Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
It's economic as well I think. More children will bring more money into the family and will support you if live to old age. The children need to be fed but a similarly large number of older siblings, aunts and uncles will help here.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
I would have thought access to and education about contraception came into the picture
To a degree, yes. But even in places with free access to contraception, TFR rates are higher if very low GDP, such as Gaza.
Poor people have children in pretty desperate circumstances because children and family are pleasures that they can access. This is particularly so for women, who make up a very large share of the world's poorest.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
So we have two almost opposite reasons being conjectured there.
It may also be that people between say 18 and 35 have grown less interested in having sex.
The fall is huge! To judge from that graph, the birth rate has dropped by about half in seven years.
The birth rate drop is exaggerated because there are fewer people of childbearing age, caused by the initial introduction of the one child policy. Effectively, there are fewer 20-35 years olds, and they're having somewhat fewer kids, but because it's multiplactive, the effect is sizeable on the overall birthrate.
By far the biggest challenge to humanity is unbalanced population pyramids.
It's the Total Fertility Rate that people should measure it with, not overall birth rate.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
It's economic as well I think. More children will bring more money into the family and will support you if live to old age. The children need to be fed but a similarly large number of older siblings, aunts and uncles will help here.
Not nessicarily. Unemployment rates in places like Gaza or African Townships are very high indeed, and subsistence farmers are more often limited by access to land, water and fertilisers than labour. An awful lot of time in Malawi is spent sitting in the shade watching a small patch of maize grow.
Kinship ties matter too as do religious organisations. These act as an informal welfare state in poor counties, with a web of connections and obligations.
Ultimately though we are animals and the closer we live to our basic needs the more the drive and enjoyment of children is to our existence. It is a primeval motivation to continue one's genes, not primarily a financial one.
Sure, money helps with parenting as it does with almost everything else in life, but ultimately the answer to the worldwide crash in TFR comes from revisiting our values.
Green Party policy in the UK - as this article touches on - is fundamentally anti-progress. The utopia it desires is one of fewer people, living simple lives, in harmony with nature.
The fact that nature - as any fleeing wildebeest knows - is not harmonious, doesn't seem to bother them at all.
Technology developing at the most extraordinary rate: as solar panel prices continue to plummet, the future increasingly looks like one where almost every surface will be coated by a light absorbing, electricity emitting sheer.
This means that mankind will not be tethered to fossil fuels (and those who monopolize their production). It means human emissions will collapse.
And it means we'll be able to grow more food than ever before. (Vertical city farms powered by efficient light emitting diodes that only produce light in exactly the wavelengths needed for photosynthesis.) It means that water shortages become mere engineering challenges. Next up will be meat: but we're getting there. We'll be able to grow real meat. It will be indistinguishable from, or perhaps even better than, what comes from farms.
Now, you will accuse me of techno-utopia.
But this is simply the progression of knowledge. We now know how to make photovoltaic cells for 100th of the price we did twenty years ago. Similar progress has been made in batteries and LEDs.
And the progression of knowledge is such that low carbon, is lowest cost.
We will evolve. And we'll evolve around the economic line of least resistance. As Mrs Thatcher said, you can't buck the market. And green and green align here.
The enemies of this are two fold: Firstly there are those who traditional livelihoods are challenged (coal miners, cattle ranchers, old car companies). And you see the passing of laws to try and turn the clock back. (See numerous US states with their absurd bans on lab grown meat.) Secondly, there are those who don't really want progress, they want the world to return to a simpler time. (To whit, the Green Party.)
Us techno-utopians don't need a platform. We don't need to stand for election. We don't need to persuade anyone. Because what we propose is happening inexorably, as knowledge advances, and millions - and billions - of people vote with their wallets, choosing every more efficient vehicles, adding solar to their rooves, and buying whatever food tastes best and costs least.
This green technology isn't just a 1:1 replacement with existing technology though.
For example, in Australia there were about 100,000 electric car sales last year. But there were also 200,000 electric bike sales. Various analyses suggest that the switch to much lighter vehicles is the primary reason why transport emissions have fallen - Australian electricity is still very carbon intensive.
Then you have all the other benefits of smaller, lighter, quiter vehicles in Australia's cities, all enabled by battery technology which is in turn stimulated by public policy around the world.
So expect all sorts of weird and interesting changes to way we live our lives, not just a continuation of the old.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
It's economic as well I think. More children will bring more money into the family and will support you if live to old age. The children need to be fed but a similarly large number of older siblings, aunts and uncles will help here.
Not nessicarily. Unemployment rates in places like Gaza or African Townships are very high indeed, and subsistence farmers are more often limited by access to land, water and fertilisers than labour. An awful lot of time in Malawi is spent sitting in the shade watching a small patch of maize grow.
Kinship ties matter too as do religious organisations. These act as an informal welfare state in poor counties, with a web of connections and obligations.
Ultimately though we are animals and the closer we live to our basic needs the more the drive and enjoyment of children is to our existence. It is a primeval motivation to continue one's genes, not primarily a financial one.
Sure, money helps with parenting as it does with almost everything else in life, but ultimately the answer to the worldwide crash in TFR comes from revisiting our values.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
And they have it right. The pleasures of family are longer lasting and more fulfilling than consumerism and restaurants.
"Civil servants oppose crime tables for migrants Ministers would present annual report of nationality, visa and asylum status of every offender convicted"
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
This states the unstateable problem succinctly. If the science is right, then what is needed for catastrophe is already in place. Even cutting emissions by 50% by 2030 (or whenever) makes no difference except for delaying the outcome by a few years. Emissions are like inflation. Reducing inflation still means rising prices. Reducing emissions still means rising CO2. Only a scheme of mass scale global level removal of CO2 would change things. Whether this is possible I don't know. But nothing else will do it at all, if the science is right. People are working on it, eg:
Interesting. That looks like the efficiency is 50-70% (if you're lucky) of a FOAK plant that will do a maximum of 35,000 tonnes removal pa that's actually removed and stored.
