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Starmer’s big tent politics just keeps getting bigger and bigger – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    SteveSSteveS Posts: 104

    SteveS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version

    Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
    How about ten years from now ?

    Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
    Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.

    I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
    I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming

    You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
    It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
    The car companies will persuade MPs to settle that in their favour in legislation.
    Hmmm I doubt it imagine the headlines from oppositional dailies..."Governement grants autonomous car companies 00 status....licence to kill"
    Liability's also an issue. When (and it will be a 'when') an MCAS_style issue occurs, or when the ML algorithm f**ks up, who is responsible for the deaths? The car owner? The driver? The manufacturer? (*). And as it is a ML system, how easy is it to go back to work out *why* it did what it did - which can be non-trivial in many systems.

    (*) ISTR Volvo have accepted that they will be responsible, but have other manufacturers?
    I think that sort of already exists? The algorithm behind NHS 111 has been approved as a safe medical device for example, so perhaps that sets a precedent.
    IANAE, but isn't NHS 111 a set of questions defined in advance by clinicians, with each answer given by the patient leading to either an action or further questions? A bit like the old choose-your-own-adventure books.

    If that's correct, then it's analogous with 'traditional' programming, with algorithms defined by specifications (in this case, defined by clinicians).

    Whereas ML/AI would work rather differently.
    IANAE either. But I guess the algorithm - like clinicians - will make the occasional ‘mistake’. (Mistake is not the right word - balance of probabilities it’s the right decision, but if there are a million patients then there will be the occasional case where the ‘right” decision leads to the wrong outcome).

    Ditto also AI?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,562
    edited May 8
    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version

    Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
    How about ten years from now ?

    Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
    Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.

    I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
    I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming

    You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
    It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
    Autonomous vehicles have mowed down lots of pedestrians in the US.

    And yet they continue to proliferate (albeit slowly).
    Well the us is used to death, isnt it 30k a year road casualties, plus mass shootings etc
    The last number I saw was 42k deaths on the roads. Guns are 50k per annum.

    The entire Korean War was 36,000 USA servicemen killed.

    It's a third world country with more money.
    Checking the reports from the USA Highways Authority, injury accidents injure 2.5 million people per annum in the USA.

    I can't easily find definitions, so I'd compare it to our total of Serious + Slight, which is around 175,000.

    Comparisons are potentially subject to many systematic factors from USA vehicles being designed to inferior safety standards (see the Tesla Tonka Tank), to miles driven and population density, the USA doing little on the MOT front etc.
  • Options
    SteveSSteveS Posts: 104
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there any Tory MP Labour wouldn't accept as a defector? John Redwood perhaps.

    Liz Truss?
    TBF to some a Lib Dem defection would be harder to accept than a conservative…
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version

    Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
    How about ten years from now ?

    Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
    Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.

    I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
    I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming

    You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
    It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
    Autonomous vehicles have mowed down lots of pedestrians in the US.

    And yet they continue to proliferate (albeit slowly).
    Well the us is used to death, isnt it 30k a year road casualties, plus mass shootings etc
    The last number I saw was 42k deaths on the roads. Guns are 50k per annum.

    The entire Korean War was 36,000 USA servicemen killed.

    It's a third world country with more money.
    It’s a first world country, with second and third world integrated into it.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 8
    Leon said:

    I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower

    Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height

    I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around

    Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal

    I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm

    I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed

    This was my approach to Espinal



    Bravo

    I did a humble 16km today, but it was immensely gratifying. Saw three roe deer (an ancient Italian subspecies here in the gargano) and loads of orchids. Had wild boar for supper with primitivo. Walked into quite a noomy hamlet - with a weird bell tower



    Why the hint of noom? It was all built in the 1930s. So it’s fascist (worship of nature?). I suspect something happened here - also fascism plus ancient pagan forest with primordial trees plus eerie early Christian shrines plus Neolithic remnants =
    noom

    And there is something intensely satisfying about WALKING a long way from your last bed to your next bed, in a different settlement. Nomadic. Also I sorted the boredom problem - audiobooks
    Looks a bit masonic with the three levels, even though Benito banned freemasonry.
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 575
    stodge said:

    PJH said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph

    📈16pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 11 (+1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,267 UK adults, 3-5 May

    (chg 26-28 April)

    Still little change but another slight Reform decline

    Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
    I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
    I'm not - these changes are well within margin of error. Building GE predictions from a point here and there in a poll isn't a serious strategy.

    Apart from one larger sample poll for The Sun at the end of March, Savanta has consistently polled 8-11% for Reform and apart from a couple of polls (one of those the aforementioned large sample poll for The Sun) has had the Conservatives between 25 and 27% - in other words, this poll is nothing new or significant, it's well within the normal polling range for Savanta.

    I'd be more impressed if one of the pollsters such as Redfield & Wilton who show Reform at 12-14% showed them at 9%. Until we see significant movement from a pollster like that, I'll remain unconvinced there is either any significant weakening in Reform's support or a significant move forward in support for the Conservatives who remain becalmed in the mid to upper 20s.
    Based on the Locals, I would say YouGov and R&W et al are well off currently. Savanta are close with this polling. I'm sure 9% of respondents genuinely say they will vote Reform, but when push comes to shove, about half of them won't. We now know based on London that in a forced choice between Lab and Con that Reform got only 3%. Sure, they will do better elsewhere, but come the GE they will be fighting a campaign with no organisation and some unsavoury candidates will be unearthed, and so I think they will end up on 4-5% overall. Most of that missing 4-5% will go back to the Tories, some won't vote of course but they get lost from the figures.

    But even 4-5% is not nothing (significantly better than the Greens' best result) and will have an impact on seats.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    Neuer...
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    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 439
    dixiedean said:

    Lot of comment about SKS thinking.
    Not a great deal about Elphicke's.
    What has gone on there? What's her angle?

    To hasten the end of Sunak.
  • Options
    LDLFLDLF Posts: 149
    edited May 8

    LDLF said:

    Sunak's best hope is that Starmer fumbles as May did in the 2017 campaign, preventing an overwhelming Labour victory. There seem to be a few similarities between Starmer's 2024 Labour and May's 2017 Conservatives - an extremely broad church; a party apparently ready to sweep all before it; MPs (including serial rebels) pledging loyalty to the leader (at least in public); and more than a hint of hubris. All we are missing is a 'Starmer more popular than Churchill' headline somewhere.

