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Is Sadiq Khan Lon-done? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 12 in General
Is Sadiq Khan Lon-done? – politicalbetting.com

The correlation between ‘going slightly mad reading London turnout data’ and ‘having been up half the night’ feels quite strong on election Twitter

Read the full story here

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    TresTres Posts: 2,275
    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    Lon-done?

    What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.

    Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    Poor Sadiq gets blamed for Israelis killing Palestinians and Palestinians killing Israelis, not getting the Met under control and not giving the Met free rein to get the criminals off our street. Not to mention TFL going nearly bankrupt during a pandemic when people were told to stay at home and also for increasing charges for road users to help restore TFL finances.

    Its a tough gig this one.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Lon-done?

    What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.

    Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.

    I know you're being gently ironical at your own expense, and we all appreciate how you've stepped in after Mike had to call it a day. But I do find the constant flow of puns and Shakespeare increasingly off-putting, to the point of visiting the site less. I feel like a killjoy but... might you dial it down a bit?
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    When do we expect a result? 1.30pm according to PA, which seems oddly specific.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Online is obviously a big place, but in terms of relevance here I don't recall a single poster being positive about Hall, let alone a fan club. There are plenty who would vote for her because she is a Tory and plenty more who would vote for her as she is not Khan.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493
    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
    I doubt it’s anything quite so organised, it’s more likely the excitable nature of activists who are barely out of short trousers.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024
    Eabhal said:

    When do we expect a result? 1.30pm according to PA, which seems oddly specific.

    Local BBC news yesterday said it would be coming around early evening. But that does seem exceptionally slow.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Online is obviously a big place, but in terms of relevance here I don't recall a single poster being positive about Hall, let alone a fan club. There are plenty who would vote for her because she is a Tory and plenty more who would vote for her as she is not Khan.
    Her campaign has almost solely focused on Khan's so-called war on the motorist. For a city in which the majority of people depend on efficient public transport that does seem an odd approach.

    But not long now before we know whether or not it's worked.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493

    ToryJim said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
    I doubt it’s anything quite so organised, it’s more likely the excitable nature of activists who are barely out of short trousers.
    Lest we forget what campaign sources were saying at this stage in 2021;

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    It's what campaign sources do, and it's why it's cruel to make them wait so long for the actual results.
    Indeed, nature abhors a vacuum etc. Possibly explains the government’s deep malaise too, moral vacuum that they are.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    ToryJim said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
    I doubt it’s anything quite so organised, it’s more likely the excitable nature of activists who are barely out of short trousers.
    Lest we forget what campaign sources were saying at this stage in 2021;

    I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541

    It's what campaign sources do, and it's why it's cruel to make them wait so long for the actual results.
    Just updated the thread header with that Tweet.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024
    edited May 4
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Whereabouts are you, if you don't mind me asking? I live in Royal Wharf, West Silvertown - and absolutely no sign of tellers/ canvassers from any party either.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Whereabouts are you, if you don't mind me asking? I live in Royal Wharf, West Silvertown - and absolutely no sign of tellers/ canvassers from any party either.
    East Ham so also in the glorious London Borough of Newham.

    The Tunnel looks to be progressing.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,024
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Whereabouts are you, if you don't mind me asking? I live in Royal Wharf, West Silvertown - and absolutely no sign of tellers/ canvassers from any party either.
    East Ham so also in the glorious London Borough of Newham.

    The Tunnel looks to be progressing.
    Ha! Still just looks like huge mounds of earth. But I'm sure it'll be very nice when it's finished.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,633
    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    edited May 4
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Yes, my feeling is that Khan will win on a low share as Hall will get an even lower share, and 30% or so going to the rest despite FPTP.

    As I posted at the end of last thread Khan will be hurt by the generalised anti-incumbent feeling, but we need to balance that with the generalised anti Tory feeling. Worth noting that a pretty universal outcome in yesterday's results is a substantial swing against the Conservatives, 17% or so against in Teesside. There would have to be a swing against Labour for Hall to win, and I just can't see that. Not that I have any particular knowledge as not often in the Smoke nowadays.

    Thanks for your threads on the Locals. Very interesting and prescient. It looks like Starmer gets a comfortable if not rampant win in the GE
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Whereabouts are you, if you don't mind me asking? I live in Royal Wharf, West Silvertown - and absolutely no sign of tellers/ canvassers from any party either.
    East Ham so also in the glorious London Borough of Newham.

