I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Unless you are BJO in which case the next Tory Prime Minister will be Sir Keir Starmer.
Disappointed none of you Philistines have picked up on my subtle Shakespeare reference.
We are not used to Shakespeare on here 👍
Dig in jolly Pubman, tonight’s supper of worms, for soon as screaming eagles espie scenes of vermicious verisimilitude, its cry shall rouse the Green Gorgons upon us, so only the most lamentable resignation can follow.
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
I have no idea what you're talking about sorry, but if politicians weren't allowed to attempt to discredit their opponents then there wouldn't be many politicians left.
Attempts to discredit are fine. This chap has been reported to the police. Which is fine if there are reasonable grounds to do so, but if nico679 is correct, then it would be beyond what is reasonable to make a police report on a phony basis.
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
He’s a carpetbagger?
The allegation seems to be that he is an unlawful carpetbagger, which is a very different accusation if true.
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
The former Prince of Wales, now King Charles, once shouted in my general direction
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Is it so blurred so as not to doxx the photo of Leon?
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Keir could be a terrible PM. He could be a slightly crappy PM (that is the standard). Mabe we'll be lucky and he'll be a good PM if he wins.
Nothing wrong with predicting why any of those scenarios are likely, but accepting a 90% chance of it rather than 100% may be sensible.
Poor Brits are increasingly sicker and dying younger that their rich counterparts
Our ruling classes do not know us, do not like us, do not care for or about us, and only consider us as beasts of burden to be excoriated if not sufficiently hard working or simply replaced. They are Bad People.
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
The former Prince of Wales, now King Charles, once shouted in my general direction
"What a load of fucking shit"
You always remind me of that special moment
Was he referring to you, or commenting on the situation?
Ballot is tomorrow, obvs, but looking at the odds tonight and how tight they are Houchen looks home and dry.
He's almost as short in price as Khan.
As he won 73-27 in 2021, it's astonishing it's even been a contest. If he wins 55-43 it's still a massive swing to Labour. Street has done rather better to give himself more than a fighting chance and his win will show the merits of disassociating yourself from the national party.
Hall has done okay if she gets above 30% - even Savanta has Khan ahead in Outer London which is astonishing but the 2021 experience makes me a little wary of these polls.
Elsewhere, the PCC elections and Council elections are likely to be unpleasant for the Conservatives but there just aren't the volume of seats to lose as there were in 2022 and 2023 and will be next year.
I've put up my eight predictions so we'll see how they go.
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Who, exactly, do you class as right wing on here? Anybody to the right of you (pretty much everyone!)? Or do you have a little list?
Ballot is tomorrow, obvs, but looking at the odds tonight and how tight they are Houchen looks home and dry.
He's almost as short in price as Khan.
As he won 73-27 in 2021, it's astonishing it's even been a contest. If he wins 55-43 it's still a massive swing to Labour. Street has done rather better to give himself more than a fighting chance and his win will show the merits of disassociating yourself from the national party.
Hall has done okay if she gets above 30% - even Savanta has Khan ahead in Outer London which is astonishing but the 2021 experience makes me a little wary of these polls.
Elsewhere, the PCC elections and Council elections are likely to be unpleasant for the Conservatives but there just aren't the volume of seats to lose as there were in 2022 and 2023 and will be next year.
I've put up my eight predictions so we'll see how they go.
If a result within 10 gives Labour hope of winning all the constituencies at the GE, then how come Houchen keeps winning?
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
The former Prince of Wales, now King Charles, once shouted in my general direction
"What a load of fucking shit"
You always remind me of that special moment
Was he referring to you, or commenting on the situation?
His own polo playing performance, I think
But I was about twenty yards away, working with the farrier
He threw his polo stick (mallet?) very close to his man servant
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Who, exactly, do you class as right wing on here? Anybody to the right of you (pretty much everyone!)? Or do you have a little list?
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
He’s a carpetbagger?
The allegation seems to be that he is an unlawful carpetbagger, which is a very different accusation if true.
Guido's not been doing well lately, mind. Though tbf GBeebies haven't, either.
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
I have no idea what you're talking about sorry, but if politicians weren't allowed to attempt to discredit their opponents then there wouldn't be many politicians left.
The Tories decide 24 hrs before the vote to make a complaint to the police about the Labour candidates eligibility to stand .
Ballot is tomorrow, obvs, but looking at the odds tonight and how tight they are Houchen looks home and dry.
He's almost as short in price as Khan.
As he won 73-27 in 2021, it's astonishing it's even been a contest. If he wins 55-43 it's still a massive swing to Labour. Street has done rather better to give himself more than a fighting chance and his win will show the merits of disassociating yourself from the national party.
Hall has done okay if she gets above 30% - even Savanta has Khan ahead in Outer London which is astonishing but the 2021 experience makes me a little wary of these polls.
Elsewhere, the PCC elections and Council elections are likely to be unpleasant for the Conservatives but there just aren't the volume of seats to lose as there were in 2022 and 2023 and will be next year.
I've put up my eight predictions so we'll see how they go.
If a result within 10 gives Labour hope of winning all the constituencies at the GE, then how come Houchen keeps winning?
