I am very much in this camp. I have no interest in the Tories doing well, I don't particularly like or dislike Khan, know almost nothing about Hall and of course I don't live in London so have no immediate stake in the game. But I do love to see a good political upset.
Still don't think it will happen though.
The lolz I was looking forward to were Hall having to actually perform as Mayor
I am very much in this camp. I have no interest in the Tories doing well, I don't particularly like or dislike Khan, know almost nothing about Hall and of course I don't live in London so have no immediate stake in the game. But I do love to see a good political upset.
Still don't think it will happen though.
The lolz I was looking forward to were Hall having to actually perform as Mayor
As I say I know nothing about her and my generally poor view of all politicians means nothing much would surprise me.
Reasons to still feel nervous if you’re a Khan supporter.
The ID rules and voting system change .
Both are drags on the Labour vote and what’s been underplayed is possible effects of the tragic events .
The fieldwork for the Savanta poll is more likely to have included a decent proportion of responses to that . This happens to be the poll with just a 10 point Labour lead .
The YouGov which had that 22 point lead for Labour stated in the write up that the vast majority of their fieldwork was done 24 to 27 April .
In terms of today ordinarily as the constituency results come in you’d be able to have a direct comparison , we don’t have that.
The betting markets might become very volatile depending on the order in which those are released.
For political junkies which I think is most of us in here we have an added day of excitement to enjoy !
People keep going on about the ID rules and change in voting system. The same applies to every other mayoral and PCC race, yet every one of those has shown a swing to Labour, except one PCC race and the swing against Labour there wouldn’t be enough to unseat Khan. Why should the ID rules and move to FPTP be so much more problematic for Labour in London than anywhere else in England and Wales?
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
I refer you to my standard rant about how the ruling classes do not know the working classes, do not care about them, and are so focussed on metrics like growth that they ignore the people.
Somebody else pointed out that the process known as "enshittification" is happening to the UK. Having encouraged inward investment to the point of selling off the land to the Qatar is, they now have to extract so much value per year to those foreign investors as to make the country progressively worse.
It's not even a party issue. All parties have been wildly pro-immigration even when the average voter could sense it was storing up grave problems: the wisdom of crowds. The Tories are arguably WORSE, they talk tough but allow record immigration. Nor is it even a British issue, the same problems can be found across the West
Data from Denmark and Holland shows that most migrants are a net drain on the host society, the idea they are a plus is a myth. A number of high skilled migrants, yes, none of the others
"Dutch study: immigration costs state €17 billion per year"
Just logged onto Betfair and I'm being offered £200 cash-out on my Susan Hall bet, so she must still be in with a chance today according to punters. Considered cashing out yesterday but decided not to. (Probably regret it).
Margaret Thatcher was, and maybe remains, intolerable to a very large chunk of the country. Possibly near or over 50% at one point. But that doesn't matter, if you have the profound loyalty of another large minority, who will stick with you: she did. Now she is acclaimed as one of our greatest prime ministers ever, even by the people that cannot tolerate her
You must have a coherent plan, and stick with it, and you need that praetorian guard of willing followers who will fend off the attacks. See the plan through. Mend the country
Both Mao and Mussolini made the same point. You can transform a nation if you have just a few thousand willing to die for the case, against the complacent masses. That's true of revolutions, but in democratic politics you need a few MILLION voters, who fiercely believe in you
Thatcher did it by 1. winning in the Falklands, 2, selling council houses (creating those loyal voters who loved her), 3. producing obvious economic growth, faster than our competitors
There is no point in trying to reproduce 1. But 2 is achievable, and hopefully it will lead to 3. So the new Tories need an iconic transformative policy aimed at the ordinary working family, NOT fecking pensioners. Then they will win again, and maybe do better
Housing would be a good area to focus on
The Conservatives will need to do broadly that. Problem for them Starmer is already in that space.
The ‘process’ for the London mayor count is absurd, moronic, embarrassing. Two days after voting and still not a single vote counted. How on Earth did we end up with the most pathetic counting regime in the country?
I am very much in this camp. I have no interest in the Tories doing well, I don't particularly like or dislike Khan, know almost nothing about Hall and of course I don't live in London so have no immediate stake in the game. But I do love to see a good political upset.
Still don't think it will happen though.
The lolz I was looking forward to were Hall having to actually perform as Mayor
The news bulletin on R4 started “The Tories are bracing themselves…” and my hungover broken brain wanted it to continue “for Susan Hall being elected mayor of London”.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
I refer you to my standard rant about how the ruling classes do not know the working classes, do not care about them, and are so focussed on metrics like growth that they ignore the people.
Somebody else pointed out that the process known as "enshittification" is happening to the UK. Having encouraged inward investment to the point of selling off the land to the Qatar is, they now have to extract so much value per year to those foreign investors as to make the country progressively worse.
It's not even a party issue. All parties have been wildly pro-immigration even when the average voter could sense it was storing up grave problems: the wisdom of crowds. The Tories are arguably WORSE, they talk tough but allow record immigration. Nor is it even a British issue, the same problems can be found across the West
Data from Denmark and Holland shows that most migrants are a net drain on the host society, the idea they are a plus is a myth. A number of high skilled migrants, yes, none of the others
"Dutch study: immigration costs state €17 billion per year"
I'm sure the NHS would be going swimmingly without any migration. Or any of the other groups you like to come on here and call undesirables. Like black people in Hammersmith.
