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Punters remain overwhelming convinced about Starmer winning a majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 9 in General
imagePunters remain overwhelming convinced about Starmer winning a majority – politicalbetting.com

As we can see from the chart above showing the Betfair overall majority market over the last ten days last week’s elections have reinforced the expectation abour Starmer winning a majority.

Read the full story here

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    First ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    edited May 9
    Despite Elphicke, probably.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,907
    edited May 9
    Third MP to defect?

    In other news, sounds like Nadhim Zahawi is stepping down at the GE. Not sure if that’s good or bad news for the LibDems’ chances of taking Stratford on Avon.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288

    Third MP to defect?

    Whence, and whither ?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    Poland has its first high level defector: One of the dubious judges, appointed by the former far-right Minister of Justice has appeared in Belarus and started giving interviews on Russian TV
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1788394155137278430
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    230th anniversary of the execution of the great scientist Lavoisier.

    Founding father of modern chemistry - and biochemistry.
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    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 149
    Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Possibly but the danger is in trying to prevent the defection you provoke it.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,400
    Punters were convinced about Brexit iirc...
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    sbjme19 said:

    Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.

    That would require levels of political depth and cunning we are yet to see from the current Tories, which of course could be a cunning plan to make us think they are incapable of cunning plans ahead of an election campaign and then unleash a surprise cunning plan.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Defections occur for all sorts of reasons - few, in my experience, relate to great matters of policy and principle. More are about personalities and ambitions. Sometimes it can be those trying to stop the defection who are the root cause.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,325
    edited May 9
    Nigelb said:

    Poland has its first high level defector: One of the dubious judges, appointed by the former far-right Minister of Justice has appeared in Belarus and started giving interviews on Russian TV
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1788394155137278430

    It has gone down very badly in Poland, even on the right. It gives Tusk all the ammunition he needs to launch an investigation.

    Its a bit like Snowden... all vigorous denials of Russian collaboration and then he turns up in Moscow and such denials look rather... fake.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    ToryJim said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Possibly but the danger is in trying to prevent the defection you provoke it.
    But this is like arguing that you stoke Culture Wars if you put up a fight.

    Your opponents aren't going to stop trying just because you don't.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Do the Conservative whips have any sense?

    They've spent so long playing on easy mode (if you have a big majority, who cares about the odd bit of disloyalty?) that they've been careless for quite a while.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    sbjme19 said:

    Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.

    More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poland has its first high level defector: One of the dubious judges, appointed by the former far-right Minister of Justice has appeared in Belarus and started giving interviews on Russian TV
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1788394155137278430

    It has gone down very badly in Poland, even on the right. It gives Tusk all the ammunition he needs to launch an investigation.

    Its a bit like Snowden... all vigorous denials of Russian collaboration and then he turns up in Moscow and such denials look rather... fake.
    Autocrats have got to autocrat.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 9
    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Do the Conservative whips have any sense?

    They've spent so long playing on easy mode (if you have a big majority, who cares about the odd bit of disloyalty?) that they've been careless for quite a while.
    Given the calibre of the current cabinet, what does that say about the quality of MPs left to man the whips office...
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,325

    Third MP to defect?

    In other news, sounds like Nadhim Zahawi is stepping down at the GE. Not sure if that’s good or bad news for the LibDems’ chances of taking Stratford on Avon.

    Well, the Lib Dems have a well embedded local candidate, they took overall control of the council for the first time last year and the Tories now have to make a very rapid selection of a new candidate just weeks before the GE, so it going to be a sticky wicket for the Tories now.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    Love this in the Guardian vox pop in Dover re Elphicke.

    “ His wife, Carol Conway, 79, said: “We don’t want Labour to run the country. It’s gone to the dogs. I’m shocked that she’s done that.”

    So there is hope for the Tories that there are voters who think the country is screwed so don’t want Labour to screw it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/09/i-understand-why-she-moved-dover-voters-on-natalie-elphicke-switching-parties
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Do the Conservative whips have any sense?

    They've spent so long playing on easy mode (if you have a big majority, who cares about the odd bit of disloyalty?) that they've been careless for quite a while.
    Speaking of Conservative whips, one of them features in the latest Times Radio Exit Interviews series (as the name suggests, talks with retiring MPs in the style of business exit interviews):-

    The night Liz Truss’s government collapsed
    "Half an hour before the vote, the No 10 machine decided they were going to interfere."

