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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020
    darkage said:

    I would comment that Britain is pretty much on the same level now with Finland in terms of cost of living. The only really noticeable expense that is cheaper in england is beer from the supermarket. Everything else is pretty similar.

    99p a bottle for Banks's Bitter from Aldi!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 7

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    Did the end of white supremacy in South Africa, Australia, or New Zealand, or the end of the Confederacy in North America meaning killing millions of whites?

    Were South African white supremacists respected in large parts of the western middle classes and ruling class as having a right to vet opponents of white supremacy just to check they weren't principally motivated by anti-whitism?

    One person, one vote, in a secular Palestine from the river to the sea. Equal rights. Not difficult to understand. If there are nuclear-armed fascists standing in the way, which there are, well the international community had better address the problem because it's not going to go away by itself.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Eh? It was shortly after Iranian proxies attacked Eilat. While Hezbollah has been firing into northern Israel. Iran is already trying to do what it's always done - use its proxies to hit Israel and provoke while hiding behind the idea responding against them directly is escalation. I wouldn't buy the mullahs propaganda.

    The Israeli aim there is to deter Iran from further support for attacks via proxies by showing they will respond and there will be a cost, believing (hopefully correctly) that while Iran talks grandly of wiping Israel out and retaliation, it has no stomach for a war that risks collapsing their own regime. Which is not to say it might all go wrong - wider wars often start by miscalculation. But the hope would be deterrence, not escalation, and the fear that not responding to Iranian attacks would invite more in the belief it's a cost free way to further undermine Israeli's security.

    The last thing the Israelis, even the ogreish Netanyahu, want while still mired in Gaza is a wider war on their northern and North Eastern border. They'd be badly stretched and while the US can provide cover, it would be the IDF who'd have to conduct a second incredibly difficult ground operation - possibly more so militarily than Gaza - albeit with fewer civilians in harm's way.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    darkage said:

    I would comment that Britain is pretty much on the same level now with Finland in terms of cost of living. The only really noticeable expense that is cheaper in england is beer from the supermarket. Everything else is pretty similar.

    99p a bottle for Banks's Bitter from Aldi!
    For an extra penny you can buy it in the upmarket settings of ASDA, Tesco or Morrisons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,844

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    Perhaps I am Churchill shouting in the wilderness with the equivalent of 1939 coming when this country is forced to live within its means.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 7
    MJW said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Eh? It was shortly after Iranian proxies attacked Eilat. While Hezbollah has been firing into northern Israel. Iran is already trying to do what it's always done - use its proxies to hit Israel and provoke while hiding behind the idea responding against them directly is escalation. I wouldn't buy the mullahs propaganda.

    The Israeli aim there is to deter Iran from further support for attacks via proxies by showing they will respond and there will be a cost, believing (hopefully correctly) that while Iran talks grandly of wiping Israel out and retaliation, it has no stomach for a war that risks collapsing their own regime. Which is not to say it might all go wrong - wider wars often start by miscalculation. But the hope would be deterrence, not escalation, and the fear that not responding to Iranian attacks would invite more in the belief it's a cost free way to further undermine Israeli's security.

    The last thing the Israelis, even the ogreish Netanyahu, want while still mired in Gaza is a wider war on their northern and North Eastern border. They'd be badly stretched and while the US can provide cover, it would be the IDF who'd have to conduct a second incredibly difficult ground operation - possibly more so militarily than Gaza - albeit with fewer civilians in harm's way.
    If that's the last thing they want, they should listen to you, then, because bombing Damascus including an embassy may not be the best way to go about avoiding it.

    We'll be able to judge whether you're right by whether or not they do carry out further provocations. If the poor red heifer for example gets it, then either the Israelis want a much wider war, or else they're run by insane religious loonies rather similar to the kind that they tell everyone Gaza and Iran are run by, except more extreme, or both. Meanwhile, remind me of the party affiliation and background of the Israeli national security minister.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    Perhaps I am Churchill shouting in the wilderness with the equivalent of 1939 coming when this country is forced to live within its means.
    Ironically, Churchill famously lived beyond his means, as did Britain: we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    I cannot help feeling that the best way of stopping the development of nuclear weapons is with the use of nuclear weapons.

    The risks and costs would be great but Israel may well feel that the risks and costs of not using them would be even greater.

    It is not us who will be making the decisions in this geopolitical game but corrupt politicians and religious fundamentalists on both sides.

    The world could well do without Bibi and the Ayatollahs.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Donkeys said:

    MJW said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Eh? It was shortly after Iranian proxies attacked Eilat. While Hezbollah has been firing into northern Israel. Iran is already trying to do what it's always done - use its proxies to hit Israel and provoke while hiding behind the idea responding against them directly is escalation. I wouldn't buy the mullahs propaganda.

    The Israeli aim there is to deter Iran from further support for attacks via proxies by showing they will respond and there will be a cost, believing (hopefully correctly) that while Iran talks grandly of wiping Israel out and retaliation, it has no stomach for a war that risks collapsing their own regime. Which is not to say it might all go wrong - wider wars often start by miscalculation. But the hope would be deterrence, not escalation, and the fear that not responding to Iranian attacks would invite more in the belief it's a cost free way to further undermine Israeli's security.

