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More polls like this and a January 2025 election will be nailed on – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    Foxy said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    Add Gaza and its a deal.
    Next you'll be wanting to talk about the war in Sudan or Myanmar. We all know there is only one war at a time and it must consume 100% of the media's attention.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Want to know why the Tories will lose? Watch Clarkson’s Farm
    https://www.cityam.com/want-to-know-why-the-tories-will-lose-watch-clarksons-farm/

    I don't understand what the Tories have done to farming. It was practically a block vote, and the CAP was agreeably bad. All they had to do was engage with farmers and replace CAP with something better.

    Instead? Replaced with practically nothing. Farmers ignored, sneered at, patronised. Tory MPs like David Duguid print leaflets practically lying about how great it is for famers and how they all support him.

    And here we are. Rural England swinging as sharply away from the Tories as urban areas. Absolutely stupid.
    Indeed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/uk-farmers-consider-quitting-after-extreme-wet-weather-and-low-profits
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    The prime minister met today with university vice-chancellors and Jewish groups to discuss what to do about student protests. Mostly taking the form of "encampments" - occupations of outside areas - these protests are critical of Israel's assault on Gaza and the British government's support for Israel. Apparently they are a really big problem that required the prime minister's time and couldn't have been handled by James Cleverly or Gillian Keegan.

    The path to a Tory election victory is crystal clear. A July election is likely.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/may/09/university-leaders-must-take-personal-care-to-protect-jewish-students-sunak-says

    Apparently university leaders should take "personal responsibility". In other words they've been told to follow the line and not dare to step outside of it if they know what's good for them - personally.

    What the students should do now is demand to have their own meeting with Sunak as a matter of urgency - live-streamed to all the encampments so they can decide direct-democratically on a response.

    Set up a table in a big tent, put chairs around it, and keep one chair with Sunak's name-sign in front of it.

    C'mon Sunak, if you're hard enough. Want to say something to us? Come and say it, because we want to say something to you too.

    Sometimes I wonder whether anyone under 50 has even heard of Saul Alinsky, let alone read him.
    I am over 50 and I hadn't. Name sounds as if he might not have been on the Palestine team...

    BUT what I learn from Wikipedia is he was a Chicagan activist on behalf of poor Chicagans. Have you no idea how impossible that is from an English perspective? You activise on behalf of people on a different continent, in Palestine or South Africa, or trans people who are so rare that they do not to a first approximation exist. Because actually engaging with the appalling social injustice on your doorstep which you could influence would be much harder work than putting up a tent, and you would have to interact with the most awful fat people in jdsports clothes off council estates. Eeeuw.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Please, please, please Rishi. Call an election today.

    Then PB might just stop going on about trans issues, at least for a few weeks.

    Preach it, brother*

    If I am banned from mentioning REDACTED then perhaps this subject-ban might usefully be applied elsewhere. BLOODY TRANS, AGAIN

    *or sister, or theyster
    Close call. Your stuff on REDACTED or lots of folk on trans? Maybe PB should vote on which is worse.
    REDACTED is about the only thing Leon writes about that is of both interest and import!
    And I am banned from writing about it. Honestly. The stuff I could tell you but I can’t - it would make your hair curl. Speak to the authorities
    I have not complained to anyone, but as someone who puts other people's money into the space, I tend to think that most of what you write on the subject is pretty abject bollocks.
    Surely not?!???
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    edited May 9

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Oh Lord .. this is approaching the twattery of Trans for Hamas.,

    On topic, if Sunak waits to January, then I would place a bet on the next leader of HM Opposition being Sir Edward Davey.

    William Hill has prices on who will be runner-up:-
    Con 1/5
    LibDem 5/1 (was 12/1 so you have missed the price)
    Labour 12/1
    RefUK 14/1
    Greens 150/1
    SNP not quoted, although it is just about possible if they sweep Scotland and Labour sweep England and Wales.
    Unless Labour also do well in Scotland it gets tricky avoiding a hung Parliament of course.
    If you put the YouGov figures into Electoral Calculus you come out with the Tories as fourth largest party.

    I don't think this will happen but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility. A 2025
    GE would of course make it more likely,.
    If you put the YouGov figures into Electoral Calculus then Starmer could spin off the Co-op Party and they could be the Official Opposition.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Being a Leeds fan for a day would be bad enough, but a whole week?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,657
    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies to go through IMO. Outside chance for Norwich.

    Leeds are a mess. The old farm Derby in the Prem would be fun, and taking points off Norwich next season quite likely.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515
    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies fan here, agnostic on that one.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies to go through IMO. Outside chance for Norwich.

    Leeds are a mess. The old farm Derby in the Prem would be fun, and taking points off Norwich next season quite likely.
    Leicester will struggle - their strikers won't enjoy the same freedom against Premiership defences they did against Championship defences but the big problem is the defence and the silly goals conceded by the back four knocking the ball around until they give it away.

    The Premiership strikers will have a field day.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    As a Saints fan I feel a bit like the average Tory MP, doomed to go down with Sunak's ship. Best of luck at Wembley.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,657
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies to go through IMO. Outside chance for Norwich.

    Leeds are a mess. The old farm Derby in the Prem would be fun, and taking points off Norwich next season quite likely.
    Leicester will struggle - their strikers won't enjoy the same freedom against Premiership defences they did against Championship defences but the big problem is the defence and the silly goals conceded by the back four knocking the ball around until they give it away.

    The Premiership strikers will have a field day.
    I expect we will struggle. We are skint and will have a points deduction, but I don't worry about the style of play.The toughest teams this year were the ones that parked the bus against us. The ones that came to attack we did well against. See our FA cups against Bournemouth and Chelsea this season.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Absolutely insane, if true.

    TRUMP ASKED OIL CEOS AT MAR-A-LAGO TO RAISE $1 BILLION FOR HIS CAMPAIGN, VOWED TO TARGET EVS - WASHINGTON POST
    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1788541185407033675

    So what's the Elon Musk angle here? Assuming there IS one; reckon that's an above-average bet!
    Massive tarrifs on the Chinese EVs that threaten to dump the market next year, leaving Tesla with an effective monopoly on US EV sales.
    All the other auto makers in the US are making electric vehicles now. Somewhat grudgingly. But even so.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2024/03/22/10-us-electric-car-sales-stats-13-charts/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,082

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
    Speaking as somebody who commutes over 200 miles each week, mostly by train, whilst sitting next to people who stink of drugs, drunks, inchoate people with random words, rowdy kids, families with eight-year old children travelling at around 11pm, people who want to be hard bastards, people who are hard bastards, potential rapists, football fans, Jordan Petersen fans, more drunks and all possible combinations of the mad, the bad and the sad, I would advise you to fall to your knees and pray to whichever God you align to that you never have to be on one again.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    DM_Andy said:

    As a Saints fan I feel a bit like the average Tory MP, doomed to go down with Sunak's ship. Best of luck at Wembley.