    Of course, May's Conservatives still won.. sort of, and so will Starmer. Sunak's best case scenario is a small Labour majority rather than a large one.

    Nevertheless, a coalition of voters this diverse will splinter at some point. May's gradually withered during the long 2017 General Election campaign, but I think Starmer's voter coalition will stay unified and strong ('strong and stable'?) at least until the votes are counted in the next General Election. There is also no guarantee that, when it eventually splinters, this is the benefit of the Conservatives over certain other parties.

    Why must this happen? We all assume Labour will inevitably fail but what if he's PM for a decade?
    The voting coalition being assembled is united in wanting to see the back of this government, but so vast as to be in direct disagreement over various issues and policies. Bits of that voting coalition will inevitably break away when the business of governing begins. You can't have a bonfire of planning regulations, or bring the NHS up-to-date with other countries' health systems, without annoying big interest groups with even bigger mouths.

    Starmer's majority will probably be big enough to withstand these splinters in the middle of a parliament, and new voting coalitions can still be assembled from government (as we have seen with the Conservatives over the last decade). As I said, this may not benefit the Conservatives - and if it doesn't then he could indeed be in for a decade or longer.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    OMG. Absolute scenes.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,562

    OMG. Absolute scenes.

    Not absolute scones?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,951
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    You wait until you hear how people communicated before the telephone was invented…
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    PB managed to stay on the acceptable side of taking the piss.
    Not this congressman.

    You either die a Kennedy with a hole in the brain or live long enough to become a Kennedy with a hole in the brain.
    https://twitter.com/RepMikeCollins/status/1788267912286921193

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,065
    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,065
    Nigelb said:

    PB managed to stay on the acceptable side of taking the piss.
    Not this congressman.

    You either die a Kennedy with a hole in the brain or live long enough to become a Kennedy with a hole in the brain.
    https://twitter.com/RepMikeCollins/status/1788267912286921193

    Feck that's awful.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,999
    edited May 8
    DougSeal said:

    Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.

    https://youtu.be/kv9S50nFo2A?si=OJmJmY6RuTb9hLyU

    "We on PB"?
    It’s a nauseating SKS fawn-fest on this site. I wish a few posters would take a step back and look at him with a more critical eye.
    I often wonder if Charles were still on here, how the vague nasturtiums by his Mum that "SKS is not the sort of guy you should put in charge" would have developed, if at all.

    He made our it was a big insider secret that we would all find out about eventually, but never put any flesh to the bones, so I was never sure if there was anything in it, or whether he lacked a valid attack line so the his Mum thing was something nobody could question.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184

    dixiedean said:

    Lot of comment about SKS thinking.
    Not a great deal about Elphicke's.
    What has gone on there? What's her angle?

    To hasten the end of Sunak.
    Could have joined ReFUK for that. Concerned about future employment prospects and Uncle Kier has promised to 'look after her' I'd say.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Absolute scenes.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    PJH said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph

    📈16pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (-1)
    🌳Con 27 (+1)
    🔶LD 11 (+1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (-1)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,267 UK adults, 3-5 May

    (chg 26-28 April)

    Still little change but another slight Reform decline

    Just six down now on my 33% General Election prediction for Con, and 9% Reform still to melt back to Tory. Easypeasy so far since I made that prediction.
    I'm almost with you. I don't think the Tories will (quite) poll 33, but take 5 from Reform and add to Con and the rest look about right, unless something dramatic happens between now and January 2025.
    January 🙄

    Rishi at the podium in Downing St next Monday morning, at 1037, so it’s time for elevenses with re-election team after 15 minutes explaining how the plan is working, and it’s the only plan around. Once called, watch Labours lead squeezed, a la 2017.

    I’ll be here, on PB, basking in having called it. 4th July. Everyone will be on my working assumption from then. I will own this place.

    I have learnt from TSE how to be magnanimous in such situations.
    There's no time limit for retracting your very embarrassing like of that Charlemagne post BTW
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033
    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184
    Kate Forbes seems to have done well. DFM seems a powerful position.
    Pro_Rata said:

    DougSeal said:

    Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.

    https://youtu.be/kv9S50nFo2A?si=OJmJmY6RuTb9hLyU

    "We on PB"?
    It’s a nauseating SKS fawn-fest on this site. I wish a few posters would take a step back and look at him with a more critical eye.
    I often wonder if Charles were still on here, how the vague nasturtiums by his Mum that "SKS is not the sort of guy you should put in charge" would have developed, if at all.

    He made our it was a big insider secret that we would all find out about eventually, but never put any flesh to the bones, so I was never sure if there was anything in it, or whether he lacked a valid attack line so the his Mum thing was something nobody could question.
    Possibility of beinf fond of the sauce isn't it? That's the impression I got. I'm sure its unconnected but there was a bump with a cyclist where he drove off I recall.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,065

    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
    That's harsh, no one is quite like ETH. Sadly.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,451

    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
    Yes truly bizarre . Once again Bayern implode with minutes to go .
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
    That's harsh, no one is quite like ETH. Sadly.
    Tuchel and Kane at OT next season !!!!!
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Where does RFKJr's voteshare go if he pulls out?
    In 3-way polling it's fallen from ~19% to ~13% since January.
    Who would he back? Biden?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    Donkeys said:

    Where does RFKJr's voteshare go if he pulls out?
    In 3-way polling it's fallen from ~19% to ~13% since January.
    Who would he back? Biden?

    It's difficult to be 100% sure.

    Early on, he was drawing mostly from Biden. Now it seems like he's drawing more from Trump.

    But I don't think he pulls out. I think it's more likely he simply fades into insignificance.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,451
    edited May 8
    The Tories accusing Labour of being a threat to democracy on the front page of the DM !

    Bizarely Labour after losing loads of votes to pro Palestinian independents are being accused of using Gaza to get votes!

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    nico679 said:

    The Tories accusing Labour of being a threat to democracy on the front page of the DM !

    Bizarely Labour after losing loads of votes to pro Palestinian independents are being accused of using Gaza to get votes!

    ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE! :lol:
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    edited May 8
    megasaur said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower

    Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height

    I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around

    Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal

    I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm

    I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed

    This was my approach to Espinal



    .For never, since created man,

    Met such embodied force, as named with these

    Could merit more than that small infantry

    Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood

    Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined

    That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side

    Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds

    In fable or romance of Uther's son

    Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;

    And all who since, baptized or infidel,

    Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,

    Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,

    Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,

    When Charlemain with all his peerage fell

    By Fontarabia.

