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It has been an inauspicious start to the campaign for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
It has been an inauspicious start to the campaign for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

CCHQ recalls message which accused politicians refusing to knock on doors. In some areas dwindling funds are a worry ?? https://t.co/fYxqdcFHqS

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    You can say that again
  • Options
    I am utterly baffled, what is going on here.
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    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    He’s a bit buggered as well as his “USP” of being ex services in his seat where that’s quite useful is matched by his Labour opponent and might even be to those in the services (but not Mercer’s wife as she has been vocal on) every bit as good a service record as Mercer’s.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,290

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Its half-term holiday and Rishi Sunak never pre-announced the election and its surprising CCHQ that MPs are on holiday?

    People will have booked holidays months ago for this week.

    I'd call him a muppet, but I think that's derogatory to much loved children's TV characters.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    So Starmer hasn't sealed it yet?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    You're saying today's lot are just more stupid ?

    (A not unpersuasive claim.)
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,363

    I am utterly baffled, what is going on here.

    It's what happened in 1997 and 2010. The party in power no longet has the will to try to win again.
    Campaigning is something you have to want to do. It takes effort to put differences aside and campaign for a common position that you might not 100% support. If you don't think you're going to win, you don't try. If you no longer like the people in charge enough to make it worth the effort, you don't try. If you have grown disillusioned with the slog, you don't try.
    That's what's going on here.
    How much impact this will have on the result - who knows? And indeed we'll never know because we won't have a counterfactual.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    Only in the sense that Susan Hall bet was; a parcel to get rid of before the music stops
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1795116543757418819

    This tweet is a good summary of the National Service Plan. A sample:

    "So why are the Tories doing this?

    One unlikely-but-theoretically-possible answer is that they know full well the GE is lost, and have decided that they want to lose it on an issue that can't be tied back in any way to their 14-year reign of error.

    That way, the slate is wiped clean for a spell in opposition.

    After all, nobody's talking about Rwanda. Nobody's talking about the carer billing crisis. Nobody's talking about a thousand other issues. Everyone's talking about national service. So from that narrow POV, the plan is working.

    But another hint can be found in comments made by an anonymous Tory insider to the FT: "For a long time people just weren't listening to anything we said. By announcing the election, we are forcing people to engage in a conversation." In other words, the notion that all-news-is-good-news. The counter to that, of course, is that's it's easy to be in the news for all the wrong reasons - just ask a serial killer.

    From a political POV they seem to be trying to chip votes away from Reform. There's polling to suggest that many of those who support Reform would look on a National Service policy kindly. But what isn't clear (but will be soon) is the impact it will have on the majority in other parts of the political spectrum who hate the idea.
    "
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311
    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    Really - a deficit of 15-20 points which has been baked in for months, evidenced in by elections and local elections is somehow going to be turned into a 5-point Conservative lead in just five weeks.

    How? Why do you think that? 1992 was 32 years ago and the polling was very different.

    I really don't understand why you would say that.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    CatMan said:

    https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1795116543757418819

    This tweet is a good summary of the National Service Plan. A sample:

    "So why are the Tories doing this?

    One unlikely-but-theoretically-possible answer is that they know full well the GE is lost, and have decided that they want to lose it on an issue that can't be tied back in any way to their 14-year reign of error.

    That way, the slate is wiped clean for a spell in opposition.

    After all, nobody's talking about Rwanda. Nobody's talking about the carer billing crisis. Nobody's talking about a thousand other issues. Everyone's talking about national service. So from that narrow POV, the plan is working.

    But another hint can be found in comments made by an anonymous Tory insider to the FT: "For a long time people just weren't listening to anything we said. By announcing the election, we are forcing people to engage in a conversation." In other words, the notion that all-news-is-good-news. The counter to that, of course, is that's it's easy to be in the news for all the wrong reasons - just ask a serial killer.

