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It has been an inauspicious start to the campaign for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Ghedebrav said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.

    Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?

    There but for the grace of God; the closest I’ve got is posting vaguely banterish between-friends stuff in more professional channels (e.g. on Teams/Whatsapp) but tbh the easiest thing there is just immediately front out with a ‘whoops, that wasn’t for here!’.

    I feel terrible when I see it happen. Well, terrible, seasoned with a couple of turns of the revelling-in-chaotic-malice mill.
    Jumping between the main Teams meeting chat and the side banter with a colleague is a potential source of disaster. So far, so good, but I just know that I'll drop a bollock one day.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoin
    Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.

    It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.
    The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.
    The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.

    Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Farooq said:

    Every good business needs to know what its USP is.

    Having a USP of "a website where men can ogle women" isn't a particularly strong USP.
    Wasn't that how Facebook started?
    I thought that was geeks at Harvard finding a way to talk to women and be “friends” with them without actually having to do the terrifying thing of talking to women.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,547
    John Major's Huntingdon seat is in danger of going to Labour according to the New Statesman's forecast. It was of course the safest seat in the country a number of times when Major was MP.

    Con 30.5%
    Lab 29.3%
    Ref 14.4%
    LD 13.0%
    Grn 8.1%

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.

    You heard it here first.

    You could be right Robert. History would support your kind of assessment.

    However, I don’t think it’s based on reading the room. (At the moment.)
    Suck Suck Suck
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.

    Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.

    So why was he there?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758
    Andy_JS said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Big question in Islington North is could the Greens come through the middle, if the Labour vote is evenly split?
    If Corbyn does get elected it'll be quite amusing to see quite where he sits himself in the HoC.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    AlsoLei said:

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @slowbikeiain

    Today's teens drink less, smoke less, take fewer drugs, commit fewer crimes and get pregnant less than their parents or grandparents. What problem are the Tories trying to solve?


    @BradfemlyWalsh

    The lazy little shits.

    Maybe a stint of national service is calculated to turn the kids to drink and fags which will boost treasury coffers with the VAT and boost the drunken pregnancies boosting the birth rate. Sounds perfectly sensible.
    I seem to recall one or two girls I knew discovering they were pregnant after their boyfriends National Service embarkation leave.
    18 months later, when the lad came home from Singapore………
    Of course, if the chap was being posted to Germany he might get a long weekend to get married.

    Also, if the new National Service is going to apply to girls as well as boys things could get quite complicated.
    I would have thought that it would be impossible to restrict it to men, even if they wanted to!

    They'll have to have a system of exemptions - including for pregnancy, and for people with caring responsibilities.

    But what about illness and disability? Will there be a system of assessments, reviews, and appeals like there is for PIP?
    Also for apprentices and the like, as already remarked on here.

    No conscientious objection, though: just don't tick the squaddy box.

    [Still wondering at the apparent mismatch between a paid year as a plastic officer and 24 weekends doing what will in some cases look remarkably similar to a court sentence of community service. Which compares rather adversely with actual sentences passed on actual MPs for doing actual crimes.)
    Surely the military option wouldn’t be as officers, more like CCF and then used to do guard duties to free up other soldiers with anyone showing promise sent on courses which are worthwhile and might make them consider switching to Sandhurst.

    A bit of basic infantry training and you can replace the RAF regiment on the cheap.
    Well, if Tory ministers go out and talk about a year's commission, who are we to accuse them of lying or not knowing the meaning of the words they use?

    Your attempt at making sense of it - I do sympathise - sounds a bit like the old Junior Leaders' Regiments - but those were for 15 yo or so. At 18 you don't want to faff around but get stuck into the serious business.

    Perhaps the idea is rather more basic: to give the little dears the choice of a year's NS bored out of one's mind as a squaddy with a pick handle outside the depot at Catterick, or trying for orficer selection and a short service commission.

    The "30,000 will be given a commission" nonsense is yet more proof that the policy was dreamed up at the last minute by a bunch of inexperienced Spads who don't actually know what they're talking about. There are only 28,000 commissioned officers in our Armed Forces - why would we want to (more than) double that without a commensurate rise in the number of those in other ranks?

    See also the "a royal commission will look into it" stuff - royal commissions fell out of use because they were wide-ranging and woolly. The last one was appointed in 1999, and there've only been three since 1977 (subjects: 'The Press', 'Care of the Aged', and 'The House of Lords').

    Even if royal commissions were to be brought back into use, the question of how best to implement a policy where the broad outlines have already been announced would still be a job for an Inquiry instead. At best, a royal commission might be tasked with looking into the subjects of 'national service' more broadly, or perhaps 'community cohesion', or 'volunteering opportunities for young adults'.