    My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
    Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
    I said fell, not died, as did Milton, so take it up with him.

    Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
    'Fell' does most certainly mean 'died' in that context, not 'tripped over a discarded hauberk and got a bit muddy'. But I will let our historians such as @ydoethur opine.

    Edit: be genuinely interested to know if I have the meaning wrong. PB is good for that sort of education even at mature ages ...
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,060
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    The point of messages is that they are asynchronous.
    You can answer when you want to, and not have to stop what you are doing because someone else thinks talking to them is the most important thing you could be doing.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    You wait until you hear how people communicated before the telephone was invented…
    And what they say when they get a 'letter' in an 'envelope' with a 'stamp' on it, assuming they haven't had to pay £7 or whatever because the RM can't tell their own stamps apart from the dodgy ones.

    It's usually 'How nice to get a proper letter - so much friendlier'
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,999
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Where does RFKJr's voteshare go if he pulls out?
    In 3-way polling it's fallen from ~19% to ~13% since January.
    Who would he back? Biden?

    It's difficult to be 100% sure.

    Early on, he was drawing mostly from Biden. Now it seems like he's drawing more from Trump.

    But I don't think he pulls out. I think it's more likely he simply fades into insignificance.
    Like Boris Johnson then.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,141
    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower

    Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height

    I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around

    Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal

    I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm

    I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed

    This was my approach to Espinal



    .For never, since created man,

    Met such embodied force, as named with these

    Could merit more than that small infantry

    Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood

    Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined

    That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side

    Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds

    In fable or romance of Uther's son

    Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;

    And all who since, baptized or infidel,

    Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,

    Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,

    Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,

    When Charlemain with all his peerage fell

    By Fontarabia.

    My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
    Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
    I said fell, not died, as did Milton, so take it up with him.

    Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
    'Fell' does most certainly mean 'died' in that context, not 'tripped over a discarded hauberk and got a bit muddy'. But I will let our historians such as @ydoethur opine.

    Edit: be genuinely interested to know if I have the meaning wrong. PB is good for that sort of education even at mature ages ...
    Get your betting tips and literary education in one fell swoop, eh?
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,060
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    You wait until you hear how people communicated before the telephone was invented…
    And what they say when they get a 'letter' in an 'envelope' with a 'stamp' on it, assuming they haven't had to pay £7 or whatever because the RM can't tell their own stamps apart from the dodgy ones.

    It's usually 'How nice to get a proper letter - so much friendlier'
    Hence why political campaigning has turned full circle.
    Pre- around the 1980s hand-addressed envelopes was how parties got literature delivered to people personally.
    Then computers and "mail merge" were all the rage, allowing the automatic printing of sticky address labels.
    Then people got sick of "junk mail".
    So now parties are back to hand-addressing, to maximise the chances of the letters being read.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276
    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    "Today has been one of the most hugely damaging to Labour since the 1980s."

    Never knowingly understated.....

    Not really - Elphicke's defection will be forgotten in a week.

    She's not seeking to be Labour candidate for Dover - Labour have a seemingly good candidate in place and on the current polling will take the seat comfortably.

    Deltapoll a little better for the Conservatives this week but all within Margin of Error - still a 17 point Labour lead and the numbers almost identical to the More In Common poll earlier in the week.

    No obvious sign the local elections have had much impact but early days yet.
    In support of Roger, I think he is disputing MoonRabbit's point that this is the worst day for Labour - not claiming so himself.
    Apologies if I seemed to be claiming it for myself. I thought with that degree of insight and understatement it would be obvious it could only be be the work of PB's esteemed astronomer MoonRabbit
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,451
    Huge outrage amongst some Labour MPs who have dramatically passed on their concerns to Starmers team !

    I mean you just have to shudder !

  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,599
    MoonRabbit - Not important, but FYI The times shown on posts depend on where the post is being read. So, this post will show me a time of 3:03PM, or so, but will -- probably -- appear to you as having been written at just after 11 PM.

    (I'm now in the PDT time.)
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Where does RFKJr's voteshare go if he pulls out?
    In 3-way polling it's fallen from ~19% to ~13% since January.
    Who would he back? Biden?

    It's difficult to be 100% sure.

    Early on, he was drawing mostly from Biden. Now it seems like he's drawing more from Trump.

    But I don't think he pulls out. I think it's more likely he simply fades into insignificance.
    There is also the issue of ballot access. Not being based in America, it is hard to keep count, but last I checked, he had only qualified for election in a handful of states.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower

    Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height

    I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around

    Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal

    I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm

    I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed

    This was my approach to Espinal



    .For never, since created man,

    Met such embodied force, as named with these

    Could merit more than that small infantry

    Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood

    Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined

    That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side

    Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds

    In fable or romance of Uther's son

    Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;

    And all who since, baptized or infidel,

    Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,

    Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,

    Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,

    When Charlemain with all his peerage fell

    By Fontarabia.

    My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
    Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
    I said fell, not died, as did Milton, so take it up with him.

    Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
    'Fell' does most certainly mean 'died' in that context, not 'tripped over a discarded hauberk and got a bit muddy'. But I will let our historians such as @ydoethur opine.

    Edit: be genuinely interested to know if I have the meaning wrong. PB is good for that sort of education even at mature ages ...
    Tripping over a discarded hauberk could have fell consequences, should you fall on something sharp.

    (Or even a discarded Hubert, as autocorrect suggests.)
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    DavidL said:

    Damn. Have to admit that David Gauke is actually spot on about something.

    Is it about caulking? It's just that there's something ineffably Partridgesque about a daytime show on ITV where David Gauke travels around England interviewing locals whilst doing repairs with his caulking gun. Provisional title is "Gaukes Caulkes!". Next week: Mrs Patel in Grimsby and her leaky bath.

    😀😀😀
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Damn. Have to admit that David Gauke is actually spot on about something.

    Is it about caulking? It's just that there's something ineffably Partridgesque about a daytime show on ITV where David Gauke travels around England interviewing locals whilst doing repairs with his caulking gun. Provisional title is "Gaukes Caulkes!". Next week: Mrs Patel in Grimsby and her leaky bath.

    😀😀😀
    Gauke’s caulke walks.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,384
    LDLF said:

    LDLF said:

    Sunak's best hope is that Starmer fumbles as May did in the 2017 campaign, preventing an overwhelming Labour victory. There seem to be a few similarities between Starmer's 2024 Labour and May's 2017 Conservatives - an extremely broad church; a party apparently ready to sweep all before it; MPs (including serial rebels) pledging loyalty to the leader (at least in public); and more than a hint of hubris. All we are missing is a 'Starmer more popular than Churchill' headline somewhere.

