BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right than the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
"Now that Alba have gained the balance of power, they'd probably be unwise to throw that enviable position away the very next week by forcing an immediate election"
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right thank the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
Yes exactly. She’s the best candidate in terms of the voters but the Nats won’t want the division she brings
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I suspect a reason Humza succeeded Nicola was he was "out of the room" when the [ahem] problems were accruing at SNP HQ. Notwithstanding that the two most senior ministers seem to be Angus Robertson and Shona Robison if they want more "continuity". Forbes is unacceptable to many in the SNP and her elevation would amount to a hostile takeover and a total reversal of the Sturgeon progressive political strategy.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Excellent focus from Katanji Brown Jackson, the most recent SCOTUS Justice Appointment:
Q: Why is is not enough for the purposes of this case, given what the petitioner has argued, to just answer the question of whether all official acts get immunity?
A: That is enough, and if the Court answers the question as the Government has submitted that resolves the case.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
On the plus side she essentially gets to inhabit the role left by the Greens - i.e we now have a new tail wagging the dog.
The SNP might be better off just going for the election to be honest. If they get propped up by a minority interest again, their coalition frays further.
🗣️ @AlexSalmond: “Humza Yousaf has managed to make Ash Regan, the Alba MSP, the most powerful MSP in the Scottish Parliament... I'm sure that Ash Regan will use that power very wisely indeed”
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Clearly someone here is walking into a trap signposted THIS IS A TRAP. Like the SNP did in the Westminster confidence vote in 1979.
A coupla thoughts. 1. This is a VONC in Humza - not the Govt. Therefore if he loses doesn't mean an election. 2. With Greens supporting the VONC the math indicates he will need Alba MSP Ash Regan's support. That means, effectively, that his fate rests in Alex Salmond's hands. A real LOL.
There is a lively debate about this on Wings at the moment. Campbell is suggesting that Ross has fluffed this by having a VONC in Yousaf rather than the government. I am not sure that is right. I think that a VONC in Yousaf would require him to resign. I am not sure how we would get another FM within 28 days.
Losing a personal VONC does not REQUIRE him to do anything.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Clearly someone here is walking into a trap signposted THIS IS A TRAP. Like the SNP did in the Westminster confidence vote in 1979.
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right thank the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
Yes exactly. She’s the best candidate in terms of the voters but the Nats won’t want the division she brings
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
She'd make a much better Tory than most of the current Tory party but for independence. She wants an economy that works and shows signs of understanding how that might be delivered. This may be overly optimistic but Scotland hasn't had a government interested in the economy since Alec Salmond was First Minister and the damage is palpable.
I think that she has been fairly pragmatic on the religious issues. She has said that she would have voted against gay marriage but has no plans to change it. I don't think that is the deal breaker. The bigger problem is the schism in the SNP between the Sturgeon central belt left wing progressives and the rural "tartan Tory/Liberal" wing. She is obviously in the latter but they are less than half the party as the election of Yousaf showed.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
One hopes so.
I took a photo for you! (I’ll stop with the photos after this)
Some modern stained glass in Quimper cathedral. lt ain’t Chagall but I rather like it
Thanks.
What's the camera?
That's not a camera, that's the baby Jesus.
I was going to drop in a note on photographing stained glass, having once upon a time spent more than a month visiting nearly all English CofE cathedrals mainly to photograph the glass (and not having a long enough lens for close-ups of the Roof Bosses of Norwich).
My top tips are
1 - Underexpose by 0.5-1 stops, because a normal auto-colour-balance will pull detail out of dark areas, which is completely lost in overexposed highlights. 2 - If possible get dull light behind the window . 3 - Take it straight on so Photoshop can more easily undo the perspective distortion. 4 - A cheap monopod or travel tripod is worth its weight. I have one I take on the bike.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Clearly someone here is walking into a trap signposted THIS IS A TRAP. Like the SNP did in the Westminster confidence vote in 1979.
Question is- who?
I mentioned that earlier. The only obvious winner in an election now is Labour and, possibly, the Lib Dems if they ended up back in Coalition again. Pretty much everyone else loses.
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
A coupla thoughts. 1. This is a VONC in Humza - not the Govt. Therefore if he loses doesn't mean an election. 2. With Greens supporting the VONC the math indicates he will need Alba MSP Ash Regan's support. That means, effectively, that his fate rests in Alex Salmond's hands. A real LOL.
There is a lively debate about this on Wings at the moment. Campbell is suggesting that Ross has fluffed this by having a VONC in Yousaf rather than the government. I am not sure that is right. I think that a VONC in Yousaf would require him to resign. I am not sure how we would get another FM within 28 days.
Losing a personal VONC does not REQUIRE him to do anything.
He will have to be shamed into resigning
I think that is arguable. s46 (2) refers to "(c) the office of First Minister becoming vacant (otherwise than in consequence of his so tendering his resignation),"
If a vote of no confidence is passed by the Scottish Parliament in the FM is that not a means by which the office of FM becomes vacant? I think it is arguable that it is. I think he would have to resign. But hey, we are in unchartered waters here.
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
Are you sure about that? How could they possibly when they have had 2 ministers in the government?
Politics at its best. Proper drama - the SNP have delivered in spades for months
This also gives the lie to the idea that “Wokeness” doesn’t have much impact on our politics. It absolutely does. The greens have dumped the nits because the snp are not on board with the trans agenda
So this is now toppling entire governments
I recall fond days when I and others (@Cyclefree) were dismissed as cranks for pointing out the problems of GRR or "Affirmative Care".
No need to apologise, we knew we were right then...
It must be sobering how poor you were at persuading people to your view.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Clearly someone here is walking into a trap signposted THIS IS A TRAP. Like the SNP did in the Westminster confidence vote in 1979.
Question is- who?
I mentioned that earlier. The only obvious winner in an election now is Labour and, possibly, the Lib Dems if they ended up back in Coalition again. Pretty much everyone else loses.
Thanks. That's Greens and Cons so excited by the game of whack-a-nat that they're not thinking about the other side of the vote.
If a vote of no confidence is passed by the Scottish Parliament in the FM is that not a means by which the office of FM becomes vacant? I think it is arguable that it is. I think he would have to resign. But hey, we are in unchartered waters here.
That $META earnings call was an absolute disaster. Zuck tried to convince his investors that AI is the future, when there's no real clear path to how it makes profit.
Then he tried to tie it into the metaverse.
At that point I bet a lot of people got PTSD, because the selling accelerated further... 11:38 PM · Apr 24, 2024 · 368.8K Views
Meta stock - even after today - is up 24% this year.
Oh sure but in the markets sentiment is all. Today its had a giant gap down that broke its uptrend. So you have lots of unhappy trapped longs that will feed the selling. Perhaps its a chance for Leon to buy some more.
Absolutely, when Tesla dropped 19% on 13 January 2012, that was the sign of the beginning of the end for the stock. If you'd shortsold it then, you would be absolutely... well bankrupt.
