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My apologies to the Turnip Taliban – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Pessimistic thread about the war in Ukraine:

    https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1780264953548570818

    The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action.

    There's a phrase that covers this: "the enemy gets a vote". The other side wishes to defeat you and will adapt their plans and actions to counter what you do. If one delays unnecessarily then they will work out ways to counter you.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Banning cigarettes via some kind of intrusive age check mechanism. Just ugh, Britain.

    The country seems full of curtain-twitching killjoys.

    You are in full, total and 100% agreement with... TRUSS 😜
    Seems so wrong but feels so RIGHT.
    If people had just given it a little more time they may have found being Trussed up was not all that uncomfortable.
    :roll: don't get Leon all excited again...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Liz makes the front pages again:

    image

    What an amazing front page.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    Angela Rayner’s only ‘crime’ is being an uppity lass
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/angela-rayners-only-crime-is-being-an-uppity-lass-zd9wwwtld (£££)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    DougSeal said:

    I think Truss still wants to be noticed. Doesn’t matter if she’s laughed at, just noticed. Some reality show gig is not beyond the realms.

    She’d suit a reboot of Challenge Anneka
    Channel 5 actually ran that last year.

    Sadly, it did so poorly that they didn't even broadcast all the episodes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    I’m sure Sunak is loving the fact that Truss has eaten up another day in the news cycle.

    What it shows, though, and as this thread has also revealed is that Sunak was and is the best candidate of the three.

    Even if that's not necessarily saying very much.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    GIN1138 said:

    Banning cigarettes via some kind of intrusive age check mechanism. Just ugh, Britain.

    The country seems full of curtain-twitching killjoys.

    You are in full, total and 100% agreement with... TRUSS 😜
    Indeed:

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1780283856639099158
    She’s quite right.
    But she, and I, are decidedly out of temper with the times. People want to be mollycoddled, and they want to see other people suffer privation, as we saw during the pandemic.
    Yes, this is quite so.

    The pandemic was an awful time not only for the actualite but for what it revealed about fellow Britons: there is no depth whatsoever to our love of liberty in this country.

    None.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    kle4 said:

    Banning cigarettes via some kind of intrusive age check mechanism. Just ugh, Britain.

    The country seems full of curtain-twitching killjoys.

    If government wants cigarettes banned just get it over with and ban for everyone. I know why they are not doing that, but if it is so bad people should be prevented from doing it then why is it ok to continue to let people do it (legally) just because they already are?

    It's a disgusting, inexplicable habit, but I'd have voted against the measure myself.
    I completely agree with you. Same.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865

    I’m sure Sunak is loving the fact that Truss has eaten up another day in the news cycle.

    What it shows, though, and as this thread has also revealed is that Sunak was and is the best candidate of the three.

    Even if that's not necessarily saying very much.
    The irony is that people characterise Rishi Sunak in the same way they did Liz Truss. They both, it is said, approach problems with a mathematical logic in search of the "correct" answer, but ignore that politics is about persuasion and group dynamics and that sometimes 2 + 2 does equal 5. The only difference is Liz did not try to take people with her, whereas Rishi tries and fails.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    edited April 17

    Pessimistic thread about the war in Ukraine:

    https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1780264953548570818

    The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action.

    Entirely realistic to say that, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Not sure I agree with that. I think Europe has become ever more alert to what is at stake here and has stepped up its efforts. The problem has been in the USA and specifically in the Republican party who have blocked aid packages in Congress for months.

    Because Europe is so dependent on the US for material and logistics even their more enthusiastic efforts have been stymied. Our failure to have a source of 155mm shells is a classic example. Only the US on the western side has the stocks to sustain a war for any length of time.

    I have been growing increasingly pessimistic about this war since the second half of last year after it became clear that the Summer offensive had been an expensive (in terms of manpower) failure and the fantasies that Russia was running out of missiles, shells, armour and men were exposed. I think we will seriously regret not doing more if the Ukrainians are driven into submission. We are close to this now.
    It would be a strategic and humanitarian disaster.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Not sure I agree with that. I think Europe has become ever more alert to what is at stake here and has stepped up its efforts. The problem has been in the USA and specifically in the Republican party who have blocked aid packages in Congress for months.