    Of course, May's Conservatives still won.. sort of, and so will Starmer. Sunak's best case scenario is a small Labour majority rather than a large one.

    Nevertheless, a coalition of voters this diverse will splinter at some point. May's gradually withered during the long 2017 General Election campaign, but I think Starmer's voter coalition will stay unified and strong ('strong and stable'?) at least until the votes are counted in the next General Election. There is also no guarantee that, when it eventually splinters, this is the benefit of the Conservatives over certain other parties.

    Why must this happen? We all assume Labour will inevitably fail but what if he's PM for a decade?
    The voting coalition being assembled is united in wanting to see the back of this government, but so vast as to be in direct disagreement over various issues and policies. Bits of that voting coalition will inevitably break away when the business of governing begins. You can't have a bonfire of planning regulations, or bring the NHS up-to-date with other countries' health systems, without annoying big interest groups with even bigger mouths.

    Starmer's majority will probably be big enough to withstand these splinters in the middle of a parliament, and new voting coalitions can still be assembled from government (as we have seen with the Conservatives over the last decade). As I said, this may not benefit the Conservatives - and if it doesn't then he could indeed be in for a decade or longer.
    An even simpler way to put it is that the Tories won four elections by (a) leading for best PM and (b) breaking their first-term fall on the feathery LD voter base. The evidence is that these things will keep your government going through crises, wars, stagnant real wages, service cuts, etc.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,599
    edited May 8
    Here's a way to liven up London: "Shireen Rose Shakouri was walking her dog in Northeast Washington [DC]’s Brookland neighborhood on Wednesday morning when she saw what she thought was a large, off-leash dog. As she got closer — and it turned to look at her — she captured a photo of a young black bear walking near 14th and Newton streets NE."
    source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/05/08/bear-sighted-brookland-dc/

    Most of the time black bears, are, at worst, a nuisance. The might, for instance raid a home in suburbia that had a bird feeder they could get to, or a camp site where campers had not protected their food adequately. (In contrast grizzly bears and polar bears are more dangerous to humans.)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    This ad is as bad as the '1984' Apple ad was good.

    Forty years later, same company now casting itself as Big Brother.

    https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1788316493366673483
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446

    Here's a way to liven up London: "Shireen Rose Shakouri was walking her dog in Northeast Washington [DC]’s Brookland neighborhood on Wednesday morning when she saw what she thought was a large, off-leash dog. As she got closer — and it turned to look at her — she captured a photo of a young black bear walking near 14th and Newton streets NE."
    source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/05/08/bear-sighted-brookland-dc/

    Most of the time black bears, are, at worst, a nuisance. The might, for instance raid a home in suburbia that had a bird feeder they could get to, or a camp site where campers had not protected their food adequately. (In contrast grizzly bears and polar bears are more dangerous to humans.)

    Bears are Godless killing machines, as any regular viewer of the Colbert Report will know.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    If your tent gets big enough then people will assume you're running a circus. Still, a sinner that repenteth, and all that. Didn't John Bercow use to be very right wing? Perhaps Elphicke has take the same journey to the sunny side of the ideological street. I say welcome.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    edited May 8
    Any chance Mrs Elphicke could face a recall petition? There seems to be an unusual amount of upset over this defection, on all sides.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,189

    If your tent gets big enough then people will assume you're running a circus. Still, a sinner that repenteth, and all that. Didn't John Bercow use to be very right wing? Perhaps Elphicke has take the same journey to the sunny side of the ideological street. I say welcome.

    She cites the Labour party accepting Brexit and the need to control our borders in her statement, and in response Starmer says he is "proud to lead a changed Labour Party that is back in service of working people".

    If you take it at face value, it's the Labour party that has moved ideologically rather than her.
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    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 439

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
    That's harsh, no one is quite like ETH. Sadly.
    Tuchel and Kane at OT next season !!!!!
    Who cares about crappy old Man U.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,451
    Hard to see what the direction of the current Labour party is , there’s the odd bit of meat for the left , train re-nationalization , the VAT on private schools etc but hardly choice cuts .

    The main economic policy seems to be we’ll miraculously find enough growth to stop more brutal cuts to public services , does anyone believe this ? Reeves seems to be morphing into a Tory tribute act .

    As the Tories desperately clung onto Tees Valley as their comfort blanket , Labours few revenue raising measures are clung onto in similar fashion .

    So desperate are they to not drop the Ming Vase they’ve become petrified of doing or saying anything that’s remotely seen as controversial.

    One can only hope there’s something in the manifesto that sparks a modicum of excitement.

    Maybe eat your greens and do your 5000 steps a day gets them over the line but it’s all just a bit meh !

    I of course want to see the back of the Tories so will hope Labour can win but it’s certainly not 1997, there’s little enthusiasm for Starmer or Labour . Lucky for them there’s a lot of hate for the Tories and a sense that the country needs a change .
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    Master strategist Keir latest
    Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly'
    8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.

    He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.

    It's a loss for Starmer because the entire media narrative has been Elphick's backstory rather than her jumping ship. There are plenty of old school lefties to criticise the move like John McDonnell.

    Maybe this is Starmer's Humza moment.
    Give it a rest, just for one blissful night.

    And it’s ELPHICKE. Take some time off and learn to spell.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172

    Master strategist Keir latest
    Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly'
    8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.

    He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.

    It's a loss for Starmer because the entire media narrative has been Elphick's backstory rather than her jumping ship. There are plenty of old school lefties to criticise the move like John McDonnell.

    Maybe this is Starmer's Humza moment.
    Give it a rest, just for one blissful night.

    And it’s ELPHICKE. Take some time off and learn to spell.
    That's a bit patronising, Bobajob! 😂
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.

    https://youtu.be/kv9S50nFo2A?si=OJmJmY6RuTb9hLyU

    “we on PB” LOL.

    Give it an effing rest and shack up somewhere with Big John Owls.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    Roger said:

    "Today has been one of the most hugely damaging to Labour since the 1980s."

    Never knowingly understated.....

    Not really - Elphicke's defection will be forgotten in a week.

    She's not seeking to be Labour candidate for Dover - Labour have a seemingly good candidate in place and on the current polling will take the seat comfortably.

    Deltapoll a little better for the Conservatives this week but all within Margin of Error - still a 17 point Labour lead and the numbers almost identical to the More In Common poll earlier in the week.