And of course, there was 28 September 2018, another day when Tesla stock fell more than 10%. That was when we knew it was all over for Tesla.
Comparing TSLA in 2012 to META in 2024 is a bit silly not least the fact the market was pretty cheap in 2012 but is expensive now. Also in 2012 we had QE and zero interest rates with no inflation. But you are a wealthy man. The beauty of the market is you can buy a tonne of META now and prove me wrong.
I bought Meta late last year for just over $300. I'm still feeling pretty smug, thank you.
As an aside, in the last five months, Meta's market stock market capitalization has risen by $250bn.
That means Meta has increased more than four times the value of the entire Russian stock market in just five months.
Yes a sign of how disconnected from reality the us stock market has become.
Not really. I'd rather own facebook than Russia. Facebook can't be arbitrarily seized on the whim of a mad despot intent on turning everything of value into rocks to throw at Ukraine, for one. If I owned anything at all in Russia I would be trying my damnedest to offload it. That's why nothing in Russia is worth very much. Zuckerberg may or may not make some duff bets but I've got total faith in him not launching a catastrophic war with his neighbour.
Congress has just voted to ban TikTok so in principle they could ban Facebook.
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
Are you sure about that? How could they possibly when they have had 2 ministers in the government?
If a vote of no confidence is passed by the Scottish Parliament in the FM is that not a means by which the office of FM becomes vacant? I think it is arguable that it is. I think he would have to resign. But hey, we are in unchartered waters here.
I don't think it automatically does.
Who knows? Its never been done and the set up here is somewhat different from Westminster. But when a VONC is passed in a Minister in Westminster the Convention is that they immediately resign. I can't see why that would not be the case in Scotland.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
Reagan’s seat would be on a pretty shoogly peg if an early election was held. Of course she may have persuaded herself that her personal qualities would overcome any of those quibbles. History suggests that might be the case.
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right thank the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
Yes exactly. She’s the best candidate in terms of the voters but the Nats won’t want the division she brings
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
She'd make a much better Tory than most of the current Tory party but for independence. She wants an economy that works and shows signs of understanding how that might be delivered. This may be overly optimistic but Scotland hasn't had a government interested in the economy since Alec Salmond was First Minister and the damage is palpable.
I think that she has been fairly pragmatic on the religious issues. She has said that she would have voted against gay marriage but has no plans to change it. I don't think that is the deal breaker. The bigger problem is the schism in the SNP between the Sturgeon central belt left wing progressives and the rural "tartan Tory/Liberal" wing. She is obviously in the latter but they are less than half the party as the election of Yousaf showed.
The point is if she was First Minister then she wouldn't have held a vote on gay marriage.
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right thank the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
Yes exactly. She’s the best candidate in terms of the voters but the Nats won’t want the division she brings
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
She'd make a much better Tory than most of the current Tory party but for independence. She wants an economy that works and shows signs of understanding how that might be delivered. This may be overly optimistic but Scotland hasn't had a government interested in the economy since Alec Salmond was First Minister and the damage is palpable.
I think that she has been fairly pragmatic on the religious issues. She has said that she would have voted against gay marriage but has no plans to change it. I don't think that is the deal breaker. The bigger problem is the schism in the SNP between the Sturgeon central belt left wing progressives and the rural "tartan Tory/Liberal" wing. She is obviously in the latter but they are less than half the party as the election of Yousaf showed.
From this distance, the union of progressive-nationalist and conservative-nationalist sounds like an absolute bugger when it comes to working out what Holyrood should actually do with the power it currently has. Maybe the surprise is that the cracks in the SNP aren't bigger. Ghastly as the Sturgeonites might be, without them the SNP is a tiny party of rural weirdos muttering about tradition and how it was their oil all along.
Shades of the Johnson recast of the Conservative party uniting small and big staters, just so long as the state was British.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
No, the mistake in @Andy_JS's post is that he said the SNP are voting against Yousaf when he meant the Greens. There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Clearly someone here is walking into a trap signposted THIS IS A TRAP. Like the SNP did in the Westminster confidence vote in 1979.
Question is- who?
I mentioned that earlier. The only obvious winner in an election now is Labour and, possibly, the Lib Dems if they ended up back in Coalition again. Pretty much everyone else loses.
Thanks. That's Greens and Cons so excited by the game of whack-a-nat that they're not thinking about the other side of the vote.
Makes sense.
Campbell has an excellent and entertaining turn of phrase. His comment was "We have no idea why Ross has done it this way, but “He’s a custard-witted clown who can’t even run along a painted line properly” cannot be discounted as an explanation.
(For our English brethren who don't follow these things closely, the Tory leader Ross is also a referee).
That $META earnings call was an absolute disaster. Zuck tried to convince his investors that AI is the future, when there's no real clear path to how it makes profit.
Then he tried to tie it into the metaverse.
At that point I bet a lot of people got PTSD, because the selling accelerated further... 11:38 PM · Apr 24, 2024 · 368.8K Views
Meta stock - even after today - is up 24% this year.
Oh sure but in the markets sentiment is all. Today its had a giant gap down that broke its uptrend. So you have lots of unhappy trapped longs that will feed the selling. Perhaps its a chance for Leon to buy some more.
Absolutely, when Tesla dropped 19% on 13 January 2012, that was the sign of the beginning of the end for the stock. If you'd shortsold it then, you would be absolutely... well bankrupt.
And of course, there was 28 September 2018, another day when Tesla stock fell more than 10%. That was when we knew it was all over for Tesla.
Comparing TSLA in 2012 to META in 2024 is a bit silly not least the fact the market was pretty cheap in 2012 but is expensive now. Also in 2012 we had QE and zero interest rates with no inflation. But you are a wealthy man. The beauty of the market is you can buy a tonne of META now and prove me wrong.
I bought Meta late last year for just over $300. I'm still feeling pretty smug, thank you.
As an aside, in the last five months, Meta's market stock market capitalization has risen by $250bn.
That means Meta has increased more than four times the value of the entire Russian stock market in just five months.
Yes a sign of how disconnected from reality the us stock market has become.
Not really. I'd rather own facebook than Russia. Facebook can't be arbitrarily seized on the whim of a mad despot intent on turning everything of value into rocks to throw at Ukraine, for one. If I owned anything at all in Russia I would be trying my damnedest to offload it. That's why nothing in Russia is worth very much. Zuckerberg may or may not make some duff bets but I've got total faith in him not launching a catastrophic war with his neighbour.
Congress has just voted to ban TikTok so in principle they could ban Facebook.
That's not correct.
Congress has voted that the Chinese company ByteDance must divest TikTok. (Or rather, must divest the US facing TikTok.)
It will be interesting to see who acquires it: it's too big for Snapchat. Facebook/Meta would face antitrust issues.
Netflix, perhaps? Although they have a lot of debt. Microsoft, Amazon and Google are all possibles.