    The Tunnel looks to be progressing.
    Any thoughts on the proposed £5.25 one way, £10.50 round trips to use the tunnel? Living in Southwark imagining Rotherhite is going to be a persistent nightmare.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 863
    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    A plan? Just one? Come on, Truss has a plan, Badenoch another, Patel probably has several, Farage more of a plot than a plan, Rishi, err, ok maybe not.
  • Options
    agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 88
    Why does it take so long to complete a count for one place in an FPTP election.

    Of course elections for a single post should use Extended AV, where the elector can vote against candidates, placing outcomes, elected or not elected, in order of preference.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Reasons to still feel nervous if you’re a Khan supporter.

    The ID rules and voting system change .

    Both are drags on the Labour vote and what’s been underplayed is possible effects of the tragic events .

    The fieldwork for the Savanta poll is more likely to have included a decent proportion of responses to that . This happens to be the poll with just a 10 point Labour lead .

    The YouGov which had that 22 point lead for Labour stated in the write up that the vast majority of their fieldwork was done 24 to 27 April .

    In terms of today ordinarily as the constituency results come in you’d be able to have a direct comparison , we don’t have that.

    The betting markets might become very volatile depending on the order in which those are released.

    For political junkies which I think is most of us in here we have an added day of excitement to enjoy !
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    Lon-done?

    What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.

    Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.

    I know you're being gently ironical at your own expense, and we all appreciate how you've stepped in after Mike had to call it a day. But I do find the constant flow of puns and Shakespeare increasingly off-putting, to the point of visiting the site less. I feel like a killjoy but... might you dial it down a bit?
    Lol
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,633

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    A plan? Just one? Come on, Truss has a plan, Badenoch another, Patel probably has several, Farage more of a plot than a plan, Rishi, err, ok maybe not.
    "record of delivery" is the laugh out loud line for me.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Yes, my feeling is that Khan will win on a low share as Hall will get an even lower share, and 30% or so going to the rest despite FPTP.

    As I posted at the end of last thread Khan will be hurt by the generalised anti-incumbent feeling, but we need to balance that with the generalised anti Tory feeling. Worth noting that a pretty universal outcome in yesterday's results is a substantial swing against the Conservatives, 17% or so against in Teesside. There would have to be a swing against Labour for Hall to win, and I just can't see that. Not that I have any particular knowledge as not often in the Smoke nowadays.

    Thanks for your threads on the Locals. Very interesting and prescient. It looks like Starmer gets a comfortable if not rampant win in the GE
    I had a read through the various independents etc this morning but there isn't an obvious receptacle for the pro Palestinian vote. Khan is perhaps fortunate that that is so. Without that he may suffer from some non voting but is unlikely to suffer from widescale defections.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.

    Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682
    The thing that the analysis on twitter will have missed will be the changes hidden by pairing an inner London borough with an outer London borough in the Assembly areas for which turnout data is provided. So I'd suggest that the swing away from Khan implied by the changes in turnout is likely to be larger than their analysis shows.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    A plan? Just one? Come on, Truss has a plan, Badenoch another, Patel probably has several, Farage more of a plot than a plan, Rishi, err, ok maybe not.
    "record of delivery" is the laugh out loud line for me.

    Just like Ian Poulter used to be known as the Postman at Ryder Cups as he always delivered, perhaps Rishi could be Rishi TNT Sunak.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573

    Morning. Been busy over the last couple of days (and am again today - agent for the YP in the W Yorks mayoral election), but just to say, Labour will win a landslide on Nov 14 this year, quite possibly bigger than Blair's.

    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.

    Yep, its really as simple as that when all is said and done.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.

    Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
    *geniuses
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.

    As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.

    The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.

    If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.

    There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.

    MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).

    Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.

    The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.

    Yes, my feeling is that Khan will win on a low share as Hall will get an even lower share, and 30% or so going to the rest despite FPTP.

    As I posted at the end of last thread Khan will be hurt by the generalised anti-incumbent feeling, but we need to balance that with the generalised anti Tory feeling. Worth noting that a pretty universal outcome in yesterday's results is a substantial swing against the Conservatives, 17% or so against in Teesside. There would have to be a swing against Labour for Hall to win, and I just can't see that. Not that I have any particular knowledge as not often in the Smoke nowadays.

    Thanks for your threads on the Locals. Very interesting and prescient. It looks like Starmer gets a comfortable if not rampant win in the GE
    I'm actually slightly nervous now that Khan goes sub 35%, which isn't my sweet spot and where I didn't put enough on.

    Come on Khan! (a little bit)
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682
    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    I think there's a decent chance that this has been thrown up by the Tories to distract from their heavy losses, so that the Lib Dems beating them into third place in number of councillors elected doesn't get talked about as much, etc.

    But. Khan is a poorly-performing incumbent at a time when incumbents are particularly getting it in the neck. And the turnout data is not what it would be if there were the swing in Khan's favour indicated by the opinion polls.