    Because Europe is so dependent on the US for material and logistics even their more enthusiastic efforts have been stymied. Our failure to have a source of 155mm shells is a classic example. Only the US on the western side has the stocks to sustain a war for any length of time.

    I have been growing increasingly pessimistic about this war since the second half of last year after it became clear that the Summer offensive had been an expensive (in terms of manpower) failure and the fantasies that Russia was running out of missiles, shells, armour and men were exposed. I think we will seriously regret not doing more if the Ukrainians are driven into submission. We are close to this now.
    It would be a strategic and humanitarian disaster.
    I totally agree. But we have not done enough to prevent it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    EPG said:

    This bit of business in Brussels has spectacularly backfired. A conference nobody would have remembered in a week's time, turned into undeserved and extralegal martyrdom.

    Conference?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Just look at this place. Our Ukraine ultras barely mention them now. Twelve months ago they were stating what the terms were for,the end of the conflict.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.
    All I can say is thank goodness the homophobes didn't hit on the idea of a scare campaign about queers in men's changing rooms a few decades ago.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Taz said:

    Liz makes the front pages again:

    image

    What an amazing front page.
    It’s really high quality

    Every segment of the page has a purpose (mockery) and achieves it with style and elan
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Not sure I agree with that. I think Europe has become ever more alert to what is at stake here and has stepped up its efforts. The problem has been in the USA and specifically in the Republican party who have blocked aid packages in Congress for months.

    Because Europe is so dependent on the US for material and logistics even their more enthusiastic efforts have been stymied. Our failure to have a source of 155mm shells is a classic example. Only the US on the western side has the stocks to sustain a war for any length of time.

    I have been growing increasingly pessimistic about this war since the second half of last year after it became clear that the Summer offensive had been an expensive (in terms of manpower) failure and the fantasies that Russia was running out of missiles, shells, armour and men were exposed. I think we will seriously regret not doing more if the Ukrainians are
    driven into submission. We are close to this now.
    I think you are overly pessimistic

    The Russian advances have been small and localised. They’ve been achieved by dumping very large bombs on Ukrainian positions and then pushing conscripts through the gaps.

    They haven’t made a strategic breakthrough.

    If the US (ie the Republicans) remember their duty then Ukraine will win. If not then Russia will grind them into submission.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.

    All I can say is thank goodness the homophobes didn't hit on the idea of a scare campaign about queers in men's changing rooms a few decades ago.
    Really?

    I’m surprised. It was before my time but it would strike me as an obvious line to take.

    (Access to safe spaces is entirely different though and SelfID to facilitate it is garbage)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    She wants to abolish the Supreme Court. Not just leave the European Court. Not just abolish the HRA. But leave the UK Supreme Court as well. I think the only remaining step is to abolish the Senate and send Tarkin in with that new toy he keeps banging on about. ☹️

    https://x.com/TheSun/status/1779856171916029979#m

    Well, it's not as though the Supreme Court is some ancient institution or something, but I'm not really clear why it would help her cause. Listen to people like Jolyon Maugham and they reckon the current Supreme Court is supine towards government and not standing up to it enough, and would judicial functions being exercised through the Lords again suddenly stop legal challenges or something?
    The fox batterer and his ilk are upset that the U.K. Supreme Court has not declared its supremacy over Parliament.

    Which would obviate the need to win elections and things - just run the country from there. Bit like the US.

    Because that is working so well.
    The Supreme Court is, in essence, a committee of the House of Lords* rebadged and moved to the other side of Parliament Square. Do those who advocate its abolition want to return to the status quo ante and, if not, what will be the final arbiter of legal questions of application across the UK?

    (*The SC doesn’t hear Scots Law criminal appeals because the post-Union House of Lords, as a successor of the pre-1707 Scottish Parliament, found it had inherited no such jurisdiction from that body, but that it had done so in civil matters)
    It does still annoy me though that Blair with his fatal reverence for all things Yankeeside chose such an utterly naff name.