    If William Hague really has been working on this for months, he should be ashamed of himself for doing such an embarrassingly half-arsed job.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.

    Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?

    When the pay of everyone in the company was sent out as an attachment. Those of us on a POP3/SMTP setup got to see it as the recall did not work. :)

    Also - and not a recall issue - at another place HR sent out a list of project codewords, including the status. Which told a few people their project was to be canned as it was in the 'cancelled' section...
    Back in the early 2000s a friend of mine tried to split up from her boyfriend by email. She believed the recall function did just that and sent a variety of different versions of said missive, thinking she had recalled the earlier drafts. He laughed at her in the restaurant where the breakup was finalised that evening, read each version back to her, before ordering desert. He was a cast iron heartless shit.
    Nothing like an exit interview to help each party do things better in the future.
    I was only recently tipped off by some friends who work in HR that exit interviews aren't really to do with feedback for the company.

    They are about understanding if you might have a case against them, and an opportunity to get your statement on their record which helps them - just in case you do.

    I must admit I thought that unduly cynical. If lots of people are leaving and all saying the same thing any sensible company will want to know why, but I've also been advised to be as positive and constructive as possible- because how you act when leaving is how your brand will be judged.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Put UK election into Google.
    Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Andy_JS said:

    John Major's Huntingdon seat is in danger of going to Labour according to the New Statesman's forecast. It was of course the safest seat in the country a number of times when Major was MP.

    Con 30.5%
    Lab 29.3%
    Ref 14.4%
    LD 13.0%
    Grn 8.1%

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    I doubt Ref will clock that high so should be OK.

    I also think Bob Seely will hold on in the IoW.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Proud Boy, Tommeh, Tate et al (and things like the various GamerGate offspring around which these things coalesced) aren’t enough though.

    They are a shout against progressive values but they won’t get bins emptied, houses built or taxes collected. In in and of themselves they are loud but broadly pretty unpopular.

    If the Tories want to come back, they need to find that ‘natural party of government’ mojo, not hitch their wagon to the Football Lads Brigade.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    The nonsensical national service policy. The Conservative MP endorsing Reform UK. Steve Baker going on holiday. Attempting to describe Starmer as tired and too old.

    Versus a good speech from Starmer and consistent messaging from Labour.

    It feels like the Conservatives are in a death spiral. But what do I know? We’ll have to see how the polling changes this week.
  • @Leon wrote for lads' mags, that makes sense.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    dixiedean said:

    Put UK election into Google.
    Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."

    Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    boulay said:

    Farooq said:

    Every good business needs to know what its USP is.

    Having a USP of "a website where men can ogle women" isn't a particularly strong USP.
    Wasn't that how Facebook started?
    I thought that was geeks at Harvard finding a way to talk to women and be “friends” with them without actually having to do the terrifying thing of talking to women.
    It was to publicly (and without consent obvs) rate the shaggability of fellow students.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Big question in Islington North is could the Greens come through the middle, if the Labour vote is evenly split?
    If Corbyn does get elected it'll be quite amusing to see quite where he sits himself in the HoC.
    Looks like there'll be plenty of space on that side.
  • Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert

    Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voters

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/labour-polling-lead-conservatives-overstated-tory-election-expert
  • I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Off topic, but important election news: "As South Africans head into national elections Wednesday, the country’s politics have been rocked by an epidemic of assassinations, including 40 recorded since the start of last year. While they have largely targeted local officials, politicians and activists, the killings appear set to impact the outcome of the national vote."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/27/south-africa-election-anc-killings/

    According to the article, the assasinations are one of the reasons the ANC is likely to lose.

    I have to admire the candidates who are running, in spite of the risks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    dixiedean said:

    Put UK election into Google.
    Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."

    Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.
    Targeted ads. Similar to the twitter echo chamber.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    So with National Service arming the public schoolboys, young uneducated white men aren’t even going to be able to go all Jim Morrison and brag about “they’ve got the guns but we’ve got the numbers”. A sad day for Doors fans and uneducated white men everywhere.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoin
    Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.

    It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.
    The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.
    The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.

    Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?
    what a claim to fame , "we are not quite as shit as Greece or Zimbabwe"
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    It feels like the Tories have already thrown the towel in.

    25% tops I suspect.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.

    Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.

    If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.

    You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Labour lead over Conservatives may be overstated, says Tory election expert

    Robert Hayward, who identified ‘shy Tories’ in 1992, suggests the party is winning support from undecided voters

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/27/labour-polling-lead-conservatives-overstated-tory-election-expert

    Mandy Rice-Davies applies.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shit
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    Yes on reflection I'm sure you're right. If that group becomes important it is unlikely to be within the democratic system.