(1) SkyBet paid out on Houchen bet at 2/7 (2) Hills bet at 7/4 on Street (now all greened up) (3) Exchange Khan / Hall - profit either way now, but balance on Hall in 3 figures (4) Ladbrokes Khan bet share in 35-40% range - odds on
I stand to make over £400 profit at the moment
Well done; sensible to have laid off on Hall. In the end it wasn’t a value bet, but a trading bet.
Thanks. The two aren't mutually exclusive. A value bet provides opportunities for trading, which is why it's value.
I still await to see with interest how close it is later today.
Well, the object is different, I’d suggest, and they are separate concepts which whilst not mutually exclusive also don’t necessarily overlap.
A value bet is, as you described earlier, one in which even though you lose more often than you win, the odds make it attractive in the long run. The poker analogy being betting a flush draw at low stake, where the payouts when your suit card comes up more than cover the losses when it doesn’t. The trick there is correctly assessing low probability events, and it remains my view that Hall was never a value bet from that perspective.
A trading bet is one that stands to lose, but where you anticipate a narrowing at some point before the result is declared, so you can lay off at a profit. The object is not to be holding the bet at the end, in contrast to the above. Elections with a clear front runner but where there is a delayed count are perhaps ideally suited to such opportunities, given the febrile atmosphere and tendency for thin rumours to gain fast traction, and that may be a learning point from this contest with useful application going forward?
It's a view we all have to come to based on our own research but I think Hall was value when I laid Khan at 1.03 because her chances were always higher than 3%. That was just too low.
But even if her true chances were only, say, 15% then that made her value at that price.
You then have choices to trade or hold.
If the market moved in her direction based on turnout data, leaks and early results then, of course, you could then trade out at a profit.
If it looked like she'd run him even closer then you could hold it and trade out for an even higher price, or, once greened up, let it run all the way if you think there's a chance of a major upset.
Her true chances were always much lower than 15%. I think they were lower than 3%.
Consider: out of all the elections held on Thursday, how many saw the Conservatives *gain* a seat? A tiny handful, less than 1%. And that’s before you even get to the extensive polling in London.
But it’s great that you’ve made money on trading bets.
Yes, but that's nonsense, isn't it?
If she runs the election close that's evidence enough in and of itself, but with anti-ULEZ, anti-Gaza, general anti-Khan malaise and only a 5% margin of victory last time (with a FPTP voting system this time) its absurd to suggest her chances were so low.
What people are telegraphing here is they really don't like her at all, or want her to win, so don't want to give any other narrative other than she's a totally hopeless cause lest it give her some momentum.
We see similar with Trump posts on here and you should absolutely never bet like that.
Why is that nonsense? The overriding factor in this round of elections is the very large, national Con->Lab swing since 2021. You can’t just pretend that hasn’t happened. You then look at what happened in 2021 in a contest. What that means is that we would expect Lab/Con contests won by Labour last time to be won by Labour again and any changes to be Tory seats falling to Labour.
We have more than enough results now to test this hypothesis. We’ve had >2000 results, which the largest chunk being Lab/Con contests. What do we see? Almost every Lab/Con contest won by Labour last time has been held by Labour. There have been at least 2 Con gains, but that’s a tiny proportion. The Conservatives gaining from Labour is clearly very, very, very unlikely.
That’s my baseline. Conservatives won’t win seats from Labour. But, sure, there are other factors to consider.
There’s a change in the voting system. However, no London mayoral election has ever been determined by second preferences. Khan last time, and the time before, won on first preferences and with second preferences. So, that doesn’t suggest FPTP will matter much. Indeed, if anything, I would guess FPTP harms Hall more because of the rise in Reform UK support.
Anti-ULEZ malaise? The test of that is the Uxbridge by-election, which saw a 6.7% swing to Labour. Add a 6.7% swing to Labour on the 2021 result and you get… oh, a large Khan win. And ULEZ has certainly become less of an issue since then.
Gaza? Sure, that could hurt Khan, although it won’t mean votes going to Hall, and Khan being Muslim himself and Hall’s Islamophobia could be factors that reduce any Gaza effect.
And then we have the polling! The polling ranges from a massive Khan victory to a small Khan victory. The polls were off last time, overestimating the Labour vote, but the polls were pretty accurate in prior mayoral contests. Even if you take the 2021 polling error and apply it to the 2024 polls, Khan wins.
So, for Hall to win, you need a greater polling error than ever before, *and* you need the national swing to Labour to go in reverse. Given that, I think your estimate of a 15% chance for Hall to win is ludicrous. Estimating unlikely things gets difficult, so maybe you can make a case that she’s got a 3% chance, but I don’t see it.
The main reason Jeremy Corbyn almost became Prime Minister in 2017 was because there were two terrorist outrages during the election campaign itself, and Theresa May had cut the police.
If there is an upset in the Mayoral election, look to the 14-year-old boy, Daniel Anjorin, murdered by an apparently mad swordsman in Hainault on Tuesday.
The ‘process’ for the London mayor count is absurd, moronic, embarrassing. Two days after voting and still not a single vote counted. How on Earth did we end up with the most pathetic counting regime in the country?
The ‘process’ for the London mayor count is absurd, moronic, embarrassing. Two days after voting and still not a single vote counted. How on Earth did we end up with the most pathetic counting regime in the country?
It used to be an electronic count now it’s manual. Also we’re not getting data by ward because of that . At this rate they’ll be moving ballots from the wards with a horse and cart !
