided was a mistake. And desperately doesn't want to talk about having wasted a decade or more on it whilst ignoring the fabric of the nation collapsing. He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
It was striking how unpopular Brexit was with the carefully balanced audience last night.
Carefully balanced by party representation does not mean carefully balanced by Leave/Remain.
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 700 pieces of Russian artillery in a little more than a fortnight. Massive stockpiles from the Soviet era are being obliterated, now within Russia itself - with no prospect of replacement any time soon.
Russia's warfare is predicated on long-range demolition. It's glide bombs have been very impressive in replacing artillery in this role. But with several more Patriot systems arriving in Ukraine, Russian jets are going to be far too vulnerable to deliver them.
Russia's advance around Kharkiv seemed to have stalled. Indeed, recent reports suggest Russia is now losing ground. Putin's strategy of using up his men and finite machinery to force Ukraine to a settlement looks to be at risk of failure - and facing better quality weaponry, may suffer long term reversals. The arrival of F-16s and Mirage jets are going to make Crimea one giant pinata of Russian troops. The Kerch Straits supply ferries have already been hit and damaged; the Kerch Bridge is now in range of missiles.
If Ukraine can make Crimea a killing fields for Russian troops stationed there, there is over the next year or so the route for a final settlement: Ukraine cedes lands in the east, whilst getting the return of Crimea. That would be a blow from which Putin would not survive - literally.
Looking from the outside in government finances something doesn't seem to add up. We're under one of the highest tax burdens in peacetime but don't seem to get very much for our money. It feels like Labour are hoping that they will be able to spend the same money much more efficiently and be able to square that circle.
Maybe a super majority for Starmer will allow the Labour government to make radical changes? Blair's often said that he rather wasted the majorities he had in the 1st and 2nd term and it was only in the 3rd term that the transformation of public services started. Hopefully Starmer will have listened to that.
The higher tax burden is driven entirely by two components: ageing (health and pensions) and debt servicing. The latter reflects higher debt levels after Covid and the financial crisis, plus higher interest rates. Every other spending category, by and large, is flat or going down. Hence the feeling as working people that we're highly taxed and aren't getting much for it.
The lack of understanding among not just the public but the media too about the role of demographics in Western economic performance is a big problem.
We’ve been teaching about the challenges of ageing populations in school geography since the 90s, but somehow it’s not sunk in. We even had a live case study in Japan for a similar amount of time.
The dependency ratio in most Western countries is going inexorably upwards. There are more people needing state spending in old age, and fewer people of working age to pay for it. Britain, France and the US are not hit as hard as most but we’re still seeing the same trend. It means much more tax for the same outcomes.
It almost certainly means a shift to wealth and property taxation at some stage.
Older voters constitute most of the burden on the state and hold most of the wealth, which they furiously resent being touched.
"But I paid my taxes!" will be written on the tombstone of the Western democracies.
I'd almost say the problem is the other way around. What we have now is normal. But the boom of the post war period, driven by an unusually benign dependency ratio, gave an illusion of how generous the state could be.
I think that a fair point.
It's also pretty clear that a young economy is one with a lot of young workers. The roots of Japan and Italy's economic decline is demographics, and those demographics are hitting other parts of Europe including us now. They are impacting Korea, Taiwan etc too.
Having 25% of the population retired is a massive drain on an economy in terms of both workforce (increasingly needed in low productivity sectors of health and social care) and money going to pensions, benefits and health care. It doesn't really matter if the money and workforce are being directed by government or private provision, the opportunity cost for productive work is gone either way.
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 700 pieces of Russian artillery in a little more than a fortnight. Massive stockpiles from the Soviet era are being obliterated, now within Russia itself - with no prospect of replacement any time soon.
Russia's warfare is predicated on long-range demolition. It's glide bombs have been very impressive in replacing artillery in this role. But with several more Patriot systems arriving in Ukraine, Russian jets are going to be far too vulnerable to deliver them.
