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Is Sadiq Khan Lon-done? – politicalbetting.com
Is Sadiq Khan Lon-done? – politicalbetting.com
The correlation between ‘going slightly mad reading London turnout data’ and ‘having been up half the night’ feels quite strong on election Twitter
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What an awesome pun, puns like this is why I visit PB.
Love the AV chat in the thread header too, oh and the subtle Star Trek reference too.
Its a tough gig this one.
Are you new here?
I can’t believe I’m writing this. But Tory sources say Shaun Bailey’s campaign now believe they can win the London mayoralty.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1390687211184705541
It's what campaign sources do, and it's why it's cruel to make them wait so long for the actual results.
But not long now before we know whether or not it's worked.
There'll be time for more nuanced commentary after all the excitement.
As for London, all I can offer is in my part of East Ham there were no tellers from any party so no one could have known who has voted, let alone how. This isn't a 5,000 vote Ward, this is a city. Canvassing it all is out of the question so there are assumptions about turnout and how people voted being made on a mesoscale.
The first assumption is the Outer Suburbs are all Conservative - are they? Some parts are but not all and presumably backing this is the notion of an anti-ULEZ backlash but that wasn't seen in the pre-election polling.
If we can't be sure about the Outer Suburbs, we can't be sure about the Inner ones either.
There's lot of "factors" at work - the Uxbridge Effect, the 2021 Experience, Khan himself to name but three. Both offer those opposed to Khan some "hope" but at this stage that's all.
MY view, for the insignificance of it, is the "other" parties will do surprisingly well - I expect Blackie, Garbett and Cox to have garnered a minimum of 20 and as much as 30% between them (and the various other Independents).
Khan could therefore be 35-40% and still win and if you had to nail me down with some nails at this time of the day my thought would be Khan 35-40%, Hall 30-35% and the Rest 20-30%. I've no "evidence" for that but apart from extrapolations, assumptions and misconceptions derived from turnover data, no one else has either.
The London by-elections aren't a huge help - there's evidence of strength for both Conservative and Labour in their strongest areas.
The Tunnel looks to be progressing.
The same utterly deluded drivel.
"A plan versus no plan, bold principled action versus U-turns and prevarication, a clear record of delivery..." etc etc.
As I posted at the end of last thread Khan will be hurt by the generalised anti-incumbent feeling, but we need to balance that with the generalised anti Tory feeling. Worth noting that a pretty universal outcome in yesterday's results is a substantial swing against the Conservatives, 17% or so against in Teesside. There would have to be a swing against Labour for Hall to win, and I just can't see that. Not that I have any particular knowledge as not often in the Smoke nowadays.
Thanks for your threads on the Locals. Very interesting and prescient. It looks like Starmer gets a comfortable if not rampant win in the GE
Great to extract trading value from bets, but any of you left with money on Hall when the music stops are fools, in my view.
Of course elections for a single post should use Extended AV, where the elector can vote against candidates, placing outcomes, elected or not elected, in order of preference.
The ID rules and voting system change .
Both are drags on the Labour vote and what’s been underplayed is possible effects of the tragic events .
The fieldwork for the Savanta poll is more likely to have included a decent proportion of responses to that . This happens to be the poll with just a 10 point Labour lead .
The YouGov which had that 22 point lead for Labour stated in the write up that the vast majority of their fieldwork was done 24 to 27 April .
In terms of today ordinarily as the constituency results come in you’d be able to have a direct comparison , we don’t have that.
The betting markets might become very volatile depending on the order in which those are released.
For political junkies which I think is most of us in here we have an added day of excitement to enjoy !
Don't be distracted by the mayorals, which have long been only loosely linked to national polling - see Hartlepool, Doncaster, Livingstone etc. Big figures swing votes. Only in the absence of big figures do voters default to national opinion.
Instead, look at Blackpool South, look at the council results - and in particular at the effects of anti-Con tactical voting and the impact of Reform, where they stood, and look at the under-reported PCC elections, which are often also a useful proxy for national opinion, as they're not strongly fought. The Tories are toast.
We need to get beyond calling people genuines if they happen to get it right and idiots it they get it wrong. It doesn't help frank dialogue on here that we all depend on.
