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More polls like this and a January 2025 election will be nailed on – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox

    What was anticipated?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    About ten seconds of googling ...

    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/why-i-will-vote-britain-leave-eu-0
    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/rishi-sunak-urges-minister-seize-brexit-opportunities-british-farmers (haw!)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71yWSujLK_s
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-mp-explains-eu-decision-toughest-of-his-career-1803236 (snf snf)
    Perhaps you should have spent a bit longer than 10 seconds.

    1. Is his (rather regretful and exculpatory) statement on how he's voting, and 4. is the same thing, published in the Yorkshire Post. 2. and 3. didn't even take place before the vote.

    That's the absolute bare minimum to avoid not answering the question, which would have been bizarre.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox

    What was anticipated?
    Patrick Chrystys ramped a big story dropping at 10,30. No udea whst but it seems to be nada
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    About ten seconds of googling ...

    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/why-i-will-vote-britain-leave-eu-0
    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/rishi-sunak-urges-minister-seize-brexit-opportunities-british-farmers (haw!)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71yWSujLK_s
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-mp-explains-eu-decision-toughest-of-his-career-1803236 (snf snf)
    Perhaps you should have spent a bit longer than 10 seconds.

    1. Is his (rather regretful and exculpatory) statement on how he's voting, and 4. is the same thing, published in the Yorkshire Post. 2. and 3. didn't even take place before the vote.

    That's the absolute bare minimum to avoid not answering the question, which would have been bizarre.
    Quite right on 2 and 3 - mental slip on my part, thanks.

    But he's still responsible, especially given such a narrow margin where a few constituencies made a difference. And saying it twice over is twice as culpable.

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox

    What was anticipated?
    Patrick Chrystys ramped a big story dropping at 10,30. No udea whst but it seems to be nada
    Seems to be this https://www.gbnews.com/politics/keir-starmer-rishi-sunak-rwanda-labour-channel-crossing
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239

    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox

    What was anticipated?
    Patrick Chrystys ramped a big story dropping at 10,30. No udea whst but it seems to be nada
    It's not Horse's Rwanda thing is it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,114
    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    COMMENT: It took John ‘Fresh Start’ Swinney just 50 secs to revert to type at First Minister’s Questions, blaming UK Gov for a wholly devolved issue .. then claiming he was being “clear” with parents about teacher numbers, while doing his utmost not to be

    https://x.com/chrismusson/status/1788684294426083426
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Pro_Rata said:

    Well the 'big story' hasnt appeared as far as i can see.
    Rampy McBollox

    What was anticipated?
    Patrick Chrystys ramped a big story dropping at 10,30. No udea whst but it seems to be nada
    It's not Horse's Rwanda thing is it?
    Probably. Nothing burger. Always a nothing burger.
    I want an Elite Border Force Action Man. Starmtroopers on every beach
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,670

    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.

    They will elitely fail, rather than just regular fail. 10% salary increment. 10% Daily Mail headline++
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 167
    viewcode said:

    EPG said:

    I would happily support a site wide ban on trans + AI.

    But we could just not talk about these things, would that not achieve the same thing?

    How about talking about trAIns?
    Going on a bullet train today, v excited!
    I've just realised that I haven't been on a train once so far this year so far. Must be the first time I've got to May without having been on one since 1990 or so.

    This realisation saddens me.
    Speaking as somebody who commutes over 200 miles each week, mostly by train, whilst sitting next to people who stink of drugs, drunks, inchoate people with random words, rowdy kids, families with eight-year old children travelling at around 11pm, people who want to be hard bastards, people who are hard bastards, potential rapists, football fans, Jordan Petersen fans, more drunks and all possible combinations of the mad, the bad and the sad, I would advise you to fall to your knees and pray to whichever God you align to that you never have to be on one again.
    Plus:
    - sodcasters playing their music out loud (also folk with Apple headphones)
    - people eating smelly food
    - People with feet on seats

    Hell truly is other people on trains
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239

    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.

    Arrivals will be processed personally by Natalie Elphicke.

    Labour already issued a video on how this will work in practice:

    https://youtu.be/BNc5zTYkTaQ?si=IEomqLdiILCuBR_h
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.

    Complete gash. Just a silly soundbite like 'a decade of national renewal'
    He might as well set up the Office Of Supreme Excellence
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    About ten seconds of googling ...

    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/why-i-will-vote-britain-leave-eu-0
    https://www.rishisunak.com/news/rishi-sunak-urges-minister-seize-brexit-opportunities-british-farmers (haw!)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71yWSujLK_s
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-mp-explains-eu-decision-toughest-of-his-career-1803236 (snf snf)
    Perhaps you should have spent a bit longer than 10 seconds.

    1. Is his (rather regretful and exculpatory) statement on how he's voting, and 4. is the same thing, published in the Yorkshire Post. 2. and 3. didn't even take place before the vote.