    And miss out on the fun of some South Coast Derbies next season?
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
    Speaking as somebody who commutes over 200 miles each week, mostly by train, whilst sitting next to people who stink of drugs, drunks, inchoate people with random words, rowdy kids, families with eight-year old children travelling at around 11pm, people who want to be hard bastards, people who are hard bastards, potential rapists, football fans, Jordan Petersen fans, more drunks and all possible combinations of the mad, the bad and the sad, I would advise you to fall to your knees and pray to whichever God you align to that you never have to be on one again.
    Inchoate does not mean what you think it means
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    Received my Revolution trains N gauge class 59 today. Been waiting since the late 1980’s for this. Very happy.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies to go through IMO. Outside chance for Norwich.

    Leeds are a mess. The old farm Derby in the Prem would be fun, and taking points off Norwich next season quite likely.
    Leicester will struggle - their strikers won't enjoy the same freedom against Premiership defences they did against Championship defences but the big problem is the defence and the silly goals conceded by the back four knocking the ball around until they give it away.

    The Premiership strikers will have a field day.
    We’ve relied on scoring as many or more as our opponents- particularly towards the end of this season. If we’re to avoid coming straight back down again, fixing that has to be a priority.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,082
    megasaur said:

    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
    Speaking as somebody who commutes over 200 miles each week, mostly by train, whilst sitting next to people who stink of drugs, drunks, inchoate people with random words, rowdy kids, families with eight-year old children travelling at around 11pm, people who want to be hard bastards, people who are hard bastards, potential rapists, football fans, Jordan Petersen fans, more drunks and all possible combinations of the mad, the bad and the sad, I would advise you to fall to your knees and pray to whichever God you align to that you never have to be on one again.
    Inchoate does not mean what you think it means
    I may be right here. I meant it in the sense of people who don't really join up, who say things spontaneously and seemingly at random. Their personality is not fully formed. I didn't mean "incoherent", which involves babbling and nonsense words/sentences
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    So I made it to Saint Jean Pied de Port on day twenty, but it wasn't quite the cakewalk I'd hoped for..

    I lost phone reception just as I got into France, so couldn't check for rooms for tonight. When I finally got back online, 8km from town, the whole place and surrounding area was fully booked

    The only room within 25km cost 373€. I managed to find a place, but it was 36km away back in Spain. So I went looking for a cab but had absolutely no luck; none of them wanted to go that far

    I then happened upon the Camino help centre, where a small team of volunteers help pilgrims find rooms. There a lovely French lady called Véronique (who used to work at the Tiptree jam factory when she was eighteen) found me a taxi, and called the hotel to let them know I'd be late

    The cab cost me 100€, but I'm now in Elizondo, have checked in at the hotel and found an open taberna for dinner

    Didn't work out quite as expected, but it's turned out fine

    Cool.

    If I were you I would have a bivvi bag and sleeping bag with me and kip in a field. But it's easy to give that sort of advice remotely, and congratulations on your journey
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    Cyclefree said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Massive crackdown on popular dissent in Georgia.

    Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level. ..
    https://twitter.com/EtoBuziashvili/status/1788278445224464886

    This goes one of two ways.

    How do
    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    malcolmg said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    DougSeal said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    148grss said:

    isam said:

    148grss said:

    isam said:

    Watching this race, it came to me that you could remake every Competitive Dad sketch from The Fast Show with a trans ‘woman’ as the Dad, and an actual woman as the kids, and it would work perfectly

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.

    Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”

    (Joint release with @ThePublicaNow)

    https://x.com/reduxxmag/status/1788286633650868612?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    And? The record for under 18 400m for girls is like 50 seconds; for men it's closer to 45 seconds. That this girl runs 400 m in 56-57 seconds makes her, like, a good amateur?

    https://worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/sprints/400-metres/all/women/u18?regionType=world&timing=electronic&page=1&bestResultsOnly=true&firstDay=1900-01-01&lastDay=2024-05-09&maxResultsByCountry=all&eventId=10229511&ageCategory=u18

    https://www.athletic.net/athlete/24853874/track-and-field/high-school

    I assume that OR, like many places that allow trans athletes to compete, have rules around when students can participate (from what I can find students have to have been transitioning consistently and cannot participate in the same year they started their transition). I have no idea how old this girl is - but this is a tenth grade competition, so she is likely 15-16. If she's on HRT muscle mass and strength typically is one of the first things to fall in line with new hormones (3-6months).
    He’s not on HRT, so it’s literally a boy competing in the girls race
    I couldn't find any information on if she was on HRT or not (that's why I said if) - can you give me a citation for that assertion?
    His calves.
    Can you see how this could be seen as just straight up misogyny and why people like me say that this policing of women's bodies is bad for cis and trans women? Are you saying any woman who has calf definition similar to this athlete is actually a man? You can "just tell" who is a trans or cis woman by looking at them?
    This isn't policing women's bodies. It's straight up fairness. You cannot have a fair competition between men and women in sports that involve the deployment of muscle mass. There is a lot of generalisation but splitting sports between the sexes, while by no-means perfect, is the best way we have to create something of a level playing field (pun intended).

    I'm someone who competed at a reasonably high level in sprint events when I was a teenager, trained with boys and girls my own age, and my lived experience (which is all that counts these days apparently) is that it would have been unfair for us to compete with one another in events that mattered.
    We do not know if this young athlete is on HRT and, if so, for how long she has been. For all I know she could have never had a testosterone based puberty - she may have been on puberty blockers and got straight onto HRT. To say that you can tell this girl is "really a boy" just by looking at her is completely misogynist - in the same way that those who call Michelle Obama "secretly a man" is. Many cis women who do not conform to feminine beauty standards will be insulted by calling them men; many cis women have been harassed, in toilets and other public spaces, because they were considered too manish and people thought they were trans. It's all the same thing - policing women's bodies based on expectations of femininity.
    We don't need to go into observed physical attributes. The original report notes that s/he is a biological male. The what-iffery is beside the point. Men should not be in women's races, and boys - post about 11 - should not be in girls' ones. Or, at least, should not be allowed to compete to win or to set records.
    Transphobes call women who have been on HRT most of their life and have had gender affirming surgeries "biological males" - it doesn't mean anything. Again - we have no idea if this athlete even had a testosterone based puberty. She may have been on HRT for years, and it is known that muscle mass is one of the first things to fall within a typical cis women's range when trans women start HRT (as noted, 3 - 6 months). Calling her a "biological male" in reporting (reporting from right wing / "independent" news orgs) is, again, just transphobia
    148grss, you have repeatedly made this point that maybe she’s been on HRT for years and not experienced a testosterone-based puberty. So, are you saying that these things matter? If she had only started HRT the day before, would it then be unfair for her to compete against ciswomen?