The Christian Democrats still riding high. Social Democrats and liberals (FDP) still in deep trouble, while Greens weathering the anti-Government swing a bit better. AfD somewhat off the boil, with the anti-immigration and pro-Russian far left BSW picking up and probably safely above the 5% hurdle (unlike the Corbynist Die Linke which they split from). The problem of forming a potential non-SPD government remains - if the AfD are off-limits, the CDU will need both Greens and FDP to get a majority, which looks unlikely.
You skip the most incredible - and momentous - polling data from Germany. The hard right AfD is now the most popular party amongst Germans aged 14-29
This is really important because this is why Le pen is close to the French presidency. The young vote for her, it’s not just the old
I am pretty sure Britain will eventually follow this pattern. Why should we be immune? We might be. We probably aren’t
Of course in Britain it's unfashionable for young people to be right-wing, and has been for a long time, probably since the early 1960s. But interesting how that isn't the case in other European countries.
That $META earnings call was an absolute disaster. Zuck tried to convince his investors that AI is the future, when there's no real clear path to how it makes profit.
Then he tried to tie it into the metaverse.
At that point I bet a lot of people got PTSD, because the selling accelerated further... 11:38 PM · Apr 24, 2024 · 368.8K Views
Meta stock - even after today - is up 24% this year.
Oh sure but in the markets sentiment is all. Today its had a giant gap down that broke its uptrend. So you have lots of unhappy trapped longs that will feed the selling. Perhaps its a chance for Leon to buy some more.
Absolutely, when Tesla dropped 19% on 13 January 2012, that was the sign of the beginning of the end for the stock. If you'd shortsold it then, you would be absolutely... well bankrupt.
And of course, there was 28 September 2018, another day when Tesla stock fell more than 10%. That was when we knew it was all over for Tesla.
Comparing TSLA in 2012 to META in 2024 is a bit silly not least the fact the market was pretty cheap in 2012 but is expensive now. Also in 2012 we had QE and zero interest rates with no inflation. But you are a wealthy man. The beauty of the market is you can buy a tonne of META now and prove me wrong.
I bought Meta late last year for just over $300. I'm still feeling pretty smug, thank you.
As an aside, in the last five months, Meta's market stock market capitalization has risen by $250bn.
That means Meta has increased more than four times the value of the entire Russian stock market in just five months.
Yes a sign of how disconnected from reality the us stock market has become.
Not really. I'd rather own facebook than Russia. Facebook can't be arbitrarily seized on the whim of a mad despot intent on turning everything of value into rocks to throw at Ukraine, for one. If I owned anything at all in Russia I would be trying my damnedest to offload it. That's why nothing in Russia is worth very much. Zuckerberg may or may not make some duff bets but I've got total faith in him not launching a catastrophic war with his neighbour.
Congress has just voted to ban TikTok so in principle they could ban Facebook.
That's not correct.
Congress has voted that the Chinese company ByteDance must divest TikTok. (Or rather, must divest the US facing TikTok.)
It will be interesting to see who acquires it: it's too big for Snapchat. Facebook/Meta would face antitrust issues.
Netflix, perhaps? Although they have a lot of debt. Microsoft, Amazon and Google are all possibles.
Well, it is sort of correct. If not sold off, TikTok will be banned. Oddly this was tacked onto the Israel and Ukraine aid bill because that is the way Congress works.
Politics at its best. Proper drama - the SNP have delivered in spades for months
This also gives the lie to the idea that “Wokeness” doesn’t have much impact on our politics. It absolutely does. The greens have dumped the nits because the snp are not on board with the trans agenda
So this is now toppling entire governments
It was ditching the 75% city in CO2 target for 2030 that triggered this. Not the trans stuff.
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
Are you sure about that? How could they possibly when they have had 2 ministers in the government?
Probably because (a) the Greens were not in formal coalition, and/or (b) coalitions and looser associations were expected by the chaps who set up Holyrood, as all governments would be minority ones else, given the fiddled d'Hondtoid system.
So the size of the party and its exact role were more flexible than the baseline assumption of Con, Lab and LD for Westminster (why aren't the DUP, for instance, given Short Money? They certainly have a higher representation in NI than Labour do in England ...).
How were the LD's dealt with in the early years of Holyrood?
If Humza Yousaf loses vote, he doesn’t have to resign but senior sources close to FM tell me he would do honourable thing.
Technically it’s 28 days for Holyrood to vote in a new FM, or an election. In reality an interim FM could be voted in while SNP conducts leadership contest.
BREAKING | Greens will vote to oust First Minister meaning Humza Yousaf's fate hangs on single MSP.
Look at the headline to this thread.
***Legendary modesty klaxon***
Shouting-it-from-the-rooftops levels of modesty.
I like to remind people of my never been wrong on Scottish politics stretch that has been going on for nearly two decades
You make an interesting point that this could - in the end - be good for the nats if it means they dump an unpopular leader like Yousless - and find someone better
But is there someone better? Forbes is clearly papabile but she’s too unwoke. She will wind up too many people in a party already split on woke issues (as we see)
Is there anyone else? This putative leader ALSO has to bridge the divide between Indy fundamentalists and the hmmm gradualists
I quite like Angus Robertson and suspect he will do better.
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right thank the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
Yes exactly. She’s the best candidate in terms of the voters but the Nats won’t want the division she brings
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
She'd make a much better Tory than most of the current Tory party but for independence. She wants an economy that works and shows signs of understanding how that might be delivered. This may be overly optimistic but Scotland hasn't had a government interested in the economy since Alec Salmond was First Minister and the damage is palpable.
I think that she has been fairly pragmatic on the religious issues. She has said that she would have voted against gay marriage but has no plans to change it. I don't think that is the deal breaker. The bigger problem is the schism in the SNP between the Sturgeon central belt left wing progressives and the rural "tartan Tory/Liberal" wing. She is obviously in the latter but they are less than half the party as the election of Yousaf showed.
The point is if she was First Minister then she wouldn't have held a vote on gay marriage.
Not to mention sort-of-support for the abortion clinic prayer meeting weirdos. Amazing what blind eyes can be turned if someone is on the quasi right.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
The idea that Humza Yousaf's political fate may now lie in the hands of Ash Regan, the woman who left the SNP in disgust at its plans for gender self-ID, reminds me...
Reflecting on yesterday's interesting conversations on numinousness, I think when visiting somewhere historic, we look through personal sets of spectacles.
My habit is to take an interest in the human community that was there, looking at that story through the lens of the details that are still there, and my knowledge of the history. Others ways of looking are through an architectural view, or an aesthetic or artistic view.
I think the difference I feel between say a French and an English village church is that in the case of the English church it is the backstory of a community that still exists, whilst in French examples I have seen there is a feel of a memorial or museum to a community that ceased to exist in that place some time ago. Almost a skeleton vs a living body, to reach for an over-crude contrast.
