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The woman who lost to a lettuce wants to comeback as Tory leader – politicalbetting.com
The woman who lost to a lettuce wants to comeback as Tory leader – politicalbetting.com
Liz Truss refuses to rule out running for Tory leader again in her #LBC interview with @IainDale tonight."I have unfinished business, and I think the Conservative party has unfinished business".Expect to see that on Labour leaflets come the general election…
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The Tories are really idiotic if they think November is a good time to hold an election here. The main attention will go to Trump. The Tories are deeply and irreconcilably divided on Trump, so they will inevitably look like the divided party they are. And the Tories need attention domestically to somehow catch up in the polling.
As they are indeed idiotic expect a November election.
Indeed Farage and Braverman are off to a far right conference with Orban
The one nation conservative party seems a long way off but apparently Sunak is seeking accreditation for their Conference this year at the end of September- early October, all pointing to a GE in November
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1779871215936532781?t=jU44qQWg8ZUuksJ-WmhVlw&s=19
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/15/hampshire-village-little-london-fears-country-pads-new-homes-wealthy
Surely now it's not a case of if, but when. It's Truss's time. In fact, many people say this is The Age of Truss.
TRUSS.
This will of course be a mistake because Trump just doesn't translate here. He's too exotic. But I think it'll happen. Trump will then say a few nice things about Sunak and the Tories, because a journalist somewhere will ask him, and he'll say some disparaging things about Starmer. That won't be a positive for Labour - an insult is an insult and tends to stick a bit no matter where it comes from - but it will also be a negative for the Tories.
Down to $27.15 now. Question must be how many MAGAs are willing to keep buying as the price falls. Down roughly `16% in a day.
James Bagge looks like a Tory. The retired army officer, barrister and former high sheriff of Norfolk sounds like a Tory. He cheerfully confirms that he is a Tory and he drives a deeply Tory car, a beaten-up silver Volvo A70 with 160,000 miles on the clock and a quietly farting golden retriever recumbent on the back seat. His great-great-grandfather was a Tory MP. But at the next general election Bagge, 71, wants to destroy the Conservative Party.
He is standing as an independent candidate in rural South West Norfolk, the seat where blink-and-you-missed-her ex-prime ministerial disaster zone Liz Truss commanded a majority of 26,195 votes in 2019...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-norfolks-true-blue-tories-are-on-a-mission-to-unseat-liz-truss-crh8m8dhs
As for Liz Truss and "unfinished business", haven't she and Kwasi K finished off enough businesses already? (He, at least, seems to have the sense and decency to keep his head down.)
Who is the greatest leader in world history?
Is it:
a) MARY ELIZABETH TRUSS
b) MARY ELIZABETH TRUSS
c) MARY ELIZABETH TRUSS
d) All of the above
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead widens to twenty points in our latest results.
Con 25% (-1)
Lab 45% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 5% (-1)
Other 4% (+2)
Fieldwork: 12th-15th April 2024
Sample: 1,944 GB adults
(Changes from 22nd-25th March 2024)
Long since yesterday's compost.
QED
Doing the perp walk does not seem to a great look for the investors though. Down 16% today.
The judge rehashes Trump's other arguments, including claims about his daughter.
"To say that these claims are attenuated is an understatement," Merchan adds.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1779874108416655465
Over the defense's objections:
The judge ALLOWS prosecutors to show jurors evidence about Trump's arrangement with AMI's David Pecker that he would publish flattering stories about Trump and negative stories about his opponents before the 2016 election.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1779880491883098552
Prosecutors note that the judge already allowed that in during a pre-trial ruling.
Justice Merchan says that ruling stands — but for now, on a separate matter, he won't let prosecutors mention that Melania was pregnant at the time of the alleged affair with Daniels.
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1779882369861771686
I don't know a single party member who would vote for her again.
I'll publish the results of the poll later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcYYgcGjrP0
AI Summary:
The text discusses the fear of a second American Civil War due to the social divide between left and right. The upcoming election is seen as crucial, with Biden supporters fighting for democracy and Trump supporters fighting to save the country. The text also explores potential outcomes, including a focus on domestic issues and centralization of power. It highlights the weaknesses of the conservative faction, both physically and psychologically, in a civil war scenario. The text addresses the issue of insurgency and the challenges the right may face. It contrasts the right's civilian preparation with the left's strategic preparations. The text debunks false examples of asymmetrical warfare and provides a relevant example in Ukraine's war with Russia. Overall, it presents a detailed analysis of the risks and outcomes of a second Civil War, emphasizing the need for a realistic and strategic approach to conflict resolution.
My Commentary
Realistic assessment by a right-wing US YouTuber and historian of the odds of a Civil War and who would win. TLDR: it's a stupid idea and the faction that starts it will lose.
https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer
*net is a given, he's not very offensive - but gross?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4638643#Comment_4638643
So you all know how to refer to me from now on.
Yours,
The Master
TRUSS.
