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Heat not a furnace for your foe so hot that it do singe yourself – politicalbetting.com
Heat not a furnace for your foe so hot that it do singe yourself – politicalbetting.com
NEW @IpsosUK Political Pulse. No significant shift in Angela Rayner's personal favourability ratings amidst ongoing tax row.More on favourability towards parties and leaders here https://t.co/KvnTxx27De pic.twitter.com/oHeIkjOe2t
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How many seats (vs post 2019 GE total) will the Conservatives lose at the next General Election?
No losses - 100/1
1-50 - 33/1
51-100 - 16/1
101-150 - 13/2
151-200 - 5/2
201 or more - 1/2
SNP survives no confidence vote, so avoid crashing into an election campaign, for now... over to the party to choose it's next leader
Scottish Greens. Not bothered about the environment.
That's Labour near the bottom of their current range, and Tories at the top, plus four from Reform.
Is that so unlikely?
I think people have overreacted to make 201+ losses 1/2. It should be the favourite, but I think there's value in the other bands.
Since most parties are pretty green these days, including many Conservatives, Green parties have incentive to talk about other bugbears.
"Why Britain’s towns and cities are going bust"
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2024/05/world/birmingham-uk-bankruptcy-intl-cnnphotos/
I think that qualifies as 'bold'
Detroit went bust about 10 years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy
Not sure Birmingham has run up $20bn (yet)...
Who's seen the Operation Vector video? It's like the Sweeney. You're nicked!
https://us.cnn.com/2024/05/01/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-vacate/index.html
I suspect it has no chance of success but probably slightly beneficial to the Dems to have Mental Margie going loco all over the airwaves.
⚡️Economy minister: Ukraine reaches pre-war level of exports in April.
Ukraine exported more than 13 million tons of products totaling $3.3 billion in April, which is higher than volumes for February 2022 before the start of the full-scale invasion, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on May 1.
Source: Kyiv Independent
🚨 || General Election Nowcast (30/04):
LAB: 448 (+248) - 43.9%
CON: 121 (-251) - 24.0%
LDM: 38 (+30) - 9.6%
SNP: 19 (-29) - 3.0%
PLC: 4 (+2) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (-) - 6.1%
RFM: 0 (-) - 12.2%
Oth: 1 (-) - 0.5%
LAB Maj of 246.
Changes w/ GE2019 notionals.
Channel 5, 9pm tonight. Cecil Parkinson.
In a tape leaked to ITV News, Lee Anderson claims Cabinet ministers messaged support after his suspension over inflammatory remarks made about Sadiq Khan
He's also heard saying Mr Khan 'hates this country... our heritage, our culture' |
@AnushkaAsthana
The first draft of the Solarpunk article has been posted. It is the first draft but shows the structure. Would you care to have a look please?
@dixiedean , @LostPassword, you said you would like a look at it first. There is one paragraph in there I assume you won't like, but it's a starter and can be modified
It’s not just Tories targeting Rayner, Galloway vowed to take her scalp in the election. Rayner is Labours Miss Battlebus, and opponents want to make her appear to be an untrusted hypocrite and stuck in her constituency during the GE.
In politics and sports, if opponents have an advantage you target it to nullify it. This does work. I think the Tories made 1992 a lot about Kinnock becoming the UK PM, by the end of the campaign, the final big push in a tight contest, the Labour spin doctors hid Kinnock in a potting shed.
The table in the header probably doesn’t measure the whole effectiveness in marking an opponent out the game so they can’t do their business for the team, only final match score when the whistle goes.
Not a shock if for the General Election the Tories ask the police to investigate if and why Starmer let the Saville victims down - that would fill up a lot of front pages and Starmer’s interview time. And the danger of getting into the head of the Labour campaign and into Starmer’s head, so asked about it in umpteenth interview or vox pop of the week, his exasperated angry response will go viral. How many times have we seen stars in football marked out the game get sent off for a frustrated foul their opponents made a meal out of?
ON checking, 'Alba's Ash Regan voted with the Tories, Labour and LibDems to bring down the Government.'. Very brave of the Tories once they knew they wouldn't win and get an election they didn't want.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24292429.motion-no-confidence-scottish-government-fails/
Swinney will be the last nail in the coffin if they are stupid enough to go with him.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68840881
Mr RP might well know better.
