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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,572

    This is the problem with Sunak lying on national television. He got the immediate sugar rush of the stumbling Starmer response and this morning's adulatory Tory press headlines. Now he gets four weeks of the actual truth being shoved in his face. On balance, it's not a plus.

    I was saying during the debate that he came away from the Truss debate thinking he had won and it rapidly unravelled. Watch this do the same. Getting caught repeating a lie 25 times won't help, as he'll now have to defend the lie and already looks shifty.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765

    The politics of envy.

    But putting that to one side, all the polling seems to indicate that a lot more people are better disposed to Labour than to the Tories, so I may be more in tune with most people than a dual national member of the Midlands managerial class!

    Us horny handed men of toil keep you chatterati in your villas by the sea.

    On your point however the polling indicates voters are not well disposed to the Tories full stop. Labour are sort of meh but will be the chief beneficiaries from the Tories unpopularity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Roger said:

    Interesting views from Dehenna Davison Tory MP and Mhairi Black from the SNP. Two of the youngest female MPs in Parliamernt. Both were of a single mind and both thought it was an age issue.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=newsnight+june+3rd#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:2d91a9f9,vid:QjTrk9rr6u0,st:0
    The Observer leader writer was unimpressed:

    I wonder if Dehenna Davison could accurately describe what the impact of the Equality Act amendment in question would be. The fact she conflates clarifying the law on sex as a PC to protect single-sex spaces with being anti equal marriage suggests she might not be able to.

    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1797917439797420326
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Leon said:

    No, the entire debate is going to change, the world will not be recognisable
    There are some generational geopol challenges with a realistic chance of crystallising in the next parliament. US abandonment of nato and Russian test of Article V, use of a nuke in Ukraine, Chinese blockade / annexation of Taiwan. Then in part associated with these, there’s the risk of a proper collapse in the market for US Treasuries and loss of USD as global reserve currency.

    But these are trivial in the context of AGI and formal disclosure of non human intelligence interacting with earth. The latter being more likely pre-2029 but both probably >50% chance in the next parliament. And then there’s there’s the chance for a tangible advance in age extension tech, only an outside bet for this parliament but presumably won’t lag AGI by too much.

    Our political debate is tiresome, trivial and pointless in the context of all this and hardly anyone seems to grasp this.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861
    Jonathan said:

    Sure, but the point is that it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that private medicine is not the answer, nor the best option.
    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,355
    In other (TTRPG) news, there's an interesting-looking new system called DC20 that's just launched its Kickstarter and is already very funded. Seems to be a mix of 5e and PF2, with a slimmed down approach in many areas and interesting attempt to avoid dump stats, from the little I've seen so far. Getting lots of praise from big name YouTube channels.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    s

    Jeune École have entered the chat

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeune_École

    The answer is that the defence industry needs to learn the lesson of the space industry. Making everything slower and more expensive, then saying “military equipment inflation” and shrugging isn’t going to cut it anymore
    I like the comparison to the space industry, and the way the old school was turned upside-down by the new startups in under a decade. Boeing postponed their launch again last week, as SpaceX launched three times at a fraction of the cost.

    Everyone’s building bigger and better tanks and air defences, and the Ukranians are now eating their lunch with $1k use-once grenade drones that can blow a $10m tank half way to the moon.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    Us horny handed men of toil keep you chatterati in your villas by the sea.

    On your point however the polling indicates voters are not well disposed to the Tories full stop. Labour are sort of meh but will be the chief beneficiaries from the Tories unpopularity.

    I do not live in a villa by the sea. It is a semi-detached regency townhouse and the beach is five minutes away ;-)

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861

    That's some heroic spin!

    I don't think so - last nights poll showed Sunak winning by 85% with 2019 conservative voters and this poll by another organisation seems to confirm it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,686
    Roger said:

    Interesting views from Dehenna Davison Tory MP and Mhairi Black from the SNP. Two of the youngest female MPs in Parliamernt. Both were of a single mind and both thought it was an age issue.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=newsnight+june+3rd#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:2d91a9f9,vid:QjTrk9rr6u0,st:0
    Yes, I saw that too.

    It is very much an age issue, but not entirely. Mrs Foxy is fine with Trans rights too.

    There obviously is a body of feminist thought that is very sceptical of the Trans rights agenda, but feminists are not of one voice on this, and much of the anti Trans agenda comes from older men, so a strange alliance.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765

    I do not live in a villa by the sea. It is a semi-detached regency townhouse and the beach is five minutes away ;-)

    Best of luck then :smiley:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,561
    Sporting has just edged out its spread on Con seats to 126/134.

    Any polls expected today? We have had rather a glut, but the next lot should be post-Farage, and therefore quite informative.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    I was saying during the debate that he came away from the Truss debate thinking he had won and it rapidly unravelled. Watch this do the same. Getting caught repeating a lie 25 times won't help, as he'll now have to defend the lie and already looks shifty.