    The last thing the Israelis, even the ogreish Netanyahu, want while still mired in Gaza is a wider war on their northern and North Eastern border. They'd be badly stretched and while the US can provide cover, it would be the IDF who'd have to conduct a second incredibly difficult ground operation - possibly more so militarily than Gaza - albeit with fewer civilians in harm's way.
    If that's the last thing they want, they should listen to you, then, because bombing Damascus including an embassy may not be the best way to go about avoiding it.

    We'll be able to judge whether you're right by whether or not they do carry out further provocations. If the poor red heifer for example gets it, then either the Israelis want a much wider war, or else they're run by insane religious loonies rather similar to the kind that they tell everyone Gaza and Iran are run by, except more extreme, or both. Meanwhile, remind me of the party affiliation and background of the Israeli national security minister.
    Correction: consulate, not embassy. Still totally unlawful though.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    Perhaps I am Churchill shouting in the wilderness with the equivalent of 1939 coming when this country is forced to live within its means.
    Ironically, Churchill famously lived beyond his means, as did Britain: we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be!
    I fear that many millions would now abandon the defence of the country if the cost was not having a foreign holiday, having their home value fall, have their football team do worse, spend less on the NHS, give up triple lock pensions or a myriad of other things.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,844
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
    I think that their recent actions are more likely to unify the country behind the Ayatollahs. Self harming once again, just as their approach in Gaza has been.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904
    Microsoft has published a non-technical guide to Chinese use of trolls, AI and social media to influence foreign politics, especially American.

    China tests US voter fault lines and ramps AI content to boost its geopolitical interests
    https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2024/04/04/china-ai-influence-elections-mtac-cybersecurity/
    https://cdn-dynmedia-1.microsoft.com/is/content/microsoftcorp/microsoft/final/en-us/microsoft-brand/documents/MTAC-East-Asia-Report.pdf


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    I DON'T LIKE BAR CHARTS.

    I LOVE THEM!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Donkeys said:

    MJW said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Eh? It was shortly after Iranian proxies attacked Eilat. While Hezbollah has been firing into northern Israel. Iran is already trying to do what it's always done - use its proxies to hit Israel and provoke while hiding behind the idea responding against them directly is escalation. I wouldn't buy the mullahs propaganda.

    The Israeli aim there is to deter Iran from further support for attacks via proxies by showing they will respond and there will be a cost, believing (hopefully correctly) that while Iran talks grandly of wiping Israel out and retaliation, it has no stomach for a war that risks collapsing their own regime. Which is not to say it might all go wrong - wider wars often start by miscalculation. But the hope would be deterrence, not escalation, and the fear that not responding to Iranian attacks would invite more in the belief it's a cost free way to further undermine Israeli's security.

    The last thing the Israelis, even the ogreish Netanyahu, want while still mired in Gaza is a wider war on their northern and North Eastern border. They'd be badly stretched and while the US can provide cover, it would be the IDF who'd have to conduct a second incredibly difficult ground operation - possibly more so militarily than Gaza - albeit with fewer civilians in harm's way.
    If that's the last thing they want, they should listen to you, then, because bombing Damascus including an embassy may not be the best way to go about avoiding it.

    We'll be able to judge whether you're right by whether or not they do carry out further provocations. If the poor red heifer for example gets it, then either the Israelis want a much wider war, or else they're run by insane religious loonies rather similar to the kind that they tell everyone Gaza and Iran are run by, except more extreme, or both. Meanwhile, remind me of the party affiliation and background of the Israeli national security minister.
    If you're the kind of person who believes the mad red heifer conspiracy theories then I hope no one's listening to you!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
    I think that their recent actions are more likely to unify the country behind the Ayatollahs. Self harming once again, just as their approach in Gaza has been.
    I dont agree. Iran is a multi ethnic state with big splits between the Persians and the minorities. Minorities are something like 40+% of the population. The Persian majority is not a homogenous mass as many young folk dislike the theocracy hence why they fly Israeli flags and boo Palestinian ones.

    The Kurds arent happy, the Azeris should be in Azerbaijan and the Balochs have started shooting at the IRGC

    Iran is anything but stable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,844

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
    I think that their recent actions are more likely to unify the country behind the Ayatollahs. Self harming once again, just as their approach in Gaza has been.
    I dont agree. Iran is a multi ethnic state with big splits between the Persians and the minorities. Minorities are something like 40+% of the population. The Persian majority is not a homogenous mass as many young folk dislike the theocracy hence why they fly Israeli flags and boo Palestinian ones.