    So, yes. It is a distraction technique. But I also think Khan may well have lost.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948
    Once all the excitement is over, I'm hoping we can get a thread on the degree to which the tweets issued after the close of polling on Thursday influenced or moved the London Mayoral betting market.

    I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.

    Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.

    How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682

    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.

    Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
    Yes. At this stage you can only make a probabilistic forecast, but the outcome will be categorical. So you have to be grown-up about judging whether the forecast was reasonable or not.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,992
    Owen Jones has said Khan will get re-elected. Lump on Susan Hall.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    stodge said:

    Once all the excitement is over, I'm hoping we can get a thread on the degree to which the tweets issued after the close of polling on Thursday influenced or moved the London Mayoral betting market.

    I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.

    Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.

    How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?

    I wonder if there were any AI trading bots active scouring social media? Probably not a big enough market but I suspect there will be for the US election.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    DavidL said:

    Morning. Been busy over the last couple of days (and am again today - agent for the YP in the W Yorks mayoral election), but just to say, Labour will win a landslide on Nov 14 this year, quite possibly bigger than Blair's.

    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.

    Yep, its really as simple as that when all is said and done.
    See the apparent fizzling out of the "Dump Rishi after the locals" plot. It's not based on the results even being slightly OK. That includes Houchen; his swing was better than many others, but not by much.

    It's that there really is no point, unless a black swan turns up. So in the meantime, the ship's orchestra will play a much-loved hymn. Take it away...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544

    Owen Jones has said Khan will get re-elected. Lump on Susan Hall.

    Leon too! So it's confirmed, a Hall landslide!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Don't worry about headers.

    If he loses, we know what we will be facing.

    "The Wrath of Khan"....
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    Owen Jones has said Khan will get re-elected. Lump on Susan Hall.

    Wouldn't that be assault?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740

    Morning. Been busy over the last couple of days (and am again today - agent for the YP in the W Yorks mayoral election), but just to say, Labour will win a landslide on Nov 14 this year, quite possibly bigger than Blair's.

    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.

    This may well be right, but it's interesting that there is an alternative sub-plot, namely the Curtice/BBC/Sky national vote for GE projections from the vote. Which unite in telling a different story - that Labour are nicely and consistently ahead of the Tories but no more, and that a landslide is not baked in. The swings in the PCC elections are interesting in being less than needed for a wipeout. (Except in Cumbria where obviously my vote made all the difference).

    I would still be pleased on GE night (July or September) if Labour can gain 125 seats and a bare majority.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,992

    Morning. Been busy over the last couple of days (and am again today - agent for the YP in the W Yorks mayoral election), but just to say, Labour will win a landslide on Nov 14 this year, quite possibly bigger than Blair's.

    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.

    Yes, this is the sensible takeaway from the election results. The tactical voting is huge. Both the BBC and Sky have the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number on or even higher than the national polling - and yesterday it delivered the Tories one of their worst ever drubbings. What's more, tactical voting is actually easier to do in general elections - especially with the online information now available and in the GE Labour is going to be the main beneficiary.

    If you're a sensible Tory strategist - I know, I know - you are definitely not going to advise Sunak to call a summer election. You are going to wait and hope that something turns up. It's really the only chance. It may cost a few more seats but, really, so what? The situation is already so bad, holding on is the only sensible option.

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    Yes they’ll need to be careful. A disappointing election can be a useful corrective to complacency, or it can trigger damaging panic.

    Khan is a third term mayoral candidate so should expect underwhelming support, particularly as half of London seems to have decided he’s a genocidal Zionist and the other half think he’s a jihadi Islamist.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,402
    @stodge

    Morning, Sir.

    Congratulations on your calling of the local election results.

    What you got for Newmarket this afternoon?

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    A plan? Just one? Come on, Truss has a plan, Badenoch another, Patel probably has several, Farage more of a plot than a plan, Rishi, err, ok maybe not.
    "record of delivery" is the laugh out loud line for me.

    @MattChorley

    Sunak is so bad at managing seats he is in the running to take over the ­Co-op Live arena.


  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    The work to keep this site running is superb but I find myself missing the level-headedness of Mike Smithson, which seemed to spill over into tempering the occasionally wild, and often rude, suspects on here.

  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,402
    stodge said:

    Once all the excitement is over, I'm hoping we can get a thread on the degree to which the tweets issued after the close of polling on Thursday influenced or moved the London Mayoral betting market.

    I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.

    Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.

    How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?

    The punter should pay attention to PB.com.

    We all know each other, we know who is sound, who is flaky, who tends to shoot the breeze and who talks up their own book.