I presume Houchen, Street and to an extent Hall are able to attract voters who wouldn't vote Conservative at a General Election. This may be because, in the instances of Houchen and Street, they have been able to disassociate themselves from the national Government and run on their "local" records.
The Savanta poll, which puts Hall within ten points of Khan, still shows Labour thirty points ahead in London at a GE.
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
I have no idea what you're talking about sorry, but if politicians weren't allowed to attempt to discredit their opponents then there wouldn't be many politicians left.
The Tories decide 24 hrs before the vote to make a complaint to the police about the Labour candidates eligibility to stand .
If he is innocent, then it’s definitely shitty behaviour. If not, then it’s on him. I think we are entering a poor state of affairs when politicians start using the police and legal issues to go after opponents. But I don’t think it’s just the Tories that have done this.
O/T but for those of us who like maps, lots more maps on the NLS website, nls.uk/maps. Notably commercial/specialist maps of GB/UK, and lots more old town maps from all over the UK. From Aberdare to York.
Edit: this might appeal - "Map showing the Race Meetings for 1907; with dates, distances from London, and railway connections; also the training quarters and the trainers at each."
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
To be fair, I don't feel sure exactly what Sir Keir is supposed to be saying (he has no power to do anything, he's in opposition) that will excite his PB critics and win an election. At the moment serious players are suggesting he may get a majority of +200 (while I would be delighted if he got 320 seats). What exactly is he doing wrong?
Yes, Starmer is playing the right game to win the election - continue to convince wavering Conservatives he is no threat and life will go on much as usual if he wins. After 14 years of Conservastive-led Government the stench of decay, especially over the past four years, is palpable and while I'm no Conservtative, the idea of voting to put them both out of their misery and ours is seriously attractive.
The fear must be it will be 10 years of drift and that's the challenge - with a huge majority, Starmer can afford to be radical (Blair could as well and we'll never know what a second term might have been like as the events of September 11th 2001 transformed both the domestic and international agenda in ways which could not have been foreseen).
Starmer of course must be aware such things could happen on this watch - after all, Covid torpedoed Johnson's plans completely. Will there be a rush to be radical in the first term? Perhaps and not explaining that radicalism now will irritate some but the voters Starmer needs to win don't want to hear radical now - whether they will when he has a 200+ majority (if that happens) remains to be seen.
The thing about being able to afford being radical needs a bit of fleshing out. A 200 majority means he can get stuff through parliament; but 200 majority doesn't get stuff through the fiscal and economic facts of life. Truss knows a bit about this.
A fiscally worked out mode of radicalism, with due regard for tax, spend, debt, deficit, interest payments, the city, the Bank of England, the voter and international finance is awaited. Suggestions on a postcard.
O/T but for those of us who like maps, lots more maps on the NLS website, nls.uk/maps. Notably commercial/specialist maps of GB/UK, and lots more old town maps from all over the UK. From Aberdare to York.
Edit: this might appeal - "Map showing the Race Meetings for 1907; with dates, distances from London, and railway connections; also the training quarters and the trainers at each."
With respect to mayoral elections, one thing that UKers are NOT much used to, but which USers take for granted, is the psycological-electoral-psephological difference between a LEGISLATIVE position, such as MP, Member of Congress, legislator, councillors, etc. on one hand, and EXECUTIVE offices, for example POTUS, state governors, MAYORS, etc.
In general in the USA, congressional/legislative elections tend to be somewhat more ideological, partisan and tied to national opinion, events, tendencies.
Whereas elections for elective office tend to be less so. Which is NOT saying that ideology, party & big picture trends are absent. Just that other factors have more scope, such as:
> candidate personality, resume & personal platform > incumbency bigger plus, especially for one-term office-holds seeking re-election > even with significant governing challenges PROVIDED lack of HUGE screwups attributable to incumbent. > indeed, an incumbent mayor, etc. considered reasonably competent can often win multiple re-election despite strong political headwinds (for example, my favorite example Fiorello La Guardia of NYC, a GOP progressive in city dominated politically by Tammany Hall Democrats. > also some tendency for voters to "even things up" somewhat, by voting for an executive candidate running counter to their legislative voting tendency; for example, in Massachusetts where Mitt Romney and other GOPers have been elected governor number of time, despite strong-to-overwhelming Democratic majorities for the State House AND Congress.
In a knifeedge state at least a few Republicans do not want this issue hanging over all their candidates come November.
Arizona Senate voted (16-14) to repeal a strict 1864 abortion ban that was recently ruled enforceable by the state Supreme Court. Two Republicans sided with Democrats to pass the bill. The bill will be sent to Governor Hobbs for signing. https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1785768969061728449#m
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
The former Prince of Wales, now King Charles, once shouted in my general direction
Is their a website somewhere with a list of when we can expect the results? I'm assuming the London Mayor one will be massively delayed as it always is and won't announce until Saturday.
This is the Press Association page, but they haven't updated it like they said they would, by the end of April.
Is their a website somewhere with a list of when we can expect the results? I'm assuming the London Mayor one will be massively delayed as it always is and won't announce until Saturday.
This is the Press Association page, but they haven't updated it like they said they would, by the end of April.
Is their a website somewhere with a list of when we can expect the results? I'm assuming the London Mayor one will be massively delayed as it always is and won't announce until Saturday.
