I wonder if it occurs to him that his own disgraceful appeasement and lack of support for Ukraine was one of the reasons Russia invaded in the first place?
I doubt it as that would mean humility and self-awareness, which don't seem to be the posturing Frog's strongest points.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well. But I agree, it’s difficult to imagine they can recover again as they did before - there’s no totemic issue to coalesce around, no slightly risky opposition leader to demonise, and no charismatic leader to call upon
Would you vote Labour if Sir Keir was not in charge?
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals.
The Tories didn't recover from their nadir in mid-2019 for no reason, but because of Johnson, and the promise to Get Brexit Done.
Oh dear, Minister who rails against wasting public money gets the taxpayer to fund her accommodation while renting out a flat nearby... Hardly 'common sense'!
So what is your take, as denizen of El Lay, re: the bombshell story about MLB mega-star Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, and his long-time mini-me translator?
The translator was just fired by the Dodgers, and Ohtani's lawyers are alleging that he (the translator) defrauded the ballplayer of "millions" via illegal sports betting.
Certainly the team has many reasons to defend their star player. To be precise, 10 million over ten years.
MY question is this - was the translator betting for himself? OR for someone else?
Asking for a friend, due to your hereditary ties to the international bookmaking fraternity.
Seems unlikely Ohtani himself has anything to do with it - he's on about $70m a year for the next decade (and probably as much again in endorsements over time).
You would think so. HOWEVER, rich people do stupid things at least as often as the rest of us, and probably more, given more opportunities.
However, according to this morning's Seattle Times:
On Tuesday, Mizuhara told ESPN his bets were on international soccer, the NBA, the NFL and college football. MLB rules prohibit players and team employees from wagering — even legally on baseball — and also ban betting on other sports with illegal or offshore bookmakers.
“I never bet on baseball,” Mizuhara told ESPN. “That’s 100%. I knew that rule … We have a meeting about that in spring training.”
SSI - So it appears that the interpreter THOUGHT that betting on sports OTHER than baseball was kosher according to "the rule". When it is NOT, at least when it comes to ILLEGAL sports betting.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well. But I agree, it’s difficult to imagine they can recover again as they did before - there’s no totemic issue to coalesce around, no slightly risky opposition leader to demonise, and no charismatic leader to call upon
Would you vote Labour if Sir Keir was not in charge?
It would depend who was, but it would be a lot more likely
Oh dear, Minister who rails against wasting public money gets the taxpayer to fund her accommodation while renting out a flat nearby... Hardly 'common sense'!
Other than this, have we heard a single squeak out of the ‘Common Sense Tsar’ since she was appointed? Yet another useless and pointless cabinet minister.
Penny could lead a dream ticket along with political veterans Bill Cash, Stephen Pound and Gordon Banks.
I don't think there was ever any MPs called 'bust', 'bankrupt' or 'debt'...
Speaking of MPs called bust etc, there really was one called Bossom of whom Churchill was supposed to have said "Bossom, Bossom, that's an odd name! Neither one thing nor the other".
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
The thing is, under Sunak the Conservatives are heading for a crushing defeat which may well be unlike anything seen in our lifetimes. It may not be Canadageddon but it looks like being an absolute shellacking.
So, will the Party accept their death like a weary bison eventually worn down by the wolf pack? Are they going to keel over and accept the inevitable?
Or will they decide that with a new leader they could save 50, maybe 100, MPs and so have a better platform in Parliament and the country for the future?
Getting a bit ahead of yourself, arn’t you? If England win the Euro’s and GB has a great Olympic’s, this polling can stand on its head.
You’ve omitted the bit about Susan Hall defeating Sadiq Khan
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
Yeah, Richi is safe from rebellious Tory MPs for now...
Oh...
@SamCoatesSky Last night Tory MPs were told that the whip next week was likely to be reduced so they wouldn’t have to return to the Commons pre Easter
But it seems that a deal between Tory and Labour whips to avoid votes on Monday’s Investigatory Powers Bill have collapsed
So Tory MPs being told three line whip stands on Monday
Poor little mites, actually having to turn up for work.
Most MPs are at work in their constituencies too. It's an impossible job, and all the reward a back bencher gets is sneering from the ignorant. It is also an increasingly dangerous job, because the psychotic take their cue from bullshit comments like this.
They're forever whining about how shit it is to be a politician in this country. How skint they are, how dangerous it is, how hard the hours are. How they don't get the respect that being an MP should get. I get that, but fuck me, the last few governments have bought it on themselves. My local MP, a sainted backbencher, is an absolutely lazy, out of touch shitshow. Luckily, she'll be out at the next election.
I take it she's from a party you don't support?
I've voted for her predecessor from the same party in the past. She's just useless at politics. Genuinely done nothing for the constituency. She was invisible during the town's flooding crisis this year. She ceded the ground totally to the local Labour councillor when she could have had an easy win, but as usual, just couldn't be bothered. She doesn't deserve respect or compassion for how "difficult and challenging being a British MP" is. She just deserves the sack, as many, many politicians do from this current crop. That they are mostly Tories is indicative of how badly they have failed the country.