Russia's advance around Kharkiv seemed to have stalled. Indeed, recent reports suggest Russia is now losing ground. Putin's strategy of using up his men and finite machinery to force Ukraine to a settlement looks to be at risk of failure - and facing better quality weaponry, may suffer long term reversals. The arrival of F-16s and Mirage jets are going to make Crimea one giant pinata of Russian troops. The Kerch Straits supply ferries have already been hit and damaged; the Kerch Bridge is now in range of missiles.
If Ukraine can make Crimea a killing fields for Russian troops stationed there, there is over the next year or so the route for a final settlement: Ukraine cedes lands in the east, whilst getting the return of Crimea. That would be a blow from which Putin would not survive - literally.
I’m on my way to Kyiv. Literally. I’ll hand on the good news
Edit to add: I agree with you on the military outlook. Seems Russia cannot win this any more than Ukraine can win it - in the usual sense of taking all the land back/conquering the country. It’s a muddy, bloody impasse, and my impressions of Ukraine on this trip are of a people ground down and weary but absolutely not giving in, quite the opposite. They are quietly proud of their stoic endurance - and they should be
Fascinating time to be there. Would love to visit, but the Good Lady Wife would veto it any time soon.
Some chaps on here are a teensy weensy bit infatuated with @Heathener
Bang to rights. I am fairly convinced she is a superb comic creation - and I admire the handiwork. The absurd contradictions are magnificent - “I take the Saturday Telegraph” being the most recent
If she’s not a comic sockpupppet she’s a wild eccentric prone to fantasy, either way she adds to the gaiety of PB
It was interesting to catch a glimpse of Rayner and Mordaunt having a friendly word afterwards. I know they are both there to do a job, but why the performative anger when they are in reality more friendly towards each other.
One, because a debate is in part a performance, and two, maybe they did get genuinely angry during a heated moment but are capable of letting go of it once the moment passes.
Politicians are people, not automatons, they may train themselves and have strategies to employ but they won't be able to control themselves 100%. Has anyone here never gotten mad at a friend or loved one and quickly dialed it back once it was released?
And as i asked Sandpit, if it's thought they were basically acting, why assume the angry part was false rather than the friendly bit being false? The debate was over but a fake smile and friendliness is impossible?
Simplest explanation? They don't agree on many things but are not weirdos.
I have passionate arguments with friends - including about politics - which can get quite heated. We are still good friends. Its a sign of maturity, not hypocrisy. Friends are incredibly valuable and the best kind last for life; politics comes and goes
The fact Millennials refuse to be friends with anyone they disagree with is a bleak signal of their stupidity, not their noble purity
Wise words
I am just wondering if this is actually a generational thing, or is it more something to do with polarisation caused by internet use? I would also comment that most people I know in the real world don't really have fixed left or right political views. It is only a small (and declining) number who participate in the 'performance of reaction' which I think people are getting increasingly wise to.
I work in a mixed multicultural workplace with staff from age 18 to 75, probably 75% female. I don't know anything about the political views of the vast majority of them, and I don't think there is any real difference between the ages in terms of work ethic, or inclination to take offence.
I work in a very similar environment. I think there are very obvious generational differences but they are complex so generalising is difficult. One thing is one team have people in their 50's running a 'command and control' management system and people in their 20's doing the work seem to be fine with it.
One thing I would observe is that the attempts to roll out 'diversity equity and inclusion' initiatives by the (largely white, male) senior management are completely ignored by the mass of workers.
DEI is purely performative and doesn't really mean anything.
I read a management book which noted such things have been around for decades in one form or another yet things often seem unchanged or worse.
Their suggestion, and in fairness I don't know if it was backed up with evidence, was it works much better when genuinely voluntary, as people are usually happy to engage then, but make it mandatory and they switch off as it's a box tick or a lecture. And that can be counterproductive and cause resentment.
I did a session recently which was quite good as things go, felt like a genuine conversation and didnt do a common thing of dismissing any concerns, but they messed up by including an external video which was literally an anti-capitalist screen which barely even related to DEI.
Just so: there's definitely something in listening to other people with different experiences.
Why does it need to be ruined by a lecturing that you should feel a sense of shame for who you are too?
Since England has lost religion we no longer get God botherers just plain botherers.