We emit 35 billion tonnes a year so we'd need between 1.4 to 2 million of these plants, worldwide, to break even. And then you need the geology to be right.
[Of course, that's very conservative. I'm assuming emissions don't go down and there's no other effect of net zero policies but this is one thing Western countries can do to mitigate what other countries don't or won't.]
It's probably realistic to get plant numbers up to the tens of thousands. Maybe even a hundred thousand. But that will take time and there are only c. 60,000 power plants of all types worldwide today so this will only ever be about 5% of the solution unless there's a massive ramp up in capacity and efficiency with sufficient geologically locked storage options, and it can be deployed very quickly at scale.
I've got a few Direct Air Capture plants in my garden. More commonly referred to as trees.
Reforestation, peat bog restoration, etc. all act to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in a much more amenable fashion than the various versions of DAC under development.
Adding carbon capture to energy from waste plants is also a good net negative approach, since around half of the CO2 they emit is biogenic. Of course, you need to apply it to half of the EfW fleet before you break even.
"This year’s out-of-control blazes released 2bn tonnes of CO2 – probably triple the country’s annual carbon footprint."
Until you develop a fireproof tree, you have a problem.
Wildfires resulting from climate change.
A spiral of doom.
Are you seriously suggesting that in the past forests didn't also burn?
All the carbon in those trees was going to be released one way or another: either they would fall and rot or they would burn. And then they will be replaced by new trees which will capture carbon again.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
One can't help speculating that it might be Carolines Nokes. She always seems like one of the most left-wing Tory MPs. And she was a minister in 2018/19.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
This states the unstateable problem succinctly. If the science is right, then what is needed for catastrophe is already in place. Even cutting emissions by 50% by 2030 (or whenever) makes no difference except for delaying the outcome by a few years. Emissions are like inflation. Reducing inflation still means rising prices. Reducing emissions still means rising CO2. Only a scheme of mass scale global level removal of CO2 would change things. Whether this is possible I don't know. But nothing else will do it at all, if the science is right. People are working on it, eg:
Interesting. That looks like the efficiency is 50-70% (if you're lucky) of a FOAK plant that will do a maximum of 35,000 tonnes removal pa that's actually removed and stored.
We emit 35 billion tonnes a year so we'd need between 1.4 to 2 million of these plants, worldwide, to break even. And then you need the geology to be right.
[Of course, that's very conservative. I'm assuming emissions don't go down and there's no other effect of net zero policies but this is one thing Western countries can do to mitigate what other countries don't or won't.]
It's probably realistic to get plant numbers up to the tens of thousands. Maybe even a hundred thousand. But that will take time and there are only c. 60,000 power plants of all types worldwide today so this will only ever be about 5% of the solution unless there's a massive ramp up in capacity and efficiency with sufficient geologically locked storage options, and it can be deployed very quickly at scale.
I've got a few Direct Air Capture plants in my garden. More commonly referred to as trees.
Reforestation, peat bog restoration, etc. all act to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in a much more amenable fashion than the various versions of DAC under development.
Adding carbon capture to energy from waste plants is also a good net negative approach, since around half of the CO2 they emit is biogenic. Of course, you need to apply it to half of the EfW fleet before you break even.
"This year’s out-of-control blazes released 2bn tonnes of CO2 – probably triple the country’s annual carbon footprint."
Until you develop a fireproof tree, you have a problem.
Wildfires resulting from climate change.
A spiral of doom.
Are you seriously suggesting that in the past forests didn't also burn?
All the carbon in those trees was going to be released one way or another: either they would fall and rot or they would burn. And then they will be replaced by new trees which will capture carbon again.
Some trees have fruits that require the burning to germinate...we can only assume they evolved to need it because it was common
On the higher fertility rates in rural areas: "Given n men and n women, where each person has ranked all members of the opposite sex in order of preference, marry the men and women together such that there are no two people of opposite sex who would both rather have each other than their current partners. When there are no such pairs of people, the set of marriages is deemed stable." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_marriage_problem
It's been many years since I thought about such formal problems, but I think it obvious that, in practice, it is easier to solve in small communities than in large cities. (How much easier is left as an exercise for those who solve such problems regularly.)
(My own experience growing up on a farm gives an example: I had two older sisters, and I think now that they could have ranked all my possible marriage partners in the small town where we lived. And may well have done so, without, of course, telling me.)
On biodiversity; If we want more species, we can now revive some lost species, and create some new species. (We will probably want to do the second, if we ever get around to terraforming Mars.)
Green Party policy in the UK - as this article touches on - is fundamentally anti-progress. The utopia it desires is one of fewer people, living simple lives, in harmony with nature.
The fact that nature - as any fleeing wildebeest knows - is not harmonious, doesn't seem to bother them at all.
Technology developing at the most extraordinary rate: as solar panel prices continue to plummet, the future increasingly looks like one where almost every surface will be coated by a light absorbing, electricity emitting sheer.
This means that mankind will not be tethered to fossil fuels (and those who monopolize their production). It means human emissions will collapse.
And it means we'll be able to grow more food than ever before. (Vertical city farms powered by efficient light emitting diodes that only produce light in exactly the wavelengths needed for photosynthesis.) It means that water shortages become mere engineering challenges. Next up will be meat: but we're getting there. We'll be able to grow real meat. It will be indistinguishable from, or perhaps even better than, what comes from farms.
Now, you will accuse me of techno-utopia.