    Your group would heavily overlap with my centrist dads group, and you could see Labour reverting to an anti-eu stance once they're out of power (some sort of successor to Corbyn).
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.

    8/1 available on NOM if you fancy it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoin
    Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.

    It's not really about what's in your wallet, is it? It's about having control of your own currency, and not being in the sort of shit Italy and Greece are in.
    The UK are not in teh shit then, where have you been last few years. How is it possible that some people still cannot grasp the clusterfcuk they have burdened the country with. There are none so blind as those that will not see, all those fake sovereignty turds have lost their sheen I am afraid.
    The UK is not remotely in the same shit as the likes of Italy and Greece.

    Which isn't exactly anything to be proud of: The UK: not quite as shit as Greece is hardly Britain rules the waves now, is it?
    If we want to rule the waves, we've got to pay for it.

    We used to have well over 1,000 ships in the Royal Navy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.

    Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.

    If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
    I agree that you need a decent opposition in the Commons. But Ed Davey can provide that. ;)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Disappointed not to see at least a R&W poll so far this evening.

    On the other hand, we need to shake the bank holiday out of our hair and, possibly, also half-term week.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    dixiedean said:

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.
    Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
    Indeed.

    I’m not sure this site is a particularly good litmus for youth understanding.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    dixiedean said:

    Put UK election into Google.
    Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."

    Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.
    Then their ad buying is extremely crafty then.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Have Labour HQ ordered a job lot of parachutes? Lot of safe seat step downs today.
    Still no Tories since Leadsom? I thought they were expecting loads this weekend?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr
    Deltapoll break down their polls by generation. This was today's Q on "would you vote to rejoin the EU"

    Gen Z: 89% Yes / 9% No
    Millennials: 67% Yes / 33% No
    Gen X: 57% Yes / 43% No
    Boomers: 47% Yes / 53% No

    @GavinBarwell

    After the election, the Conservative Party is going to have to face this reality

    I know it will be both painful and difficult - most current Conservative voters don't want to rejoin - but it is very clear how public opinion is going to evolve given this demographic skew

    Ask them about rejoin with the Euro and even with younger voters there is much less enthusiasm for rejoin
    Since contactless became mainstream, the amount of people carrying cash has collapsed. I think the unit of a account is not a serious issue in the post cash world.
    That argument trivialises the economic considerations and could equally be turned around to say that the Euro has lost its raison d'être.
    The optimal currency area for the pound encompasses... er... London.
    So joining the Euro would be perfectly in keeping with the recent Tory London-phobic behaviour.

    (In reality, we only need to apply to join the Euro when rejoining the EU. There's no reason for that application to ever succeed.)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    edited May 27
    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    YouGov polling suggests the Tories are out of sync with the public trying to push their modern Section 28 on schools, with 61% of the public in favour of teaching gender ideology vs 29% against, rising to 66% of parents with at least 1 child under 18 - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49445-should-pupils-be-taught-about-gender-identity-in-schools

    Labour members are also very supportive of trans people being "able to live their lives free from harassment, abuse and intimidation" (93% support) -https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/LabourTogether_LabourMembers_231027_Transgender_Rights_W.pdf

    I imagine there is far less support for trans women competing in women's sports, and rapists being sent to female jails - as well there should be. That's just basic common sense.

    But in general the public seem pretty relaxed about gender identity, and you can probably expect the Labour party to take a moderate stance on it, in line with the general public.

    It's an issue that gets a small minority very hot under the collar, but with the Tories out of power and no longer able to push it as a wedge issue, hopefully trans and gender nonconforming people will be able to get back on with living their lives, without being turned into another outpost of the culture war.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    megasaur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shit
    Surefire vote loser, be madness to be pushing it. They want to just get on with their lives.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797

    "In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."

    So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.

    This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?

    One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.

    Whoever produces the electricity, the energy companies will profit and the poor bloody infantry will pay for it.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    On the Labour response to the National Service , I dont think they should be mocking it as a teenage Dad's army - for two reasons - one it sounds like teenagers are incompetent and secondly , Dad's army and its characters were loved by the GBP (probably for at least trying to do their bit) .
    I dont agree with National Service but dont mock the community sentiment behind it - Cameron with his Big Society idea was mocked but again it felt a bit mean to many people
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    megasaur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shit
    They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.

    But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.

    It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.

