Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Is Sadiq Khan Lon-done? – politicalbetting.com

1235»

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,153
    Hall out to 320!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,804

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Why? As if any of that shit matters to DJT.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Will be relieved if Khan does see off Hall. The last thing we need is the Tories thinking we need more bonkers Trumpites to be able to win.

    Hopefully the Street-ite path will be the one taken.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Tories getting mauled in Stroud by the reds and greens
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,153

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    On what basis?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Cookie said:

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    I really don't think it's reasonable to call Hall a far-right crackpot.
    Also Brexit had the most votes for anything in British democratic history. Hardly sensible to complain about passive voters.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,180

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Eminently qualified I'd say..
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,506

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    There was a suggestion that Trump might be inching away from MAGA and towards the GOP Establishment. Not sure where though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,276
    AlsoLei said:

    NeilVW said:

    ClippP said:

    NeilVW said:

    Sky not showing vote change / swing figures for these first couple of London results which is a bit poor.

    Not much point. It is a different voting system.

    Thank you Mr Johnson. Another fine mess you have got us into.
    Comparing with first preferences last time out would sure be a decent indicator, if caveats provided.
    Disagree. FPTP functions more like the second preference in SV for anyone paying attention. Of course, most people don't pay attention so you can't compare with the second prefs from last time, either...
    Some people, such as me, would put their true first preference as their second preference, and lend out their first preference to their second preference to send a message regarding what issues are important to them.

    But no longer.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,688
    Luisa Porrit (LD) votes in the first round Merton and Wandsworth 2021 9445, Rob Blackie (LD) 13,153. LD well up.
    Sian Berry (Green) in first round Merton and Wandsworth 2021 14050 votes, Zoe Garbett 9,646. Greens well down.
    Similar picture in Greenwich and Lewisham - LDs up and Greens down in raw numbers compared to 2021

    So it looks as if the LDs will increase their seats on the GLA from two to three and have a good election. Greens less so.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,865
    edited May 4

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Why? I would have thought lying about political matters would make her a more likely pick.

    Edit - I see the general feeling is not with you on this...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,590

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Surely outright lying demonstrates she has the right qualities to be Trump’s VP. Whoever he picks will have to tell at least some lies (e.g., he really won in 2020).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,865

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Surely outright lying demonstrates she has the right qualities to be Trump’s VP. Whoever he picks will have to tell at least some lies (e.g., he really won in 2020).
    Also:

    He doesn't sexually assault women
    He doesn't commit tax fraud
    He has a decent haircut.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.

    Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.

    Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.

    The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.

    Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"

    He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.



    His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.

    Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
    Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.

    The right strategy with the right result.
    Leaving aside the more important point that Labour's position here should be primarily based on what is morally and ethically right, it is bizarre that any Labour supporter still thinks that Starmer has been pursuing the "right strategy" on Gaza in terms of party political considerations. For someone who for the first couple of years had been pretty sure footed politically, Starmer's positioning has been surprisingly politically inept. Labour has undoubtably lost the trust and votes of a large swathe of Muslim voters, as well as having given a reason to others on the left to finally break with voting Labour and there is no way that that has been counterbalanced by any significant extra votes gained from elsewhere. That may not matter in a 2024 general election, but it could be decisive in at 2029 general election.

    I have found it hard to find anyone in the Labour Party who thinks that Starmer has taken the right course, and that includes many elected representatives. It is not anything but an opinion confined to the remnants of the Corbyn far left, the opinion "we would have been better voting for Nandy not Starmer" is becoming widespread.

    What is ironic is that Labour has spent the past 7 months rowing back on Starmer's original position, such that the position taken now would not have caused the same reaction had it been taken initially, but that rowing back has never been quite enough to offset the damage done. To give an example: while the Lib Dems are now calling for a halt to arms exports to Israel, Lammy contented himself with calling for the government's legal evidence to be published in the full knowledge that that would not happen. Why couldn't Labour just say that it's own legal advice was that Israel had been committing war crimes, and that it would therefore support an arms embargo unless the government published evidence to the contrary?