But this is simply the progression of knowledge. We now know how to make photovoltaic cells for 100th of the price we did twenty years ago. Similar progress has been made in batteries and LEDs.
And the progression of knowledge is such that low carbon, is lowest cost.
We will evolve. And we'll evolve around the economic line of least resistance. As Mrs Thatcher said, you can't buck the market. And green and green align here.
The enemies of this are two fold: Firstly there are those who traditional livelihoods are challenged (coal miners, cattle ranchers, old car companies). And you see the passing of laws to try and turn the clock back. (See numerous US states with their absurd bans on lab grown meat.) Secondly, there are those who don't really want progress, they want the world to return to a simpler time. (To whit, the Green Party.)
Us techno-utopians don't need a platform. We don't need to stand for election. We don't need to persuade anyone. Because what we propose is happening inexorably, as knowledge advances, and millions - and billions - of people vote with their wallets, choosing every more efficient vehicles, adding solar to their rooves, and buying whatever food tastes best and costs least.
This green technology isn't just a 1:1 replacement with existing technology though.
For example, in Australia there were about 100,000 electric car sales last year. But there were also 200,000 electric bike sales. Various analyses suggest that the switch to much lighter vehicles is the primary reason why transport emissions have fallen - Australian electricity is still very carbon intensive.
Then you have all the other benefits of smaller, lighter, quiter vehicles in Australia's cities, all enabled by battery technology which is in turn stimulated by public policy around the world.
So expect all sorts of weird and interesting changes to way we live our lives, not just a continuation of the old.
I have an electric Brompton in London. I absolutely love it. I go everywhere on it. And it's one of the reasons why I probably wouldn't bother owning a car if I return.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
So we have two almost opposite reasons being conjectured there.
It may also be that people between say 18 and 35 have grown less interested in having sex.
The fall is huge! To judge from that graph, the birth rate has dropped by about half in seven years.
The birth rate drop is exaggerated because there are fewer people of childbearing age, caused by the initial introduction of the one child policy. Effectively, there are fewer 20-35 years olds, and they're having somewhat fewer kids, but because it's multiplactive, the effect is sizeable on the overall birthrate.
By far the biggest challenge to humanity is unbalanced population pyramids.
It's the Total Fertility Rate that people should measure it with, not overall birth rate.
That's true, with a big BUT.
And that "but" is that in many places the cohort of women of child bearing age is small. And the next cohort is going to be even smaller.
That means that even returning TFRs to 2 doesn't solve the population pyramid in the medium term, because there are so many oldies.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
Economics on farms and children: When Abraham Lincoln was growing up, he probably became a net contributor to his family by the time he was 15 or so. His older sister, Sarah, might well have done so, even earlier.
According to the Sandburg biography, at that time Lincoln was required by law to give what he earned to his father, until he turned 21. So, for example, when he was a crewman on a flatboat with provisions going down to New Orleans, his father was entitled to his wages. And his father sometimes rented Abraham out to neighboring farmers.
(Me? I doubt that I was ever a net contributor to my farm family, when I was growing up, but I could have been had I been more interested in farm work, and less interested in books.)
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
This states the unstateable problem succinctly. If the science is right, then what is needed for catastrophe is already in place. Even cutting emissions by 50% by 2030 (or whenever) makes no difference except for delaying the outcome by a few years. Emissions are like inflation. Reducing inflation still means rising prices. Reducing emissions still means rising CO2. Only a scheme of mass scale global level removal of CO2 would change things. Whether this is possible I don't know. But nothing else will do it at all, if the science is right. People are working on it, eg:
Interesting. That looks like the efficiency is 50-70% (if you're lucky) of a FOAK plant that will do a maximum of 35,000 tonnes removal pa that's actually removed and stored.
We emit 35 billion tonnes a year so we'd need between 1.4 to 2 million of these plants, worldwide, to break even. And then you need the geology to be right.
[Of course, that's very conservative. I'm assuming emissions don't go down and there's no other effect of net zero policies but this is one thing Western countries can do to mitigate what other countries don't or won't.]
It's probably realistic to get plant numbers up to the tens of thousands. Maybe even a hundred thousand. But that will take time and there are only c. 60,000 power plants of all types worldwide today so this will only ever be about 5% of the solution unless there's a massive ramp up in capacity and efficiency with sufficient geologically locked storage options, and it can be deployed very quickly at scale.
I've got a few Direct Air Capture plants in my garden. More commonly referred to as trees.
Reforestation, peat bog restoration, etc. all act to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in a much more amenable fashion than the various versions of DAC under development.
Adding carbon capture to energy from waste plants is also a good net negative approach, since around half of the CO2 they emit is biogenic. Of course, you need to apply it to half of the EfW fleet before you break even.
"This year’s out-of-control blazes released 2bn tonnes of CO2 – probably triple the country’s annual carbon footprint."
Until you develop a fireproof tree, you have a problem.
Wildfires resulting from climate change.
A spiral of doom.
Are you seriously suggesting that in the past forests didn't also burn?
All the carbon in those trees was going to be released one way or another: either they would fall and rot or they would burn. And then they will be replaced by new trees which will capture carbon again.
Some trees have fruits that require the burning to germinate...we can only assume they evolved to need it because it was common
Megafires are common in the archaeological/geological record in many places around the world. They only became a real 'problem' when people turned up and got in the way of them.
Many of you made similar points which I'll deal with below. Of those that made individual points:
* @rottenborough: (the power of nightmares as well as dreams): good point, I'll introduce it. * @Sean_F (the dispossessed by UKLeGuin): That's a good reference. I don't know if I can include it, but glad to be informed * @Nigelb (Solarpunk utopia sounds a load of bollocks): See below * @Dura_Ace (Didn't make it to the end, but I'm sure it's terrific): Thank you: I'll put it on the poster...