    Yes, by lying and getting so quickly caught out the story is developing not necessarily in Sunak's favour. It just reinforces all the negatives so many voters have about Tory dishonesty.
  • I think this debate may need to be seen in the context of Friday’s debate once that has happened.

    Now that Sunak and Starmer have defined it on the lines of immigration, tax etc, I do wonder if this favours Farage’s return. Particularly if some defections are lined up for Friday. “Why have Diet Coke when you can have Full Fat?”

    Sunak’s decent performance however may stave off some defectors.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great, but for others it was terrible. The point being that it’s perfectly reasonable for other people not to trust it. Just because you pay for it, doesn’t make it good.

    What I saw was speed, private rooms, coffee machines, big tvs and life threatening infections.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,027
    Dura_Ace said:

    That's not really an option because they are both fairly shagged out. India have committed to Rafale/STOBAR. South Korea are building their own and are unlikely to be impressed by the state of the British shipbuilding art. Australia might have been a remote option if they get a sufficiently loony right wing government but AUKUS is rapidly hollowing out their naval budget,
    Would India refuse a BOGOF deal? Look I’m desperate, I really need to sell these carriers. Maybe tell them, “well we’ve got the guys from Pakistan coming round to have a look later, so don’t miss out.”
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,561

    Best of luck then :smiley:
    Sounds like Norfolk, in which case the beach will be getting a little nearer each year. :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2024

    The “toolmaker” story is contested. To some on the left his father was “Factory Owner of the Oxted Tool Company” - we simply don’t know as Companies House has no records. He may have been “owner” or “sole trader” - but if SKS wants to introduce this, he should expect scrutiny.
    As for that,

    https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2020/03/keir-starmer-sensible-radical

    'Factory Owner of the OTS' is a suspiciously unbalanced expression. It could be an old garage or railway arch especially in the old days before the Thatcher years wrecked the metalbashing industries of the urban peripheries. And the fact that the name does not come up in Grace's Guide suggests that the business was either very small or non-existent.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Listening to R4 this morning you couldn't move for discussion around Lab's £2,000 tax rise.

    This is, or Rishi hopes it will be, the £350m on the NHS of the election campaign.

    Who cares if it's true everyone is talking about it so job done for Rishi.

    Come on people we learned this in 2016.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,207

    It's just you dont want it replaced by a pile diver thumping away to install next door's ground heat pump.
    That's shocking. i've just had a neighbour explaining to me why we should have a heat pump and to seem interested I foolishly asked what one was.............

  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    I think this sums up the election albeit in a way @Alanbrooke and co won't want to hear


    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1798259060049162717
    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh

    Good line from
    @Scarlett__Mag on how the public aren’t listening to Sunak:

    “It’s a bit like getting a call from your ex boyfriend. You’ve had enough of them. You don’t want to hear their brilliant plan of why it’s all actually a really great idea for you to get back together.”
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    @Simon_Nixon

    On reflection, perhaps Starmer’s decision to let the Tory lie run for a news cycle was genius. What was left of Sunak’s (ill-deserved) reputation for honesty now in tatters…
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    I don't think so - last nights poll showed Sunak winning by 85% with 2019 conservative voters and this poll by another organisation seems to confirm it

    That's 2019 Conservatives who watched the debate, not all 2019 Conservative voters. There is a very big difference.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    TOPPING said:

    Listening to R4 this morning you couldn't move for discussion around Lab's £2,000 tax rise.

    This is, or Rishi hopes it will be, the £350m on the NHS of the election campaign.

    Who cares if it's true everyone is talking about it so job done for Rishi.

    Come on people we learned this in 2016.

    It's not the same.

    In 2016 the debate was about the size of the number.

    Today, the story is that the number was a lie, Richi knew it was a lie, he was warned not to use the lie, he lied anyway, he's a liar.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    TOPPING said:

    Listening to R4 this morning you couldn't move for discussion around Lab's £2,000 tax rise.

    This is, or Rishi hopes it will be, the £350m on the NHS of the election campaign.

    Who cares if it's true everyone is talking about it so job done for Rishi.

    Come on people we learned this in 2016.

    It’s the Brexit Bus all over again.

    “It’s not £2,000!”

    “How much is it then?”

    The problem for Labour is the perception that they are tax raisers - even if they’re not really much different from the Tories.

    Talk about how much Tories have raised taxes through fiscal drag…
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,184
    edited June 2024

    One of the questions facing the next government is going to be what the cheap wins are- the things that are unglamorous (not new hospitals), fairly cheap, but ungum the sticking points in the system. Because there clearly are some.