    We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    edited May 27
    Nigelb said:

    Post Office scandal: Police to deploy 80 detectives for criminal inquiry
    Exclusive: Investigation will dig into potential perjury offences and perverting the course of justice by senior leaders and Fujitsu

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/27/post-office-scandal-police-to-deploy-80-detectives-for-criminal-inquiry

    It seems we are looking at prosecutions beginning 2026 earliest.

    This is not satisfactory considering some examples of the offences are so blatant it is hard to see how they can be defended on known evidence to date. I'm not just thinking Paula Vennells, but Angela v d Bogen, Gareth Jenkins, Jarnail Singh and numerous investigators and legal advisers have already all but confessed.

    Why not get on with it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.

    Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.

    If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
    I agree that you need a decent opposition in the Commons. But Ed Davey can provide that. ;)
    Except he can't, can he?

    In all respects he's a man of the Left who just fancies the EU more.

    An opposition needs to be meaningful, not tokenistic.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224

    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.

    Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.

    If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
    Exactly. You only need to look at the lack of coherent opposition to Boris Johnson whilst Corbyn was leading the Labour party for a recent example.

    Especially in the next few years when difficult decisions will need to be taken, we need a solid Tory opposition to hold Labour's feet to the fire.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    kyf_100 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    YouGov polling suggests the Tories are out of sync with the public trying to push their modern Section 28 on schools, with 61% of the public in favour of teaching gender ideology vs 29% against, rising to 66% of parents with at least 1 child under 18 - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49445-should-pupils-be-taught-about-gender-identity-in-schools

    Labour members are also very supportive of trans people being "able to live their lives free from harassment, abuse and intimidation" (93% support) -https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/LabourTogether_LabourMembers_231027_Transgender_Rights_W.pdf

    I imagine there is far less support for trans women competing in women's sports, and rapists being sent to female jails - as well there should be. That's just basic common sense.

    But in general the public seem pretty relaxed about gender identity, and you can probably expect the Labour party to take a moderate stance on it, in line with the general public.

    It's an issue that gets a small minority very hot under the collar, but with the Tories out of power and no longer able to push it as a wedge issue, hopefully trans and gender nonconforming people will be able to get back on with living their lives, without being turned into another outpost of the culture war.
    Perfectly put
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Heathener said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.

    You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
    The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    Trouble is, this is exactly what George Osborne thought.

    There's a very small market for what you describe.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968

    Heathener said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.

    You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
    The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.
    There's no such thing as a "tide of history".

    Sometimes things are a good idea, like gay rights.

    Other time things are a bad idea, like Paedophile Information Exchange.

    Treating trans people with respect is a good idea.

    Treating women with disrespect is a bad idea.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited May 27
    Heathener said:

    megasaur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shit
    They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.

    But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.

    It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.

    We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.
    thats just bank holiday weekend vibes!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    Ghedebrav said:

    I remain of the view a hung Parliament is still very likely.

    8/1 available on NOM if you fancy it.
    And drifting.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited May 27

    dixiedean said:

    Put UK election into Google.
    Top result is "Time for Change. Vote Labour on July 4th."

    Funny. I've just done that on my phone and I don't get that.
    I just tried and I get "General Election 2024: How Labour will change Britain" as the second result, the first being the Parliament.uk site.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That’s ok if you have a good local constituency MP. Most of them are grifting arseholes.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224
    dixiedean said:

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.
    Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
    True, but you must also have noticed the echoes of Tate's messaging amongst some in that group recently.

    Admittedly it was a bit of a bubble that has now burst, but we had quite a bit of it in school.

    Notwithstanding that, I agree with @Cleitophon and @Ghedebrav that the numbers are small.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    kyf_100 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.
    Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.
    Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.
    Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?
    Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 737
    Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.

    There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    ... it's probably exactly the sort of thing Starmer has in mind to echo Blair's attack on single parents to prove to the Daily Mail that he's tough on welfare scroungers.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    OllyT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.

    You heard it here first.

    How do you come to this conclusion?
    Simples:

    (a) Sea changes don't happen very often. A reversion to the mean is much more likely than a new paradigm. Not impossible, of course, but (like recessions) they are predicted far more often than they actually happen.

    (b) The LibDems often flatter to deceive, and it's hard to get 30+ seats on a low teens vote share. Not impossible (see the LD performance in Scotland for a clear demonstration of extremely efficient vote), but unlikely.

    (c) Campaign gaffs and the like don't usually make that much difference. See Pussygate, etc.

    (d) The Reform vote (see council elections / byelections / etc) doesn't actually seem to actually, you know, vote. And I think that in close races, there is plenty of opportunity for them to be squeezed. Which Reform voter wants to let in a LibDem?

    (e) The Labour vote is usually overstated somewhat by the polls. (See London)
    I would tend to go along with most of that except I am betting on the Tories not reaching 30% this time.