    From a political POV they seem to be trying to chip votes away from Reform. There's polling to suggest that many of those who support Reform would look on a National Service policy kindly. But what isn't clear (but will be soon) is the impact it will have on the majority in other parts of the political spectrum who hate the idea.
    "

    Yeah, that seems very unlikely given this won't be the only talking point for the next five weeks!
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    'Inauspicious' is a delightful use of understatement.

    It's competing favourably with Hirohito's


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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    Is this the new return of Truss meme ?

    I think we first need to have the 'is this a tragedy or farce' debate before we look fur another narrative.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Unless they are standing again not surprising some Tory Ministers put finishing their boxes over campaigning.

    Backing Reform in Telford will just let Labour win the seat
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    CatMan said:

    https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1795116543757418819

    This tweet is a good summary of the National Service Plan. A sample:

    "So why are the Tories doing this?

    One unlikely-but-theoretically-possible answer is that they know full well the GE is lost, and have decided that they want to lose it on an issue that can't be tied back in any way to their 14-year reign of error.

    That way, the slate is wiped clean for a spell in opposition.

    After all, nobody's talking about Rwanda. Nobody's talking about the carer billing crisis. Nobody's talking about a thousand other issues. Everyone's talking about national service. So from that narrow POV, the plan is working.

    But another hint can be found in comments made by an anonymous Tory insider to the FT: "For a long time people just weren't listening to anything we said. By announcing the election, we are forcing people to engage in a conversation." In other words, the notion that all-news-is-good-news. The counter to that, of course, is that's it's easy to be in the news for all the wrong reasons - just ask a serial killer.

    From a political POV they seem to be trying to chip votes away from Reform. There's polling to suggest that many of those who support Reform would look on a National Service policy kindly. But what isn't clear (but will be soon) is the impact it will have on the majority in other parts of the political spectrum who hate the idea.
    "

    Sounds like a cunning plan.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    One for those appeasers who think Ukraine should be forced to cede territory to Russia:

    "Yahidne, Ukraine – Aged between 90 days and 91 years, almost everyone in this northern Ukrainian village was forced into a subterranean hell – and some did not come out alive.

    Drunk on stolen booze and impunity, Russian soldiers humiliated, beat, raped, tortured and murdered the villagers, according to survivors – casually, for the slightest objection, a criticising glance or just on a sadistic whim."

    "In March 2022, Russian soldiers herded 368 villagers, including six dozen children, into the basement of their elementary school. The villagers spent 27 days in the damp, rancid and noisy darkness with no electricity and heat, with little food and so little fresh air that most were hypoxic to the point of catatonia.

    They stayed there right next to the dead – 17 people, including 10 elderly villagers who died there – but Russian soldiers allowed other captives to bring them out and bury them only days later."

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/5/27/putins-worldview-inside-a-ukrainian-village-turned-death-camp

    This is the reality of what Ukrainians will face.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    One future features Andy Street the other features the return of Boris and Farage enobled into shadow cabinet.


  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Why not ?
    It's certainly memorable enough not to forget.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311
    HYUFD said:

    Unless they are standing again not surprising some Tory Ministers put finishing their boxes over campaigning.

    Backing Reform in Telford will just let Labour win the seat

    Presumably publicly backing a candidate from another party is automatic explusion so Lucy Allan can no longer be a member of the Conservative Party..
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    CatMan said:

    From a political POV they seem to be trying to chip votes away from Reform. There's polling to suggest that many of those who support Reform would look on a National Service policy kindly. But what isn't clear (but will be soon) is the impact it will have on the majority in other parts of the political spectrum who hate the idea."

    The harder you try and attract the nutters, the more ordinary voters you repel...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    How much do you want to bet?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    The journos are going to tucker themselves out before manifestos launch at this rate. Its too full on.
    Redfield appear not to have bothered this week.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @BethRigby

    @lucyallen is suspended from Conservative party as she backs Reform candidate in the election. I remember Telford well - this was the seat from where Johnson launched his Tory manifesto in 2019 > More bad news and fire fighting for Sunak as he tries to get back on front foot
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/1795116543757418819

    This tweet is a good summary of the National Service Plan. A sample:

    "So why are the Tories doing this?