I'd draw a comparison with my experiences some years ago (1990s) of walking the routes of London's now-subterranean rivers reading the signs in the landscape which remember where the used to flow. An example might be a garden boundary that used to follow the bank, but is still left now that the river has gone.
If you want simple "noom", I'd go for Escomb near Bishop Auckland over St Peter's on the Wall. A saxon church built around 675AD with stone mined from a roman fort, still in its round churchyard which is a a mark of 'ancient', simply dressed inside, still in the middle of its village inside a boundary road called Saxon Green. What a place to go to Midnight Communion on Christmas Eve.
For noom in London two I'd think about would be St Barts the Great, with (still, I hope) an amazing, small professional choir. And All Hallows on the Wall in the City, which has a ceiling like a regency drawing room inside.
But for me I'm equally interested in the human community, so that pulls in modern times. I used to be a member of the Othona Community, which is a network contemporaneous with the modern Iona Community (ie 1950s iirc) with their base at a centre in Bradwell near St Peter's on the Wall, where members visit to recharge their batteries. It's the only place known to me where I can gather kilos of damsons in the hedgerows.
In London I like the journey made by the now Lord Mawson, from being a discouraged young URC Minister in the early 1980s with an empty, echoing church in Bromley-by-Bow in the East End, to what is now a major community hub providing a plethora of community services used by 2000 people per week. There are not dissimilar projects of development of communities everywhere, which I see as part of the same story. I really enjoy exploring that type of story - whether in the 1600s or the 2000s.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
The benefits of not reading abuse. There was a study of abuse of jockeys, and part of the problem was that after a bad ride, they'd look at Twitter to read the abuse. In a pre-tech age, Tory press chief Bernard Ingham lamented that John Major insisted on reading the newspapers that attacked him rather than be satisfied with a prepared summary like Mrs Thatcher.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
The Qu is like a K, so it’s more like Camp Air.
Is the Qu a hard pronunciation? I put it a little in the throat.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project .
I just have the dubious advantage of a lifetime spent around these dodgy Bretons, Normans and their island cousins. The amount of incommers who will see a surname like “Le Quesne” and pronounce it as “Le Kwesnee” instead of “Le Kane” or place names beginning with Qu as Kw is normal.
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
That's all very well. But how many schools allow kids to be on smartphones? It's yet another solution the government is trumpeting which has been in place for years. Like the recent announcement that the unemployed who refuse a job will lose their benefits.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
The Qu is like a K, so it’s more like Camp Air.
Is the Qu a hard pronunciation? I put it a little in the throat.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project .
I just have the dubious advantage of a lifetime spent around these dodgy Bretons, Normans and their island cousins. The amount of incommers who will see a surname like “Le Quesne” and pronounce it as “Le Kwesnee” instead of “Le Kane” or place names beginning with Qu as Kw is normal.
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
The Qu is like a K, so it’s more like Camp Air.
Is the Qu a hard pronunciation? I put it a little in the throat.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project .
I just have the dubious advantage of a lifetime spent around these dodgy Bretons, Normans and their island cousins. The amount of incommers who will see a surname like “Le Quesne” and pronounce it as “Le Kwesnee” instead of “Le Kane” or place names beginning with Qu as Kw is normal.
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
Reagan’s seat would be on a pretty shoogly peg if an early election was held. Of course she may have persuaded herself that her personal qualities would overcome any of those quibbles. History suggests that might be the case.
I'd have thought the bigger reason there won't be an early election is that it wouldn't suit the Conservatives (and clearly wouldn't suit the SNP). They'd be likely to go backwards and pretty much certain to move from second to third party. So they'd like to bring down Yousaf but not the whole show.
Reflecting on yesterday's interesting conversations on numinousness, I think when visiting somewhere historic, we look through personal sets of spectacles.
My habit is to take an interest in the human community that was there, looking at that story through the lens of the details that are still there, and my knowledge of the history. Others ways of looking are through an architectural view, or an aesthetic or artistic view.
I think the difference I feel between say a French and an English village church is that in the case of the English church it is the backstory of a community that still exists, whilst in French examples I have seen there is a feel of a memorial or museum to a community that ceased to exist in that place some time ago. Almost a skeleton vs a living body, to reach for an over-crude contrast.
I'd draw a comparison with my experiences some years ago (1990s) of walking the routes of London's now-subterranean rivers reading the signs in the landscape which remember where the used to flow. An example might be a garden boundary that used to follow the bank, but is still left now that the river has gone.
If you want simple "noom", I'd go for Escomb near Bishop Auckland over St Peter's on the Wall. A saxon church built around 675AD with stone mined from a roman fort, still in its round churchyard which is a a mark of 'ancient', simply dressed inside, still in the middle of its village inside a boundary road called Saxon Green. What a place to go to Midnight Communion on Christmas Eve.
For noom in London two I'd think about would be St Barts the Great, with (still, I hope) an amazing, small professional choir. And All Hallows on the Wall in the City, which has a ceiling like a regency drawing room inside.
But for me I'm equally interested in the human community, so that pulls in modern times. I used to be a member of the Othona Community, which is a network contemporaneous with the modern Iona Community (ie 1950s iirc) with their base at a centre in Bradwell near St Peter's on the Wall, where members visit to recharge their batteries. It's the only place known to me where I can gather kilos of damsons in the hedgerows.
In London I like the journey made by the now Lord Mawson, from being a discouraged young URC Minister in the early 1980s with an empty, echoing church in Bromley-by-Bow in the East End, to what is now a major community hub providing a plethora of community services used by 2000 people per week. There are not dissimilar projects of development of communities everywhere, which I see as part of the same story. I really enjoy exploring that type of story - whether in the 1600s or the 2000s.
Enough of that - have a good evening, all.
Good choices!
In terms of London churches with noom I’d also go for St John’s Chapel inside the Tower of London. Meganoom. Also St Sepulchre without Newgate - the Old Bailey church - all those condemned men. Anything by Hawksmoor but especially Spitalfields. And the Temple church is pretty noomy
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
The Qu is like a K, so it’s more like Camp Air.
Is the Qu a hard pronunciation? I put it a little in the throat.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project .
I just have the dubious advantage of a lifetime spent around these dodgy Bretons, Normans and their island cousins. The amount of incommers who will see a surname like “Le Quesne” and pronounce it as “Le Kwesnee” instead of “Le Kane” or place names beginning with Qu as Kw is normal.
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
I knew about Nick Clegg's languages skills but not Ed Davey. Which are they?
Wiki: Davey speaks English, French, German and Spanish.
He did French and German to A-level, which is a strong enough foundation to build on if you keep speaking them, plus PPE. I'm not sure where the Spanish came from, as I don't recall him doing it at school. Most of us did French and German to age 16.
But I'm guessing Lib Dems having the EU at the heart of their vision would help in maintaining international contact.