    Are you (implicitly) proposing that transwomen should only be able to compete against ciswomen under certain circumstances relating to their transition and hormone use?
    what is this ciswoman mince, can you not just say it as it is "woman". rather than using the bollox ( pun not intended ) PC crap.
    A cis woman is a woman who isn't a trans woman; it's pretty simple. Cis and trans are Latin prefixes used to denote closeness to and farness away from (the usage for cisalpine Gaul in the Roman period to mean those Gauls on the Roman side of the Alpines, and transalpine Gaul for those Gauls on the far side of the Alpines from Rome, for example).
    When you put it like that, isn’t the term transwoman transphobic because it implies distance from womanhood?
    Language is weird - but the trans in this context is farness from assigned gender at birth.
    Do you think that the practice of assigning gender at birth should be abandoned?
    Surely it's outrageous for a parent to make assumptions about a child's religion, sexual orientation or gender until they are old enough to make that decision for themselves?
    I think there is a difference between making an assumption and then forcing their kids. Most people are cis, most people are straight, etc. But if your kid comes out and you basically say "no" - that's a problem. Even if that child is "going through a phase" or "experimenting" - what's the issue with saying "sure, okay, keep talking to me and know I'm here for advice" rather than saying "no your not, I know you, that's not possible, no child of mine, etc!"
    Firstly, it's a joke. Possibly a very poor one, but obviously a joke.

    Secondly, everyone should be treated (and called) what they wish to be called. If you want me to call you "Janice" and "she/her", then I will obviously comply, because to do otherwise would be incredibly rude and disrespectful. This isn't complicated. I don't care what your views on "trans" are, you treat other people as you would like to be treated yourself.

    Thirdly, it is - or should be - a free world. You want to wear a dress, or whatever, knock yourself out. And if a child wants to experiment, good for them. As a parent I would obviously be 100% supportive if my child said "I don't know if I'm really an [x]". Although, I always ask "what characteristic of [x] is it that makes you feel that way?"

    Fourthly, this has nothing to do with changing rooms. Safe spaces for women exist for a reason: it's because people with penises will lie in order to access women's only spaces. The simple solution - which they've implemented brilliantly in the changing rooms in the Olympic Pool in Stratford - is private changing areas. We should have more of those, albeit it's a long road to get there.

    Fifthly, sports is separated into men's and women's because there are certain physical advantages that come with XX rather than XY. It's not separated according to how you feel, but by the genetic advantages that accrue to a certain biological sex. Change the names if you like: it's the XX Tennis Champion, and the XY Tennis Champion, but it's nothing to do with how you feel or identify, and all about whether you have genetic physical advantages.

    Points 1-3 I will take.

    Point 4 - trans women should be barred from refuges because it may be abused by cis men? Why? There is no evidence that trans women are more of a threat than cis women to other women, and they have more in common with cis women in terms of being victims of sexual abuse and being perpetrators of sexual assault. If an individual is a concern entering a refuge, that is fair and should be managed. A women's refuge wouldn't still allow in a same sex partner of an abused woman - so being a woman isn't the only qualification to get in to a woman's refuge.

    Point 5 - The advantages are not related to chromosomal type, they are associated with the effect of hormones on the body, which you can change. Taking cross sex hormones make trans peoples' bodies more in line with the typical cis body associated with those hormones. I have already detailed some of the changes that happen and how long people have to be on hormones to experience those changes, such as muscle mass in trans women being more in line with cis women within 3-6 months of taking HRT. Also - cis women are being policed based on their testosterone levels and other things - not their chromosomal type. So women are policed in sports beyond sex - it is based on a "standard" woman that, itself, is restrictive to the right "kind" of woman.
    OK.

    Point 4 is where we get to a very difficult point.

    I completely agree that many trans women are abused. I completely agree they should be protected.

    But how do you prevent an abuser from claiming to be a trans woman to gain access to a refuge? It's the same issue with prisons: non-trans abusers will - and have - used self ID to abuse women. This isn't about trans women being pervy. They are not. It is about sexual predators lying. How do you solve this issue?

    Point 5, you are factually wrong. Even if you take hormones, you will still have a womb, and your body will still be using energy to keep the womb warm at the expense of the extremeties. Men, by contrast, don't have this. That's because women's bodies are designed to keep babies alive at the expense of a finger lost to frostbite.
    FPT:

    How do women's refuges currently prevent potentially abusive women from entering a space? They will do a safeguarding check. Trans women have been going to women's refuges for all my life, using women's toilets and changing rooms, etc etc. The issues are rare - there is no pattern of behaviour that suggest trans women are a unique threat.

    I'm gonna get out my citations again: recent studies show that trans women may be at biological disadvantages to cis women:

    https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/10/bjsports-2023-108029.abstract

    And that most advantages that may exist early in transition are just that, seen early in transition, and declines the longer that trans women are on HRT:

    https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/11/577
    This is the author of the paper that preposterously claims that trans women may have a biological disadvantage against cis women. In any other context you would be very suspicious about bias and vested interests.

    image
    Glad to see that this is totally based on an understanding of articles and journals and not just bigotry.
    Men playing in women's sports are cheats, whatever label you give them.

    If you have just one sporting category with men competing against women then men will win all the prizes and women will be injured.

    Either of these policies are hideously unfair to women and girls at all levels of sport.