    What was wrong with 'Judicial Committee of the Privy Council' (which I believe is one name it still legally uses when hearing cases from various Commonwealth realms)? Quintessentially British and no unfortunate parallels to the criminal organisation in DC.
    The JCPC, manned by SC judges as you say, but technically a separate body, has a few other residual jurisdictions but the main issue was devolution. You need a body without the appearance of bias (at least) to resolve devolution disputes. JCPC is, like the Cabinet, technically a subcommittee of the Privy Council, so there’s a conflict with the central government executive - or at least the appearance of one.
    The First Minister is also a Privy Councillor, so that doesn't wash.

    We're back to 'fatal reverence for all things Yankeeside...'
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    This episode of Trashfuture does a good review of some of the main issues with the Cass Report:

    https://trashfuturepodcast.podbean.com/
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    nico679 said:

    More nanny state diktats .

    Why are governments so obsessed with banning things ?

    Over 70,000 people per year die from smoking in the UK. That’s double the number of Gazans killed by the war with Israel. Shouldn’t the Government do something about that scale of death toll?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 17
    148grss said:

    This episode of Trashfuture does a good review of some of the main issues with the Cass Report:

    https://trashfuturepodcast.podbean.com/

    Meanwhile WPATH doubles down:

    WPATH comes out swinging against the Cass Review, asserting that the majority of gender-dysphoric adolescents would fare better if they received puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones, not simply the holistic psychotherapy that Cass supports for English minors....

    According to the Williams Institute, an estimated 300,000 Americans 13 to 17 year old identify as transgender....

    By asserting that most gender-dysphoric teens would do better with a medical transition, WPATH contradicts the AAP*, whose president wrote: "Gender-affirming care...doesn’t push medical treatments or surgery; for the vast majority of children, it recommends the opposite." That was in the Wall Street Journal in August 2022.

    Note that as the Cass Review observed, there is no evidence to support the claim that providing puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to adolescents with gender distress mitigates their elevated suicide death rate.


    https://x.com/benryanwriter/status/1780417622737027121

    emphasis added
    *American Academy of Pediatrics
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    148grss said:

    This episode of Trashfuture does a good review of some of the main issues with the Cass Report:

    https://trashfuturepodcast.podbean.com/

    Have you apologised for mischaracterising the review yesterday?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,773

    nico679 said:

    More nanny state diktats .

    Why are governments so obsessed with banning things ?

    Over 70,000 people per year die from smoking in the UK. That’s double the number of Gazans killed by the war with Israel. Shouldn’t the Government do something about that scale of death toll?
    100% of non smokers die.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    edited April 17
    Good morning, everyone.

    I think the smoking ban is crackers. It also has the problem of creating a financial gap as the income from tax on cigarettes exceeds the cost of medical care for related conditions.

    Edited extra bit: for the record, I don't approve of smoking. While it's also not something I'd support, a total ban would be fairer than this weird version.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Just look at this place. Our Ukraine ultras barely mention them now. Twelve months ago they were stating what the terms were for,the end of the conflict.
    What do you mean by "Ukraine ultras" ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    More nanny state diktats .

    Why are governments so obsessed with banning things ?

    Over 70,000 people per year die from smoking in the UK. That’s double the number of Gazans killed by the war with Israel. Shouldn’t the Government do something about that scale of death toll?
    100% of non smokers die.
    I don’t smoke. I’m not dead.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    edited April 17
    Good morning everybody; quite bright here and the wind seems to have dropped.
    I have reservations about the smoking bill, not so much about the principle; discouraging smoking is a good idea. However, how is it going to work in practice? If someone says they’re old enough to smoke, how is a shopkeeper to prevent them buying cigarettes? Certainly by the time they get into their 20s (that’s the age not the size of the packet). I suppose the argument is that by the time anyone affected by the ban gets into their 20s smoking will become so unusual that no one will actually sell tobacco!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Inflation down to 3.2%.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Cookie said:

    nico679 said:

    More nanny state diktats .

    Why are governments so obsessed with banning things ?

    Over 70,000 people per year die from smoking in the UK. That’s double the number of Gazans killed by the war with Israel. Shouldn’t the Government do something about that scale of death toll?
    100% of non smokers die.
    I don’t smoke. I’m not dead.
    As a non-smoker, one of the great unsung societal changes since my youth is the fact I can go into pubs, shops and (if I still did that sort of thing...) clubs without having to suffer the sickly stench of selfish smokers.