    No obvious sign the local elections have had much impact but early days yet.
    In support of Roger, I think he is disputing MoonRabbit's point that this is the worst day for Labour - not claiming so himself.
    Apologies if I seemed to be claiming it for myself. I thought with that degree of insight and understatement it would be obvious it could only be be the work of PB's esteemed astronomer MoonRabbit
    Space cadet might be more precise
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    If your tent gets big enough then people will assume you're running a circus. Still, a sinner that repenteth, and all that. Didn't John Bercow use to be very right wing? Perhaps Elphicke has take the same journey to the sunny side of the ideological street. I say welcome.

    Yep, people can change their minds. I know lots of people who have. It’s not particularly unusual.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is what you get for having Harry Kane in your side. You win nothing.

    Tuchel following ETH coaching manual taking Kane off at 0 - 1 with plenty of time for Real to score plus possible extra time and penalties
    That's harsh, no one is quite like ETH. Sadly.
    Tuchel and Kane at OT next season !!!!!
    Who cares about crappy old Man U.
    Fair point.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    GIN1138 said:

    Master strategist Keir latest
    Rachael Wearmouth reports Labour MPs telling her 'it has pissed everybody off' 'much wider than the left or Women's PLP' 'It has backfired spectacularly'
    8 hours in. Dumb old Keir.

    He'll have to hide her now. He gets a half day of headlines and has pissed off his own Party.

    It's a loss for Starmer because the entire media narrative has been Elphick's backstory rather than her jumping ship. There are plenty of old school lefties to criticise the move like John McDonnell.

    Maybe this is Starmer's Humza moment.
    Give it a rest, just for one blissful night.

    And it’s ELPHICKE. Take some time off and learn to spell.
    That's a bit patronising, Bobajob! 😂
    Perhaps. But he deserves it, droning on like a broken record that every possible event is bad news for Sir Keir. He is far worse than even the most partisan PB Tories. I don’t know how it came to this with Mexican. One day, something inside him just flipped!
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    EPG said:

    LDLF said:

    LDLF said:

    Sunak's best hope is that Starmer fumbles as May did in the 2017 campaign, preventing an overwhelming Labour victory. There seem to be a few similarities between Starmer's 2024 Labour and May's 2017 Conservatives - an extremely broad church; a party apparently ready to sweep all before it; MPs (including serial rebels) pledging loyalty to the leader (at least in public); and more than a hint of hubris. All we are missing is a 'Starmer more popular than Churchill' headline somewhere.

    Of course, May's Conservatives still won.. sort of, and so will Starmer. Sunak's best case scenario is a small Labour majority rather than a large one.

    Nevertheless, a coalition of voters this diverse will splinter at some point. May's gradually withered during the long 2017 General Election campaign, but I think Starmer's voter coalition will stay unified and strong ('strong and stable'?) at least until the votes are counted in the next General Election. There is also no guarantee that, when it eventually splinters, this is the benefit of the Conservatives over certain other parties.

    Why must this happen? We all assume Labour will inevitably fail but what if he's PM for a decade?
    The voting coalition being assembled is united in wanting to see the back of this government, but so vast as to be in direct disagreement over various issues and policies. Bits of that voting coalition will inevitably break away when the business of governing begins. You can't have a bonfire of planning regulations, or bring the NHS up-to-date with other countries' health systems, without annoying big interest groups with even bigger mouths.

    Starmer's majority will probably be big enough to withstand these splinters in the middle of a parliament, and new voting coalitions can still be assembled from government (as we have seen with the Conservatives over the last decade). As I said, this may not benefit the Conservatives - and if it doesn't then he could indeed be in for a decade or longer.
    An even simpler way to put it is that the Tories won four elections by (a) leading for best PM and (b) breaking their first-term fall on the feathery LD voter base. The evidence is that these things will keep your government going through crises, wars, stagnant real wages, service cuts, etc.
    I suppose the basic point is that providing he gets a decent enough majority and so a relatively free hand, Starmer will only have to show incremental improvements because can legitimately argue the inheritance was terrible, and that look what the other lot did last time.

    There'll no doubt be some insurgency on the left but it'll be highly contingent on events. Given the big point of departure is foreign policy it may have burnt out or been discredited among all but the core by then. Or Starmer may face a decision that lights a fire under it. On Israel/Palestine it seems rather likely lots will have happened by then.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    GIN1138 said:

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
    I think it’s neither genius nor insanity. It’s most likely just classic political opportunism. Natalie had an axe to grind; realised her party were utter clowns; had a bit of a change of heart (it happens) and thought Labour would do better on delivering housing, her hobby horse. If offered the
    defection, you take it.

  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    edited May 8
    GIN1138 said:

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
    As a left winger I think the Elphicke defection is on balance a good more for SKS. The standard response to "Why haven't you stopped the boats?" is "We have a plan, you don't even have a plan" and that's a weak point in Labour's defence. By getting Mrs "Stop the Boats" to endorse SKS's approach over Sunak's plan blunts that attack. Another plus from SKS's point of view is getting the remaining left to moan "You let Elphicke join the PLP but you don't allow Abbott and Corbyn" helps him against any remaining anti-Corbyn attacks.

    Where I don't think that he foresaw was how well it would go down with the women members in the PLP. Rosie Duffield has sounded annoyed on Twitter and there's a lot of unnamed negative sources in news reports. That's eroded some of SKS's political capital, but he's got enough in the bank. No-one serious is going to rock the boat this side of the election.
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    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 8
    nico679 said:

    The Tories accusing Labour of being a threat to democracy on the front page of the DM !

    Bizarely Labour after losing loads of votes to pro Palestinian independents are being accused of using Gaza to get votes!

    It's racist code. It means they're submissive to people who are Jesus-coloured or actually Jesus-coloured themselves.

    It won't surprise me in the slightest if in the general election the Tories scream that Labour is a hotbed of anti-Semitism, and accuse them of caring more about some far-off place with a lot of Jesus-coloured Muslims in it than they do about Britain.

    For those who can't see this: try looking at it backwards. Assume the Tories have won the election. How did they do it? (No need to imagine any meteorite events or life discovered on Mars etc.)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,354
    edited May 8

    GIN1138 said:

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
    I think it’s neither genius nor insanity. It’s most likely just classic political opportunism. Natalie had an axe to grind; realised her party were utter clowns; had a bit of a change of heart (it happens) and thought Labour would do better on delivering housing, her hobby horse. If offered the
    defection, you take it.