    In all my years of GEs I have never known such antipathy to the Tories. I know plenty of people who generally vote Tory and I cannot think of one that intends to do so this time. Not all going Labour by any means, some Lib Dem, Reform, Not Voting etc but all are resolutely certain they will not be voting Conservative.

    No great enthusiasm for Starmer as there was for Blair but the hatred of Sunak/Truss/Johnson is way greater than it was for Major. Low turnout, Tories on 26-28%. Johnson would have got them to about 32-35% IMO.
    I don't think Reform will do well, but I don't see their voters returning to the Tories either - most will simply sit the election out.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.

    There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.

    And a change of the change of personnel. Look at the hopefuls and shudder
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,573

    kyf_100 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.
    Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.
    Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.
    Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?
    Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.
    One more: the former editor of the UK lad mag Stuff is now one of Fox News' top pundits:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Gutfeld
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    boulay said:

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    So with National Service arming the public schoolboys, young uneducated white men aren’t even going to be able to go all Jim Morrison and brag about “they’ve got the guns but we’ve got the numbers”. A sad day for Doors fans and uneducated white men everywhere.
    As foretold by Lindsay Anderson, somewhat ambiguously.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ1LG08ssaM
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Heathener said:

    megasaur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    Forcefully stated, but I think Streeting's remarks yesterday signalled a real determination not to get bogged down in that, as you put it, shit
    They’re treading very carefully this side of the election.

    But it’s also important to note that it won’t be a Government’s priority because other things matter sooooooooooooooooo much more to people.

    It will just be by quiet osmosis that people who wish to identify that way will not be bashed for doing so by a party hell-bent on Nastiness at every turn.

    We’ll move on. A kinder, more gentle, caring, society. I notice it already in fact in the number of people smiling and saying hello to others. Cars stopping to allow people to cross the road. It’s as if a giant burden has already been lifted from the nation’s shoulders and we can breathe and smile again.
    Lol!! :D
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Ghedebrav said:

    A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.

    Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.

    What’s your constituency?
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Heathener said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Any idiot trying to push Trans shit again will be out on their arse and deservedly so.
    In the next few years those of us still alive will look back on the reactionary right’s shibboleths and wonder how we ended up there.

    You’ll not stop the tide of history. Same happened with gay rights. You’re on the lost side. Just a question of time.
    The last year or so has shown that tide crashing into a number of immovable objects, and then moving out again.
    There's no such thing as a "tide of history".

    Sometimes things are a good idea, like gay rights.

    Other time things are a bad idea, like Paedophile Information Exchange.

    Treating trans people with respect is a good idea.

    Treating women with disrespect is a bad idea.
    Indeed. There is no such thing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    edited May 27

    Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797

    "In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."

    So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.

    This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?

    One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.

    The high feed-in tariffs will be from the old scheme that existed when solar panels were a lot more expensive, and the tariffs were reduced as the panels became cheaper, and I believe don't exist for new installations.

    So the scheme provides direct evidence of the technology becoming cheaper over time, and the subsidies being removed as a result.

    What's your problem exactly?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited May 27

    maxh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My hunch is the Tories will win a minimum of 30% and 200 seats. The only problem is there's no sign of them moving towards 30% in the opinion polls at the moment.

    I don't see that happening.... I see the tory campaign collapsing completely. It will limp to July 4th at best. Sunak thought a 6 week campaign would reveal labour. It is going to expose the void at the heart of the party. Yet another rookie mistake. It doesn't take an Andy Marr to see they are flailing and totally disorganized without the stamina for a long fight.
    I disagree. I think however bad this Tory campaign is, plenty of sensible people will be convinced by the line that Labour's victory is assured, but it's your duty to vote for good local constituency MPs to give the Tories a base to rebuild from. Hell I am convinced by that line and have never voted Tory.

    That's what my parents are doing - I think the cultural jump towards voting Labour or abstaining is just too great for at least 20-25% of the country.
    That's my argument too. In fact, there's a national interest argument.

    Having zero Tory MPs in the Commons is a bad idea. And I'd have said the same if it looked like the Conservatives would get 500 MPs and wipe out Labour too.

    If nothing else it leads to bad governance, internal factionalism, corruption and abuse, and can actually accelerate a party's decline rather than prolong its period in office and its legacy.
    yes I do fear this ,not least because if you take me as an always Tory voter in general elections (sometimes digress in other ones) it will be the first time I am not going to this time - I even voted for the tories in 1997 and 2001 . I am voting Reform this time and there must be many others like me . In the past loyal tory voters like me have guaranteed 30% and hence 200 seats ish . Not anymore
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    carnforth said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    I did wonder with the new generation of men, whether lads' mags would re-appear.
    This is the last gasp of the reactionary right.