This was a difficult article to write: the mission was to find out about the idea and present it to you, which is different from a critical analysis. The article describes solarpunk, characterises its final form as a utopia requiring progressive politics, criticises utopias but notes their popularity in a political space with no utopian competitors. More than that would have required me to inject my own views, which was not in the brief: I'm an analyst not a journalist, and I didn't want to write one of those articles that winks at the audience and says "this is all bollocks really". In short, I didn't want to chew your food for you.
Incidentally I recommend "Black Mass": John Gray is a terrible writer in this book but if you can plough through the clotted text he excoriates utopias and gives many examples
What I wasn't expecting was so much detailed info about green tech. That would belong in the "Solarpunk Cities" section, which is Green's short-term aim but deprecated by the Solarpunkists who think it unambitious.
So what to do? Every article has an "extended cut" follow-up, which incorporates the ideas in the comments. In this case, it will require two more paragraphs: one expanding on the green tech ideas presented in the comments, another on how the usefulness of the Greens may be not in themselves but as ideas generators for other parties. It may be an idea to spin off your green tech comments into a prequel article: "Solarpunk: the prequel"
Due to time constraints I don't know when that will be: probably after September tbh. Apols
The next article in the Ideas series will be on the Blob, and will be a synthesis of monitory democracy by John Keane and two video lectures, one by David Starkey and another by JRMogg. Yes really. But first I have to get two (possibly three) in the Measurement series out: one about political parties, another about growth (not degrowth, which is different). The Parties one has to be out by before EP2024 so I'm under the cosh again. Same as it ever was...
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
This states the unstateable problem succinctly. If the science is right, then what is needed for catastrophe is already in place. Even cutting emissions by 50% by 2030 (or whenever) makes no difference except for delaying the outcome by a few years. Emissions are like inflation. Reducing inflation still means rising prices. Reducing emissions still means rising CO2. Only a scheme of mass scale global level removal of CO2 would change things. Whether this is possible I don't know. But nothing else will do it at all, if the science is right. People are working on it, eg:
Interesting. That looks like the efficiency is 50-70% (if you're lucky) of a FOAK plant that will do a maximum of 35,000 tonnes removal pa that's actually removed and stored.
We emit 35 billion tonnes a year so we'd need between 1.4 to 2 million of these plants, worldwide, to break even. And then you need the geology to be right.
[Of course, that's very conservative. I'm assuming emissions don't go down and there's no other effect of net zero policies but this is one thing Western countries can do to mitigate what other countries don't or won't.]
It's probably realistic to get plant numbers up to the tens of thousands. Maybe even a hundred thousand. But that will take time and there are only c. 60,000 power plants of all types worldwide today so this will only ever be about 5% of the solution unless there's a massive ramp up in capacity and efficiency with sufficient geologically locked storage options, and it can be deployed very quickly at scale.
I've got a few Direct Air Capture plants in my garden. More commonly referred to as trees.
Reforestation, peat bog restoration, etc. all act to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere in a much more amenable fashion than the various versions of DAC under development.
Adding carbon capture to energy from waste plants is also a good net negative approach, since around half of the CO2 they emit is biogenic. Of course, you need to apply it to half of the EfW fleet before you break even.
"This year’s out-of-control blazes released 2bn tonnes of CO2 – probably triple the country’s annual carbon footprint."
Until you develop a fireproof tree, you have a problem.
Wildfires resulting from climate change.
A spiral of doom.
Are you seriously suggesting that in the past forests didn't also burn?
All the carbon in those trees was going to be released one way or another: either they would fall and rot or they would burn. And then they will be replaced by new trees which will capture carbon again.
Not necessarily. Soils are a massive store if organic carbon for a start. And you're assuming the trees will be replaced.
Burning entire forests does three things. It turns your 'eventually' into now; in the current hotter climate it makes reforestation less likely; that it turn makes the growth in soil carbon stores disappear (and possibly reverse).
The next article in the Ideas series will be on the Blob, and will be a synthesis of monitory democracy by John Keane and two video lectures, one by David Starkey and another by JRMogg. Yes really. But first I have to get two (possibly three) in the Measurement series out: one about political parties, another about growth (not degrowth, which is different). The Parties one has to be out by before EP2024 so I'm under the cosh again. Same as it ever was...
I'm pretty sure I'll have similar comments (apologies in advance 😊). Don't take that as my saying the articles are bollocks; quite the opposite.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
We're detecting the possible development of one of his 'solutions' in advance.
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor. In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
Note that wastewater surveillance for particular viruses is starting to become fairly widespread - but the above is possibly unique, so far, in doing whole virome surveillance.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
We're detecting the possible development of one of his 'solutions' in advance.
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor. In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
I would hesitantly suggest that if they're the first people using this method, and the result id this surprising, there might well be a methodological issue with the results. I expect/hope they backed up the results with more conservative/specific approaches to the testing of wastewater..
So little time to post, but two of many pictures (if it works) from Death Valley. Looking into a volcano and the salt flats with a complete stranger for scale. Long journey to the Grand Canyon tomorrow.
I'm not a Doctor Who fan (it's pretty poor sci-fi imv - I know others differ), but I have little problem with a gay, black, Doctor Who, or a female one. In fact, if I had the ability to 'choose' (*) any body, I might try different things occasionally. It seems utterly in line with both the doctor's underlying character (a being that can travel through time and space to all sorts of eras and societies, and is essentially immortal),
I openly admit I don't watch it much any more, and that's partly because the writing became very poor at times, both on an episode and ongoing plot basis. There were shining exceptions, but too much of it was just... unexciting.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
We're detecting the possible development of one of his 'solutions' in advance.
