Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
I meant, proper official war. As opposed to a private one. Even if QE got her cut.
Mind, it happened again in 1804, with the capture of the Spanish treasure fleet. The RN matelots were very pissed off when HM KGIII took the lot and gave them a tip instead of proper prize money - the point being that there was no war, which was a bit hypocritical of HMG. But it makes the point.
Their ships were paid for by the Government. Drake's were not. Moreover, the law had changed somewhat in the intervening 220 years.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
PS: pirates most certainly shared their plunder. Admittedly between themselves.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
PS: pirates most certainly shared their plunder. Admittedly between themselves.
So what you're saying is, Sir Norfolk and I should stop talking about Drake as a privateer and instead just call Liz I a pirate?
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
It's a central feature of the 3-dy Pirate Festival in Brixham. Which is a big thing in the town.
Well, every day is a school day. Yesterday I got an email from McAfee saying that a VPN was included in my subscription. So I switched the VPN on, and found I couldn't access comments here. I have now switched the VPN off.
The worst morons are the ‘they’re all as bad as each other, btw I’m not responsible for any consequences of my vote’ morons. See also Bruce Dickinson and Roger Daltrey.
The British economy is largely driven by Iron Maiden, along with some of Bruce's other side-hustles. He can do pretty much what he likes.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
It's a central feature of the 3-dy Pirate Festival in Brixham. Which is a big thing in the town.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
I think some billionaire or other is building a 1:1 scale operational replica of the Titanic. Perhaps it can be rented out for full fat Brexit metaphors.
So as a Brexit analogy it arrives complete with holed hull?
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
PS: pirates most certainly shared their plunder. Admittedly between themselves.
So what you're saying is, Sir Norfolk and I should stop talking about Drake as a privateer and instead just call Liz I a pirate?
Not disagreeing that Drake was a privateer. Only that he was one only some of the time. It's what happened outside the declarations of war that was, erm, dodgy. And if HMtQ took her cut ... it would have been what Marie Stuart's lawyers called reset, not sure what the English equivalent is.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
PS: pirates most certainly shared their plunder. Admittedly between themselves.
So what you're saying is, Sir Norfolk and I should stop talking about Drake as a privateer and instead just call Liz I a pirate?
Not disagreeing that Drake was a privateer. Only that he was one only some of the time. It's what happened outside the declarations of war that was, erm, dodgy. And if HMtQ took her cut ... it would have been what Marie Stuart's lawyers called reset, not sure what the English equivalent is.
The equivalent in England and Wales is handling stolen goods, often known by its pre-1968 name of receiving stolen goods.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
That's all very true but doesn't answer my question. Do you have any polling for the Presidency?
If Texas - the state which cares above all others about Mexican immigration - is showing positive signs for the blue squad over abortion that suggests Republicans are guilty of a crass error of judgement in picking their campaigning issues, if nothing worse.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
Unintended consequences. Possessing small vials of nitrous oxide was made illegal last November following a moral panic over littering and now cylinders of the pain-killing gas are being nicked from hospitals and ambulances.
So not only making life difficult for various hobbyists who used the canisters, but endangering lives by looting of emergency service supplies.
Note to governments, stop banning things and look to deal with the consequences of abuse instead.
The thesis that Israel is trying to provoke a much wider war will be proven beyond doubt (and very fast) if the red heifer is allowed to be slaughtered, either before the end of Ramadan or after.
The UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU was the most dramatic political and economic decision for generations. But as the country prepares for a general election, it is no longer on the political agenda. This film examines why no political party wants to talk about it, why Brexit remains the elephant in the room for British business and how it could actually work better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7rDYo3FR4
Half an hour of Brexit from the Financial Times, uploaded within the last hour as if in response to this thread.
Message: It is essential to UK future to discuss and plan for developing and sorting our post Brexit relation with the EU.
It is essential to winning an election to say nothing about Brexit and the EU. (Or anything else).
No-one with any voice over the matter will talk to us.
Sotto voce conclusions (Martin Wolf): We hope Labour do stuff they won't talk about now. And All this suggests democracy doesn't work.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
There are also lots of women in Texas.
Don't take 'em for granted. That's the way the girls are from Texas...
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
I believe, by and large, that to be a fair analysis. However with the alignment of two previous PMs to Trump central and the current one sitting on the fence and leaning towards a Trump endorsement are you sure about "not that many"?
The UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU was the most dramatic political and economic decision for generations. But as the country prepares for a general election, it is no longer on the political agenda. This film examines why no political party wants to talk about it, why Brexit remains the elephant in the room for British business and how it could actually work better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7rDYo3FR4
Half an hour of Brexit from the Financial Times, uploaded within the last hour as if in response to this thread.
Message: It is essential to UK future to discuss and plan for developing and sorting our post Brexit relation with the EU.
It is essential to winning an election to say nothing about Brexit and the EU. (Or anything else).