This is the Press Association page, but they haven't updated it like they said they would, by the end of April.
They are not even going to start counting the London results until 9am on Saturday.
I must say I know a lot of election workers, and deeply respect all they do, but the professionals mostly do not like overnight counting, understandably, and are not really concerned with speedy counting at all (even when there are not multiple elections to deal with), it is the one point I fall out with them about.
Ballot is tomorrow, obvs, but looking at the odds tonight and how tight they are Houchen looks home and dry.
He's almost as short in price as Khan.
As he won 73-27 in 2021, it's astonishing it's even been a contest. If he wins 55-43 it's still a massive swing to Labour. Street has done rather better to give himself more than a fighting chance and his win will show the merits of disassociating yourself from the national party.
Hall has done okay if she gets above 30% - even Savanta has Khan ahead in Outer London which is astonishing but the 2021 experience makes me a little wary of these polls.
Elsewhere, the PCC elections and Council elections are likely to be unpleasant for the Conservatives but there just aren't the volume of seats to lose as there were in 2022 and 2023 and will be next year.
I've put up my eight predictions so we'll see how they go.
Are you now backing down on the 500 seat losses you were confident of on Monday evening?
That is showing direction of travel away from Labour this week, as now betting markets have also turned against 500 Tory losses.
We need measurements, no matter what little volume of seats are up for grabs and A strong one is when it comes to PNS and NEV, we should be looking at the share Labour get rather than margin of victory - as that number shows enthusiasm for Starmer, his ability to get vote out when matters, and that no point getting big poll leads if your votes at elections massively underperform those polls.
Ed Milliband got a 38% PNS in 2012 and Blair 46% in 1995 - Starmer has been stuck in the mid 30s, continuing to fall behind both former leaders must be telling us something important about how Starmer’s Labour are still being regarded as uninspiring and unwanted, despite a polling lead donated by a tired unpopular government.
Blair got an PNS of 46% in 1995, proving he could get the vote out when it matters, not performing way below polling levels in real elections. Starmer needs at least a 39% PNS tomorrow, is that fair? Or should it be higher, 40%? or else we wonder if Labour can get the votes promised by polls, or expect them to badly underperform the polls at the General Election?
O/T but for those of us who like maps, lots more maps on the NLS website, nls.uk/maps. Notably commercial/specialist maps of GB/UK, and lots more old town maps from all over the UK. From Aberdare to York.
Edit: this might appeal - "Map showing the Race Meetings for 1907; with dates, distances from London, and railway connections; also the training quarters and the trainers at each."
Mrs Flatlander is usually glued to that site when trying to determine historic land use.
The horses travelled by train in 1907 of course. There was a paddock specifically for the racehouses near Flatland Central (Glasgow Paddocks), which was obviously busy during St Leger Week. Now buried under various council offices, and visible in one of those lovely new layers...
I don’t find it odd . Just trying to get the vote out .
Some 'journalist' was claiming it was a close race earlier and to vote Khan with the same sentiments - I suspect they are more worried about low turnout, but given how weak the Tory candidate is, there's little to no prospect of a win.
In other news, I've conducted an opinion poll of my immediate family and Andy Burnham is polling at 100%.
Never seen parties downplay an easy victory before?
See also how oppositions use wins in safe seat by-elections as some kind of sign the country has turned against the government - it might be true, but that itself is not a sign of it.
Seems oddly cheap to be honest. Why can't a super billionaire pay for stuff like that and ensure their name lives on forever?
Well if it was a U.K. build, that price would definitely end up around 4x that.
I almost fell out my chair reading this story years ago - I had no idea such a thing was possible.
The world's longest and deepest rail tunnel has officially opened in Switzerland, after almost two decades of construction work.
Now the completed tunnel, delivered on time and within budget, will create a mainline rail connection between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Genoa in Italy. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36423250
Maybe there are even defence or IT projects in the world which are not massive white elephants?
My Dad's up for election tommorow. The ward (Wainbody, Coventry) has been Conservative since it was created in 1980 - and one of the councillors, Tim Sawdon who was elected in 1980 is still a serving councillor ! Closest result was in 1995 when Labour came within 79 votes of defeating sitting councillor Gary Crookes who sadly died in 2019.
2023 result was
Con 49.1% Labour 36% Green 7.1%
Anecdotally he's had people saying they'll vote for him but not Conservative in the GE.
I don’t find it odd . Just trying to get the vote out .
Some 'journalist' was claiming it was a close race earlier and to vote Khan with the same sentiments - I suspect they are more worried about low turnout, but given how weak the Tory candidate is, there's little to no prospect of a win.
In other news, I've conducted an opinion poll of my immediate family and Andy Burnham is polling at 100%.
Same with mine. Although only one of them has a vote anymore.
My Dad's up for election tommorow. The ward (Wainbody, Coventry) has been Conservative since it was created in 1980 - and one of the councillors, Tim Sawdon who was elected in 1980 is still a serving councillor ! Closest result was in 1995 when Labour came within 79 votes of defeating sitting councillor Gary Crookes who sadly died in 2019.
2023 result was
Con 49.1% Labour 36% Green 7.1%
Anecdotally he's had people saying they'll vote for him but not Conservative in the GE.