    I'm ambivalent over this new law - the existing laws have pretty much worked for me.

    But one thing I would do is this: any adult who smokes in a home that has children in it should be prosecuted for child abuse. The child gets the poison, and gets no choice. (I'm only half-joking...)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.
    All I can say is thank goodness the homophobes didn't hit on the idea of a scare campaign about queers in men's changing rooms a few decades ago.
    There was a fair bit of that. Not changing rooms, but Section 19 made it impossible to be an out gay teacher for example. That wasn't ancient history.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Not sure I agree with that. I think Europe has become ever more alert to what is at stake here and has stepped up its efforts. The problem has been in the USA and specifically in the Republican party who have blocked aid packages in Congress for months.

    Because Europe is so dependent on the US for material and logistics even their more enthusiastic efforts have been stymied. Our failure to have a source of 155mm shells is a classic example. Only the US on the western side has the stocks to sustain a war for any length of time.

    I have been growing increasingly pessimistic about this war since the second half of last year after it became clear that the Summer offensive had been an expensive (in terms of manpower) failure and the fantasies that Russia was running out of missiles, shells, armour and men were exposed. I think we will seriously regret not doing more if the Ukrainians are driven into submission. We are close to this now.
    I agree, but what I'd like to be true and what is true are sadly two different things.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    DougSeal said:

    I think Truss still wants to be noticed. Doesn’t matter if she’s laughed at, just noticed. Some reality show gig is not beyond the realms.

    She’d suit a reboot of Challenge Anneka
    Channel 5 actually ran that last year.

    Sadly, it did so poorly that they didn't even broadcast all the episodes.
    I watched it. In the intervening years DIY SOS has filled the gap with their bug build shows, and have nailed the format. The rebooted Challenge Anneka seemed a poor imitation (despite being, if you like, the original). Perhaps they could have rebooted Treasure Hunt instead? The one with the helicopter, contestants in a library(!) and lots of shots of pert bottoms by the naughty camera operator (almost certainly male).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.
    Please, not again.

    Please.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    Disappointed that the Lib Dem couldn't muster up a liberal defence of smoking being legal, especially given the long-standing support of weed legalisation.

    And it makes a mockery of the law that, in a decade's time, a 25-year old could be found to be criminal for doing something anyone 30 or above is permitted to do freely.

    Utter rubbish.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    on topic:
    tbf I don't think Truss did much damage to 'Britain's international reputation' - she didn't last long enough. It's true that she is only known internationally for not lasting as long as a lettuce; everyone loves that story - which actually helps reinforce the British reputation for having an irreverent sense of humour. So, positive, in a way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    NEW THREAD

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    Ratters said:

    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    I wonder if Richi wants it to be his 'legacy' ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Ratters said:

    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    Disappointed that the Lib Dem couldn't muster up a liberal defence of smoking being legal, especially given the long-standing support of weed legalisation.

    And it makes a mockery of the law that, in a decade's time, a 25-year old could be found to be criminal for doing something anyone 30 or above is permitted to do freely.

    Utter rubbish.

    The problem with smoking is that it's not just whether or not someone personally disapproves or approves of: it affects everyone around the smoker in a direct manner.

    Second-hand smoke kills.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    .

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Not sure I agree with that. I think Europe has become ever more alert to what is at stake here and has stepped up its efforts. The problem has been in the USA and specifically in the Republican party who have blocked aid packages in Congress for months.

    Because Europe is so dependent on the US for material and logistics even their more enthusiastic efforts have been stymied. Our failure to have a source of 155mm shells is a classic example. Only the US on the western side has the stocks to sustain a war for any length of time.

    I have been growing increasingly pessimistic about this war since the second half of last year after it became clear that the Summer offensive had been an expensive (in terms of manpower) failure and the fantasies that Russia was running out of missiles, shells, armour and men were exposed. I think we will seriously regret not doing more if the Ukrainians are
    driven into submission. We are close to this now.
    I think you are overly pessimistic

    The Russian advances have been small and localised. They’ve been achieved by dumping very large bombs on Ukrainian positions and then pushing conscripts through the gaps.

    They haven’t made a strategic breakthrough.