    Outgoing Conservative MP and former whip Craig Whittaker reveals what really happened on the night a fracking vote became a confidence motion in Liz Truss.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoachaALMdI
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Having got the London Mayoral horribly wrong, YouGov double down on horribly wrong.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    @Heathener did predict a 30 point lead this spring as I recall,

    👏👏👏
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493

    ToryJim said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Possibly but the danger is in trying to prevent the defection you provoke it.
    But this is like arguing that you stoke Culture Wars if you put up a fight.

    Your opponents aren't going to stop trying just because you don't.
    As with most things it isn’t necessarily whether you act but how you act. When trying to ward off defection then the preventive action needs to be delicate and well thought through. I’m not convinced the Tory party is in the collective psychological place to be as considered as they need to be.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    boulay said:

    Love this in the Guardian vox pop in Dover re Elphicke.

    “ His wife, Carol Conway, 79, said: “We don’t want Labour to run the country. It’s gone to the dogs. I’m shocked that she’s done that.”

    So there is hope for the Tories that there are voters who think the country is screwed so don’t want Labour to screw it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/09/i-understand-why-she-moved-dover-voters-on-natalie-elphicke-switching-parties

    Or don't want Labour to unscrew it. An equally logical conclusion from Mrs Conway's words.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    Onc they've made the decision, no, there's not a lot to be done.

    The art is to head off the issues before they get that bad. What was Natalie Elphicke really unhappy about? (It's hardly ever policy as such.) Who were her friends who could help keep her on the straight and narrow? Would more face time with a cabinet minister have helped?

    Man management 101, in other words. And whilst Rishi has clearly flunked that course, he needs people who are good at it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    It's in your interests that the Conservatives take no action because you want to see them reamed and enjoy the spectacle.

    But there are all sorts of steps that can be taken. Defection is a big move that can be emotionally torturous and can affect your reputation both professionally and personally.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,887
    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,039
    stodge said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    Defections occur for all sorts of reasons - few, in my experience, relate to great matters of policy and principle. More are about personalities and ambitions. Sometimes it can be those trying to stop the defection who are the root cause.
    Mosley is a good example.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited May 9
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.
    But they got the other mayoralties spot on (within the MOE if I recall).
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154

    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    Onc they've made the decision, no, there's not a lot to be done.

    The art is to head off the issues before they get that bad. What was Natalie Elphicke really unhappy about? (It's hardly ever policy as such.) Who were her friends who could help keep her on the straight and narrow? Would more face time with a cabinet minister have helped?

    Man management 101, in other words. And whilst Rishi has clearly flunked that course, he needs people who are good at it.
    I think, as has been pointed out since yesterday, this is a cynical career planning exercise by her.

    She will either have been promised to be Dame Elphicke of housing and Blackshorts or will be on loose women with a highly paid newspaper column slagging off whoever is in charge of immigration and defending abusive men because they’re hot.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,039
    Cicero said:

    Third MP to defect?

    In other news, sounds like Nadhim Zahawi is stepping down at the GE. Not sure if that’s good or bad news for the LibDems’ chances of taking Stratford on Avon.

    Well, the Lib Dems have a well embedded local candidate, they took overall control of the council for the first time last year and the Tories now have to make a very rapid selection of a new candidate just weeks before the GE, so it going to be a sticky wicket for the Tories now.
    As dodgy a geezah as he is, I always quite liked Zahawi. Seemed pragmatic and affable, if unsuited to high office for venality reasons.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 819
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    I think this nicely illustrates the point of the header. I think the main camps of opinion are:

    1) Tories recovery polling lead, but not enough to stop a modest Labour majority, particularly given there will be Scottish gains too

    2) Votes reflect current pollsters that are more optimistic for the Tories at say 15pts. Landslide in traditional sense but majority under 100.

    3) Local elections gave false hope to how badly voters will punish the Tories on the national stage. Tories wiped out to closer to 100 seats or less. As implied by this poll.