    I just hope that when the combined share of the Independent (Yakoob) and Green vote is added together in the West Midlands mayoral election, the penny finally drops. Perhaps it already has, but unless Labour takes a harder stance towards Israel now the damage will persist:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68956784
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I see the Greens have won on quite a few pro-Hamas tickets. They're going to be too stupid to realise what an issue this will become in the next couple of years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,983

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    No, we've only had 2 out of 14 results.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,169

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Trump is the kind of man who'll forgive you for dragging a puppy to a gravel pit and shooting it in the face, but not for claiming to be more familiar with his friend Kim Jong-un than is strictly justified.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,590

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    Not yet, but two areas have declared and they had similar 5% swings to Labour. This is very strong evidence that Khan has won (on top of a strong prior that Khan would win).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 4

    Chameleon said:

    Khan doubled his vote lead in Merton and Wandsworth vs 2021. Lead 18k up on 2021.

    As expected, a swing to Labour in Wandsworth on the back of decent delivery from the council, Khan being "meh" here and Susan Hall being a joke.

    Khan will cruise to victory on those kinds of results, indicating the polls have got it almost spot on.

    Actually living in Wandsworth as I do, I am not surprised to see these results. It was obvious when the Tories were handing out green flyers with Tories in minuscule font that they knew they were on for a drubbing.
    Yep

    This and the Epping Forest @HYUFD call together with, might I suggest, my tip about Woking going LibDem last year, are examples of why it does really matter to listen to the local voices.

    Rather than the confirmation bias of interest groups for instance.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    Not yet, but two areas have declared and they had similar 5% swings to Labour. This is very strong evidence that Khan has won (on top of a strong prior that Khan would win).
    Thank goodness 😃😃😃
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,782
    Andy_JS said:

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    No, we've only had 2 out of 14 results.
    I suspect outer London will show a swing against Khan, and a higher turnout, but that won't be enough.

    I just hope he goes sub 45% otherwise I lose all my band stakes and, whilst having some profit overall, I still won't be be the happiest of bunnies.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    There was a suggestion that Trump might be inching away from MAGA and towards the GOP Establishment. Not sure where though.
    Burgum. He is crazy rich.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,951
    Cookie said:

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    I really don't think it's reasonable to call Hall a far-right crackpot.
    Not particularly reasonable to assume that all (or a majority) of stay at homers were remainers either.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Why? As if any of that shit matters to DJT.
    Even Trump is appalled, it seems. How low do you have to go to appal von Shitzenpants?

    An RNC fundraiser for her has been cancelled "for safety reasons". Maybe the Dog Lovers Party runs against her?
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 4

    Leon said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.

    Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.

    Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.

    The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.

    Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"

    He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.



    His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.

    Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
    Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.

    The right strategy with the right result.
    Wait, what?

    Are there actually "Hamas candidates", or people who openly support them?

    I presumed it was amusing hyperbole, but these days, who knows
    Just my shorthand.

    Just lots of independents who happen to have been elected in Muslim areas.
    Don't worry about it. Everyone's allowed a bit of shorthand. What's a "Muslim area" then?

    And after all, Hamas already control UNRWA, the Biden White House, the owners of the Shard in London, the Workers Party (Gorgeous calls himself a Fatah man, but that's just a funny spelling of Hamas), and Hamas are well-known to have their hooks into the Guardian, the South African government, the ICJ, the United Nations generally, and Hollywood. When you've been around as long as I have, you can easily spot a Hamasser. It's the way they look at you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,782
    Chameleon said:

    I see the Greens have won on quite a few pro-Hamas tickets. They're going to be too stupid to realise what an issue this will become in the next couple of years.

    The Greens are basically an "out there" LDs, now.