My Dad's up for election tommorow. The ward (Wainbody, Coventry) has been Conservative since it was created in 1980 - and one of the councillors, Tim Sawdon who was elected in 1980 is still a serving councillor ! Closest result was in 1995 when Labour came within 79 votes of defeating sitting councillor Gary Crookes who sadly died in 2019.
2023 result was
Con 49.1% Labour 36% Green 7.1%
Anecdotally he's had people saying they'll vote for him but not Conservative in the GE.
Good luck to your dad. Hope he can survive the red wave!
I think the Home Office missed a trick . Why stop just at handcuffs , perhaps they could have put hoods on them and given them a beating and waterboarding for good measure !
The saddest thing is The Anderson fan club will be overcome with excitement . Some of those bundled into the vans in ordinary circumstances could have had their asylum claims accepted !
The Tories are just a cesspit of hate and cruelty .
I don’t find it odd . Just trying to get the vote out .
Some 'journalist' was claiming it was a close race earlier and to vote Khan with the same sentiments - I suspect they are more worried about low turnout, but given how weak the Tory candidate is, there's little to no prospect of a win.
In other news, I've conducted an opinion poll of my immediate family and Andy Burnham is polling at 100%.
Same with mine. Although only one of them has a vote anymore.
Same with just about everyone I know.
He'll probably have the largest majority of all the mayors this time around.
Curious conversation today with my good tory Surrey friend with whom I’m staying again this week.
She said to me, ‘Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson.’
I was speechless and thought I must have misheard but another friend heard it and was equally astonished by it. So my good friend repeated the claim. I’ve put it in bold partly because it’s so astonishing and partly because it’ll catch the eye
After a long period of thinking she knew nothing about Starmer and nothing about Labour’s policies my friend has now come to the conclusion that, 'like Boris,' he’s a man of the people: ‘he’s listening to what really matters to people.’
It’ll be dismissed out of hand by the likes of CR who seems to think any anecdotes are the mark of the troll, which doesn’t matter. Perhaps more pertinently I don’t imagine it’s a view widely held by many hitherto tory voters.
But suppose it is? Suppose Starmer is cutting through? I’ve heard elsewhere that he’s gaining traction amongst older voters.
Anyway, I am still astonished by the comment and offer it humbly and verbatim.
Is their a website somewhere with a list of when we can expect the results? I'm assuming the London Mayor one will be massively delayed as it always is and won't announce until Saturday.
This is the Press Association page, but they haven't updated it like they said they would, by the end of April.
They are not even going to start counting the London results until 9am on Saturday.
I must say I know a lot of election workers, and deeply respect all they do, but the professionals mostly do not like overnight counting, understandably, and are not really concerned with speedy counting at all (even when there are not multiple elections to deal with), it is the one point I fall out with them about.
the issue this time is the tories have banned electronic counting for 'reasons' so they have to count the 3 ballot papers manually.
Never seen parties downplay an easy victory before?
See also how oppositions use wins in safe seat by-elections as some kind of sign the country has turned against the government - it might be true, but that itself is not a sign of it.
The big picture is that a Conservative win in London probably needs to unpick a triple lock, as Boris did in 2008.
Strong Conservative candidate (and Boris is a strong candidate, the first time you meet him.) Weak Labour candidate (by 2008, bits were beginning to drop off Ken, albeit not as much as in 2012.) Reasonably favourable, or at least tolerable national position.
Hall is not a serious candidate, though she has identified and played to the right issues for her base. Khan is offensively bland, but most people don't mind that. The national situation for the government is horrible.
O/T but for those of us who like maps, lots more maps on the NLS website, nls.uk/maps. Notably commercial/specialist maps of GB/UK, and lots more old town maps from all over the UK. From Aberdare to York.
Edit: this might appeal - "Map showing the Race Meetings for 1907; with dates, distances from London, and railway connections; also the training quarters and the trainers at each."
Mrs Flatlander is usually glued to that site when trying to determine historic land use.
The horses travelled by train in 1907 of course. There was a paddock specifically for the racehouses near Flatland Central (Glasgow Paddocks), which was obviously busy during St Leger Week. Now buried under various council offices, and visible in one of those lovely new layers...
I don't wish to set some people off, but I realised I really don't know what is down with the hip youth today when seeing this picture from a US College protest and having no clue what they are seeking.
I mean, it's something to do with LGBT+ and Palestine, clearly, but I obviously don't know enough of the detail anymore to figure out the specific demand.
Seems oddly cheap to be honest. Why can't a super billionaire pay for stuff like that and ensure their name lives on forever?
It could be a significant game changer for that region of Morocco. It always seemed wrong that the part of the country closest to the riches of the EU is also the poorest and most troubled, while the South and West are where the money is.
A tunnel plus their proper port facilities and some targeted industrial infrastructure and Tangier and region could be a nearshoring hotspot. That plus electricity exports from solar farms further South.
I expect the impact on migration would be pretty limited because the straits are already very narrow but most migrants go elsewhere where the smugglers can act with impunity. And if anything some industrial development in the North might boost resources for policing and security.
I mean you get all sorts of odd balls and weirdo's coming out of the woodwork during Elections.
Did Susan Hall even know she was "campaigning" with this fella or what his views are?