Now they will try again, with Badenoch or Braverman, and almost certainly fail again. Eventually they will break out of this psychic loop but by the time they do the party may be entirely defunct as an electoral force
As of today 5 consecutive opinion polls have been published with Labour leads of 20%+ which is the first time this sequence has occurred since last September. The steady trend away from the Conservatives continues. For Rishi ‘things can only get worser’
Net approval for @Keir_Starmer increases by seven points, while net approval for the Prime Minister @RishiSunak falls by one point.
She will probably eke out a career giving her opinion on all and sundry; which will help convince people actually in power that they need to do the exact opposite.
“Shortly, we will be seeking an order to show cause why Defendant should not be held in contempt” for violating the gag order."
They pretend to have her conviction, her intellect, her strength of character - but they’re weak, unconvincing, superficial. Whatever your views of Thatcher, she is in a completely different league to the leading politicians of this generation.
We could do with a politician of the calibre of Thatcher. But yes, the Thatcher mythos needs consigning to history now.
And yet... since then, the Conservative leadership has been really unstable. The lesson the party took from 1990 was to dump the leader when things are going badly. Even when they aren't actively having a leadership election, Conservative leaders are clearly paranoid that there's about to be one.
The US states are already lining up into broadly partisan parallel worlds separated by ideology, religion and way of life. Lawmakers are diverging from any kind of federal consensus on how to run things. Although voters are putting the brakes on some of this, notably on abortion rights, it continues to happen. In a cold war you get proxy battles in border states. In this US cold civil war the Vietnams or Afghanistans are taking place in courtrooms or on the Mexican border or outside abortion clinics.
So the second civil war is here, and it's a cold war.
Basically: in my view, you cannot fully see if someone would be a great PM until they get the job. I was expecting Johnson to be a terrible PM, and I was right, unusually for the right reasons. But he could have changed and surprised me.
Likewise, I'm expecting Starmer to be dull but competent. I hope that's the case; but we won't know if he surprises on the downside or upside until he is tested (although it would be hard for him to go further on the downside than Sunak...)
Liz Truss was put on this planet to attempt to prove that someone could actually be a more ridiculous PM than Boris Johnson. Even in this she failed.
Boris Johnson's position as most preposterous premier is, and always will be, unassailable.
Which he can't explain.
Jo Coburn: What crime do you think Angela Rayner committed?
James Daly(Tory MP): We should allow the police investigation to proceed
JC: But what do you think she's done?
JD: We should allow them to carry out that investigation
JC: What's the offense?..
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1779836620297953392
Sunak is the one I have been most wrong on, thought he could be the new John Major, even share a love of cricket. Others broadly been as expected.
If Opinium, or Savanta, release a poll with a >20% lead then that would be a change and would indicate a new pattern.
There's never been a disease-modifying drug for Parkinson's disease to slow its progression. Now there may be two emerging.
—GLP-1
https://nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2312323
@NEJM
—anti-synuclein antibody
https://nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02886-y
@NatureMed
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1779898447224844527
I suspect this is the kind of case where the Supreme Court (with the exception of Thomas and possibly Alito) will be keen to demonstrate their independence.
TRUSS.
But, I can only agree with all those who’ve already commented. Letting Truss back to the frontline would be an act of electoral suicide for the Conservative Party. My mates who don’t talk politics much always bring her up when they grumble about their mortgage costs.
The worst thing is I almost want to defend Truss - rates couldn’t stay at near zero and inflation hit eleven. But by god she sped up the process of rate increases when she and Kwatang bypassed the OBR and the markets with their crazy budget. And “you broke it you own” rules apply I guess.
I doubt it.
Shares in blind trust managed by Don Jnr... 1st Amendment rights ... etc.
5/4 ruling in favour of the President.
Elon would probably suck it up, anyway, in exchange for his not crippling the EV industry.
She's be William Hague and IDS combined
So I don’t think it is “silly”. Sometimes when the pattern begins to form it takes a while for everyone to see it. Put more empirically, the Conservatives dropped another 2% in March. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
People will look back on these as the Horror Years. Short of WWIII, which may yet happen, almost everything that could go wrong, did.
I see no reason for them to change before the election is called in the autumn
What is equally disturbing is that anyone with half a brain would think that just because he is not "of the left" then he might be appropriate for high office. He should be locked up (usual innocent until proven guilty caveats even apply to him)
Neither MPs nor members would back her now
Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).
24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling—18% would vote for Labour, and 7% would vote for other parties.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/former-britishvolt-site-house-data-28998765
Furthermore Liz Truss is absolutely right to bring the argument back to who has been more supportive to the UK - that's the only dog we have in this fight, and something too many of us are utterly blind to, either because we feel the national interest is a dirty concept, or because we're the sort of thicko who defaces the cenotaph because an American policman killed someone.
https://x.com/montie/status/1779808504083054709?s=61
I’m not saying it will continue to the point where there’s Reform-Conservative crossover but there is a pretty clear ongoing fall in support for the Conservatives.