    The Kurds arent happy, the Azeris should be in Azerbaijan and the Balochs have started shooting at the IRGC

    Iran is anything but stable.
    I didn't say Iran was stable. What I said was that the illegal killing of Revolutionary Guards in a Consulate with diplomatic protection is not likely to add to that instability, quite the reverse. And this kind of behaviour is making it more and more difficult for Israel's friends, including the UK, to back them. Its self defeating and stupid.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
    I think that their recent actions are more likely to unify the country behind the Ayatollahs. Self harming once again, just as their approach in Gaza has been.
    I dont agree. Iran is a multi ethnic state with big splits between the Persians and the minorities. Minorities are something like 40+% of the population. The Persian majority is not a homogenous mass as many young folk dislike the theocracy hence why they fly Israeli flags and boo Palestinian ones.

    The Kurds arent happy, the Azeris should be in Azerbaijan and the Balochs have started shooting at the IRGC

    Iran is anything but stable.
    I didn't say Iran was stable. What I said was that the illegal killing of Revolutionary Guards in a Consulate with diplomatic protection is not likely to add to that instability, quite the reverse. And this kind of behaviour is making it more and more difficult for Israel's friends, including the UK, to back them. Its self defeating and stupid.
    The killing will upset the regimes supporters, I cant see too many others being that put out. As for why the UK should be upset, I suspect we will have a quiet satisfaction in security circles. Iran murders people on our own streets, supplies their proxies with munitions to attack our ships in the Red Sea and supplies autocratic Russia to attack Ukraine.

    Whats to be upset about, Iran is playing by its morality not ours.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Makes political sense for Bibi and strategic sense for Israel.

    A full scale war with Iran would be better sooner than later for Israel.

    Every year onwards brings Iran closer to having nuclear weapons.
    I agree about the political sense for Bibi. The rest I am not nearly so sure about.
    Look at it from Israel's POV:

    Iran is a country controlled by religious fundamentalists which is committed to destroying Israel and is developing nuclear weapons.

    How willing would you be to allow the risk that Iran is able to develop and then use against you those weapons ?

    Evens, 2/1, 5/1, 10/1, 100/1 ?

    Get it wrong and you don't just lose some money but possibly a million lives.
    But what can they do? Iran is not contiguous, its far too large to invade and conquer. The most they can do is bomb it and cause massive damage.

    This is unlikely to reduce the risks of hostile action in the future, quite the reverse. What Israel has been doing is murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. That is more likely to achieve their objectives and is less likely to generate widespread retaliation. But it might not be enough to keep Bibi out of jail.
    If they can destabilise the Iranian government sufficiently to destroy it in an internal revolution, that might be good enough. Whether they can, despite its deep unpopularity, is another question altogether.
    I think that their recent actions are more likely to unify the country behind the Ayatollahs. Self harming once again, just as their approach in Gaza has been.
    I dont agree. Iran is a multi ethnic state with big splits between the Persians and the minorities. Minorities are something like 40+% of the population. The Persian majority is not a homogenous mass as many young folk dislike the theocracy hence why they fly Israeli flags and boo Palestinian ones.

    The Kurds arent happy, the Azeris should be in Azerbaijan and the Balochs have started shooting at the IRGC

    Iran is anything but stable.
    I didn't say Iran was stable. What I said was that the illegal killing of Revolutionary Guards in a Consulate with diplomatic protection is not likely to add to that instability, quite the reverse. And this kind of behaviour is making it more and more difficult for Israel's friends, including the UK, to back them. Its self defeating and stupid.
    I don't think it is. The Ayatollahs outside maybe 20% of the population are now hated far more than ever Saddam Hussein was by the Iraqis and they didn't exactly rally behind him in 2003.

    In fact, Israeli strikes illegal or otherwise are more likely to make Netanyahu popular, which is ironic.

    Whether they will achieve the destabilisation of the regime is a different question My guess would be, not unless they're able to totally disorganise the Revolutionary Guard, which seems unlikely.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465

    I DON'T LIKE BAR CHARTS.

    I LOVE THEM!

    Is this like a pb.com version of Dreadlock Holiday?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    Sunak hits Trussite levels of support :lol:


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Whatever you think of the Iranian regime . Bombing the consulate in Damascus is unacceptable. One would think Israel wants to start a full scale war across the Middle East . Knowing that this will force the west to side with Israel . It also seems designed to cause as many problems for Biden . Netanyahu wants Trump in the WH .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099

    Sunak hits Trussite levels of support :lol:


    Yes.

    I note Truss lost support to Labour. Sunak has lost support to Reform UK.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Sunak hits Trussite levels of support :lol:


    The rise of the Fukkers looks relentless. Imagine what they could do if that had a proper politician leading them instead of a giant foreskin in a suit.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    nico679 said:

    Whatever you think of the Iranian regime . Bombing the consulate in Damascus is unacceptable. One would think Israel wants to start a full scale war across the Middle East . Knowing that this will force the west to side with Israel . It also seems designed to cause as many problems for Biden . Netanyahu wants Trump in the WH .

    When you’re a philandering man on trial for fraud, it’s nice to see other philandering men on trial for fraud doing well.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020
    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020

    Sunak hits Trussite levels of support :lol:


    Yes.

    I note Truss lost support to Labour. Sunak has lost support to Reform UK.
    To paraphrase AliG...

    Is it because he is brown?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020

    I DON'T LIKE BAR CHARTS.