    Before the rest of the country moves on. Deporting boat people to Rwanda will be one of those things we look back on and wonder what they were taking. Trans rights will most certainly come back onto the agenda and with a huge majority there won’t be a lot to stop it, but it will be in the context of people generally chilling out and ceasing to judge those who want to identify how the fuck they want. And as for beating up the disabled … well ...
    Do you think the journalists and associated staff on Loaded are/were travellers with the Reactionary Right? If so it would appear you never picked up a copy.
    Tbh I wouldn’t be suprised if (like Gavin Macinnes in the 2000s with Vice, only less so) some of the writers from that era did drift to the edgelord populist right.
    Martin Daubney went from Loaded/FHM to being a Brexit MEP then jumped to Reclaim.
    Wasn't a certain Spectator writer formerly of this parish also a writer for lads mags in the 90s?
    Not much distance to travel to the edgelord populist right for him.
    One more: the former editor of the UK lad mag Stuff is now one of Fox News' top pundits:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Gutfeld
    It's where the money is, not necessarily the punters' money but various moneybags with a line to push (cf GB News).
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.

    Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?

    When the pay of everyone in the company was sent out as an attachment. Those of us on a POP3/SMTP setup got to see it as the recall did not work. :)

    Also - and not a recall issue - at another place HR sent out a list of project codewords, including the status. Which told a few people their project was to be canned as it was in the 'cancelled' section...
    Back in the early 2000s a friend of mine tried to split up from her boyfriend by email. She believed the recall function did just that and sent a variety of different versions of said missive, thinking she had recalled the earlier drafts. He laughed at her in the restaurant where the breakup was finalised that evening, read each version back to her, before ordering desert. He was a cast iron heartless shit.
    Nothing like an exit interview to help each party do things better in the future.
    I was only recently tipped off by some friends who work in HR that exit interviews aren't really to do with feedback for the company.

    They are about understanding if you might have a case against them, and an opportunity to get your statement on their record which helps them - just in case you do.

    I must admit I thought that unduly cynical. If lots of people are leaving and all saying the same thing any sensible company will want to know why, but I've also been advised to be as positive and constructive as possible- because how you act when leaving is how your brand will be judged.
    The advice on exit interviews that seemed sensible to me was that if they weren't willing to listen to your criticisms and suggestions when you were on the inside trying to help improve matters, they're not likely to be particularly receptive when you're on the way out of the door, so don't try to use them to tell the company anything. (But then I've only left one company, and they were well aware that the primary cause of their retention issues was having difficulties with being able to pay people, so it didn't seem necessary to emphasize that point...)
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    megasaur said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Conservative Party will outperform expectations on 4 July, and will get more than 200 seats. The LibDems will more than double their seat count, and will do rather better in terms of vote share than the current polls predict, but will miss out on a dozen seats by small margins. The SNP will hold on to their number two spot, getting around 30 seats. And Labour will manage an inverse of 2019, achieving a majority of around 80.

    You heard it here first.

    You could be right Robert. History would support your kind of assessment.

    However, I don’t think it’s based on reading the room. (At the moment.)
    Sunak will implode and the party with him. I'm predicting Where He Will Live If He Loses will become a big issue - ironically, because who gives a toss? But it is an easy attack line especially after Akshata's non dom wriggles. And the I want to stay here to support my team line is phony even for him.
    There've been rumbles about this already, ever since he published his suspiciously-lacking-in-detail UK tax return.

    It now seems almost certain that he's been paying tax in the US too - but why? If he's truly a UK domiciled UK citizen, why wouldn't he just fill in a W8-BEN like everyone else who owns shares or property or other sources of income in the US?

    The only possible reason is that he actually does have US citizenship, or that he hasn't given up his green card after all.

    Labour have been plugging away at this, asking a question about it every couple of weeks at PMQs and the like. I wonder if it might prove to be a bit of a bombshell later in the election campaign.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968

    Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797

    "In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."

    So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.

    This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?

    One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.

    The high feed-in tariffs will be from the old scheme that existed when solar panels were a lot more expensive, and the tariffs were reduced as the panels became cheaper, and I believe don't exist for new installations.

    So the scene provides direct evidence of the technology becoming cheaper over time, and the subsidies being removed as a result.

    What's your problem exactly?
    That we're using cheap, domestically produced, British energy.

    He'd be much happier if we were paying more money to Putin for gas.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    Do you remember when the Cons were going to fight the GE on the economy? Seems so long ago now but it was just last week! Wonder what they'll replace the National Service canard with at the end of the week.