Talking of newspapers, the Telegraph obituaries front page currently has:-
David Marquand, cerebral and moderate Labour MP influential in the rise of the SDP and Blairism – obituary Despite his abilities, he was never made a minister, due perhaps to his moderation and readiness to say the (in Labour circles) unsayable
Lord Field of Birkenhead, Labour MP who dedicated his career to tackling child poverty – obituary When The Spectator named him Constituency Member of the Year in 1985, he missed the ceremony as he was ‘engaged on constituency work’
Sir Peter Hordern, backbencher under Heath and Thatcher who brought City wisdom to the House – obituary Firmly on the Right (but not over Europe), Hordern was an early champion of monetarism and urged the Thatcher government to be more radical
And still on politics, older PBers will remember this, from the obituary of bank, Brinks-Mat and Hatton Garden robber Brian Reader:-
Reader’s first big job was a £2 million raid on Lloyds Bank, Baker Street, in September 1971 that involved tunnelling from the basement of a shop two doors away. In one safety deposit box he found child pornography that he claimed belonged to a Conservative cabinet member (one of several lurid rumours linked to the crime). He escaped prosecution, possibly by paying off police officers https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2024/04/24/brian-reader-brinks-mat-hatton-garden-crime/
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
Are you sure about that? How could they possibly when they have had 2 ministers in the government?
Probably because (a) the Greens were not in formal coalition, and/or (b) coalitions and looser associations were expected by the chaps who set up Holyrood, as all governments would be minority ones else, given the fiddled d'Hondtoid system.
So the size of the party and its exact role were more flexible than the baseline assumption of Con, Lab and LD for Westminster (why aren't the DUP, for instance, given Short Money? They certainly have a higher representation in NI than Labour do in England ...).
How were the LD's dealt with in the early years of Holyrood?
Having ministers means they are the executive, not the opposition. How else can you possibly define it?
The Christian Democrats still riding high. Social Democrats and liberals (FDP) still in deep trouble, while Greens weathering the anti-Government swing a bit better. AfD somewhat off the boil, with the anti-immigration and pro-Russian far left BSW picking up and probably safely above the 5% hurdle (unlike the Corbynist Die Linke which they split from). The problem of forming a potential non-SPD government remains - if the AfD are off-limits, the CDU will need both Greens and FDP to get a majority, which looks unlikely.
You skip the most incredible - and momentous - polling data from Germany. The hard right AfD is now the most popular party amongst Germans aged 14-29
This is really important because this is why Le pen is close to the French presidency. The young vote for her, it’s not just the old
I am pretty sure Britain will eventually follow this pattern. Why should we be immune? We might be. We probably aren’t
Of course in Britain it's unfashionable for young people to be right-wing, and has been for a long time, probably since the early 1960s. But interesting how that isn't the case in other European countries.
The young at that time voted for Thatcher in her early days. You'd generally say that while not immune, our patterns are the reverse of Europe's because while many of the problems facing young people are similar - though far from identical - here, a right that's been in power for 32 of the past 45 years and has been behind the major policy shifts (Thatcherism, Brexit), is seen as responsible for the failings that have hit today's younger working age people particularly hard.
Here too, it's been exacerbated by Conservative politicians in particular protecting and pandering to a now elderly generation at the expense of those younger. The average person in their late 60s/70s got on the property ladder cheaply and benefited from rocketing house prices, voted for the winning party in most elections, and were on the winning side on Brexit. They didn't pay tuition fees if they went to uni and got in on final salary pension schemes.
In contrast, if you graduated from university in 2010 and you're average, your wages have stagnated, you struggled or still struggle to get depending on where you live and what you earned when. Services you used bore the brunt of 'austerity' and you lost on Brexit and have fewer opportunities as a result. Most of those things are blamed on the right, so it's natural that the young tilt left - while being far more heterogenous than the woke caricature.
In contrast, in many European countries lots of the perceived problems of the young aren't blamed on the right - but on a complacent Social and Christian Democrat establishment and its European social model.
We've had our right-wing uprisings among the old, they very much haven't worked for today's younger people - ergo they aren't very right-wing, as see that politics as having failed them or being outright antagonistic to them.
The Scottish Greens have been claiming Short money as a supposed "opposition" party throughout the time of this parliament, so let's give the snot-coloured team a big thank you for opposing the SNP government, should they eventually get around to doing so. Unfortunately there's not much chance of them paying the money back.
Are you sure about that? How could they possibly when they have had 2 ministers in the government?
Probably because (a) the Greens were not in formal coalition, and/or (b) coalitions and looser associations were expected by the chaps who set up Holyrood, as all governments would be minority ones else, given the fiddled d'Hondtoid system.
So the size of the party and its exact role were more flexible than the baseline assumption of Con, Lab and LD for Westminster (why aren't the DUP, for instance, given Short Money? They certainly have a higher representation in NI than Labour do in England ...).
How were the LD's dealt with in the early years of Holyrood?
Having ministers means they are the executive, not the opposition. How else can you possibly define it?
Don't ask me, ask Labour and the LDs who made the original rules. I suspect they had this situation in mind from their own point of view, in case it was inconvenient for both of them to be under the bedclothes at the same time, so to speak.
Rishi running with the hardest geezer. At least the Tory haters can’t pretend he isn’t really running like they did with Boris… can they? There just be some way of criticising this… wrong brand of trainers? Shorts too short?
Rishi running with the hardest geezer. At least the Tory haters can’t pretend he isn’t really running like they did with Boris… can they? There just be some way of criticising this… wrong brand of trainers? Shorts too short?
Too many tweets is the complaint from his fellow Conservatives.
ETA the funny thing is that to go a couple of hundred yards from Downing Street to the Commons, the police insist on stopping traffic for a convoy of blue lights, but then he is all right to run round the place.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
That's all very well. But how many schools allow kids to be on smartphones? It's yet another solution the government is trumpeting which has been in place for years. Like the recent announcement that the unemployed who refuse a job will lose their benefits.
Certainly both my kid's schools had/have very strict policies about smartphones. Kids could bring them to school - for communication with parents etc before and after school - but they were banned from using them in school time including breaks. 6th formers were allowed a more relaxed policy but only in so far as allowing them to use them at lunchtime when they were allowed to leave school.
This seems a very sensible policy. It was very strictly enforced.
In answer to your question I know from friends that many schools do not have such policies in place.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
Yet another beautiful French city. Quimper. How do they do it?
No noom in that lovely cathedral tho
I got there too late, and left too early, to get into the cathedral, but loved my stroll around exploring Quimper
Quimper sounds like it should be an English word - or one of those fake answers in Call My Bluff.
What would it mean?
Isn't it pronounced Kim-pair?
In Chaucerian English I fear Quimper would be very rude.
It means “confluence” in Breton, because three rivers merge here. Which gives me an excuse to post another photo of relentlessly charming Quimper
Its pronounced khhaaaaAAAMP-eeaarrr
Camp-Ear?
You basically have to sound like you’re gargling mouthwash
That's most French words AFAIAC. Daft unpronounceable language for the Northern English male. Makes Welsh look easy.