    One unlikely-but-theoretically-possible answer is that they know full well the GE is lost, and have decided that they want to lose it on an issue that can't be tied back in any way to their 14-year reign of error.

    That way, the slate is wiped clean for a spell in opposition.

    After all, nobody's talking about Rwanda. Nobody's talking about the carer billing crisis. Nobody's talking about a thousand other issues. Everyone's talking about national service. So from that narrow POV, the plan is working.

    But another hint can be found in comments made by an anonymous Tory insider to the FT: "For a long time people just weren't listening to anything we said. By announcing the election, we are forcing people to engage in a conversation." In other words, the notion that all-news-is-good-news. The counter to that, of course, is that's it's easy to be in the news for all the wrong reasons - just ask a serial killer.

    From a political POV they seem to be trying to chip votes away from Reform. There's polling to suggest that many of those who support Reform would look on a National Service policy kindly. But what isn't clear (but will be soon) is the impact it will have on the majority in other parts of the political spectrum who hate the idea.
    "

    Yeah, that seems very unlikely given this won't be the only talking point for the next five weeks!
    Sure. Given the evidence of the past few weeks, I can well imagine that the Tories will produce plenty more disasters for us to talk about during the campaign...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    How much do you want to bet?
    Doug is an accomplished ironist as well as pinniped.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    Scott_xP said:

    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.

    That’s beyond bizarre!
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @sturdyAlex

    Starmer: Gives meaty keynote speech, takes dozens of Qs from press.

    Sunak: Needed a day off four days into the campaign, does a 3-min pool clip in which he looks exhausted & repeats "we have a plan to take bold action" eight times.

    CCHQ: Starmer doesn't have the stamina.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Scott_xP said:

    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.

    Whilst CCHQ’s idiocy cannot be underestimated it’s also very easy for political opponents to make mischief - how can it be proven that they didn’t call the Lib Dem chap and the lie would already be running on social media.

    It’s the Tories’ fault for being incompetent but it’s also worth being sceptical despite how much you will be loving it.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,363
    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    Post Office scandal: Police to deploy 80 detectives for criminal inquiry
    Exclusive: Investigation will dig into potential perjury offences and perverting the course of justice by senior leaders and Fujitsu

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/27/post-office-scandal-police-to-deploy-80-detectives-for-criminal-inquiry
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.
  • Options
    Rishi Sunak says it's his fault for the messy start to the Tory general election campaign

    "Of course this is my responsibility"

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795127252897706063

    Oh Rishi, I do feel sorry for you.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Bookmark this one...

    @Steven_Swinford
    Rishi Sunak tells @Peston he is committed to staying in the UK for 'years to come' after Lord Goldsmith claims that he will 'disappear off to California' if Tories lose election

    'It's just simply not true. This is my home. My team just got promoted back in the Premiership and I hope to be watching them for years to come in the Premier League'
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    stodge said:

    DougSeal said:

    It can only get better from here for the Tories. The media will want a new narrative in a few days. Still think a small Conservative majority is value.

    Really - a deficit of 15-20 points which has been baked in for months, evidenced in by elections and local elections is somehow going to be turned into a 5-point Conservative lead in just five weeks.

    How? Why do you think that? 1992 was 32 years ago and the polling was very different.

    I really don't understand why you would say that.
    Irony?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex

    Starmer: Gives meaty keynote speech, takes dozens of Qs from press.

    Sunak: Needed a day off four days into the campaign, does a 3-min pool clip in which he looks exhausted & repeats "we have a plan to take bold action" eight times.

    CCHQ: Starmer doesn't have the stamina.

    I suspect they will literally have nothing left to throw out but personal attacks on Starmer once they have finished dredging the Shit Policy Ideas box.