Don't forget that guy from PB (Martin Day?) who was nominally "campaigning" for the Conservatives when he was arrested for assaulting Labour activists in Election 2010.
Was David Cameron personally responsible for that?
Absolutely disgraceful and shameful efforts by the Tories in the West Midlands .
Street deserves to lose for being part of this last minute campaign to discredit his opponent . The Labour candidate already fulfills the criteria to stand regardless of where he lives because of his business interests in the area .
He’s a carpetbagger?
The allegation seems to be that he is an unlawful carpetbagger, which is a very different accusation if true.
My brother knows Andy Street a little and describes him as ‘a weasel’ and with ‘a very nasty piece of work as partner’.
And, noooooo, that’s doesn’t mean my bro’ is being homophobic. He’s gay.
Hah. In Adam Zamoyski’s Napoleon he talks about Napoleon’s attitude to religion (about which bonaparte cared a lot: he was a deist)
Napoleon deeply criticised the French Revolution because it took away the “sense of the numinous”. Those are the words Zamoyski uses
This actually reinforces something I’ve been thinking for a while. I know this will provoke more skeptical and materialist PB-ers, but for a long time I’ve thought I am actually a reincarnation of Napoleon Bonaparte. And I am increasingly sure it is true, given the plentiful evidence, which I surely don’t need to adduce here
Have you ever felt the urge to conquer mainland Europe? If so, you might be on to something.
I was born on the same day as Napoleon. Is that simply coincidence? Or something more than that? You decide. It’s your call
But when you add that in, then it all looks a lot more ambiguous doesn’t it?
There will always be nay sayers that I can never convince. I pay them no heed
My son was born on the same day as Napoleon's death, 177 years later, and - unlike you - is directly descended from him. And he doesn't talk batshit nonsense either.
Curious conversation today with my good tory Surrey friend with whom I’m staying again this week.
She said to me, ‘Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson.’
I was speechless and thought I must have misheard but another friend heard it and was equally astonished by it. So my good friend repeated the claim. I’ve put it in bold partly because it’s so astonishing and partly because it’ll catch the eye
After a long period of thinking she knew nothing about Starmer and nothing about Labour’s policies my friend has now come to the conclusion that, 'like Boris,' he’s a man of the people: ‘he’s listening to what really matters to people.’
It’ll be dismissed out of hand by the likes of CR who seems to think any anecdotes are the mark of the troll, which doesn’t matter. Perhaps more pertinently I don’t imagine it’s a view widely held by many hitherto tory voters.
But suppose it is? Suppose Starmer is cutting through? I’ve heard elsewhere that he’s gaining traction amongst older voters.
Anyway, I am still astonished by the comment and offer it humbly and verbatim.
I definitely get the sense that Starmer connects far better with ordinary folk than Sunak, although that’s not a high bar (stop sniggering at the back - Ed). I assume your friend likes Johnson, otherwise comparing Starmer with the serially lying, shagging, shambling lump of dishonesty is a bit harsh.
Seems oddly cheap to be honest. Why can't a super billionaire pay for stuff like that and ensure their name lives on forever?
It could be a significant game changer for that region of Morocco. It always seemed wrong that the part of the country closest to the riches of the EU is also the poorest and most troubled, while the South and West are where the money is.
A tunnel plus proper port facilities and some targeted industrial infrastructure and Tangier and region could be a nearshoring hotspot. That plus electricity exports from solar farms further South.
I expect the impact on migration would be pretty limited because the straits are already very narrow but most migrants go elsewhere where the smugglers can act with impunity. And if anything some industrial development in the North might boost resources for policing and security.
Isn't Africa going to collide with Europe in 10 million years or something in any case? Seems like a waste of funds.
Has the Hall campaign been as outrageous as he is implying? (I don’t live in London so have no idea).
Yeah they have been peddling thinly disguised racism against Khan and lies about ULEZ on social media for months. I'm just surprised no senior opposition politician had called it out earlier.
Curious conversation today with my good tory Surrey friend with whom I’m staying again this week.
She said to me, ‘Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson.’
I was speechless and thought I must have misheard but another friend heard it and was equally astonished by it. So my good friend repeated the claim. I’ve put it in bold partly because it’s so astonishing and partly because it’ll catch the eye
After a long period of thinking she knew nothing about Starmer and nothing about Labour’s policies my friend has now come to the conclusion that, 'like Boris,' he’s a man of the people: ‘he’s listening to what really matters to people.’
It’ll be dismissed out of hand by the likes of CR who seems to think any anecdotes are the mark of the troll, which doesn’t matter. Perhaps more pertinently I don’t imagine it’s a view widely held by many hitherto tory voters.
But suppose it is? Suppose Starmer is cutting through? I’ve heard elsewhere that he’s gaining traction amongst older voters.
Anyway, I am still astonished by the comment and offer it humbly and verbatim.
Well they both partied during lockdown (but one got away with it and one didn't)
Other than that, I can't really see much similarity....
Since we got on to the radiant Rosie, I want to say what I bet she's thinking
If a man thinks that he should be a woman, and wants to dress up as a woman and "live" as a woman, then I'll call him his girly name and use his girly pronouns
But if you actually expect me to believe, or even pretend to believe beyond the girly names, that this man is a woman, then you need checking in for psychiatric treatment
Has the Hall campaign been as outrageous as he is implying? (I don’t live in London so have no idea).