    All plausible. The no Labour majority requires a much more optimistic variation of scenario 1. A 10% probability sounds about fair.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288
    Texas just set a new record for grid battery power.

    ERCOT hit a new record for battery dispatch tonight at 3.2 GW.

    This smashed the previous record set less than a year ago by over 1 GW (+47%).

    https://twitter.com/grid_status/status/1788387086162145320
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    Perhaps there should be a judge-led inquiry into what the word expert means. Someone who is experienced in a field, someone who has made major advances in a field, perhaps, or anyone with letters after their name who happens to agree with me. That is now what they are arguing about.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    Good morning.

    Not expecting to be around on here much until the GE campaign as I’m very busy at the moment and UK politics is dull to me. Most everyone knows Labour are going to win so we’re all strumming our fingers.

    I don’t think the defection was Starmer’s finest moment but it was tricky for him politically because if he didn’t accept her he could have been wide open to attacks about migrants. This has undermined one of the few remaining attack dog areas left for Sunak.

    All rather ‘meh’ anyway because she’s standing down at the GE.

    What it does show is that Labour are in the business of winning back power. Unlike the Conservatives.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,600

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    In fairness, they wouldn't be the first politicians to choose their experts to fit theor ideology.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    @Heathener did predict a 30 point lead this spring as I recall,

    👏👏👏
    Thank you :)

    I did!

    xx
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,039
    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to pile on YouGov either. No pollster is ever going to be accurate all the time, and it’s a fool who pulls out individual flubs/outliers and presents them as the whole.

    One evidence point in a group of series.

    30% lead does seem outlandish, but tbh it follows the trend line. 6 months ago 26% might have seemed outlandish, not so much now.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 9
    Does the PB comments box have a new "In Triplicate" feature?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 9
    ...
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 9

    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    It's in your interests that the Conservatives take no action because you want to see them reamed and enjoy the spectacle.

    But there are all sorts of steps that can be taken. Defection is a big move that can be emotionally torturous and can affect your reputation both professionally and personally.
    How exactly does one reduce Elphicke's reputation? *

    (Good morning everyone.)

    * Hmmm. I suppose that GB News or Sky Australia might not touch her now.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382

    Third MP to defect?

    In other news, sounds like Nadhim Zahawi is stepping down at the GE. Not sure if that’s good or bad news for the LibDems’ chances of taking Stratford on Avon.

    Another one would be a fourth MP, wouldn't it? Wakeford, Poulter and Elphicke are the three so far.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Oh look! Another day, another meaningless fringe post about something which doesn’t really matter to the vast majority of people.

    When will the older generation realise that this country is moving on and this issue, like so many of the culture wars, are irrelevant to our needs?

    Well you’ll have a long time in the political wilderness to answer that one.

    Have a nice day everyone.

    xx
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    Perhaps there should be a judge-led inquiry into what the word expert means. Someone who is experienced in a field, someone who has made major advances in a field, perhaps, or anyone with letters after their name who happens to agree with me. That is now what they are arguing about.
    Worth noting that Cass is not an expert in trans issues (or wasn't before starting the review - she probably is now!) but they was likely deliberate as finding someone neutral in the field would be near impossible.

    She is an expert on child healthcare as a practitioner.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288

    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    It's in your interests that the Conservatives take no action because you want to see them reamed and enjoy the spectacle.

    But there are all sorts of steps that can be taken. Defection is a big move that can be emotionally torturous and can affect your reputation both professionally and personally.
    Nothing to do with what I want.

    See my post upthread. This is the fag end not just of a government, but likely any prospects of being in Parliament for a large number of Tory MPs.

    Appropriately enough for the party of market forces, and enlightened self interest, they are looking at their future earning prospects.
    Leave it much longer and it will be too late to derive much benefit from jumping ship.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Not expecting to be around on here much until the GE campaign as I’m very busy at the moment and UK politics is dull to me. Most everyone knows Labour are going to win so we’re all strumming our fingers.

    I don’t think the defection was Starmer’s finest moment but it was tricky for him politically because if he didn’t accept her he could have been wide open to attacks about migrants. This has undermined one of the few remaining attack dog areas left for Sunak.

    All rather ‘meh’ anyway because she’s standing down at the GE.

    What it does show is that Labour are in the business of winning back power. Unlike the Conservatives.