    I LOVE THEM!

    Is this like a pb.com version of Dreadlock Holiday?
    Dreadlock Staycation.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,042

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:
    That would make her a good bet to be next Tory Leader.
    Yes, my thoughts too.
    Penny for PM or LotO: Even if the matelots do return her to Parliament, we need to factor in that the Conservative Party in the country will determine its next leader, and they gave us Liz Truss.
    And IDS. PM for LotO would be sensible - she has oomph and can say something to all the people not voting Conservative right now. I don't think she wins in 2028, but she might groom a successor who has a chance in 2032.

    But if the alternative is (say) Suella B, she loses.
    If she gets to the membership vote Kemi Badenoch would likely beat whoever is the rival candidate and become Leader of the Opposition, if Sunak loses the next general election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,042
    Looks like the Greens in Eastbourne are pitching themselves as the left wing alternative to the Thatcherite Orange Book former Cameron Cabinet Minister Ed Davey led LDs
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Please. No.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,196
    nico679 said:

    Whatever you think of the Iranian regime . Bombing the consulate in Damascus is unacceptable. One would think Israel wants to start a full scale war across the Middle East . Knowing that this will force the west to side with Israel . It also seems designed to cause as many problems for Biden . Netanyahu wants Trump in the WH .

    Yep. All the shittiest people in this world, politicians and civilians alike, are rooting for Donald Trump to win in November. Netanyahu is no exception to this iron clad rule.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,042
    edited April 7
    nico679 said:

    Whatever you think of the Iranian regime . Bombing the consulate in Damascus is unacceptable. One would think Israel wants to start a full scale war across the Middle East . Knowing that this will force the west to side with Israel . It also seems designed to cause as many problems for Biden . Netanyahu wants Trump in the WH .

    The West didn’t actively support Israel in either 1948 or the Yom Kippur War beyond US aid to Israel and I doubt it would now
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,042
    nico679 said:

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    The Tories vote rigging continues. They know there’s a strong majority against them so have changed the rules . They deserve to be destroyed at the GE .
    SV would actually be better for Tory PCC candidates this time as Reform UK candidates will likely get 10%+ under FPTP
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    The Tories vote rigging continues. They know there’s a strong majority against them so have changed the rules . They deserve to be destroyed at the GE .
    SV would actually be better for Tory PCC candidates this time as Reform UK candidates will likely get 10%+ under FPTP
    Are Reform putting up candidates across England and Wales ?

    The previous system was fair . You weren’t forced to put additional choices .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    The Tories vote rigging continues. They know there’s a strong majority against them so have changed the rules . They deserve to be destroyed at the GE .
    SV would actually be better for Tory PCC candidates this time as Reform UK candidates will likely get 10%+ under FPTP
    There aren’t very many Reform UK PCC candidates, however. We’ll see when the results come through how much the switch to FPTP may have effected the results. I expect not much overall.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited April 7
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    Or it looks smart only to silly people.

    I mean, I imagine you could replace OFSTED with AI (given they've mostly decided on what they'll see in advance of the inspection these days) and nobody would notice. Or a Treasury press release given it always runs 'We are putting C billion into D problem so why the f*** are people complaining?'

    But - that's not really a compliment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    The Tories vote rigging continues. They know there’s a strong majority against them so have changed the rules . They deserve to be destroyed at the GE .
    SV would actually be better for Tory PCC candidates this time as Reform UK candidates will likely get 10%+ under FPTP
    If the actual effect it the change is to kybosh (say) Ben Houchen, that would be both cosmic justice and very funny.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    I don't know this seat, but there is a logic to it that I like.

    In a safe seat (not sure these exist still for the Tories!) It is safe for the party that you really want, whether Green, Reform or Count Binface. That way you make your point and get whatever policy you like some attention, and perhaps even into a position to squeeze votes tactically down the line.

    In safe seats we are nor subject to the tactical squeeze.

    Minor parties make exactly the same play in my seat where Labour have a completely unassailable majority. It’s a free hit.

    Makes sense as a campaigning approach so long as the seat is actually safe from the Tories squeezing through.
    On the numbers presented here, though, it's not actually true in this seat. If we generously assume there are no other parties, and so the Greens start on 13%, then if the Greens take votes directly from the Lib Dems, the Tories can win the seat with 29% with a vote split of:

    LDM 28% (-14)
    CON 29% (nc)
    LAB 16% (nc)
    GRN 27% (+14)

    I've voted Green in the last five general elections, and I'm a big believer in voting for what you want. I figured that if I wanted Green policies I had to vote for them to show politicians they were important to this voter.

    But it does risk splitting the vote and so every voter has to decide what is most important to them.

    I think the evidence is that UKIP-inclined voters achieved more with their 12.6% of the vote in 2015, than Green-inclined voters have with voting tactically to elect Labour MPs and keep the Tories out.
    The starting point for the seat is Tories 49 LDs 41. It is absurd to say voting Green does not increase the chances of a Tory hold. (Yes of course LDs and others have done similar in the past).
    Of course everyone has done this sort of thing in the past, but if politicians will be so dishonest about such a thing is it any wonder that the voters have such a low opinion of them?