    And on tax bombshellgate... one of the tactics Starmer used with the Corbynites was giving them just enough rope to hang themselves. Not always pretty, and it doesn't always work. But one of the marks of a good chess player is that, if they lose a pawn by a blunder, they manage to get compensation for that.
    Yes, there are some. Case in point, my mum is being discharged from hospital today (yay!) after a prolonged stay. During this stay, she was referred to another department in the same hospital for a different issue and was given an outpatient appointment. Transport was arranged, to be cancelled if she was still in hospital (the outpatient dept in that case would send someone up to her ward). Ward she was on were also appraised of the situation and appointment.

    But, the outpatient appointment is today. So she's presently, if all has gone to plan, on a half hour ambulance/patient transport ride back home after discharge from the ward. At around 3.30pm another ambulance/patient transport will come to fetch her back to the same hospital for her outpatient appointment and then, after that, bring her home again. My dad and brother were happy to sit with her somewhere at the hospital all day waiting for the appointment if the ward she was on needed her out on time for the bed etc, but they were insistent that they wouldn't change the transport booking. So, one journey becomes three, costs more and substantially worse for my mum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,958

    The media narrative written before the debate? That media narrative? The media narrative only in Tory newspapers speaking to the remaining Tory voters?

    How is one poll saying Sunak won definitive and narrative-creating and another poll saying Starmer won "sad" and "straw-clutching?

    A poll is a poll is a poll.

    BTW - WELCOME BACK! Genuinely, great to see you back posting!
    What really will matter is this weekend's polls. By then any effect of the debate will have filtered into the system.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    eek said:

    I think this sums up the election albeit in a way @Alanbrooke and co won't want to hear


    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1798259060049162717
    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh

    Good line from
    @Scarlett__Mag on how the public aren’t listening to Sunak:

    “It’s a bit like getting a call from your ex boyfriend. You’ve had enough of them. You don’t want to hear their brilliant plan of why it’s all actually a really great idea for you to get back together.”

    It wont change the election outcome Starmer will still be PM it may change the size of his majority. For the record I wont be voting for Starmer or Sunak there are only presentational differences between them. Nothing major on policy.
  • To Rochdale Pioneers. I agree with what you say about Starmer. He is wooden and looked confused when he was taken to task by Sunak.I dread this man becoming PM. There is no passion. A fridge turned off. The Artful dodger. He avoids answering questions. No charisma. He appears indifferent and unemotional . A real turnoff.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,262
    ToryJim said:

    Whilst I tend to think that defence spending should rise, I don’t think the absolute level of spending is the entire ball game. How you spend money is just as important as how much money you spend. A genuine strategic defence and security review, not a mislabelled cost cutting exercise, should be conducted. It is clear the risks and threats to peace and security are growing not shrinking and look likely to be persistent over the medium term horizon and that requires a robust response and a retuning of posture.
    Indeed. Drones, as DavidL says, are revolutionary, but part of the reason they are revolutionary is that they're cheap. It's not just about spending more money, it's about how we spend it. We have allies, in Ukraine and in fellow NATO member Turkey, who are experts now in drone warfare. We can learn from them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861

    That's 2019 Conservatives who watched the debate, not all 2019 Conservative voters. There is a very big difference.

    It is the narrative though
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351

    It’s the Brexit Bus all over again.

    “It’s not £2,000!”

    “How much is it then?”

    That's not the Labour line this morning.

    It's a lie. Richi is a liar. The Civil Service say he's a liar.

    That's the line.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,262
    DavidL said:

    I wonder how many of their polling sample even watched it. In fact, do we have a number for how many watched it? I think this polling reflects the current polling where Starmer is streets ahead. I don't agree with their conclusion on the debate but actually this result is more significant. Starmer remains comfortably ahead in the public's perception.
    Who won the debate polling filters out only those who (sat they) watched the debate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    Scott_xP said:

    It's not the same.

    In 2016 the debate was about the size of the number.

    Today, the story is that the number was a lie, Richi knew it was a lie, he was warned not to use the lie, he lied anyway, he's a liar.
    Politcian calls other politician a liar the public will just roll their eyes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Scott_xP said:

    That's not the Labour line this morning.

    It's a lie. Richi is a liar. The Civil Service say he's a liar.

    That's the line.
    MRDA…..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,262
    TimS said:

    It’s going to be £2,000 non stop between now and the election. This is the new 350m a week.

    “Signed off by the Treasury perm sec” apparently - so the civil service are supporting the Tory campaign.

    BBC reports:

    The chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying that the Conservatives’ assessment of their tax plans "should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service".

    The letter from James Bowler, the Treasury permanent secretary, risks undermining Rishi Sunak’s claim in last night’s debate that Labour’s plans include £38bn of uncosted spending, which he says would mean £2,000 of tax rises per working household.