    They can win in very Tory areas by ultra-NIMBYism, and they can also play faux-Socialist Worker in the inner cities.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Chameleon said:

    I see the Greens have won on quite a few pro-Hamas tickets. They're going to be too stupid to realise what an issue this will become in the next couple of years.

    One of the reasons I’ve packed in my Greens membership is the Corbynista entrism and the shift away from actual green issues. I accept that a degree of opportunism is a part of pragmatic electoral politics, but Hamas is not a sensible wagon to hitch to.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,023
    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    Khan ahead of where he was last time in Merton and Wandsworth. This is all over tbh
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,865

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Ah, the egregious Governor Noem has been busy again.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,590

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    When they stood, they took lots of votes from the Tories. This is bad for the Tories.

    When they didn’t stand, Reform supporters seem to have often returned to the Tories. This is good for the Tories.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    From the locals maybe - but I’m not sure they actually put that many candidates up.

    The appetite to vote for a RefUK/BXP/Kipper party is there, as shown in the Blackpool South by-election.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    As I said earlier, the dog was barking but was not let out of the kennel.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,574

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Yes. I think it shows that their vote share in the polls does not exist on the ground.

    They can win 15% or so, in their best areas, but not across the board.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,688
    ydoethur said:

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Surely outright lying demonstrates she has the right qualities to be Trump’s VP. Whoever he picks will have to tell at least some lies (e.g., he really won in 2020).
    Also:

    He doesn't sexually assault women
    He doesn't commit tax fraud
    He has a decent haircut.
    Robert Kennedy? If Trump thinks he's taking more votes off him than off Biden. Upside for Kennedy is that Trump may well die in office.
    He's 75 on Betfair for Trump's VP. Is that a value bet or a trading bet?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Didn’t they only field 300 candidates?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,023
    Sean_F said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Yes. I think it shows that their vote share in the polls does not exist on the ground.

    They can win 15% or so, in their best areas, but not across the board.
    Unlikely to get major party status for the General Election then...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Heathener said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Didn’t they only field 300 candidates?
    I do wonder if they’re actually vetting their candidates now.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Cyclefree said:

    Today is, apparently, World Naked Gardening Day.

    Which sounds like a bloody stupid idea.

    I will leave the "pruning your bushes" jokes to @ydoethur and others.

    Not if you live next door to.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,574
    Heathener said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Didn’t they only field 300 candidates?
    It was one sixth of the total, but they chose areas where UKIP did well. Even in Sunderland, they did not run the Conservatives close (but likely cost them one seat).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,865
    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Didn’t they only field 300 candidates?
    I do wonder if they’re actually vetting their candidates now.
    They're already full of dopes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Tories take one off Labour in North Tyneside and sit 4 behind the LDs.
    Fun fight for second!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,486

    Andy_JS said:

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    No, we've only had 2 out of 14 results.
    I suspect outer London will show a swing against Khan, and a higher turnout, but that won't be enough.

    I just hope he goes sub 45% otherwise I lose all my band stakes and, whilst having some profit overall, I still won't be be the happiest of bunnies.
    Could go either way.

    One one hand, ULEZ resentment is definitely a thing, and Hall is an outer London candidate in a way that Bailey wasn't.

    On the other, the watershed between Labour inner London and Conservative outer London is continuing to ripple out. And the national swing is what it is. If Hall can keep the swing against her to 5% or so, that's good for her and poor for Khan.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,913
    Ghedebrav said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    From the locals maybe - but I’m not sure they actually put that many candidates up.

    The appetite to vote for a RefUK/BXP/Kipper party is there, as shown in the Blackpool South by-election.
    The Reform puzzle is part of the wider puzzle. If Blackpool South is the guide, the Tories are destroyed by a pincer movement from Labour and Reform. If the Curtice/BBC/Sky vote share conclusion are your guide Labour may or may not get to 325 seats in a GE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,025

    NEW THREAD

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Cyclefree said:

    Today is, apparently, World Naked Gardening Day.