    That's the thing I picked up instantly and a lot of people forget.

    The MP from the constituency most impacted by small boat immigrants have joined the Labour Party saying they will do a better job. That's a whole set of Tory attack angles removed / countered in 1 section.

    So yep she's probably not the ideal Labour candidate but she has made the next election somewhat harder for the Tory party by removing one of the planned attack lines...
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    Punters were convinced about Brexit iirc...

    Half were.
    Temporarily.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,395
    Just seen a sign outside a hotel saying 'Bike Friendly', with a picture of a bicycle and a smiley face

    This does seem to imply a pleasing level of discrimination against bikewankers elsewhere
  • Options
    Doogle1941Doogle1941 Posts: 14
    Heathener said:

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Oh look! Another day, another meaningless fringe post about something which doesn’t really matter to the vast majority of people.

    When will the older generation realise that this country is moving on and this issue, like so many of the culture wars, are irrelevant to our needs?

    Well you’ll have a long time in the political wilderness to answer that one.

    Have a nice day everyone.

    xx
    Orwell recognized the control of speech was critical in building a totalitarian regime in '1984'.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @KevinASchofield

    According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a 452-seat majority and leave the Tories on 13 seats.

    #hungparliament
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a 452-seat majority and leave the Tories on 13 seats.

    #hungparliament

    And as I said below - 4th in the number of seats - so just getting the odd question now and then as the Lib Dems are currently experiencing...
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    Ghedebrav said:

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to pile on YouGov either. No pollster is ever going to be accurate all the time, and it’s a fool who pulls out individual flubs/outliers and presents them as the whole.

    One evidence point in a group of series.

    30% lead does seem outlandish, but tbh it follows the trend line. 6 months ago 26% might have seemed outlandish, not so much now.
    And Yougov are not “doubling down”, they have a methodology and you don’t just throw out your methodology every time an election - particularly a non Westminster one - gives different results.

    One thing Labour could really do with is the sort of vote share Yougov implies. They are routinely higher for Labour than the others, including the ones that also show low Tory support.

    Much easier to feel confident about a 20+ point gap if you’re in the high 40s than if the gap is all down to your opponents scoring very low.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @Savanta_UK

    Our latest research for our general election partners @Telegraph suggests that just 16% of the public believes Rishi Sunak's claim that the country is likely heading towards a hung parliament.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    I completely agree with this. 18% for the Tories just isn't credible in light of local election results last week, which were bad for them but in no way "about to dip under 20% in the General Election" bad. This poll doesn't pass the sniff test.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,965
    Scott_xP said:

    @Savanta_UK

    Our latest research for our general election partners @Telegraph suggests that just 16% of the public believes Rishi Sunak's claim that the country is likely heading towards a hung parliament.

    Grrr... "Rishi Sunak's claim that the country is probably heading towards a hung parliament.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    Punters were convinced about Brexit iirc...

    Similarly they were convinced Khan would win in London. Unlike many on here. And in the papers. So take your pick.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a 452-seat majority and leave the Tories on 13 seats.

    #hungparliament

    Regardless of anyone’s opinion of the current government a situation like that would not be ultimately healthy for democracy. It would also be a headache for Lab party management too.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 9
    The enormity of YouGovs lead aside its a third poll showing a dip in Reform since the LEs, only Redfield hasnt thus far
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like canvassing returns - on their own they are extremely dubious (people lie from politeness or other reasons, canvassers make guesses, etc.) , but if you recanvass the same people over time, you get a surprisingly accurate picture of what's going on.

    Delta showed a small dip in the Lsabour lead, YG shows an increase, so I wouldn't conclude that anything special has happened. But the much-awaited swingback is proving elusive for Starmer - will Opinium adjust their polling to reflect that, as they build in a swingback assumption?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to pile on YouGov either. No pollster is ever going to be accurate all the time, and it’s a fool who pulls out individual flubs/outliers and presents them as the whole.

    One evidence point in a group of series.

    30% lead does seem outlandish, but tbh it follows the trend line. 6 months ago 26% might have seemed outlandish, not so much now.
    And Yougov are not “doubling down”, they have a methodology and you don’t just throw out your methodology every time an election - particularly a non Westminster one - gives different results.