    In a letter to Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Bowler writes: "As you will expect, civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative Party’s document 'Labour’s Tax Rises' or in the calculation of the total figure used ... the £38bn figure used in the Conservative Party’s publication includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service".

    "I agree that any costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service," he adds.

    For context: Last night, Sunak repeatedly claimed that Labour's spending plans would result in a £2,000 tax rise for Britons - saying "independent Treasury officials have costed Labour's policies and they amount to a £2,000 tax rise for every working family".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861

    What really will matter is this weekend's polls. By then any effect of the debate will have filtered into the system.
    What really matters is the poll on the 4th July which Starmer will win though the margin remains the debate
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,794

    It’s the Brexit Bus all over again.

    “It’s not £2,000!”

    “How much is it then?”

    The problem for Labour is the perception that they are tax raisers - even if they’re not really much different from the Tories.

    Talk about how much Tories have raised taxes through fiscal drag…
    Starmer should have shut it down immediately, I grant you. But the implication of your post is that politicians should just make up and old shit about their opponents and keep repeating it. I’d prefer they based their debating points in fact. You?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,941

    Sporting has just edged out its spread on Con seats to 126/134.

    Any polls expected today? We have had rather a glut, but the next lot should be post-Farage, and therefore quite informative.

    Was speaking to a friend yesterday - doesn't like the Tories, doesn't like Starmer, doesn't like immigration and voted for Brexit. In that sense he sounds like an ideal Reform supporter, but he doesn't like Farage either after his fawning over Trump. So it'll be interesting to see whether Nige is the still the force the media make him out to be, or is even his somewhat niche brand becoming stale.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    edited June 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    It's not the same.

    In 2016 the debate was about the size of the number.

    Today, the story is that the number was a lie, Richi knew it was a lie, he was warned not to use the lie, he lied anyway, he's a liar.
    You're missing the big picture. The whole debate is now about whether and by how much Lab will raise taxes.

    This is the £350m all over again and you're not seeing it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,859

    Politcian calls other politician a liar the public will just roll their eyes.
    But it's pretty much the BBC and the Treasury Permanent Secretary calling Sunak a liar.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765

    To Rochdale Pioneers. I agree with what you say about Starmer. He is wooden and looked confused when he was taken to task by Sunak.I dread this man becoming PM. There is no passion. A fridge turned off. The Artful dodger. He avoids answering questions. No charisma. He appears indifferent and unemotional . A real turnoff.

    I can just see him negotiating with Macron who is quite fast on his feet . By the time Starmer has thought of his answer Macron will be holding a press conference saying the UK has agreed to all his demands.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    TOPPING said:

    You're missing the big picture. The whole debate is now about whether and by how much Lab will raise taxes.

    This is the £350m all over again and you're not seeing it.
    It really isn't. The story today is the civil service calling the Tories liars
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,958

    Starmer should have shut it down immediately, I grant you. But the implication of your post is that politicians should just make up and old shit about their opponents and keep repeating it. I’d prefer they based their debating points in fact. You?
    That bus left a long time ago frankly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,678
    Dura_Ace said:

    That's not really an option because they are both fairly shagged out. India have committed to Rafale/STOBAR. South Korea are building their own and are unlikely to be impressed by the state of the British shipbuilding art. Australia might have been a remote option if they get a sufficiently loony right wing government but AUKUS is rapidly hollowing out their naval budget,
    Offer them to the new European navy ? :smile:
    (For nothing.)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,904

    Several members of my family have use private medical care and it most certainly in their cases was the best option not least my daughter who had an urgent private scan that ruled out cancer
    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    @DPJHodges

    3 reasons Bowler letter is a hammer-blow for Sunak. Totally undermines all Tory tax attacks. The £2,000 figure was a personal line used by Sunak, so now goes to his own character. And it allows Labour to paint any attack on them from here to polling-day as "another Tory lie".
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,184
    Carnyx said:

    As for that,

    https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2020/03/keir-starmer-sensible-radical

    'Factory Owner of the OTS' is a suspiciously unbalanced expression. It could be an old garage or railway arch especially in the old days before the Thatcher years wrecked the metalbashing industries of the urban peripheries. And the fact that the name does not come up in Grace's Guide suggests that the business was either very small or non-existent.
    I look forward to the election season 2039 when the inspiring young leader of Reform, set for a landslide according to the polls, repeatedly references her father's humble working class roots as a flint knapper - indeed one who was forced to increasingly moonlight as a war correspondent to make ends meet thanks to Labour increasing the VAT on stone-based sex aids.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861

    Was speaking to a friend yesterday - doesn't like the Tories, doesn't like Starmer, doesn't like immigration and voted for Brexit. In that sense he sounds like an ideal Reform supporter, but he doesn't like Farage either after his fawning over Trump. So it'll be interesting to see whether Nige is the still the force the media make him out to be, or is even his somewhat niche brand becoming stale.
    Wasn't just Trump but now moving onto anti vax and denying net zero

    Indeed the full right wing menu
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,262
    moonshine said:

    There are some generational geopol challenges with a realistic chance of crystallising in the next parliament. US abandonment of nato and Russian test of Article V, use of a nuke in Ukraine, Chinese blockade / annexation of Taiwan. Then in part associated with these, there’s the risk of a proper collapse in the market for US Treasuries and loss of USD as global reserve currency.

