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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM
At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election.
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New Populus VI: Lab 37 (-1); Cons 34 (+1); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 12 (-1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140303
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Russians_Ukraine_2001.PNG
Crimea is the only area with an ethnic Russian majority.
It may continue, or it may not continue, but had you had said to me as a Tory a couple of years ago, or even a year ago, that with 15 months ago, the Tories are around 3-5 points behind Labour, I'd have bitten your hand off.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/f1-2014-second-and-third-tests.html
The first is the Scottish independent vote, the second being some form of black-swan event, whether Ukraine or similar..
Like the Indyref - looks like it will take GO to win it.
Remember as well that to win most seats the Tories probably going to need lead of 4%+
@Pulpstar
Aren't these oligarchs mostly fairly anti-Putin ?
No. The Kensington Russians are middle class oligarchs who remain employed in Putin's Russia.
It is John O who houses most of the Yeltsin era anti-Putin aristocratic oligarchs. Englefield Green, Virginia Water and Woking and the dogging country of Esher are where the aristocratic palaces are located.
Do a search for "country houses" on Savills or Knight, Frank and you will quickly see that great estates of yore have been replaced by one acre manor houses of the home counties at the top of the value list.
Whilst it's undoubtedly home to many disaffected blues, UKIP have also taken on a good share of white working class sorts who might otherwise vote Labour.
That said, I'm expecting Ed Miliband to become Prime Minister next May.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
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Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :
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E Ukraine is the rich part of the country because it has lots of natural resources in the Donbass. W Ukraine has an economy based on wood and goat's cheese with surly french farmers looking them kept out of the EU.
At the factory I used to run in CZ one the cleaners was from the Ukraine. She was a qualified doctor but took a cleaning job in CZ because it was better paid !
The Ukrainian crisis originates in economic division not inter-ethnic strife.
AndyJS revealed a couple of days ago that the population in the Ukraine has fallen by seven million in decade.
In the first two months of this year, ITAR-TASS is reporting that 700,000 Ukrainians have entered Russia through border controls.
These emigrants (although many of the ITAR-TASS numbers will be traders rather than permanent emigres) are not fleeing civil war or persecution. They are seeking income and jobs.
It is not as if the Ukrainians are looking to Putin's Russia for liberal and honest governance either. Corruption and oppression reigns both sides of the border. It is just the cake to be divvied up is bigger on the Russian side.
Note to the SNPers. This post does not denigrate Scotland™
Cam will need some wins over renegotiation. I'm sure its not lost on Angela Merkel that she could have a big say on UK 2015.
I think Western Ukranians look at Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and see countries that had GDP's per capita of less than $5,000 a decade ago, and now have incomes three times that level. They think: "we threw our lot in with the Russians for more than a decade and a fat lot of good it's done us, let's see if we can do what Latvia did".
It can't be long before a squealing piglet bares its trotters.
Poland: $20,562
Lithuania: $21,383
Estonia: $21,714
Latvia: $18,058
Russia: $17,581
Ukraine: $7,295
With 14 months to go, 2 budgets, more economic optimism and more bucks in peoples take home pay, I reckon we will start to see a small Tory lead. I'm still convinced that when people see and hear more of rEd in election campaign they will look at him and think "Do I really want to be governed and represented on the world stage by this odd looking socialist nerd, that sounds a Nasal Nightmare?"....
http://news.stv.tv/politics/265962-stv-poll-should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-yes-32-no-57/
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-25th-february-2014
"Analysis by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for The Sunday Times shows how strong UKIP has become. The professors at Plymouth University Elections Centre have recalibrated their celebrated analysis of more than 100,000 votes cast in council by-elections and now put UKIP in third place in their latest national forecast: Labour 34%, Tories 28%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dems 13%.
Since last year’s council elections, UKIP has taken 10 seats from the Conservatives and two each from Labour and the Lib Dems. In places where it stands, UKIP takes an average 22% of the vote"
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/adamboulton/article1370209.ece
The interesting thing for me is what government results from that. I very much doubt the Lib-Dems will drop below 40 seats, or Labour top a net 30 gains, given all the local and incumbency factors, so the Tories should be set-up ok for a (much weaker) renewal of the coalition agreement, albeit on a overall joint majority of 20-ish.
The question is whether both parties would go for it again. I really don't know the answer to that.
On Mike's thread header, it is simply not the case that there is 'no sign' of any movement. There is a sign of some movement, and that is the Tories up-ticking from 31-32% to c.34% over the last 2-3 weeks.