Margaret Thatcher was, and maybe remains, intolerable to a very large chunk of the country. Possibly near or over 50% at one point. But that doesn't matter, if you have the profound loyalty of another large minority, who will stick with you: she did. Now she is acclaimed as one of our greatest prime ministers ever, even by the people that cannot tolerate her
You must have a coherent plan, and stick with it, and you need that praetorian guard of willing followers who will fend off the attacks. See the plan through. Mend the country
Both Mao and Mussolini made the same point. You can transform a nation if you have just a few thousand willing to die for the case, against the complacent masses. That's true of revolutions, but in democratic politics you need a few MILLION voters, who fiercely believe in you
Thatcher did it by 1. winning in the Falklands, 2, selling council houses (creating those loyal voters who loved her), 3. producing obvious economic growth, faster than our competitors
There is no point in trying to reproduce 1. But 2 is achievable, and hopefully it will lead to 3. So the new Tories need an iconic transformative policy aimed at the ordinary working family, NOT fecking pensioners. Then they will win again, and maybe do better
Housing would be a good area to focus on
Trouble is, what's left to give away?
The right to buy discounts made sense socially- the large estates of social housing were a mistake. But they were also (as the Bird and Fortune sketch put it about tax cuts) "a shameless bribe... but a bloody good one."
Right To Buy was a colossal giveaway, but not one that can be repeated. Indeed RTB set the seed for the Tories current problems. It gifted housing wealth to people who are now pensioners or BTL landlords or both. Neither want to redistribute wealth to the young, or to gift them housing.
There is a desperate need for cheap, quality housing for young families, particularly near where good jobs are. That requires a mass building programme by the public sector, the direct opposite of RTB.
I am very much in this camp. I have no interest in the Tories doing well, I don't particularly like or dislike Khan, know almost nothing about Hall and of course I don't live in London so have no immediate stake in the game. But I do love to see a good political upset.
Still don't think it will happen though.
The lolz I was looking forward to were Hall having to actually perform as Mayor
It will be interesting to see if Susan Hall really can, as she has pledged, cut hundreds of millions of pounds of wasted spending in order to fund her own policies. My guess would be no.
The ‘process’ for the London mayor count is absurd, moronic, embarrassing. Two days after voting and still not a single vote counted. How on Earth did we end up with the most pathetic counting regime in the country?
At the Brexit referendum every vote in the UK was counted within 9 hours of the polls closing. Cornwall was the final decaration at 7am.
This is my Brexit running totals spreadsheet which includes declaration times.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
I refer you to my standard rant about how the ruling classes do not know the working classes, do not care about them, and are so focussed on metrics like growth that they ignore the people.
Somebody else pointed out that the process known as "enshittification" is happening to the UK. Having encouraged inward investment to the point of selling off the land to the Qatar is, they now have to extract so much value per year to those foreign investors as to make the country progressively worse.
It's not even a party issue. All parties have been wildly pro-immigration even when the average voter could sense it was storing up grave problems: the wisdom of crowds. The Tories are arguably WORSE, they talk tough but allow record immigration. Nor is it even a British issue, the same problems can be found across the West
Data from Denmark and Holland shows that most migrants are a net drain on the host society, the idea they are a plus is a myth. A number of high skilled migrants, yes, none of the others
"Dutch study: immigration costs state €17 billion per year"
I'm sure the NHS would be going swimmingly without any migration. Or any of the other groups you like to come on here and call undesirables. Like black people in Hammersmith.
I didn't call them that, and nothing like it. I reported verbatim the story of one Australian girl and her sister, following on from @Chameleon's quite shocking personal account. I didn't begin the conversation
Migration brings some major advantages but it also brings dramatic problems, there is no point in denying it any more, and the minuses can no longer be dismissed with cries of "racist" - as you are now doing
Look at that Conservativehome article. If it is halfway true we are ensuring a disaster with our absurdly lax migration policies. It's just the maths and the money
Congratulations on your calling of the local election results.
What you got for Newmarket this afternoon?
I believe the late Graham Rock once opined he never had a bet on the flat until Royal Ascot and that's probably sound advice.
The 2000 Guineas is simple enough - if CITY OF TROY is the horse he was last year and Coolmore seem to think he is, he'll win and 8/13 will look a steal. The form of Ballydoyle is a concern but they often start slowly but I can't forget all the hype around AUGUSTE RODIN this time last year and how that turned out.
ROSALLION is the obvious alternative and 6s is an each way bet to nothing. The two among the outsiders for me are ALYNAABI but he's drifted to 20s and Craven winner HAATEM at 28s and the latter would be my bet if we could nick £20 from @TSE's shoe funds (he won't miss it) and I'd have a tenner each way.
I like the look of real Dream in the 4:10 at Newm. City of Troy certainly looks like Guineas winner.
In some ways Hall winning would be good for Starmer to show the moronic @bigjohnowls types what happens if you throw your toys out of the pram
Won't make a difference. They'll just blame him anyway.
I'm reminded of the time Misbah-ul-Haq was made captain of the Pakistan ODI team and faced a storm of criticism every match from the fans. There was a wonderfully acid commentary on Cricinfo:
Misbah's real problem - and it is a problem without a solution - is that he is not Afridi. The populist adoration for Afridi - for his charisma, his talent and his aura - is boundless. Misbah, with his more prosaic qualities of reliability, calm and consistency, is overshadowed by comparison. While logic might back Misbah, emotions are with Afridi.
When Afridi drops a batting glove a nation stoops to pick it up. When Afridi fails with the bat - and, unpalatable though it will be to Pakistan supporters, he fails with the bat rather too often - a nation mourns his ill fortune. When Misbah scores 50, a nation frowns upon the slow pace at which he scored it. Misbah could invent a cure for cancer and someone will claim that Afridi would have done it with more panache.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
The ‘process’ for the London mayor count is absurd, moronic, embarrassing. Two days after voting and still not a single vote counted. How on Earth did we end up with the most pathetic counting regime in the country?