    But these are trivial in the context of AGI and formal disclosure of non human intelligence interacting with earth. The latter being more likely pre-2029 but both probably >50% chance in the next parliament. And then there’s there’s the chance for a tangible advance in age extension tech, only an outside bet for this parliament but presumably won’t lag AGI by too much.

    Our political debate is tiresome, trivial and pointless in the context of all this and hardly anyone seems to grasp this.
    When you say "formal disclosure of non human intelligence interacting with earth", can I check... you mean UFOs?

    No, UFOs are not going to be the big story of the next parliament.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    Chris said:

    But it's pretty much the BBC and the Treasury Permanent Secretary calling Sunak a liar.
    So when will they clarify what the number will be ? How much is Starmer going to raise taxes ? £2000 looks light given all the houses, NHS pay rises and electricity capacity he has announced.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999

    It is the narrative though

    It's something that the Tories are consoling themselves with. There's a bit difference between that and a wider narrative.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Scott_xP said:

    It really isn't. The story today is the civil service calling the Tories liars
    So how much will Lab's tax rises be, then.

    Asks everyone.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    A Hunt the Tories might be glad to change the initial consonant in his name.

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1798265905622684010?s=46
  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    I suspect it comes down to where the cyclist hit / was hit by the car..
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,605
    TOPPING said:

    You're missing the big picture. The whole debate is now about whether and by how much Lab will raise taxes.

    This is the £350m all over again and you're not seeing it.
    Not sure. Maybe.

    The 350m was powerful because it had some truth in it... the counter riposte of... oh its 280m actually is weak. And it was clear to the public that leaving EU would mean no more membership fees.

    By contrast, Starmer can look into the camera and say we aren't raising your taxes, the Tories have 26 times.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,309

    Indeed. Drones, as DavidL says, are revolutionary, but part of the reason they are revolutionary is that they're cheap. It's not just about spending more money, it's about how we spend it. We have allies, in Ukraine and in fellow NATO member Turkey, who are experts now in drone warfare. We can learn from them.
    By the end of this, we’ll be getting trained by the Ukrainians, rather than the other way around.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,462
    TOPPING said:

    So how much will Lab's tax rises be, then.

    Asks everyone.
    Does anyone know where to find the civil service costings? Genuinely interested to see what they actually said.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    3 reasons Bowler letter is a hammer-blow for Sunak. Totally undermines all Tory tax attacks. The £2,000 figure was a personal line used by Sunak, so now goes to his own character. And it allows Labour to paint any attack on them from here to polling-day as "another Tory lie".

    To quote St Diane of Hackney

    “More lies from Starmer.”
  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    TOPPING said:

    So how much will Lab's tax rises be, then.

    Asks everyone.
    Where are the Tory spending cuts going to come from....
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,904
    edited June 2024
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    Your aunt. She hit the cyclist, not the other way round.

    Possibly also the bus driver? But I was always taught to ignore any lights/hand gestures - it remains your responsibility to ensure the road is clear.

    When you say very fast - are we talking Tour de France or 15mph?
    When you say undertaking - do you mean filtering forward in the marked, fully segregated (solid white line) cycle lane as advised in the Highway Code?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,678
    TOPPING said:

    You're missing the big picture. The whole debate is now about whether and by how much Lab will raise taxes.

    This is the £350m all over again and you're not seeing it.
    This is what I'm seeing.

    The chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying that the £38 billion/£2,000 tax attack “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service”

    He said he had reminded ministers of this

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1798252445321343456

    Though, of course, civil servants were used to do the calculations.

    All round evidence of bad faith, IMO.

    In any event, anyone with an ounce of common sense will realise that the country's financial problems aren't going to change with a change of government. The question is rather who is likely to make incremental improvements, rather than the opposite.

    On the evidence of the last decade, that's not the Tories. There's an outside chance that it might be Labour.

    Regarding "£350m all over again", fool me once, etc.
    Brexit failed as a practical project to improve the country (or the NHS). Everyone knows that, and that's what they'll remember.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,791
    TimS said:

    Claire Coutinho did a good job on Today just now. Kept repeating the £2,000 line and actually made a reasonable fist of answering the “what are you proud of in the last 14 years”.

    They briefly have their mojo back. Labour needs to find a similar £ accusation that the Tories struggle to rebut.