I'm interested in Jenrick as another alternative, along with Tugendhat, to Sunak.
I can't comment on his slightly strange property dealings (which may just be taking the right opportunities), but as a local MP (Newark) in Notts, I'm interested how he may come out in the General Election.
When I compiled the list of Notts County seat majorities a few days ago his is the top at 22k iirc. Graphs below. He is perhaps in the position that Lee Anderson would have liked to create before his self-defenestration, but Newark vs Ashfield is more 'southern Notts' / middle class / rural / some commuter to London emphasis - plus in the top half (just - 45th %ile, rank 358 from bottom) of 'deprived' constituencies whilst Mansfield / Ashfield are in the bottom quarter (rank ~130 from bottom).
And Newark has a patchy, untidy history as a seat with strange personal factors eg Fiona Jones / Patrick Mercer.
Which of the potential Tory leadership contenders will be left standing?
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
Eh?
No they weren't
Sorry, four years and ten months ago
Oh I see. When Labour and Conservatives were almost neck and neck around 20%.
Sorry I was forgetting that bizarre time. Not really comparable to now but I see what you were saying.
In the unlikely event that Labour do indeed beat the Tories so soundly in the next election that they’re down to sub-100 seats…is there anything to stop say 150 Labour MPs “defecting” to a new party (let’s call it the cooperative party, which handily already exists), and forming HM *loyal* opposition?
And using PMQs every week to ask a series of soft-soap questions to PM Starmer while the Tories have to make do with one or two (or even, if they trail the Lib Dems, no automatic questions at all).
I mean that’s how opposition works in Russia so it’s worth trying, right?
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Yeah, Richi is safe from rebellious Tory MPs for now...
Oh...
@SamCoatesSky Last night Tory MPs were told that the whip next week was likely to be reduced so they wouldn’t have to return to the Commons pre Easter
But it seems that a deal between Tory and Labour whips to avoid votes on Monday’s Investigatory Powers Bill have collapsed
So Tory MPs being told three line whip stands on Monday
Poor little mites, actually having to turn up for work.
Most MPs are at work in their constituencies too. It's an impossible job, and all the reward a back bencher gets is sneering from the ignorant. It is also an increasingly dangerous job, because the psychotic take their cue from bullshit comments like this.
They're forever whining about how shit it is to be a politician in this country. How skint they are, how dangerous it is, how hard the hours are. How they don't get the respect that being an MP should get. I get that, but fuck me, the last few governments have bought it on themselves. My local MP, a sainted backbencher, is an absolutely lazy, out of touch shitshow. Luckily, she'll be out at the next election.
I take it she's from a party you don't support?
I've voted for her predecessor from the same party in the past. She's just useless at politics. Genuinely done nothing for the constituency. She was invisible during the town's flooding crisis this year. She ceded the ground totally to the local Labour councillor when she could have had an easy win, but as usual, just couldn't be bothered. She doesn't deserve respect or compassion for how "difficult and challenging being a British MP" is. She just deserves the sack, as many, many politicians do from this current crop. That they are mostly Tories is indicative of how badly they have failed the country.
Oh dear, Minister who rails against wasting public money gets the taxpayer to fund her accommodation while renting out a flat nearby... Hardly 'common sense'!
In 21st-century Toryspeak, "Take the money and run" = "common sense".
Same as waiting most impatiently for inconvenient relatives to get on with kicking the bucket, thus inconveniently depriving their spiteful heirs from enjoyment of money, property, furniture, etc., etc. in timely manner.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
Eh?
No they weren't
Sorry, four years and ten months ago
Oh I see. When Labour and Conservatives were almost neck and neck around 20%.
Sorry I was forgetting that bizarre time. Not really comparable to now but I see what you were saying.
Very relevant to current questions about the Reform surge. For all that people argue those voters are lost and not coming back to the Tories, history would suggest it’s the blocs that matter. RefCon vs LLG has shifted since 2019 and that’s the key thing, but Tory VI will recover.
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Without checking, I'd go for an Iraqi "supergun"?
Good to know the 'advanced manufacturing' sector will be kept going.
Though I wish they'd get on with the mini reactors for civilian purposes too.
I wonder if it occurs to him that his own disgraceful appeasement and lack of support for Ukraine was one of the reasons Russia invaded in the first place?
I doubt it as that would mean humility and self-awareness, which don't seem to be the posturing Frog's strongest points.
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Without checking, I'd go for an Iraqi "supergun"?
Good to know the 'advanced manufacturing' sector will be kept going.
Though I wish they'd get on with the mini reactors for civilian purposes too.
A foreign company wanted to buy them and HMG (unusually) stepped in for national security reasons?
"Unpatchable vulnerability in Apple chip leaks secret encryption keys Fixing newly discovered side channel will likely take a major toll on performance."