No-one with any voice over the matter will talk to us.
Sotto voce conclusions (Martin Wolf): We hope Labour do stuff they won't talk about now. And All this suggests democracy doesn't work.
The EU is also in on the act, scarcely mentioning Brexit at all. Partly because they’ve moved on, but partly because the commission and most member states are keen on a mini-reset with the UK without scaring the horses.
Though this little bit of gentle trolling at the Eurotunnel this week made me chuckle:
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
How many of the wives and daughters of "hard-line evangelical men "are going, in the privacy of the ballot, to vote for candidates who are relatively liberal on abortion?
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
I believe, by and large, that to be a fair analysis. However with the alignment of two previous PMs to Trump central and the current one sitting on the fence and leaning towards a Trump endorsement are you sure about "not that many"?
Even Starmer and Lammy have said they will have to work with Trump if he becomes POTUS again and they win the next UK GE. You can't ignore the most powerful man in the world even if you dislike them.
Both Sunak and Starmer remain committed to NATO however
Scottish Plod complaining they do not have extra money or resource to deal with this, on the news, this morning.
The point of JK's tweet was to render the hate crime law unusable. It was a deliberate provocation - "do me if you dare". Effectively it is helping to protect free speech in Natland. I imagine the legislation will go the same way as all the other incompetently drafted laws such as gender reform. Yousaf really has gone down a rabbit hole by pursuing Sturgeon's "progressive" political strategy including the alliance witb the Greens. A total fiasco.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
There are also lots of women in Texas.
Some of whom will be evangelical or pro life Roman Catholic (including a few Hispanic women in the latter group)
Unintended consequences. Possessing small vials of nitrous oxide was made illegal last November following a moral panic over littering and now cylinders of the pain-killing gas are being nicked from hospitals and ambulances.
So not only making life difficult for various hobbyists who used the canisters, but endangering lives by looting of emergency service supplies.
Note to governments, stop banning things and look to deal with the consequences of abuse instead.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
It could be that more voters than before see the Tories as a bunch of crooks not to be trusted on anything involving big contracts, or that with the pendulum swung against the Tories some voters have had a bellyful of their constant jingoism and "let's bomb Russia". Call it a "just fucking shut up about defence" response.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
Actually, you could. Because as a privateer, what you do could be considered an act of war.
It was one of the things that pissed off the Spanish.
Also, pirates did not share their plunder.
PS: pirates most certainly shared their plunder. Admittedly between themselves.
They also would share plunder with the locals - selling them stuff at low low prices. Also gifts to governmental types.
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
There are also lots of women in Texas.
Some of whom will be evangelical or pro life Roman Catholic (including a few Hispanic women in the latter group)
See my post up thread about the privacy of the ballot box!
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
I believe, by and large, that to be a fair analysis. However with the alignment of two previous PMs to Trump central and the current one sitting on the fence and leaning towards a Trump endorsement are you sure about "not that many"?
Even Starmer and Lammy have said they will have to work with Trump if he becomes POTUS again and they win the next UK GE. You can't ignore the most powerful man in the world even if you dislike them.
Both Sunak and Starmer remain committed to NATO however
Which is strange that wannabe PMs like Johnson, Truss and Braverman are comfortable burning bridges with Biden, should he prevail.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How comfortable are you with key Tories including those in Government leaning heavily Trumpwards?
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
I'm not. I've said they are twats.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
I believe, by and large, that to be a fair analysis. However with the alignment of two previous PMs to Trump central and the current one sitting on the fence and leaning towards a Trump endorsement are you sure about "not that many"?
Even Starmer and Lammy have said they will have to work with Trump if he becomes POTUS again and they win the next UK GE. You can't ignore the most powerful man in the world even if you dislike them.
Both Sunak and Starmer remain committed to NATO however
Which is strange that wannabe PMs like Johnson, Truss and Braverman are comfortable burning bridges with Biden, should he prevail.
On what grounds? Johnson worked perfectly well with Biden when he was PM and Biden was President.
Lammy has openly said he isn't a fan of Trump but also if he wins he and Starmer would have to work with him as POTUS.
In fact the closest relationship with a Republican President in the last few decades (since Thatcher and Reagan and Major and Bush 41) with a UK PM was probably between Labour PM Blair and GOP President Bush. Indeed in 2004 some Tories even preferred Kerry
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
That's all very true but doesn't answer my question. Do you have any polling for the Presidency?
If Texas - the state which cares above all others about Mexican immigration - is showing positive signs for the blue squad over abortion that suggests Republicans are guilty of a crass error of judgement in picking their campaigning issues, if nothing worse.
There are effectively no more Republicans in this upcoming elections. It is as if the Tories were taken over completely by a slate of the craziest fruitcake wing of UKIP. These are the only candidates on offer in November - those who have bent the knee to Trump.