    On a recent The Rest is Politics, they discussed briefing the line to take and Rory mentioned hearing Priti Patel once use the same 7-word phrase seven times during a two and a half minute interview.

    Rishi seemed last night to have been over-briefed, and was determined to get in his lines regardless of context, which is why, especially at the start, he seemed to be shouting nonsense over the moderator.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone know where to find the civil service costings? Genuinely interested to see what they actually said.
    Shouldnt it be the OBR who make the statement ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    eek said:

    I suspect it comes down to where the cyclist hit / was hit by the car..
    Nearside front wing. So mid-turn. Not broadside.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    rkrkrk said:

    Not sure. Maybe.

    The 350m was powerful because it had some truth in it... the counter riposte of... oh its 280m actually is weak. And it was clear to the public that leaving EU would mean no more membership fees.

    By contrast, Starmer can look into the camera and say we aren't raising your taxes, the Tories have 26 times.
    Well he can but we all know taxes are going up if no-one is cutting spending. And Labour dont cut spending,
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,309
    Eabhal said:

    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    We’ll never be in a position to give everyone an urgent scan. That’s the problem.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Eabhal said:

    Your aunt. She hit the cyclist, not the other way round.

    Possibly also the bus driver? But I was always taught to ignore any lights/hand gestures - it remains your responsibility to ensure the road is clear.

    When you say very fast - are we talking Tour de France or 15mph?
    When you say undertaking - do you mean filtering forward in the marked, fully segregated cycle lane as advised in the Highway Code?
    Thanks

    Very fast as in four grand bike and lycra caning it. Undertaking yes filtering. Which of course is legal/etc. He flew past and across a gap/junction in stationary traffic, which had waved my aunt across.

    What could be the legal position. Is there a legal position? What about insurance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,678
    edited June 2024

    BBC reports:

    The chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying that the Conservatives’ assessment of their tax plans "should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service".

    The letter from James Bowler, the Treasury permanent secretary, risks undermining Rishi Sunak’s claim in last night’s debate that Labour’s plans include £38bn of uncosted spending, which he says would mean £2,000 of tax rises per working household.

    In a letter to Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Bowler writes: "As you will expect, civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative Party’s document 'Labour’s Tax Rises' or in the calculation of the total figure used ... the £38bn figure used in the Conservative Party’s publication includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service".

    "I agree that any costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service," he adds.

    For context: Last night, Sunak repeatedly claimed that Labour's spending plans would result in a £2,000 tax rise for Britons - saying "independent Treasury officials have costed Labour's policies and they amount to a £2,000 tax rise for every working family".
    Well they were, as noted in "includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service" involved in the production of the figures, as Tory SPADs presented the civil service with scenarios, and made them produce costings.
    They then cobbled together the BS £2k figure, in part using those costings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,355
    Also, this is more difficult for Labour because we all know there's a very high chance they'll form the next government. So the question is relevant. Conservative cuts in the future are rather less so. The luxury of impending opposition.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    Lennon said:

    I have sympathy for her - but your Aunt is at fault here. The cyclist had a green light and right of way. She was turning across the traffic and should ensure that it was clear before proceeding. Whilst the bus driver wasn't helpful (to put it mildly), his indication was simply that he wasn't going anywhere and she was free to cross in front of him. She should have moved such that she was in front of the bus, and edging out into the potential cyclists path until she could see that the full width of the road was clear to cross.
    Excellent thanks - and the speed was not a factor?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,462

    Shouldnt it be the OBR who make the statement ?
    Looks like it's done on individual policy announcements:

    E.g. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65c25dfa3f6aea0013c1551f/Opposition_Costing_-_National_Warm_Homes_Plan.pdf

    Opposition policy costing – National Warm Homes Plan – Labour

    This would be a significant expansion in delivery and associated exchequer spending compared to the current
    system and current future commitments. On the basis of the assumptions provided this costing broadly estimates
    spending of £12bn - £15bn per year on home energy efficiency compared to around £2bn per year currently
    committed in the next Parliament for home energy efficiency, heat decarbonisation and public sector
    decarbonisation combined.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,605

    Well he can but we all know taxes are going up if no-one is cutting spending. And Labour dont cut spending,
    I think both parties have committed to taxes going up in reality because they aren't changing the thresholds.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,561

    Was speaking to a friend yesterday - doesn't like the Tories, doesn't like Starmer, doesn't like immigration and voted for Brexit. In that sense he sounds like an ideal Reform supporter, but he doesn't like Farage either after his fawning over Trump. So it'll be interesting to see whether Nige is the still the force the media make him out to be, or is even his somewhat niche brand becoming stale.
    Interesting, Stark, but I'll need to see some firmer evidence before I change my view that Nige's decision is bad for Tories, so-so for Labour, and a gift for the LDs.

