@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
ELPHICKE
That looks like a move directly from Reform to Labour . Personally I don’t buy this 30 point lead , especially after the JL partners poll which only had a 15 point lead .
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
Perhaps there should be a judge-led inquiry into what the word expert means. Someone who is experienced in a field, someone who has made major advances in a field, perhaps, or anyone with letters after their name who happens to agree with me. That is now what they are arguing about.
What an utterly ridiculous thing to write.
An expert is a person with credentials in the field, combined with relevant experience and completely agreeing with whatever I happen to believe this morning.
This is how the justice system is gamed in many countries. You don’t nobble the judge. You pick a judge for the case who has the views that you want.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
And yet management consultancies are full of such creatures.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.
Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.
On the subject of things can changing quickly: we went to a talk last night on the Maya civilisation. 2000+ years of existence and it largely collapsed in 100 years between 800AD and 900AD apparently.
(Remarkably they had no metal tools and did not use the wheel, yet built 1000s of stone buildings some over 70m high.)
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
Explain, then, the existence of the recruitment industry.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
That would imply that they are fixing their polls, which is quite a serious allegation that I'm sure you didn't intend.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
No, not YouGov or Godwin.
*The electorate* desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario. Your party utterly disgusts and appalls them. They want you not just gone, but *gone*
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Nothing like a partisan takedown of a scientist by a person who knows fuck all about the subject. Haven’t seen the like on here since the middle of Covid.
Cass did not say that healthcare should be denied to trans children as you allege. Where is this “growing consensus”? You are simply spouting talking points from politicians that agree with you. Your ad hominem smears of Cass are utterly repugnant.
Apologies if you are a paediatrician in disguise but nothing you’ve posted on this topic accords with what is actually in the report. You just slag it off because it doesn’t fit your ideological viewpoint. Neoliberalism and Foucault have a lot to answer for.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
No, not YouGov or Godwin.
*The electorate* desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario. Your party utterly disgusts and appalls them. They want you not just gone, but *gone*
Sorry, but thems the breaks.
The electorate, based on the recent local and Mayoral elections wants the current government out and replaced by Labour.
They seem to want a serious defeat for the Tories, but not a Canada style wipeout.
Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll 48 18 Yeah yeah
What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?
As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.
A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.
The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.
In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
I'd have thought that the local elections are much harder to poll (and to extrapolate from) than by-elections. They are fundamentally different to national politics - local issues, lots of independents, not all the councils are up for election (most notably Scotland) and so on.
It would be weirder and much more interesting if the national polls matched the local election results, tbh.
The situation is so serious that pharmacists increasingly have to issue “owings” to patients – telling someone that only part of their prescription can be dispensed and asking them to come back for the rest of it later, once the pharmacist has sourced the remainder.
Hundreds of different drugs have become hard or impossible to obtain, according to Community Pharmacy England (CPE), which published the report...
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
YouGov don’t “want” anything. They’re a polling company and if they get things wrong then they won’t be trusted. You’re as bad as the Corbynite nutters who don’t trust them because they were “founded by a Tory”.
If anyone wants a 1993 result for the Tories it’s a very very large proportion of the British public.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
The situation is so serious that pharmacists increasingly have to issue “owings” to patients – telling someone that only part of their prescription can be dispensed and asking them to come back for the rest of it later, once the pharmacist has sourced the remainder.
Hundreds of different drugs have become hard or impossible to obtain, according to Community Pharmacy England (CPE), which published the report...
This isn't just the UK, of course. But it does present us (and Europe) with a choice of either paying more for our widely prescribed drugs, or developing the capacity to produce them domestically.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
I sincerely hope you are wrong! Best advice for her would be to keep her head down and find herself a job for the end of January. She can then vanish into obscurity.
And a much better morning, weather-wise. Our blue-tit chicks are very active and both parents very busy. This dad seems much more hands- (or beak-on) than his predecessors.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too, and before long whether their place and secure parking is inclusive or not.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
For hotels I find that taking the cycle to the room is usually fine - after all a cycle tyre has less contact area than the sole of a shoe.
The Cyclists Touring Club started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these emblems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Nothing like a partisan takedown of a scientist by a person who knows fuck all about the subject. Haven’t seen the like on here since the middle of Covid.
Cass did not say that healthcare should be denied to trans children as you allege. Where is this “growing consensus”? You are simply spouting talking points from politicians that agree with you. Your ad hominem smears of Cass are utterly repugnant.
Apologies if you are a paediatrician in disguise but nothing you’ve posted on this topic accords with what is actually in the report. You just slag it off because it doesn’t fit your ideological viewpoint. Neoliberalism and Foucault have a lot to answer for.
I am not a scientist (I'm a statistician). Dr Cass is not a scientist (she's a medic). @DougSeal, @148grss, @Nigelb, @CarlottaVance, @Malmesbury, @DecrepiterJohnL and any others, would you like me to read thru it for you and do some kind of overview. Like this post if you do and I'll do it backstage.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
I suspect that some of these Reform types spend more of their time online?
What Farage does is the unknown factor, of course.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
Go on - in what sense was Silloth 'rather bizarre'? I like to think I know all of the oddest places in the north of England but I confess I've never been to Silloth. (All I really know about it is that it has a neighbouring settlement with the singularly unappealing name of Skinburnness.)
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
I’ve noticed a number of places abroad are sprouting bike hire setups - bikes delivered/collected from the place you are staying etc.
On bikewankers - there is a similarity between cyclists who claim they can’t ride at less than 20mph (and stop for anything) and motorists who claim the same. Have the two species been verified, or are they actually the same?
Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.
Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.
On the subject of things can changing quickly: we went to a talk last night on the Maya civilisation. 2000+ years of existence and it largely collapsed in 100 years between 800AD and 900AD apparently.
(Remarkably they had no metal tools and did not use the wheel, yet built 1000s of stone buildings some over 70m high.)
The wheels didn’t come off then?
There's a terrible pun involving axle-otls asking to be used but I'm resisting.
How does Ms Elphicke square her defection to Labour with her support for Liz Truss? Surely if there's one entity that is ideologically configured to hinder and harm the glorious Truss reforms at every turn the Labour Party is it. Perhaps Ms Elphicke intends to reform Labour, and make it less Truss-hostile, from within.
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
I suspect that some of these Reform types spend more of their time online?
What Farage does is the unknown factor, of course.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
Bicycle tours were some of my favourite holidays in my younger days. The missus and I spent most of our holidays touring around various parts of Europe, carrying everything we needed on the bikes. We'd typically cycle for about 80km, then look for somewhere to pitch tent in good weather, or find a room if the weather was poor. Then we'd head out and eat large platefuls of the local cuisine to replenish the calories expended during the day.