Napoleon deeply criticised the French Revolution because it took away the “sense of the numinous”. Those are the words Zamoyski uses
This actually reinforces something I’ve been thinking for a while. I know this will provoke more skeptical and materialist PB-ers, but for a long time I’ve thought I am actually a reincarnation of Napoleon Bonaparte. And I am increasingly sure it is true, given the plentiful evidence, which I surely don’t need to adduce here
And even (nod to kinabalu) if Trump were to win, America would remain a democracy. Criticism of the regime would be possible. Women wouldn't be beaten to death for immodesty. It would still be nowhere near Iran on the scale of awful.
Like Napoleon I am extremely gifted and rizz we know all that blah blah I don’t need to rehash it. But I am also a new kind of human being, a sort of
“universal man”. I am aware this sounds really self regarding and I don’t want to do that - but I don’t know how else to put it
For their part, the Greens have significant buying power they are unlikely to retain if they force an election.
That's the basis of a deal. I suspect that deal will look significantly similar to the BHA because the sums essentially dictate it.
You thought it was a joke, and so you LAUGHED, YOU LAUGHED! When I had said that losing you would make me flip my lid, RIGHT?
You know you laughed. I HEARD you laugh, you laughed.
And laughed and laughed!
If he wanted out he should have given his members a vote like the Greens were going to. If they parted ways amicably you get the feeling he might -might- have been able to cling on, issue by issue.
As it is this whole episode feels to me as having emboldened the Greens even further.
Even the Dems have said they won't participate in this ousting attempt, but you're right, it can hardly hurt them to have MTG raving about how her colleagues are uniparty traitors.
The misery is feckin delicious 😋
If I could come back as Napoleon (spoiler: I have) I’d fix this first, and pronto
@SadiqKhan
🚨 Susan Hall is the most dangerous candidate I've ever faced.
Before you give her an X, read her X.
A thread:
She supports hard-right politicians, and holds extreme, deeply concerning views.
She's a climate change denier and doesn't consider herself a feminist."
https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1785656529749790935
https://youtu.be/yPj47ip5cRo?si=3At8QmjpKtoHv01V
Back in the era of juke boxes it could empty a cafe or pub in minutes.
But when you add that in, then it all looks a lot more ambiguous doesn’t it?
There will always be nay sayers that I can never convince. I pay them no heed
It changes the conversation, anyway. I feel like they are stuck with the arithmetic and political situation they find themselves in now until 2026. So they either need to work with it and probably go down with the ship (Swinney), rage against it and get nothing done while leaching votes (Forbes, no election), or roll the dice and try and get a new set of circumstances (Forbes, election).
And I should know. The inherited trauma stings even now. Epigenetics
Forasmuch as the Feasts of the Nativity of Christ, Easter and Whitsuntide, and other Festivals commonly called Holy-Dayes, have been heretofore superstitiously used and observed Be it Ordained, by the Lords and Commons in Parliament assembled, That the said Feast of the Nativity of Christ, Easter and Whitsuntide, and all other Festival dayes, commonly called Holy-dayes, be no longer observed as Festivals or Holy-dayes within this Kingdome of England and Dominion of Wales, any Law, Statute, Custome, Constitution, or Cannon to the contrary in any wise notwithstanding: And to the end that there may be a convenient time allotted to Scholars, Apprentices, and other Servants for their Recreation: Be it Ordained by the authority aforesaid, That all Scholars, Apprentices, and other Servants shall, with the leave and approbation of their Masters respectively first had and obtained, have such convenient reasonable Recreation and Relaxation from their constant and ordinary Labours on every second Tuesday in the moneth throughout the year, as formerly they have used to have on such aforesaid Festivals, commonly called Holy-dayes. And that Masters of all Scholars, Apprentices, and Servants, shall grant unto them respectively such time for their Recreations on the aforesaid second Tuesdaies in every moneth, as they may conveniently spare from their extraordinary and necessary Services and Occasions. And it is further Ordained by the said Lords and Commons, That if any difference shall arise between any Master and Servant concerning the Liberty hereby granted, the next Justice of the Peace shall have power to hear and determine the same.
Even if its all true, how 'dangerous' can a London Mayor be?
The West faces an unprecedented number of new arrivals
The rich world is in the midst of an unprecedented migration boom. Last year 3.3m more people moved to America than left, almost four times typical levels in the 2010s. Canada took in 1.9m immigrants. Britain welcomed 1.2m people and Australia 740,000. In each country the number was greater than ever before. For Australia and Canada net migration is more than double pre-covid levels. In Britain the intake is 3.5 times that of 2019."
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/30/immigration-is-surging-with-big-economic-consequences
Boris Johnson.
Indeed, that's one reason it was a good role for him - of course you can still mess up, but its more limited.