    Other sources are infinitely suspect.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    stodge said:

    Once all the excitement is over, I'm hoping we can get a thread on the degree to which the tweets issued after the close of polling on Thursday influenced or moved the London Mayoral betting market.

    I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.

    Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.

    How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?

    I wonder if there were any AI trading bots active scouring social media? Probably not a big enough market but I suspect there will be for the US election.
    I don't think so. Liquidity has generally so poor that not really worthwhile.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857

    Don't worry about headers.

    If he loses, we know what we will be facing.

    "The Wrath of Khan"....

    The Tempest of Nick Palmer will be something to be seen if that comes about.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Anyone in need of a laugh while we wait should have a read of this:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nicola-sturgeon-accused-of-astounding-lack-of-self-awareness-over-comments-on-womens-rights/ar-AA1o7Cm1?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    Nicola Sturgeon warning that there is a rise of misogyny and a push back against women's rights.
    Joanna Cherry KC says its not often she is rendered speechless.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,740
    Justin Webb on R4 Today was at Stourbridge, talking to the bridge club and indoor bowlers and something else about politics/elections etc. In several minutes they collectively failed to say an illuminating or interesting word about anything at all. Summary: we moan a lot and all politicians are the same. Voting passes the time. It was a sort of Beckettian art form.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    I remember in 97 Tory sources claiming they’d hung on to Hayes and Harlington….

    As I was discussing with viewcode last night. Khan will win and this Hallgasm will all be a distant memory.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.
    Yep but none of that justifies your bullying and abusive behaviour towards someone like me. And your ‘we are all going to ignore you’ was incredibly childish.

    I hope you will learn from this and tone it down, be a lot politer to those with whom you don’t agree … especially women.

    I don’t ask you to agree with me, nor to like me or my politics. But I do ask you to be polite and to stop being bullying and abusive.

    Thanks.

    xx

    p.s. and please spare me the ‘you’re rude too’ gaslighting
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,966

    Lon-done?

    What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.

    Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.

    I can't believe you struck out your tip for Susan Hall to win at 28s. Your modesty goes too far!
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Once all the excitement is over, I'm hoping we can get a thread on the degree to which the tweets issued after the close of polling on Thursday influenced or moved the London Mayoral betting market.

    I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.

    Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.

    How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?

    I wonder if there were any AI trading bots active scouring social media? Probably not a big enough market but I suspect there will be for the US election.
    I don't think so. Liquidity has generally so poor that not really worthwhile.
    Agreed. Could be some for training purposes. Either way I would expect them active for the next mayorality election. Not sure if they would win or not, but people with the skills to try it should be minted by then anyway, so hopefully don't mind losing a few $$$ to the luddites.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047

    Don't worry about headers.

    If he loses, we know what we will be facing.

    "The Wrath of Khan"....

    It will give the Tories some hope to Klingon to.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 863

    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.

    Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
    Hence the 'egg on my face' point.

    I'm not making a point about someone's betting ability based on the result, but based on the info we have now. Which, in my view, is very thin but almost entirely points to Khan winning.

    Thus, again in my view, trading out of Hall at an advantageous price seems vastly more sensible than hanging onto a stake at what have at times been remarkably short odds for someone who is such an outsider based on actual information rather than speculation/ramping/expectations management.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,402

    Morning. Been busy over the last couple of days (and am again today - agent for the YP in the W Yorks mayoral election), but just to say, Labour will win a landslide on Nov 14 this year, quite possibly bigger than Blair's.

    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.

    Yes, this is the sensible takeaway from the election results. The tactical voting is huge. Both the BBC and Sky have the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number on or even higher than the national polling - and yesterday it delivered the Tories one of their worst ever drubbings. What's more, tactical voting is actually easier to do in general elections - especially with the online information now available and in the GE Labour is going to be the main beneficiary.

    If you're a sensible Tory strategist - I know, I know - you are definitely not going to advise Sunak to call a summer election. You are going to wait and hope that something turns up. It's really the only chance. It may cost a few more seats but, really, so what? The situation is already so bad, holding on is the only sensible option.

    He missed the May boat, Southam.

    November is now his least bad alternative. (Maybe October? Not sure how feasible that is.)
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,992



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    maxh said:

    I may have egg on my face later (and wouldn't be unusual) but the Hall/Khan speculation seems like nothing more than ramping/expectations management.

    Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.

    And, if she does win, posts like this will in turn look foolish.

    We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.

    Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
    IF Hall wins, it will be a significant reverse (comparable to 1992) for the polling companies YouGov and Survation and this is not, as I said earlier, a 5,000 voter Ward, this is a city-wide election. The two sets of questions everyone will ask (not sure if this is the right order) are why and how did Hall win and why and how did Khan lose?