Texas might also be getting the message that Trump told his MAGA troops in Congress to block an agreed bipartisan border deal - for his own needs to keep immigration a party divide.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
Well, every day is a school day. Yesterday I got an email from McAfee saying that a VPN was included in my subscription. So I switched the VPN on, and found I couldn't access comments here. I have now switched the VPN off.
McAfee trying to spare you from PB! Think of your improved productivity without us.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, France, Germany and Ireland have
What they had in Alabama was the (Republican-filled) Supreme Court there deciding that a cluster of cells in an IVF clinic was a baby - stopping the whole IVF process for thousands of couples.
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, France, Germany and Ireland have
What they had in Alabama was the (Republican-filled) Supreme Court there deciding that a cluster of cells in an IVF clinic was a baby - stopping the whole IVF process for thousands of couples.
In most US states however the abortion time limit is still higher than it is in most European nations (only in most of the deep South, the border states, Indiana, the Dakotas and Idaho has abortion really come close to being banned and that is because they overwhelmingly elect pro life Republican governors and state legislatures)
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
It's a central feature of the 3-dy Pirate Festival in Brixham. Which is a big thing in the town.
It’s also a mistake for another reason. Tony Blair was hated by at least the same amount, Neil Kinnock likewise. It’s well known that the Left loathe new Labour.
All it does is cement the idea that Starmer’s Labour are in the centre ground and therefore to be trusted by most sensible British people.
I think the electoral effect of floating voter sensitivity to Labour hard left is minuscule by now. Keir has already shot that fox. In fact he could probably pick up some ratings by promising a few more leftish things.
Same quasi-equilibrium is now observable in the Tory vote too. I don’t think there’s much further voter leakage to come from fear of the Tory hard right, those voters have left already, which explains their focus on Reform talking points.
I'm not convinced that Keir *has* shot that fox. He might have put it under a temporarily soundproof barrel.
The Socialist Campaign Group membership is still 31 or 35 if you include suspendees. In 2015 that was under 10.
There are plenty of well-ensconced nutters (perhaps that should be "headbangers"). I think one determinant may be the balance between bees in bonnets and wider loyalty.
And I have no idea of the mix of current candidates who may be elected in any putative landslide.
I certainly don’t think he has shot that fox in terms of changing them but that wasn’t the point of the source, which was about this coming election.
The hard Left hate, and will apparently always hate, any centrist and successful Labour leader. There are plenty of them who would rather the tories win than a Blair-Starmer.
When PM Starmer falters they will be straight in there baying for his blood. I doubt they will succeed for 1 or maybe 2 elections by which time he’ll be ready to retire anyway.
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
This is ridiculously unfair to Devon's finest (well, third finest after Sir Walter Raleigh and Neil Parish). He was, of course, a privateer rather than a buccaneer, meaning he did basically the same but had a letter from the Queen saying it was fine.
Can't be a privateer if there's no war. Just piracy otherwise, as the Spanish rightly complained.
We were just plundering the plunderers. Before we became full scale plunderers ourselves.
I'm not shedding any tears for the Spanish back then.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
Also not helped by his being an enormous a-hole who is unloved by his own side.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
Abortion will (literally) be in the ballot in Florida after yesterday's state Supreme Court ruling. In the meantime a ban after 6weeks (which is most abortions) will be introduced.
Unintended consequences. Possessing small vials of nitrous oxide was made illegal last November following a moral panic over littering and now cylinders of the pain-killing gas are being nicked from hospitals and ambulances.
"Hippy crack" lol. This is the stuff they give to women in labour that induces a mild and very temporary sense of euphoria... I know it's the Daily Mail so expecting any degree of common sense is pointless, but even by their deranged standards on these issues this seems a pretty stupid description of an essentially harmless substance. Also, I've noticed that as a result of the ban there are no longer small vials littering the streets... they've been replaced by much larger containers. Another stunning victory for the war on drugs!
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
No journalists are allowed in Gaza, so they get to mark their own handiwork.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
And until the last two elections I was a lifelong Tory voter from a family of lifelong Tory voters. Now I wouldn’t even consider voting for this bunch of foreigner hating, freedom restricting right-wing zealots.
Between me and Mortimer is the heart of the Tory problem.
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
Hip, hip, hooray for British enterprise!
Got enough snow? We got a decent couple of falls the last 2 nights, freshened things up.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
It's a central feature of the 3-dy Pirate Festival in Brixham. Which is a big thing in the town.
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
Hip, hip, hooray for British enterprise!
Got enough snow? We got a decent couple of falls the last 2 nights, freshened things up.
It was very slushy Sunday but a decent dump of snow yesterday and today make it perfect.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
Abortion will (literally) be in the ballot in Florida after yesterday's state Supreme Court ruling. In the meantime a ban after 6weeks (which is most abortions) will be introduced.