56% of the population of England and Wales are still Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist or Jewish on the last census
Much of this is only very nominal. Especially when you remember that only one person in the family usually fills out the census form.
Most of the Christian responses will be cultural. Nominal C of E, never go near a church except for weddings and funerals. We inhabit one of the most irreligious polities on the face of the Earth.
Scotland still more so.
And the weddings and funerals in the C of E bit are only because English residents get a free subscription, so to speak, because it's the state cult.
I find the "count Christians by the number of people who go to church one" interesting, There are layers to the affiliation - committed, community, cultural and so on. I don't see why such are in some way 'invalid'.
There have been modern movements since at least the 1950s, and perhaps the 1930s or earlier, exploring concepts such as "the church outside the Church" and "secular faith". Iona and similar communities are in some way practical expressions of such movements. Writers from that earlier modernist period would be people such as Bishop John Robinson ("Honest to God") and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ("The Phenomenon of Man", "The Divine Milieu").
It's exactly the game the Humanist Association were playing when they managed to nobble .. er .. amend the census question. They have always claimed "we represent all the nonreligious in the population", when having just a few thousand "members" themselves.
They also play games with nebulous surveys - there was a funny one that was nailed by a philosopher a few years ago. It could have been filled in my any priest or bishop I have ever known and they would come out as "humanist".
Which is itself ironic because the word comes from humanist theologians such as Erasmus.
Yes. Two points. The decline in cultural Christianity is in many ways more alarming than the decline in actual attendance; and of course hard to measure.
And a question for non theist humanists: If humanism of the non theist sort is remotely plausible, why do humans, revered by humanists, do such terrible things.
Christians do this by 'fall and redemption'. It is not often noticed that the famous 'problem of evil' is tougher for humanists than it is (though it's tough) for theists.
Some chaps on here are a teensy weensy bit infatuated with @Heathener
Bang to rights. I am fairly convinced she is a superb comic creation - and I admire the handiwork. The absurd contradictions are magnificent - “I take the Saturday Telegraph” being the most recent
If she’s not a comic sockpupppet she’s a wild eccentric prone to fantasy, either way she adds to the gaiety of PB
@Peston Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
More significant is that the entire piece is a defence of his precious Brexit. Which the country has decided was a mistake. And desperately doesn't want to talk about having wasted a decade or more on it whilst ignoring the fabric of the nation collapsing. He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
It was striking how unpopular Brexit was with the carefully balanced audience last night.
Carefully balanced by party representation does not mean carefully balanced by Leave/Remain.
2019 was the Bbrexit referendum, but now Brexit only gets Remainers fired up for revenge.
Reform have moved on to immigration generally and don't seem bothered by Brexit much now. It's an embarrassment even to them.
This is the reality that confronts the state sector. Vat on private schools doesn't even have a remote bearing on it. And it's getting worse, not better.
Much the same could be said for transport. I've no doubt it's similar in health.
It can't be said for social care and social services because things are worse there.
Let me know if any party shows signs of at least appreciating the scale of the challenge. It might persuade me to vote for them.
The reality is every department of Government is in dire financial difficulty. All the parties of the centre and centre left need to come clean on taxation. In fairness only Reform are telling the truth that by cutting taxes they will have to decimate services.
I am not sure some of those voting Farage have the same Trumpian view of for example healthcare provision that he does.
Comments
This is Starmer and Labour's time and of course they will raise taxes and certainly struggle with multitudes of problems which they simply have no idea how to resolve or are frightened of the political consequences
I do not think it will be long until their honeymoon period ends, but in the meantime I genuinely hope the conservative party, or more specifically what is left of it, can regain their sanity and move to the centre where all elections are won
Starmer will find precisely the same.
Weak sauce all round I thought. I don’t think Mordaunt even believed what she was saying about £2000 of taxes. The Lib Dems got owned. And Farage seems to have had some good coaching.
I also think immigration will be kept high. They fill the fiscal gap.
This Tory Facebook ad seems to be conceding defeat?