    If the US (ie the Republicans) remember their duty then Ukraine will win. If not then Russia will grind them into submission.

    The grinding is accelerating, as Ukraine simply doesn't have the kit to fight back that it did.
    From HIMARs to mortar bombs, the cupboard is pretty bare.

    And they don't have anything to counter the glide bombs which are devastating the front lines - and front line cities.

    Kharkiv at risk of becoming ‘second Aleppo’ without US aid, mayor says
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/17/kharkiv-at-risk-of-becoming-second-aleppo-without-us-aid-mayor-ukraine-russia

    Europe has stepped up its aid, to some extent - but it doesn't have the arms reserves the U.S. does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    .

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is basically an uber libertarian, probably more at home with ultra small state conservative DC think tanks than farmers in her Norfolk constituency

    What uber libertarian policies has she proposed/pursued?
    She is anti civil service, wants to slash taxes and the size of the state and is socially very liberal on most issues
    What has pointing out institutional issues within the civil service got to do with libertarianism?

    Truss's tax cuts, had they been implemented in full, would have amounted to £25 billion being left in peoples' and companies' pockets, from £1,100 billion of government receipts in 2026-27. How is that relatively modest level of tax cut, still leaving taxes at a 70 year high, 'uber-libertarian'?

    What are these uber-libertarian social policies Truss has advocated - would she legalise or decriminalise any banned substances? Legalise prostitution? Raise the upper limit for abortion? If anything, her proposed trans bill is fairly conservative socially: https://news.sky.com/story/liz-truss-furious-after-mps-accused-of-blocking-transgender-reform-bill-13095370

    But can you point to any 'uber-libertarian' social policies pursued by her?
    She wants to abolish the Equality Act.

    Judging by the spectacular amount of reactionary ignorant rubbish being posted by @148grss and others on the previous thread but one - all of it detrimental to the interests of women (& don't give me @Topping's "who knows what a woman is?" bollocks - men have no difficulty knowing this, especially when it comes to putting them in their place) - I am surprised she does not get more support on here.

    Abolishing laws preventing discrimination against women is probably very popular amongst a certain demographic.

    She's batshit insane. But then so are lots of voters.

    The Tories IMO will be obliterated at the next election. So it scarcely matters who they elect as leader.

    Other than for good governance, having a proper opposition to hold the government to account and so on. But who cares about any of that these days?
    Good evening cyclefree. I see you didn't read all of all my posts. No matter. Perhaps you can help clear those final two points up which are: safe spaces (and sport for that matter) need to be protected but aside from this how do you know what we will know as a woman 100 years from now; and secondly
    please help me to understand why trans isn't the new gay.

    TIA
    Being gay is someone’s sexual preference. It doesn’t require life altering surgery at a point when you *may* just be confused.

    Slow down, think, wait until you are slightly older and more mature. Then decide.
    How old, and how long ?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076

    Ratters said:

    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    Disappointed that the Lib Dem couldn't muster up a liberal defence of smoking being legal, especially given the long-standing support of weed legalisation.

    And it makes a mockery of the law that, in a decade's time, a 25-year old could be found to be criminal for doing something anyone 30 or above is permitted to do freely.

    Utter rubbish.

    The problem with smoking is that it's not just whether or not someone personally disapproves or approves of: it affects everyone around the smoker in a direct manner.

    Second-hand smoke kills.
    So I presume it will be legal to smoke on your own?

    And if you did want to transition to ban, it should apply equally to all adults. The generational discrimination is the most ridiculous part of the law.

    As is the fact the existing, much more liberal anti-smoking campaign is working:


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    S Korea continues to grow as an arms supplier.

    HD Hyundai signs $463 million deal to build 4 warships in Peru
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=372877
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Ratters said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    Disappointed that the Lib Dem couldn't muster up a liberal defence of smoking being legal, especially given the long-standing support of weed legalisation.

    And it makes a mockery of the law that, in a decade's time, a 25-year old could be found to be criminal for doing something anyone 30 or above is permitted to do freely.

    Utter rubbish.

    The problem with smoking is that it's not just whether or not someone personally disapproves or approves of: it affects everyone around the smoker in a direct manner.

    Second-hand smoke kills.
    So I presume it will be legal to smoke on your own?