Florida currently only bans abortion after 15 weeks and even the proposed 6 week ban would still allow abortion in the case of rape or life of the mother beyond that and still be less restrictive than the abortion law in Poland for instance
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
No journalists are allowed in Gaza, so they get to mark their own handiwork.
The journalists mark their own handiwork? Good god? Aren’t there any reputable terrorists around to do that?
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
And until the last two elections I was a lifelong Tory voter from a family of lifelong Tory voters. Now I wouldn’t even consider voting for this bunch of foreigner hating, freedom restricting right-wing zealots.
Between me and Mortimer is the heart of the Tory problem.
That looks like an unbridgeable chasm from where I am standing.
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
Hip, hip, hooray for British enterprise!
Which resort? My daughter is chalet hosting and one of the guests sadly died yesterday (heart attack in the chalet). Traumatic for all. Grandchildren in pieces.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
I'd imagine several kilos of warhead going off inside the vehicle and blowing its occupants to bits might provide a bit of overpressure.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Maybe if your party's priority was housing, homelessness, improved public services, health, education, business, manufacturing, international trade, genuine economic growth and defence you wouldn't be 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Many of the hereditary peers are the sons and grandsons of relatively late creations. Descendants of Norman gang-leaders are quite rare these days.
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
I'd imagine several kilos of warhead going off inside the vehicle and blowing its occupants to bits might provide a bit of overpressure.
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
Hip, hip, hooray for British enterprise!
Which resort? My daughter is chalet hosting and one of the guests sadly died yesterday (heart attack in the chalet). Traumatic for all. Grandchildren in pieces.
La Plagne and I'm still standing. The rarified atmosphere at 2000m is not ideal for this old man mind.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Maybe if your party's priority was housing, homelessness, improved public services, health, education, business, manufacturing, international trade, genuine economic growth and defence you wouldn't be 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.
Unemployment is lower than inherited from Labour, the economy has been growing etc. However after ten years voters normally vote for change and there is the global cost of living and interest rates problem a Labour government would have to deal with.
None of that however changes the fact defending hereditary peers is a Tory principle as much as increased state intervention in the economy is a Labour principle it largely is down to them to defend
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
No journalists are allowed in Gaza, so they get to mark their own handiwork.
The journalists mark their own handiwork? Good god? Aren’t there any reputable terrorists around to do that?
I suppose I should have been clearer that I meant the IDF. Israel controls most of Gaza; what goes down there is now largely their responsibility.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
Abortion will (literally) be in the ballot in Florida after yesterday's state Supreme Court ruling. In the meantime a ban after 6weeks (which is most abortions) will be introduced.
Florida currently only bans abortion after 15 weeks and even the proposed 6 week ban would still allow abortion in the case of rape or life of the mother beyond that and still be less restrictive than the abortion law in Poland for instance
The abortion law in Poland is very restrictive and a point of extensive protest.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
Which as I said would still be less restrictive than Poland's abortion law for instance
Since when was that a model for the US ?
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/florida-abortion-desantis-trump-00150024 ...Once broadly available, Florida now has a 15-week ban that has no exceptions for rape and incest. The six-week ban is considered by opponents to be nearly an all-out ban given that most women don’t know they’re pregnant that early on. The ban will also affect patients who travel to Florida from across the Southeast, where abortion is similarly outlawed...
SFAICS there is not yet confirmation of the source of the strike on aid workers. Interestingly the Guardian is reporting in a way that leaves it open, the BBC is not - according to them it's an Israeli strike.
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
As previously posted an IDF sock puppet acount is saying it was a Hamas 'side bomb', whatever the fck that is. Cunning chaps those Hamas lads, these side bombs apparently jump up and then penetrate the roofs of vehicles..
“Off Route Mines” are a common form of IED, these days. As well as specifically designed military weapons which do the same thing.
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
No journalists are allowed in Gaza, so they get to mark their own handiwork.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Maybe if your party's priority was housing, homelessness, improved public services, health, education, business, manufacturing, international trade, genuine economic growth and defence you wouldn't be 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.
Unemployment is lower than inherited from Labour, the economy has been growing etc. However after ten years voters normally vote for change and there is the global cost of living and interest rates problem a Labour government would have to deal with.
None of that however changes the fact defending hereditary peers is a Tory principle as much as increased state intervention in the economy is a Labour principle it largely is down to them to defend
I think you might be onto a winner with your "the economy has been growing etc" line.
Up is down, in is out, left is right, cats and dogs living together - total chaos.
I know the game is up for brexit when I see these headlines in the telegraph
"At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. If, as a nation, we are unwilling to maximally benefit from Brexit by leveraging our freedom, then we should decisively minimise our losses and re-enter the security of the EU fold."
Not to get all Godwiny but more than a whiff of AH ranting about the German people being too weak to deserve the manifest blessings of the 1000 year Reich.