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Without checking, I'd go for an Iraqi "supergun"?
Bingo.
That was a bizarre episode. Was there ever a chance of the thing working?
I don't think we ever heard the full story about that.
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Clegg, as a Sheffield MP, reneged on a promise to help? Or something like that!
The thing is, under Sunak the Conservatives are heading for a crushing defeat which may well be unlike anything seen in our lifetimes. It may not be Canadageddon but it looks like being an absolute shellacking.
So, will the Party accept their death like a weary bison eventually worn down by the wolf pack? Are they going to keel over and accept the inevitable?
Or will they decide that with a new leader they could save 50, maybe 100, MPs and so have a better platform in Parliament and the country for the future?
As a conservative of many decades I simply do not recognise the party today as it fractures, with Reform attracting the former UKIP denizens seeking a future that is long in the past and fail to recognise how the country has moved on, and the country is looking for a stable government that at least is not part of a prejudiced anti immigration anti EU cabal
I no longer am that interested in polling as the die is already cast, and the conservative party will have a very long time to decide what it stands for, so much so I do not expect to see another conservative government in my lifetime
For all the criticism of Sunak, and it is obvious he is clueless on politics, he has with the competent Hunt, stabilised the economy so much so that I expect by November (when I think the GE will be) they will have recovered a wee bit but nowhere near enough to stop a Starmer landslide
Starmer and Reeves have a mountain to climb and I see very little in their pronouncements that they have remotely understood the terrible and difficult decisions the next government faces but at least they have to be given the opportunity, one which has been gifted to them by the conservatives idiotic in fighting
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Clegg, as a Sheffield MP, reneged on a promise to help? Or something like that!
Yes, now that you remind me, I remember that. But I was thinking of the supergun.
Today's YouGov is a reminder that until May 2019 everyone assumed the core Conservaitve vote could never fall below 30% but as 2019 showed, the core Conservative vote is about the same as the core Liberal Democrat vote.
Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth. As with so much else in politics, it's nuanced. In some areas you could well see a shift back to the Conservatives, in other areas you won't and good old Abe Stention may be a popular option.
What we also know (and could probably have guessed) is while the Reform leadership might be in the small state, low tax camp, those inclining to vote may not. It's a curious paradox of politics you often get people voting for a party whose views are often inimical to that that party stands for - it's more a vote against another party.
This time there seems little doubt there's a very strong anti-Conservative sentiment out there - could be due to longevity in office or more likely the way the party has comported itself in office (shades of 1997 and 1964). It seems unlikely a few bits of good economic news will shift that sentiment - it didn't in 1997 when the economy was performing very well. In any case, it's not always about inflation numbers or GDP statistics but perceptions - how are public services doing? How does it "feel" to be living in 2024 Britain and that's a difficult one to quantify.
In any case as we see with discussions around levels of crime the truth and perception can often be distant acquaintances.,
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Hmmm. Rolls-Royce?
Aren't Forgemasters the Nationalised-By-Boris one?
I think the most +ve side for the UK of that announcement is that it will be a reaction to counterbalance potential pressure from the USA to buy more second hand submarines from there.
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Without checking, I'd go for an Iraqi "supergun"?
Bingo.
That was a bizarre episode. Was there ever a chance of the thing working?
I don't think we ever heard the full story about that.
Bits of it in odd museums in the UK. Look like very posh culvert sections in stainless steel. E.g. Fort Nelson on Portsdown above Pompey - but check if on display before visiting.
Good news: AUKUS submarines to be built in Australia with BAE / Sheffield Forgemasters reactors. (Certain PB military cognescenti assured us they would be built in the US, as I recall).
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
Hmmm. Rolls-Royce?
You are right. Bae subs with Rolls Royce reactors.
I suspect the feelgood from a victory for England football in the Euros is more likely to benefit Starmer, a genuine football fan, than Sunak. It seems unlikely that Sunak is equipped to replace Kane at the front, which is what he'd need to cruise to a GE victory.
Today's YouGov is a reminder that until May 2019 everyone assumed the core Conservaitve vote could never fall below 30% but as 2019 showed, the core Conservative vote is about the same as the core Liberal Democrat vote.
Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth. As with so much else in politics, it's nuanced. In some areas you could well see a shift back to the Conservatives, in other areas you won't and good old Abe Stention may be a popular option.
What we also know (and could probably have guessed) is while the Reform leadership might be in the small state, low tax camp, those inclining to vote may not. It's a curious paradox of politics you often get people voting for a party whose views are often inimical to that that party stands for - it's more a vote against another party.
This time there seems little doubt there's a very strong anti-Conservative sentiment out there - could be due to longevity in office or more likely the way the party has comported itself in office (shades of 1997 and 1964). It seems unlikely a few bits of good economic news will shift that sentiment - it didn't in 1997 when the economy was performing very well. In any case, it's not always about inflation numbers or GDP statistics but perceptions - how are public services doing? How does it "feel" to be living in 2024 Britain and that's a difficult one to quantify.