Any good punter will have lots of losses in their portfolio, including some bad ones, but will also be consistently be making a fairly good profit overall.
Heavy lies the head that wears the crown.
Come on Khan! (a little bit)
But. Khan is a poorly-performing incumbent at a time when incumbents are particularly getting it in the neck. And the turnout data is not what it would be if there were the swing in Khan's favour indicated by the opinion polls.
So, yes. It is a distraction technique. But I also think Khan may well have lost.
I suspect some of these, from the likes of Kate Ferguson, will have had an effect but if we can track the market moves to the publication of tweets, I suspect it will prove illuminating.
Obviously, the sensitivity of markets to what are at best rumour or hearsay is well known but are we also talking about active market manipulation? Are some of these commentators also gamblers who think they can move the market to their personal advantage? There's a "herd effect" at work too - I've seen it on the racecourse often enough. A big player steps in and takes 7/2 - the bookie cuts it to 3s and then as the smaller players go in that becomes 11/4, 5/2 and eventually 2s. What you don't see are the other runners drifting or people taking advantage of the bigger price so the 6/4 chance eases to say 9/4 but the shrewder players go in at that price.
How should the punter react to a tweet from a political commentator or analyst which starts "I'm hearing that" or "My source at CCHQ tells me" or "The rumour doing the rounds at Westminster is"?
If a bad result for Khan in London leads to major panic by Starmer and Labour, it could still influence the GE outcome.
It's that there really is no point, unless a black swan turns up. So in the meantime, the ship's orchestra will play a much-loved hymn. Take it away...
If he loses, we know what we will be facing.
"The Wrath of Khan"....
I would still be pleased on GE night (July or September) if Labour can gain 125 seats and a bare majority.
If you're a sensible Tory strategist - I know, I know - you are definitely not going to advise Sunak to call a summer election. You are going to wait and hope that something turns up. It's really the only chance. It may cost a few more seats but, really, so what? The situation is already so bad, holding on is the only sensible option.
Khan is a third term mayoral candidate so should expect underwhelming support, particularly as half of London seems to have decided he’s a genocidal Zionist and the other half think he’s a jihadi Islamist.
Morning, Sir.
Congratulations on your calling of the local election results.
What you got for Newmarket this afternoon?
Sunak is so bad at managing seats he is in the running to take over the Co-op Live arena.
Why do I say that?
Because SKS already has a fraying base with Greens and issues with Muslim voters, whilst still cracking all the key marginals, to that extent it reminds me of how Blair did post Iraq-War.
We all know each other, we know who is sound, who is flaky, who tends to shoot the breeze and who talks up their own book.
Other sources are infinitely suspect.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nicola-sturgeon-accused-of-astounding-lack-of-self-awareness-over-comments-on-womens-rights/ar-AA1o7Cm1?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Nicola Sturgeon warning that there is a rise of misogyny and a push back against women's rights.
Joanna Cherry KC says its not often she is rendered speechless.
As I was discussing with viewcode last night. Khan will win and this Hallgasm will all be a distant memory.
I hope you will learn from this and tone it down, be a lot politer to those with whom you don’t agree … especially women.
I don’t ask you to agree with me, nor to like me or my politics. But I do ask you to be polite and to stop being bullying and abusive.
Thanks.
xx
p.s. and please spare me the ‘you’re rude too’ gaslighting
I'm not making a point about someone's betting ability based on the result, but based on the info we have now. Which, in my view, is very thin but almost entirely points to Khan winning.
Thus, again in my view, trading out of Hall at an advantageous price seems vastly more sensible than hanging onto a stake at what have at times been remarkably short odds for someone who is such an outsider based on actual information rather than speculation/ramping/expectations management.
November is now his least bad alternative. (Maybe October? Not sure how feasible that is.)
In my area of East London, two Labour leaflets but zero ground war so while I imagine there has been more activity elsewhere, in my part of the world, nothing, not even a GOTV from Labour yesterday which is de rigeur for the local contests here in Newham.
As to what constitutes a "good punter", I'd argue there are very few of those. The only two thoughts I have are the old adage of winning little and often. The other is not to bet on anything and everything - I used to go racing and bet on every race "just to have an interest" but now I don't. I might have one or two bets on a card of six to eight races. Watching racing is still the best way to build intelligence and improve analysis.