Did you notice the 3-D metaphor for "buccaneering* Britain" stuck in the mudflats in some Brexit-voting port? I think someone at the DT has a sense of irony.
Actually, just checked. It was Brixham, in Torbay, so yes, voting out. And as for buccaneering, Wiki: 'A replica of Golden Hind has been permanently moored in the harbour of the sea port of Brixham in Devon (GB-TOB 50°23′48″N 3°30′46″W) since 1963 following its use in the TV series Sir Francis Drake, which was filmed in and around the bays of Torbay and Dartmouth. The replica ship used in the TV series cost the film studio £25,000 to construct had no rear gallery or gun deck and was a converted fishing boat.[17] The ship sank in heavy seas whilst under tow in 1987 to Dartmouth for restoration and could not be saved. A second replica was completed in 1988 and stands in the harbour being visited by thousands of visitors annually. The current vessel based on a steel barge is not full size and could never sail.'
*For which read mass murdering, enslaving and pillaging, given that 'buccaneer' is an euphemism for pirate used by those who don't know their history and won't restrict it to the more accurate term of sort of messing around and doing this and that in the Caribbean.
It's a central feature of the 3-dy Pirate Festival in Brixham. Which is a big thing in the town.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
Some wins for Reform UK would be good for their momentum and failing to win anything would be a lost opportunity, but I think the main reason for Reform’s momentum is nothing they’re doing, but rather the unpopularity of the Conservative Party. While the Tories remain unpopular, Reform will continue to poll well.
CCHQ arguments over NEV will ring hollow in the face of large numbers of lost seats.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
Some wins for Reform UK would be good for their momentum and failing to win anything would be a lost opportunity, but I think the main reason for Reform’s momentum is nothing they’re doing, but rather the unpopularity of the Conservative Party. While the Tories remain unpopular, Reform will continue to poll well.
CCHQ arguments over NEV will ring hollow in the face of large numbers of lost seats.
Seats lost will also be substantially less than last year, given the number of Tory seats up is in total less than the number of Tory seats they lost last year
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Maybe if your party's priority was housing, homelessness, improved public services, health, education, business, manufacturing, international trade, genuine economic growth and defence you wouldn't be 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.
Unemployment is lower than inherited from Labour, the economy has been growing etc. However after ten years voters normally vote for change and there is the global cost of living and interest rates problem a Labour government would have to deal with.
None of that however changes the fact defending hereditary peers is a Tory principle as much as increased state intervention in the economy is a Labour principle it largely is down to them to defend
I think you might be onto a winner with your "the economy has been growing etc" line.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
Genuine question - why do you think the current government is Blairite?
There is no attempt to take people out of poverty. No investment in public services, not even by enabling the private sector to take a greater role. No social reform. Poor relations with Europe rather than co-operation. On all these Blair was quite timid and leaning slightly right anyway. The only thing I see in common is a tendency to authoritarian centralising, hardly something that right wing parties rail against in my experience.
The UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU was the most dramatic political and economic decision for generations. But as the country prepares for a general election, it is no longer on the political agenda. This film examines why no political party wants to talk about it, why Brexit remains the elephant in the room for British business and how it could actually work better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7rDYo3FR4
Half an hour of Brexit from the Financial Times, uploaded within the last hour as if in response to this thread.
Message: It is essential to UK future to discuss and plan for developing and sorting our post Brexit relation with the EU.
It is essential to winning an election to say nothing about Brexit and the EU. (Or anything else).
No-one with any voice over the matter will talk to us.
Sotto voce conclusions (Martin Wolf): We hope Labour do stuff they won't talk about now. And All this suggests democracy doesn't work.
Mostly boneheads. They won't mention it (by They, I mean Labour and the Conservatives - maybe the LibDems will, don't know).
I voted Leave, and would happily stay out the EU still, but 24th February 2022 changed everything for me. I think rejoining EFTA, maybe even EEA, would show the EU we are serious about being close and friendly to the EU (and supporting them in NATO) without the need to rejoin the EU.
Labour should put forward a proposal to rejoin EFTA [1], perhaps with a referendum, for their manifesto - but they won't.
[1] The problem with 'rejoining' EFTA is Reform will frame it as rejoining the EU. We've left both EFTA and the EU, so any attempt to go back into either will be framed as 'rejoin' (because it is). So Reform will shout we're rejoining the EU by the back door and that could lead to a defeat in a poll.
People probably know better than I, but I'm not wrong in saying no member of EFTA is just in EFTA are they? Four members - three of them are also members of the EEA, and the Swiss have so many side deals with the EU its referred to as EFTA+ anyway? If the UK rejoined EFTA (only) would this help our trading relationship with the EU at all? Or would more side deals (or joining EEA) be needed?