Yeah they have been peddling thinly disguised racism against Khan and lies about ULEZ on social media for months. I'm just surprised no senior opposition politician had called it out earlier.
When he's about 80 years old Khan might decide to convert to becoming a violence supporting religious extremist, after decades of people trying baselessly to imply he was one.
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Is it so blurred so as not to doxx the photo of Leon?
Lol. Indeed. I’m not really sure why it went so blurred.
Has the Hall campaign been as outrageous as he is implying? (I don’t live in London so have no idea).
Yeah they have been peddling thinly disguised racism against Khan and lies about ULEZ on social media for months. I'm just surprised no senior opposition politician had called it out earlier.
I’ve seen some of the stuff about road pricing. Isnt that based on things Khan has written, but now claims to not wish to do? I think it’s fair to suggest that it’s something that might happen, even if only to get Khan to commit to not doing it. If he renews, it’s on his record for next time.
Hah. In Adam Zamoyski’s Napoleon he talks about Napoleon’s attitude to religion (about which bonaparte cared a lot: he was a deist)
Napoleon deeply criticised the French Revolution because it took away the “sense of the numinous”. Those are the words Zamoyski uses
This actually reinforces something I’ve been thinking for a while. I know this will provoke more skeptical and materialist PB-ers, but for a long time I’ve thought I am actually a reincarnation of Napoleon Bonaparte. And I am increasingly sure it is true, given the plentiful evidence, which I surely don’t need to adduce here
Have you ever felt the urge to conquer mainland Europe? If so, you might be on to something.
I was born on the same day as Napoleon. Is that simply coincidence? Or something more than that? You decide. It’s your call
But when you add that in, then it all looks a lot more ambiguous doesn’t it?
There will always be nay sayers that I can never convince. I pay them no heed
My son was born on the same day as Napoleon's death, 177 years later, and - unlike you - is directly descended from him. And he doesn't talk batshit nonsense either.
You can fight it out with him, if you want.
I am the reincarnation of both Spinoza and Ian Botham!
I've pretty much lost track of Starmer's tedious tactical triangulations, but have we done this one?
"Labour set to unveil weakened package of workers’ rights. Shadow ministers have been discussing how to tone down some of pledges in ‘New Deal’ to ease employer misgivings", Financial Times, May 1 2024?, see https://archive.is/DdxXz
Or do we just throw it on the pile with the rest?
We're teaming with Employers up and down the country to give you an extensively limited package of vague and disappointing rights. Because they told us to. It's electoral gold
Starmer is going to be absolutely shit, isn’t he? He will have an enormous majority and he will do zero with it, apart from vaguely left wing things that are pointless and cheap (because there’s no money left). He will then try and appease his base with Woke crap
I suspect he will manage to throw away that vast majority within one term
That's exactly what's going to happen.
You are now endorsing Leondamus’ view of the world? The person who so emphatically declared to us that Liz Truss was a marvel, a diamond in the rough, a person who would win the next election for the Conservatives. Clearly it’s high time for the annual reminder:
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
Is it so blurred so as not to doxx the photo of Leon?
Lol. Indeed. I’m not really sure why it went so blurred.
I think that’s Vanilla reacting to too many photos this evening. There have been several.
Seems oddly cheap to be honest. Why can't a super billionaire pay for stuff like that and ensure their name lives on forever?
It could be a significant game changer for that region of Morocco. It always seemed wrong that the part of the country closest to the riches of the EU is also the poorest and most troubled, while the South and West are where the money is.
A tunnel plus proper port facilities and some targeted industrial infrastructure and Tangier and region could be a nearshoring hotspot. That plus electricity exports from solar farms further South.
I expect the impact on migration would be pretty limited because the straits are already very narrow but most migrants go elsewhere where the smugglers can act with impunity. And if anything some industrial development in the North might boost resources for policing and security.
Isn't Africa going to collide with Europe in 10 million years or something in any case? Seems like a waste of funds.
I suspect even Sunak could get it built more quickly, perhaps even 5 million years. As long as it wasn't for high speed trains.
Hah. In Adam Zamoyski’s Napoleon he talks about Napoleon’s attitude to religion (about which bonaparte cared a lot: he was a deist)
Napoleon deeply criticised the French Revolution because it took away the “sense of the numinous”. Those are the words Zamoyski uses
This actually reinforces something I’ve been thinking for a while. I know this will provoke more skeptical and materialist PB-ers, but for a long time I’ve thought I am actually a reincarnation of Napoleon Bonaparte. And I am increasingly sure it is true, given the plentiful evidence, which I surely don’t need to adduce here
Have you ever felt the urge to conquer mainland Europe? If so, you might be on to something.
I was born on the same day as Napoleon. Is that simply coincidence? Or something more than that? You decide. It’s your call
But when you add that in, then it all looks a lot more ambiguous doesn’t it?
There will always be nay sayers that I can never convince. I pay them no heed
My son was born on the same day as Napoleon's death, 177 years later, and - unlike you - is directly descended from him. And he doesn't talk batshit nonsense either.
Comments
There are an awful lot of right-wingers on here at the moment who are getting ever more irascible and irrational (an interesting combination) as their moment of Doom approaches.