At the Brexit referendum every vote in the UK was counted within 9 hours of the polls closing. Cornwall was the final decaration at 7am.
This is my Brexit running totals spreadsheet which includes declaration times.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
I refer you to my standard rant about how the ruling classes do not know the working classes, do not care about them, and are so focussed on metrics like growth that they ignore the people.
Somebody else pointed out that the process known as "enshittification" is happening to the UK. Having encouraged inward investment to the point of selling off the land to the Qatar is, they now have to extract so much value per year to those foreign investors as to make the country progressively worse.
It's not even a party issue. All parties have been wildly pro-immigration even when the average voter could sense it was storing up grave problems: the wisdom of crowds. The Tories are arguably WORSE, they talk tough but allow record immigration. Nor is it even a British issue, the same problems can be found across the West
Data from Denmark and Holland shows that most migrants are a net drain on the host society, the idea they are a plus is a myth. A number of high skilled migrants, yes, none of the others
"Dutch study: immigration costs state €17 billion per year"
I'm sure the NHS would be going swimmingly without any migration. Or any of the other groups you like to come on here and call undesirables. Like black people in Hammersmith.
I didn't call them that, and nothing like it. I reported verbatim the story of one Australian girl and her sister, following on from @Chameleon's quite shocking personal account. I didn't begin the conversation
Migration brings some major advantages but it also brings dramatic problems, there is no point in denying it any more, and the minuses can no longer be dismissed with cries of "racist" - as you are now doing
Look at that Conservativehome article. If it is halfway true we are ensuring a disaster with our absurdly lax migration policies. It's just the maths and the money
The UK Treasury figures when the UK was in the EU showed EU nationals a net positive for the treasury and non EU a negative.
The latter based on a range of factors , non EU more likely to be bring family members as one of those , more likely to claim benefits .
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.
This is key.
The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?
If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.
Why do I say that?
Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.
This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?
Every sign so far is that they're much more likely to repeat the experience of Labour post-1979 and post-2010, and the Tories post-1997 and play to the base first. In their case, the pressure from Reform will add to the desire for comfort-zone politics. It'll probably take about 3 defeats for them to track back to the centre. But it may not happen at all. They're not guaranteed to survive in their current form.
Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
Crudely, the crossroads the Conservatives are at has a path labelled Street and a path labelled Badenoch. They don't have to be mutually exclusive, but they probably are in practice.
Personally, I think one of them works electorally and the other one doesn't, though I'm just a random on the internet.
Question is, how much time will the Conservatives waste on the Badenoch path before concluding that it's a dead end? And will someone else have occupied the Street patch by the time that whatever's left of the Conservatives decide they want to explore it?
I think I agree with Casino that a winning pitch from the Tories is to move on from the arguments that currently split the party, and move onto thinking about answers for the the new problems. It's not 2007 and inheritance tax is not an important issue. Move on.
But. In terms of positioning I think there's an extent to which a party does have to secure its base before it can march back towards the centre. The one example of a major British party being supplanted that we have involved that party being outflanked to the extreme. The Tories might have to see off the challenge from Farage before they can think of talking to centrist voters again.
Agree with the approach of securing the base but the remaining Tory base are the Cameroons.
The Tories best bet now is write off the next election and prepare for opposition. The pitch would be "Vote for us to hold Starmer to account", which gives people a reason to vote for them. Changing leaders would also make sense given they will need to do that after the election anyway.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
I am at Charles De Gaule airport. They are preventing me from entering France. I am supposed to speak at the French Senate today. They say the Germans put a 1 year ban on my entry to Europe.
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
Margaret Thatcher was, and maybe remains, intolerable to a very large chunk of the country. Possibly near or over 50% at one point. But that doesn't matter, if you have the profound loyalty of another large minority, who will stick with you: she did. Now she is acclaimed as one of our greatest prime ministers ever, even by the people that cannot tolerate her
You must have a coherent plan, and stick with it, and you need that praetorian guard of willing followers who will fend off the attacks. See the plan through. Mend the country
Both Mao and Mussolini made the same point. You can transform a nation if you have just a few thousand willing to die for the case, against the complacent masses. That's true of revolutions, but in democratic politics you need a few MILLION voters, who fiercely believe in you
Thatcher did it by 1. winning in the Falklands, 2, selling council houses (creating those loyal voters who loved her), 3. producing obvious economic growth, faster than our competitors
There is no point in trying to reproduce 1. But 2 is achievable, and hopefully it will lead to 3. So the new Tories need an iconic transformative policy aimed at the ordinary working family, NOT fecking pensioners. Then they will win again, and maybe do better
Housing would be a good area to focus on
Trouble is, what's left to give away?
The right to buy discounts made sense socially- the large estates of social housing were a mistake. But they were also (as the Bird and Fortune sketch put it about tax cuts) "a shameless bribe... but a bloody good one."
Right To Buy was a colossal giveaway, but not one that can be repeated. Indeed RTB set the seed for the Tories current problems. It gifted housing wealth to people who are now pensioners or BTL landlords or both. Neither want to redistribute wealth to the young, or to gift them housing.
There is a desperate need for cheap, quality housing for young families, particularly near where good jobs are. That requires a mass building programme by the public sector, the direct opposite of RTB.
Something like 40% of the homes sold under Right to Buy are now in the private rental market.
Over the last 10 years, the Conservatives have increased the number of tenants, landlords, outright owners and second home owners. Unfortunately for them, they also screwed what remains of the mortgage-owning cohort with TRUSS.