    We shall be treated to a barrage of stuff about him being a friend to terrorists shortly.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    The journos are going to tucker themselves out before manifestos launch at this rate. Its too full on.
    Redfield appear not to have bothered this week.

    They had a British journalist talking about the election campaign on RTË radio this lunchtime and he couldn't stop laughing when asked if the Tories had any chance at all, or about the National Service policy.

    I do get the impression that journalists are completely failing to establish any professional detachment when reporting on the election. They need to get out there and talk to some real people, rather than sharing memes with each other on twitter.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Scott_xP said:

    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.

    That’s beyond bizarre!
    No one has phoned me today. :disappointed:
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,962
    Theresa May, champion of the civil service (From the Guardian Politics Live Blog):

    "Theresa May, the former PM, has said she is is concerned that it “has become almost the done thing if you’re not getting something through as a politician to blame the civil service, and I think that is wrong.”

    Speaking at the Hay festival in Powys, the former prime minister described the existence of a politically neutral civil service as “a huge benefit here in the UK”, and that “if ministers aren’t getting what they want through”, as she experienced when her Brexit bill was blocked, then “it’s down to them and it’s not down to the civil service”.

    May seemed to be referring in particular to Liz Truss, another former PM who recently published a book accusing the civil service, and other establishment forces, of obstructing radical things she wanted to achieve as a minister.

    May also said that she hoped, if it had been raining when she called an election outside No 10 in 2017, that those around her “might have provided [her] with an umbrella”.
    "
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @mikeysmith

    This morning @SteveBakerFRSA published a blog post entitled “Where I Am”.

    Curiously he failed to mention that “where he is” is ON A BEACH IN GREECE.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    Yes.

    But only because it was never ultimately sent in the first place.

    Google gives you an option to unsend an email for a couple of seconds after you send it, which effectively means it waits a few seconds giving you an option to unsend it in which case it doesn't actually send it.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Scott_xP said:

    Bookmark this one...

    @Steven_Swinford
    Rishi Sunak tells @Peston he is committed to staying in the UK for 'years to come' after Lord Goldsmith claims that he will 'disappear off to California' if Tories lose election

    'It's just simply not true. This is my home. My team just got promoted back in the Premiership and I hope to be watching them for years to come in the Premier League'

    I hear on the twitter that the plan is that they wait until Modi is stepping down then Mrs Rishi goes for top job in India. Like a Bill and Hilary deal.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    I think it might work if both the sender and all the recipients are using the same MS Exchange server, and even then you'd need to be lucky with the timing.

    If you've got external recipients, all that happens is that they get a plaintive "This message has been recalled" as a followup - usually it only serves to draw attention to the original gaffe!
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew
  • Options

    The journos are going to tucker themselves out before manifestos launch at this rate. Its too full on.
    Redfield appear not to have bothered this week.

    They had a British journalist talking about the election campaign on RTË radio this lunchtime and he couldn't stop laughing when asked if the Tories had any chance at all, or about the National Service policy.

    I do get the impression that journalists are completely failing to establish any professional detachment when reporting on the election. They need to get out there and talk to some real people, rather than sharing memes with each other on twitter.
    I do agree with this.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    It's not inauspicious, it's insanity.
    AlsoLei said:

    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    I think it might work if both the sender and all the recipients are using the same MS Exchange server, and even then you'd need to be lucky with the timing.

    If you've got external recipients, all that happens is that they get a plaintive "This message has been recalled" as a followup - usually it only serves to draw attention to the original gaffe!
    Yes, I think I've had one total success once with an internal email, not even worth bothering usually.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @Peston
    Me: “Lord Goldsmith is just the latest of your colleagues who say that if you lose, you're going to pack everything up and go to California with your family. Do you want to address that?”

    Rishi Sunak: “It’s simply not true. I mean, it's just simply not true. I'm committed to staying in the UK for years to come. Of course, of course I am. Of course, and this is my home.”