Of course, all the usual questions about whether that can be sustained/improved upon apply etc. but it's not 'no-change' by any means.
Incidentally, what are the persecutions of the Russian-speakers? Were they shot down on the streets like Ukrainian-speakers were under Yanukovych? Were they beaten up by angry mobs, as Ukrainian-speakers have been in recent days in Donetsk and Sevastapol? Or was it something worse?
I think it might have been Putin's opposition to Scottish secession that is turning the polls.
Those Sukhoi interceptors off the Firth of Forth must have been worrying.
I propose a singular but robust titter.
Western Ukraine will, hopefully, become a stable and functioning democracy on the lines of the baltic states.
From last December.
As we enter the final nine months of campaigning before next year’s referendum, our latest poll for STV News will provide a boost for those arguing in favour of Scotland becoming an independent country. Among those certain to vote in next year’s referendum, 34% would vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum were held now (up by three percentage points from September 2013), while 57% would vote ‘No’ (down two points) and 10% are undecided.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3310/Support-for-Scottish-independence-goes-up-in-latest-Ipsos-MORISTV-News-poll.aspx
The hope I cling to as a tory is that the govt. still has some cards to play.
As reported by ITAR-TASS the Russian news agency... seems like a reliable source. Is that the same agency reporting that Ukrainians are currently fleeing to Russia, when the current hour-long queues are actually on the border with Poland....
Is there risk to the downside? Possibly, but I think there's probably a hard core to the Yes side which means less than 35% is unlikely.
Of course, polling now is not an infallible guide to a referendum in six months' time.
Still less for an election in 14 months' time.
60 Yes
36 No
4 DK
or
62.5 Yes
37.5 No
Only a Westminster Unionist could possibly fail to see that.
lol, chortle, tears of laughter, etc
Estonia has 1.3 million people. Latvia 2 million.
The Ukraine had 48.5 million (2001) and now has 44.6 (2013 estimate).
Estonia and Latvia always topped the GDP per capita figures during the times of the USSR.
Poland may be a better comparison but does the EU, IMF and US have the resources needed to lift the Ukraine's economy up to Polish levels, especially if Russia closes its markets?
The only solution to this crisis is a deal between Russia, the EU, IMF, US and a new 'representative' Kiev government.
If that is unachieveable, then Ukraine will be partitioned and the West Ukraine will become just a larger version of Moldova.
Well that was a quote from another poster but I take your point.
At this stage, a slow improvement is ok. If by conference season the Tories are level pegging - and even with this drift they could be - then we can make some surer predictions.
What we can agree it does show is that Osborne's 2012 'omnsihambles' budget was a calamity of almost election losing proportions. The Tory version of Gordon Brown's disastrous election-that-never-was.
There's a tendency to compare polls including DKs to polls excluding DKs and likelihood to vote.
Is why I keep a spreadsheet with them all in, makes things easier to track.
Is the relative length of border control delay significant?
The R & T vote shares, Lab 34%, Con 28%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 13% are probably similar to the vote shares we'll see in the local elections. Due to the way it's vote is spread, UKIP won't win anything like 17% of the seats. But, even winning 5% of council seats would give the party another 220 councillors.
In the Euros, I'd expect to see the Conservatives and Labour polling below those shares, and UKIP well above 17%.
Turnout is the better option. McARSE is projecting close to 80%. There are plenty of tasty odds available on that basis
Both of which, George Osborne figured heavily in (it was his IHT pledge that in part stopped Brown going to the country in 2007)
Now, given that the 2015 Budget is likely to the be start of the General Election campaign, Tories should be both afraid and reassured.
Quite. Churchill remarked during WW1 that the commander of the grand fleet admiral Jellicoe was the 'only man who could lose the war in an afternoon.'
That's sort of true of Osborne.
We Nats are still starstruck over last night's Oscars ceremony.
http://tinyurl.com/p5t9qr3
We have consulted on an appropriate approach for determining the composition of the list of major parties ahead of the elections taking place on 22 May 2014.
Our decision is that the United Kingdom Independence Party ("UKIP") should be added to the list of major parties in England and in Wales for the 2014 European Parliament elections.
The practical effect of this decision is as follows:
Broadcasters transmitting PEBs on a UK/Great Britain-wide basis (such as Channel 5 in the European Parliamentary elections) will be obliged to treat UKIP as a major party across the whole of England, Wales and Scotland (i.e. Great Britain) as a whole.
STV will not be required to treat UKIP as a major party for the purposes of broadcasting Scotland-only PEBs. This reflects the fact that UKIP has low levels of support in Scotland.