    Fiddling around with hormones is irrelevant. Women are not a sort of lesser version of men with slightly less testosterone. Men's bodies are made differently and those differences matter from childhood onwards, even before puberty, and very definitely thereafter.
    Don't reply to him is my advice he is just an arsehole
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,082

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It's not just the constant arguing, it's the fact that it's become really intense. It's like that scene in "Kingsman" where the phones go up and "Freebird" comes on the soundtrack and Mr Darcy kills everybody.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Good news:

    Excellent news. EHRC recently been restored to its role as regulator of equalities law, which involves advising on rights conflicts. Good to see this childish attempt from Stonewall to get it sanctioned for not prioritising one protected characteristic over all others fail.

    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1788649364014936321
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Israel now on in Eurovision semi-final!
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,916
    megasaur said:

    So I made it to Saint Jean Pied de Port on day twenty, but it wasn't quite the cakewalk I'd hoped for..

    I lost phone reception just as I got into France, so couldn't check for rooms for tonight. When I finally got back online, 8km from town, the whole place and surrounding area was fully booked

    The only room within 25km cost 373€. I managed to find a place, but it was 36km away back in Spain. So I went looking for a cab but had absolutely no luck; none of them wanted to go that far

    I then happened upon the Camino help centre, where a small team of volunteers help pilgrims find rooms. There a lovely French lady called Véronique (who used to work at the Tiptree jam factory when she was eighteen) found me a taxi, and called the hotel to let them know I'd be late

    The cab cost me 100€, but I'm now in Elizondo, have checked in at the hotel and found an open taberna for dinner

    Didn't work out quite as expected, but it's turned out fine

    Cool.

    If I were you I would have a bivvi bag and sleeping bag with me and kip in a field. But it's easy to give that sort of advice remotely, and congratulations on your journey
    Thanks!

    I could sleep in a field, but I really rather fancied a bed and a lie in after walking 820km in the last twenty days
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    DM_Andy said:

    As a Saints fan I feel a bit like the average Tory MP, doomed to go down with Sunak's ship. Best of luck at Wembley.

    And miss out on the fun of some South Coast Derbies next season?
    It's not fun to have South Coast Derbies. Last time one of them punched a police horse because the police were stopping them getting to the travelling Saints fans.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
    Shoe-box-tastic.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    "Sunak will want to avoid earning that contumely moniker"

    "Contumely" is a noun FFS!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
    Shoe-box-tastic.
    All please rise for the demonstration of the Holy Trinity


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,835
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Massive crackdown on popular dissent in Georgia.

    Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level. ..
    https://twitter.com/EtoBuziashvili/status/1788278445224464886

    This goes one of two ways.

    How do
    148grss said:

    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    malcolmg said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    DougSeal said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    148grss said:

    isam said:

    148grss said:

    isam said:

    Watching this race, it came to me that you could remake every Competitive Dad sketch from The Fast Show with a trans ‘woman’ as the Dad, and an actual woman as the kids, and it would work perfectly

    🚨BREAKING🚨

    A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.

    Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”

    (Joint release with @ThePublicaNow)

    https://x.com/reduxxmag/status/1788286633650868612?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    And? The record for under 18 400m for girls is like 50 seconds; for men it's closer to 45 seconds. That this girl runs 400 m in 56-57 seconds makes her, like, a good amateur?

    https://worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/sprints/400-metres/all/women/u18?regionType=world&timing=electronic&page=1&bestResultsOnly=true&firstDay=1900-01-01&lastDay=2024-05-09&maxResultsByCountry=all&eventId=10229511&ageCategory=u18

    https://www.athletic.net/athlete/24853874/track-and-field/high-school

    I assume that OR, like many places that allow trans athletes to compete, have rules around when students can participate (from what I can find students have to have been transitioning consistently and cannot participate in the same year they started their transition). I have no idea how old this girl is - but this is a tenth grade competition, so she is likely 15-16. If she's on HRT muscle mass and strength typically is one of the first things to fall in line with new hormones (3-6months).
    He’s not on HRT, so it’s literally a boy competing in the girls race
    I couldn't find any information on if she was on HRT or not (that's why I said if) - can you give me a citation for that assertion?
    His calves.
    Can you see how this could be seen as just straight up misogyny and why people like me say that this policing of women's bodies is bad for cis and trans women? Are you saying any woman who has calf definition similar to this athlete is actually a man? You can "just tell" who is a trans or cis woman by looking at them?
    This isn't policing women's bodies. It's straight up fairness. You cannot have a fair competition between men and women in sports that involve the deployment of muscle mass. There is a lot of generalisation but splitting sports between the sexes, while by no-means perfect, is the best way we have to create something of a level playing field (pun intended).

    I'm someone who competed at a reasonably high level in sprint events when I was a teenager, trained with boys and girls my own age, and my lived experience (which is all that counts these days apparently) is that it would have been unfair for us to compete with one another in events that mattered.
    We do not know if this young athlete is on HRT and, if so, for how long she has been. For all I know she could have never had a testosterone based puberty - she may have been on puberty blockers and got straight onto HRT. To say that you can tell this girl is "really a boy" just by looking at her is completely misogynist - in the same way that those who call Michelle Obama "secretly a man" is. Many cis women who do not conform to feminine beauty standards will be insulted by calling them men; many cis women have been harassed, in toilets and other public spaces, because they were considered too manish and people thought they were trans. It's all the same thing - policing women's bodies based on expectations of femininity.
    We don't need to go into observed physical attributes. The original report notes that s/he is a biological male. The what-iffery is beside the point. Men should not be in women's races, and boys - post about 11 - should not be in girls' ones. Or, at least, should not be allowed to compete to win or to set records.
    Transphobes call women who have been on HRT most of their life and have had gender affirming surgeries "biological males" - it doesn't mean anything. Again - we have no idea if this athlete even had a testosterone based puberty. She may have been on HRT for years, and it is known that muscle mass is one of the first things to fall within a typical cis women's range when trans women start HRT (as noted, 3 - 6 months). Calling her a "biological male" in reporting (reporting from right wing / "independent" news orgs) is, again, just transphobia
    148grss, you have repeatedly made this point that maybe she’s been on HRT for years and not experienced a testosterone-based puberty. So, are you saying that these things matter? If she had only started HRT the day before, would it then be unfair for her to compete against ciswomen?