They have spawned millions of new Labour voters:
2011-2021, E&W Population +6.3% Households +6.1% Dwellings +8.2%
Mortgage owned -5.1% Own outright +12.5% Rent +28.2%
A quick thought - nobody was predicting Uxbridge as a hold until the recount news dropped from memory? London is very capable of jaw dislocation
I think one or two people may have been predicting a Tory hold, but of course that may have been based on guessing and hoping rather than anything solid.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
British AI Inc. has already been flogged off to the yanks. Or in more sober terms, Google bought DeepMind. We need to find a way of protecting British assets whilst also funding and nurturing them.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
A quick thought - nobody was predicting Uxbridge as a hold until the recount news dropped from memory? London is very capable of jaw dislocation
I think one or two people may have been predicting a Tory hold, but of course that may have been based on guessing and hoping rather than anything solid.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
We need a British ai. For countless reasons. Create one, and ensure that all public bodies end any work with Chatgpt and others and work with the new one. Every tech-company and their wife seems to have an ai candidate; it can't be that difficult.
British AI Inc. has already been flogged off to the yanks. Or in more sober terms, Google bought DeepMind. We need to find a way of protecting British assets whilst also funding and nurturing them.
Sure. And now that's gone. So a new one must come forward. And Government contracts must be contingent upon the output that the ai provides continuing to be UK-optimised. It makes sense to me to have that be British-owned and operated, but that's less important. If Google wants to make the necessary service available, so be it. This would do more for preserving our culture and identity than any number of 'Academies Britannique', and there would be money to be made doing it. It should be a priority of DCMS and the Business Department.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
I've been reading some Culture books recently, it puts me right off the very concept of AI it paints such an unintentionally nightmarish vision.
I didn't find the AI aspects of the Culture novels particularly nightmarish
I find it to be very dystopian, the citizens of the Culture (usually not the protagonists who if Culture are a little unorthodox) seem to presented as directionless and artificially blissed out until they get bored and die, whilst under the heel of benevolent but hypocritical Minds who have a supremely patronising attitude to anything not in their society as they aggressively control things.
I prefer the Polity because the people within are still presented as happy but the AIs are more self aware about being messed up.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
"We trained a robot dog to balance and walk on top of a yoga ball purely in simulation, and then transfer zero-shot to the real world. No fine-tuning. Just works.
I’m excited to announce DrEureka, an LLM agent that writes code to train robot skills in simulation, and writes more code to bridge the difficult simulation-reality gap. It fully automates the pipeline from new skill learning to real-world deployment. "
This is a LLM (an AI like GPT4) teaching a robot how to do really difficult physical things, with a zero shot "just do it" approach and all via simulation, No human robotics experts are needed
Robotics is exploding as fast as AI, we will realistically have robots able to do some of the most difficult human, physical tasks - like nursing care etc - within 5 years, 10 at most. Probably nearer 5
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
Conservatives retain control of Epping Forest council with a 2 seat majority, one of only 3 Conservative majority councils now left in Essex along with Harlow and Braintree
Knives - cook's knives. Youngest is turning into a very good cook and has asked - as a birthday present - for a decent set of chef's knives.
Recommendations welcome! TIA.
Conventional answer is to go Japanese, but I'd recommend Mercer. I bought a bread knife and a veg knife a couple of years ago and they are both excellent, and quite a bit cheaper than the Japanese brands.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
I've been reading some Culture books recently, it puts me right off the very concept of AI it paints such an unintentionally nightmarish vision.
I didn't find the AI aspects of the Culture novels particularly nightmarish
I find it to be very dystopian, the citizens of the Culture (usually not the protagonists who if Culture are a little unorthodox) seem to presented as directionless and artificially blissed out until they get bored and die, whilst under the heel of benevolent but hypocritical Minds who have a supremely patronising attitude to anything not in their society as they aggressively control things.
I prefer the Polity because the people within are still presented as happy but the AIs are more self aware about being messed up.
But now, the movies.
Bradford city costs of ≈ £6.5K per child are mental. They are being utterly ripped off. They would be better setting up own care home system.
At minimum wage (which drives the entire care industry as it is basically all about people doing tasks) that is over 3 staff 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, working full time on each child.
Insane.
Obviously there are some costs for building, energy, food etc.
But still insane.
No way do these places have that level of staffing,
Caveat: New Addington is the sort of place that Hall-ism is going to appeal. Doubly distant from That There London (outer Croydon, which is a schlep from the city) and hit harder by ULEZ. See also Harold Hill and Rainham on this side of the river. (Though Croydon has a tram, which is more than Havering has.)
That doesn't help if Hall's doughnut is only the outer bits of the outer boroughs.
Another reason why immigration needs, in essence, to end
I found this extraordinarily bleak account on Conservative Home, giving one reason why so many councils are going bust
"The Children’s Social Care system is in many cities and larger towns collapsing, in large part as a disastrous consequence of the broken Immigration system...
"I was recently stunned to the point of initial disbelief during a conversation with a friend during which he mentioned that a child placed in residential care costs the average local council roughly £5,500 per week and rapidly rising. I was equally taken aback when he stated that in large cities, anywhere between 40 per cent and 60 per cent (and rising) of the children being placed in these expensive placements are children whose mothers are immigrants."
"Bradford Council reports that its average current cost per child residential placement, is at the time of writing £6,498 per week, £337,896 per year, which dwarfs the £4,258 per month, £51,100 per year cost of housing adult immigrants in nice hotels etc. The immigrant child in care is costing more than six adult immigrants in a hotel and the public don’t even know about the scale of it.