    One thing Labour could really do with is the sort of vote share Yougov implies. They are routinely higher for Labour than the others, including the ones that also show low Tory support.

    Much easier to feel confident about a 20+ point gap if you’re in the high 40s than if the gap is all down to your opponents scoring very low.
    Slagging off reputable BPC polling companies is never a good look. YouGov have their hits and misses. They all do.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    @Heathener did predict a 30 point lead this spring as I recall,

    👏👏👏
    Horse too.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a 452-seat majority and leave the Tories on 13 seats.

    #hungparliament

    Stop "sniggling"!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,965
    We must be due another PeoplePolling poll - that should give the Tories some solace (or maybe not)
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like canvassing returns - on their own they are extremely dubious (people lie from politeness or other reasons, canvassers make guesses, etc.) , but if you recanvass the same people over time, you get a surprisingly accurate picture of what's going on.

    Delta showed a small dip in the Lsabour lead, YG shows an increase, so I wouldn't conclude that anything special has happened. But the much-awaited swingback is proving elusive for Starmer - will Opinium adjust their polling to reflect that, as they build in a swingback assumption?
    Opinium don't factor in swingback, they adjust for expected behaviour of Dont Knows.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948
    edited May 9

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    I completely agree with this. 18% for the Tories just isn't credible in light of local election results last week, which were bad for them but in no way "about to dip under 20% in the General Election" bad. This poll doesn't pass the sniff test.
    Yet we have to sometimes see beyond the limits of what we consider credible. Who would have thought in 1987 that the Berlin Wall would have gone by the end of 1989 and Margaret Thatcher by the end of 1990? Just because you have trouble conceiving of something (because it hasn't happened before) doesn't mean it can't happen.

    Those who write about artificial intelligence or the existence of aliens challenge that as well - to imagine that which seems unimaginable isn't easy.

    I'll be honest - I didn't think in 2015 the LDs would be reduced to just 8 seats - I thought 15-20 at worst - but the evidence was in front of me, I chose not to see it. Ask anyone in an LD constituency at that time and they'll tell you Conservative activity ramped up sharply from 2012 onwards - the destruction of the LDs was a plan long in the making and the execution but it was the route to the next Conservative majority Government.

    To be mischievous, when I was an activist in the Alliance days, the "dream" was to re-align British politics by replacing Labour as the main opposition and then going after the Conservatives - perhaps all we did was get it the wrong way round, replace the Conservatives and then go after Labour.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    I completely agree with this. 18% for the Tories just isn't credible in light of local election results last week, which were bad for them but in no way "about to dip under 20% in the General Election" bad. This poll doesn't pass the sniff test.
    Yet we have to sometimes see beyond the limits of what we consider credible. Who would have thought in 1987 that the Berlin Wall would have gone by the end of 1989 and Margaret Thatcher by the end of 1990? Just because you have trouble conceiving of something (because it hasn't happened before) doesn't mean it can't happen.

    Those who write about artificial intelligence or the existence of aliens challenge that as well - to imagine that which seems unimaginable isn't easy.

    I'll be honest - I didn't think in 2015 the LDs would be reduced to just 8 seats - I thought 15-20 at worst - but the evidence was in front of me, I chose not to see it. Ask anyone in an LD constituency at that time and they'll tell you Conservative activity ramped up sharply from 2012 onwards - the destruction of the LDs was a plan long in the making and the execution but it was the route to the next Conservative majority Government.

    To be mischievous, when I was an activist in the Alliance days, the "dream" was to re-align British politics by replacing Labour as the main opposition and then going after the Conservatives - perhaps all we did was get it the wrong way round, replace the Conservatives and then go after Labour.
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.

    Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like canvassing returns - on their own they are extremely dubious (people lie from politeness or other reasons, canvassers make guesses, etc.) , but if you recanvass the same people over time, you get a surprisingly accurate picture of what's going on.

    Delta showed a small dip in the Lsabour lead, YG shows an increase, so I wouldn't conclude that anything special has happened. But the much-awaited swingback is proving elusive for Starmer - will Opinium adjust their polling to reflect that, as they build in a swingback assumption?
    Opinium don't factor in swingback, they adjust for expected behaviour of Dont Knows.
    Which is essentially "swingback", but just using different terminology.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like canvassing returns - on their own they are extremely dubious (people lie from politeness or other reasons, canvassers make guesses, etc.) , but if you recanvass the same people over time, you get a surprisingly accurate picture of what's going on.