    You don't think it was simply a case of believing swapping sides was the best chance for her to retain her seat? I mean these days a 12,000 majority is practically a marginal if you are a Tory MP.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446

    If your tent gets big enough then people will assume you're running a circus. Still, a sinner that repenteth, and all that. Didn't John Bercow use to be very right wing? Perhaps Elphicke has take the same journey to the sunny side of the ideological street. I say welcome.

    She cites the Labour party accepting Brexit and the need to control our borders in her statement, and in response Starmer says he is "proud to lead a changed Labour Party that is back in service of working people".

    If you take it at face value, it's the Labour party that has moved ideologically rather than her.
    Perhaps they've met in the middle.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738

    GIN1138 said:

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
    I think it’s neither genius nor insanity. It’s most likely just classic political opportunism. Natalie had an axe to grind; realised her party were utter clowns; had a bit of a change of heart (it happens) and thought Labour would do better on delivering housing, her hobby horse. If offered the
    defection, you take it.

    You don't think it was simply a case of believing swapping sides was the best chance for her to retain her seat? I mean these days a 12,000 majority is practically a marginal if you are a Tory MP.
    She's standing down.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276
    Nigelb said:

    This ad is as bad as the '1984' Apple ad was good.

    Forty years later, same company now casting itself as Big Brother.

    https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1788316493366673483

    Maybe Ridley wasn't available!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    edited May 9
    The defection will be forgotten in a weeks time, like the other defection of another MP stepping down (I can't even remember his name). Maybe Labour have quite a few of these lined up and will just keep dripping them out every few weeks, to reinforce the message. Although, I think the British public don't need much convincing.

    In my mind, its not a proper mic drop defection unless you do it in the middle of an parliament cycle / are going to be staying on and stating you will be fighting your seat. Shaun Woodward comes to mind as one of those.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    What a ridiculous situation.

    Former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane has claimed he was debanked like Nigel Farage after being refused an account because of his “political” connections.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/08/i-was-debanked-like-nigel-farage-says-ex-bank-of-england/
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Where does RFKJr's voteshare go if he pulls out?
    In 3-way polling it's fallen from ~19% to ~13% since January.
    Who would he back? Biden?

    It's difficult to be 100% sure.

    Early on, he was drawing mostly from Biden. Now it seems like he's drawing more from Trump.

    But I don't think he pulls out. I think it's more likely he simply fades into insignificance.
    There is also the issue of ballot access. Not being based in America, it is hard to keep count, but last I checked, he had only qualified for election in a handful of states.
    Personally think that RFKjr will likely be on the ballot in EVERY state, IF he stays in POTUS24 race, which IMHO is also likely.

    Check out current status & details via wiki:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr._2024_presidential_campaign

    While as yet he's only on ballot in 4 states, with access reported as pending in 4 more, plus "automatic write-in" status (presumably all write-in votes for POTUS must be tallied) in 8 others, that does NOT mean the process is over or precluded in other states.

    For example, in WA State to qualify for the November 2024 ballot, minor party and/or independent POTUS candidates are only required to submit 1,000 valid signatures from state voters, during a window from now through end of July.

    Heck, I could manage THAT on my own. However, am NOT planning to be brandishing my clipboard for RFK, Jr. anytime soon!

    NOTE that the wiki page cited says there are 4 states where RFKjr petition effort was "rejected or withdrawn". However, note that further legal action pending in Nevada, while in Arizona, Georgia & South Carolina his campaign is relaunching petitioning, again for legal reasons.

    Specifically, sigs in these three were gathered by RFKjr's "superpac" which is a no-no. In Nevada, the secretary of state's office reported told campaign there was no need to specify a VP running mate, which turned out to be incorrect. My guess is that state or federal court(s) will order him on the ballot as matter of equity to him AND citizens who signed his petition.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    GIN1138 said:

    I see we are back to to lengthy posts of utter wishcasting drivel on PB - once a respectable betting site. You’d think last week was a lesson learned. But no.

    Look, we get it. You're a Labour supporter and until 2022 you've been bereft of any good news for like 16 years, but that doesn't mean Keir shouldn't be subjected to any scrutiny.

    I'm unsure if the defection he's orchestrated is genius or a complete **** up. Either scenario is possible, or perhaps it's neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things but all possibilities are worthy of debate, surely?
    I think it’s neither genius nor insanity. It’s most likely just classic political opportunism. Natalie had an axe to grind; realised her party were utter clowns; had a bit of a change of heart (it happens) and thought Labour would do better on delivering housing, her hobby horse. If offered the
    defection, you take it.

    You don't think it was simply a case of believing swapping sides was the best chance for her to retain her seat? I mean these days a 12,000 majority is practically a marginal if you are a Tory MP.
    Labour already has a candidate for her seat, and she ain't it.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276
    edited May 9
    A lecture to Israel against apartheid from South Africa

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-hX1xPZmNo

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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,267
    Pro_Rata said:

    DougSeal said:

    Has everyone seen this? See the Kuenssberg vitriol, she despises Starmer more than we on PB do. With the BBC editorial on Team Tory, Starmer has his work cut out to win anything.

    https://youtu.be/kv9S50nFo2A?si=OJmJmY6RuTb9hLyU

    "We on PB"?
    It’s a nauseating SKS fawn-fest on this site. I wish a few posters would take a step back and look at him with a more critical eye.
    I often wonder if Charles were still on here, how the vague nasturtiums by his Mum that "SKS is not the sort of guy you should put in charge" would have developed, if at all.

    He made our it was a big insider secret that we would all find out about eventually, but never put any flesh to the bones, so I was never sure if there was anything in it, or whether he lacked a valid attack line so the his Mum thing was something nobody could question.
    IIRC wasn’t it basically that every decision was political / he triangulated on everything? So she didn’t like him as a colleague and partner and felt he lacked vision.

    Difficult to say that assessment is completely wrong!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    SteveS said:

    SteveS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I think my next car will be a plug-in hybrid, but only because they no longer sell the non-hybrid version

    Well that's hardly surprising. I will never have a hybrid nor an electric car unless I am priced out fuel. I won't be or very much doubt i will be driving in 2050.
    How about ten years from now ?

    Though you'll possibly be driven by, rather than driving a car.
    Oh dear, don't make the same mistake Leon did. Over a decade ago, he said all truck drivers would be out of a job in ten years. He was hilariously wrong.