For me, bicycle touring combines the best of walking and driving: you have the satisfaction of travelling under your own power, but you can also achieve substantial distances. You also get fitter, and you really appreciate the food!
Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll 48 18 Yeah yeah
Gut feeling is that this is an outlier, further exaggerating YouGov's house effects.
*However*, it's not all that inconsistent with the Blackpool South result, so we shouldn't get too excited about it being a long way from the local's NEV projection. Local elections do consistently produce different voting patterns from generals, even on the same day, never mind when the turnout is only half to two-thirds that of a general: LDs and smaller parties do better; the leading main party does worse. And the locals were still terrible for the Tories.
It's maybe worth noting that there was *no* opinion poll in 1997 before the election which gave Blair's Labour a lead this big; the largest was a Lab+28 in mid-March - and there were enough polls then that simple random sampling error would have produced the odd pro-Lab outlier too.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Do you know what peer review means? It does not mean a paper with lots of research. Peer review means that the paper has been reviewed by several other professionals (that's where the peer in peer review comes from) in the field to confirm that it's of high quality prior to publication. the Cass report is not a paper in that sense and did not undergo peer review. That doesn't mean the report is worthless, it's a category error to suggest it needed peer review, but it's also a category error to suggest it's as robust as a clinical trial.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
I’ve noticed a number of places abroad are sprouting bike hire setups - bikes delivered/collected from the place you are staying etc.
On bikewankers - there is a similarity between cyclists who claim they can’t ride at less than 20mph (and stop for anything) and motorists who claim the same. Have the two species been verified, or are they actually the same?
Well, given most cyclists hold driving licenses...
Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.
Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.
On the subject of things can changing quickly: we went to a talk last night on the Maya civilisation. 2000+ years of existence and it largely collapsed in 100 years between 800AD and 900AD apparently.
(Remarkably they had no metal tools and did not use the wheel, yet built 1000s of stone buildings some over 70m high.)
The wheels didn’t come off then?
There's a terrible pun involving axle-otls asking to be used but I'm resisting.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Do you know what peer review means? It does not mean a paper with lots of research. Peer review means that the paper has been reviewed by several other professionals (that's where the peer in peer review comes from) in the field to confirm that it's of high quality prior to publication. the Cass report is not a paper in that sense and did not undergo peer review. That doesn't mean the report is worthless, it's a category error to suggest it needed peer review, but it's also a category error to suggest it's as robust as a clinical trial.
Yes, it might be a grave insult to say it's as robust as a clinical trial (N=6, 2010-21).
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
Go on - in what sense was Silloth 'rather bizarre'? I like to think I know all of the oddest places in the north of England but I confess I've never been to Silloth. (All I really know about it is that it has a neighbouring settlement with the singularly unappealing name of Skinburnness.)
I'm not sure really. I arrived on a sultry, misty evening after a long day cycling.
The streets were exceptionally wide and setted, the buildings rather old and tired. A seaside vibe but not Whitby or Blackpool. Almost Latin American.
Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll 48 18 Yeah yeah
Gut feeling is that this is an outlier, further exaggerating YouGov's house effects.
*However*, it's not all that inconsistent with the Blackpool South result, so we shouldn't get too excited about it being a long way from the local's NEV projection. Local elections do consistently produce different voting patterns from generals, even on the same day, never mind when the turnout is only half to two-thirds that of a general: LDs and smaller parties do better; the leading main party does worse. And the locals were still terrible for the Tories.
It's maybe worth noting that there was *no* opinion poll in 1997 before the election which gave Blair's Labour a lead this big; the largest was a Lab+28 in mid-March - and there were enough polls then that simple random sampling error would have produced the odd pro-Lab outlier too.
Harris and ORB recorded 31 and 30% leads in March 1997 as it goes but point taken. Perhaps more apposite given turnout indications would be 2001, and again Gallup did find a 30% lead in the head in
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Nothing like a partisan takedown of a scientist by a person who knows fuck all about the subject. Haven’t seen the like on here since the middle of Covid.
Cass did not say that healthcare should be denied to trans children as you allege. Where is this “growing consensus”? You are simply spouting talking points from politicians that agree with you. Your ad hominem smears of Cass are utterly repugnant.
Apologies if you are a paediatrician in disguise but nothing you’ve posted on this topic accords with what is actually in the report. You just slag it off because it doesn’t fit your ideological viewpoint. Neoliberalism and Foucault have a lot to answer for.
I am not a scientist (I'm a statistician). Dr Cass is not a scientist (she's a medic). @DougSeal, @148grss, @Nigelb, @CarlottaVance, @Malmesbury, @DecrepiterJohnL and any others, would you like me to read thru it for you and do some kind of overview. Like this post if you do and I'll do it backstage.
A viewcode take on it would be interesting. Note that a great deal of the report is narrative rather than statistics.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
Yes. And you get quite a shock when you go to "Youth Hostels" in other parts of the world and realise what they used to be like - massive dorms, basic facilities (outside showers etc), raucous drinking.
It's a shame that so few smaller remote ones remain, like Allt Beidhe.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Do you know what peer review means? It does not mean a paper with lots of research. Peer review means that the paper has been reviewed by several other professionals (that's where the peer in peer review comes from) in the field to confirm that it's of high quality prior to publication. the Cass report is not a paper in that sense and did not undergo peer review. That doesn't mean the report is worthless, it's a category error to suggest it needed peer review, but it's also a category error to suggest it's as robust as a clinical trial.
Yes, I absolutely know what peer review means - I have 70 odd peer reviewed papers and have been a peer reviewer too. My point is that some seem to think to accord it greater significance than it actually deserves. Saying something is not scientific because it hasn't been peer reviewed is nonsense. @148grss's claim its not a scientific document because it didn't go through peer review is utter bollocks.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
Which has some interest in staying relevant under a new government, presumably ?
How can someone be a chief executive and an MP? Surely a CEO is a full-time job.
Ask the people who set it up, and those who fund it. ...The Housing and Finance Institute (HFI) is an industry group whose stated aim is "to boost the capacity and delivery of housing".[1] The institute is privately funded and works with the private and public sector to build more homes in the United Kingdom. It was set up by the Cameron–Clegg coalition following a review by Natalie Elphicke and Keith House...
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because its not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
That’s where you are simply wrong.
You have scientific papers.
And you have peer reviewed scientific papers.
The latter is a specific category as part of being accepted for publication in a journal
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because its not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable. You can do an experiment on your own, you can write up the results on your own, but I would say that a significant part of the scientific method is scrutiny where any experiment, conclusion or data set is examined by peers in the field and is agreed to meet the standards of what we currently understand to be good practice. That can still include coming to answers outside the understood norm - because the peer review can say "yes, this methodology is still acceptable, the data set looks sensible, and even if the conclusion is not in keeping with our current model of this topic - we can use it in the future to inform our understanding and it will perhaps lead to the model changing if we continue to find similar results in similar experiments / scenarios".