I think I disagree.
Try and say "hamper" with an extra R and a faux-Scottish (?) accent.
Or think of a poor quality pear: ham-pear.
I'm surprised that @Leon put "a"s in the second half, which according to me nearly adds an extra syllable in French.
Or even better, ask Nick Clegg or Ed Davey, who have 4 or 5 languages each.
The Qu is like a K, so it’s more like Camp Air.
Is the Qu a hard pronunciation? I put it a little in the throat.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project .
I just have the dubious advantage of a lifetime spent around these dodgy Bretons, Normans and their island cousins. The amount of incommers who will see a surname like “Le Quesne” and pronounce it as “Le Kwesnee” instead of “Le Kane” or place names beginning with Qu as Kw is normal.
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
Basically, what you're saying is "remember how you pronounce quiche".
Reflecting on yesterday's interesting conversations on numinousness, I think when visiting somewhere historic, we look through personal sets of spectacles.
My habit is to take an interest in the human community that was there, looking at that story through the lens of the details that are still there, and my knowledge of the history. Others ways of looking are through an architectural view, or an aesthetic or artistic view.
I think the difference I feel between say a French and an English village church is that in the case of the English church it is the backstory of a community that still exists, whilst in French examples I have seen there is a feel of a memorial or museum to a community that ceased to exist in that place some time ago. Almost a skeleton vs a living body, to reach for an over-crude contrast.
I'd draw a comparison with my experiences some years ago (1990s) of walking the routes of London's now-subterranean rivers reading the signs in the landscape which remember where the used to flow. An example might be a garden boundary that used to follow the bank, but is still left now that the river has gone.
If you want simple "noom", I'd go for Escomb near Bishop Auckland over St Peter's on the Wall. A saxon church built around 675AD with stone mined from a roman fort, still in its round churchyard which is a a mark of 'ancient', simply dressed inside, still in the middle of its village inside a boundary road called Saxon Green. What a place to go to Midnight Communion on Christmas Eve.
For noom in London two I'd think about would be St Barts the Great, with (still, I hope) an amazing, small professional choir. And All Hallows on the Wall in the City, which has a ceiling like a regency drawing room inside.
But for me I'm equally interested in the human community, so that pulls in modern times. I used to be a member of the Othona Community, which is a network contemporaneous with the modern Iona Community (ie 1950s iirc) with their base at a centre in Bradwell near St Peter's on the Wall, where members visit to recharge their batteries. It's the only place known to me where I can gather kilos of damsons in the hedgerows.
In London I like the journey made by the now Lord Mawson, from being a discouraged young URC Minister in the early 1980s with an empty, echoing church in Bromley-by-Bow in the East End, to what is now a major community hub providing a plethora of community services used by 2000 people per week. There are not dissimilar projects of development of communities everywhere, which I see as part of the same story. I really enjoy exploring that type of story - whether in the 1600s or the 2000s.
Enough of that - have a good evening, all.
Good choices!
In terms of London churches with noom I’d also go for St John’s Chapel inside the Tower of London. Meganoom. Also St Sepulchre without Newgate - the Old Bailey church - all those condemned men. Anything by Hawksmoor but especially Spitalfields. And the Temple church is pretty noomy
I was living within 10 minute's walk of Spitalfields when it was being restored in the late 1990s, and the vicar was looking for how he would create a future for the community. I was just behind Wesley's Chapel - so on a street called "Paul Street", with Mark Street and Luke Street on the two other sides of the block - which was (I assume) a late 19C set of tiny apartments called Victoria Chambers. History everywhere, and an Architectural Salvage Yard out of the window.
It has one of the best, and most pleasant to use, rings of bells in London.
If Humza Yousaf loses vote, he doesn’t have to resign but senior sources close to FM tell me he would do honourable thing.
Technically it’s 28 days for Holyrood to vote in a new FM, or an election. In reality an interim FM could be voted in while SNP conducts leadership contest.
I think it is obvious that the intention of the VONC motion (look at the wording) is not to get the SNP government to fall, followed by an election but to embarrass them. Whether this is a good tactic depends on (a) whether it gets the votes and (b) if so, whether new leader K Forbes is a continuing embarrassment to the SNP or to the other parties.
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
That's all very well. But how many schools allow kids to be on smartphones? It's yet another solution the government is trumpeting which has been in place for years. Like the recent announcement that the unemployed who refuse a job will lose their benefits.
Certainly both my kid's schools had/have very strict policies about smartphones. Kids could bring them to school - for communication with parents etc before and after school - but they were banned from using them in school time including breaks. 6th formers were allowed a more relaxed policy but only in so far as allowing them to use them at lunchtime when they were allowed to leave school.
This seems a very sensible policy. It was very strictly enforced.
In answer to your question I know from friends that many schools do not have such policies in place.
In which case. How on Earth do they cope? My school they have to be switched off and handed in. And they are all put in a padlocked cabinet in a room in which only staff are allowed to go.
Excellent focus from Katanji Brown Jackson, the most recent SCOTUS Justice Appointment:
Q: Why is is not enough for the purposes of this case, given what the petitioner has argued, to just answer the question of whether all official acts get immunity?
A: That is enough, and if the Court answers the question as the Government has submitted that resolves the case.
KISS, and move on.
Answer, because the conservative majority (with the possible exception of ACB), appear desperate to find a way not to.
If there were a market on it, I’d bet they’ll kick the issue back to the circuit court - telling them to look more closely at the facts - in order to delay the trial past the election. Bullshit, of course, but they’ve been indulging in procedural bullshit since this started.
Rishi running with the hardest geezer. At least the Tory haters can’t pretend he isn’t really running like they did with Boris… can they? There just be some way of criticising this… wrong brand of trainers? Shorts too short?
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
That's all very well. But how many schools allow kids to be on smartphones? It's yet another solution the government is trumpeting which has been in place for years. Like the recent announcement that the unemployed who refuse a job will lose their benefits.
Certainly both my kid's schools had/have very strict policies about smartphones. Kids could bring them to school - for communication with parents etc before and after school - but they were banned from using them in school time including breaks. 6th formers were allowed a more relaxed policy but only in so far as allowing them to use them at lunchtime when they were allowed to leave school.
This seems a very sensible policy. It was very strictly enforced.
In answer to your question I know from friends that many schools do not have such policies in place.
In which case. How on Earth do they cope? My school they have to be switched off and handed in. And they are all put in a padlocked cabinet in a room in which only staff are allowed to go.
Many schools just don't bother. One of my closest friends went for a change of career about 5 years ago and retrained as a physics/science teacher. This was down in Cornwall. He tells me that none of the schools he did his training or subsequently started teaching in had policies regardng phones beyond a loose dictum against using them in class. But the students still did and there was basically nothing he could do about it.
Should also add that the vocal opposition to a smartphone ban comes from certain parents. Not from the kids.
What kind of parent WANTS their kid to use a smartphone in school?!