    Which sounds like a bloody stupid idea.

    I will leave the "pruning your bushes" jokes to @ydoethur and others.

    Not if you live next door to.....
    There are very, very few things that ought to be done naked. Bathing is the main one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,013
    Interesting little vid interviewing MAGA 'Christian Nationalists" and exploring their
    actual thoughts around Church & State, personal and corporate beliefs, and Mr Trump's Jewish Grandchildren.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUBZGWuhgc4
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    Andy_JS said:

    I am going to pull my hair out at the roots if Hall wins. People wanted to punish labour for Gaza and in return they put a far right crackpot like Hall... talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. It reminds me of brexit.... that also went through due to passive voters. 🤷🤷🤷

    Hall has lost. Stop worrying.
    Has she lost officially? Has it been called?
    No, we've only had 2 out of 14 results.
    I suspect outer London will show a swing against Khan, and a higher turnout, but that won't be enough.

    I just hope he goes sub 45% otherwise I lose all my band stakes and, whilst having some profit overall, I still won't be be the happiest of bunnies.
    Could go either way.

    One one hand, ULEZ resentment is definitely a thing, and Hall is an outer London candidate in a way that Bailey wasn't.

    On the other, the watershed between Labour inner London and Conservative outer London is continuing to ripple out. And the national swing is what it is. If Hall can keep the swing against her to 5% or so, that's good for her and poor for Khan.
    I suspect that those predicting a Khan win by 10% are likely to have been close to the truth. Far closer than it should have been, especially against such a poor Tory candidate.

    Labour really need to start planning for Khan's replacement.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    rkrkrk said:

    Roger said:

    I can't help thinking SKS tethering himself to Netanyahu and the IDF wasn't smart. It served him well in establishing his anti anti-semitism credentials but it's landed him in a trap.

    Israel's PR is going down the toilet. Countries are queuing up to take them to various courts for war crimes. Their country is being openly called 'apartheid'.

    Obviously it's not going down well with the 6.5% of Muslims in the UK but more important it's not going down well with those who were once known as 'Guardianistas'.

    The student revolts in the US are now spreading to Europe as are the demonstrations. Sweden are campaigning for them to be kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. 'If Russian could be thrown out so should Israel' their argument goes.

    Spring is the time for these movements to veer out of control. Starmer is already being asked difficult questions. "Why did you say Israel had the right to switch off electricity and water to Gaza when it's a war crime?"

    He lied and they have the footage. Things might start to move in unexpected ways.



    His biggest political mistake so far I think. He tried to pick the safe course and failed. I know one lady who's planning to abstain (she lives in marginal seat) as a result.

    Personally I think she'll regret it - she hates the Tories and will be gutted if they get in again and can't really expect a Starmer condemnation to actually help anyone in Gaza... but it's her vote not mine...
    Yes, we have lost votes and seats to Hamas candidates in various towns and cities, including in my patch on Bradford Council. But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters.

    The right strategy with the right result.
    Leaving aside the more important point that Labour's position here should be primarily based on what is morally and ethically right, it is bizarre that any Labour supporter still thinks that Starmer has been pursuing the "right strategy" on Gaza in terms of party political considerations. For someone who for the first couple of years had been pretty sure footed politically, Starmer's positioning has been surprisingly politically inept. Labour has undoubtably lost the trust and votes of a large swathe of Muslim voters, as well as having given a reason to others on the left to finally break with voting Labour and there is no way that that has been counterbalanced by any significant extra votes gained from elsewhere. That may not matter in a 2024 general election, but it could be decisive in at 2029 general election.

    I have found it hard to find anyone in the Labour Party who thinks that Starmer has taken the right course, and that includes many elected representatives. It is not anything but an opinion confined to the remnants of the Corbyn far left, the opinion "we would have been better voting for Nandy not Starmer" is becoming widespread.