Neom: Saudi forces 'told to kill’ to clear land for eco-city
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68945445 Saudi authorities have permitted the use of lethal force to clear land for a futuristic desert city being built by dozens of Western companies, an ex-intelligence officer has told the BBC. Col Rabih Alenezi says he was ordered to evict villagers from a tribe in the Gulf state to make way for The Line, part of the Neom eco-project. One of them was subsequently shot and killed for protesting against eviction. The Saudi government and Neom management refused to comment...
..Displaced villagers were extremely reluctant to comment, fearing that speaking to foreign media could further endanger their detained relatives. But we spoke to those evicted elsewhere for another Saudi Vision 2030 scheme. More than a million people have been displaced for the Jeddah Central project in the western Saudi Arabian city - set to include an opera house, sporting district, and high-end retail and residential units. Nader Hijazi [not his real name] grew up in Aziziyah - one of approximately 63 neighbourhoods affected by those demolitions. His father's home was razed in 2021, for which he received less than a month's warning. Hijazi says the photos he had seen of his former neighbourhood were shocking, saying they evoked a warzone..
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
Is that really a new trend? Seems like just a silly name for something that was always done.
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring although I haven't been able to since Covid. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to see the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Nothing like a partisan takedown of a scientist by a person who knows fuck all about the subject. Haven’t seen the like on here since the middle of Covid.
Cass did not say that healthcare should be denied to trans children as you allege. Where is this “growing consensus”? You are simply spouting talking points from politicians that agree with you. Your ad hominem smears of Cass are utterly repugnant.
Apologies if you are a paediatrician in disguise but nothing you’ve posted on this topic accords with what is actually in the report. You just slag it off because it doesn’t fit your ideological viewpoint. Neoliberalism and Foucault have a lot to answer for.
I am not a scientist (I'm a statistician). Dr Cass is not a scientist (she's a medic). @DougSeal, @148grss, @Nigelb, @CarlottaVance, @Malmesbury, @DecrepiterJohnL and any others, would you like me to read thru it for you and do some kind of overview. Like this post if you do and I'll do it backstage.
A viewcode take on it would be interesting. Note that a great deal of the report is narrative rather than statistics.
Part 1 will be a syntactic analysis. A syntactic analysis enables a narrative document to be analysed statistically. The advantage of this approach is that it can be used without subject knowledge. The disadvantage is that it misses the subtleties. That will have to wait for the putative part 2: the semantic analysis.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because its not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable. You can do an experiment on your own, you can write up the results on your own, but I would say that a significant part of the scientific method is scrutiny where any experiment, conclusion or data set is examined by peers in the field and is agreed to meet the standards of what we currently understand to be good practice. That can still include coming to answers outside the understood norm - because the peer review can say "yes, this methodology is still acceptable, the data set looks sensible, and even if the conclusion is not in keeping with our current model of this topic - we can use it in the future to inform our understanding and it will perhaps lead to the model changing if we continue to find similar results in similar experiments / scenarios".
None of that means that the Cass report is not a scientific document. I have worked at a Uni all my adult life and scientific research is my life. My career and vocation. I could have earned far more money elsewhere but I love what I do. To see bollocks like you are posting on here, reminiscent of the worst of the covid dramas. The Cass report was never intended to be a peer reviewed study. It is looking at reams of other peer reviewed study and providing a narrative. Its is a scientific report.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
Is that really a new trend? Seems like just a silly name for something that was always done.
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring but haven't been able to recently. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to tour the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
There is some debate over it.
Bikepacking = offroad, no pannier racks, stripped back, big tyres or even a mountain bike, shorter trips Touring = the inverse
I defy anybody to have a worse book on the next GE than me. Piled into the Tories at 2.4-3.5 pre partygate, laid off at 4.5 when Boris quit. Backed Labour Majority but got out of it and now I lose £600 Lab Maj and am flat on every other outcome.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because its not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable. You can do an experiment on your own, you can write up the results on your own, but I would say that a significant part of the scientific method is scrutiny where any experiment, conclusion or data set is examined by peers in the field and is agreed to meet the standards of what we currently understand to be good practice. That can still include coming to answers outside the understood norm - because the peer review can say "yes, this methodology is still acceptable, the data set looks sensible, and even if the conclusion is not in keeping with our current model of this topic - we can use it in the future to inform our understanding and it will perhaps lead to the model changing if we continue to find similar results in similar experiments / scenarios".
None of that means that the Cass report is not a scientific document. I have worked at a Uni all my adult life and scientific research is my life. My career and vocation. I could have earned far more money elsewhere but I love what I do. To see bollocks like you are posting on here, reminiscent of the worst of the covid dramas. The Cass report was never intended to be a peer reviewed study. It is looking at reams of other peer reviewed study and providing a narrative. Its is a scientific report.
I guess the Cass Report is analogous to the IPCC reports on climate change: the reports aren't themselves peer reviewed, but they are based on peer reviewed (and other) sources and represent our best attempt to summarise our current knowledge of the issue.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because it's not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable...
Peer review prior to publication is something required by convention, rather than something required by 'the scientific method' itself.
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
Watching this race, it came to me that you could remake every Competitive Dad sketch from The Fast Show with a trans ‘woman’ as the Dad, and an actual woman as the kids, and it would work perfectly
🚨BREAKING🚨
A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.
Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
Is that really a new trend? Seems like just a silly name for something that was always done.
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring but haven't been able to recently. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to tour the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
There is some debate over it.
Bikepacking = offroad, no pannier racks, stripped back, big tyres or even a mountain bike, shorter trips Touring = the inverse
OK, fair enough - so frame bags rather than panniers.
I've done off-roading on a old style touring bike (South Downs) and on-roading on a mountain bike with pannier racks (Hebrides) so I've no idea what those would be called.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
Is that really a new trend? Seems like just a silly name for something that was always done.
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring although I haven't been able to since Covid. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to see the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
Bike packing is lighter footprint, and facilitated by new products / technology and types of cycle, compared to traditional cycle touring. Typically rather than 2 or 4 panniers it will be a handlebar roll bag on the front, and a stuff sack on the back - often without even a pannier rack.
And quite a lot of middle aged people and older do it. This trend will be helped by EAPCs becoming available with 50-80 miles assist ranges.
Susanna Thornton, who I linked to previously, is in her late 50s and does things like trips to Sweden from the UK, and multi-day trips here.