    Tempted to buy LD seats at 44 but will wait until Friday to see if Sir Ed can improve on the Harry Worth impression.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Morning.

    Didn’t watch the debate but I gather shitty Sunak is now in deep water from the Treasury.

    I’m sick and tired of the lying tories and hope they are consigned to the dustbin of history.

    have a nice day :)

    xx
  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    TOPPING said:

    Nearside front wing. So mid-turn. Not broadside.
    So your aunt and the bus driver didn't see the cyclist and the cyclist can't have seen your aunt's car.

    I think it ends up being one of those things but the cyclist shouldn't have been going so fast given that the rest of the traffic was stationary and there was a junction with a gap ahead..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,615
    eek said:

    Where are the Tory spending cuts going to come from....
    Great question. But not one discussed at length on R4 this morning.
  • TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    Are you saying the cyclist was in the cycle lane?

    Sounds to me that your aunt was in the wrong, although understandably so. She turned right across the traffic that had priority when she couldn't see it was safe to do. The bus driver, whilst no doubt well meaning, had given her incorrect information. But you do ultimately need to see if the road is clear rather than rely on a gesture.

    The cyclist may not be wholly blameless in the sense they might have thought there was some risk passing the bus at some speed at a junction as they'd not be visible. But they do sounds as if they did, in fact, have right if way.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,075
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile

    PB CYCLISTS. And LAWYERS.

    A question.

    Aunt last night driving home was waiting at a traffic light junction to turn right across traffic. Opposite direction traffic backed up and static leaving a gap for the right turn. Lights green. Bus is first in the line ahead of the junction and waves her on. She moves across and is hit head on by a cyclist undertaking the bus. Chaos ensues. My aunt says the cyclist was going very fast but his (and her) light was green.

    Who's at fault.

    Picture showing junction and from direction of travel of aunt (my one of the month).

    I believe being flashed/gestured to carry on with a manoeuvre by another vehicle is a no-no (ie we’re supposed to ignore them), though of course we all do it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    And a new Savanta poll has Starmer winning the debate.

    My guess is the debate makes no difference at all. People have already decided the election.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    tlg86 said:

    Looks like it's done on individual policy announcements:

    E.g. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65c25dfa3f6aea0013c1551f/Opposition_Costing_-_National_Warm_Homes_Plan.pdf

    Opposition policy costing – National Warm Homes Plan – Labour

    This would be a significant expansion in delivery and associated exchequer spending compared to the current
    system and current future commitments. On the basis of the assumptions provided this costing broadly estimates
    spending of £12bn - £15bn per year on home energy efficiency compared to around £2bn per year currently
    committed in the next Parliament for home energy efficiency, heat decarbonisation and public sector
    decarbonisation combined.
    Long term investment - could easily be justified borrowing
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,605
    Nigelb said:

    Well they were, as noted in "includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service" involved in the production of the figures, as Tory SPADs presented the civil service with scenarios, and made them produce costings.
    They then cobbled together the BS £2k figure, in part using those costings.
    George Osborne on his podcast said they tried this tactic with Brexit and it made no difference. People just didn't believe the numbers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,678
    Eabhal said:

    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    See my post upthread about low cost scanners.

    (Incidentally, it's a small symptom of what's happening with UK tech that these were developed in Asia. The UK invented MRI; others have now picked up the baton.)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,904
    TOPPING said:

    Thanks

    Very fast as in four grand bike and lycra caning it. Undertaking yes filtering. Which of course is legal/etc. He flew past and across a gap/junction in stationary traffic, which had waved my aunt across.

    What could be the legal position. Is there a legal position? What about insurance.
    Not sure. If the guy has a four grand bike he'll be onto a lawyer asap I'm afraid. Probably has it included as part of his insurance.

    FWIW, your aunt should be up front with her insurer about it. The driver who hit my partner was not prosecuted by the police due to lack of evidence, but failed to respond to their insurer when my partner's lawyer issued the claim. This has left the driver pretty much uninsurable, which the police considered a decent outcome in the circs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,859
    Nigelb said:

    This is what I'm seeing.

    The chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying that the £38 billion/£2,000 tax attack “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service”

    He said he had reminded ministers of this

    https://x.com/hzeffman/status/1798252445321343456

    Though, of course, civil servants were used to do the calculations.

    All round evidence of bad faith, IMO.

    ...
    The letter itself is quoted by the BBC (my emphasis)

    As you will be aware, when costing the policies of opposition parties HM Treasury and the wider civil service established guidance set out in the Directory of Civil Service Guidance.
    As per this guidance, the costings produced by HM Treasury and the wider Civil Service are published on the gov.uk website.
    As you will expect, civil servants were not involved in the production or representation of the Conservative Party's document 'Labour Tax Rises' or in the calculation of the total figure used.
    In your letter you highlight that the £38bn figure used in the Conservative Party's publication includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service and published online by HM Treasury.
    I agree that any costings derived from other sources or produced by other organisations should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,861
    Eabhal said:

    Great!