    In my area of East London, two Labour leaflets but zero ground war so while I imagine there has been more activity elsewhere, in my part of the world, nothing, not even a GOTV from Labour yesterday which is de rigeur for the local contests here in Newham.

    As to what constitutes a "good punter", I'd argue there are very few of those. The only two thoughts I have are the old adage of winning little and often. The other is not to bet on anything and everything - I used to go racing and bet on every race "just to have an interest" but now I don't. I might have one or two bets on a card of six to eight races. Watching racing is still the best way to build intelligence and improve analysis.

    Many moons ago, long before Mrs Stodge, I tested my punting ability over a 12-month period with a separate betting bank of £1,000 - at the end of the year, I had £880 left and I knew then I could never be a professional punter - it's hard work and requires a level of dedication and methodical analysis which I don't have in me.

    Unfortunately, politics is incredibly subjective and partisan and those who claim to be objective aren't - no one is. The time I won big on politics was 1997 and that was because I knew what was happening and the local bookmaker didn't and that's the only edge a punter can ever have on a bookmaker (or other punters). Uninformed tweets aren't intelligence and for punters to bet on them is speculative at best. Even those with canvass returns don't get it right - I've been an Agent and know whereof I speak. The biggest liars are canvassers and voters speaking to canvassers.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436

    Lon-done?

    What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.

    Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.

    I know you're being gently ironical at your own expense, and we all appreciate how you've stepped in after Mike had to call it a day. But I do find the constant flow of puns and Shakespeare increasingly off-putting, to the point of visiting the site less. I feel like a killjoy but... might you dial it down a bit?
    I agree I’m afraid. And an even bigger problem for me is the knee-jerk and breathless use of Twitter posts which are usually inaccurate and often wild. There’s a good reason many of us are very wary of twitter these days.

    Mike kept this place on an even keel with level-headed, crisp, threads. That often spilled over into damping down contributors.

    It must be hard to keep this place running and it’s appreciated but if it’s to live up to the standard set by Mike the new host needs to show a bit more maturity.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,966



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.
    I'm trying to unpick what you mean by your first sentence Casino. Do you mean 2005 seat outcome (66 maj) on a 1997 (43/30) vote-split, or the other way round (179 maj, 35/32 vote-split)?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110

    The thing that the analysis on twitter will have missed will be the changes hidden by pairing an inner London borough with an outer London borough in the Assembly areas for which turnout data is provided. So I'd suggest that the swing away from Khan implied by the changes in turnout is likely to be larger than their analysis shows.

    That’s an excellent point . For that reason it’s a shame we don’t get turnouts split between inner and outer London in those cases. They must have the data available but don’t release it .
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646

    Owen Jones has said Khan will get re-elected. Lump on Susan Hall.

    Owen Jones: Never Knowingly Correct
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,966

    Owen Jones has said Khan will get re-elected. Lump on Susan Hall.

    But what does Peston say?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    edited May 4

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    Is he so delusional that he actually believes his own spin?

    It passed little remarked amongst Scottish plots and English votes but on Wed 1 May there were 711 small boat arrivals, and 400 more on April 29th and 30th.

    Despite a single voluntary deportee paid to fly to Rwanda.

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,436
    Taz said:

    I remember in 97 Tory sources claiming they’d hung on to Hayes and Harlington….

    As I was discussing with viewcode last night. Khan will win and this Hallgasm will all be a distant memory.

    I think we’re going to look back on it and wonder what the hall it was all about.

    I’m suspicious of people with vested interests saving their stakes, something which is made a lot worse by the delay between vote and count.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682
    Heathener said:

    The work to keep this site running is superb but I find myself missing the level-headedness of Mike Smithson, which seemed to spill over into tempering the occasionally wild, and often rude, suspects on here.

    We all miss Mike.

    I'm sure he'd have included a graph of how the odds for London Mayor had swung about over the last 36 hours in the thread header.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    edited May 4
    Foxy said:

    Don't worry about headers.

    If he loses, we know what we will be facing.

    "The Wrath of Khan"....

    It will give the Tories some hope to Klingon to.
    In his memoirs after stepping down as 17 years as PM, Rishi Sunak reveals that he beat the Kobayashi Maru test by reprogramming the election to make it possible to rescue the ship of state....
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    algarkirk said:

    Justin Webb on R4 Today was at Stourbridge, talking to the bridge club and indoor bowlers and something else about politics/elections etc. In several minutes they collectively failed to say an illuminating or interesting word about anything at all. Summary: we moan a lot and all politicians are the same. Voting passes the time. It was a sort of Beckettian art form.