    There are going to have to be a lot of reforms and a total change of personnel before the Cons can hope to be an effective opposition.

    What the Conservatives will actually have is a very elderly, extremely right wing membership and the shattered remnants of the Parliamentary party, both very sore and hurt at being rejected and utterly convinced that the failure was down to insufficient indulgence of their own prejudices. The Conservative Party may need to go through a repetition of its lengthy post-1997 detoxification process - attempting to foist a succession of unpalatable hardline figures on an unwilling public - before getting tired and bored of losing, swallowing their distaste and electing a Cameron-type leader.

    Caveat: if Labour fails to deliver and the fed-up electorate directs its rage towards them, the Tories could be back a lot more quickly. The electoral system leaves us with only two genuine choices of governing party, so rejecting one necessarily means choosing the other.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,698
    Interesting info on Lab safe seats last minute NEC scramble:

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    1h
    🔴 And our old friend, arch-fixer Luke Akehurst, the right-wing NEC member who has chaired many candidate panels, is also due to get a good seat. When I've asked him about this publicly he's not denied it, but helpfully reminded me how he stood for Parliament back in 2005.

    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1795130129133248779
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,272

    GIN1138 said:

    No Redfield and Wilton poll today?

    Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!
    Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Ghedebrav said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ex colleague of mine told me as a junior consultant he once sent sensitive details of a merger to entire office by accident - everyone had to sign some legal docs in a rush because of him.

    Anyone else got horror stories they care to share?

    There but for the grace of God; the closest I’ve got is posting vaguely banterish between-friends stuff in more professional channels (e.g. on Teams/Whatsapp) but tbh the easiest thing there is just immediately front out with a ‘whoops, that wasn’t for here!’.

    I feel terrible when I see it happen. Well, terrible, seasoned with a couple of turns of the revelling-in-chaotic-malice mill.
    Jumping between the main Teams meeting chat and the side banter with a colleague is a potential source of disaster. So far, so good, but I just know that I'll drop a bollock one day.
    I managed that on a hotspot connection on the M6 once, so you've no excuse if you need it up sitting at a desk.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    No Redfield and Wilton poll today?

    Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!
    Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?
    They might have scheduled it for tomorrow due to the Bank Holiday?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656

    Ghedebrav said:

    A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.

    Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.

    What’s your constituency?
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    ANAME Pioneer
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Ghedebrav said:

    A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.

    Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.

    What’s your constituency?
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    Do you think you will Buckie the trend, or are you Cullen the result now? Are your cairns bulging and will you be celebrating with a hearty rose? Are you Pennan your victory speech?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,272

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    No Redfield and Wilton poll today?

    Nope, they ain't giving no damn clues!
    Seems odd that R&W have been releasing polls every Monday for years and now we've reached the general election they stop?
    They might have scheduled it for tomorrow due to the Bank Holiday?
    Well they never bothered about bank holidays before, lol. But maybe. Guess we'll find out tomorrow?
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Interesting Twitter thread that my attention has been drawn to:

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1789201786340884797

    "In the UK, renewables are subsidised by three different schemes. Feed-in-Tariffs fund mostly solar power. The latest report for 2022-23 shows the average total payment was >£190/MWh, about 3X the current cost of gas-fired power."

    So though we're continually being told that renewables, especially wind, have become cheaper than gas, we're actually paying 3 times the amount for renewable energy than we are for gas, and that includes carbon payments.

    This will go up even more when the higher guaranteed price that the Government had to dangle in-front of wind providers to get them to actually bid in the most recent round of auctions feeds into the system. If wind is so cheap, why did we need to increase the price paid by 70%?

    One for @BartholomewRoberts to ponder.

    You seem to shimmy from solar in one paragraph to wind in the next as if they were the same thing. Looking at the yield on my Greencoat shares, I think any overpayment on the latter is ending up in the right hands.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Taz said:
    yes I am looking at drawing the tax free element of mine before any labour budget for this reason
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Taz said:
    Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.

    I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129
    Taz said:
    Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Have all the pollsters been called up for National Service?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I found myself rewatching Series 1 of House of Cards again last night - US not UK, the latter being before my time.

    If you can get past the question marks surrounding Kevin Spacey then I’d forgotten just what a fantastic piece of political drama it is, especially in the early stages.

    All the Machiavellian chthonic depths of political life right there.