They want them to be contactable. Or to just ramble on about the parent's day during lesson time. Or text them. Or send them memes. Or send utterly inappropriate videos. To take photos. To record lessons or incidents, to prove the school is lying. Or a hundred and one other things. We are frequently assured Child x "won't cope" without a phone. They do.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
Reagan’s seat would be on a pretty shoogly peg if an early election was held. Of course she may have persuaded herself that her personal qualities would overcome any of those quibbles. History suggests that might be the case.
I'd have thought the bigger reason there won't be an early election is that it wouldn't suit the Conservatives (and clearly wouldn't suit the SNP). They'd be likely to go backwards and pretty much certain to move from second to third party. So they'd like to bring down Yousaf but not the whole show.
Kinda Russian roulette though, since no bugger seems to knows how things will pan out. Which new FM would the SCons back?
A coupla thoughts. 1. This is a VONC in Humza - not the Govt. Therefore if he loses doesn't mean an election. 2. With Greens supporting the VONC the math indicates he will need Alba MSP Ash Regan's support. That means, effectively, that his fate rests in Alex Salmond's hands. A real LOL.
There is a lively debate about this on Wings at the moment. Campbell is suggesting that Ross has fluffed this by having a VONC in Yousaf rather than the government. I am not sure that is right. I think that a VONC in Yousaf would require him to resign. I am not sure how we would get another FM within 28 days.
He would have no option but to resign David. Even his brass neck could not try and ignore that, bigger question is will he go before rather than suffer the ignomy.
No, it means that it all turns on the vote of Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes for the government, and the story is that she intends to, then the vote will be a tie at 64 votes each. In those circumstances the Presiding Officer will normally vote in favour of the government of the day.
I'm lost. So the SNP and greens are voting against Humza and everyone else is voting in favour?
you really are lost Cookie. Everybody apart from SNP is voting against Humza and Ash Regan has the casting vote, what fun.
How can a Supreme Court justice indulge in such tendentious reasoning ? A reminder that Kavanaugh - along with a couple of his fellow justices - was once a GOP political operative.
Kav opines from bench that Ford pardon of Nixon was "probably the reason he lost in 1976."
Gee, if there were only some way to ask people involved in that campaign about the decisive factor. Hint: It wasn't the pardon.
Comments
Maybe I will find my super noomy megalith after all
The god bothering ways of Kate Forbes (I mean she's closer to the American right than the rank and file of the SNP and indeed Scottish voters) when it comes to abortion will be a bit like dubious about homosexuality Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems.
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/04/now-that-alba-have-gained-balance-of.html
I wonder what she will do. Very talented and bright, but stuck in a limited, provincial British party that no longer really wants her
Notwithstanding that the two most senior ministers seem to be Angus Robertson and Shona Robison if they want more "continuity". Forbes is unacceptable to many in the SNP and her elevation would amount to a hostile takeover and a total reversal of the Sturgeon progressive political strategy.
There are 63 SNP MSPs. The opposition have 65 but this includes Ash Regan who is now in Alba. If she votes with the SNP they win (just). If she votes against they should lose if everyone else votes the way they have announced. Big call for her. She'd very likely lose her seat given Alba is barely troubling the scorers.
Q: Why is is not enough for the purposes of this case, given what the petitioner has argued, to just answer the question of whether all official acts get immunity?
A: That is enough, and if the Court answers the question as the Government has submitted that resolves the case.
KISS, and move on.
The SNP might be better off just going for the election to be honest. If they get propped up by a minority interest again, their coalition frays further.
https://twitter.com/AlbaParty/status/1783497621132198063
Question is- who?
He will have to be shamed into resigning
I think that she has been fairly pragmatic on the religious issues. She has said that she would have voted against gay marriage but has no plans to change it. I don't think that is the deal breaker. The bigger problem is the schism in the SNP between the Sturgeon central belt left wing progressives and the rural "tartan Tory/Liberal" wing. She is obviously in the latter but they are less than half the party as the election of Yousaf showed.
My top tips are
1 - Underexpose by 0.5-1 stops, because a normal auto-colour-balance will pull detail out of dark areas, which is completely lost in overexposed highlights.
2 - If possible get dull light behind the window .
3 - Take it straight on so Photoshop can more easily undo the perspective distortion.
4 - A cheap monopod or travel tripod is worth its weight. I have one I take on the bike.
If a vote of no confidence is passed by the Scottish Parliament in the FM is that not a means by which the office of FM becomes vacant? I think it is arguable that it is. I think he would have to resign. But hey, we are in unchartered waters here.
https://x.com/saeeddicaprio/status/1783516069312778302?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Makes sense.
When Ash Regan defected to Alba, Humza Yousaf said she was “no great loss to the SNP group”.
Now she gets to decide whether he survives as first minister or not.
Just too good.
https://www.parliament.scot/msps/members-expenses/financial-assistance-to-non-government-groups-short-monies
I don't understand why this is lawful.
Perhaps languages will be by retirement project
Shades of the Johnson recast of the Conservative party uniting small and big staters, just so long as the state was British.
(For our English brethren who don't follow these things closely, the Tory leader Ross is also a referee).
Congress has voted that the Chinese company ByteDance must divest TikTok. (Or rather, must divest the US facing TikTok.)
It will be interesting to see who acquires it: it's too big for Snapchat. Facebook/Meta would face antitrust issues.
Netflix, perhaps? Although they have a lot of debt. Microsoft, Amazon and Google are all possibles.
So the size of the party and its exact role were more flexible than the baseline assumption of Con, Lab and LD for Westminster (why aren't the DUP, for instance, given Short Money? They certainly have a higher representation in NI than Labour do in England ...).
How were the LD's dealt with in the early years of Holyrood?
If Humza Yousaf loses vote, he doesn’t have to resign but senior sources close to FM tell me he would do honourable thing.
Technically it’s 28 days for Holyrood to vote in a new FM, or an election. In reality an interim FM could be voted in while SNP conducts leadership contest.
Patriotic: 33%
Not patriotic: 45%
Via
@YouGov
, 25 April 2024
SKS needs a flag of St George tattoo on his forehead surely it's a price worth paying to get a Red Tory Government.
June 12.5
July 7.6
Oct 4.4
Nov 2.0
Dec 12.0
Not sure why movement today?
How does the arithmetic work in a No Confidence Vote, if say, an MSP happened to be getting charged by the police that afternoon???
@dmthomas90
New study from Norway: Banning smartphones in schools significantly decreases the proportion of girls presenting with mental health issues and bullying drops dramatically. Benefits most strongly felt by disadvantaged girls.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4735240
https://twitter.com/dmthomas90/status/1783412603408035911
The idea that Humza Yousaf's political fate may now lie in the hands of Ash Regan, the woman who left the SNP in disgust at its plans for gender self-ID, reminds me...
Reflecting on yesterday's interesting conversations on numinousness, I think when visiting somewhere historic, we look through personal sets of spectacles.