    This matters a lot more for politicians who are asking the voters to trust them with making large changes. Politicians who support the status quo are well-served by voters overwhelmed by cynicism, who believe that change isn't possible because lying, self-serving politicians can't be trusted.

    Went should the voters trust you to make radical changes in the society and economy if they can't even trust your election leaflets? "Why are the bastard voters so cynical?" they will later complain.

    You make it easy for someone like Trump to come along with his big lies about not losing an election, if you blur the line between truth and fiction beforehand. This sort of thing really pisses me off. People have to practise respecting the difference between true and false, and these sort of leaflets teach the voters to do the opposite.

    Politicians are training the public not to know the difference between the truth and a lie. It creates an environment in which disinformation operations from hostile states can flourish.

    Aaaaaaaaaaargh!
    Abolish FPTP and bar charts disappear, just like that.
    Yes. An end to stupid tactical voting arguments, and the negative campaigning of "only x can stop y", is one of the great benefits of ditching FPTP.

    Thirteen years since the lost AV referendum now.
    The AV referendum presaged the Brexit one.

    Referendums are often not settled on their merits but rather treated as a way to kick the government. First the AV one kicked Clegg, then the Brexit one kicked Cameron.
    Certainly in the UK.
    Less so in (eg) Switzerland - but we’re never going to be Switzerland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    A shame the original Tory didn't win again in 2016, because actually even though Salmon works for the Govestar he was an interesting and forceful candidate.

    Nobody has ever quite forgotten his wonderfully withering description of Carmarthenshire County Council as 'Wales' answer to a Sicilian cartel.'

    Judging by the fact several of its senior staff were subsequently arrested on various fraud charges he wasn't exactly flattering the Mafia either.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    Or it looks smart only to silly people.

    I mean, I imagine you could replace OFSTED with AI (given they've mostly decided on what they'll see in advance of the inspection these days) and nobody would notice. Or a Treasury press release given it always runs 'We are putting C billion into D problem so why the f*** are people complaining?'

    But - that's not really a compliment.
    I came across this description for an item on Ebay.

    Tell me it wasn't written by AI, then tell me you still think AI is coming for your job...

    Introducing a vintage Stanley 64-421 screwdriver with a unique Robertson style head that boasts a 1 point and is made in the USA. This high-quality hand tool is perfect for all your screw-driving needs. The brand is known for its durability and reliability, making it a must-have for any tool collection. The screwdriver features a custom bundle with no additional tools, making it a cost-effective option for small projects. Its model, 100 Plus, guarantees top-notch performance, ensuring that your projects are completed efficiently. The screwdriver is categorized under screwdrivers, hand tools, light equipment & tools, and business & industrial, making it a versatile tool for various applications.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
    In practice, if Sunak called an election, Tory MPs would defer any vote of confidence to after the election (and would then vote in accordance with the outcome). But a degree of derision from opposition parties would be inevitable - "the Tories are asking you for a vote of confidence in the PM, but decline to give one themselves". His least bad option may be to call a vote of confidence, win it by a large majority, and then call the GE immediately on the back of that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    Latest from Election Maps UK:

    With less than 4 weeks to go before England-wide elections, Labour hold a 20.4pt lead over the Conservatives, while Reform reach new heights...

    LAB: 43.8% (+10.9)
    CON: 23.4% (-21.3)
    RFM: 12.5% (+10.5)
    LDM: 9.4% (-2.4)
    GRN: 6.2% (+3.4)
    SNP: 2.9% (-1.1)

    Wales-wide too. Wales has PCCs and they’re all up for election. There are 4 PCCs in Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid Cymru.

    I suspect turnout will be pretty low.
    PCC elections are switching from SV to FPTP, as are mayoral ones. Last time around, out of 39 elections in England and Wales, there was only one where SV produced a different result to who got the most first preference votes. That was the Dyfed-Powys election, where the Conservative got 34.04% in the first round, ahead by less than half a percent of Plaid on 33.60%. However, Labour and LibDem transfers saw the Plaid candidate win 54.97% to 45.03%.
    The Tories vote rigging continues. They know there’s a strong majority against them so have changed the rules . They deserve to be destroyed at the GE .
    SV would actually be better for Tory PCC candidates this time as Reform UK candidates will likely get 10%+ under FPTP
    Are Reform putting up candidates across England and Wales ?

    The previous system was fair . You weren’t forced to put additional choices .
    Wikipedia only has candidates listed for 30/39 elections. Of those, only 2 have Reform UK candidates.