    That's the absolute bare minimum to avoid not answering the question, which would have been bizarre.
    Quite right on 2 and 3 - mental slip on my part, thanks.

    But he's still responsible, especially given such a narrow margin where a few constituencies made a difference. And saying it twice over is twice as culpable.

    I don't accept your framing of his choice as culpability, as you know - even in its stunted form I think the benefits of being outside the EU have been shown to be significant.

    In common with many, my take on Rishi's Brexitism is that he picked a side as many did (we cannot know his reasons), made a fairly equivocal statement about it, and promptly went to ground.

    Since achieving his Prime Ministerial ambitions, he has given up Britain's ability to invoke the Northern Ireland protocol, paid over billions in EU fines without a murmer, shitcanned the EU reform and revocation bill, abandoned reform of the EUs nutrient regulations that would have enabled 100, 000 houses to be built, done nothing on fishing, and shoved millions at the French in the hope they'll stop some boats.etc. These are just what I can think of at 11pm on a school night.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,662
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Even Liz Truss wasn't mad enough to support Brexit!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Starmer officially announces he will scrap Rwanda and replace it with something else

    A bit like Republicans that would scrap Obamacare with promises to replace it, but actually have zero plans. Starmer is revealing himself to have no attempt whatsoever at reducing illegal immigration. No doubt he will reverse on dependents visas too, reduce the income thresholds and bring back free entry for EU types. Labour are utterly lackeys of a certain demographic that hates the new Sunak limits.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    Performance even more impressive:

    This video just shows that everyone in the audience was disagreeing with what was happening. Anti booing technology, removing the audience mics JUST for Israel's performance etc. The EBU supports this.

    https://x.com/mika_ljm/status/1788671484610699750

    Well, she qualified and I suspect did well in the televote, which the younger and Very Online fans are shocked by. Not really surprised, tbh.

    Some of these kids would have lost their damned minds during the Eurovisions of the 1970s/80s. They seem to think wars are a new thing?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Performance even more impressive:

    This video just shows that everyone in the audience was disagreeing with what was happening. Anti booing technology, removing the audience mics JUST for Israel's performance etc. The EBU supports this.

    https://x.com/mika_ljm/status/1788671484610699750

    Well, she qualified and I suspect did well in the televote, which the younger and Very Online fans are shocked by. Not really surprised, tbh.

    Some of these kids would have lost their damned minds during the Eurovisions of the 1970s/80s. They seem to think wars are a new thing?
    There were plenty of anti-war protests in the 1970s too. They were also in the right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    I’m sure the Border Security Command will go down well . Starmer just needs to make sure they look like Star Wars Storm Troopers !

    He seems to be doubling down on the Elphicke defection with her accompanying him in Dover . The party discontent is bubbling away but when you’re on the side of the party leading in the polls and likely to hold your seats , principles will often take a back seat !

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    edited May 9
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    KAN, the Israeli broadcaster, (and the IBA before it) are members of the European Broadcasting Union who make the Eurovision Song Contest and have been for decades.

    Australia is an associate member, who joined ESC as guests in 2015, but were popular and stayed in (big TV audience down under for the ESC, despite the time difference).
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
    Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,660

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Oddly the weakest currency in Western Europe at the moment seems to be the SEK. It was positively affordable in Stockholm this week, I was shocked. Swedish colleagues telling me how expensive trips to London have become. No idea why. Contrast with the DKK which makes any trip to Denmark a serious remortgaging event.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Amber Rudd's ex-boyfriend is Kwasi Kwarteng, who went on to be Liz Truss's Chancellor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    IIRC, he wrote quite an eloquent article about why he was voting Leave.

    Now I realize that this wasn't high profile. But then again, he wasn't a high profile MP: he was first elected in 2015 just a year before the Brexit referendum, and didn't even get the most minor of government positions (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government) until almost three years after entering parliament.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    TimS said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Oddly the weakest currency in Western Europe at the moment seems to be the SEK. It was positively affordable in Stockholm this week, I was shocked. Swedish colleagues telling me how expensive trips to London have become. No idea why. Contrast with the DKK which makes any trip to Denmark a serious remortgaging event.
    I was in Norway last month and it seemed reasonable in most places. Met a number of Norwegian anglophiles who were bemoaning a weak currency/wage stagnation and that they found it hard to afford the UK holidays they had enjoyed (quite a few used to live here). One loved to visit the Isle of Skye but it was out of reach for them now.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640

    Leon said:

    Please, please, please Rishi. Call an election today.

    Then PB might just stop going on about trans issues, at least for a few weeks.

    Preach it, brother*

    If I am banned from mentioning REDACTED then perhaps this subject-ban might usefully be applied elsewhere. BLOODY TRANS, AGAIN

    *or sister, or theyster
    Close call. Your stuff on REDACTED or lots of folk on trans? Maybe PB should vote on which is worse.
    REDACTED is about the only thing Leon writes about that is of both interest and import!
    But he writes about it from ignorance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    edited May 9
    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    edited May 9
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
    I see that. And before her time as PM, I would have agreed she was a boring careerist time-server. Given her actions whilst PM, I don't think that's a view that can continue to be supported.