In any case as we see with discussions around levels of crime the truth and perception can often be distant acquaintances.,
X = level of wealth created and services provided Y = level of wealth consumed and services used Z = level of wealth consumption and services usage people think they are entitled to
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals. I bought at 27.
I think the issue is with FPTP which creates tipping points for the big two parties whereby you go from a relatively stable position whereby even a massive defeat leaves you in a position that's essentially recoverable to one which is apocalyptic, very quickly and with little warning.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
I suspect the feelgood from a victory for England football in the Euros is more likely to benefit Starmer, a genuine football fan, than Sunak. It seems unlikely that Sunak is equipped to replace Kane at the front, which is what he'd need to cruise to a GE victory.
Even sans Anderson there are bound to be some Tory MPs who can't resist a spat with the England players over something trivial.
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals. I bought at 27.
I think the issue is with FPTP which creates tipping points for the big two parties whereby you go from a relatively stable position whereby even a massive defeat leaves you in a position that's essentially recoverable to one which is apocalyptic, very quickly and with little warning.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
Sunak has been Mr Quiet Competence ** but its irrelevant when there's a continuous stream of:
1) Financial and sexual sleaze involving Conservative politicians 2) Endless self-obsessed internal arguing from Conservative politicians
** Not enough to stop a GE defeat but that was a certainty after the Downing Street parties and Truss interlude.
Council Tax cannot rise by more than 5% without a referendum.
I've just opened my Council Tax Bill (London Borough of Barnet). The Barnet increase (including the Adult Social Care bit) is 5% - OK.
But the Greater London Authority increase is 8.6%. Why does the Government allow this - surely it should also be restricted to 5%?
The GLA increase last year was 9.7%. So the cumulative GLA increase over the two years is 19.1% - an absolutely huge amount, disguised a bit by the fact that the Barnet element is the larger component.
Council Tax cannot rise by more than 5% without a referendum.
I've just opened my Council Tax Bill (London Borough of Barnet). The Barnet increase (including the Adult Social Care bit) is 5% - OK.
But the Greater London Authority increase is 8.6%. Why does the Government allow this - surely it should also be restricted to 5%?
The GLA increase last year was 9.7%. So the cumulative GLA increase over the two years is 19.1% - an absolutely huge amount, disguised a bit by the fact that the Barnet element is the larger component.
It's a truly shocking figure.
We're continually told that people are happy to pay more taxes.
Is the GLA part for the police and fire brigade ? They tend to go up by more than the standard amount.
Council Tax cannot rise by more than 5% without a referendum.
I've just opened my Council Tax Bill (London Borough of Barnet). The Barnet increase (including the Adult Social Care bit) is 5% - OK.
But the Greater London Authority increase is 8.6%. Why does the Government allow this - surely it should also be restricted to 5%?
The GLA increase last year was 9.7%. So the cumulative GLA increase over the two years is 19.1% - an absolutely huge amount, disguised a bit by the fact that the Barnet element is the larger component.
It's a truly shocking figure.
Our council tax increase in Conwy is 9.7% following a 9.9% increase last year
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals. I bought at 27.
I think the issue is with FPTP which creates tipping points for the big two parties whereby you go from a relatively stable position whereby even a massive defeat leaves you in a position that's essentially recoverable to one which is apocalyptic, very quickly and with little warning.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
Sunak has been Mr Quiet Competence ** but its irrelevant when there's a continuous stream of:
1) Financial and sexual sleaze involving Conservative politicians 2) Endless self-obsessed internal arguing from Conservative politicians
** Not enough to stop a GE defeat but that was a certainty after the Downing Street parties and Truss interlude.
Today's YouGov is a reminder that until May 2019 everyone assumed the core Conservaitve vote could never fall below 30% but as 2019 showed, the core Conservative vote is about the same as the core Liberal Democrat vote.
Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth. As with so much else in politics, it's nuanced. In some areas you could well see a shift back to the Conservatives, in other areas you won't and good old Abe Stention may be a popular option.
What we also know (and could probably have guessed) is while the Reform leadership might be in the small state, low tax camp, those inclining to vote may not. It's a curious paradox of politics you often get people voting for a party whose views are often inimical to that that party stands for - it's more a vote against another party.
This time there seems little doubt there's a very strong anti-Conservative sentiment out there - could be due to longevity in office or more likely the way the party has comported itself in office (shades of 1997 and 1964). It seems unlikely a few bits of good economic news will shift that sentiment - it didn't in 1997 when the economy was performing very well. In any case, it's not always about inflation numbers or GDP statistics but perceptions - how are public services doing? How does it "feel" to be living in 2024 Britain and that's a difficult one to quantify.
In any case as we see with discussions around levels of crime the truth and perception can often be distant acquaintances.,
“Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth.”