    Delta showed a small dip in the Lsabour lead, YG shows an increase, so I wouldn't conclude that anything special has happened. But the much-awaited swingback is proving elusive for Starmer - will Opinium adjust their polling to reflect that, as they build in a swingback assumption?
    Opinium don't factor in swingback, they adjust for expected behaviour of Dont Knows.
    Which is essentially "swingback", but just using different terminology.
    Fair enough
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    I completely agree with this. 18% for the Tories just isn't credible in light of local election results last week, which were bad for them but in no way "about to dip under 20% in the General Election" bad. This poll doesn't pass the sniff test.
    Yet we have to sometimes see beyond the limits of what we consider credible. Who would have thought in 1987 that the Berlin Wall would have gone by the end of 1989 and Margaret Thatcher by the end of 1990? Just because you have trouble conceiving of something (because it hasn't happened before) doesn't mean it can't happen.

    Those who write about artificial intelligence or the existence of aliens challenge that as well - to imagine that which seems unimaginable isn't easy.

    I'll be honest - I didn't think in 2015 the LDs would be reduced to just 8 seats - I thought 15-20 at worst - but the evidence was in front of me, I chose not to see it. Ask anyone in an LD constituency at that time and they'll tell you Conservative activity ramped up sharply from 2012 onwards - the destruction of the LDs was a plan long in the making and the execution but it was the route to the next Conservative majority Government.

    To be mischievous, when I was an activist in the Alliance days, the "dream" was to re-align British politics by replacing Labour as the main opposition and then going after the Conservatives - perhaps all we did was get it the wrong way round, replace the Conservatives and then go after Labour.
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government!
    More like go back to your constituencies and prepare to be disappointed.
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 947
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If the Conservative whips have any sense they'll be going through all their lists and intelligence for any other possible defectors and doing deals.

    To what end ?
    If someone's going to defect, they will. It's not as though whips will have any further influence over them... short of blackmail.
    It's in your interests that the Conservatives take no action because you want to see them reamed and enjoy the spectacle.

    But there are all sorts of steps that can be taken. Defection is a big move that can be emotionally torturous and can affect your reputation both professionally and personally.
    Nothing to do with what I want.

    See my post upthread. This is the fag end not just of a government, but likely any prospects of being in Parliament for a large number of Tory MPs.

    Appropriately enough for the party of market forces, and enlightened self interest, they are looking at their future earning prospects.
    Leave it much longer and it will be too late to derive much benefit from jumping ship.
    But what benefit does your hypothetical cynically self interested Tory defector get from defecting? They're unlikely to win reelection either way, and I can't really see it being a major influence on their future earning ability -- am I missing something? If anything I'd think it more likely to work the other way by damaging the MP's links with their personal/professional network that they might hope to use to find future employment or to trade on in a lobbying job. At least, it seems like it's usually a pretty finely balanced decision in the mind of somebody who does defect to another party, because in the stories you hear about they take ages to make up their mind, and have to be persuaded and cajoled quite carefully by the receiving party. So I agree with Casino_Royale that the Tories have quite a bit of scope for persuading potential ship-jumpers that it wouldn't be in their best interests.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    Half is roughly what happened to Major as well in 1997. Personally, I think Sunak would take that as a lucky escape. Especially when you look at the sort of places it implies are still in play.

    It is still a lot of MPs about to have no job, few prospects and an awkward length of time until retirement. But if the Conservatives don't have enough tame think tanks, charities and businesses who can offer sinecures to see enough people all right, what exactly is the point of them?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,965

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.

    Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.

    On the subject of things can changing quickly: we went to a talk last night on the Maya civilisation. 2000+ years of existence and it largely collapsed in 100 years between 800AD and 900AD apparently.

    (Remarkably they had no metal tools and did not use the wheel, yet built 1000s of stone buildings some over 70m high.)
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948
    edited May 9

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.

    Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.