    Her long interviews recently have been good, and they offer a compelling picture of events that doesn't bear out your character description.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    Similar to how in parts of England you have nice countryside villages of decent people, not too far away from ex-industrial areas where Al Qaeda videos gotten sold publicly. Still the politics shows that the centre of gravity of Britain is democratic Western values. In Israel it is support for permanent occupation of another Middle Eastern tribe.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,100
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    "urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English"

    I've never met an English-speaking Israeli who didn't appear to also speak Hebrew. Are there really many of them?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,662

    TimS said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Oddly the weakest currency in Western Europe at the moment seems to be the SEK. It was positively affordable in Stockholm this week, I was shocked. Swedish colleagues telling me how expensive trips to London have become. No idea why. Contrast with the DKK which makes any trip to Denmark a serious remortgaging event.
    I was in Norway last month and it seemed reasonable in most places. Met a number of Norwegian anglophiles who were bemoaning a weak currency/wage stagnation and that they found it hard to afford the UK holidays they had enjoyed (quite a few used to live here). One loved to visit the Isle of Skye but it was out of reach for them now.
    Japan is well cheap, once you're here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.
    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1788339715017519482

    Presumably because it was in any event minimal.
  • Well, she qualified and I suspect did well in the televote, which the younger and Very Online fans are shocked by. Not really surprised, tbh.

    The Italian broadcaster, RAI, apparently showed on screen Italy's televote results (in gross violation of the rules, which may get them a kicking from the EBU) and Israel got 39%, everyone else was in single digits. If that result is indicative they'll probably win the contest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
    Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
    The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
    I see that. And before her time as PM, I would have agreed she was a boring careerist time-server. Given her actions whilst PM, I don't think that's a view that can continue to be supported.

    Her long interviews recently have been good, and they offer a compelling picture of events that doesn't bear out your character description.
    The fact she endorsed Trump shows she is a moron without any need for further evidence.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
    Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
    The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
    I have a degree in economics and worked in economics for a decade. What background do you have?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    Well, she qualified and I suspect did well in the televote, which the younger and Very Online fans are shocked by. Not really surprised, tbh.

    The Italian broadcaster, RAI, apparently showed on screen Italy's televote results (in gross violation of the rules, which may get them a kicking from the EBU) and Israel got 39%, everyone else was in single digits. If that result is indicative they'll probably win the contest.
    Yes, just seen that. They finished third last year and the song is OK, so I'm not really that shocked that it would do well. The war will simply not be a factor for some people - Russia continued to do well after the invasion of Crimea until they got expelled in 2022.

    Younger ESC fans are very enmeshed in social media, so cannot understand that everyone isn't as splenetically anti Israel as they are.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
    I see that. And before her time as PM, I would have agreed she was a boring careerist time-server. Given her actions whilst PM, I don't think that's a view that can continue to be supported.

    Her long interviews recently have been good, and they offer a compelling picture of events that doesn't bear out your character description.
    The fact she endorsed Trump shows she is a moron without any need for further evidence.
    Another non-intelligent answer - her endorsement of Trump has got nothing whatsoever to do with your assertion that her very presence at number 10 vs. Rishi was depressing the pound.

    Concerning that issue, nobody is endorsing Trump in isolation - they are endorsing Trump as opposed to Biden - a politician of the American left, who seems to have done little for world stability, and who seems to have a hearty dislike for Britain - to say nothing of showing a lot of worrying health signs. I don't consider judging Trump to be a better choice than Biden to be a moronic choice for a Tory.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    edited May 9
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    "urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English"

    I've never met an English-speaking Israeli who didn't appear to also speak Hebrew. Are there really many of them?
    Very few, I think. There are more who speak Russian and some English, but no Hebrew. There are some non-Hebrew speaking English speakers, but you are more likely to find them among recent settlers than Tel Aviv’s urban elite.

    Likewise, the pork-eaters are really only the Russians.

    But, yes, there is a secular, liberal, urban elite in Tel Aviv with very different views to those in Jerusalem or to the settlers or to Orthodox groups.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    "urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English"

    I've never met an English-speaking Israeli who didn't appear to also speak Hebrew. Are there really many of them?
    They're not so dissimilar to the Anglophone South Africans: yeah, sure they learnt Afrikaans at school. But they'd struggle to converse in it in any meaningful way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097

    Or it means Israel has a really good song and many people aren't particularly politically engaged.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    Similar to how in parts of England you have nice countryside villages of decent people, not too far away from ex-industrial areas where Al Qaeda videos gotten sold publicly. Still the politics shows that the centre of gravity of Britain is democratic Western values. In Israel it is support for permanent occupation of another Middle Eastern tribe.
    While that's a fair point, you could have made the same comment about the Germans in the 1940s. And they returned to sanity. (Albeit it took a while. And a lot of bloodshed.)
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
    I see that. And before her time as PM, I would have agreed she was a boring careerist time-server. Given her actions whilst PM, I don't think that's a view that can continue to be supported.