But there are comments in that thread, that some of us, when we hear you say that, are just plain laughing at you. Like this -
Myth? 🥹😂🤣🥲
GE isn’t comparable with votes from any other election, becuase only with GE are you giving someone REAL power with your vote. Once it’s starts GE is always going to be different in peoples minds.
When I see all these current smorgasbord polling, the thing that leaps out at me is “that’s definitely not going to happen” - that smorgasbord polling, that mountain of deliberately wasted votes, is telling us this coming election, perhaps more than any other election, has potential to dramatically change once starting gun is fired.
It’s the Dutch salute. They are saluting now. But long Before it comes to going over the top out the trench, they will have changed their mind.
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals. I bought at 27.
I think the issue is with FPTP which creates tipping points for the big two parties whereby you go from a relatively stable position whereby even a massive defeat leaves you in a position that's essentially recoverable to one which is apocalyptic, very quickly and with little warning.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
Sunak has been Mr Quiet Competence ** but its irrelevant when there's a continuous stream of:
1) Financial and sexual sleaze involving Conservative politicians 2) Endless self-obsessed internal arguing from Conservative politicians
** Not enough to stop a GE defeat but that was a certainty after the Downing Street parties and Truss interlude.
He hasn't though has he? Because he made the error of appointing Braverman and then trying to appease the Tory right with the ridiculous Rwanda bill and then making it a defining issue.
"Quietly competent" people don't spend £500 million + on a policy that won't do anything to solve the issue it claims to even if it's enacted fully to the letter. Furthermore, quietly competent people don't make the mistake of staking their leadership on it, boosting a rival party in the process. All for a policy whose sole outcome is to hand lots of British taxpayers' money to an African dictator.
That's before we get to the other examples of political tone deafness and cock ups.
I think what happened is that a lot of Tories mistook vibes for reality. Sunak is very much "one of us". Right schooling, right universities, right social group, right clubs and garden parties. But it's no substitute for having a political antennae.
I think I have had to accept today I’ve become a gammon. I thought I had enough “socially liberal” in me that I would resist but I guess the tipping point has arrived.
First of all the Guardian set off my gammon alarm with an absolutely ridiculous article in Comment is Free suggesting that judges who are members of the Garrick shouldn’t preside over rape cases as they obviously don’t like women by being members of a men only club.
The second and irreversible pinking of my face came with a perusal of the football pages where I spied an article about a news story where Nike have decided that they wanted to make some sort of statement by changing the St George cross on the England shirts from red to some weird mess.
The article was captioned thus,
Before my gammonness takes over and I stop even bothering to explain my harrumphing about “these days” I thought I would have a final vent. The targets are Nike and the Guardian.
Firstly why are Nike doing this? What’s the f-ing point? It doesn’t mean anything in the colours they’ve chosen so all they’ve done is annoy a lot of their customers who buy England shirts because some twat thought it was a good idea to change a national symbol on a football shirt. It’s not cool, it’s not groundbreaking and it’s not going to suddenly shift more sales.
As for the Guardian it’s their typical reaction to anyone saying anything that might be considered a little bit conservative. Denigrating the people who aren’t happy and looking down on them. Maybe people actually like their national symbols and don’t like people messing around with them. Maybe changing flags on things where the whole reason for that thing existing is a national identifier - the shirt of a national team - is really stupid and antagonistic. Why is the guardian so reflexively unable to accept that some people, a lot of people, actually like traditions, symbolism, badges. Why are they bad for liking them?
It sticks in the craw to type words that might possibly boost Tory morale, but why is there a general assumption that a polling crossover with Reform would be of such earth-shaking significance for a general election?
Remember The Independent Group, renamed Change UK, with Chuka Umunna? They got 14% in one YouGov poll.
The Tories finished FIFTH in the EU election in May 2019 - they even got beaten by eco nuts - and then they won the general election in December.
The only real question is do I receive the payout on my bet on Penny as next PM before or after the locals. I bought at 27.
I think the issue is with FPTP which creates tipping points for the big two parties whereby you go from a relatively stable position whereby even a massive defeat leaves you in a position that's essentially recoverable to one which is apocalyptic, very quickly and with little warning.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
Sunak has been Mr Quiet Competence ** but its irrelevant when there's a continuous stream of:
1) Financial and sexual sleaze involving Conservative politicians 2) Endless self-obsessed internal arguing from Conservative politicians
** Not enough to stop a GE defeat but that was a certainty after the Downing Street parties and Truss interlude.
"Sunak has been Mr Quiet Competence"
More like Mr. Disquiet Incompetence.
Its all relative but:
1) The Northern Ireland political and trade negotiations have been done competently
2) The energy / welfare subsidies have been done competently
3) The tax / national insurance changes have been done competently
All my opinion of course and who should get the credit I don't know.
Today's YouGov is a reminder that until May 2019 everyone assumed the core Conservaitve vote could never fall below 30% but as 2019 showed, the core Conservative vote is about the same as the core Liberal Democrat vote.
Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth. As with so much else in politics, it's nuanced. In some areas you could well see a shift back to the Conservatives, in other areas you won't and good old Abe Stention may be a popular option.