    Are you (implicitly) proposing that transwomen should only be able to compete against ciswomen under certain circumstances relating to their transition and hormone use?
    what is this ciswoman mince, can you not just say it as it is "woman". rather than using the bollox ( pun not intended ) PC crap.
    A cis woman is a woman who isn't a trans woman; it's pretty simple. Cis and trans are Latin prefixes used to denote closeness to and farness away from (the usage for cisalpine Gaul in the Roman period to mean those Gauls on the Roman side of the Alpines, and transalpine Gaul for those Gauls on the far side of the Alpines from Rome, for example).
    When you put it like that, isn’t the term transwoman transphobic because it implies distance from womanhood?
    Language is weird - but the trans in this context is farness from assigned gender at birth.
    Do you think that the practice of assigning gender at birth should be abandoned?
    Surely it's outrageous for a parent to make assumptions about a child's religion, sexual orientation or gender until they are old enough to make that decision for themselves?
    I think there is a difference between making an assumption and then forcing their kids. Most people are cis, most people are straight, etc. But if your kid comes out and you basically say "no" - that's a problem. Even if that child is "going through a phase" or "experimenting" - what's the issue with saying "sure, okay, keep talking to me and know I'm here for advice" rather than saying "no your not, I know you, that's not possible, no child of mine, etc!"
    Firstly, it's a joke. Possibly a very poor one, but obviously a joke.

    Secondly, everyone should be treated (and called) what they wish to be called. If you want me to call you "Janice" and "she/her", then I will obviously comply, because to do otherwise would be incredibly rude and disrespectful. This isn't complicated. I don't care what your views on "trans" are, you treat other people as you would like to be treated yourself.

    Thirdly, it is - or should be - a free world. You want to wear a dress, or whatever, knock yourself out. And if a child wants to experiment, good for them. As a parent I would obviously be 100% supportive if my child said "I don't know if I'm really an [x]". Although, I always ask "what characteristic of [x] is it that makes you feel that way?"

    Fourthly, this has nothing to do with changing rooms. Safe spaces for women exist for a reason: it's because people with penises will lie in order to access women's only spaces. The simple solution - which they've implemented brilliantly in the changing rooms in the Olympic Pool in Stratford - is private changing areas. We should have more of those, albeit it's a long road to get there.

    Fifthly, sports is separated into men's and women's because there are certain physical advantages that come with XX rather than XY. It's not separated according to how you feel, but by the genetic advantages that accrue to a certain biological sex. Change the names if you like: it's the XX Tennis Champion, and the XY Tennis Champion, but it's nothing to do with how you feel or identify, and all about whether you have genetic physical advantages.

    Points 1-3 I will take.

    Point 4 - trans women should be barred from refuges because it may be abused by cis men? Why? There is no evidence that trans women are more of a threat than cis women to other women, and they have more in common with cis women in terms of being victims of sexual abuse and being perpetrators of sexual assault. If an individual is a concern entering a refuge, that is fair and should be managed. A women's refuge wouldn't still allow in a same sex partner of an abused woman - so being a woman isn't the only qualification to get in to a woman's refuge.

    Point 5 - The advantages are not related to chromosomal type, they are associated with the effect of hormones on the body, which you can change. Taking cross sex hormones make trans peoples' bodies more in line with the typical cis body associated with those hormones. I have already detailed some of the changes that happen and how long people have to be on hormones to experience those changes, such as muscle mass in trans women being more in line with cis women within 3-6 months of taking HRT. Also - cis women are being policed based on their testosterone levels and other things - not their chromosomal type. So women are policed in sports beyond sex - it is based on a "standard" woman that, itself, is restrictive to the right "kind" of woman.
    OK.

    Point 4 is where we get to a very difficult point.

    I completely agree that many trans women are abused. I completely agree they should be protected.

    But how do you prevent an abuser from claiming to be a trans woman to gain access to a refuge? It's the same issue with prisons: non-trans abusers will - and have - used self ID to abuse women. This isn't about trans women being pervy. They are not. It is about sexual predators lying. How do you solve this issue?

    Point 5, you are factually wrong. Even if you take hormones, you will still have a womb, and your body will still be using energy to keep the womb warm at the expense of the extremeties. Men, by contrast, don't have this. That's because women's bodies are designed to keep babies alive at the expense of a finger lost to frostbite.
    FPT:

    How do women's refuges currently prevent potentially abusive women from entering a space? They will do a safeguarding check. Trans women have been going to women's refuges for all my life, using women's toilets and changing rooms, etc etc. The issues are rare - there is no pattern of behaviour that suggest trans women are a unique threat.

    I'm gonna get out my citations again: recent studies show that trans women may be at biological disadvantages to cis women:

    https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/10/bjsports-2023-108029.abstract

    And that most advantages that may exist early in transition are just that, seen early in transition, and declines the longer that trans women are on HRT:

    https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/11/577
    This is the author of the paper that preposterously claims that trans women may have a biological disadvantage against cis women. In any other context you would be very suspicious about bias and vested interests.

    image
    Glad to see that this is totally based on an understanding of articles and journals and not just bigotry.
    Why are you so deferential to anything published in a journal (provided that it confirms your preconceived view)? What's your view on the replication crisis in academia?
    I'm deferential to journals and peer review because that alternative is believe in your gut? Like, it's an imperfect method - but it's the best we've got. And it's certainly better than going "that person looks are somehow more important than their research (which was conducted with lots of other researchers, reviewed and deemed suitable for publication)".

    My thought on replication crisis is to do more research - keep trying the same experiments, scenarios, etc and collate bigger data sets. Try to broaden the people represented in research, by age range, by class, by race, by gender, etc etc. We make models of understanding based on the research we have, we obviously have uncertainty, but at the end of the day it's the best system we have of understanding how things work.
    The alternative isn't to believe your gut but to use your brain.

    If research funded by a tobacco company said that there was no link between smoking and lung cancer, you would be the first to smell a rat and come up with elaborate theoretical explanations for why the research should be dismissed out of hand.
    You've just, today, effectively claimed, knowingly or otherwise, that a single person has committed serious scientific fraud.

    Have another look at your post at 4.38 pm and my reply to it.
    The principal contributor and author of the write-up is the person in the photo.

    I haven't alleged fraud, but it's a fact that the only reason the paper exists is because the author(s) wanted to further an ideological position regarding the participation of trans women in female sports.
    You said 'This is the author' not 'principal contributor and author' when you referred to a paper with SEVEN authors. If you are going around claiming that academic work is dodgy and to be ignored, then you should at least be clear what you are talking about.

    The text itself is signed by a single author.
    All authors are equal and all are in the header. This bit might have escaped you:

    "Contributors BH, FMG and YPP designed the study. Material preparation, reporting and critical revision of the work were performed by BH, PGB, FMG and YPP. Data collection was performed by CC-C, AB, SM-M and BH. BH wrote the first draft of the manuscript, and all authors critically revised subsequent versions until all authors could approve the final manuscript. YPP is the guarantor."
    Then they can all take responsibilty for a badly designed and executed study.