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor. In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
I would hesitantly suggest that if they're the first people using this method, and the result id this surprising, there might well be a methodological issue with the results. I expect/hope they backed up the results with more conservative/specific approaches to the testing of wastewater..
The result is t particularly surprodknh - we line H5N1 is spreading in animal populations. Rather,. it's worrying.
So little time to post, but two of many pictures (if it works) from Death Valley. Looking into a volcano and the salt flats with a complete stranger for scale. Long journey to the Grand Canyon tomorrow.
Great photos; I hope you enjoy your trip.
My brother went to near the Grand Canyon for work, and took a day trip out there. He made the mistake of walking down to the bottom. The was okay; the walk back up nearly killed him.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
We're detecting the possible development of one of his 'solutions' in advance.
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor. In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
I would hesitantly suggest that if they're the first people using this method, and the result id this surprising, there might well be a methodological issue with the results. I expect/hope they backed up the results with more conservative/specific approaches to the testing of wastewater..
The result is t particularly surprodknh - we line H5N1 is spreading in animal populations. Rather,. it's worrying.
Would love to hear how emissions can be cut by at least 50% in the next 66 months (by 2030) without a major- socio-economic shock that slashes economic activity
This MUST happen to have any chance of sidestepping dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown
IIUC, that's actually ecofascism: the theory that says a rapid reduction in the number of humans is the only way of avoiding climate collapse. I name-checked it in the introduction
We're detecting the possible development of one of his 'solutions' in advance.
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor. In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
I would hesitantly suggest that if they're the first people using this method, and the result id this surprising, there might well be a methodological issue with the results. I expect/hope they backed up the results with more conservative/specific approaches to the testing of wastewater..
The result is t particularly surprodknh - we line H5N1 is spreading in animal populations. Rather,. it's worrying.
(Mobile phone garbled - should read isn't particularly surprising.) The techniques they are using are commercially available sequencing - it's not the no one else couldn't. readily do the same; rather it's just not yet being done elsewhere - but it should be.
If governments funded this kind of surveillance worldwide, at the very least it would give us a far better idea if the prevalence of novel potential pandemic viruses - and over time tell us how often they jump into human populations Which until now we just don't know.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I told you a true story about a family member whose funeral I had to speak at about four years ago - quite how the Mail would get hold of it, I don't know
Sorry if my real story wasn't as heartwarming as his, but you can fuck right off with your "Daily Mail diatribe" description. And carry on pretending that there aren't people who have children to get more money, and which kids are then not the priority of the mother; they were well behind the acquisition of heroin in my cousin's case
Looks like a bit of a mess to me. Possible PSC/ERC/Sumar coalition which would have a majority of 1 seat?
The extinction of Cs is objectively very funny.
Turns out that going from a liberal party for the well off and educated, to a right-wing Spanish nationalist party flirting with Vox, is not a winning electoral strategy.
Looks like a bit of a mess to me. Possible PSC/ERC/Sumar coalition which would have a majority of 1 seat?
The extinction of Cs is objectively very funny.
Turns out that going from a liberal party for the well off and educated, to a right-wing Spanish nationalist party flirting with Vox, is not a winning electoral strategy.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I told you a true story about a family member whose funeral I had to speak at about four years ago - quite how the Mail would get hold of it, I don't know
Sorry if my real story wasn't as heartwarming as his, but you can fuck right off with your "Daily Mail diatribe" description. And carry on pretending that there aren't people who have children to get more money, and which kids are then not the priority of the mother; they were well behind the acquisition of heroin in my cousin's case
There is a tendency amongst some to see our own culture - and 'us' - as 'better' than those johnny foreigners.
Likewise, there is a tendency amongst some to see others, and other cultures, as 'better' than us.
Truth can be found in both these positions; but also many falsehoods.
So little time to post, but two of many pictures (if it works) from Death Valley. Looking into a volcano and the salt flats with a complete stranger for scale. Long journey to the Grand Canyon tomorrow.
Wow those are awesome. Proper bucket-list trip there, keep the photos coming!
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Try the local tart (cake to avoid any confusion) and aperitif (the name of both escapes me). This was the end of one of my cycle trips. Both were delicious, but having cycled 500 km may have had something to do with it.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Try the local tart (cake to avoid any confusion) and aperitif (the name of both escapes me). This was the end of one of my cycle trips. Both were delicious, but having cycled 500 km may have had something to do with it.
Here, or in France?
I could try both..
Edit - is it this
Gâteau Basque (Basque: Etxeko bixkotxa; "cake of the house") is a traditional dessert from the Northern Basque region of France, typically filled with black cherry jam or pastry cream. Gâteau Basque with cream is more typical in the Southern Basque region of Spain.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Try the local tart (cake to avoid any confusion) and aperitif (the name of both escapes me). This was the end of one of my cycle trips. Both were delicious, but having cycled 500 km may have had something to do with it.
Here, or in France?
I could try both..
Specially Biarritz. Both are awesome. Sorry being away myself I can't look them up. The drink started with a 'p' I think.
So little time to post, but two of many pictures (if it works) from Death Valley. Looking into a volcano and the salt flats with a complete stranger for scale. Long journey to the Grand Canyon tomorrow.
Wow those are awesome. Proper bucket-list trip there, keep the photos coming!
Thank you. Too many to post, but Death Valley is very impressive. Averaging about 25,000 steps a day so knackered (peanuts for @BlancheLivermore ). 400 miles tomorrow.( In the car obviously) then helicopter ride into the valley the following morning.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Try the local tart (cake to avoid any confusion) and aperitif (the name of both escapes me). This was the end of one of my cycle trips. Both were delicious, but having cycled 500 km may have had something to do with it.