What we also know (and could probably have guessed) is while the Reform leadership might be in the small state, low tax camp, those inclining to vote may not. It's a curious paradox of politics you often get people voting for a party whose views are often inimical to that that party stands for - it's more a vote against another party.
This time there seems little doubt there's a very strong anti-Conservative sentiment out there - could be due to longevity in office or more likely the way the party has comported itself in office (shades of 1997 and 1964). It seems unlikely a few bits of good economic news will shift that sentiment - it didn't in 1997 when the economy was performing very well. In any case, it's not always about inflation numbers or GDP statistics but perceptions - how are public services doing? How does it "feel" to be living in 2024 Britain and that's a difficult one to quantify.
In any case as we see with discussions around levels of crime the truth and perception can often be distant acquaintances.,
X = level of wealth created and services provided Y = level of wealth consumed and services used Z = level of wealth consumption and services usage people think they are entitled to
Z>Y>X
And Z is growing at a quicker rate than X.
You can elect y at a mid term by election, because that’s just protesting with 1 MP - but vote x at General Election because when it comes down to it you don’t want y in power. Because x have experience of power, you know where you are with x, y you don’t know much about, but you know they are seriously inexperienced at running a country.
For some this is catastrophe theory. Like, what on earth is going on. Who could have foreseen this.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
These really are lamentable polls, there can't be very many times the governing party has plumbed these sort of depths, and of course if there is Reform crossover then there's no doubt yet another shitstorm will break out. Although the Tories will recover somewhat as the election approaches (well that is what you'd expect anyway); I really see no routes for their recovery. They are done for.
They were polling around about this level five years ago as well.
Eh?
No they weren't
Sorry, four years and ten months ago
Oh I see. When Labour and Conservatives were almost neck and neck around 20%.
Sorry I was forgetting that bizarre time. Not really comparable to now but I see what you were saying.
Very relevant to current questions about the Reform surge. For all that people argue those voters are lost and not coming back to the Tories, history would suggest it’s the blocs that matter. RefCon vs LLG has shifted since 2019 and that’s the key thing, but Tory VI will recover.
It will not recover.
There were very different factors then. First, Boris Johnson. Second Nigel Farage did a deal with Boris.
Sunak shafted Boris and the three (is it four I forget?) PMs have in turn shafted the country.
I suspect the feelgood from a victory for England football in the Euros is more likely to benefit Starmer, a genuine football fan, than Sunak. It seems unlikely that Sunak is equipped to replace Kane at the front, which is what he'd need to cruise to a GE victory.
On the other hand, Scotland coming second in their group and facing the Auld Enemy in the quarter final could upset the applecart!
The thing is, under Sunak the Conservatives are heading for a crushing defeat which may well be unlike anything seen in our lifetimes. It may not be Canadageddon but it looks like being an absolute shellacking.
So, will the Party accept their death like a weary bison eventually worn down by the wolf pack? Are they going to keel over and accept the inevitable?
Or will they decide that with a new leader they could save 50, maybe 100, MPs and so have a better platform in Parliament and the country for the future?
Getting a bit ahead of yourself, arn’t you? If England win the Euro’s and GB has a great Olympic’s, this polling can stand on its head.
You’ve omitted the bit about Susan Hall defeating Sadiq Khan
We don’t want to step into the realms of fantasy, Heathener. It’s a serious business being a conservative backbencher in a situation like this.
Council Tax cannot rise by more than 5% without a referendum.
I've just opened my Council Tax Bill (London Borough of Barnet). The Barnet increase (including the Adult Social Care bit) is 5% - OK.
But the Greater London Authority increase is 8.6%. Why does the Government allow this - surely it should also be restricted to 5%?
The GLA increase last year was 9.7%. So the cumulative GLA increase over the two years is 19.1% - an absolutely huge amount, disguised a bit by the fact that the Barnet element is the larger component.
It's a truly shocking figure.
Is that actually shocking? A council has to cope with inflation during the previous year in this year's increase, and we have just had 2 years of just-under-10% inflation.
According to the Bank of England, inflation 2021-2023 was 18.5%, so I don't think that an element of Council Tax up 19.1% over the period 2022-2024 really counts as outrageous. More concerning is that the Barnet fraction represents a substantial reduction - I've had this in Nottinghamshire. IMO Government forcing an effective Real Terms reduction each year is the shocking behaviour.
(And ignoring your substantive point)
I love that Barnet has a special page dedicated to "Freemen on the Land" and why that will not stop you having to pay Council Tax. The influence of Brian "roads, roads, roads and roads" Coleman persists *?
* I did not realise that current MP Mike Freer then in his role at Barnet Council spent £10k of Barnet Council Taxpayer's money on legal advice for Coleman himself during one of his many scandals, and that the £10k was not recovered as was the Council's right.
Comments
I doubt it as that would mean humility and self-awareness, which don't seem to be the posturing Frog's strongest points.