    The transwomen used in the samply are on average older and fatter than the cis women.
    Doesn't change the fact that you completely misread the paper and made unjustifiable accusations as a result.
    I didn't misread the paper. I just omitted the qualifier of 'principal' author. The person in question wrote the draft as you've clarified yourself.
    Someone has to. Doesn't mean much, especially with experimental design, data gathering and analysis beforehand.

    And you were in such a rush to hunt down a single person to blame you managed to confuse a social media designation with a sole author designation, FFS.
    If you were designing a study to compare the athletic performance of different groups of people, would you try to control for age?

    Do you see any problems with this?

    19 cisgender men (CM) (mean±SD, age: 37±9 years)
    12 transgender men (TM) (age: 34±7 years)
    23 transgender women (TW) (age: 34±10 years)
    21 cisgender women (CW) (age: 30±9 years)
    Part 1: if you are checking between the competitors in a sport (edit: without age bands) possibly not. If you want to look at the data more closely, then (edit: delete possibly) yes, and some studies use effects model to see how each factor affects the result. It wouldn't be wrong if you did, but...

    Part 2: ...be careful you don't walk into Simpsons Paradox. Bear in mind that the predicted difference between men and women performance is based on muscle mass/density, and weight is a proxy for that. So if you correct for age and weight the difference between TW and CW may vanish or get worse, and - it would be funny if this happened - the difference between CM and CW may disappear or lessen. So be careful what you wish for... 😀

    Part 3: see also female applicants to Berkeley: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox#UC_Berkeley_gender_bias

    Part 4: I haven't checked any of this and it may be bollocks. No warranty is given or implied. DYOR
    Understanding Simpson's paradox is absolutely essential for any statistical understanding.
    I vaguely remember reading about it when we had those really interesting contributions from the more numerate contributors during the false positive tests in the early months of Covid. Reading about it again suggests that it is another example of the comparative size of the groups distorting the percentages in a confounding fashion.

    I love it when PB sheds light on issues like this.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Israel now on in Eurovision semi-final!

    Being booed?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268
    EPG said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.
    I was using a nominal yield of about 16 Megatons of sarcasm there.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Police have attacked student anti-genocide protests in Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Benno_Ohnesorg (1967)

  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Please, please, please Rishi. Call an election today.

    Then PB might just stop going on about trans issues, at least for a few weeks.

    Preach it, brother*

    If I am banned from mentioning REDACTED then perhaps this subject-ban might usefully be applied elsewhere. BLOODY TRANS, AGAIN

    *or sister, or theyster
    Close call. Your stuff on REDACTED or lots of folk on trans? Maybe PB should vote on which is worse.
    REDACTED is about the only thing Leon writes about that is of both interest and import!
    And I am banned from writing about it. Honestly. The stuff I could tell you but I can’t - it would make your hair curl. Speak to the authorities
    I have not complained to anyone, but as someone who puts other people's money into the space, I tend to think that most of what you write on the subject is pretty abject bollocks.
    As a mostly drunk mostly lurker whose finances are inextricably linked due to our startup having a growing and pioneering AI component, I think it's hilarious personally - especially the bollocks bits - and would personally prefer no ban at all.

    Trans stuff I really don't care cause there's only one obsessive who constantly posts about it and then you just ignore all the responses to her / discussion she's created. And I don't mean Mrs Cyclefree to be clear...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015
    EPG said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.

    Number of people.

    Amount of flour.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
    That is sad. Maybe just get on a train for the hell of it?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
    Shoe-box-tastic.
    All please rise for the demonstration of the Holy Trinity


    I can hear the Napier howl!
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,916

    EPG said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.

    Number of people.

    Amount of flour.
    He might mean 500kg of people
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's possible. But that then means parliament returning after conference season - to do what, exactly? There'll be no legislation to pass and little new policy to introduce so the initiative inevitably passes to the opposition and those wanting to take it to the government.

    And if we do rule out a Christmas election, then something would have to turn up in the next four weeks when it hasn't turned up in two years. What are the chances? Better to seize what's left of the initiative than be dragged to the polls kicking and screaming.

    Waiting for something to turn up over the summer made sense in April. Inflation is easing, real incomes rising for an increasing number and the boats might stop crossing in the numbers of 2023. You can see the straws No 10 is clutching. But in October? No.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    EPG said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.

    Number of people.

    Amount of flour.
    But number has a strong sense of countability.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Good news:

    Excellent news. EHRC recently been restored to its role as regulator of equalities law, which involves advising on rights conflicts. Good to see this childish attempt from Stonewall to get it sanctioned for not prioritising one protected characteristic over all others fail.

    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1788649364014936321

    It never stops, does it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Regarding our recent ‘science’ discussion, I quite like this for ‘context’ (unfair though it is as a general point).

    For context on the state of mathematical literacy in the medical sciences, in 1994 a researcher published a peer reviewed article that re-discovered the trapezoidal rule for integration.

    It was actually first used in the year 50BCE in Babylon* for astronomy.

    https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1788669982802665569


    (* until recently, thought to have originated at Oxford in the 14thC.)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
    Brown falling apart was the best era.
    Great clunking fist and all
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,015

    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿

    Truss defection?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    #classicdom
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    DougSeal said:

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    #classicdom
    Indeed.

    But not to be underestimated. If he finds a suitably charismatic figurehead...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿

    Truss defection?
    New Labour, New Lettuces.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿

    Truss defection?
    Someone defecting out of Labour over Elphicke would be trays amoozont but I expect its just someone said something to someone allegedly blah blah blah
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 457
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    Better is certainly a strong word considering the amount of people screaming at the PB Tory Herd, people screaming from the PB Tory Herd, and several writers banned or "banned" for exterminationism / denialism of exterminations.

    Number of people.

    Amount of flour.
    But number has a strong sense of countability.
    And English evolves.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Technes tracker is 45 21 (plus 1 minus 1) others mainly unchanged btw
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
    Brown falling apart was the best era.
    Great clunking fist and all
    Barr's Gordon-Bru. Made in Scotland from girdles.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Highly educated people are not immune from intellectual wagon-circling when confronted by an inconvenient truth, nor from the same cult-like insularity, coupled with sneering contempt for the outgroup, that can lead a person to stop asking questions entirely lest he dislike the answers.....