You will have many, many, years of non-power to contemplate the error of your ways and it’s a shocking and chastening thought that many pb-ers will be dead before the Conservatives return to power in the UK. I might be one of them.
for soon as screaming eagles espie
scenes of vermicious verisimilitude,
its cry shall rouse the Green Gorgons upon us,
so only the most lamentable resignation
can follow.
Rabbit to Pubman - Act1 Upon A May Day’s Night
https://order-order.com/2024/05/01/labour-mayoral-candidate-reported-to-police/
"What a load of fucking shit"
You always remind me of that special moment
Nothing wrong with predicting why any of those scenarios are likely, but accepting a 90% chance of it rather than 100% may be sensible.
Our ruling classes do not know us, do not like us, do not care for or about us, and only consider us as beasts of burden to be excoriated if not sufficiently hard working or simply replaced. They are Bad People.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1785533814145417604#m
Hall has done okay if she gets above 30% - even Savanta has Khan ahead in Outer London which is astonishing but the 2021 experience makes me a little wary of these polls.
Elsewhere, the PCC elections and Council elections are likely to be unpleasant for the Conservatives but there just aren't the volume of seats to lose as there were in 2022 and 2023 and will be next year.
I've put up my eight predictions so we'll see how they go.
But I was about twenty yards away, working with the farrier
He threw his polo stick (mallet?) very close to his man servant
I'm not sure if it was meant to be at him
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24291168.scottish-parliament-calls-massively-wrong-story-humza-yousaf/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24291858.andrew-neil-red-faced-claim-yousaf-will-get-52k-year/
Oh dear, Day 2 of new post-Brexit border checks and the government’s IPAFFS has crashed.
EU imports have to be logged on IPAFFS to clear customs.
Went down 2 hours ago. Until it’s up again there are 2 options: 1) wave all lorries into UK. 2) send them to a Border Control Post.
The Savanta poll, which puts Hall within ten points of Khan, still shows Labour thirty points ahead in London at a GE.
https://order-order.com/2024/04/30/defected-tory-councillors-milf-porn-obsession/
Edit: this might appeal - "Map showing the Race Meetings for 1907; with dates, distances from London, and railway connections; also the training quarters and the trainers at each."
https://maps.nls.uk/countries/britain/rec/4149
Then shut down IPAFFS and never open it again.
There is no good reason to be checking EU products, just recognise them as equivalent and wave them through.
We should also recognise Australian/Kiwi and any other nation we have trade agreements with, whom we know have high standards, as equivalent too.
A fiscally worked out mode of radicalism, with due regard for tax, spend, debt, deficit, interest payments, the city, the Bank of England, the voter and international finance is awaited. Suggestions on a postcard.
I'm sure the Tories (or whats left of them) will welcome her with open arms if the worst comes to the worst.
In general in the USA, congressional/legislative elections tend to be somewhat more ideological, partisan and tied to national opinion, events, tendencies.
Whereas elections for elective office tend to be less so. Which is NOT saying that ideology, party & big picture trends are absent. Just that other factors have more scope, such as:
> candidate personality, resume & personal platform
> incumbency bigger plus, especially for one-term office-holds seeking re-election
> even with significant governing challenges PROVIDED lack of HUGE screwups attributable to incumbent.
> indeed, an incumbent mayor, etc. considered reasonably competent can often win multiple re-election despite strong political headwinds (for example, my favorite example Fiorello La Guardia of NYC, a GOP progressive in city dominated politically by Tammany Hall Democrats.
> also some tendency for voters to "even things up" somewhat, by voting for an executive candidate running counter to their legislative voting tendency; for example, in Massachusetts where Mitt Romney and other GOPers have been elected governor number of time, despite strong-to-overwhelming Democratic majorities for the State House AND Congress.
Arizona Senate voted (16-14) to repeal a strict 1864 abortion ban that was recently ruled enforceable by the state Supreme Court. Two Republicans sided with Democrats to pass the bill. The bill will be sent to Governor Hobbs for signing.
https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1785768969061728449#m
Take a look at yourself FFS.
She's a really brave woman who deserves huge respect
@AccountableGOP
·
59m
Donald Trump confirms he told the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol on January. 6:
https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP
That is showing direction of travel away from Labour this week, as now betting markets have also turned against 500 Tory losses.
We need measurements, no matter what little volume of seats are up for grabs and A strong one is when it comes to PNS and NEV, we should be looking at the share Labour get rather than margin of victory - as that number shows enthusiasm for Starmer, his ability to get vote out when matters, and that no point getting big poll leads if your votes at elections massively underperform those polls.
Ed Milliband got a 38% PNS in 2012 and Blair 46% in 1995 - Starmer has been stuck in the mid 30s, continuing to fall behind both former leaders must be telling us something important about how Starmer’s Labour are still being regarded as uninspiring and unwanted, despite a polling lead donated by a tired unpopular government.
Blair got an PNS of 46% in 1995, proving he could get the vote out when it matters, not performing way below polling levels in real elections. Starmer needs at least a 39% PNS tomorrow, is that fair? Or should it be higher, 40%? or else we wonder if Labour can get the votes promised by polls, or expect them to badly underperform the polls at the General Election?