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
In Florida, even the 15 week time limit they now have with DeSantis is actually still higher than the 12 week abortion time limit Italy, Germany and Ireland have
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Why would anyone who isn't an hereditary peer or the heir to a peerage vote for the retention of hereditary peerages? Yourself notwithstanding.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Many hereditaries are more committed to their role in the Lords than some of the donor life peers who get a position there.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
Maybe if your party's priority was housing, homelessness, improved public services, health, education, business, manufacturing, international trade, genuine economic growth and defence you wouldn't be 15 to 20 points behind in the polls.
Unemployment is lower than inherited from Labour, the economy has been growing etc. However after ten years voters normally vote for change and there is the global cost of living and interest rates problem a Labour government would have to deal with.
None of that however changes the fact defending hereditary peers is a Tory principle as much as increased state intervention in the economy is a Labour principle it largely is down to them to defend
I think you might be onto a winner with your "the economy has been growing etc" line.
Worked so well in 1997.
Genuine LOL. "Britain is booming" posted on the wall of a s***hole.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
Some wins for Reform UK would be good for their momentum and failing to win anything would be a lost opportunity, but I think the main reason for Reform’s momentum is nothing they’re doing, but rather the unpopularity of the Conservative Party. While the Tories remain unpopular, Reform will continue to poll well.
CCHQ arguments over NEV will ring hollow in the face of large numbers of lost seats.
Seats lost will also be substantially less than last year, given the number of Tory seats up is in total less than the number of Tory seats they lost last year
Losing lots of seats looks bad (and is bad). Going, “Actually, we lost fewer seats than we lost last year” isn’t going to cut through.
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
Trump will win Texas again even if he loses nationally again.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
Ted Cruz in Texas is in a real fight to retain his Senate seat - latest polling has him tied with his Democrat challenger. He is at 51% unfavourables with Independents.
Down to his absolutist stance on abortion.
2024 is supposed to be a very difficult set of elections for the Democrats to retain the Senate. Losing Texas wasn't supposed to be in the mix... But state protections for abortion are on the ballot - and are likely to be a major factor in turnout.
How does that read across to polling for the Presidency?
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
It is showing that abortion is utterly toxic for Republicans. We had the Special Election in a Red (and Trump) seat in Alabama where the issue delivered a 25% Democrat majority. Trump is claiming for the adulation of his MAGA base that he delivered the overthrow of Rowe vs Wade. In the wider population, however, that may be the single biggest factor in Trump's defeat in November.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
Abortion will (literally) be in the ballot in Florida after yesterday's state Supreme Court ruling. In the meantime a ban after 6weeks (which is most abortions) will be introduced.
Florida currently only bans abortion after 15 weeks and even the proposed 6 week ban would still allow abortion in the case of rape or life of the mother beyond that and still be less restrictive than the abortion law in Poland for instance
The abortion law in Poland is very restrictive and a point of extensive protest.
Increasing abortion restrictions in Western countries is very rare. And is a major vote mover/motivator.
Abortion rights will be front and centre in the campaign to November in the US.
Odd to represent a law about threatening or abusive behaviour with the intention of stirring up hatred as criminalising people "stating simple facts on biology".
Of course, Oscar Wilde told us "The truth is rarely pure and never simple". Perhaps it's comforting that Rishi Sunak can be relied on to be always simple.
If anything the local elections will reduce Reform momentum. They are likely to perform poorly in the London Mayor and Assembly elections and won't have enough candidates in the council elections to get anywhere near the Tories. They might do a bit better in the PCC elections but still not enough to win
I don't think most voters will notice. The press the morning after will not have headlines saying "Reform UK perform poorly". They'll all say "Conservative disaster".
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
Given current polls have the Tories on about 20-25%, even if they got the 26% NEV they got in last year's local elections, CCHQ would spin that as 'done better than the polls' and if Reform fail to gain any councils or PCC posts or Assembly seats then their momentum stalls
CCHQ spin isn't even effective on once loyal backbenchers now.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
And until the last two elections I was a lifelong Tory voter from a family of lifelong Tory voters. Now I wouldn’t even consider voting for this bunch of foreigner hating, freedom restricting right-wing zealots.
Between me and Mortimer is the heart of the Tory problem.
That looks like an unbridgeable chasm from where I am standing.
It was bridgeable for a bit. Partly you need the chutzpah of a Johnson to try to sell it, partly you need to have not been selling it for several years. Johnson had something of an excuse for why his vision of Britain hadn't happened yet, but they've had five years and gone backwards. Most importantly, you need someone like Scary Jez to corral disparate voters into your lifeboat, however leaky it is.
2016-20 worked electorally because Lee Anderson and Rishi Sunak thought they were on the same side. They really aren't and were both chumps for thinking they were. Dislike of taxes and the EU aren't enough for a stable relationship.
The UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU was the most dramatic political and economic decision for generations. But as the country prepares for a general election, it is no longer on the political agenda. This film examines why no political party wants to talk about it, why Brexit remains the elephant in the room for British business and how it could actually work better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-7rDYo3FR4
Half an hour of Brexit from the Financial Times, uploaded within the last hour as if in response to this thread.
Message: It is essential to UK future to discuss and plan for developing and sorting our post Brexit relation with the EU.
It is essential to winning an election to say nothing about Brexit and the EU. (Or anything else).
No-one with any voice over the matter will talk to us.
Sotto voce conclusions (Martin Wolf): We hope Labour do stuff they won't talk about now. And All this suggests democracy doesn't work.
Mostly boneheads. They won't mention it (by They, I mean Labour and the Conservatives - maybe the LibDems will, don't know).
I voted Leave, and would happily stay out the EU still, but 24th February 2022 changed everything for me. I think rejoining EFTA, maybe even EEA, would show the EU we are serious about being close and friendly to the EU (and supporting them in NATO) without the need to rejoin the EU.
Labour should put forward a proposal to rejoin EFTA [1], perhaps with a referendum, for their manifesto - but they won't.
[1] The problem with 'rejoining' EFTA is Reform will frame it as rejoining the EU. We've left both EFTA and the EU, so any attempt to go back into either will be framed as 'rejoin' (because it is). So Reform will shout we're rejoining the EU by the back door and that could lead to a defeat in a poll.
People probably know better than I, but I'm not wrong in saying no member of EFTA is just in EFTA are they? Four members - three of them are also members of the EEA, and the Swiss have so many side deals with the EU its referred to as EFTA+ anyway? If the UK rejoined EFTA (only) would this help our trading relationship with the EU at all? Or would more side deals (or joining EEA) be needed?
All current EFTA members are also (not by EFTA alone) in the single market. It is that which remains the reason it is untouchable for the present.
If Brexit had worked the thing of reducing migration to small numbers along with economic prosperity there would be no issue. It has done neither.
But the matter of the single market, with FoM, remains untouchable for electoral reasons. Which is why the next election will leave all the difficult issues unaddressed. There is a reasonable chance of Labour starting an honest political process in due course, but don't hold your breath.
As the Tories will lose they could, but won't, take the chance of renewing their thinking.
'Labour plans to axe hereditary peers in UK House of Lords Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land! https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
Comments
I was wondering about split tickets a few weeks ago and was scornfully told that these days as goes the Senate so goes the Presidency.
Well, if Cruz loses in Texas, on that logic, so would Trump. In which case TSE would be burbling about stepmoms on Pornhub.
https://www.brixhampiratesfestival.com/
More Jack Sparrows than you can point a parrot at....
Yesterday I got an email from McAfee saying that a VPN was included in my subscription.
So I switched the VPN on, and found I couldn't access comments here.
I have now switched the VPN off.
There are also lots of anti abortion evangelicals in Texas
https://x.com/maria_avdv/status/1775051040435454324?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
For all their manifold faults I can't think of any Labour or LD cranks calling it for the orange one.
It is not going to go away as an issue of salience in the next six or seven months.
If Texas - the state which cares above all others about Mexican immigration - is showing positive signs for the blue squad over abortion that suggests Republicans are guilty of a crass error of judgement in picking their campaigning issues, if nothing worse.
If you want to understand why Labour is now more trusted on defence, it is because some (but not that many) Tories are visibly aligning with NATO-dismantler, pro-Putin Trump.
Note to governments, stop banning things and look to deal with the consequences of abuse instead.
The guy organising the project is Rabbi Mamo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In5I9KasnyM#t=11m20s
Calling @Leon: do you think the way Mamo talks about the Temple suggests he's a user of hallucinogens?
It is essential to winning an election to say nothing about Brexit and the EU. (Or anything else).
No-one with any voice over the matter will talk to us.
Sotto voce conclusions (Martin Wolf): We hope Labour do stuff they won't talk about now.
And
All this suggests democracy doesn't work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7HrnTMdT2Q
Though this little bit of gentle trolling at the Eurotunnel this week made me chuckle:
Both Sunak and Starmer remain committed to NATO however
It's only ephemeral anyway IMO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68712104
Has anyone seen an IDF/Israeli confirmation?
Lammy has openly said he isn't a fan of Trump but also if he wins he and Starmer would have to work with him as POTUS.
In fact the closest relationship with a Republican President in the last few decades (since Thatcher and Reagan and Major and Bush 41) with a UK PM was probably between Labour PM Blair and GOP President Bush. Indeed in 2004 some Tories even preferred Kerry
https://twitter.com/MOSSADil/status/1774962429044076954
Either is possible, but at the moment an Israeli strike seems more plausible on the evidence we have.
Texas might also be getting the message that Trump told his MAGA troops in Congress to block an agreed bipartisan border deal - for his own needs to keep immigration a party divide.