(I suppose it’s not necessarily stupid to run a “who do you want to be the official opposition to a Labour government?” campaign given the state of the polls but it’s… different.)
https://x.com/jimwaterson/status/1799352632974225571
After saying about Sir Keir:
"I'd walk through blood to stop the man. He has deeply angered me and ripped the heart out of one of the core pillars of our local community. He is dirt."
I'd wish you every success, provided you don't help the SNP hold the seat.
Right now, I find the 15/2 with Ladbrokes (boosted) for Tories to secure 150-200 seats interesting.
Yes, they've had a bad week with Farage and D-Day, but there's still nearly a month to go and it wouldn't take much on the day itself for them to creep into the 155-175 seats range, particularly if Reform proves a damp squib. And that still represents losing c.200 seats.
DYOR.
Richi would not lie in a debate knowing it would be exposedHe would not abandon veterans on D-Day having made national Service a key campaign plankHe will not drown puppies on live TV
The Tories will not get under 50 seats.
And the weddings and funerals in the C of E bit are only because English residents get a free subscription, so to speak, because it's the state cult.
Without wishing to go over old ground and open up wounds, my point was Labour are not currently in Government and VAT has not been exacted upon private schools.
John Studholme, just about the first LD councillor on South Lakeland and certainly the man who brough Tim Farron to Westmorland seems to be standing against him as an independent.
https://www.tes.com/magazine/analysis/general/8-teacher-workforce-trends-recruitment-retention-pay
This is the reality that confronts the state sector. Vat on private schools doesn't even have a remote bearing on it. And it's getting worse, not better.
Much the same could be said for transport. I've no doubt it's similar in health.
It can't be said for social care and social services because things are worse there.
Let me know if any party shows signs of at least appreciating the scale of the challenge. It might persuade me to vote for them.
Yes, this is very limited data, but all additions to the collective are good
We’ve been teaching about the challenges of ageing populations in school geography since the 90s, but somehow it’s not sunk in. We even had a live case study in Japan for a similar amount of time.
The dependency ratio in most Western countries is going inexorably upwards. There are more people needing state spending in old age, and fewer people of working age to pay for it. Britain, France and the US are not hit as hard as most but we’re still seeing the same trend. It means much more tax for the same outcomes.
It almost certainly means a shift to wealth and property taxation at some stage.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pq4DuYUELRAU8DXV37tTgme-vIxKO8n9gW7MTgPIdXA/edit?usp=sharing
I’d note that many of those claiming that potential VAT couldn’t have had an effect if schools, also claimed that a non-enacted change in policy on dependents caused foreign university admissions to collapse.
"But I paid my taxes!" will be written on the tombstone of the Western democracies.
@Peston
Boris Johnson today calls Starmer “Sir Keir Schnorrer” (see attached). “Schnorrer” is the Yiddish word for beggar and scrounger. It is pretty offensive. It was part of the lingua franca of my grandparents and of my childhood. I find it unsettling to see Johnson appropriating it to describe someone whose wife is Jewish - and especially when he says “if Schnorrer gets in, he will immediately begin the process of robbing this country of its new-found independence and make the UK the punk of the EU”. What do you think? Am I being over sensitive?
https://x.com/Peston/status/1799356939945513340
has any one seen a comparison of pay and deductions and bills from eras to today ? Would be interesting to See!
Don't try and contrive outrage where none exists. I was - and still am - angry but I'd never advocate or encourage harm to SKS or anyone else, and would robustly condemn it if it ever occurred.
Now, back in your box.
I'm not sure what that means, if anything - whether the punishment is merely being saved for GE day, or whether it does mean the Tories will outperform at the GE. Turn out is the big difference here though. But overall, I'm unconvinced that the local BEs are telling us anything much that we should attend to this side of GE day.
Wasn't it ever thus?
Have you had a punt on turnout ?
Offsetting that is the thought that if the polls are reporting a number and there's one area that's better than the polls suggest, there can be areas where the reality is worse than the polls suggest and it feels like the South West is going to be worse for the Conservatives. Electoral Calculus suggest that Torbay, Exmouth & Exeter East and West Dorset are all Con holds but think they might all end up as LD gain.