    I am very bearish on autonomous driving - at least in the level-5 category, which is the really useful one. We're nowhere near it yet for most purposes, despite what Musky Baby says.
    I was over-optimistic about self driving. I am always over-optimistic - but I wasn’t wrong. It is coming

    You entirely dismissed the idea we would have reliable machine translation. lol
    It really isnt coming for the simple reason the first time an autonomous car mows down a pedestrian it will be halted and in the courts for 5 or 6 decades deciding who's fault it is.
    The car companies will persuade MPs to settle that in their favour in legislation.
    Hmmm I doubt it imagine the headlines from oppositional dailies..."Governement grants autonomous car companies 00 status....licence to kill"
    Liability's also an issue. When (and it will be a 'when') an MCAS_style issue occurs, or when the ML algorithm f**ks up, who is responsible for the deaths? The car owner? The driver? The manufacturer? (*). And as it is a ML system, how easy is it to go back to work out *why* it did what it did - which can be non-trivial in many systems.

    (*) ISTR Volvo have accepted that they will be responsible, but have other manufacturers?
    I think that sort of already exists? The algorithm behind NHS 111 has been approved as a safe medical device for example, so perhaps that sets a precedent.
    IANAE, but isn't NHS 111 a set of questions defined in advance by clinicians, with each answer given by the patient leading to either an action or further questions? A bit like the old choose-your-own-adventure books.

    If that's correct, then it's analogous with 'traditional' programming, with algorithms defined by specifications (in this case, defined by clinicians).

    Whereas ML/AI would work rather differently.
    IANAE either. But I guess the algorithm - like clinicians - will make the occasional ‘mistake’. (Mistake is not the right word - balance of probabilities it’s the right decision, but if there are a million patients then there will be the occasional case where the ‘right” decision leads to the wrong outcome).

    Ditto also AI?
    The differences are that the algorithm has been developed by experts, including clinicians, and the questions and algorithm are well defined and understood - so if there are problems with misdiagnosing, it will be relatively easy to see why the wrong answer was got to.

    With ML/AI (and please, this is really ML, not AI), lots will depend on the training dataset, and how the responses the patient gives 'trigger' the ML system. And it may not be possible to go back and see how a certain decision/endpoint was reached.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    SKS won't give a flying f**k who criticises him for Natalie Elphicke's defection. In fact, it helps him, because it will make ordinary voters in marginals like hers that Labour has moved massively to the Right on immigration and will be even more hardline on it than the Tories.

    Of course, that's all bollocks, and she's been bought but my oh my it's a brilliant political move by him; it risks skewering one of Rishi's last significant dividing lines.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there any Tory MP Labour wouldn't accept as a defector? John Redwood perhaps.

    SKS would take anyone.

    Any. One.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    It's a commitment.

    You don't know how long the call will be and you have to respond to points and emotions in real-time.

    Some find that a burden, and draining - even though I agree with you.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Roger said:

    Good question by Cathy Newman. "What does it tell you about Keir Starmer's Labour Party that you can find a place for Natalie Elphicke but not Diane Abbott"

    It tells you that Keir Starmer's Labour Party is playing to win.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463

    Andy_JS said:

    Is there any Tory MP Labour wouldn't accept as a defector? John Redwood perhaps.

    SKS would take anyone.

    Any. One.
    Yes, none of you are safe…
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    It's a commitment.

    You don't know how long the call will be and you have to respond to points and emotions in real-time.

    Some find that a burden, and draining - even though I agree with you.
    There’s the convenience aspect. Playing phone tag is tedious; a text gets there even if the person at the other end is busy.

    FWIW, I’ve always disliked talking over the phone rather than talking to someone face to face.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Let go Brandon.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/05/08/freedomworks-is-closing-and-blaming-trump-00156784
    FreedomWorks, the once-swaggering conservative organization that helped turn tea party protesters into a national political force, is shutting down, according to its president, a casualty of the ideological split in a Republican Party dominated by former President Donald Trump.

    “We’re dissolved,” said the group’s president, Adam Brandon. “It’s effective immediately.”..
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    gonatasgonatas Posts: 14

    Roger said:

    Good question by Cathy Newman. "What does it tell you about Keir Starmer's Labour Party that you can find a place for Natalie Elphicke but not Diane Abbott"

    It tells you that Keir Starmer's Labour Party is playing to win.
    That is a good answer.
    The deed having been done I doubt that the new comrade's name will be mentioned again by the Labour Front bench.
    If questions are being asked what does it tell you about the Natural Party of Government (tm)?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769

    What a ridiculous situation.

    Former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane has claimed he was debanked like Nigel Farage after being refused an account because of his “political” connections.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/08/i-was-debanked-like-nigel-farage-says-ex-bank-of-england/

    The rules on PCPs (politically connected persons) are absurd, and they particularly affect people of modest wealth. (Like Farage and Haldene, while barely affecting - say - Russian oligarchs.)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance Mrs Elphicke could face a recall petition? There seems to be an unusual amount of upset over this defection, on all sides.

    No crime committed. No suspension from parliament. Therefore no recall possible.

    Personally, I would have a pretty decent bar - say one in five voters - but allow recalls at any time. This would mean that, should someone cross the floor, a recall is far from impossible. (I would, obviously, allow a recalled MP to stand in the ensuing byelection.)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance Mrs Elphicke could face a recall petition? There seems to be an unusual amount of upset over this defection, on all sides.

    No crime committed. No suspension from parliament. Therefore no recall possible.

    Personally, I would have a pretty decent bar - say one in five voters - but allow recalls at any time. This would mean that, should someone cross the floor, a recall is far from impossible. (I would, obviously, allow a recalled MP to stand in the ensuing byelection.)
    Why do you think the MPs amended the Recall Bill to include the suspension provision, that wasn’t in the original version?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    Carnyx said:

    megasaur said:

    I had a slow start this morning. I spent a bit too long in the very comfortable bed, and then far too long in the massage shower

    Omfg, normal showers will never be good enough again. This shower was seven showers in one. There was a really good normal, overhead shower, and then three smaller showers spraying powerfully from each side at roughly knee, waist and chest height

    I normally spend five minutes in the shower. Today it must have been fifteen. It did feel quite like a massage as I slowly turned around and around

    Even though I ended up setting off late, I was still expecting to easily reach Roncesvalles, the usual first day target for the Camino. The place was fully booked, so I took the nice looking room 5km closer, in Espinal

    I was a bit disappointed then that I was only doing a short, 34km walk today. But thank god. I don't think I could have made it to Roncesvalles, I forgot about the climbing today, and didn't get to Espinal until after 8pm

    I've just had a big steak, little sweet red peppers and chips for dinner. When I've finished my glass of wine, I'm heading for bed

    This was my approach to Espinal



    .For never, since created man,

    Met such embodied force, as named with these

    Could merit more than that small infantry

    Warred on by cranes, though all the giant brood

    Of Phlegra with the heroic race were joined

    That fought at Thebes and Ilium, on each side

    Mixed with auxiliar gods; and what resounds

    In fable or romance of Uther's son

    Begirt with British and Armoric knights ;

    And all who since, baptized or infidel,

    Jousted in Aspramont, or Montalban,

    Damasco, or Morocco, or Trebisond,

    Or whom Biserta sent from Afric shore,

    When Charlemain with all his peerage fell

    By Fontarabia.