    But don't you think everyone should be able to have an urgent scan, not just those who have the disposable income/savings to afford it?

    The reason the NHS is failing rich people is that too few poor people are getting early interventions. Doom loop.
    In theory absolutely but in practice light years away

    There are a lot of ordinary people who are struggling with the COL crisis who will make sacrifices when it comes to their health as was the case with our daughter
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    @PippaCrerar

    Team Sunak were delighted with their £2000* tax attack line on Labour after debate last night. But this morning it has become issue of honesty. Problematic.

    (*over four years btw)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    TOPPING said:

    Thanks

    Very fast as in four grand bike and lycra caning it. Undertaking yes filtering. Which of course is legal/etc. He flew past and across a gap/junction in stationary traffic, which had waved my aunt across.

    What could be the legal position. Is there a legal position? What about insurance.
    The road is two lanes wide, and the bus in one lane gestured to your aunt that he was staying put. It’s on her to check the other lane is clear as she crosses it, knowing that there’s a green light.

    That said, traffic in the other lane should be prepared to stop within the distance it can see to be clear, even though it has right of way.

    Your aunt’s insurance company is probably going to have to get the bike repaired.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,441
    Welsh first minister to lose confidence vote as 2 Labour MPs are off sick

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv224x3pmv9o

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,351
    @DPJHodges

    One other point. If the Prime Minister has deliberately misrepresented a Civil-Service document for political purposes, surely that must be a potential breach of the civil-service code. He's not just put a slant on their figures. He's wrongly assigned authorship.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,791
    Sandpit said:

    I like the comparison to the space industry, and the way the old school was turned upside-down by the new startups in under a decade. Boeing postponed their launch again last week, as SpaceX launched three times at a fraction of the cost.

    Everyone’s building bigger and better tanks and air defences, and the Ukranians are now eating their lunch with $1k use-once grenade drones that can blow a $10m tank half way to the moon.
    The other lesson from Boeing (and SpaceX) is having engineers at the top table matters. Being run by bean counters obsessed by costs and subsisting on Pentagon subsidies leads eventually to doors falling off.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,904
    Sandpit said:

    The road is two lanes wide, and the bus in one lane gestured to your aunt that he was staying put. It’s on her to check the other lane is clear as she crosses it, knowing that there’s a green light.

    That said, traffic in the other lane should be prepared to stop within the distance it can see to be clear, even though it has right of way.

    Your aunt’s insurance company is probably going to have to get the bike repaired.
    The bike will be the cheap bit, depending on injury, loss of earnings etc
  • eek said:

    So your aunt and the bus driver didn't see the cyclist and the cyclist can't have seen your aunt's car.

    I think it ends up being one of those things but the cyclist shouldn't have been going so fast given that the rest of the traffic was stationary and there was a junction with a gap ahead..
    That was unwise in terms of the cyclist's own safety, but it's not the same as being at fault. Ultimately, the driver cut across traffic which had priority in circumstances where they saw a friendly but wrong hand gesture, but couldn't actually see whether or not there was traffic on the cycle lane they were cutting across.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,724

    Indeed. Drones, as DavidL says, are revolutionary, but part of the reason they are revolutionary is that they're cheap. It's not just about spending more money, it's about how we spend it. We have allies, in Ukraine and in fellow NATO member Turkey, who are experts now in drone warfare. We can learn from them.
    It's also a mental issue.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop and all that.

    Making decision and doing things quicker - both on and off the battlefield.

    Take artillery - the British military is still wedded to the idea that you line up your SPGs, set up the tea tent, have a conference, start shooting. They talk about shoot and scoot, but...

    Instead of trying to add armour to the SPG - the Americans got to the stage of speccing an SPG heavier than a tank - the world is moving to systems that can stop, shoot and be gone in seconds.

    Archer - which we are using as an interim, while a Proper System is specced to Unique British Requirements - is much much cheaper, has lower maintenance costs and manning requirements.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 775
    I missed the first 20 minutes or so, but didn't think either came across very well and gave what I saw a 0-0 draw. I thought Sunak was rude, spoke over Starmer too often and should have been put in his box by the moderator. Starmer was just dull 9no surprise), but I thought a couple of times he showed some fire when refuting lies from Sunak that had clearly riled him.

    More interestingly, my daughter, who is much less political than me and probably more right wing (but still liberal) than her peers, thought Sunak was "very irritating".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,765
    @TSE hope all goes well
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,724
    TOPPING said:

    Nearside front wing. So mid-turn. Not broadside.
    I look at that road layout and I can't instantly see the right thing to do.

    Therefore, that is a bad layout.
This discussion has been closed.