    The Battle of Vouille is one of the lesser known events of European history but its significance was huge in cementing the legacy of the Frankish King Clovis.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982
    edited May 9

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Stodge, I recently watched an interesting video mapping out the rise of the Franks. The Visigoths at the time had most of Gaul and the Iberian peninsula. Very easily could've led to a permanent nation covering today's Portugal, Spain, and France (and Andorra/Monaco), and that either being conquered by or totally resisting the Moors.

    Things can change very rapidly. An even better example is that Majorian might've reunited the Empire and saved the West, if Ricimer weren't around.

    I quite like "Rise of the Franks".

    Coming soon: the Rule of the Franks. The Cabinet to be replaced by Spencer, Sinatra Jr, and the Ghosts of Zapra and Lloyd Wright **.

    Could we tell the difference?

    ** To ensure continuity by creating things that collapse in short order.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yebbut ReFUK have dropped so the Tories lead by 5 POINTS which means deffo a hung parliament and the plan is working so you have to back the Prime Minister because Keir Starmer doesn't know what a penis is
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,982

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    Yougov doubling down after the gap between the 2 main parties was found to be considerably smaller than their polling was indicating. I am beginning to seriously wonder whether their panel system has reached the end of the road. They were well outside the margin of error in London.

    No one doubts that Labour are well ahead but I simply don't believe this is compatible with the millions of votes counted in the last week.

    That poll has the Tories as 4th party behind the SNP.

    once the Tories get below 25% of votes the safe seats start rapidly dropping away...
    And do you seriously think that is going to happen?

    I can see the Tories losing 180 seats, that's roughly half of their seats, just like they lost roughly half their councillors who were standing last week. I don't believe for a moment that they will lose more than 300.
    Half is roughly what happened to Major as well in 1997. Personally, I think Sunak would take that as a lucky escape. Especially when you look at the sort of places it implies are still in play.

    It is still a lot of MPs about to have no job, few prospects and an awkward length of time until retirement. But if the Conservatives don't have enough tame think tanks, charities and businesses who can offer sinecures to see enough people all right, what exactly is the point of them?
    Remember that MPs get their full final salary pension from the age of 60. And if they are in the MPs' Staff Pension Scheme, they can get at their pension pots from 55.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    148grss said:

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
    More specifically, it's a summary written by Dr Cass and her team of the York systematic reviews, combined with a set of other papers selected by her/her team, and a set of various other sources selected by her/her team
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    ELPHICKE
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss

    CON 18 (=)
    LAB 48 (+4)
    LIB DEM 9 (-1)
    REF UK 13 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-1)

    Fieldwork 7 - 8 May

    @Heathener did predict a 30 point lead this spring as I recall,

    👏👏👏
    Horse too.
    Yes. Fair play to them both.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,133
    Nigelb said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Wasn't Elphicke a cunning plan to split the Labour Party? She wanted to stand down or was going to lose and obviously didn't like Labour. The Tories just feigned surprise.

    More likely a cunning plan to make us buy Elphicke's memoirs in order to understand quite WTF was her motivation for defecting. Helping Labour or advancing her own career both seem unlikely. Is it a bizarre right wing plot to undermine Rishi Sunak but if so why bother when he will resign anyway after losing January's election?
    From a purely what's in it from her POV, I'd guess she's looking at trying to boost her prospects for post parliamentary employment.
    After all, ex Tory MPs are going to be a greatly devalued commodity fairly soon.

    Whereas someone who can claim some sort of input into (eg) the housing policy of the next government might be of more value.
    Why would any potential employer want someone who’s proven themselves to be utterly disloyal, and when the going got tough decided to run away and dance with someone else?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288

    stodge said:

    Lol, yougov comedy polling continues with a 30 point lead in the Times RedBox poll
    48 18
    Yeah yeah

    What we don't know (unless you do) is how YouGov poll, what weightings do they use, what samplings, do they prompt for all parties?

    As Yes Minister showed, if you want the right answer, you have to ask the right question in the right way.

    A 30-point Labour lead would be a 21.5% swing from last time - Blackpool South was 26%, I suspect there were bigger swings in some of the local contests.