    @gavinesler
    From the responses to this it seems not everyone entirely believes this clear commitment to stop the boats. Sorry. I mean stop in the UK. Committed, however.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
    I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.
    18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
    Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.

    Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,866
    I quite like Sunak’s idea that national service will foster a sense of community and belonging.

    He’s probably right, but it will take decades for that feeling to filter down the generations. Probably fifty years or more.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    O/T

    "The weirdest things about English
    RobWords"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lhxxiqqlQY
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Half of them were too young!!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    I quite like Sunak’s idea that national service will foster a sense of community and belonging.

    He’s probably right, but it will take decades for that feeling to filter down the generations. Probably fifty years or more.

    It's not a terrible idea to have. I don't think it would have gone down super well, but if it had been announced in a speech with that as the theme, maybe it would not have immediately provoked so many visceral reactions about fining or imprisoning young people who don't want to be drafted.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Probably about 75% to 25% in favour of joining the EEC.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Probably about 75% to 25% in favour of joining the EEC.
    Nobody besides MPs and Lords voted in favour of joining the EEC.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    The journos are going to tucker themselves out before manifestos launch at this rate. Its too full on.
    Redfield appear not to have bothered this week.

    They had a British journalist talking about the election campaign on RTË radio this lunchtime and he couldn't stop laughing when asked if the Tories had any chance at all, or about the National Service policy.

    I do get the impression that journalists are completely failing to establish any professional detachment when reporting on the election. They need to get out there and talk to some real people, rather than sharing memes with each other on twitter.
    I think the industry passed that point a long time ago. There's still some people trying, but it's not the culture anymore. Now it is all about political commentary, and adding your own spin is almost expected, as is contributing to the entertainment of things.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @matt_dathan

    Now Johnny Mercer twice refuses to rule out punishing parents if their teenage children refuse to take part in national service.

    He tells @JPonpolitics that the details of the policy will be decided by an "apolitical" royal commission. @TimesRadio
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex

    Starmer: Gives meaty keynote speech, takes dozens of Qs from press.

    Sunak: Needed a day off four days into the campaign, does a 3-min pool clip in which he looks exhausted & repeats "we have a plan to take bold action" eight times.

    CCHQ: Starmer doesn't have the stamina.


    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    30m
    As for the ‘sleepy Keir is too old to be PM’ line, I probably wouldn’t be calling 61yos clapped out if my core vote was itself mostly over 60

    https://x.com/gabyhinsliff
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    About 1/3rd of us were too young to vote in 1975.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited May 27

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
    I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.
    18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
    Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.

    Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
    The servic es haven't been doing too well lately on the sexual abuse front in the news, it must be said. A possible [edit] but not necessarily the single reason for some mothers' visceral reaction to the proposal.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    And it's the shunt away from Rishi's "centralist" view that will be the final thing that destroys the Tory party....
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Probably about 75% to 25% in favour of joining the EEC.
    Some of my Methodist and similar friends were very doubtful because the founding document was the Treaty of Rome.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    Me: “Lord Goldsmith is just the latest of your colleagues who say that if you lose, you're going to pack everything up and go to California with your family. Do you want to address that?”

    Rishi Sunak: “It’s simply not true. I mean, it's just simply not true. I'm committed to staying in the UK for years to come. Of course, of course I am. Of course, and this is my home.”

    @gavinesler
    From the responses to this it seems not everyone entirely believes this clear commitment to stop the boats. Sorry. I mean stop in the UK. Committed, however.

    I believe Rishi on this one. He's not going to pack everything up, they'll keep a couple of properties in the UK to make use of from time to time. It may even be listed as their main residence for the next parliamentary cycle. Might depend on tax rules.

    I do recall an Arthur C Clarke short story where some British astronaughts on a base contrive to delay their return in order to get a tax break when they return.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
    I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.
    18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
    Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.

    Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
    The servic es haven't been doing too well lately on the sexual abuse front in the news, it must be said. A possible [edit] but not necessarily the single reason for some mothers' visceral reaction to the proposal.
    Mothers shouldn’t worry too much unless they expand the national service to a stint in the Met Police.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    Had this national service been in force when I was 18 my career would never have got off the ground. I'd gone to Vogue House seeing if they were looking for assistants and they said they weren't but gave me the name of a well known photographer who shared a studio on Kings Road.

    She was a New Yorker nutty as a fruitcake and gave me the job on the spot. If this bonkers Tory plan had been around then instead of shooting for Vogue I'd probably be bombing Gaza
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    There's something in what you say perhaps, though I still think it likely the reaction would have been to blame not going right enough because that is the most comforting answer to the base, but it is not as though Rishi is a firm centrist, he's been all over the place.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    Meanwhile, for our Scotch friends...

    Swinney last week

    Last week, he boasted: ‘I’m the most popular political party leader in Scotland. That’s a huge advantage to the SNP, and we’re going to use it.

    His approval rating is minus three. That he is displaying Nicola Sturgeon hubris on the strength of Angus Robertson numbers does not bode well for the SNP. They might wish to avoid reality but reality is coming for them.


    Swinney this week

    The SNP leader John Swinney has conceded his party “has a lot of ground to cover” to catch up with Labour in the polls before the general election.

    Swinney, who took over as SNP leader from Humza Yousaf three weeks ago, said the party was already united behind him and “very focused on the election campaign”.

    Asked whether that meant the SNP was now fighting this election as the “underdog”, the first minister said: “That’s an interesting way to put it.

    “Actually it is quite a good way to fight an election campaign"
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Scott_xP said:

    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.

    CASINO IS READY TO SERVE
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    Roger said:

    Had this national service been in force when I was 18 my career would never have got off the ground. I'd gone to Vogue House seeing if they were looking for assistants and they said they weren't but gave me the name of a well known photographer who shared a studio on Kings Road.

    She was a New Yorker nutty as a fruitcake and gave me the job on the spot. If this bonkers Tory plan had been around then instead of shooting for Vogue I'd probably be bombing Gaza

    You never know Roger, after a stint in the Artists Rifles in Borneo you might have become the British Robert Capa.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Probably about 75% to 25% in favour of joining the EEC.
    60% to stay in, the lowest percentage of any age group according to this:

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    And it's the shunt away from Rishi's "centralist" view that will be the final thing that destroys the Tory party....
    Well. Sunak is overseeing this downward spiral, and losses to Reform. Yet he was also a Brexiteer Boris lover until it paid him not to be, and committed to policies like Rwanda until the end. So centrist is a stretch - the people who hated this government in 2019 were given absolutely no reason to cross over and replace the Reform types.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile, for our Scotch friends...

    Swinney last week

    Last week, he boasted: ‘I’m the most popular political party leader in Scotland. That’s a huge advantage to the SNP, and we’re going to use it.

    His approval rating is minus three. That he is displaying Nicola Sturgeon hubris on the strength of Angus Robertson numbers does not bode well for the SNP. They might wish to avoid reality but reality is coming for them.


    Swinney this week

    The SNP leader John Swinney has conceded his party “has a lot of ground to cover” to catch up with Labour in the polls before the general election.

    Swinney, who took over as SNP leader from Humza Yousaf three weeks ago, said the party was already united behind him and “very focused on the election campaign”.

    Asked whether that meant the SNP was now fighting this election as the “underdog”, the first minister said: “That’s an interesting way to put it.

    “Actually it is quite a good way to fight an election campaign"

    Has Swinney ever been seen in the same room as Sunak?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    As soon as you see "recall request" you ignore it, and read it, because you know it must be interesting and people are frightful gossips.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Scott_xP said:

    This can't be true, can it?

    @joerichlaw
    CCHQ has been frantically calling up some strange people to fill ‘shortlists’ for these seats. A friend of mine, who is already selected as a LibDem Parliamentary candidate, got a call. Really odd - especially when they are blocking so many @Conservatives from standing.