    What is ironic is that Labour has spent the past 7 months rowing back on Starmer's original position, such that the position taken now would not have caused the same reaction had it been taken initially, but that rowing back has never been quite enough to offset the damage done. To give an example: while the Lib Dems are now calling for a halt to arms exports to Israel, Lammy contented himself with calling for the government's legal evidence to be published in the full knowledge that that would not happen. Why couldn't Labour just say that it's own legal advice was that Israel had been committing war crimes, and that it would therefore support an arms embargo unless the government published evidence to the contrary?

    I just hope that when the combined share of the Independent (Yakoob) and Green vote is added together in the West Midlands mayoral election, the penny finally drops. Perhaps it already has, but unless Labour takes a harder stance towards Israel now the damage will persist:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68956784
    Thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response.

    I wil, respectfully disagree.

    Taking a position to placate voters with Hamas sympathies is what would have been morally reprehensible.

    Taking a position that we know will lose us votes in Muslim areas and amongst the SWP-lite end of Labour has been done for a variety of reasons. Yea, some tactical, but predominantly moral.

    At least, that's what I think.
    I could respectfully disagree with you too but I object strongly to you crassly characterising anyone who strongly objects to the conduct of the appalling Israeli government and its armed forced as having supposed "Hamas sympathies", including of course myself. "SWP-lite" is also an insult to me by the way, I am anything but.

    I also made it clear at the start of my reply to you that Labour's position should be "primarily based on what is morally and ethically right" and that is why I am so appalled with Starmer. It was you that sought to justify Starmer's actions in political terms (".... But we've been gaining votes and seats from the Tories where it matters"). Only in order to debunk those claims of yours did I point out the actual political consequences in my reply.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,709
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Is one take from the locals that Reform is the dog that didn't bark in the night?

    Didn’t they only field 300 candidates?
    It was one sixth of the total, but they chose areas where UKIP did well. Even in Sunderland, they did not run the Conservatives close (but likely cost them one seat).
    As I said earlier they didn't choose anywhere. If someone wanted to be a candidate in a ward then they chose them. That was the limit of their planning
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,597
    edited May 4

    Puppy-shooter Kristi Noem, Republican Governor of South Dakota, now having to admit the story in her memoir of meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was, how to put this, a lie.

    I think you can safely strike her from the list of Trump's 2024 running mates....

    Not that lying, self aggrandising nonsense, and endless bullcrap are things he has a problem with (to answer Dura Ace's point), but his fans tend to be less accomodating of that stuff with people besides him, so he needs someone steadier.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,351
    So I essayed a bit of gardening - planting out hostas, geums and brunneras. I am not exactly sylph-like though I have been slowly losing weight. Anyway, as I dug and planted and weeded, I found my trousers slowly falling down until - well, how can I put this - I was gardening in my pants which seemed to be making the same attempt to force me to become a Naked Gardener. Then I fell over into the honey bush - euphorbia mellifera, for any filthy minds out there.

    Nice as it is to find one's clothes a bit too big for you, this was not the time to discover this. And so I had to retreat into the house - muddy and au naturel - before I scandalised the local birds, sheep and passing dog-walkers.

    A picture of the euphorbia below - it has a magnificent smell of honey and the orange bracts set against the zingy green leaves make it look like an abstract painting. It is a thug, mind, and does need cutting back so falling into it and the enforced pruning that followed was probably necessary.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,865
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Today is, apparently, World Naked Gardening Day.

    Which sounds like a bloody stupid idea.

    I will leave the "pruning your bushes" jokes to @ydoethur and others.

    Not if you live next door to.....
    There are very, very few things that ought to be done naked. Bathing is the main one.
    @Ghedebrav

    I am genuinely surprised you think bathing is the most important activity to do naked.

    I mean, it's not something that overly affects me as an asexual, but I understand shagging is considered marginally more important by most...
This discussion has been closed.