"Sadly, the number of immigrant children in care is rising at shocking rates in major cities throughout the country. Using Bradford Council as an example again, in the 2017-18 Municipal Year, there were 42 children in external care placements, but this had risen to 214 by the end of 2023 at a combined cost at least £65 million to £75 million over the period.
"With each increase of three children in care placements coming in at a cool £1 million per year, dozens of councils will become effectively bankrupt in a couple of years or so unless there is an urgent, serious intervention."
The Tories thought it was a wizard idea to import 1.4m people in 2 years. Labour thought it would be amusing to "rub the noses of the right in diversity"
And here we are
We’re fucked as a nation. Not just because of this.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
We REALLY need that AI revolution. Indeed, the world needs it
I've been reading some Culture books recently, it puts me right off the very concept of AI it paints such an unintentionally nightmarish vision.
I didn't find the AI aspects of the Culture novels particularly nightmarish
I find it to be very dystopian, the citizens of the Culture (usually not the protagonists who if Culture are a little unorthodox) seem to presented as directionless and artificially blissed out until they get bored and die, whilst under the heel of benevolent but hypocritical Minds who have a supremely patronising attitude to anything not in their society as they aggressively control things.
I prefer the Polity because the people within are still presented as happy but the AIs are more self aware about being messed up.
But now, the movies.
When Elon Musk is asked (and he is asked, constantly) what the world will be like post AI Singularity (which he expects around 2030) he says: Like the Iain Banks' Culture books
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
It's a pathology, and it is killing us
Those of us who live in immigrant-repellant shitholes (which by the numbers include Scotland and the south west) are just counting our blessings.
Knives - cook's knives. Youngest is turning into a very good cook and has asked - as a birthday present - for a decent set of chef's knives.
Recommendations welcome! TIA.
Conventional answer is to go Japanese, but I'd recommend Mercer. I bought a bread knife and a veg knife a couple of years ago and they are both excellent, and quite a bit cheaper than the Japanese brands.
Ms Free
My experience suggests it is better to buy one very good knife than a whole set.
If you buy it in a stoe, be ready for security questions.
Over 50% counted in the London mayoral election . The results won’t be announced until the other election counts are also finished but I would think we’ll get leaks before that .
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
We are governed by a caste of virtue-signalling eunuchs who wish us evil. It is hard to conclude anything else
The man has about 20 serious convictions including "assaulting a motorist with a hammer" and the judge says "I am glad you have leave to remain, as an asylum seeker"
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
I hope you’re right . Hall is a dreadful candidate .
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
There was quite an interesting slot in the always good From Our Own Correspondent just now about how for the first time European countries are seeing Jewish asylum seekers from Israel, Portugal in this case. Amongst all the other poison Bibi has spread, he’s certainly done damage to the notion of Israel as a safe haven for the world’s Jews.
Over 50% counted in the London mayoral election . The results won’t be announced until the other election counts are also finished but I would think we’ll get leaks before that .
Conservatives retain control of Epping Forest council with a 2 seat majority, one of only 3 Conservative majority councils now left in Essex along with Harlow and Braintree
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
Indeed they might. Unexpected by pollheads anyway.
What's happening in the universities is important, and yes, spring is the time for it. This is why I think there might be an early general election, before the universities break up or not long after.
There's a parallelogram of forces as usual. I think the Tories want to whip up trouble on the campuses so they can win votes by encouraging Islamophobia and racism off the back of it. They would love to say that pro-Palestinian protestors (show non-white faces in the footage) have stopped your children from getting their degrees, because they're unBritishly angry (show scuffles with the police) about some faraway place with a "Z" in its name that ordinary hardworking Brits aren't interested in. (Show sobbing 21-year-old: "I worked so hard for my degree and had a firm offer of employment, but I don't know what I'm going to do now". Cut to newsreaders and experts competing for the prize for having used the word "Hamas" the most times.)
"Israel's PR is going down the toilet". I said at the time of the murder of Muhammad al-Durrah that the Israelis and their supporters would never allow such exposure again. But the attempt to frame the October 2023 Gaza breakout as "7/10", up there in the firmament with 9/11, seems to have fallen flat on its face. The question is the extent to which they can and will say ID(GA)F in these changing times. They've already got away with murdering 30000 civilians and no permanent member of the UNSC or EU member has yet said publicly "If you assault Rafah, we'll back the genocide case at the ICJ and impose sanctions".
Ireland doesn't seem to be talking about intervening in the ICJ case any more since Varadkar unexpectedly resigned.
Not sure about those neo-Guardianistas though. They're not a demographic known for courage or focus.
BDS as a matter of urgency should be the focus for anti-racists.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
We are governed by a caste of virtue-signalling eunuchs who wish us evil. It is hard to conclude anything else
The man has about 20 serious convictions including "assaulting a motorist with a hammer" and the judge says "I am glad you have leave to remain, as an asylum seeker"
We all love a hostage to fortune prediction you can mock me for mercilessly so here is one
Workers Party of Britain will exceed 750,000 votes in the upcoming GE (was very tempted to say a million but I think some way short)
You want to offer some odds?
I do not. One because I have no idea what would be reasonable and two because I'll just leave it as a sage or fool prediction for readers to enjoy, scoff or dismiss at their leisure. I only do very small for fun betting generally and usually at individual constituency level. My thinking FWIW is the 33 WPB candidates generally did very well (for a minor party) and Galloway has the capacity to capture a section of very disillusioned voters and anti war campaigners. This would be heavily amplified if Rafah is being levelled in a GE campaign or shortly before
I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Khan's price moving in quite quickly now (edit: and so is Street's) with non-trivial amounts staked - and by now there will be a lot of reports from the counts. I think he'll (they'll) be OK.