    CASINO IS READY TO SERVE
    Casino for Telford. The new Lucy Allan
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan

    Now Johnny Mercer twice refuses to rule out punishing parents if their teenage children refuse to take part in national service.

    He tells @JPonpolitics that the details of the policy will be decided by an "apolitical" royal commission. @TimesRadio

    Punishing the parents of adults?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Notably more Eurosceptic than the rest;

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    62% In in the BES panel survey against 72% overall.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile, for our Scotch friends...

    Swinney last week

    Last week, he boasted: ‘I’m the most popular political party leader in Scotland. That’s a huge advantage to the SNP, and we’re going to use it.

    His approval rating is minus three. That he is displaying Nicola Sturgeon hubris on the strength of Angus Robertson numbers does not bode well for the SNP. They might wish to avoid reality but reality is coming for them.


    Swinney this week

    The SNP leader John Swinney has conceded his party “has a lot of ground to cover” to catch up with Labour in the polls before the general election.

    Swinney, who took over as SNP leader from Humza Yousaf three weeks ago, said the party was already united behind him and “very focused on the election campaign”.

    Asked whether that meant the SNP was now fighting this election as the “underdog”, the first minister said: “That’s an interesting way to put it.

    “Actually it is quite a good way to fight an election campaign"

    “Actually it is quite a good way to fight an election campaign"

    I'm more positive of SNP chances than many others, but this is a particularly stupid line, since I'm pretty sure the best way to fight an election campaign is to be 20 points ahead.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
    I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.
    18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
    Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.

    Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
    I would have thought that it would be impossible to restrict it to men, even if they wanted to!

    They'll have to have a system of exemptions - including for pregnancy, and for people with caring responsibilities.

    But what about illness and disability? Will there be a system of assessments, reviews, and appeals like there is for PIP?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Had this national service been in force when I was 18 my career would never have got off the ground. I'd gone to Vogue House seeing if they were looking for assistants and they said they weren't but gave me the name of a well known photographer who shared a studio on Kings Road.

    She was a New Yorker nutty as a fruitcake and gave me the job on the spot. If this bonkers Tory plan had been around then instead of shooting for Vogue I'd probably be bombing Gaza

    You never know Roger, after a stint in the Artists Rifles in Borneo you might have become the British Robert Capa.
    Different skillset. You had to be brave to be Robert Capa
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    Is it? What if that generational skew is bound up with opposition to the existing Conservative government and it evolves once they're out of office?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan

    Now Johnny Mercer twice refuses to rule out punishing parents if their teenage children refuse to take part in national service.

    He tells @JPonpolitics that the details of the policy will be decided by an "apolitical" royal commission. @TimesRadio

    Punishing the parents of adults?
    Yes, they are finding new ways of making it seem ridiculous.

    If you're an adult you will do national service. But you are a child still so we'll publish your parents if you don't.

    I get they are getting lots of questions and need to answer somehow, but since the policy is for a review to figure out most details, stop speculating terrible details!
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,576
    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    One possible immediate problem for Corbyn is that those who'd be his usual campaign team in the constituency, and his most enthusiastic wider group of supporters, Momentum, can't do without losing their Labour membership.

    In time he'll get round that - as there's a whole infrastructure of organisations outside Labour on the far left, including his own 'P&J Project'. But it might take a bit of time to work things out, decide who's doing what, sign off and print literature. Work out who's prepared to jump ship and back you, who is to be trusted with important roles. And so on.

    Sunak calling the election as a surprise one may have caught them a bit on the hop as may have thought they had plenty of time to plan all this over the summer if was held in autumn.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    There's something in what you say perhaps, though I still think it likely the reaction would have been to blame not going right enough because that is the most comforting answer to the base, but it is not as though Rishi is a firm centrist, he's been all over the place.
    In 2010 remember after Brown lost the general election Labour MPs and members voted for Blairite David Miliband, only the unions elected Ed Miliband and unions have no vote in the Conservative party. Labour only then really shifted left under Ed
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cookie said:

    AlsoLei said:

    "Recalling" an email?