Many moons ago, long before Mrs Stodge, I tested my punting ability over a 12-month period with a separate betting bank of £1,000 - at the end of the year, I had £880 left and I knew then I could never be a professional punter - it's hard work and requires a level of dedication and methodical analysis which I don't have in me.
Unfortunately, politics is incredibly subjective and partisan and those who claim to be objective aren't - no one is. The time I won big on politics was 1997 and that was because I knew what was happening and the local bookmaker didn't and that's the only edge a punter can ever have on a bookmaker (or other punters). Uninformed tweets aren't intelligence and for punters to bet on them is speculative at best. Even those with canvass returns don't get it right - I've been an Agent and know whereof I speak. The biggest liars are canvassers and voters speaking to canvassers.
Mike kept this place on an even keel with level-headed, crisp, threads. That often spilled over into damping down contributors.
It must be hard to keep this place running and it’s appreciated but if it’s to live up to the standard set by Mike the new host needs to show a bit more maturity.
It passed little remarked amongst Scottish plots and English votes but on Wed 1 May there were 711 small boat arrivals, and 400 more on April 29th and 30th.
Despite a single voluntary deportee paid to fly to Rwanda.
I’m suspicious of people with vested interests saving their stakes, something which is made a lot worse by the delay between vote and count.
I'm sure he'd have included a graph of how the odds for London Mayor had swung about over the last 36 hours in the thread header.
Something will develop on the centre-right though. It has to. There are too many votes there for the space to be left unoccupied.
What they need to do is repitch their brand across the whole electorate in a way that's distinct, and true to their principles, but relevant for the 2030s and can still command a majority.
So, for example, they might maintain a sceptical position on identity politics, and control of immigration, whilst having a better plan for non-ideological market-based solutions for climate change, strong defence and alliances to manage global geopolitical challenges, investing more in education, jobs, infrastructure and housing, rather than just the elderly.
They will still look to minimise tax - they are still too high on income - but this probably means no longer fetishising certain tax cuts.
Maybe not best suited to politics though
The 2000 Guineas is simple enough - if CITY OF TROY is the horse he was last year and Coolmore seem to think he is, he'll win and 8/13 will look a steal. The form of Ballydoyle is a concern but they often start slowly but I can't forget all the hype around AUGUSTE RODIN this time last year and how that turned out.
ROSALLION is the obvious alternative and 6s is an each way bet to nothing. The two among the outsiders for me are ALYNAABI but he's drifted to 20s and Craven winner HAATEM at 28s and the latter would be my bet if we could nick £20 from @TSE's shoe funds (he won't miss it) and I'd have a tenner each way.
Electoral Calculus is predicting 85 seats. It could be right.
It won't be a Cameroonian one, sure, but the point still stands that if they choose ideological purity of any sort they'll be toast.
What I would love to see both Labour and the Tories aim for is a bold and thought-through but not too radical/ideological position. There will necessarily be lots of agreement between them (defense, investment for productivity, action on climate change, clipping the wings of globalist capitalism) but distinct methods of achieving those goals.
At the moment it feels as though we have a bit of a mountain to climb and are sitting at the bottom choosing which mouse to ride on the back of.
Personally, I think one of them works electorally and the other one doesn't, though I'm just a random on the internet.
Question is, how much time will the Conservatives waste on the Badenoch path before concluding that it's a dead end? And will someone else have occupied the Street patch by the time that whatever's left of the Conservatives decide they want to explore it?
They rebelled.
They devolved.
There are many copies.
And they have a plan.
But I am seriously beginning to wonder whether this really is one of Callaghan's "Seachange" elections.
Starmer's huge issue is going to be getting the vote out I think. Blair he 'aint. A lot of apathy out there. One of the things that seems to be forgotten about '97 GE was the ground war. The people that Labour and the unions had mobilised to knock on doors and leaflet was astonishing is certainly my memory.
Bella Wallersteiner 🇺🇦
@BellaWallerstei
If Susan Hall is close to winning London, CCHQ has serious questions to answer about why it didn’t pick a more dynamic, modern, outward-looking candidate. London is winnable for us.
https://twitter.com/BellaWallerstei/status/1786659943807901889