    Last time, I think they had 12 candidates, with their best performance being last with 5.1% of the vote in West Mercia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
    In practice, if Sunak called an election, Tory MPs would defer any vote of confidence to after the election (and would then vote in accordance with the outcome). But a degree of derision from opposition parties would be inevitable - "the Tories are asking you for a vote of confidence in the PM, but decline to give one themselves". His least bad option may be to call a vote of confidence, win it by a large majority, and then call the GE immediately on the back of that.
    He can't call a vote of confidence in himself. He'd have to get his allies to send letters in.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    As as AI skeptic -

    Amazon is abandoning their system because it had extremely poor implementation. The training, in particular was very poorly throughout. Tesco are just starting to trial their system, which seems much better thought out. https://www.tescoplc.com/tesco-to-introduce-new-scan-free-technology-on-self-service-tills-at-getgo-store/

    Fully autonomous vehicles are licensed and on the road https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/04/waymo-and-uber-eats-team-up-for-automated-food-deliveries/

    AI is over hyped. It will be an assistant, mostly, to automate chunks of work. In relatively few cases, will it be 100% automation.

    Churnslism is one the places where asking an “AI” to write the essays may well wipe out much of the human input.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
    It would look ridiculous for Sunak to go to the palace after that . He would look so weak and the opposition would have a field day . Better to win the VOC , come out fighting then call an election.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    Sunak could do that. I don’t think that would stop the confidence vote from happening, however.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    The first staycations were arguably in the eighteenth century, when revolutionary unrest in Europe made the Grand Tour a somewhat hazardous endeavour.
    And so the Lake District (most notably among several British regions) was discovered and developed as a tour destination.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Heathener said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    It will be interesting to see if the fad for camper vans drops off too. Not from anecdotal experience so far.
    I also think ‘van life,’ as in living in a vehicle, will continue to be a thing for as long accommodation is so expensive here.
    Isn't the point though that because the market for airbnb's have got saturated the cost of renting them out has fallen? If you search for an airbnb apartment on the south coast they rent out for about £65 a night out of season.
    I know that when searching for a shoulder season apartment in the south-west I was looking at over £2000 pcm. The Highlands you can easily double that. And we’re not talking particularly amazing accommodation either.

    I can rent something, and indeed have, for half that price in Norway. That’s Norway which is supposed to be really expensive [as @darkage mentions it’s really the alcohol which promotes this theory now & I don’t drink booze]

    If I went as a digital nomad to, say, Thailand or Malaysia I could rent a fabulous apartment for £500 pcm.
    Food and drink is expensive in Norway, but hotels and holiday rentals not particularly so
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992

    Churnslism is one the places where asking an “AI” to write the essays may well wipe out much of the human input.

    AI produces plausible rubbish.

    Similar to the claims for Brexit.

    Is it any wonder SeanT likes both?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    edited April 7
    Scott_xP said:

    Churnslism is one the places where asking an “AI” to write the essays may well wipe out much of the human input.

    AI produces plausible rubbish.

    Similar to the claims for Brexit.

    Is it any wonder SeanT likes both?
    I didn’t know he was bothered by plausibility. His contributions never suggested that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    MJW said:

    DavidL said:

    Very worrying signs coming out of Iran

    The attack on their diplomatic mission in Syria killing 7 of their people and 2 generals was a deliberately provocative act by Israel designed to get a response and, presumably widen the war in the hope that the Americans will then have to stay on board. The Israelis in general and Netanyahu in particular seem to be losing it.
    Eh? It was shortly after Iranian proxies attacked Eilat. While Hezbollah has been firing into northern Israel. Iran is already trying to do what it's always done - use its proxies to hit Israel and provoke while hiding behind the idea responding against them directly is escalation. I wouldn't buy the mullahs propaganda.

    The Israeli aim there is to deter Iran from further support for attacks via proxies by showing they will respond and there will be a cost, believing (hopefully correctly) that while Iran talks grandly of wiping Israel out and retaliation, it has no stomach for a war that risks collapsing their own regime. Which is not to say it might all go wrong - wider wars often start by miscalculation. But the hope would be deterrence, not escalation, and the fear that not responding to Iranian attacks would invite more in the belief it's a cost free way to further undermine Israeli's security.

    The last thing the Israelis, even the ogreish Netanyahu, want while still mired in Gaza is a wider war on their northern and North Eastern border. They'd be badly stretched and while the US can provide cover, it would be the IDF who'd have to conduct a second incredibly difficult ground operation - possibly more so militarily than Gaza - albeit with fewer civilians in harm's way.
    Reportedly it was primarily directly targeted at taking out Brig Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who coordinated and organised Iran’s dealings with Hezbollah, and was extremely effective in the role.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/02/mohammad-reza-zahedi-who-was-the-iranian-commander-killed-in-an-israeli-strike-in-syria

    Whether it was intended to spark a wider conflict, or just greatly disrupt their operations, is a matter of conjecture. The assassination of his predecessor was probably more about the latter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Please. No.
    Why, are you friends with his editor ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    It is bad enough that a word as horrible as staycation is even used, but the fact that it is used incorrectly is an unforgiveable crime against language, indeed an assault on civilisation itself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    The failure to agree to supply F16s much earlier in the conflict has cost a lot of Ukrainian lives, both at the front, and in cities near the front which are now being given the Aleppo treatment.

    The Russian air force is stepping up its use of Soviet-era weapons that have been retrofitted for 21st-century warfare and are pounding Ukrainian forces, pulverising towns and giving Moscow an advantage on the battlefield.