One real problem in the UK is taking trains to get to a starting point; Network Rail and many rail companies are diabolical.
Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face
This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
When we stayed in the rather bizarre settlement of Silloth in Cumbria on Hadrian's Cycleway, the guesthouse advertised that they had secure cycle storage, bike mechanic kit, and would welcome anyone doing the trail. As a result, the place was packed out with a bunch of ravenous cyclists desperate for food and beer.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
These days it is likely to need charging for EAPCs, too.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
The Cyclists Touring Club (now CyclingUK) started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these embems to be displayed which are still there in some places: https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
In my long-ago cycle touring days I used Youth Hostels. Is there still a decent network?
They were badly hit by foot and mouth.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
A huge recent trend say since 2005 is called Bike Packing (compare backpacking), which can be B&B -> B&B etc, or incorporate camping or wild camping. You may enjoy Susanna Thornton video-accounts; she does long distance bike packing on a Brompton folder.
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
Is that really a new trend? Seems like just a silly name for something that was always done.
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring but haven't been able to recently. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to tour the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
There is some debate over it.
Bikepacking = offroad, no pannier racks, stripped back, big tyres or even a mountain bike, shorter trips Touring = the inverse
OK, fair enough - so frame bags rather than panniers.
I've done off-roading on a old style touring bike (South Downs) and on-roading on a mountain bike with pannier racks (Hebrides) so I've no idea what those would be called.
Having fun on a bike, I suppose!
It's a way to make lots of money for companies like Ortlieb, tbh. Some of the prices for cycling kit is insane.
I tried cycling down a dune on Coll on my road bike with predictable results
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because its not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable. You can do an experiment on your own, you can write up the results on your own, but I would say that a significant part of the scientific method is scrutiny where any experiment, conclusion or data set is examined by peers in the field and is agreed to meet the standards of what we currently understand to be good practice. That can still include coming to answers outside the understood norm - because the peer review can say "yes, this methodology is still acceptable, the data set looks sensible, and even if the conclusion is not in keeping with our current model of this topic - we can use it in the future to inform our understanding and it will perhaps lead to the model changing if we continue to find similar results in similar experiments / scenarios".
None of that means that the Cass report is not a scientific document. I have worked at a Uni all my adult life and scientific research is my life. My career and vocation. I could have earned far more money elsewhere but I love what I do. To see bollocks like you are posting on here, reminiscent of the worst of the covid dramas. The Cass report was never intended to be a peer reviewed study. It is looking at reams of other peer reviewed study and providing a narrative. Its is a scientific report.
I'm not saying it was intended to be a peer reviewed study. It did look at lots of peer reviewed studies, and also ignored or downgraded the significance of many others. The methodological choice to do so, in my mind, is very shaky.
Take the score for the De Vries 2014 study, which misses the Cass cut off point for not being considered "low quality" because it used unvalidated metric scales to measure wellbeing, alongside multiple validated metric scales for other criteria - despite the fact that Cass has stated that trying to measure wellbeing is important and not enough studies do that! So the study was downgraded for trying a, at the time, new scale for measuring wellbeing along with many other verified scales. That gave the whole report a half a point deduction using their methodology and therefore not being given weight in the overall narrative conclusions of the paper. Things like this keep popping up - arbitrary and arguably unscientific reasons to dismiss papers and studies that suggest that transitioning is not an issue, and inclusion of and citations to people like Ken Zucker despite the fact more recent research contradicts Zucker's claims (and the Cass report even cites some of that research such as Steensma's 2013 work, claiming that it backs Zucker's work when it in fact comes to the opposite conclusion). These are the things one would expect to be questioned during peer review.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because it's not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable...
Peer review prior to publication is something required by convention, rather than something required by 'the scientific method' itself.
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
Not being a scientific paper isn't the issue - @148grss claims it isn't scientific, which is utter drivel. But from a social studies lecturer (I believe?) what should we expect?
I defy anybody to have a worse book on the next GE than me. Piled into the Tories at 2.4-3.5 pre partygate, laid off at 4.5 when Boris quit. Backed Labour Majority but got out of it and now I lose £600 Lab Maj and am flat on every other outcome.
The prism through which we view betting odds never fails to fascinate me - it seems that there needs to be some kind of black swan event in order for Labour to not win a majority at the next election, and we’d be saying it was one of the greatest collapses and polling disasters of all time. But if a 13/2f won the Grand National people might say it was an uncompetitive procession despite both outcomes being the same price
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because it's not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable...
Peer review prior to publication is something required by convention, rather than something required by 'the scientific method' itself.
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
Agree. I've written plenty of reports for funders (often made public) that are not peer reviewed. Many of them get more exposure than the papers - I've had the reports picked up by BBC/ITV etc but not the papers (I normally will package the same research up in a peer reviewed paper too, with a slightly different angle/more analysis).
The Cass review is a report. Whether it's called scientific is largely semantics.* It summarises the evidence** and then, due to the lack of evidence, goes further into recommendations based on the authors' best guesses/feelings about the right way forwards. The reviews that were carried out and the primary qualitative research and upcoming secondary healthcare data analysis follow the scientific method and are cautious about concluding anything where the evidence is not there. The report does (and should - no one would have been impressed if Cass had simply said "we don't know, more research is needed) go beyond what has a sound basis in scientific evidence.
* Take my reports mentioned above - they report on science, but I'm not sure I'd call all of them scientific reports - some were a bit too broad brush and narrative for that, I think. I also think it's not that important a distinction. ** Imperfectly, but I think that's inevitable.
I defy anybody to have a worse book on the next GE than me. Piled into the Tories at 2.4-3.5 pre partygate, laid off at 4.5 when Boris quit. Backed Labour Majority but got out of it and now I lose £600 Lab Maj and am flat on every other outcome.
And I do this for a living! Explains a lot
I'm...impressed. I am also worried. Dude...how? 🤔
Had a big bet on the Tories in summer 2021 when Lockdown was ending, vaccines were being injected, Boris was flying etc… little did I know what was around the corner
Or to put it another way, had a big bet on an Even money shot that’s now 40/1
Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll 48 18 Yeah yeah
Gut feeling is that this is an outlier, further exaggerating YouGov's house effects.
*However*, it's not all that inconsistent with the Blackpool South result, so we shouldn't get too excited about it being a long way from the local's NEV projection. Local elections do consistently produce different voting patterns from generals, even on the same day, never mind when the turnout is only half to two-thirds that of a general: LDs and smaller parties do better; the leading main party does worse. And the locals were still terrible for the Tories.
It's maybe worth noting that there was *no* opinion poll in 1997 before the election which gave Blair's Labour a lead this big; the largest was a Lab+28 in mid-March - and there were enough polls then that simple random sampling error would have produced the odd pro-Lab outlier too.