    My point being, Charlemagne with all his peerage fell at Roncesvalles, and Milton knew that perfectly well. Just imagine being so good at poetry that you can afford to pass over a name as magical as Roncesvalles for metrical reasons.
    Er, Charlemagne didn't die at Roncesvalles. Wrong Frank Syndrome, perhaps?
    I said fell, not died, as did Milton, so take it up with him.

    Battle of Roncevaux 778, most memorable date ever Christmas day 800 when Charles gets crowned HRE by the Pope, so we know he got through.
    'Fell' does most certainly mean 'died' in that context, not 'tripped over a discarded hauberk and got a bit muddy'. But I will let our historians such as @ydoethur opine.

    Edit: be genuinely interested to know if I have the meaning wrong. PB is good for that sort of education even at mature ages ...
    @Carnyx

    You're right. 'Fallen' in the context of a battle means 'killed.'
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    It's a commitment.

    You don't know how long the call will be and you have to respond to points and emotions in real-time.

    Some find that a burden, and draining - even though I agree with you.
    There’s the convenience aspect. Playing phone tag is tedious; a text gets there even if the person at the other end is busy.

    FWIW, I’ve always disliked talking over the phone rather than talking to someone face to face.
    It's also very helpful for those of us with hearing loss.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Proof that I don't understand other people at all is the fact that most people have seemingly decided that they prefer to communicate with each other via text messages of one kind or another, rather than hearing each others voices on the phone, as in a traditional phone call. It's so much more friendly to hear a voice than read a message, yet that's what people have decided they prefer. Totally bizarre.

    It's a commitment.

    You don't know how long the call will be and you have to respond to points and emotions in real-time.

    Some find that a burden, and draining - even though I agree with you.
    Several other points:
    A message does not have to be in real time, and allows you to think about what you're saying.
    I find that I'm increasingly talking about things I've seen and read on t'Internet, and it's easier to send links.
    People can read - and respond - at leisure. A phone call might be interrupting them at an inconvenient time.

    OTOH, talking to friends is wonderful.
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,371
    Lots of complaints in Germany about the decision to give offside just before Bayern 'scored' at the end, and claims that officials are always biased towards Real Madrid.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    Another night, another Russian fuel depot that “went on fire”.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1788371813904384123?s=61

    This one in Yurovka, close to the Crimea bridge on the Russian side.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,340
    On the Elphicke defection... Where were the Conservative whips in all this? If they knew, it was their job to try and keep her on board. If they didn't, it was their job to know.

    (Maybe they did know, maybe they tried to keep her on board. But what we've seen of Conservative man-management has been pretty hopeless for a while, at least back to Johnson. And whilst he could run the show on the basis of personal rizz and being a winner, Rishi can't.)
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    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,588
    ‘No downsides’…

    In a major report last month the Nuffield Trust thinktank warned that drug shortages had become a “new normal” and were being worsened by Brexit.

    Mark Dayan, its Brexit programme lead, said: “Nearly every available indicator shows that since 2021 we have experienced a once unthinkable level of medicines shortages again and again. The crisis jumps between products and conditions, with no sign of slowing down.”

    While other western countries such as Italy and Germany were also being hit by disruptions to supply, “Brexit creates some extra obstacles for the UK because our market is now partly separated from the wider European pool of supplies,” Dayan added.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/may/09/medicine-shortages-in-england-beyond-critical-pharmacists-warn

    England’s rivers are likely to remain in a poor state for years to come because the government is failing to put in place EU clean water laws post-Brexit, the watchdog has found.

    When Britain was a member of the EU, the government was required to follow the water framework directive (WFD), standards for waterways that have been credited with cleaning up Europe’s dirty water.

    Since Brexit, the UK is no longer required to match EU regulations, and has its own watchdog, the Office for Environmental Protection (OEP).


    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/englands-rivers-to-remain-in-poor-state-as-eu-laws-ignored-post-brexit-says-watchdog
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    But he'll always be a member.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    Cyclists of PB: I just tried bibshorts... And wow, so comfortable.

    Obviously I won't be photographed in them. But still. Wow.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance Mrs Elphicke could face a recall petition? There seems to be an unusual amount of upset over this defection, on all sides.

    No crime committed. No suspension from parliament. Therefore no recall possible.

    Personally, I would have a pretty decent bar - say one in five voters - but allow recalls at any time. This would mean that, should someone cross the floor, a recall is far from impossible. (I would, obviously, allow a recalled MP to stand in the ensuing byelection.)
    Why do you think the MPs amended the Recall Bill to include the suspension provision, that wasn’t in the original version?
    Nick Clegg, whose original proposal it was, wanted a wider ranging provision, for voters unhappy with their MP, until it began to dawn on him that he would likely be the first customer for the provision.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,496
    And there was MUCH rejoicing
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081

    SKS won't give a flying f**k who criticises him for Natalie Elphicke's defection. In fact, it helps him, because it will make ordinary voters in marginals like hers that Labour has moved massively to the Right on immigration and will be even more hardline on it than the Tories.

    Of course, that's all bollocks, and she's been bought but my oh my it's a brilliant political move by him; it risks skewering one of Rishi's last significant dividing lines.

    The fact that she’s the MP for the seat most affected by the boats that Rishi can’t stop coming will have been particularly attractive
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclists of PB: I just tried bibshorts... And wow, so comfortable.

    Obviously I won't be photographed in them. But still. Wow.

    I've not had the courage to go bibshorts yet.

    Do you wear a shirt over the top, or do you let the bib show? ;)
This discussion has been closed.