    And just last month, a comprehensive review by British pediatrician Hilary Cass said that when it comes to gender-affirming medical care for children — whose efficacy countless people have been smeared as transphobic bigots for questioning — “we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes.”


    https://archive.is/20240509182240/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/09/opinion/kat-rosenfield-experts-henry-cotton/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:

    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Will there be a cake ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,268

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
    Shoe-box-tastic.
    All please rise for the demonstration of the Holy Trinity


    I can hear the Napier howl!
    There is an urban legend that they considered an exhaust recovery turbine *with afterburner* in the style of the Nomad.

    Imagine, in the dark of the evening as the train pulls out of the station… once clear enough of built up areas, the driver advances the throttle, to “Afterburner”.

  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 457
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Personal post.

    Does anyone on this board have any idea how relieved I am not to have to suffer through Ipswich v Norwich in the playoffs this weekend? I am free! I can be, without consequence, a Leeds fan for a week.

    Baggies to go through IMO. Outside chance for Norwich.

    Leeds are a mess. The old farm Derby in the Prem would be fun, and taking points off Norwich next season quite likely.
    Leicester will struggle - their strikers won't enjoy the same freedom against Premiership defences they did against Championship defences but the big problem is the defence and the silly goals conceded by the back four knocking the ball around until they give it away.

    The Premiership strikers will have a field day.
    I expect we will struggle. We are skint and will have a points deduction, but I don't worry about the style of play.The toughest teams this year were the ones that parked the bus against us. The ones that came to attack we did well against. See our FA cups against Bournemouth and Chelsea this season.
    And your 2 league games against Leeds?

    Leeds are not a mess but they do need their 2 main central strikers fit again or they'll lose out in the playoffs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Cummings is more likely to actually be ruthlessly focused on the voters than the examples as he knows how to read polls and focus groups and all that. Suspect it will be socially conservative but economically left.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Highly educated people are not immune from intellectual wagon-circling when confronted by an inconvenient truth, nor from the same cult-like insularity, coupled with sneering contempt for the outgroup, that can lead a person to stop asking questions entirely lest he dislike the answers.....

    And just last month, a comprehensive review by British pediatrician Hilary Cass said that when it comes to gender-affirming medical care for children — whose efficacy countless people have been smeared as transphobic bigots for questioning — “we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes.”


    https://archive.is/20240509182240/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/09/opinion/kat-rosenfield-experts-henry-cotton/

    It doesn't make sense to stake out an absolutist position on either side. It's a complicated issue and involves vulnerable people. The last paragraph has the whiff of a strawman argument about it, though, as I would imagine a lot of people who are accused of being transphobic bigots are going rather further than questioning the efficacy of specific treatments.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Israel now on in Eurovision semi-final!

    Being booed?
    Not at all, was quite well received by the crowd.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Performance even more impressive:

    This video just shows that everyone in the audience was disagreeing with what was happening. Anti booing technology, removing the audience mics JUST for Israel's performance etc. The EBU supports this.

    https://x.com/mika_ljm/status/1788671484610699750
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Cummings is more likely to actually be ruthlessly focused on the voters than the examples as he knows how to read polls and focus groups and all that. Suspect it will be socially conservative but economically left.
    "the voters" lol. Because they all want the same thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Motion for mistrial denied.
    Great thread laying out some if the argument, and the judge’s reasoning starts after this:

    Steinglass says he's happy to make a sealed record of more salacious details that are "highly corroborative," yet not put into the record, so as to "avoid embarrassing the defendant."..
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1788672510533181779
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Highly educated people are not immune from intellectual wagon-circling when confronted by an inconvenient truth, nor from the same cult-like insularity, coupled with sneering contempt for the outgroup, that can lead a person to stop asking questions entirely lest he dislike the answers.....

    And just last month, a comprehensive review by British pediatrician Hilary Cass said that when it comes to gender-affirming medical care for children — whose efficacy countless people have been smeared as transphobic bigots for questioning — “we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes.”


    https://archive.is/20240509182240/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/09/opinion/kat-rosenfield-experts-henry-cotton/

    It doesn't make sense to stake out an absolutist position on either side. It's a complicated issue and involves vulnerable people.
    Definitely a joke in there about not being a binary situation.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Change U.K. still have my vote.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding our recent ‘science’ discussion, I quite like this for ‘context’ (unfair though it is as a general point).

    For context on the state of mathematical literacy in the medical sciences, in 1994 a researcher published a peer reviewed article that re-discovered the trapezoidal rule for integration.

    It was actually first used in the year 50BCE in Babylon* for astronomy.

    https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1788669982802665569


    (* until recently, thought to have originated at Oxford in the 14thC.)

    A friend of mine used a Dean-Stark apparatus during his PhD to make an ester of some sort. Standard organic chemistry fair, you might think.* At his viva the external was fascinated and discussed this at length. My chemist friends all find this hilarious.

    *I know some of you will know this kit…
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿

    Anglea Rayner's sister did her homework?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Quite. For every UKIP or Brexit Party how many just disappear into the aether? And even those two have success being rather more in influence than elections, for the most part.

    ChangeUK had the advantage of actual MPs but there was not a market for what they were vaguely offering, not when actual centrist mainstream parties already existed.

    Just look at the hard graft the Greens have had to put in over a long time, and even now they struggle to break through.

    Bog standard cliches from a political bullshitter like Cummings, whatever individual successes he may have had, won't cut it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Performance even more impressive:

    This video just shows that everyone in the audience was disagreeing with what was happening. Anti booing technology, removing the audience mics JUST for Israel's performance etc. The EBU supports this.

    https://x.com/mika_ljm/status/1788671484610699750

    What absolute fucking morons
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Cummings is more likely to actually be ruthlessly focused on the voters than the examples as he knows how to read polls and focus groups and all that. Suspect it will be socially conservative but economically left.
    “The Voters”. I mean…FFS
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    DM_Andy said:


    From a few hours ago but in case anyone else missed it earlier. Cummings still talking about a new party:


    Jordan Tyldesley
    @PippyBing

    - Cummings says his new StartUp Party will be "completely different from the other parties,” “ruthlessly focused on the voters not on Westminster and the old media" and “friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in private and public sector.”

    https://twitter.com/PippyBing/status/1788555470334042429

    Isn't that the same pitch as all the other would-be new political parties, remember Veritas, Renew, Jury Team, Change UK?
    Cummings is more likely to actually be ruthlessly focused on the voters than the examples as he knows how to read polls and focus groups and all that. Suspect it will be socially conservative but economically left.
    "the voters" lol. Because they all want the same thing.
    They want what I want. How could they otherwise?