Harris and ORB recorded 31 and 30% leads in March 1997 as it goes but point taken. Perhaps more apposite given turnout indications would be 2001, and again Gallup did find a 30% lead in the head in
Fair enough. Those aren't recorded in Mark Pack's PollBase data, for some reason, which I'd always taken as a bit of a bible when it comes to the polling record.
Still, the YouGov is pretty much in line with the ceilings to the ranges before both those elections - neither of which covered the polling industry in glory as they significantly over-estimated Labour's share, though hardly anyone noticed as the polls predicted a landslide and a landslide was duly delivered, and anti-Con tactical voting also meant that the result in MPs returned was consistent with pre-election polling of a larger lead than was needed in reality.
Hmmm, 1.15 for Labour majority. Is that a certain 15% return in six months? I don't fancy backing it.
I've posed this question several times. Most on here seem to expect a labour majority, and there is 15% return by end of Jan 2025, yet people are a bit reluctant to take it. Is it because deep down in the wallet people don't believe that the polling will be reflected on the day? That swingback will occur? Not sure. I've covered my book for all three possible outcomes (Labour maj, hung and Tory maj) so I'm happy, but I am expecting a Labour Majority well into double figures, if not triple. So why don't more agree?
The prism through which we view betting odds never fails to fascinate me - it seems that there needs to be some kind of black swan event in order for Labour to not win a majority at the next election, and we’d be saying it was one of the greatest collapses and polling disasters of all time. But if a 13/2f won the Grand National people might say it was an uncompetitive procession despite both outcomes being the same price
There are 32 runners in the Grand National - all of them with at least an outside chance.
Realistically, in a UK general election under FPTP, there are two (three if you include 'hung Parliament').
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because it's not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable...
Peer review prior to publication is something required by convention, rather than something required by 'the scientific method' itself.
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
Agree. I've written plenty of reports for funders (often made public) that are not peer reviewed. Many of them get more exposure than the papers - I've had the reports picked up by BBC/ITV etc but not the papers (I normally will package the same research up in a peer reviewed paper too, with a slightly different angle/more analysis).
The Cass review is a report. Whether it's called scientific is largely semantics.* It summarises the evidence** and then, due to the lack of evidence, goes further into recommendations based on the authors' best guesses/feelings about the right way forwards. The reviews that were carried out and the primary qualitative research and upcoming secondary healthcare data analysis follow the scientific method and are cautious about concluding anything where the evidence is not there. The report does (and should - no one would have been impressed if Cass had simply said "we don't know, more research is needed) go beyond what has a sound basis in scientific evidence.
* Take my reports mentioned above - they report on science, but I'm not sure I'd call all of them scientific reports - some were a bit too broad brush and narrative for that, I think. I also think it's not that important a distinction. ** Imperfectly, but I think that's inevitable.
Which is great but my issue is that @148grss is trying to diminish the Cass report as not scientific, therefore not of value, can be ignored etc. Which is very wrong indeed.
It reminds me of those who decried that the covid vaccines where not tested fully because the times scales were quicked and overlapped. Its a position that someone doesn't like the report therefore will attack it, rather than discuss what is says and why they believe that the conclusions are wrong.
Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment. After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.
Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
She is a former partner in the banking practice of a law firm, I suspect Starmer will also put her in the Lords
Is she TSE in disguise?
The Elphicke thing is utterly weird. Can't help wondering about the personal drivers behind it. As so often, with revenger dramas they likely blow up in your own face, which I suspect will be the case here. Can't understand why she didn't just resign and give Rishi another horrible by-election to lose.
Watching this race, it came to me that you could remake every Competitive Dad sketch from The Fast Show with a trans ‘woman’ as the Dad, and an actual woman as the kids, and it would work perfectly
🚨BREAKING🚨
A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.
Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”
And? The record for under 18 400m for girls is like 50 seconds; for men it's closer to 45 seconds. That this girl runs 400 m in 56-57 seconds makes her, like, a good amateur?
I assume that OR, like many places that allow trans athletes to compete, have rules around when students can participate (from what I can find students have to have been transitioning consistently and cannot participate in the same year they started their transition). I have no idea how old this girl is - but this is a tenth grade competition, so she is likely 15-16. If she's on HRT muscle mass and strength typically is one of the first things to fall in line with new hormones (3-6months).
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
YouGov don’t “want” anything. They’re a polling company and if they get things wrong then they won’t be trusted. You’re as bad as the Corbynite nutters who don’t trust them because they were “founded by a Tory”.
If anyone wants a 1993 result for the Tories it’s a very very large proportion of the British public.
The goldstandard pollsters of the last 2 general elections have been Survation and Opinium, who were closer to the final voteshares than Yougov were.
The Last Opinium has Labour 40%, Tories 24% and Reform 12% and Survation has Labour 44% Tories 26% and Reform 10%.
Hmmm, 1.15 for Labour majority. Is that a certain 15% return in six months? I don't fancy backing it.
I've posed this question several times. Most on here seem to expect a labour majority, and there is 15% return by end of Jan 2025, yet people are a bit reluctant to take it. Is it because deep down in the wallet people don't believe that the polling will be reflected on the day? That swingback will occur? Not sure. I've covered my book for all three possible outcomes (Labour maj, hung and Tory maj) so I'm happy, but I am expecting a Labour Majority well into double figures, if not triple. So why don't more agree?
Perhaps because there's better value? a 15% return is pretty measly over 5-8 months when there's that level of capital risk and so many other markets to play. You can get roughly the same return by back both Biden and Trump to be the next US president.
The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.
Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....
All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....
Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.
“You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.
The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
Do you know what peer review means? This is absolutely a scientific document - its a review of lots of research. You just don't like it because it doesn't ape your world view.
Peer review means it going through the scrutiny of other people with expertise (peers) reviewing the work before publication. Which the Cass report didn't go through. Some people argue if it needed to, but I would personally say if you want to call the Cass report "science" it needs to have gone through some form of peer review.
Rubbish. Utter drivel. The paper I am writing at the moment is not science yet because it's not been submitted to peer review? You just don't like it because it has a different view to yours.
The scientific method requires that things that are published go through peer review to check that the methodology makes sense, the results are real, and that the experiment or scenario within the paper itself is repeatable...
Peer review prior to publication is something required by convention, rather than something required by 'the scientific method' itself.
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
Agree. I've written plenty of reports for funders (often made public) that are not peer reviewed. Many of them get more exposure than the papers - I've had the reports picked up by BBC/ITV etc but not the papers (I normally will package the same research up in a peer reviewed paper too, with a slightly different angle/more analysis).