What's going to change now?
Oh dear, Minister who rails against wasting public money gets the taxpayer to fund her accommodation while renting out a flat nearby... Hardly 'common sense'!
However, according to this morning's Seattle Times:
On Tuesday, Mizuhara told ESPN his bets were on international soccer, the NBA, the NFL and college football. MLB rules prohibit players and team employees from wagering — even legally on baseball — and also ban betting on other sports with illegal or offshore bookmakers.
“I never bet on baseball,” Mizuhara told ESPN. “That’s 100%. I knew that rule … We have a meeting about that in spring training.”
SSI - So it appears that the interpreter THOUGHT that betting on sports OTHER than baseball was kosher according to "the rule". When it is NOT, at least when it comes to ILLEGAL sports betting.
No they weren't
https://x.com/archrose90/status/1770844031729221869
I can't comment on his slightly strange property dealings (which may just be taking the right opportunities), but as a local MP (Newark) in Notts, I'm interested how he may come out in the General Election.
When I compiled the list of Notts County seat majorities a few days ago his is the top at 22k iirc. Graphs below. He is perhaps in the position that Lee Anderson would have liked to create before his self-defenestration, but Newark vs Ashfield is more 'southern Notts' / middle class / rural / some commuter to London emphasis - plus in the top half (just - 45th %ile, rank 358 from bottom) of 'deprived' constituencies whilst Mansfield / Ashfield are in the bottom quarter (rank ~130 from bottom).
And Newark has a patchy, untidy history as a seat with strange personal factors eg Fiona Jones / Patrick Mercer.
Which of the potential Tory leadership contenders will be left standing?
So yes, there's potential there.
"Scottish Parliament staff banned from wearing rainbow lanyard"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68629616
Sorry I was forgetting that bizarre time. Not really comparable to now but I see what you were saying.
In the unlikely event that Labour do indeed beat the Tories so soundly in the next election that they’re down to sub-100 seats…is there anything to stop say 150 Labour MPs “defecting” to a new party (let’s call it the cooperative party, which handily already exists), and forming HM *loyal* opposition?
And using PMQs every week to ask a series of soft-soap questions to PM Starmer while the Tories have to make do with one or two (or even, if they trail the Lib Dems, no automatic questions at all).
I mean that’s how opposition works in Russia so it’s worth trying, right?
(Sheffield Forgemasters was briefly politically famous. Can you remember why?)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66132158
My Surrey tory friend singled him out for ultimate venom the other day: "the Nastiest of the Nasties."
Put him in charge and the tories will dip below 50 seats.
Same as waiting most impatiently for inconvenient relatives to get on with kicking the bucket, thus inconveniently depriving their spiteful heirs from enjoyment of money, property, furniture, etc., etc. in timely manner.
Good to know the 'advanced manufacturing' sector will be kept going.
Though I wish they'd get on with the mini reactors for civilian purposes too.
"Unpatchable vulnerability in Apple chip leaks secret encryption keys
Fixing newly discovered side channel will likely take a major toll on performance."
https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/03/hackers-can-extract-secret-encryption-keys-from-apples-mac-chips/
I did enjoy SKS's sword of Damocles quip at PMQs yesterday, primarily because Penny's face turned instantly to thunder.
I don't think we ever heard the full story about that.
But think of all the lawyers and consultants who will become richer from it.
I no longer am that interested in polling as the die is already cast, and the conservative party will have a very long time to decide what it stands for, so much so I do not expect to see another conservative government in my lifetime
For all the criticism of Sunak, and it is obvious he is clueless on politics, he has with the competent Hunt, stabilised the economy so much so that I expect by November (when I think the GE will be) they will have recovered a wee bit but nowhere near enough to stop a Starmer landslide
Starmer and Reeves have a mountain to climb and I see very little in their pronouncements that they have remotely understood the terrible and difficult decisions the next government faces but at least they have to be given the opportunity, one which has been gifted to them by the conservatives idiotic in fighting
Today's YouGov is a reminder that until May 2019 everyone assumed the core Conservaitve vote could never fall below 30% but as 2019 showed, the core Conservative vote is about the same as the core Liberal Democrat vote.
Today's earlier thread once again undermined the "Reform voters are all Tories" myth. As with so much else in politics, it's nuanced. In some areas you could well see a shift back to the Conservatives, in other areas you won't and good old Abe Stention may be a popular option.
What we also know (and could probably have guessed) is while the Reform leadership might be in the small state, low tax camp, those inclining to vote may not. It's a curious paradox of politics you often get people voting for a party whose views are often inimical to that that party stands for - it's more a vote against another party.
This time there seems little doubt there's a very strong anti-Conservative sentiment out there - could be due to longevity in office or more likely the way the party has comported itself in office (shades of 1997 and 1964). It seems unlikely a few bits of good economic news will shift that sentiment - it didn't in 1997 when the economy was performing very well. In any case, it's not always about inflation numbers or GDP statistics but perceptions - how are public services doing? How does it "feel" to be living in 2024 Britain and that's a difficult one to quantify.