However, ITV Wales will have to treat UKIP as a major party for the purposes of broadcasting Wales-only PEBs, reflecting the fact that UKIP has significant levels of support in Wales
In news and current affairs election programming that focuses on the European Parliamentary elections across England, Wales and Scotland (i.e. Great Britain) as a whole, UKIP will be treated as a major party across the whole of England, Wales and Scotland (i.e. Great Britain). However, in news and current affairs election programming that focuses on the European Parliamentary elections in just Scotland, UKIP will not be treated as a major party in such programming.
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/consultations/major-political-parties-2014/statement?utm_source=updates&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=major-parties-2014
I wonder if Osborne will knock off a couple of pennies off fuel-duty in the 2015 Budget?
Whatever 'spare' cash he does have, you can bet your bottom pound he'll do something politically funky with it.
I'd like (personally) to see reform on stamp-duty, but I'm not sure that passes the funk test.
Sorry if you allocate the leanings of the unsure's, you get
62.5 No
37.5 Yes
What was the question again?
Anyhoo, I depart for Edinburgh tomorrow morning, by the end of Thursday I'll let you know how my taxi driver focus group is planning to vote.
Fortunately I managed to correct it before anyone noticed.
Natural gas prices from the U.K. to Germany jumped amid escalating tension in Ukraine, the main transit route of the fuel from Russia to consumers in the west.
U.K. gas for next-month delivery climbed as much as 10 percent, the biggest gain since September 2011, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
Should do a little bit to help close our balance of payments deficit.
Surely they've got a pool of all Tory/Labour/LibDem donors to draw upon, plus big UK business, CBI affiliates and not to mention David Bowie.
They should be rolling in it. Yet they've (apparently) failed to raise even half their £7m target.
Meanwhile, 'Yes' is seemingly lapping it up from a couple of euromillions winners.
It's a bit odd, to say the least.
So how is this not a big swing to no, given that is 62.5/37.5
The SNP will be thrilled, Eck will likely self combust and then the polls will inch further away from YES.
Yup, more "bullying". We Scots just luv it !!
This evening at 7.30pm on BBC1
The BBC is set to announce the UK's 2014 Eurovision entrant, with rumours strongly suggesting it will be newcomer Molly Smitten-Downes.
This year's contestant was chosen through the BBC's Introducing strand, which champions undiscovered talent.
It marks a break with the UK's recent choices, which have relied on veteran names such as Bonnie Tyler and Engelbert Humperdinck.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26414284
Lib Dems don't have any money, there's no marginals for the Tories to win in Scotland, pragmatism will rule the day.
If the other two unionist parties are unwilling and unable to contribute much, then it may fall to Labour to make up the shortfall, but with a General Election on the horizon, they may be forced to choose between two unappealing choices, spend money trying to keep one of their traditional heartlands in the Union, from their general election funds, or try and win a general election without one of their traditional heartlands.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/06/07/how-much-of-an-influence-will-money-have-on-the-independence-referendum/
Fortunately I cowardly hid behind the palpable error rule when the first punter noticed the rick! (shame on me)
"A warning by Britain's three main political parties that they would rule out a currency union with an independent Scotland has "backfired in spectacular fashion", Alex Salmond has said.".
UKIP want to have a debate about the EU in the run up to the EU Parliament elections, but political coverage in the UK seems to be focussed on 'gaffes'.
How do the median Ukrainian and Russian incomes compare, adjusted for purchasing power parity? What about the 20th percentile and the 80th? Such comparisons will tell us whether the Russian people are really more prosperous, or whether the figures you cite are distorted by a small number of Russians with extremely high incomes, pulling their national average up.
Russia’s gas giant Gazprom said on Monday it did not rule out possible disruptions of gas supplies to Europe over Ukraine’s political situation.
“Simmering political tensions in Ukraine, that are aggravated by inadequate economic conditions, may cause disruptions of gas supplies to Europe,” the monopoly said in its materials, adding that it would do its utmost to reduce export risks. “We will further invest into other export-oriented projects such as South Stream and will enhance our LNG (liquefied natural gas) production and export capacity. We also increase our access to underground gas storage facilities in Europe.”
Whoever thought that might happen?
I've donated £100 myself, and, I must admit, I feel a bit lonely. There must be a few thousand patriotric unionists, like me, in England/Wales (yet alone Scotland) willing to do their bit, surely?
Scottish independence does not seem to be getting any more likely - and recent polls not shifting pic.twitter.com/6CMC2wyDri