My habit is to take an interest in the human community that was there, looking at that story through the lens of the details that are still there, and my knowledge of the history. Others ways of looking are through an architectural view, or an aesthetic or artistic view.
I think the difference I feel between say a French and an English village church is that in the case of the English church it is the backstory of a community that still exists, whilst in French examples I have seen there is a feel of a memorial or museum to a community that ceased to exist in that place some time ago. Almost a skeleton vs a living body, to reach for an over-crude contrast.
I'd draw a comparison with my experiences some years ago (1990s) of walking the routes of London's now-subterranean rivers reading the signs in the landscape which remember where the used to flow. An example might be a garden boundary that used to follow the bank, but is still left now that the river has gone.
If you want simple "noom", I'd go for Escomb near Bishop Auckland over St Peter's on the Wall. A saxon church built around 675AD with stone mined from a roman fort, still in its round churchyard which is a a mark of 'ancient', simply dressed inside, still in the middle of its village inside a boundary road called Saxon Green. What a place to go to Midnight Communion on Christmas Eve.
https://escombchurch.co.uk/
For noom in London two I'd think about would be St Barts the Great, with (still, I hope) an amazing, small professional choir. And All Hallows on the Wall in the City, which has a ceiling like a regency drawing room inside.
But for me I'm equally interested in the human community, so that pulls in modern times. I used to be a member of the Othona Community, which is a network contemporaneous with the modern Iona Community (ie 1950s iirc) with their base at a centre in Bradwell near St Peter's on the Wall, where members visit to recharge their batteries. It's the only place known to me where I can gather kilos of damsons in the hedgerows.
In London I like the journey made by the now Lord Mawson, from being a discouraged young URC Minister in the early 1980s with an empty, echoing church in Bromley-by-Bow in the East End, to what is now a major community hub providing a plethora of community services used by 2000 people per week. There are not dissimilar projects of development of communities everywhere, which I see as part of the same story. I really enjoy exploring that type of story - whether in the 1600s or the 2000s.
Enough of that - have a good evening, all.
There has been a 15pt decrease in perceived Tory party patriotism since 2021
% saying the Conservative party is very/fairly patriotic
April 2024: 40%
February 2021: 55%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Labour party
April 2024: 33%
February 2021: 35%
All you ever have to remember is that we beat the French at the Bay of Quiberon in the seven years war and it’s Keeberon Bay.
But how many schools allow kids to be on smartphones?
It's yet another solution the government is trumpeting which has been in place for years. Like the recent announcement that the unemployed who refuse a job will lose their benefits.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Far-Distant-Ships-1793-1815-Revolution/dp/1911512145
In terms of London churches with noom I’d also go for St John’s Chapel inside the Tower of London. Meganoom. Also St Sepulchre without Newgate - the Old Bailey church - all those condemned men. Anything by Hawksmoor but especially Spitalfields. And the Temple church is pretty noomy
He did French and German to A-level, which is a strong enough foundation to build on if you keep speaking them, plus PPE. I'm not sure where the Spanish came from, as I don't recall him doing it at school. Most of us did French and German to age 16.
But I'm guessing Lib Dems having the EU at the heart of their vision would help in maintaining international contact.
David Marquand, cerebral and moderate Labour MP influential in the rise of the SDP and Blairism – obituary
Despite his abilities, he was never made a minister, due perhaps to his moderation and readiness to say the (in Labour circles) unsayable
Lord Field of Birkenhead, Labour MP who dedicated his career to tackling child poverty – obituary
When The Spectator named him Constituency Member of the Year in 1985, he missed the ceremony as he was ‘engaged on constituency work’
Sir Peter Hordern, backbencher under Heath and Thatcher who brought City wisdom to the House – obituary
Firmly on the Right (but not over Europe), Hordern was an early champion of monetarism and urged the Thatcher government to be more radical
And still on politics, older PBers will remember this, from the obituary of bank, Brinks-Mat and Hatton Garden robber Brian Reader:-
Reader’s first big job was a £2 million raid on Lloyds Bank, Baker Street, in September 1971 that involved tunnelling from the basement of a shop two doors away. In one safety deposit box he found child pornography that he claimed belonged to a Conservative cabinet member (one of several lurid rumours linked to the crime). He escaped prosecution, possibly by paying off police officers
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2024/04/24/brian-reader-brinks-mat-hatton-garden-crime/
Here too, it's been exacerbated by Conservative politicians in particular protecting and pandering to a now elderly generation at the expense of those younger. The average person in their late 60s/70s got on the property ladder cheaply and benefited from rocketing house prices, voted for the winning party in most elections, and were on the winning side on Brexit. They didn't pay tuition fees if they went to uni and got in on final salary pension schemes.
In contrast, if you graduated from university in 2010 and you're average, your wages have stagnated, you struggled or still struggle to get depending on where you live and what you earned when. Services you used bore the brunt of 'austerity' and you lost on Brexit and have fewer opportunities as a result. Most of those things are blamed on the right, so it's natural that the young tilt left - while being far more heterogenous than the woke caricature.
In contrast, in many European countries lots of the perceived problems of the young aren't blamed on the right - but on a complacent Social and Christian Democrat establishment and its European social model.
We've had our right-wing uprisings among the old, they very much haven't worked for today's younger people - ergo they aren't very right-wing, as see that politics as having failed them or being outright antagonistic to them.
I have managed to get another 40km done, and found myself quite a nice hotel room for 50€
https://x.com/rishisunak/status/1783496206276071848?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
ETA the funny thing is that to go a couple of hundred yards from Downing Street to the Commons, the police insist on stopping traffic for a convoy of blue lights, but then he is all right to run round the place.
This seems a very sensible policy. It was very strictly enforced.
In answer to your question I know from friends that many schools do not have such policies in place.
It is a cross sectional study comparing mental health and educational information, with schools deciding their own phone policies.
It has one of the best, and most pleasant to use, rings of bells in London.
Good times with challenges.
Much of the world is not working properly
Just wait till the planning laws are changed to allow roof extensions like this.
My school they have to be switched off and handed in. And they are all put in a padlocked cabinet in a room in which only staff are allowed to go.
If there were a market on it, I’d bet they’ll kick the issue back to the circuit court - telling them to look more closely at the facts - in order to delay the trial past the election. Bullshit, of course, but they’ve been indulging in procedural bullshit since this started.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WbS1g_MlzdA
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/two-million-britons-suffer-long-covid-symptoms-survey-shows-2024-04-25/
We are frequently assured Child x "won't cope" without a phone.
They do.
A reminder that Kavanaugh - along with a couple of his fellow justices - was once a GOP political operative.
Kav opines from bench that Ford pardon of Nixon was "probably the reason he lost in 1976."
Gee, if there were only some way to ask people involved in that campaign about the decisive factor. Hint: It wasn't the pardon.
Attached, 1976 NYT sample of how Carter handled it...
https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1783537937805623714