    And if you did want to transition to ban, it should apply equally to all adults. The generational discrimination is the most ridiculous part of the law.

    As is the fact the existing, much more liberal anti-smoking campaign is working:

    (Snip)
    I have no problem with someone (an adult) smoking on their own. As I said below, I am ambivalent about the new law. And if I may expand on that a little - it is a law where I fear that unintended consequences may come into play.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Ratters said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding the smoking ban:

    God this country is full of illiberal, busy bodies who like to stop other people doing things they don't personally approve of.

    Disappointed that the Lib Dem couldn't muster up a liberal defence of smoking being legal, especially given the long-standing support of weed legalisation.

    And it makes a mockery of the law that, in a decade's time, a 25-year old could be found to be criminal for doing something anyone 30 or above is permitted to do freely.

    Utter rubbish.

    The problem with smoking is that it's not just whether or not someone personally disapproves or approves of: it affects everyone around the smoker in a direct manner.

    Second-hand smoke kills.
    So I presume it will be legal to smoke on your own?

    And if you did want to transition to ban, it should apply equally to all adults. The generational discrimination is the most ridiculous part of the law.

    As is the fact the existing, much more liberal anti-smoking campaign is working:


    That's my problem with the law. Making it illegal for some adults but not others - even if that's a delayed situation - is setting a baleful precedent.

    I'd be fine with an outright ban.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Just look at this place. Our Ukraine ultras barely mention them now. Twelve months ago they were stating what the terms were for,the end of the conflict.
    No one can sustain the level of focus on a particular topic endlessly. Commentators and even governments dropping interest in Ukraine was inevitable. What wasn't inevitable was undermining Ukraine by dropping support, but that is what has happened.

    Absent a miracle this is the year they get forced to the bargaining table, and at that point Putin already wins. Then the West will wring its hands and say 'Shucks, that's bad but we have to accept the status quo'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Foxy said:

    148grss said:

    This episode of Trashfuture does a good review of some of the main issues with the Cass Report:

    https://trashfuturepodcast.podbean.com/

    Meanwhile WPATH doubles down:

    WPATH comes out swinging against the Cass Review, asserting that the majority of gender-dysphoric adolescents would fare better if they received puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones, not simply the holistic psychotherapy that Cass supports for English minors....

    According to the Williams Institute, an estimated 300,000 Americans 13 to 17 year old identify as transgender....

    By asserting that most gender-dysphoric teens would do better with a medical transition, WPATH contradicts the AAP*, whose president wrote: "Gender-affirming care...doesn’t push medical treatments or surgery; for the vast majority of children, it recommends the opposite." That was in the Wall Street Journal in August 2022.

    Note that as the Cass Review observed, there is no evidence to support the claim that providing puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to adolescents with gender distress mitigates their elevated suicide death rate.


    https://x.com/benryanwriter/status/1780417622737027121

    emphasis added
    *American Academy of Pediatrics
    That seems to be gross distortion and misreading of what WPATH have actually said:





    At no point does it say that most young Trans people should be on hormonal treatments, just that it is a part of treatment to consider. That is something Cass advocates for too, just in an evidence based research driven way.

    A major theme of the Cass report is the difficulty discussing the issue because of polarised extremists. Misrepresenting what people have said is part of that.
    Though, TBF, the practical effect of the Cass report will be to put hurdles in the way of such treatment that will simply remove the possibility of that option for many, if not most young people for the next few years. Rightly or wrongly.

    Otherwise, agreed.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Just look at this place. Our Ukraine ultras barely mention them now. Twelve months ago they were stating what the terms were for,the end of the conflict.
    No one can sustain the level of focus on a particular topic endlessly. Commentators and even governments dropping interest in Ukraine was inevitable. What wasn't inevitable was undermining Ukraine by dropping support, but that is what has happened.

    Absent a miracle this is the year they get forced to the bargaining table, and at that point Putin already wins. Then the West will wring its hands and say 'Shucks, that's bad but we have to accept the status quo'.
    Europe hasn't dropped support - and in some capitals is beginning to wake up to the fact that it's now a strategic emergency - but domestic US politics has put their aid almost completely on hold for half a year.