Edit: IDF in sincere condolences mode.
https://x.com/IDF/status/1775086598314475817?s=20
RefUK are starting from a low base, so they'll probably make some gains somewhere, which means they'll have something to trumpet. They'll do badly in the London Mayoral election but could pick up an Assembly seat or two.
The hard Left hate, and will apparently always hate, any centrist and successful Labour leader. There are plenty of them who would rather the tories win than a Blair-Starmer.
When PM Starmer falters they will be straight in there baying for his blood. I doubt they will succeed for 1 or maybe 2 elections by which time he’ll be ready to retire anyway.
It warms the cockles
I am in a ski lodge in the French Alps and the fellow has just vacuumed the floors with a Chard born and bred Henry 200. We can still manufacture and export!
Hip, hip, hooray for British enterprise!
Before we became full scale plunderers ourselves.
I'm not shedding any tears for the Spanish back then.
I am a life-long Tory voter from a family of life-long Tory voters. None of us going to be voting for this Blairite shower....
The roof seems partially bent outwards - so, something created overpressure inside the vehicle. Could have been from above - entrance via the hole - or not.
Main opposition party seeks to end ‘anachronistic system’ but would allow those ousted to retain access to parliament'
Looks like Starmer will go beyond even Blair's removal of most hereditaries and scrap them from the Lords completely. So vote Tory to keep our remaining hereditary peers in the Lords and the experience they bring of being rooted in the land!
https://www.ft.com/content/d7f3be9d-5f15-46b5-970a-9f42011dc1d8
In the meantime a ban after 6weeks (which is most abortions) will be introduced.
Also, I've noticed that as a result of the ban there are no longer small vials littering the streets... they've been replaced by much larger containers. Another stunning victory for the war on drugs!
Between me and Mortimer is the heart of the Tory problem.
I am not convinced this is the golden bullet you are looking for.
Defending hereditary peers is also a core Tory principle, popular or not
None of that however changes the fact defending hereditary peers is a Tory principle as much as increased state intervention in the economy is a Labour principle it largely is down to them to defend
Israel controls most of Gaza; what goes down there is now largely their responsibility.
?
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/01/florida-abortion-desantis-trump-00150024
...Once broadly available, Florida now has a 15-week ban that has no exceptions for rape and incest. The six-week ban is considered by opponents to be nearly an all-out ban given that most women don’t know they’re pregnant that early on. The ban will also affect patients who travel to Florida from across the Southeast, where abortion is similarly outlawed...
https://x.com/abbydphillip/status/1774999088313909738?s=20
My wife was very abrupt with him on the phone once.
CCHQ arguments over NEV will ring hollow in the face of large numbers of lost seats.
There is no attempt to take people out of poverty. No investment in public services, not even by enabling the private sector to take a greater role. No social reform. Poor relations with Europe rather than co-operation. On all these Blair was quite timid and leaning slightly right anyway. The only thing I see in common is a tendency to authoritarian centralising, hardly something that right wing parties rail against in my experience.
I do agree they are a shower.
I voted Leave, and would happily stay out the EU still, but 24th February 2022 changed everything for me. I think rejoining EFTA, maybe even EEA, would show the EU we are serious about being close and friendly to the EU (and supporting them in NATO) without the need to rejoin the EU.
Labour should put forward a proposal to rejoin EFTA [1], perhaps with a referendum, for their manifesto - but they won't.
[1] The problem with 'rejoining' EFTA is Reform will frame it as rejoining the EU.
We've left both EFTA and the EU, so any attempt to go back into either will be framed as 'rejoin' (because it is). So Reform will shout we're rejoining the EU by the back door and that could lead to a defeat in a poll.
People probably know better than I, but I'm not wrong in saying no member of EFTA is just in EFTA are they?
Four members - three of them are also members of the EEA, and the Swiss have so many side deals with the EU its referred to as EFTA+ anyway?
If the UK rejoined EFTA (only) would this help our trading relationship with the EU at all? Or would more side deals (or joining EEA) be needed?
Roman Catholics notionally oppose contraception. Do you want to see how banning contraception goes down with voters?
Abortion rights will be front and centre in the campaign to November in the US.
Of course, Oscar Wilde told us "The truth is rarely pure and never simple". Perhaps it's comforting that Rishi Sunak can be relied on to be always simple.
2016-20 worked electorally because Lee Anderson and Rishi Sunak thought they were on the same side. They really aren't and were both chumps for thinking they were. Dislike of taxes and the EU aren't enough for a stable relationship.
If Brexit had worked the thing of reducing migration to small numbers along with economic prosperity there would be no issue. It has done neither.
But the matter of the single market, with FoM, remains untouchable for electoral reasons. Which is why the next election will leave all the difficult issues unaddressed. There is a reasonable chance of Labour starting an honest political process in due course, but don't hold your breath.
As the Tories will lose they could, but won't, take the chance of renewing their thinking.