    My piece for @FT on the Russian "glide bombs" targeting Ukrainian towns and troops positions on the frontline:

    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1776878151517307338

    The line that modern(ish) fighters - and their long range anti aircraft missiles - were irrelevant to Ukraine’s needs (see, for example, DuraAce) was, I think, nonsense.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
    It would look ridiculous for Sunak to go to the palace after that . He would look so weak and the opposition would have a field day . Better to win the VOC , come out fighting then call an election.

    Exactly. He takes on the VoC threatening to go to the palace if he loses that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Is this just bullshit, or could it be true ?

    Tory rebels allege that members of the 1922 Committee have been promised peerages to "prop up" Rishi Sunak
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1776671093568233569

    (Reported by the Telegraph, so who knows ?)
  • Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    Amazon's 'just walk out' wasn't even AI, apparently it was a lot of Indian employees checking what you bought!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    Well, I've got to go work on writing a research proposal on AI. Toodaloo!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    What seems like nine months of solid rain concentrates the holidaymaker's mind, even if our summers have been too hot as well. Also, there are midges in the Highlands.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMLona9oelM
    There are midges in the Lowlands too. Got bitten early this month.

    But it's usually only really the summer that is the bad season.

    I'm wondering how it will be this year with the mild winter, though.

    This will be useful

    https://www.smidgeup.com/midge-forecast/

    And not for delicate folk

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-66532082
    And just to cheer us up some more about the weird weather, I find this on the Graun:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/apr/07/id-never-been-bitten-by-a-tick-before-why-the-little-blood-sucking-pest-is-getting-us-into-a-panic

    Tick-borne Lyme disease aka borreliosis is on the up.

    At least you don't catch anything from a Highland midge.
    Yet.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    edited April 7
    Nigelb said:

    Is this just bullshit, or could it be true ?

    Tory rebels allege that members of the 1922 Committee have been promised peerages to "prop up" Rishi Sunak
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1776671093568233569

    (Reported by the Telegraph, so who knows ?)

    Pretty much every Tory MP gets a peerage or knighthood nowadays, so that bauble is losing value.

    Would be a fun time for Sir Keir Starmer to threaten to return his if this kind of nonsense continues.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    if Sunak loses the next general election

    You mean if Sunak is still leader of the party at the time the election is called...
    If it's announced by Graham Brady that he's received the required number of signatures to force a vote of confidence in Sunak's leadership, is there anything to stop Sunak going to the palace that day or the next morning to force a GE?

    And if Sunak quietly lets it be known that that is what he would do, would Conservative MPs even dare to call his bluff?
    There has been some debate on that topic. I am not certain anyone knows the answer, definitively.
    In practice, if Sunak called an election, Tory MPs would defer any vote of confidence to after the election (and would then vote in accordance with the outcome). But a degree of derision from opposition parties would be inevitable - "the Tories are asking you for a vote of confidence in the PM, but decline to give one themselves". His least bad option may be to call a vote of confidence, win it by a large majority, and then call the GE immediately on the back of that.
    I agree that forcing a confideence vote himself might be a viable option for Sunak, but I doubt if he would dare to take such a radical step.

    I think though that with the power to call a GE, Sunak does have some leverage over Conservative MPs in so far as they think he might well exercise it if there were another concerted move against him and Sunak felt he were likely to lose a VONC. Sunak would basically be saying to them something along the lines of "if you dare to try to take me down, then you might well be able to do so but instead of giving you the chance I'll instea make sure that I take many more of you with me". Those Conservative MPs who are still clinging to hopes of retaining their seats at a GE would then have to seriously consider that their chances would be even worse if they ended up contesting a GE in the worst possible circumstances.

    It's a bit as if Sunak and his opponents both have a nuclear weapon, and Sunak is threatening Mutally Assured Destruction to prevent a nuclear war.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    What seems like nine months of solid rain concentrates the holidaymaker's mind, even if our summers have been too hot as well. Also, there are midges in the Highlands.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMLona9oelM
    There are midges in the Lowlands too. Got bitten early this month.

    But it's usually only really the summer that is the bad season.

    I'm wondering how it will be this year with the mild winter, though.

    This will be useful

    https://www.smidgeup.com/midge-forecast/

    And not for delicate folk

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-66532082
    And just to cheer us up some more about the weird weather, I find this on the Graun:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2024/apr/07/id-never-been-bitten-by-a-tick-before-why-the-little-blood-sucking-pest-is-getting-us-into-a-panic

    Tick-borne Lyme disease aka borreliosis is on the up.

    At least you don't catch anything from a Highland midge.
    Yet.
    At least the GPs are now aware of it. Some horrible stories out of the conservation/farming/hillwalking communities, and a classmate at school had a 18 month recovery from it.

    Why it's important to have a loving partner to check all the nooks and crannies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,094
    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Interesting. I wonder when PB will publish an article that uses AI. The possibilities are endless.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Interesting. I wonder when PB will publish an article that uses AI. The possibilities are endless.
    What? You don't think that TSE actually writes all this guff himself, do you?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303

    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    Amazon's 'just walk out' wasn't even AI, apparently it was a lot of Indian employees checking what you bought!
    No, it wasn’t. The Indian employees were supposed to be training the system, by correcting the AI result.