The Wes Streeting tweet seems very odd otherwise.
Mrs Flatlander is usually glued to that site when trying to determine historic land use.
The horses travelled by train in 1907 of course. There was a paddock specifically for the racehouses near Flatland Central (Glasgow Paddocks), which was obviously busy during St Leger Week. Now buried under various council offices, and visible in one of those lovely new layers...
https://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/side-by-side/#zoom=18.5&lat=53.51908&lon=-1.13107&layers=117746211&right=OSLeisure
Edit: Anyway, the whole Rejoin debate will soon be a mute point when SKS fails to rejoin lol!
After 100 years, a rail crossing between Spain and Morocco could finally come to fruition"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/underwater-tunnel-link-spain-to-morocco-by-2030/
In other news, I've conducted an opinion poll of my immediate family and Andy Burnham is polling at 100%.
See also how oppositions use wins in safe seat by-elections as some kind of sign the country has turned against the government - it might be true, but that itself is not a sign of it.
@wesstreeting
A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over.
Susan Hall’s campaign has been fought from the gutter with dangerous and divisive politics.
London, we cannot let her win. Vote Sadiq."
I mean putting out a Tweet accusing your political opponents of being "White Supremacists" does seem a bit OTT?
Perhaps he's drunk?
The world's longest and deepest rail tunnel has officially opened in Switzerland, after almost two decades of construction work.
Now the completed tunnel, delivered on time and within budget, will create a mainline rail connection between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Genoa in Italy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36423250
Maybe there are even defence or IT projects in the world which are not massive white elephants?
Closest result was in 1995 when Labour came within 79 votes of defeating sitting councillor Gary Crookes who sadly died in 2019.
2023 result was
Con 49.1%
Labour 36%
Green 7.1%
Anecdotally he's had people saying they'll vote for him but not Conservative in the GE.
To me he seems like a student politician who has never grown up.
Although only one of them has a vote anymore.
@Taz
Susan Hall Campaigns with Tommy Robinson Supporting Anti-ULEZ Activist Who ‘Applauds’ Vandals and Believes Islamists are in Charge of Britain
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/30/susan-hall-sadiq-khan-nick-arlett-ulez-tommy-robinson-islam-blade-runners/
Not going to happen, is it?
The saddest thing is The Anderson fan club will be overcome with excitement . Some of those bundled into the vans in ordinary circumstances could have had their asylum claims accepted !
The Tories are just a cesspit of hate and cruelty .
He'll probably have the largest majority of all the mayors this time around.
She said to me, ‘Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson.’
I was speechless and thought I must have misheard but another friend heard it and was equally astonished by it. So my good friend repeated the claim. I’ve put it in bold partly because it’s so astonishing and partly because it’ll catch the eye
After a long period of thinking she knew nothing about Starmer and nothing about Labour’s policies my friend has now come to the conclusion that, 'like Boris,' he’s a man of the people: ‘he’s listening to what really matters to people.’
It’ll be dismissed out of hand by the likes of CR who seems to think any anecdotes are the mark of the troll, which doesn’t matter. Perhaps more pertinently I don’t imagine it’s a view widely held by many hitherto tory voters.
But suppose it is? Suppose Starmer is cutting through? I’ve heard elsewhere that he’s gaining traction amongst older voters.
Anyway, I am still astonished by the comment and offer it humbly and verbatim.
@Foxy is probably right. GOTV stuff from Streeting.
Strong Conservative candidate (and Boris is a strong candidate, the first time you meet him.)
Weak Labour candidate (by 2008, bits were beginning to drop off Ken, albeit not as much as in 2012.)
Reasonably favourable, or at least tolerable national position.
Hall is not a serious candidate, though she has identified and played to the right issues for her base.
Khan is offensively bland, but most people don't mind that.
The national situation for the government is horrible.
But the voters still have to be got out to vote.
Whilst I agree with him he will say anything he thinks is popular
https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754?postid=7613365#liveblog-body
I imagine the new (old) first past the post method is a bit spooky for activists on the eve of the election.
I mean, it's something to do with LGBT+ and Palestine, clearly, but I obviously don't know enough of the detail anymore to figure out the specific demand.
A tunnel plus their proper port facilities and some targeted industrial infrastructure and Tangier and region could be a nearshoring hotspot. That plus electricity exports from solar farms further South.
I expect the impact on migration would be pretty limited because the straits are already very narrow but most migrants go elsewhere where the smugglers can act with impunity. And if anything some industrial development in the North might boost resources for policing and security.
Did Susan Hall even know she was "campaigning" with this fella or what his views are?
Don't forget that guy from PB (Martin Day?) who was nominally "campaigning" for the Conservatives when he was arrested for assaulting Labour activists in Election 2010.
Was David Cameron personally responsible for that?
And, noooooo, that’s doesn’t mean my bro’ is being homophobic. He’s gay.
You can fight it out with him, if you want.
Other than that, I can't really see much similarity....
If a man thinks that he should be a woman, and wants to dress up as a woman and "live" as a woman, then I'll call him his girly name and use his girly pronouns
But if you actually expect me to believe, or even pretend to believe beyond the girly names, that this man is a woman, then you need checking in for psychiatric treatment
The Tories will do better than expected.
And draw all the wrong conclusions.