1.07 Sadiq so punters are still not sure. The market is not even back to where it was before the Hall hype.
I am very much in this camp. I have no interest in the Tories doing well, I don't particularly like or dislike Khan, know almost nothing about Hall and of course I don't live in London so have no immediate stake in the game. But I do love to see a good political upset.
Still don't think it will happen though.
The lolz I was looking forward to were Hall having to actually perform as Mayor
It will be interesting to see if Susan Hall really can, as she has pledged, cut hundreds of millions of pounds of wasted spending in order to fund her own policies. My guess would be no.
As with every tier of local government, Whitehall doubles the statutory duties of local councils and then cuts the block grant that forms the bulk of Council funding and forbids councils to raise Council tax or fund from other sources. The result: bankruptcy of councils and the forces creation of new Chimera councils like Chester and West Cheshire without any reference to local needs or opinions.
Setting councils free and allowing them to innovate carries risks, but none worse than the centralised reality of our current system. BTW its just as bad in Scotland, where the SNP is as controlling and centralising as any Whitehall Mandarin.
Is the PB herd wheeling around and preparing to stampede in a different direction?
I think Khan will win in London. But London is being bigged up across the country in a ramp-up of Islamophobia, xenophobia, and racism. Many who live in London are unaware of what London connotes for many people who don't. This is practically an open goal for the rightwing.
As someone who lives in London, the issue isn't all perception. Crime is just ridiculous there days - in the past 16 months the church by my corner shop had a drive by shooting, I then moved and have been mugged, missed an acid attack by 5 minutes, been broken into, and my housemate had a death threat/hate crime attack against him. My experience isn't massively unrepresentative (bar the drive by shooting). Most people don't report a lot of minor crimes (bike theft/phone snatching) etc anymore. Outside of that homophobia is clearly increasing as an issue due to high rates of immigration from backwards places leading to semi-regular attacks on LGBTQ venues, and every Saturday blatant anti-semitism shuts down central London. Bar that London is great.
Worse to come as they pack in more and more.
And yet 86% of PB-ers refuse to accept it, or even talk about it, and those that do talk about it get called "racist" for their pains
The police and judges are the same as the government , anyone can stay here , no matter how many or what crimes they commit. Country is absolutely F**ked.
What a master stroke from Kevin Spacey to defend himself against further accusations of being a creepy groper by doing an interview with Dan Wootton. Genius!
Conservatives retain control of Epping Forest council with a 2 seat majority, one of only 3 Conservative majority councils now left in Essex along with Harlow and Braintree
So will Con or LD get 2nd place? Warrington in 2021 was 11 Con and 9 LD in the old council. North Tyneside was 7 Con and 0 LD in the old council. Stroud was 20 Con and 3 LD in the old council, Salford was 8 Con and 2 LD in the old council.
According to BBC in Stroud, Con are 3 (-5) and LD 0 (+0).
So remaining maybe 18 Con wins, 17 LD wins, to make the final 518-524?
Comments
"We're not expecting a result until at least 17:00 BST but it could be hours later than that, especially if it is a close race".
Data from Denmark and Holland shows that most migrants are a net drain on the host society, the idea they are a plus is a myth. A number of high skilled migrants, yes, none of the others
"Dutch study: immigration costs state €17 billion per year"
https://unherd.com/newsroom/dutch-study-immigration-costs-state-e17-billion-per-year/
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
If there is an upset in the Mayoral election, look to the 14-year-old boy, Daniel Anjorin, murdered by an apparently mad swordsman in Hainault on Tuesday.
This is my Brexit running totals spreadsheet which includes declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VYrXgM147B-pm6NgN_MrqVxc42KUrJOoudur8jVqKAY/edit?pli=1#gid=0
Migration brings some major advantages but it also brings dramatic problems, there is no point in denying it any more, and the minuses can no longer be dismissed with cries of "racist" - as you are now doing
Look at that Conservativehome article. If it is halfway true we are ensuring a disaster with our absurdly lax migration policies. It's just the maths and the money
35% to 40% is favourite, albeit market is very illiquid.
Misbah's real problem - and it is a problem without a solution - is that he is not Afridi. The populist adoration for Afridi - for his charisma, his talent and his aura - is boundless. Misbah, with his more prosaic qualities of reliability, calm and consistency, is overshadowed by comparison. While logic might back Misbah, emotions are with Afridi.
When Afridi drops a batting glove a nation stoops to pick it up. When Afridi fails with the bat - and, unpalatable though it will be to Pakistan supporters, he fails with the bat rather too often - a nation mourns his ill fortune. When Misbah scores 50, a nation frowns upon the slow pace at which he scored it. Misbah could invent a cure for cancer and someone will claim that Afridi would have done it with more panache.
I'm sure Starmer can relate.
Productivity is low and the productive side of the economy is going to be milked more and more to fund the non productive side while suffering poorer terms and conditions and pensions.
Labour is the party of the public sector so expect the productivity gap to widen. We a
already have ONS staff threatening storied action for having to spend some time in the office.
https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1786322484100276379?s=61
Edit: AV avoids anyone's toys having to leave prams of course.
Workers Party of Britain will exceed 750,000 votes in the upcoming GE (was very tempted to say a million but I think some way short)
The latter based on a range of factors , non EU more likely to be bring family members as one of those , more likely to claim benefits .
The Tories best bet now is write off the next election and prepare for opposition. The pitch would be "Vote for us to hold Starmer to account", which gives people a reason to vote for them. Changing leaders would also make sense given they will need to do that after the election anyway.
None of this will happen of course.