    Due to poor design, implementation and operation, the system didn’t get better at IDing what was bought, so the number of interventions by employees stayed high.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 7
    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Is there a drug one might take that would make statements such as the following seem hilarious?

    "in my experience, these AI chatbots respond better if you are polite, an uncanny fact which is worthy of scrutiny in itself."

    Using an AI translator to render this into Khalkha Mongolian and then back into English, I got:

    "It's always best to be very stroky towards your chatbottom, because otherwise it can become right bitchy, a topic extremely worthy of in-depth research."
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 7

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Also on that Observer Portsmouth link, I noticed this:

    'Is the British staycation boom over? Short-term holiday rentals experienced a surge in recent years, especially during the pandemic, when Britons stayed at home in the UK, leading to a spike in rates.

    However, holiday-let owners across the UK are reporting a significant fall in bookings so far this year as the sector feels the effects of the cost of living crisis, poor weather and an increasingly saturated market.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/07/britains-staycation-boom-may-be-over-as-bookings-dry-up

    The main reason imho that Britain’s staycation is over is that this country is stupidly expensive. I’m about to take a couple of months out to finish a book and I looked at somewhere in the UK to base myself. It would cost me literally at least twice the rental on airbnb compared to other European countries, including one (Norway) which is notorious for being pricey. If I wanted to park myself in the Scottish Highlands, which was tempting, it would be 3x or even 4x the cost of staying in an equally stunning property in Scandinavia.

    My brother is about to spend four nights in the Wye valley. For the same price as he’s paying for the room only he could have a week’s half-board in mainland Europe including the flights.

    From trains to accommodation, Britain has become a rip-off.

    A staycation has trivial costs as it involves staying at your own home.

    But the UK has become a country where having a holiday in your own country no longer counts as having a holiday.
    I kind-of think those banging this drum are showing their age if I may say.

    The world shrank. People travel globally now. Over 50% of Brits will go abroad this year, with over 60% of younger Brits:
    https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/half-of-britons-plan-to-travel-abroad-this-year-despite-rising-holiday-cost-concerns-research-reveals

    A holiday in the UK = staying at home = staycation.
    No, a staycation is a specific thing where you have time off work but stay at your own home.

    Spending the time relaxing, catching up on jobs, pottering about the garden, visiting local museums/parks/restaurants, going on a day trip or two. All likely at minimal cost and stress.

    Whereas a holiday is a period of time during which you relax and enjoy yourself away from home - Collins definition.

    If someone had two weeks in Devon, a week in Norfolk and a week in the Lake district but claimed not to have had a holiday that year they would be as ridiculous as they were self-entitled.
    Your cause is noble but I fear the battle for staycation's meaning is lost.
    It is bad enough that a word as horrible as staycation is even used, but the fact that it is used incorrectly is an unforgiveable crime against language, indeed an assault on civilisation itself.
    Almost certainly the classification of holidaying in Britain as "staying at home" has been spread by the cheap flights, bucketshops, and drink-yourself-stupid-where-it's-hot package holiday nexus. Probably by trade bodies. That's how a lot of the culture works.

    Do they poke fun at holidaying in Britain on the Archers, the same way they promote "gap years" to encourage youngsters to max out on debt?

    You can accomplish a lot with buzzphrases, e.g. "staycation", as Edward Bernays knew well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465

    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    As as AI skeptic -

    Amazon is abandoning their system because it had extremely poor implementation. The training, in particular was very poorly throughout. Tesco are just starting to trial their system, which seems much better thought out. https://www.tescoplc.com/tesco-to-introduce-new-scan-free-technology-on-self-service-tills-at-getgo-store/

    Fully autonomous vehicles are licensed and on the road https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/04/waymo-and-uber-eats-team-up-for-automated-food-deliveries/

    AI is over hyped. It will be an assistant, mostly, to automate chunks of work. In relatively few cases, will it be 100% automation.

    Churnslism is one the places where asking an “AI” to write the essays may well wipe out much of the human input.

    The more I use AI the shitter I think it is - except as a research/ideas tool.

    And people are learning to spot ChatGPT phrases a mile off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    Scott_xP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New article by former PB poster Sean Thomas on the subject of AI.

    "Sean Thomas
    The person who edited this will soon be redundant
    AI is now as good as a publishing professional"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-person-who-edited-this-will-soon-be-redundant/

    Or try the FT instead

    @henrymance

    ChatGPT hallucinates. Self-driving cars crash. Amazon is abandonning its 'just walk out' checkouts.

    What if AI is overhyped?

    https://t.co/vgHyGf6lvn
    It's shit.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Scott_xP said:

    @REWearmouth

    Asked whether Rishi Sunak is exasperated by poll after poll showing the Tories are on course for defeat, Oliver Dowden says: “The PM is full of vim and vigour.”

    Presumably he’s going to scour the malcontents from his party?
This discussion has been closed.