    Her long interviews recently have been good, and they offer a compelling picture of events that doesn't bear out your character description.
    The fact she endorsed Trump shows she is a moron without any need for further evidence.
    Another non-intelligent answer - her endorsement of Trump has got nothing whatsoever to do with your assertion that her very presence at number 10 vs. Rishi was depressing the pound.

    Concerning that issue, nobody is endorsing Trump in isolation - they are endorsing Trump as opposed to Biden - a politician of the American left, who seems to have done little for world stability, and who seems to have a hearty dislike for Britain - to say nothing of showing a lot of worrying health signs. I don't consider judging Trump to be a better choice than Biden to be a moronic choice for a Tory.
    The fact the pound rapidly recovered after she left office speaks for itself. Containing Putin rather than letting him take territory in Ukraine absolutely is better for world security. And Trump is a huge risk for America remaining a democratic state and its republican institutions. So anyone that believes in Tory values of institutional stability is thick as mince if they endorse him. But Truss probably doesn't even believe in it. She just realises her reputation is trash with everybody except the paranoid right wing fringe so is playing to the gallery.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.
    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1788339715017519482

    Presumably because it was in any event minimal.

    My personal view, is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s unusual but very serious medical condition, as testified to by himself via legal deposition (years ago when divorcing his former wife) may be related to his apparent mental & personality change, which saw him morphing from a successful environmental lawyer and campaigner, into an anti-vaxxer & quasi-Trumper.

    Before the change, RFKjr was a successful environmental lawyer and campaigner, for example helping clean up an extremely-polluted section of the Hudson River. And after . . . what we see today.

  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 167
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
    Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
    The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
    I have a degree in economics and worked in economics for a decade. What background do you have?
    Pwned. As I believe the young people say.

    Agreeing with Will here, but as a strong free marketeer, clearly the markets need to have confidence in HMG, If Count Binface were to be our next PM, I think the markets would react before he had even spoken.

    Truss’s big mistake was to ‘diss’ senior HMT officials, OBR, and the BoE at the same time. The markets reacted accordingly.

    All very predictable. .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,640
    rcs1000 said:

    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097

    Or it means Israel has a really good song and many people aren't particularly politically engaged.
    Israel’s song is distinctly middling.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854
    rcs1000 said:

    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097

    Or it means Israel has a really good song and many people aren't particularly politically engaged.
    Young Eurovision Twitter has convinced itself that Ireland are going to win, the same way they did with Iceland (Hatari) a few years ago, even though the songs were messy and not very listenable. A few of them have already started on the 'Jews have rigged the votes because they control the media' tinfoil hat bollocks, so that will be annoying if Israel win on Saturday night.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    Just seen that 48/18/13 poll. Shockingly bad for the Tories. (Been offline most of the day).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.
    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1788339715017519482

    Presumably because it was in any event minimal.

    You know what will affect RFK's ability to serve as President? Not winning many votes.
    My thought also. HOWEVER, what about scenario, where DJT picks RFKjr as his VP running mate, they end up winning . . . then Trump resigns or otherwise leaves office . . .

    Admittedly, prospect of a 2nd Kennedy Administration would itself be a disincentive against yet another Trump impeachment. Just as thought of President Spiro Agnew was an aide to Richard Nixon . . . until Agnew himself was forced to resign, and was replaced by . . . Gerald Ford . . .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407

    rcs1000 said:

    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097

    Or it means Israel has a really good song and many people aren't particularly politically engaged.
    Young Eurovision Twitter has convinced itself that Ireland are going to win, the same way they did with Iceland (Hatari) a few years ago, even though the songs were messy and not very listenable. A few of them have already started on the 'Jews have rigged the votes because they control the media' tinfoil hat bollocks, so that will be annoying if Israel win on Saturday night.
    Crazy thing is if this song hadn’t existed until now, and She hadn’t existed and we entered it to Eurovision it would win.

    https://youtu.be/-1pMMIe4hb4?si=i6wiJWJgI3GKDduk
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 9
    UNRWA (which as a reminder is the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees) has shut its HQ in East Jerusalem after an arson attack by a group of Israelis, some of them armed, chanted "Burn down the United Nations" before setting the building on fire.

    Meanwhile the Karem Abu Salem crossing in the south (also known as Kerem Shalom) has "officially" been reopened but apparently no actual supplies are coming in through it because of security fears. We can argue about the meaning of the word "open", but this doesn't help people who need those supplies.