Here, or in France?
I could try both..
Specially Biarritz. Both are awesome. Sorry being away myself I can't look them up. The drink started with a 'p' I think.
Just got back to my hotel from dinner, and I've had the best food of my holiday so far
I decided not to go to a Michelin starred place. I've spent too much on hotels in the last week, so would have been stretching my finances a bit
Instead I went to the second highest rated place on TripAdvisor, a little bar in the old town called Mendaur Berria
It really is small, and was packed out. I walked in and turned around to walk out as I couldn't see anywhere to sit, or any way to get to the bar
Then I heard the music; "Hold On, I'm Coming" by Sam and Dave, and I looked a bit harder. There was one stool free, right in the corner of the bar under the pintxo menu
I had the artichoke (alcachofa), the truffle rice (arroz trufado), then the pig cheeks (carrilleras), followed by the squid (txipiron). All of it was superb
They also carried on playing great soul music all night. I heard seven bands or singers that I've seen live, and nothing that I didn't like
This was the menu I sat under
Are you in San Sebastian?
I am. I'm probably going to leave today, after one more nice lunch
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Try the local tart (cake to avoid any confusion) and aperitif (the name of both escapes me). This was the end of one of my cycle trips. Both were delicious, but having cycled 500 km may have had something to do with it.
Here, or in France?
I could try both..
Specially Biarritz. Both are awesome. Sorry being away myself I can't look them up. The drink started with a 'p' I think.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I have no idea if some Palestinian parents have children purely to become martyrs, or for Hamas subsidies. I am sure there are bad parents motivated for the wrong reasons in every country.
I am sure that the vast majority of parents in all societies have more positive reasons. Palestinians are human beings too with similar aspirations, hopes and dreams as the rest of us.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I have no idea if some Palestinian parents have children purely to become martyrs, or for Hamas subsidies. I am sure there are bad parents motivated for the wrong reasons in every country.
I am sure that the vast majority of parents in all societies have more positive reasons. Palestinians are human beings too with similar aspirations, hopes and dreams as the rest of us.
What happens when the aspirations, hopes and dreams are different to ours? At the moment we have thousands of Russians being thrown into battle based on lies and falsehoods spread by their government. Many of these go willingly. The Russian government is calling for people to have more babies - to make more cannon fodder?
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I have no idea if some Palestinian parents have children purely to become martyrs, or for Hamas subsidies. I am sure there are bad parents motivated for the wrong reasons in every country.
I am sure that the vast majority of parents in all societies have more positive reasons. Palestinians are human beings too with similar aspirations, hopes and dreams as the rest of us.
What happens when the aspirations, hopes and dreams are different to ours? At the moment we have thousands of Russians being thrown into battle based on lies and falsehoods spread by their government. Many of these go willingly. The Russian government is calling for people to have more babies - to make more cannon fodder?
Different people have variations on the same aspirations.
The motivations of the Russian government are very different to the motivations of the average Russian mother (Russia has a TFR of 1.49 btw). In particular I doubt that Russian mothers expect the war to continue another 20 years, or are very positive about it.
There must be Palestinians who want their children to become soldiers and conquerors, as indeed there are in Israel and for that matter in the UK.
Denying the humanity of others and ascribing them the worst of motivations is one of the foundations of murder, terrorism and genocide. This is true for both Hamas and some of its supporters and Israel and some of its supporters.
Off-topic: what are the reasons for such a large and fast fall in the Chinese birth rate?
Create a shitty environment for women to have children in?
People don't have kids if they don't need to have kids.
It's a bit heartless but much of what drives it is, in truth, economics and if you're really well off and can't be arsed then, well, you don't have kids at all.
That's daft. Almost all of us would be better off without children in financial terms.
We have them for non-economic reasons.
Do the Palestinians who want their kids to be martyrs have kids because they want dead Jews, or because they want the Hamas endowment?
I see travel hasn't broadened your mind, nor pilgrimage sites taught you compassion or mercy.
Do you not think these people exist?
Or do you know that they do but want to give them compassion and mercy because Israel?
I ran a 2 week course once for Palestinian doctors at a charitable hospital in the West Bank. There as in Malawi, where I have also run courses people have big families. Both had a TFR of over 4 when I was there. These are poor societies, with meagre incomes and high unemployment. So why do they have so many children?
The answer is that they have few other pleasures in life, other than community and children so even if a further child is economic burden rather than benefit, they have more.
While in richer societies dominated by consumerism like our own, or China or South Korea people have the options for other pleasures. Consumer goods, stimulating careers, academic study, travel, fancy foods, so are less interested in the simple pleasures of domesticity, hearth and family. We see it within our own societies too where there often was an inverse relationship between wealth and TFR, though in recent years less so.
Including in our society where my three years younger, now dead, smack addict cousin had more kids to get extra benefits and a bigger house. They all ended up in care, and she on the streets, of course
But the "safety net" helped to trap her and the poor kids she had
Foxy has just posted one of the most humane, and empathic posts I have ever read on pbCom and you managed to debase it with this Daily Mail diatribe...that takes some doing...
I asked Foxy about whether Palestinian parents, who had children wanting them to be martyrs, existed. Hamas give good money to the mothers of martyrs, and there's plenty of evidence of the existence of such people
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I have no idea if some Palestinian parents have children purely to become martyrs, or for Hamas subsidies. I am sure there are bad parents motivated for the wrong reasons in every country.
I am sure that the vast majority of parents in all societies have more positive reasons. Palestinians are human beings too with similar aspirations, hopes and dreams as the rest of us.
What happens when the aspirations, hopes and dreams are different to ours? At the moment we have thousands of Russians being thrown into battle based on lies and falsehoods spread by their government. Many of these go willingly. The Russian government is calling for people to have more babies - to make more cannon fodder?