    It was interesting though in the sense that it highlighted how, for example, the Lib Dem’s could have torn through the lethargy if they had a dynamic leader and presented a fresh approach. They are big enough (don’t laugh) and established enough that they have brand awareness but not badly tarnished as “same old” by a lot of voters. Clearly all the interviewees were just looking for a home for their vote that was vaguely inspiring.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    edited May 4
    nico679 said:

    The thing that the analysis on twitter will have missed will be the changes hidden by pairing an inner London borough with an outer London borough in the Assembly areas for which turnout data is provided. So I'd suggest that the swing away from Khan implied by the changes in turnout is likely to be larger than their analysis shows.

    That’s an excellent point . For that reason it’s a shame we don’t get turnouts split between inner and outer London in those cases. They must have the data available but don’t release it .
    Richard Tyndall posted a list last thread on the percentage turnout by Borough.

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Every sign so far is that they're much more likely to repeat the experience of Labour post-1979 and post-2010, and the Tories post-1997 and play to the base first. In their case, the pressure from Reform will add to the desire for comfort-zone politics. It'll probably take about 3 defeats for them to track back to the centre. But it may not happen at all. They're not guaranteed to survive in their current form.

    Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Who knows. But I think the centre-right stuff can easily be misinterpreted as "please, as a left-winger, make this Tory party as tolerable to me as possible, just in case it wins".

    What they need to do is repitch their brand across the whole electorate in a way that's distinct, and true to their principles, but relevant for the 2030s and can still command a majority.

    So, for example, they might maintain a sceptical position on identity politics, and control of immigration, whilst having a better plan for non-ideological market-based solutions for climate change, strong defence and alliances to manage global geopolitical challenges, investing more in education, jobs, infrastructure and housing, rather than just the elderly.

    They will still look to minimise tax - they are still too high on income - but this probably means no longer fetishising certain tax cuts.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,016

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Online is obviously a big place, but in terms of relevance here I don't recall a single poster being positive about Hall, let alone a fan club. There are plenty who would vote for her because she is a Tory and plenty more who would vote for her as she is not Khan.
    In the last few weeks I've canvassed at least 100 people including 20-30 Tories but not one had a positive word for Hall. For example one Tory told me he was going to hold his nose and vote for Hall because he hated Khan - ULEZ etc but I think more to it.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    stodge said:

    I knew then I could never be a professional punter - it's hard work and requires a level of dedication and methodical analysis which I don't have in me.

    The time I won big on politics was 1997 and that was because I knew what was happening and the local bookmaker didn't and that's the only edge a punter can ever have on a bookmaker (or other punters).

    I agree with this, however, one thing I have not seen discussed much here is 'match betting', which is perhaps as close as you can get to playing with the bookies' money

    Maybe not best suited to politics though
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    boulay said:

    algarkirk said:

    Justin Webb on R4 Today was at Stourbridge, talking to the bridge club and indoor bowlers and something else about politics/elections etc. In several minutes they collectively failed to say an illuminating or interesting word about anything at all. Summary: we moan a lot and all politicians are the same. Voting passes the time. It was a sort of Beckettian art form.

    It was interesting though in the sense that it highlighted how, for example, the Lib Dem’s could have torn through the lethargy if they had a dynamic leader and presented a fresh approach. They are big enough (don’t laugh) and established enough that they have brand awareness but not badly tarnished as “same old” by a lot of voters. Clearly all the interviewees were just looking for a home for their vote that was vaguely inspiring.
    I used to know Stourbridge very well. Had good friends there and even worked there for a while. It always amazed me it went labour in the first place. Really nice place and Sunil would love the two train stations.

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,948

    @stodge

    Morning, Sir.

    Congratulations on your calling of the local election results.

    What you got for Newmarket this afternoon?

    I believe the late Graham Rock once opined he never had a bet on the flat until Royal Ascot and that's probably sound advice.

    The 2000 Guineas is simple enough - if CITY OF TROY is the horse he was last year and Coolmore seem to think he is, he'll win and 8/13 will look a steal. The form of Ballydoyle is a concern but they often start slowly but I can't forget all the hype around AUGUSTE RODIN this time last year and how that turned out.

    ROSALLION is the obvious alternative and 6s is an each way bet to nothing. The two among the outsiders for me are ALYNAABI but he's drifted to 20s and Craven winner HAATEM at 28s and the latter would be my bet if we could nick £20 from @TSE's shoe funds (he won't miss it) and I'd have a tenner each way.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,544



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Who knows. But I think the centre-right stuff can easily be misinterpreted as "please, as a left-winger, make this Tory party as tolerable to me as possible, just in case it wins".