It's a pathology, and it is killing us
London is very capable of jaw dislocation
"In the Mayoral election, our tallying suggested that Susan Hall got a bigger share of the votes (about 73%) in New Addington than in Sanderstead."
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1481865/thread
https://x.com/ghassanabusitt1/status/1786673587673239605
I am at Charles De Gaule airport. They are preventing me from entering France. I am supposed to speak at the French Senate today. They say the Germans put a 1 year ban on my entry to Europe.
Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.
Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.
The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.
Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"
He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.
Over the last 10 years, the Conservatives have increased the number of tenants, landlords, outright owners and second home owners. Unfortunately for them, they also screwed what remains of the mortgage-owning cohort with TRUSS.
They have spawned millions of new Labour voters:
2011-2021, E&W
Population +6.3%
Households +6.1%
Dwellings +8.2%
Mortgage owned -5.1%
Own outright +12.5%
Rent +28.2%
https://x.com/mailonline/status/1786444759524860392?s=61
I prefer the Polity because the people within are still presented as happy but the AIs are more self aware about being messed up.
But now, the movies.
https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/1786429467537088741
"We trained a robot dog to balance and walk on top of a yoga ball purely in simulation, and then transfer zero-shot to the real world. No fine-tuning. Just works.
I’m excited to announce DrEureka, an LLM agent that writes code to train robot skills in simulation, and writes more code to bridge the difficult simulation-reality gap. It fully automates the pipeline from new skill learning to real-world deployment. "
This is a LLM (an AI like GPT4) teaching a robot how to do really difficult physical things, with a zero shot "just do it" approach and all via simulation, No human robotics experts are needed
Robotics is exploding as fast as AI, we will realistically have robots able to do some of the most difficult human, physical tasks - like nursing care etc - within 5 years, 10 at most. Probably nearer 5
Knives - cook's knives. Youngest is turning into a very good cook and has asked - as a birthday present - for a decent set of chef's knives.
Recommendations welcome! TIA.
https://x.com/eefnews/status/1786704722545492331
At minimum wage (which drives the entire care industry as it is basically all about people doing tasks) that is over 3 staff 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, working full time on each child.
Insane.
Obviously there are some costs for building, energy, food etc.
But still insane.
No way do these places have that level of staffing,
Caveat: New Addington is the sort of place that Hall-ism is going to appeal. Doubly distant from That There London (outer Croydon, which is a schlep from the city) and hit harder by ULEZ. See also Harold Hill and Rainham on this side of the river. (Though Croydon has a tram, which is more than Havering has.)
That doesn't help if Hall's doughnut is only the outer bits of the outer boroughs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_(tools)
Buy from Amazon not a physical shop. Knives have huge markups due to the requirement for display cases, shop space, and staff attention.
And throw in one of these:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Diamond-Edge-Knife-Sharpener-World/dp/B09LZ7CBDS/
In the bag then, lol
https://www.globalknives.uk/sets-c105/global-m5
My experience suggests it is better to buy one very good knife than a whole set.
If you buy it in a stoe, be ready for security questions.
Confidence growing in Labour says Twitter
The man has about 20 serious convictions including "assaulting a motorist with a hammer" and the judge says "I am glad you have leave to remain, as an asylum seeker"
The speed at which London is counting is deeply frustrating.
What's happening in the universities is important, and yes, spring is the time for it. This is why I think there might be an early general election, before the universities break up or not long after.
There's a parallelogram of forces as usual. I think the Tories want to whip up trouble on the campuses so they can win votes by encouraging Islamophobia and racism off the back of it. They would love to say that pro-Palestinian protestors (show non-white faces in the footage) have stopped your children from getting their degrees, because they're unBritishly angry (show scuffles with the police) about some faraway place with a "Z" in its name that ordinary hardworking Brits aren't interested in. (Show sobbing 21-year-old: "I worked so hard for my degree and had a firm offer of employment, but I don't know what I'm going to do now". Cut to newsreaders and experts competing for the prize for having used the word "Hamas" the most times.)
"Israel's PR is going down the toilet". I said at the time of the murder of Muhammad al-Durrah that the Israelis and their supporters would never allow such exposure again. But the attempt to frame the October 2023 Gaza breakout as "7/10", up there in the firmament with 9/11, seems to have fallen flat on its face. The question is the extent to which they can and will say ID(GA)F in these changing times. They've already got away with murdering 30000 civilians and no permanent member of the UNSC or EU member has yet said publicly "If you assault Rafah, we'll back the genocide case at the ICJ and impose sanctions".
Ireland doesn't seem to be talking about intervening in the ICJ case any more since Varadkar unexpectedly resigned.
Not sure about those neo-Guardianistas though. They're not a demographic known for courage or focus.
BDS as a matter of urgency should be the focus for anti-racists.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/05/miami-pre-qualifying-2024.html
My thinking FWIW is the 33 WPB candidates generally did very well (for a minor party) and Galloway has the capacity to capture a section of very disillusioned voters and anti war campaigners. This would be heavily amplified if Rafah is being levelled in a GE campaign or shortly before
Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
Setting councils free and allowing them to innovate carries risks, but none worse than the centralised reality of our current system. BTW its just as bad in Scotland, where the SNP is as controlling and centralising as any Whitehall Mandarin.
Warrington in 2021 was 11 Con and 9 LD in the old council.
North Tyneside was 7 Con and 0 LD in the old council.
Stroud was 20 Con and 3 LD in the old council,
Salford was 8 Con and 2 LD in the old council.
According to BBC in Stroud, Con are 3 (-5) and LD 0 (+0).
So remaining maybe 18 Con wins, 17 LD wins, to make the final 518-524?