Different people have variations on the same aspirations.
The motivations of the Russian government are very different to the motivations of the average Russian mother (Russia has a TFR of 1.49 btw). In particular I doubt that Russian mothers expect the war to continue another 20 years, or are very positive about it.
There must be Palestinians who want their children to become soldiers and conquerors, as indeed there are in Israel and for that matter in the UK.
Denying the humanity of others and ascribing them the worst of motivations is one of the foundations of murder, terrorism and genocide. This is true for both Hamas and some of its supporters and Israel and some of its supporters.
I am not denying the humanity of others. But i fear you are denying that other cultures can have motivations and systems that are antithetical to ours. Not everything is equal; and people raised in systems that are not good from our perspective may have motivations that are also not good.
The next article in the Ideas series will be on the Blob, and will be a synthesis of monitory democracy by John Keane and two video lectures, one by David Starkey and another by JRMogg. Yes really. But first I have to get two (possibly three) in the Measurement series out: one about political parties, another about growth (not degrowth, which is different). The Parties one has to be out by before EP2024 so I'm under the cosh again. Same as it ever was...
The Triggernometry podcast interview with Liz Truss offered quite an interesting real life case study of the blob's constraining impact on Ministerial initiatives.
Comments
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: The Tories have admitted that an ex minister is holding talks with Labour over defecting to the party
[
@theipaper
]
PSC-PSOE 42 seats (+9 from the 2021 election)
Cat-Junts+ 35 (+3)
ERC 20 (-13)
PP 15 (+12)
Vox 11 (+0)
Comuns Sumar 6 (-2)
CUP-DT 4 (-5)
Catalan Alliance 2 (+2)
Cs 0 (-6)
Looks like a bit of a mess to me. Possible PSC/ERC/Sumar coalition which would have a majority of 1 seat?
Poor people have children in pretty desperate circumstances because children and family are pleasures that they can access. This is particularly so for women, who make up a very large share of the world's poorest.
The Grid: a digital frontier. I tried to picture clusters of information as they travelled through the computer. Ships, motorcycles, with the circuits like freeways. I kept dreaming of a world I thought I'd never see. And then one day, i got in...
Suitesound mix (36mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjM8d0Csuk4
Complete soundtrack: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_ncZEqIkjEY-qvlzl_5FVk3JUwGNGFxjwU
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1789749018991395015
Kinship ties matter too as do religious organisations. These act as an informal welfare state in poor counties, with a web of connections and obligations.
Ultimately though we are animals and the closer we live to our basic needs the more the drive and enjoyment of children is to our existence. It is a primeval motivation to continue one's genes, not primarily a financial one.
Sure, money helps with parenting as it does with almost everything else in life, but ultimately the answer to the worldwide crash in TFR comes from revisiting our values.
For example, in Australia there were about 100,000 electric car sales last year. But there were also 200,000 electric bike sales. Various analyses suggest that the switch to much lighter vehicles is the primary reason why transport emissions have fallen - Australian electricity is still very carbon intensive.
Then you have all the other benefits of smaller, lighter, quiter vehicles in Australia's cities, all enabled by battery technology which is in turn stimulated by public policy around the world.
So expect all sorts of weird and interesting changes to way we live our lives, not just a continuation of the old.
https://twitter.com/jayrayner1/status/1789705703633879318
https://twitter.com/MetroUK
Ministers would present annual report of nationality, visa and asylum status of every offender convicted"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/12/civil-servants-oppose-crime-tables-for-migrants/
All the carbon in those trees was going to be released one way or another: either they would fall and rot or they would burn. And then they will be replaced by new trees which will capture carbon again.
Great track from 1983 — "Technology" by The Group.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVB9BcnWKOA
"Given n men and n women, where each person has ranked all members of the opposite sex in order of preference, marry the men and women together such that there are no two people of opposite sex who would both rather have each other than their current partners. When there are no such pairs of people, the set of marriages is deemed stable."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_marriage_problem
It's been many years since I thought about such formal problems, but I think it obvious that, in practice, it is easier to solve in small communities than in large cities. (How much easier is left as an exercise for those who solve such problems regularly.)
(My own experience growing up on a farm gives an example: I had two older sisters, and I think now that they could have ranked all my possible marriage partners in the small town where we lived. And may well have done so, without, of course, telling me.)
And that "but" is that in many places the cohort of women of child bearing age is small. And the next cohort is going to be even smaller.
That means that even returning TFRs to 2 doesn't solve the population pyramid in the medium term, because there are so many oldies.
According to the Sandburg biography, at that time Lincoln was required by law to give what he earned to his father, until he turned 21. So, for example, when he was a crewman on a flatboat with provisions going down to New Orleans, his father was entitled to his wages. And his father sometimes rented Abraham out to neighboring farmers.
(Me? I doubt that I was ever a net contributor to my farm family, when I was growing up, but I could have been had I been more interested in farm work, and less interested in books.)
Many of you made similar points which I'll deal with below. Of those that made individual points:
* @rottenborough: (the power of nightmares as well as dreams): good point, I'll introduce it.
* @Sean_F (the dispossessed by UKLeGuin): That's a good reference. I don't know if I can include it, but glad to be informed
* @Nigelb (Solarpunk utopia sounds a load of bollocks): See below
* @Dura_Ace (Didn't make it to the end, but I'm sure it's terrific): Thank you: I'll put it on the poster...
This was a difficult article to write: the mission was to find out about the idea and present it to you, which is different from a critical analysis. The article describes solarpunk, characterises its final form as a utopia requiring progressive politics, criticises utopias but notes their popularity in a political space with no utopian competitors. More than that would have required me to inject my own views, which was not in the brief: I'm an analyst not a journalist, and I didn't want to write one of those articles that winks at the audience and says "this is all bollocks really". In short, I didn't want to chew your food for you.