  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    Similar to how in parts of England you have nice countryside villages of decent people, not too far away from ex-industrial areas where Al Qaeda videos gotten sold publicly. Still the politics shows that the centre of gravity of Britain is democratic Western values. In Israel it is support for permanent occupation of another Middle Eastern tribe.
    While that's a fair point, you could have made the same comment about the Germans in the 1940s. And they returned to sanity. (Albeit it took a while. And a lot of bloodshed.)
    Germany's insane votes covered a couple of elections and then they didn't have the ability to vote Adi out of office. The Israelis have voted for permanent subjugation of others again and again. Germany's return to sanity took the complete levelling of their country, and enforcement of a new system by occupying powers. That won't happen to Israel. And Germany's restoration was based on an alternative conservative ideology of Christian democracy that embraced the compassionate nature of their underlying religious culture. Israel's religious heritage is based on genocide and supremacism.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    a

    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.
    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1788339715017519482

    Presumably because it was in any event minimal.

    My personal view, is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s unusual but very serious medical condition, as testified to by himself via legal deposition (years ago when divorcing his former wife) may be related to his apparent mental & personality change, which saw him morphing from a successful environmental lawyer and campaigner, into an anti-vaxxer & quasi-Trumper.

    Before the change, RFKjr was a successful environmental lawyer and campaigner, for example helping clean up an extremely-polluted section of the Hudson River. And after . . . what we see today.

    There is such a long list of people through history with something similar. Reforming and dynamic, something goes wrong in late middle age.

    Admiral Tyron, Captain Cook and many others.

    A common suggestion is a mild stroke.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,141
    Israel has a great song but my favourite is Switzerland and Nemo with a mix of opera , rap and pop. Absolutely stunning song . The last two minutes are totally addictive .Shocked that Albania didn’t make it .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,407
    Donkeys said:

    UNRWA (which as a reminder is the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees) has shut its HQ in East Jerusalem after an arson attack by a group of Israelis, some of them armed, chanted "Burn down the United Nations" before setting the building on fire.

    Meanwhile the Karem Abu Salem crossing in the south (also known as Kerem Shalom) has "officially" been reopened but apparently no actual supplies are coming in through it because of security fears. We can argue about the meaning of the word "open", but this doesn't help people who need those supplies.

    You are such a rebellious Old Wok. Time to grow up now though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    rcs1000 said:

    Israel seems to have won a landslide in the Eurovision televote in Italy. It would be interesting to see if that’s replicated in other European countries. Perhaps the silent majority is with Israel.

    https://x.com/escdiscord/status/1788681278142718097

    Or it means Israel has a really good song and many people aren't particularly politically engaged.
    Israel’s song is distinctly middling.
    Anti semite!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,471

    TimS said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Oddly the weakest currency in Western Europe at the moment seems to be the SEK. It was positively affordable in Stockholm this week, I was shocked. Swedish colleagues telling me how expensive trips to London have become. No idea why. Contrast with the DKK which makes any trip to Denmark a serious remortgaging event.
    I was in Norway last month and it seemed reasonable in most places. Met a number of Norwegian anglophiles who were bemoaning a weak currency/wage stagnation and that they found it hard to afford the UK holidays they had enjoyed (quite a few used to live here). One loved to visit the Isle of Skye but it was out of reach for them now.
    Japan is well cheap, once you're here.
    A chain ramen store I was in last week was offering 1100 yen per hour on its recruitment posters - £5.66.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,921
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Take a look at this site: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    If you want to know what happened in the early 1970s, it was the end of the world fixing their currencies to gold through the Bretton Woods Agreement.

    During that period, major crises were almost unknown because - under Bretton Woods - if you ran a trade deficit for long, you ran out of gold.

    Under the current system, if you are big enough, you get to run unlimited deficits, and the world becomes ever more unbalanced. And the crises - when they hit - are absolutely massive.
    You seem to misunderstand how the Bretton Woods system worked and what it did. Countries did not "run out of gold" if they ran trade deficits. Only the US pegged its currency to gold. Other countries pegged their currencies to the US dollar (+/-1%). It was dollars they'd run out of when their pegs were unsustainable.

    (In fact even the gold convertibility of the dollar was already breaking down by 1963, with the creation of the Gold Pool, or by 1968 at the latest).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,100
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    "urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English"

    I've never met an English-speaking Israeli who didn't appear to also speak Hebrew. Are there really many of them?
    They're not so dissimilar to the Anglophone South Africans: yeah, sure they learnt Afrikaans at school. But they'd struggle to converse in it in any meaningful way.
    Seems to be some disagreement between you and Bondegezou on this.

    FWIW Wikipedia has this:

    "The Israeli population is linguistically and culturally diverse. Hebrew is the country's official language, and almost the entire population speaks it either as a first language or proficiently as a second language. Its standard form, known as Modern Hebrew, is the main medium of life in Israel."