    There's a lot more we could, and should do.

    As an example, this should have been an issue at least a year ago, not now.

    MBDA Under Pressure To Rebuild Missile Production Capacity
    https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/mbda-under-pressure-rebuild-missile-production-capacity
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited April 17
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Strong words.

    ZELENSKY TO U.S: WHAT YOU DID FOR ISRAEL - WHY NOT THE SAME FOR UKRAINE?

    🇺🇸BLINKEN: IRAN IS NOT RUSSIA.

    ZELENSKY:
    "I can tell you frankly that we have no chance of winning without US support.

    You need to be much stronger than your enemy.

    Today, our artillery ratio is 1-10. Can we hold our ground?
    No.

    With this artillery ratio, they'll be pushing us back every day.

    To defend 100% of what's in our control, we must go from 1-10 to 10-10."

    Source: PBS News Hour

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1780310689929646112

    The crisis has been coming for several weeks now. And it’s here. We must do all we can do. Now.
    The sad truth is the US, and much of Europe, has just got bored of Ukraine.

    Putin knows this. And he will exploit it.

    Just look at this place. Our Ukraine ultras barely mention them now. Twelve months ago they were stating what the terms were for,the end of the conflict.
    No one can sustain the level of focus on a particular topic endlessly. Commentators and even governments dropping interest in Ukraine was inevitable. What wasn't inevitable was undermining Ukraine by dropping support, but that is what has happened.

    Absent a miracle this is the year they get forced to the bargaining table, and at that point Putin already wins. Then the West will wring its hands and say 'Shucks, that's bad but we have to accept the status quo'.
    Europe hasn't dropped support - and in some capitals is beginning to wake up to the fact that it's now a strategic emergency - but domestic US politics has put their aid almost completely on hold for half a year.

    There's a lot more we could, and should do.

    As an example, this should have been an issue at least a year ago, not now.

    MBDA Under Pressure To Rebuild Missile Production Capacity
    https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/mbda-under-pressure-rebuild-missile-production-capacity
    Europe cannot manage on its own anymore, that is pretty clear. It was from the start.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    148grss said:

    This episode of Trashfuture does a good review of some of the main issues with the Cass Report:

    https://trashfuturepodcast.podbean.com/

    Meanwhile WPATH doubles down:

    WPATH comes out swinging against the Cass Review, asserting that the majority of gender-dysphoric adolescents would fare better if they received puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones, not simply the holistic psychotherapy that Cass supports for English minors....

    According to the Williams Institute, an estimated 300,000 Americans 13 to 17 year old identify as transgender....

    By asserting that most gender-dysphoric teens would do better with a medical transition, WPATH contradicts the AAP*, whose president wrote: "Gender-affirming care...doesn’t push medical treatments or surgery; for the vast majority of children, it recommends the opposite." That was in the Wall Street Journal in August 2022.

    Note that as the Cass Review observed, there is no evidence to support the claim that providing puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to adolescents with gender distress mitigates their elevated suicide death rate.


    https://x.com/benryanwriter/status/1780417622737027121

    emphasis added
    *American Academy of Pediatrics
    That seems to be gross distortion and misreading of what WPATH have actually said:





    At no point does it say that most young Trans people should be on hormonal treatments, just that it is a part of treatment to consider. That is something Cass advocates for too, just in an evidence based research driven way.

    A major theme of the Cass report is the difficulty discussing the issue because of polarised extremists. Misrepresenting what people have said is part of that.
    Though, TBF, the practical effect of the Cass report will be to put hurdles in the way of such treatment that will simply remove the possibility of that option for many, if not most young people for the next few years. Rightly or wrongly.

    Otherwise, agreed.

    What the Cass report says and what will be implemented are two different things.

    The Tavistock has closed doors before new services have started, those new services are struggling to recruit, so in effect the report is being used as a way of closing down youth Trans services, the complete opposite of what Cass advocates.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Lennon said:

    Totally OT but saw this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68831408 and thought of @Sandpit ...

    Lennon said:

    Totally OT but saw this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68831408 and thought of @Sandpit ...

    It’s okay, we all got to work from home yesterday and today, same as a snow day in the UK.
This discussion has been closed.