Incidentally I recommend "Black Mass": John Gray is a terrible writer in this book but if you can plough through the clotted text he excoriates utopias and gives many examples
What I wasn't expecting was so much detailed info about green tech. That would belong in the "Solarpunk Cities" section, which is Green's short-term aim but deprecated by the Solarpunkists who think it unambitious.
So what to do? Every article has an "extended cut" follow-up, which incorporates the ideas in the comments. In this case, it will require two more paragraphs: one expanding on the green tech ideas presented in the comments, another on how the usefulness of the Greens may be not in themselves but as ideas generators for other parties. It may be an idea to spin off your green tech comments into a prequel article: "Solarpunk: the prequel"
Due to time constraints I don't know when that will be: probably after September tbh. Apols
Thanks as ever to @TheScreamingEagles for publishing it.
Soils are a massive store if organic carbon for a start.
And you're assuming the trees will be replaced.
Burning entire forests does three things.
It turns your 'eventually' into now; in the current hotter climate it makes reforestation less likely; that it turn makes the growth in soil carbon stores disappear (and possibly reverse).
So no, your analysis is very likely very wrong.
Don't take that as my saying the articles are bollocks; quite the opposite.
https://twitter.com/MikeTisza/status/1789268107040616904
Many people are wondering how we can monitor this H5N1 situation. We sequence the whole virome from wastewater, and, well, H5N1 started showing up in our samples...
In samples from early March onward we started finding sequencing reads that clearly derived from H5N1 influenza genomes, eventually finding positive samples in 9 of 10 cities that we monitor.
In some cases it's a trickle, in some cases we see levels comparable to seasonal flu...
Bur where is it coming from? Birds, cows, cats, people? In short, we don't know, but we have not seen any mutations known to confer an adaptive advantage in humans, so we are leaning towards non-human for most of the signal...
Our network is in Texas, but I want to be clear that, to my knowledge, no one else in the world is using this sensitive and agnostic technology that can find concerning viruses before we know to look for them. So, likely this virus is in wastewater in other areas...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c3733b8a-6767-46ee-8e48-127a4777d9c2?shareToken=14e0fc3b752f7bd23b7f190a12ddb878
So little time to post, but two of many pictures (if it works) from Death Valley. Looking into a volcano and the salt flats with a complete stranger for scale. Long journey to the Grand Canyon tomorrow.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/05/11/sorry-straight-white-men-doctor-never-made-20792066/
I'm not a Doctor Who fan (it's pretty poor sci-fi imv - I know others differ), but I have little problem with a gay, black, Doctor Who, or a female one. In fact, if I had the ability to 'choose' (*) any body, I might try different things occasionally. It seems utterly in line with both the doctor's underlying character (a being that can travel through time and space to all sorts of eras and societies, and is essentially immortal),
I openly admit I don't watch it much any more, and that's partly because the writing became very poor at times, both on an episode and ongoing plot basis. There were shining exceptions, but too much of it was just... unexciting.
(*) Whether by choice or randomness.
Rather,. it's worrying.
My brother went to near the Grand Canyon for work, and took a day trip out there. He made the mistake of walking down to the bottom. The was okay; the walk back up nearly killed him.
The techniques they are using are commercially available sequencing - it's not the no one else couldn't. readily do the same; rather it's just not yet being done elsewhere - but it should be.
The methodology is set out in this paper:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.10.24307179v1.full.pdf
If governments funded this kind of surveillance worldwide, at the very least it would give us a far better idea if the prevalence of novel potential pandemic viruses - and over time tell us how often they jump into human populations
Which until now we just don't know.
Taco on don't even cost that much.
He avoided the question, presumably because the honest answer would conflict with his internal moral logic. Instead he gave me some kumbaya story from his personal experience
I told you a true story about a family member whose funeral I had to speak at about four years ago - quite how the Mail would get hold of it, I don't know
Sorry if my real story wasn't as heartwarming as his, but you can fuck right off with your "Daily Mail diatribe" description. And carry on pretending that there aren't people who have children to get more money, and which kids are then not the priority of the mother; they were well behind the acquisition of heroin in my cousin's case
Turns out that going from a liberal party for the well off and educated, to a right-wing Spanish nationalist party flirting with Vox, is not a winning electoral strategy.
I think I'm going to go to Bayonne on the bus this afternoon, then wander back to wherever I can book in Biarritz for my flight home tomorrow morning
Likewise, there is a tendency amongst some to see others, and other cultures, as 'better' than us.
Truth can be found in both these positions; but also many falsehoods.
I could try both..
Edit - is it this
Gâteau Basque (Basque: Etxeko bixkotxa; "cake of the house") is a traditional dessert from the Northern Basque region of France, typically filled with black cherry jam or pastry cream. Gâteau Basque with cream is more typical in the Southern Basque region of Spain.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gâteau_Basque
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patxaran
Since you asked.
NEW THREAD
I am sure that the vast majority of parents in all societies have more positive reasons. Palestinians are human beings too with similar aspirations, hopes and dreams as the rest of us.
The motivations of the Russian government are very different to the motivations of the average Russian mother (Russia has a TFR of 1.49 btw). In particular I doubt that Russian mothers expect the war to continue another 20 years, or are very positive about it.
There must be Palestinians who want their children to become soldiers and conquerors, as indeed there are in Israel and for that matter in the UK.
Denying the humanity of others and ascribing them the worst of motivations is one of the foundations of murder, terrorism and genocide. This is true for both Hamas and some of its supporters and Israel and some of its supporters.