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Israel

    I've never been to Tel Aviv, or South Africa, but the impression I have from non-Arab English-speaking Israelis re Hebrew is *very* different to English-speaking South Africans attitude to Afrikaans
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,009
    edited May 9
    O/T Silence Of The Lambs is on ITV1 atm. Such a great movie, maybe the best film of the 1990s.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    Take a look at this site: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    If you want to know what happened in the early 1970s, it was the end of the world fixing their currencies to gold through the Bretton Woods Agreement.

    During that period, major crises were almost unknown because - under Bretton Woods - if you ran a trade deficit for long, you ran out of gold.

    Under the current system, if you are big enough, you get to run unlimited deficits, and the world becomes ever more unbalanced. And the crises - when they hit - are absolutely massive.
    You seem to misunderstand how the Bretton Woods system worked and what it did. Countries did not "run out of gold" if they ran trade deficits. Only the US pegged its currency to gold. Other countries pegged their currencies to the US dollar (+/-1%). It was dollars they'd run out of when their pegs were unsustainable.

    (In fact even the gold convertibility of the dollar was already breaking down by 1963, with the creation of the Gold Pool, or by 1968 at the latest).
    I know fully well how Bretton Woods worked.

    Have you read Business Adventures by John Brooks? If not, it is well worth reading. It's about forty years old, but one of the stories follows the Governor of the Bank of England around during a Sterling crisis, as the Government and Bank of England seek to stabilise the pound.

    The point about Bretton Woods was that - from the start - it was designed to ensure countries' current accounts balanced through the cycle. (In that way, it was almost the opposite of the Eurozone.) It was recognized that if you did that, then crises would be small and frequent and you could avoid massive imbalances coming into being.

    It was the Vietnam War and the US's desire to run big deficits that killed it. And I do wonder if the world would not have been better with it. The US (and UK) would not have been able to end up with such unbalances, consumption led, economies in a Bretton Woods world.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    One might make the same argument about Israel, of course. Most Israelis are either first or second (or at most third) generation emigrees from Europe.
    And they would be wrong. Their culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern and most of their population is not from Europe.
    You'd struggle to find a more schizophrenic place than Israel: on the one hand you have a deeply European/US urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English and happily eat pork. A hundred miles away you have Settler communities where English isn't even spoken and education is almost entirely religious.

    And that's before you even add in the Palestinians.
    "urban elite who live in Tel Aviv only speak English"

    I've never met an English-speaking Israeli who didn't appear to also speak Hebrew. Are there really many of them?
    They're not so dissimilar to the Anglophone South Africans: yeah, sure they learnt Afrikaans at school. But they'd struggle to converse in it in any meaningful way.
    Seems to be some disagreement between you and Bondegezou on this.

    FWIW Wikipedia has this:

    "The Israeli population is linguistically and culturally diverse. Hebrew is the country's official language, and almost the entire population speaks it either as a first language or proficiently as a second language. Its standard form, known as Modern Hebrew, is the main medium of life in Israel."

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Israel

    I've never been to Tel Aviv, or South Africa, but the impression I have from non-Arab English-speaking Israelis re Hebrew is *very* different to English-speaking South Africans attitude to Afrikaans
    I specifically chose Tel Aviv for my example, because it is by far the most Anglophone of the Israeli cities. Jerusalem, for example, is very different.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Sadly I think she's someone who'll say whatever she thinks will gain her temporary advantage.
    Even her fiercest critics here say that she's a loony ideologue, which isn't the profile of the two-faced careerist you describe.
    I am not other people. I am me. I have my own opinions.
    I see that. And before her time as PM, I would have agreed she was a boring careerist time-server. Given her actions whilst PM, I don't think that's a view that can continue to be supported.

    Her long interviews recently have been good, and they offer a compelling picture of events that doesn't bear out your character description.
    The fact she endorsed Trump shows she is a moron without any need for further evidence.
    Another non-intelligent answer - her endorsement of Trump has got nothing whatsoever to do with your assertion that her very presence at number 10 vs. Rishi was depressing the pound.

    Concerning that issue, nobody is endorsing Trump in isolation - they are endorsing Trump as opposed to Biden - a politician of the American left, who seems to have done little for world stability, and who seems to have a hearty dislike for Britain - to say nothing of showing a lot of worrying health signs. I don't consider judging Trump to be a better choice than Biden to be a moronic choice for a Tory.
    The fact the pound rapidly recovered after she left office speaks for itself. Containing Putin rather than letting him take territory in Ukraine absolutely is better for world security. And Trump is a huge risk for America remaining a democratic state and its republican institutions. So anyone that believes in Tory values of institutional stability is thick as mince if they endorse him. But Truss probably doesn't even believe in it. She just realises her reputation is trash with everybody except the paranoid right wing fringe so is playing to the gallery.
    No it does not, and your answer is glib crap designed to mask your complete lack of understanding. I hope to be more impressed in future discussions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,165
    edited May 9
    SteveS said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    I can't see Liz Truss in that picture? Though I'm basing that on everyone managing to hold their signs up the right way.
    Truss was a Remainer.