There have been modern movements since at least the 1950s, and perhaps the 1930s or earlier, exploring concepts such as "the church outside the Church" and "secular faith". Iona and similar communities are in some way practical expressions of such movements. Writers from that earlier modernist period would be people such as Bishop John Robinson ("Honest to God") and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin ("The Phenomenon of Man", "The Divine Milieu").
It's exactly the game the Humanist Association were playing when they managed to nobble .. er .. amend the census question. They have always claimed "we represent all the nonreligious in the population", when having just a few thousand "members" themselves.
They also play games with nebulous surveys - there was a funny one that was nailed by a philosopher a few years ago. It could have been filled in my any priest or bishop I have ever known and they would come out as "humanist".
Which is itself ironic because the word comes from humanist theologians such as Erasmus.
He can't switch gears. He's a man of a different age. Desperately out of touch with the times.
That might have been one of history’s epic encounters.
Maybe that has changed as recently as yesterday when people formally became candidates and Rochdale just got his ducks in a row ahead of time.
Russia's warfare is predicated on long-range demolition. It's glide bombs have been very impressive in replacing artillery in this role. But with several more Patriot systems arriving in Ukraine, Russian jets are going to be far too vulnerable to deliver them.
Russia's advance around Kharkiv seemed to have stalled. Indeed, recent reports suggest Russia is now losing ground. Putin's strategy of using up his men and finite machinery to force Ukraine to a settlement looks to be at risk of failure - and facing better quality weaponry, may suffer long term reversals. The arrival of F-16s and Mirage jets are going to make Crimea one giant pinata of Russian troops. The Kerch Straits supply ferries have already been hit and damaged; the Kerch Bridge is now in range of missiles.
If Ukraine can make Crimea a killing fields for Russian troops stationed there, there is over the next year or so the route for a final settlement: Ukraine cedes lands in the east, whilst getting the return of Crimea. That would be a blow from which Putin would not survive - literally.
Edit to add: I agree with you on the military outlook. Seems Russia cannot win this any more than Ukraine can win it - in the usual sense of taking all the land back/conquering the country. It’s a muddy, bloody impasse, and my impressions of Ukraine on this trip are of a people ground down and weary but absolutely not giving in, quite the opposite. They are quietly proud of their stoic endurance - and they should be
A random thought on Tactile Paving.
Tactile Paving is road signs for visually impaired people eg "walk here" not "hazard" across the edge of a staircase or railway platform can have serious consequences.
Why is it not regulated as seriously as road signs on the road?
https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1799357567304692136
(For anyone wanting data - Tactile Paving is regulated by "Guidance", whilst Roadsigns are regulated by the "Traffic Signs Regulations and General Directions 2016 (as amended) (TSRGD)".
Basingstoke here we come..
Hope you chaps stuck some money on Baso!
It's also pretty clear that a young economy is one with a lot of young workers. The roots of Japan and Italy's economic decline is demographics, and those demographics are hitting other parts of Europe including us now. They are impacting Korea, Taiwan etc too.
Having 25% of the population retired is a massive drain on an economy in terms of both workforce (increasingly needed in low productivity sectors of health and social care) and money going to pensions, benefits and health care. It doesn't really matter if the money and workforce are being directed by government or private provision, the opportunity cost for productive work is gone either way.
Neither Labour nor Tories have committed to axing already announced rises, Resolution Foundation warns
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jun/08/tax-rises-of-800-a-year-coming-whoever-wins-uk-election-thinktank-finds
This isn’t quite true, as aren’t the Tories suggesting that they would protect pensioners (and no one else) from fiscal drag ?
If she’s not a comic sockpupppet she’s a wild eccentric prone to fantasy, either way she adds to the gaiety of PB
And a question for non theist humanists: If humanism of the non theist sort is remotely plausible, why do humans, revered by humanists, do such terrible things.
Christians do this by 'fall and redemption'. It is not often noticed that the famous 'problem of evil' is tougher for humanists than it is (though it's tough) for theists.
barring last moment form filling foolishness,
Reform have moved on to immigration generally and don't seem bothered by Brexit much now. It's an embarrassment even to them.
I am not sure some of those voting Farage have the same Trumpian view of for example healthcare provision that he does.