    They do have an odd way of showing it sometimes in fairness. I will never forget Caroline Lucas talking about how unpopular the Tories were, days after they had just won a majority. Charitably might be called a slam on FPTP, but even then the point made no sense.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Tres said:

    GB News ramping a big Labour Party story landing at 10.30.
    I bet its a pile of old horse doings, but maybe it will be moderately 🍿

    Anglea Rayner's sister did her homework?
    Stop taking the piss. If you’re not incandescent with rage over a couple of grand that may or may not be owed to HMRC from the sale of a house a decade ago, what will get you to wake up, sheeple?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Carnyx said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Trainsexual
    Diesels being bullied into pulling pretend diesels (allegedly)
    Don't even mention the DfT insistence on diesel and electric* hermaphrodite trains.

    *Not diesels with electric transmission - but two whole locos in one.
    I like the way the Class 73 Electro-diesels still have a useful life on the mainline sixty or so years after they were built. A niche product, but a useful one.
    73213 at Acton Central last month
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acton_Central_stn_in_2024_01.jpg
    Shoe-box-tastic.
    All please rise for the demonstration of the Holy Trinity


    Awww .. reminds me that I still need to fish out and look properly at my late father's manual for the Deltics, albeit those on Ton class minesweepers, that I found when clearing his house a few years back.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Starmer officially announces he will scrap Rwanda and replace it with something else
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Good news:

    Excellent news. EHRC recently been restored to its role as regulator of equalities law, which involves advising on rights conflicts. Good to see this childish attempt from Stonewall to get it sanctioned for not prioritising one protected characteristic over all others fail.

    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1788649364014936321

    What is Stonewall's core mission thesedays? They seem to spread a wide net.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
    Brown falling apart was the best era.
    Great clunking fist and all
    Barr's Gordon-Bru. Made in Scotland from girdles.
    Girders, so the slogan runs. Though the Scots kind of girdles would work just as well. My late mother had two - one for the kippers and one for the drop scones.

    https://oakden.co.uk/product/scottish-irish-girdle-griddle/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Starmer officially announces he will scrap Rwanda and replace it with something else

    Was he genuinely that vague about it? Because that would be hilarious trolling to his critics on this issue.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Carnyx said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
    Brown falling apart was the best era.
    Great clunking fist and all
    Barr's Gordon-Bru. Made in Scotland from girdles.
    Girders, so the slogan runs. Though the Scots kind of girdles would work just as well. My late mother had two - one for the kippers and one for the drop scones.

    https://oakden.co.uk/product/scottish-irish-girdle-griddle/
    WHOOSH

    "Girdles" was the joke! :lol:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Carnyx said:

    I almost miss the days when we all ripped each other's throats apart over Brexit.

    It was better than endless AI and Trans.

    Oddly enough, I totally agree with you.
    I can remember even better times. Farmer Tupac and the SS Homophobes. Plato before the spiral. Swingback. Baxtering Polls.
    It was probably best when Blair was PM.
    Brown falling apart was the best era.
    Great clunking fist and all
    Barr's Gordon-Bru. Made in Scotland from girdles.
    Girders, so the slogan runs. Though the Scots kind of girdles would work just as well. My late mother had two - one for the kippers and one for the drop scones.

    https://oakden.co.uk/product/scottish-irish-girdle-griddle/
    WHOOSH

    "Girdles" was the joke! :lol:
    I did consider that, but no obvious reason to infer feminine underwear. And the point is, it still works just as well, so ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    About ten seconds of googling ...

    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/why-i-will-vote-britain-leave-eu-0
    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/rishi-sunak-urges-minister-seize-brexit-opportunities-british-farmers (haw!)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71yWSujLK_s
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-mp-explains-eu-decision-toughest-of-his-career-1803236 (snf snf)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 9

    Highly educated people are not immune from intellectual wagon-circling when confronted by an inconvenient truth, nor from the same cult-like insularity, coupled with sneering contempt for the outgroup, that can lead a person to stop asking questions entirely lest he dislike the answers.....

    And just last month, a comprehensive review by British pediatrician Hilary Cass said that when it comes to gender-affirming medical care for children — whose efficacy countless people have been smeared as transphobic bigots for questioning — “we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes.”


    https://archive.is/20240509182240/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/09/opinion/kat-rosenfield-experts-henry-cotton/

    It doesn't make sense to stake out an absolutist position on either side. It's a complicated issue and involves vulnerable people. The last paragraph has the whiff of a strawman argument about it, though, as I would imagine a lot of people who are accused of being transphobic bigots are going rather further than questioning the efficacy of specific treatments.
    We’ve seen quite a lot of “sneering contempt for the outgroup”, certainly.
    YMMV as to who constitutes the outgroup.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    Highly educated people are not immune from intellectual wagon-circling when confronted by an inconvenient truth, nor from the same cult-like insularity, coupled with sneering contempt for the outgroup, that can lead a person to stop asking questions entirely lest he dislike the answers.....

    And just last month, a comprehensive review by British pediatrician Hilary Cass said that when it comes to gender-affirming medical care for children — whose efficacy countless people have been smeared as transphobic bigots for questioning — “we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes.”


    https://archive.is/20240509182240/https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/09/opinion/kat-rosenfield-experts-henry-cotton/

    The way in which Jim Hacker leans on the professor to point out the "if anything were to go wrong, in ten years time..." in order to influence the metadioxin report springs to mind. "It would be irresponsible to deny after further research, this might be associated with health risks, etc."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFjr_P_Mp8U

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited May 9

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    My understanding is he is on record as having supported Brexit at the time of the vote, whilst a backbencher. I am happy to be corrected on that point if that is not true.

    But if your argument is he did not put in the legwork to the actual campaign, I don't really see what that signifies. If he supported Brexit he supported it, and was not therefore a remainer traitor. He was also a junior figure at the time so wouldn't have been very prominent, so not sure why he would have made 'significant interventions' to have been noted in any case.

    That doesn't mean Truss was not, in the eyes of members, a better choice on the Brexit side of things come 2022. But unless my understanding of his position is incorrect it was wrong to label him that way - and no, if some remainers did back him that doesn't change that, since as Truss shows being a former remainer does not mean someone still is.
This discussion has been closed.