    image
    Truss is just a moron. Backed Remain, u-turned on it when the wind blew against it, then crashed the pound once PM.
    Currencies find their true value. Decades of currency debasement and trade deficits "trashed the pound". The events surrounding the mini budget and concurrent QT activities by the bank caused temporary speculation which some people made some money off.
    If it was just temporary speculation, the government could have stood behind the currency and would have won. But they couldn't because the currency headed towards its true value under a Truss premiership. When more competent people took over, the currency recovered.
    Interesting - I've often thought of you before as moderately intelligent.
    Intelligent people can recognize the Trussite "stab in the back" myth. Her budget was bonkers. Not just the inherent energy subsidies, but also because she doesn't understand the Thatcher maxim that you need to balance the budget before you can start cutting taxes.
    The 'moron premium' isn't something that intelligent people believe either. It's a lazy left-wing meme for people who want to sound pose as vaguely clever but know shit all about how economies work.
    I have a degree in economics and worked in economics for a decade. What background do you have?
    Pwned. As I believe the young people say.

    Really? I tend to think appeals to authority are the weakest form of arguments - if they can even be classed as such.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    "I Went To China And Drove A Dozen Electric Cars. Western Automakers Are Cooked"

    https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    edited May 9

    "I Went To China And Drove A Dozen Electric Cars. Western Automakers Are Cooked"

    https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/

    There's an awful lot of truth in that article.

    (And if you follow the logic to its conclusion, it means no more petrol powered cars. Simply because electric will be both cheaper and better.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T Silence Of The Lambs is on ITV1 atm. Such a great movie, maybe the best film of the 1990s.

    "Ready when you are, Sgt. Pembry."
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    The Israeli Eurovision entry "Hurricane" was reworked from "October Rain".

    "Holding on in this mysterious ride...
    Take me home
    And leave the world behind...
    I'm still wet from this October rain"

    https://escbeat.com/2024/03/10/israel-from-october-rain-to-hurricane-the-main-lyrics-changes-have-been-revealed/

    That's one heck of a song.

    I haven't yet formed a view on whether's she's referencing Lilith:

    image

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    WillG said:

    Germany's restoration was based on an alternative conservative ideology of Christian democracy that embraced the compassionate nature of their underlying religious culture. Israel's religious heritage is based on genocide and supremacism.

    Erm, wot? Not only is it bizarre to say Judaism is based on supremacism, but also to say that Christianity's culture excludes these, since Christianity not only affirms the Old Testament but expanded on its logic by parallel, most famously in the late Hellenistic world and the Columbian Americas, but also (relevant to this case) old Germanic Saxony.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 10
    EPG said:

    WillG said:

    Germany's restoration was based on an alternative conservative ideology of Christian democracy that embraced the compassionate nature of their underlying religious culture. Israel's religious heritage is based on genocide and supremacism.

    Erm, wot? Not only is it bizarre to say Judaism is based on supremacism, but also to say that Christianity's culture excludes these, since Christianity not only affirms the Old Testament but expanded on its logic by parallel, most famously in the late Hellenistic world and the Columbian Americas, but also (relevant to this case) old Germanic Saxony.
    Yep - Christians too reckon that God egged Joshua on to commit holy genocide in Jericho.
    There's no point beating about the hallucinated bush. That's a seriously unpleasant belief.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    "UN emergency relief coordinator Martin Griffiths has said that the Israeli military has not allowed anything or anyone to go in or get out of Gaza since its takeover of the Rafah crossing on Tuesday.

    “The closure of the crossings means no fuel. It means no trucks, no generators, no water, no electricity and no movement of people or goods. It means no aid,” he said.
    "

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/10/israels-war-on-gaza-live-aid-operation-completely-crippled-amid-attacks

    Keir Starmer must be jumping for joy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited May 10
    nico679 said:

    Israel has a great song but my favourite is Switzerland and Nemo with a mix of opera , rap and pop. Absolutely stunning song . The last two minutes are totally addictive .Shocked that Albania didn’t make it .

    Israel is second favourite in the betting, after being available at 66/1 before last night's semi-final. I've never watched Eurovision so offer no advice on its merits.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,650
    edited May 10
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T Silence Of The Lambs is on ITV1 atm. Such a great movie, maybe the best film of the 1990s.

    "Manhunter" is the best adaptation of one of the Lecter books. As for the best film of the 1990s, you've got Saving Private Ryan, Unforgiven, Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, The Matrix, Schindler's List, Truman Show...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030

    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.

    They will do nothing.

    But do it BETTER
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T Silence Of The Lambs is on ITV1 atm. Such a great movie, maybe the best film of the 1990s.