    What they need to do is repitch their brand across the whole electorate in a way that's distinct, and true to their principles, but relevant for the 2030s and can still command a majority.

    So, for example, they might maintain a sceptical position on identity politics, and control of immigration, whilst having a better plan for non-ideological market-based solutions for climate change, strong defence and alliances to manage global geopolitical challenges, investing more in education, jobs, infrastructure and housing, rather than just the elderly.

    They will still look to minimise tax - they are still too high on income - but this probably means no longer fetishising certain tax cuts.
    I think you mistake left leaning centrists for rampant Marxists. Most on the centre left would prefer a Heathite Government to a Corbyn government. Additionally if the Conservatives elect Jenrick or Braverman as leader they might win! Now if you want to upset centrists of the left or right, a mad populist right wing BNP-lite Government should do the trick.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,016
    edited May 4
    ToryJim said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
    I doubt it’s anything quite so organised, it’s more likely the excitable nature of activists who are barely out of short trousers.
    ToryJim said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Oh. Is that why they were briefing that she had won? Voter fraud claims?
    I doubt it’s anything quite so organised, it’s more likely the excitable nature of activists who are barely out of short trousers.
    I've now heard that the verification was face up. So there is some data out there on voting share on a large number of boxes noted by political activists at the verification stage. But it's not randomised and I agree that it can lead to over excitement. Perhaps that's what happened with the sudden move to Hall?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    The thing that the analysis on twitter will have missed will be the changes hidden by pairing an inner London borough with an outer London borough in the Assembly areas for which turnout data is provided. So I'd suggest that the swing away from Khan implied by the changes in turnout is likely to be larger than their analysis shows.

    That’s an excellent point . For that reason it’s a shame we don’t get turnouts split between inner and outer London in those cases. They must have the data available but don’t release it .
    Richard Tyndall posted a list last thread on the percentage turnout by Borough.

    I saw that but it’s just the 14 constituencies . We don’t have publicly available borough data .
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,402
    edited May 4

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    The Telegraph actually reported the results as 'better than expected.' We'll pass quietly over the thought of what 'worse than' might have looked like and gently point out that the antipathy of the electorate is likely to be rather less towards councils than central government. The punishment the Tories received yesterday is therefore likely to be somewhat lighter than what appears to be coming next.

    Electoral Calculus is predicting 85 seats. It could be right.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,948

    Barnesian said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Online is obviously a big place, but in terms of relevance here I don't recall a single poster being positive about Hall, let alone a fan club. There are plenty who would vote for her because she is a Tory and plenty more who would vote for her as she is not Khan.
    In the last few weeks I've canvassed at least 100 people including 20-30 Tories but not one had a positive word for Hall. For example one Tory told me he was going to hold his nose and vote for Hall because he hated Khan - ULEZ etc but I think more to it.
    Can’t help but think that in a parallel universe in which Rory Stewart stood as either Independent or even Conservative, he’d be storming his way to victory.
    Should have been Jezza v the ex Tory. Much more fun.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 863



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Who knows. But I think the centre-right stuff can easily be misinterpreted as "please, as a left-winger, make this Tory party as tolerable to me as possible, just in case it wins".

    What they need to do is repitch their brand across the whole electorate in a way that's distinct, and true to their principles, but relevant for the 2030s and can still command a majority.

    So, for example, they might maintain a sceptical position on identity politics, and control of immigration, whilst having a better plan for non-ideological market-based solutions for climate change, strong defence and alliances to manage global geopolitical challenges, investing more in education, jobs, infrastructure and housing, rather than just the elderly.



    They will still look to minimise tax - they are still
    too high on income - but this probably means no
    longer fetishising certain tax cuts.
    Largely agree, but 'repitching their brand across the whole electorate' will necessarily require a centre-right position of some sort.

    It won't be a Cameroonian one, sure, but the point still stands that if they choose ideological purity of any sort they'll be toast.

    What I would love to see both Labour and the Tories aim for is a bold and thought-through but not too radical/ideological position. There will necessarily be lots of agreement between them (defense, investment for productivity, action on climate change, clipping the wings of globalist capitalism) but distinct methods of achieving those goals.

    At the moment it feels as though we have a bit of a mountain to climb and are sitting at the bottom choosing which mouse to ride on the back of.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Every sign so far is that they're much more likely to repeat the experience of Labour post-1979 and post-2010, and the Tories post-1997 and play to the base first. In their case, the pressure from Reform will add to the desire for comfort-zone politics. It'll probably take about 3 defeats for them to track back to the centre. But it may not happen at all. They're not guaranteed to survive in their current form.

    Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
    Crudely, the crossroads the Conservatives are at has a path labelled Street and a path labelled Badenoch. They don't have to be mutually exclusive, but they probably are in practice.

    Personally, I think one of them works electorally and the other one doesn't, though I'm just a random on the internet.

    Question is, how much time will the Conservatives waste on the Badenoch path before concluding that it's a dead end? And will someone else have occupied the Street patch by the time that whatever's left of the Conservatives decide they want to explore it?
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,823

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    The Tories were created by Man.
    They rebelled.
    They devolved.
    There are many copies.
    And they have a plan.
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 863



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Every sign so far is that they're much more likely to repeat the experience of Labour post-1979 and post-2010, and the Tories post-1997 and play to the base first. In their case, the pressure from Reform will add to the desire for comfort-zone politics. It'll probably take about 3 defeats for them to track back to the centre. But it may not happen at all. They're not guaranteed to survive in their current form.

    Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
    Crudely, the crossroads the Conservatives are at has a path labelled Street and a path labelled Badenoch. They don't have to be mutually exclusive, but they probably are in practice.

    Personally, I think one of them works electorally and the other one doesn't, though I'm just a random on the internet.

    Question is, how much time will the Conservatives waste on the Badenoch path
    before concluding that it's a dead end? And will
    someone else have occupied the Street patch by
    the time that whatever's left of the Conservatives
    decide they want to explore it?
    Agreed. But is there not someone already occupying the Street patch i.e. Starmer?

  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,016



    Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.

    This is key.
    The interesting question to me is whether Starmer and Labour realise it?

    If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
    This is going to sound weird but I think the election this year will feel more like GE2005 but with GE1997++ voteshares.

    Why do I say that?

    Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.

    This is a very astute point. The one additional observation I'd make, though, is that by 2005 the Tories had come to terms with what they needed to do to regain power and David Cameron appeared soon afterwards. If the Tories do lose later this year, will they bypass the Hague and IDS stages of recovery and go straight back to the centre-right?

    Every sign so far is that they're much more likely to repeat the experience of Labour post-1979 and post-2010, and the Tories post-1997 and play to the base first. In their case, the pressure from Reform will add to the desire for comfort-zone politics. It'll probably take about 3 defeats for them to track back to the centre. But it may not happen at all. They're not guaranteed to survive in their current form.

    Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
    Crudely, the crossroads the Conservatives are at has a path labelled Street and a path labelled Badenoch. They don't have to be mutually exclusive, but they probably are in practice.

    Personally, I think one of them works electorally and the other one doesn't, though I'm just a random on the internet.

    Question is, how much time will the Conservatives waste on the Badenoch path before concluding that it's a dead end? And will someone else have occupied the Street patch by the time that whatever's left of the Conservatives decide they want to explore it?
    There's a third path labelled Farage.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,633

    Sunak: "The choice at the next election is clear – only the Conservatives have a plan" - Telegraph article by the man himself.

    The same utterly deluded drivel.

    "A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.

    The Telegraph actually reported the results as 'better than expected.' We'll pass quietly over the thought of what 'worse than' might have looked like and gently point out that the antipathy of the electorate is likely to be rather less towards councils than central government. The punishment the Tories received yesterday is therefore likely to be somewhat lighter than what appears to be coming next.

    Electoral Calculus is predicting 85 seats. It could be right.
    I've always maintained that the polling will narrow quite a bit once people really focus on the choice being Starmer's Labour or Tories.

    But I am seriously beginning to wonder whether this really is one of Callaghan's "Seachange" elections.

    Starmer's huge issue is going to be getting the vote out I think. Blair he 'aint. A lot of apathy out there. One of the things that seems to be forgotten about '97 GE was the ground war. The people that Labour and the unions had mobilised to knock on doors and leaflet was astonishing is certainly my memory.


  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,633
    Barnesian said:

    Tres said:

    Expect Hall fanboys to be moaning online about a fix after Khan walks this.

    Online is obviously a big place, but in terms of relevance here I don't recall a single poster being positive about Hall, let alone a fan club. There are plenty who would vote for her because she is a Tory and plenty more who would vote for her as she is not Khan.
    In the last few weeks I've canvassed at least 100 people including 20-30 Tories but not one had a positive word for Hall. For example one Tory told me he was going to hold his nose and vote for Hall because he hated Khan - ULEZ etc but I think more to it.

    Bella Wallersteiner 🇺🇦
    @BellaWallerstei

    If Susan Hall is close to winning London, CCHQ has serious questions to answer about why it didn’t pick a more dynamic, modern, outward-looking candidate. London is winnable for us.

    https://twitter.com/BellaWallerstei/status/1786659943807901889
This discussion has been closed.