The Cass review is a report. Whether it's called scientific is largely semantics.* It summarises the evidence** and then, due to the lack of evidence, goes further into recommendations based on the authors' best guesses/feelings about the right way forwards. The reviews that were carried out and the primary qualitative research and upcoming secondary healthcare data analysis follow the scientific method and are cautious about concluding anything where the evidence is not there. The report does (and should - no one would have been impressed if Cass had simply said "we don't know, more research is needed) go beyond what has a sound basis in scientific evidence.
* Take my reports mentioned above - they report on science, but I'm not sure I'd call all of them scientific reports - some were a bit too broad brush and narrative for that, I think. I also think it's not that important a distinction. ** Imperfectly, but I think that's inevitable.
The difference is that this is also a recommendation to government for what should be their policy, so it goes somewhat beyond the purpose of your reports, I'd guess. And I'd also guess that your reports don't include interviews with the interested parties and subjects of the papers you review ?
I'm not rubbish the report; it's quite plainly a good faith effort. I'm just noting the very large gap between what it is, and how it is being presented by politicians.
The prism through which we view betting odds never fails to fascinate me - it seems that there needs to be some kind of black swan event in order for Labour to not win a majority at the next election, and we’d be saying it was one of the greatest collapses and polling disasters of all time. But if a 13/2f won the Grand National people might say it was an uncompetitive procession despite both outcomes being the same price
There are 32 runners in the Grand National - all of them with at least an outside chance.
Realistically, in a UK general election under FPTP, there are two (three if you include 'hung Parliament').
Hmmm, 1.15 for Labour majority. Is that a certain 15% return in six months? I don't fancy backing it.
I've posed this question several times. Most on here seem to expect a labour majority, and there is 15% return by end of Jan 2025, yet people are a bit reluctant to take it. Is it because deep down in the wallet people don't believe that the polling will be reflected on the day? That swingback will occur? Not sure. I've covered my book for all three possible outcomes (Labour maj, hung and Tory maj) so I'm happy, but I am expecting a Labour Majority well into double figures, if not triple. So why don't more agree?
I think the problem is the nagging doubt that an NEV of 34% produces. 6 to 1 on for a majority is nearly as close to 'banker' as you can get but to tie up money with that nagging little local election underperformance and up to 6 months of black Swan watch..... I mean they're gonna win. They're definitely gonna win. But.......
I defy anybody to have a worse book on the next GE than me. Piled into the Tories at 2.4-3.5 pre partygate, laid off at 4.5 when Boris quit. Backed Labour Majority but got out of it and now I lose £600 Lab Maj and am flat on every other outcome.
And I do this for a living! Explains a lot
Good luck trading out of that one. If you make it to break even by the election I’ll buy you a beer!
Poor Brian Altman KC - someone should have reminded him of how Robert Maxwell used his advisors. He used their good reputation to cloak his own rather less good one.
It is a difficult issue for lawyers: even bad actors are entitled to good lawyers. And acting for a bad guy does not imply approval of their misbehaviour.
But his two mistakes were that he did not sufficiently question or think about what he was being asked to opine on by the Post Office and perhaps over-indulged in overly clever legal comments as if he were involved in an academic exercise. He was the victim of what barristers often do in cross-examination to witnesses: he was funnelled into giving the answer the PO wanted to hear.
His other mistake was in giving an opinion on matters he was not qualified to assess. He had no real basis for assessing how good the PO's internal investigations team was. And he didn't even ask the most basic questions. This failing was pretty brutally exposed by Jason Beer yesterday.
What flattery and large fees will get you ....
Just because you are an expert in X does not make you an expert on Y. A lesson for us all.
The prism through which we view betting odds never fails to fascinate me - it seems that there needs to be some kind of black swan event in order for Labour to not win a majority at the next election, and we’d be saying it was one of the greatest collapses and polling disasters of all time. But if a 13/2f won the Grand National people might say it was an uncompetitive procession despite both outcomes being the same price
There are 32 runners in the Grand National - all of them with at least an outside chance.
Realistically, in a UK general election under FPTP, there are two (three if you include 'hung Parliament').
@lara_spirit Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss
CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1)
Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.
No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
The only way it makes sense is if there are a lot of people willing to vote for the8r conservative councillor or conservative council who are nevertheless so unhappy with the government that they will shop elsewhere at the GE.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
Yougov like Godwin seem to desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario for Reform to overtake the Tories and therefore Reform seems to be higher with them than other polls at Tory expense
YouGov don’t “want” anything. They’re a polling company and if they get things wrong then they won’t be trusted. You’re as bad as the Corbynite nutters who don’t trust them because they were “founded by a Tory”.
If anyone wants a 1993 result for the Tories it’s a very very large proportion of the British public.
The goldstandard pollsters of the last 2 general elections have been Survation and Opinium, who were closer to the final voteshares than Yougov were.
The Last Opinium has Labour 40%, Tories 24% and Reform 12% and Survation has Labour 44% Tories 26% and Reform 10%.
Opinium and Survation also have Tory voteshares much closer to their local election share last week than Yougov, reflecting too the lower voteshare at general compared to local elections even if Reform look higher nationally than locally
Watching this race, it came to me that you could remake every Competitive Dad sketch from The Fast Show with a trans ‘woman’ as the Dad, and an actual woman as the kids, and it would work perfectly
🚨BREAKING🚨
A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.
Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”
And? The record for under 18 400m for girls is like 50 seconds; for men it's closer to 45 seconds. That this girl runs 400 m in 56-57 seconds makes her, like, a good amateur?
I assume that OR, like many places that allow trans athletes to compete, have rules around when students can participate (from what I can find students have to have been transitioning consistently and cannot participate in the same year they started their transition). I have no idea how old this girl is - but this is a tenth grade competition, so she is likely 15-16. If she's on HRT muscle mass and strength typically is one of the first things to fall in line with new hormones (3-6months).
He’s not on HRT, so it’s literally a boy competing in the girls race
I defy anybody to have a worse book on the next GE than me. Piled into the Tories at 2.4-3.5 pre partygate, laid off at 4.5 when Boris quit. Backed Labour Majority but got out of it and now I lose £600 Lab Maj and am flat on every other outcome.
And I do this for a living! Explains a lot
I'm...impressed. I am also worried. Dude...how? 🤔
Had a big bet on the Tories in summer 2021 when Lockdown was ending, vaccines were being injected, Boris was flying etc… little did I know what was around the corner
Or to put it another way, had a big bet on an Even money shot that’s now 40/1
Oh, arse. Not good. Still, the race never ends: there's always tomorrow, and I'm sure you'll have better days ahead
Now that the psychologically significant 30pp lead has been seen again, will this lead to a reaction among Tory MPs?