    "Manhunter" is the best adaptation of one of the Lecter books. As for the best film of the 1990s, you've got Saving Private Ryan, Unforgiven, Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, The Matrix, Schindler's List, Truman Show...
    Clueless; LA Confidertial; Trainspotting; The Big Lebowski; Toy Story; Groundhog Day; Fargo ...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”

    Can you be clearer about what you mean?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    17s might be just about value but I really don't see a Jan election, pissing off media, public and activists alike.

    There comes a point when prolonging the agony just feeds into the narrative and makes things worse still. I don't see polling day going any later than Dec 12.

    (And I still think Nov 14 is most likely, with a mid-Oct date next)

    I agree with you but say come early October when Sunak has to call a November election and the Tories are circa 20-25 points behind in the polls you think he might delay in the hope something does come up?
    It's the price of missing the reltively painless option of May.

    As many on here suggested, it was only ever likely to get worse after that, and that is what we seeing now.
    My previous view of Sunak was that he would probably have made a reasonable PM in 'good' times. Instead, he inherited a party that had been in power too long, had run out of ideas, and preferred attacking itself rather than the opposition.

    I'm part way through changing that view. Everything after the 'instead...' about his party remains valid. But I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that he would not have made a reasonable PM even if he had had a unified, fresh party. Worse, I don't even think he's trying. It's like he's phoning it in.

    TLDR; Sunak's hopeless.
    For a long while I was a bit of a Sunak fan, but like you JJ, I've had to revise my views on the downside.

    He's not very good, although better than the two before him.
    ... And, quite possibly, better than his successor.

    The central mystery remains. Is he doing this stuff out of fear of the right, or because he is one of them and believes this stuff?

    Neither excuses the incompetence at people management.
    Sunak is genuinely right wing. He basically believes the same stuff as Truss without the delusion. For some reason people got into their heads he was a centrist technocrat.

    When you believe government is there to make the rich richer, squillionaires like yourself, and you don't even pretend any interest in how the other 99% live, you will struggle politically.
    I'm not sure if Sunak lacks delusions, but he was more cautious, understandably so when she lacked any whatsoever.

    I will not get over how he was called a remainer traitor in the leadership contest by some Tories. He's a hard right wing Brexiter, albeit with a smoother technocratic presentation.
    Can you find any significant interventions that Rishi Sunak made on behalf of the Brexit campaign that he avowedly supported? I wasn't aware of any.

    I don't spot him here from a quick scan, though perhaps he's concealed behind John Wittingdale's left buttock.

    IIRC, he wrote quite an eloquent article about why he was voting Leave.

    Now I realize that this wasn't high profile. But then again, he wasn't a high profile MP: he was first elected in 2015 just a year before the Brexit referendum, and didn't even get the most minor of government positions (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government) until almost three years after entering parliament.
    Like Truss, he got preferment under Johnson because Johnson didn’t see him as a threat. Johnson surrounded himself with numpties, and when he came crashing down the numpties were all in pole position to take over.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,030
    Nigelb said:

    RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.
    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1788339715017519482

    Presumably because it was in any event minimal.

    Presumably because the worm is dead and therefore won’t affect anything?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”

    Can you be clearer about what you mean?
    I think he means that Jews can't be proper Europeans.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T Silence Of The Lambs is on ITV1 atm. Such a great movie, maybe the best film of the 1990s.

    "Manhunter" is the best adaptation of one of the Lecter books. As for the best film of the 1990s, you've got Saving Private Ryan, Unforgiven, Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, The Matrix, Schindler's List, Truman Show...
    Saving Private Ryan wasn't even the best movie released in July 1998, let alone of the best movies of the 1990s.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    Ooh, an elite border force…
    Not sure how that will do any better than the current lot. They won’t tow back, sink boats etc.

    They will do nothing.

    But do it BETTER
    Masterful inaction.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    Going through to Eurovision Final:

    Latvia
    Austria
    Netherlands
    Norway
    Israel
    Greece
    Estonia
    Switzerland
    Georgia
    Armenia

    I don't know why Israel are included. They are a Middle Eastern country with a Middle Eastern culture that doesn't respect Western democratic values.
    Australia also competes.

    I think a country joins the Eurovision Song Contest by asking to be in the contest. If you bring viewers (and therefore advertising revenue), you're in.
    Australia at least is an offshoot of European civilization, speaking a European language and with Western values.
    So, just to make sure I understand, a democracy which was populated in the last 60-70 years largely by people whose ancestors had spent hundreds of years living in Europe isnt “an offshoot of European civilisation”

    Can you be clearer about what you mean?
    I think he means that Jews can't be proper Europeans.
    That's nonsense. Of course Jews can be proper Europeans. There are vast numbers of them who have integrated into democratic Western society, and are valuable members of society. In post-war Germany, Jews were instrumental in restoring a rechtstaat.

    But that isn't Israel. Most Israelis do not come from Europe. Their religious culture is Middle Eastern, their language is Middle Eastern, their way of thinking about their neighbors is Middle Eastern. Isn't that what Zionism is about?
This discussion has been closed.