    Hahaha. Fucking idiots.

    Has anyone ever successfully recalled an email?
    I guess strictly speaking, if they had then nobody would know.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    How did the Boomers vote in 1975?
    Notably more Eurosceptic than the rest;

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    62% In in the BES panel survey against 72% overall.
    Probably a reflection of it being seen as a capitalist club with the bigger split being on the Left.

    My dad voted out in 1975 and is very proud of this fact.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex

    Starmer: Gives meaty keynote speech, takes dozens of Qs from press.

    Sunak: Needed a day off four days into the campaign, does a 3-min pool clip in which he looks exhausted & repeats "we have a plan to take bold action" eight times.

    CCHQ: Starmer doesn't have the stamina.


    gabyhinsliff
    @gabyhinsliff
    ·
    30m
    As for the ‘sleepy Keir is too old to be PM’ line, I probably wouldn’t be calling 61yos clapped out if my core vote was itself mostly over 60

    https://x.com/gabyhinsliff
    Are they actually trying the 'too old' line?! He may end up being the oldest PM in 50 years, but that's more a sign of how youthful most of our PMs have been since then.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    There's something in what you say perhaps, though I still think it likely the reaction would have been to blame not going right enough because that is the most comforting answer to the base, but it is not as though Rishi is a firm centrist, he's been all over the place.
    In 2010 remember after Brown lost the general election Labour MPs and members voted for Blairite David Miliband, only the unions elected Ed Miliband and unions have no vote in the Conservative party. Labour only then really shifted left under Ed
    Fair point, but they then went that route with gusto once it was set.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited May 27
    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Had this national service been in force when I was 18 my career would never have got off the ground. I'd gone to Vogue House seeing if they were looking for assistants and they said they weren't but gave me the name of a well known photographer who shared a studio on Kings Road.

    She was a New Yorker nutty as a fruitcake and gave me the job on the spot. If this bonkers Tory plan had been around then instead of shooting for Vogue I'd probably be bombing Gaza

    You never know Roger, after a stint in the Artists Rifles in Borneo you might have become the British Robert Capa.
    Different skillset. You had to be brave to be Robert Capa
    You could build up your resilience by doing a photo book on Hartlepool where you invite random rapscallions to share a lobster lunch with you at Hartlepool’s third best seafood emporium and snap a photo at intervals where you tell them what you think of their home town.

    It could be published posthumously as “Roger, a photographic montage of imminent death” with all proceeds to Russian children whose parents had their yachts confiscated.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnny Mercer comes across like such an arsehole.

    If he loses his seat he is not going to take it well.

    I suspect relatively few of them are.

    It's one of the vibesy differences to 1997. Then I suspect that most Conservatives knew the game was up and took their punishment like men.
    It will be interesting to see who gets the blame.

    It may depend on exactly who, and how many, survive.

    In one future, BoZo, Brexit and all his works gets the blame for destroying the party and the Conservative and Unionist Party rises from the ashes.

    In another, deposing BoZo becomes the original sin, and the swivel eyed loons take the Tory brand even further away from voters.
    If Sunak, Hunt and Cameron lead the Tories to landslide defeat obviously the latter will be the end result. The Tory grassroots will say if only they had kept Bozza they might have won again like 2019 and the party will shift right in opposition.

    Whereas ironically had Boris been allowed to lead the party to defeat it might have been centrists, maybe even Rishi himself, who could have taken back the party in opposition
    And it's the shunt away from Rishi's "centralist" view that will be the final thing that destroys the Tory party....
    Not necessarily, it will probably get the Conservatives back to 30 to 35% by winning back the Reform voters Rishi and Hunt have lost.

    Whether it can then win back voters lost to Labour depends on how a Labour government performs on the economy
This discussion has been closed.