    The dynamics of an election campaign will be very different - there's a general perception the Conservatives will close the gap and everyone runs to 2017 for justification. Other General Elections tell a different story - 2019 didn't show much change (and oddly, YouGov were pretty accurate then but apparently they are "comedy" now), 2010 didn't.

    In 2015, the swing to Cameron occurred in the last week of polling carving out a 6-point lead polls which were essentially tied.
    The safest is IMO to trust sharp sustained movements from the same pollster - whatever the rights and wrongs of their assumptions, they will be comparable from one poll to the next. It's like canvassing returns - on their own they are extremely dubious (people lie from politeness or other reasons, canvassers make guesses, etc.) , but if you recanvass the same people over time, you get a surprisingly accurate picture of what's going on.

    Very good point, Nick.

    It could well be true that YouGov’s methodology is becoming inaccurate for predicting general elections, but the time for addressing that can really only be after the next election. Otherwise they risk both distorting movements in voting intention and still getting it wrong.

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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Not expecting to be around on here much until the GE campaign as I’m very busy at the moment and UK politics is dull to me. Most everyone knows Labour are going to win so we’re all strumming our fingers.

    I don’t think the defection was Starmer’s finest moment but it was tricky for him politically because if he didn’t accept her he could have been wide open to attacks about migrants. This has undermined one of the few remaining attack dog areas left for Sunak.

    All rather ‘meh’ anyway because she’s standing down at the GE.

    What it does show is that Labour are in the business of winning back power. Unlike the Conservatives.

    So you are not going to be on much until January 23rd?

    I like your nuggets of wisdom and your anecdotes. Who else is going to exercise the last remaining PB Tories so early in the mornings?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    JL Partners poll for Campbells podcast Rest is Politics is out

    Lab 41
    Con 26
    Ref 13
    LD 11
    Green 5
    SNP 3
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,288

    148grss said:

    Pronouns "was/were"

    The Scottish Greens have been accused of prioritising ideology over protecting children after the party again refused to endorse an expert report into gender healthcare.

    Patrick Harvie, who until last month was a Scottish government minister, claimed that a Holyrood motion welcoming the Cass Review and recognising it as a “valid scientific document” was not “supportable” by his party....

    All other parties, including the SNP, endorsed Hilary Cass’s report at Holyrood. However, all seven Green MSPs voted against the motion, with Mr Harvie claiming that transgender people were having their “very existence refuted”....

    Brian Whittle, a Tory MSP, asked Mr Harvie whether he would now seek to listen to “alternative experts” on climate change after he refused to accept the findings of Dr Cass, a widely respected consultant paediatrician.

    “You don’t get to choose your experts just to fit your ideology,” Mr Whittle said. “Especially when it’s the health of children at stake.


    https://archive.ph/lDQmx

    The Cass report is not a scientific document - it did not go through peer review, even if it did review some peer reviewed studies. The Cass report is, at best, a policy document written by a healthcare expert and, at worst, a clear attempt to ignore the growing consensus that transgender healthcare, including for young people, is not a threat and has positive impacts. We saw Cass only the other day talking about how "other methods" such as antidepressants, antianxiety medication and therapy "had not been tried" with young people expressing gender dysphoria and wanting to transition which is a) not true and b) beside the point because you can be both trans and depressed at the same time!
    I think there is a big difference between the report itself and the report as filtered through a highly partisan and biased media.
    Well quite. My take on it is very different from that of (eg) Carlotta, but I don't see much mileage in carrying on the argument about it here, having said what I had to say.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    JL Partners poll for Campbells podcast Rest is Politics is out

    Lab 41
    Con 26
    Ref 13
    LD 11
    Green 5
    SNP 3

    No change for Reform from last month, slight up tory (+2) slight down Labour (-1) and Libs pick up one
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,050
    Mr. Pointer, not an area I know much about but the rapid conquest of ancient empires in South America was remarkable.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    To ensure he does win a majority, Starmer will need to ensure he wins over those who voted LD or Independent in the local elections last week
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544
    edited May 9

    JL Partners poll for Campbells podcast Rest is Politics is out

    Lab 41
    Con 26
    Ref 13
    LD 11
    Green 5
    SNP 3

    That means zip without adjustment from the last poll.

    Sorry, I've seen your later post, Tories up, Labour down. Thanks.
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