66% of poll respondents expect a Labour majority of some size. Only 14% a hung Parliament. Sunak has a bit of convincing to do.
A lot more people want a Labour majority than currently say they will vote Labour, 46% to 34% (inc. don't knows). This does suggest a lot of potential for tactical voting.
Comments
JL Partners, Survation, Savanta, Deltapoll, BMG, Opinium, More in Common generally mid to high teens lead
Teche, Redfield, We think generally low 20s
YouGov, People Polling, Ipsos mid to high 20s
An expert is a person with credentials in the field, combined with relevant experience and completely agreeing with whatever I happen to believe this morning.
This is how the justice system is gamed in many countries. You don’t nobble the judge. You pick a judge for the case who has the views that you want.
The same goes for dozens of rural small businesses, cashing in on MAMILs and cycle tourers from the big cities. I've noted this in Scottish Borders, East Lothian and in N.Wales - all it takes is some cycle racks, pastries and coffee.
Given 93% of UK adults can ride a bike and the massive uptick in interest during and after COVID, your hotel is simply cashing in on a trend. If rural community councils are serious about encouraging economic growth in their areas, they should do all they can to get on the NCN or long distance footpaths like Offa's Dyke. Unlike drivers, people walking and cycling need something local to eat and somewhere local to stay.
I suspect it’s more likely that many of these Tories are using opinion poll responses to register a protest by saying they’ll vote Reform, when they won’t. Reform will get 6-7%, not 13%, and the Tories will get more like 25%.
*The electorate* desperately want a Canada 1993 scenario. Your party utterly disgusts and appalls them. They want you not just gone, but *gone*
Sorry, but thems the breaks.
Cass did not say that healthcare should be denied to trans children as you allege. Where is this “growing consensus”? You are simply spouting talking points from politicians that agree with you. Your ad hominem smears of Cass are utterly repugnant.
Apologies if you are a paediatrician in disguise but nothing you’ve posted on this topic accords with what is actually in the report. You just slag it off because it doesn’t fit your ideological viewpoint. Neoliberalism and Foucault have a lot to answer for.
They seem to want a serious defeat for the Tories, but not a Canada style wipeout.
It would be weirder and much more interesting if the national polls matched the local election results, tbh.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/may/09/medicine-shortages-in-england-beyond-critical-pharmacists-warn
Drug shortages in England are now at such critical levels that patients are at risk of immediate harm and even death, pharmacists have warned.
The situation is so serious that pharmacists increasingly have to issue “owings” to patients – telling someone that only part of their prescription can be dispensed and asking them to come back for the rest of it later, once the pharmacist has sourced the remainder.
Hundreds of different drugs have become hard or impossible to obtain, according to Community Pharmacy England (CPE), which published the report...
If anyone wants a 1993 result for the Tories it’s a very very large proportion of the British public.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_and_Finance_Institute
Which has some interest in staying relevant under a new government, presumably ?
But it does present us (and Europe) with a choice of either paying more for our widely prescribed drugs, or developing the capacity to produce them domestically.
And a much better morning, weather-wise. Our blue-tit chicks are very active and both parents very busy. This dad seems much more hands- (or beak-on) than his predecessors.
The best accommodation network I have used is Cyclists Welcome from CyclingUK; another well known one is Warm Showers. I'd always put these ahead of places that just say "we care cyclist friendly" with no external certification.
For hotels I find that taking the cycle to the room is usually fine - after all a cycle tyre has less contact area than the sole of a shoe.
The Cyclists Touring Club started the first such accommodation network in 1887, and gave out these emblems to be displayed which are still there in some places:
https://eghammuseum.org/cyclists-touring-club/
What Farage does is the unknown factor, of course.
On bikewankers - there is a similarity between cyclists who claim they can’t ride at less than 20mph (and stop for anything) and motorists who claim the same. Have the two species been verified, or are they actually the same?
For me, bicycle touring combines the best of walking and driving: you have the satisfaction of travelling under your own power, but you can also achieve substantial distances. You also get fitter, and you really appreciate the food!
*However*, it's not all that inconsistent with the Blackpool South result, so we shouldn't get too excited about it being a long way from the local's NEV projection. Local elections do consistently produce different voting patterns from generals, even on the same day, never mind when the turnout is only half to two-thirds that of a general: LDs and smaller parties do better; the leading main party does worse. And the locals were still terrible for the Tories.
It's maybe worth noting that there was *no* opinion poll in 1997 before the election which gave Blair's Labour a lead this big; the largest was a Lab+28 in mid-March - and there were enough polls then that simple random sampling error would have produced the odd pro-Lab outlier too.
Certainly not Bailey or any of the 3 external hawks I think.
The network is around 150 but struggling for viability in some places. A proportion of those are owned by 3rd parties.
Trends have been towards higher quality and more individual rooms over time.
The streets were exceptionally wide and setted, the buildings rather old and tired. A seaside vibe but not Whitby or Blackpool. Almost Latin American.
Perhaps more apposite given turnout indications would be 2001, and again Gallup did find a 30% lead in the head in
Note that a great deal of the report is narrative rather than statistics.
It's a shame that so few smaller remote ones remain, like Allt Beidhe.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0MoCMVgdY7VUCZ55i0Pvng
This is one reason why I think under Starmer we may see something about countryside access as of right in England.
...The Housing and Finance Institute (HFI) is an industry group whose stated aim is "to boost the capacity and delivery of housing".[1] The institute is privately funded and works with the private and public sector to build more homes in the United Kingdom.
It was set up by the Cameron–Clegg coalition following a review by Natalie Elphicke and Keith House...
You have scientific papers.
And you have peer reviewed scientific papers.
The latter is a specific category as part of being accepted for publication in a journal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68945445
Saudi authorities have permitted the use of lethal force to clear land for a futuristic desert city being built by dozens of Western companies, an ex-intelligence officer has told the BBC.
Col Rabih Alenezi says he was ordered to evict villagers from a tribe in the Gulf state to make way for The Line, part of the Neom eco-project.
One of them was subsequently shot and killed for protesting against eviction.
The Saudi government and Neom management refused to comment...
..Displaced villagers were extremely reluctant to comment, fearing that speaking to foreign media could further endanger their detained relatives.
But we spoke to those evicted elsewhere for another Saudi Vision 2030 scheme. More than a million people have been displaced for the Jeddah Central project in the western Saudi Arabian city - set to include an opera house, sporting district, and high-end retail and residential units.
Nader Hijazi [not his real name] grew up in Aziziyah - one of approximately 63 neighbourhoods affected by those demolitions. His father's home was razed in 2021, for which he received less than a month's warning.
Hijazi says the photos he had seen of his former neighbourhood were shocking, saying they evoked a warzone..