    Perfect viewing for an election campaign ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Taz said:
    yes I am looking at drawing the tax free element of mine before any labour budget for this reason
    Same here. I had wanted to leave it. But I think I will have to pull that forward.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    pm215 said:

    Taz said:
    Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?
    I don't think Telegraph readers need much of a nudge not to vote Labour.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Taz said:
    Yep. Then retirement age 70. And it will destroy them.
    It's Reeves' wet dream stuff
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    pm215 said:

    Taz said:
    Could the Telegraph be trying to nudge older voters away from voting Labour?
    I don't think Telegraph readers need much of a nudge not to vote Labour.
    The readership is more Labour than Tory:

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/daily-mail-is-now-the-only-newspaper-with-a-tory-readership/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,698

    Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    🔴 One has to ask how Labour will handle peerages and government appointments if this is how the party's National Executive operates before they've even won power.

    https://x.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1795146032856121582
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Taz said:
    Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.

    I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.
    I expect a removal of the higher rate tax relief for top earners in a pension pot as a minimum as well as further taxes on capital gains and interest.

    Remove the 5% cap on council tax increases I also expect.

    The Tories have been the party of high tax. Labour are about to rinse middle earners.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    maxh said:

    dixiedean said:

    maxh said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Islington North Update

    In search of signs of election activity, I've wandered around pretty much every shopping area and main street in the both the eastern (yesterday) and western (this afternoon) legs of the Islington North constituency and can report... nothing.

    No leaflets, no posters, no presence on the streets, no sign of any canvassing activity.

    I realise that the campaign hasn't officially started yet, but I would have thought that Corbyn would have wanted to take advantage of the bank holiday - getting a load of volunteers in to make their presence felt, offering social proof that "everyone's going to vote Corbyn", and cementing expectations of a win right from the start.

    My expectation for this seat was that Corbyn would run a noisy by-election style campaign, and that the big question was whether Labour would be able to do anything to match it. But what if that doesn't happen, and things remain muted on both sides? Well, in that case, I think it would likely result in a narrow Labour win.

    I don't suppose it'll turn out like that, though - Corbyn has always been an effective campaigner, so I still expect things to get off the ground sooner rather than later....

    Corbyn is now 75 years old.
    Maybe he’s just had enough and like Sunak is just going through the motions.
    Same could be said of the average tory and reform member.. they are old.... the whole right has no demographic future.... also it is spent as a political movement. All its energies gone. The age of the millenial is upon us. They will dominate for the next 30 years.
    Which suggests the next iteration of the Tory party might build from some of the 'new right': younger, harder edged, less globalist, very anti-woke. Proud Boys/Yaxley-Lennon might provide a model.

    Alternatively they return to centrist Dad territory to tempt back those who are currently Labour. I've been surprised by the number of people I generally see eye-to-eye with on here (eg @numbertwelve, @Stuartinromford and others) describe themselves as centre right and/or more naturally Tory than Labour.
    Young uneducated white men don't have the numbers... not by a long shot. I was going for a completely different kind of centre right: progressive and pro-eu. That is where the sustainable numbers are.
    I spend most of my working life with lots of young, uneducated white men.
    Màny of them are so woke they'd cause apoplexy on this site.
    True, but you must also have noticed the echoes of Tate's messaging amongst some in that group recently.

    Admittedly it was a bit of a bubble that has now burst, but we had quite a bit of it in school.

    Notwithstanding that, I agree with @Cleitophon and @Ghedebrav that the numbers are small.
    I did.
    But the majority thought Tate to be a massive asshat.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Taz said:
    Very likely. Pensions, VAT and ISAs haven't been "pledged" and are natural targets for additional taxation, and a significant tightening of allowances and tax relief.

    I note they haven't pledged to freeze Council Tax either.
    Council Tax needs to be significantly increased. It would still be cheaper than constant car suspension repairs due to potholes, the effects on children of underfunded schools, or shortage of care home places.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,897
    edited May 27
    Does anyone doubt that Netanyahu and his thugs are irredeemable monsters who don't care a fig for any life that doesn't belong to an Israeli?

    Channel 4 News is unwatchable

    https://x.com/johncusack/status/1794923952638247316
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    A fun* day our shooting video for social media. Now a pile of editing to do.

    Met my Labour opponent! Nice guy, not from the constituency, doesn't sound like he is running a campaign.

    What’s your constituency?
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
    Ok thanks - good luck!

    Can’t be many longer constituency names than that.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Heathener said:

    I found myself rewatching Series 1 of House of Cards again last night - US not UK, the latter being before my time.

    If you can get past the question marks surrounding Kevin Spacey then I’d forgotten just what a fantastic piece of political drama it is, especially in the early stages.

    All the Machiavellian chthonic depths of political life right there.

    Perfect viewing for an election campaign ;)

    It is but its a complete copy of the UK version which was sublime
This discussion has been closed.