I used to do a lot of cycle camping / touring although I haven't been able to since Covid. If you can cope with a bit of dodgy weather it is by far the best way to see the Hebrides.
Though the camper van phenomenon (and that is a new trend) has spoiled it somewhat.
I'll almost certainly be having a second and third can of lunch before I get to the top..
Bikepacking = offroad, no pannier racks, stripped back, big tyres or even a mountain bike, shorter trips
Touring = the inverse
And I do this for a living! Explains a lot
The Cass report includes discussion and analysis of a number of scientific publications, though comes to few conclusions about them other than that they are far from definitive.
It also includes a great deal of narrative writing on sociopolitical issues, as well as the state of knowledge in the field.
It's certainly not a scientific paper in the accepted sense. And its own conclusions are far from definitive, either.
🚨BREAKING🚨
A trans-identified male dominated the Girls Varsity 400m at the Portland Interscholastic League Championship Semi-Finals yesterday.
Aayden Gallagher will now compete in the finals as a “girl.”
(Joint release with @ThePublicaNow)
https://x.com/reduxxmag/status/1788286633650868612?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I've done off-roading on a old style touring bike (South Downs) and on-roading on a mountain bike with pannier racks (Hebrides) so I've no idea what those would be called.
Having fun on a bike, I suppose!
And quite a lot of middle aged people and older do it. This trend will be helped by EAPCs becoming available with 50-80 miles assist ranges.
Susanna Thornton, who I linked to previously, is in her late 50s and does things like trips to Sweden from the UK, and multi-day trips here.
One real problem in the UK is taking trains to get to a starting point; Network Rail and many rail companies are diabolical.
I tried cycling down a dune on Coll on my road bike with predictable results
Take the score for the De Vries 2014 study, which misses the Cass cut off point for not being considered "low quality" because it used unvalidated metric scales to measure wellbeing, alongside multiple validated metric scales for other criteria - despite the fact that Cass has stated that trying to measure wellbeing is important and not enough studies do that! So the study was downgraded for trying a, at the time, new scale for measuring wellbeing along with many other verified scales. That gave the whole report a half a point deduction using their methodology and therefore not being given weight in the overall narrative conclusions of the paper. Things like this keep popping up - arbitrary and arguably unscientific reasons to dismiss papers and studies that suggest that transitioning is not an issue, and inclusion of and citations to people like Ken Zucker despite the fact more recent research contradicts Zucker's claims (and the Cass report even cites some of that research such as Steensma's 2013 work, claiming that it backs Zucker's work when it in fact comes to the opposite conclusion). These are the things one would expect to be questioned during peer review.
The Cass review is a report. Whether it's called scientific is largely semantics.* It summarises the evidence** and then, due to the lack of evidence, goes further into recommendations based on the authors' best guesses/feelings about the right way forwards. The reviews that were carried out and the primary qualitative research and upcoming secondary healthcare data analysis follow the scientific method and are cautious about concluding anything where the evidence is not there. The report does (and should - no one would have been impressed if Cass had simply said "we don't know, more research is needed) go beyond what has a sound basis in scientific evidence.
* Take my reports mentioned above - they report on science, but I'm not sure I'd call all of them scientific reports - some were a bit too broad brush and narrative for that, I think. I also think it's not that important a distinction.
** Imperfectly, but I think that's inevitable.
Or to put it another way, had a big bet on an Even money shot that’s now 40/1
Still, the YouGov is pretty much in line with the ceilings to the ranges before both those elections - neither of which covered the polling industry in glory as they significantly over-estimated Labour's share, though hardly anyone noticed as the polls predicted a landslide and a landslide was duly delivered, and anti-Con tactical voting also meant that the result in MPs returned was consistent with pre-election polling of a larger lead than was needed in reality.
Also this interview with Dr Cass is worth reading - https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview/2024/05/hilary-cass-interview-review-transgender-identity-tavistock-puberty-blockers-do-i-regret-it.
SUMMER ELECTION CONFIRMED /s
Realistically, in a UK general election under FPTP, there are two (three if you include 'hung Parliament').
It reminds me of those who decried that the covid vaccines where not tested fully because the times scales were quicked and overlapped. Its a position that someone doesn't like the report therefore will attack it, rather than discuss what is says and why they believe that the conclusions are wrong.
https://worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/sprints/400-metres/all/women/u18?regionType=world&timing=electronic&page=1&bestResultsOnly=true&firstDay=1900-01-01&lastDay=2024-05-09&maxResultsByCountry=all&eventId=10229511&ageCategory=u18
https://www.athletic.net/athlete/24853874/track-and-field/high-school
I assume that OR, like many places that allow trans athletes to compete, have rules around when students can participate (from what I can find students have to have been transitioning consistently and cannot participate in the same year they started their transition). I have no idea how old this girl is - but this is a tenth grade competition, so she is likely 15-16. If she's on HRT muscle mass and strength typically is one of the first things to fall in line with new hormones (3-6months).
The Last Opinium has Labour 40%, Tories 24% and Reform 12% and Survation has Labour 44% Tories 26% and Reform 10%.
So both closer than Yougov and Survation in particular has a lower Reform share
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
And I'd also guess that your reports don't include interviews with the interested parties and subjects of the papers you review ?
I'm not rubbish the report; it's quite plainly a good faith effort. I'm just noting the very large gap between what it is, and how it is being presented by politicians.
I mean they're gonna win. They're definitely gonna win. But.......
Who are our MP equivalents ?
Grothman attempts to lecture Raskin on the use of the word ‘Republic’ in the pledge of allegiance. Raskin provides Grothman with a history lesson
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1788303082549649526
It is a difficult issue for lawyers: even bad actors are entitled to good lawyers. And acting for a bad guy does not imply approval of their misbehaviour.
But his two mistakes were that he did not sufficiently question or think about what he was being asked to opine on by the Post Office and perhaps over-indulged in overly clever legal comments as if he were involved in an academic exercise. He was the victim of what barristers often do in cross-examination to witnesses: he was funnelled into giving the answer the PO wanted to hear.
His other mistake was in giving an opinion on matters he was not qualified to assess. He had no real basis for assessing how good the PO's internal investigations team was. And he didn't even ask the most basic questions. This failing was pretty brutally exposed by Jason Beer yesterday.
What flattery and large fees will get you ....
Just because you are an expert in X does not make you an expert on Y. A lesson for us all.
66% of poll respondents expect a Labour majority of some size. Only 14% a hung Parliament. Sunak has a bit of convincing to do.
A lot more people want a Labour majority than currently say they will vote Labour, 46% to 34% (inc. don't knows). This does suggest a lot of potential for tactical voting.