In any case as we see with discussions around levels of crime the truth and perception can often be distant acquaintances.,
Aren't Forgemasters the Nationalised-By-Boris one?
I think the most +ve side for the UK of that announcement is that it will be a reaction to counterbalance potential pressure from the USA to buy more second hand submarines from there.
1) Iraq supergun
2) Nick Clegg upsetting people
It seems unlikely that Sunak is equipped to replace Kane at the front, which is what he'd need to cruise to a GE victory.
Or
X = level of wealth created and services provided
Y = level of wealth consumed and services used
Z = level of wealth consumption and services usage people think they are entitled to
Z>Y>X
And Z is growing at a quicker rate than X.
That's because a lot of people are voting Labour or Tory as it's the big party closest to their views. Lose that and fall behind a rival regularly in polling and things get ugly. While the main barrier to any upstart party that effectively dooms them is just that.
Both Labour and the Tories kind of faced this in 2019 and took quite obvious steps to avoid it. The Tories installed Boris, rushed a Brexit deal by hook or by crook, did a deal with Farage. Labour had to go for a 2nd Referendum to avoid a potential crossover with the Lib Dems (who had swallowed Change UK).
Both righted the ship by doing what they had to do. Labour to secure its base. The Tories to win with a much more united wider pool of voters who all wanted to leave the EU.
The tricky thing now for the Tories is that there's not an obvious lever to pull to get there. Sunak was meant to be that by being Mr. Quiet Competence and reminding the the traditional liberal wing why they voted Tory (despite being pretty right-wing himself). But it didn't work, and now the thing uniting disparate groups of voters is an overwhelming desire to get rid of the Tories.
So if Reform did start consistently polling ahead of them it would be a pretty big problem as the argument they were just a protest vote and that people on the right should vote Tory to stop Labour rather falls away. With potentially disastrous consequences for them - as previously loyal Tories began looking at Reform or the Lib Dems as their alternative to Labour.
1) Financial and sexual sleaze involving Conservative politicians
2) Endless self-obsessed internal arguing from Conservative politicians
** Not enough to stop a GE defeat but that was a certainty after the Downing Street parties and Truss interlude.
I've just opened my Council Tax Bill (London Borough of Barnet). The Barnet increase (including the Adult Social Care bit) is 5% - OK.
But the Greater London Authority increase is 8.6%. Why does the Government allow this - surely it should also be restricted to 5%?
The GLA increase last year was 9.7%. So the cumulative GLA increase over the two years is 19.1% - an absolutely huge amount, disguised a bit by the fact that the Barnet element is the larger component.
It's a truly shocking figure.
Is the GLA part for the police and fire brigade ? They tend to go up by more than the standard amount.
More like Mr. Disquiet Incompetence.
But there are comments in that thread, that some of us, when we hear you say that, are just plain laughing at you. Like this -
Myth? 🥹😂🤣🥲
GE isn’t comparable with votes from any other election, becuase only with GE are you giving someone REAL power with your vote. Once it’s starts GE is always going to be different in peoples minds.
When I see all these current smorgasbord polling, the thing that leaps out at me is “that’s definitely not going to happen” - that smorgasbord polling, that mountain of deliberately wasted votes, is telling us this coming election, perhaps more than any other election, has potential to dramatically change once starting gun is fired.
It’s the Dutch salute. They are saluting now. But long Before it comes to going over the top out the trench, they will have changed their mind.
If you don’t believe me just watch.
"Quietly competent" people don't spend £500 million + on a policy that won't do anything to solve the issue it claims to even if it's enacted fully to the letter. Furthermore, quietly competent people don't make the mistake of staking their leadership on it, boosting a rival party in the process. All for a policy whose sole outcome is to hand lots of British taxpayers' money to an African dictator.
That's before we get to the other examples of political tone deafness and cock ups.
I think what happened is that a lot of Tories mistook vibes for reality. Sunak is very much "one of us". Right schooling, right universities, right social group, right clubs and garden parties. But it's no substitute for having a political antennae.
First of all the Guardian set off my gammon alarm with an absolutely ridiculous article in Comment is Free suggesting that judges who are members of the Garrick shouldn’t preside over rape cases as they obviously don’t like women by being members of a men only club.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/21/judges-garrick-club-women-rape-sexism-trials
The second and irreversible pinking of my face came with a perusal of the football pages where I spied an article about a news story where Nike have decided that they wanted to make some sort of statement by changing the St George cross on the England shirts from red to some weird mess.
The article was captioned thus,
Before my gammonness takes over and I stop even bothering to explain my harrumphing about “these days” I thought I would have a final vent. The targets are Nike and the Guardian.
Firstly why are Nike doing this? What’s the f-ing point? It doesn’t mean anything in the colours they’ve chosen so all they’ve done is annoy a lot of their customers who buy England shirts because some twat thought it was a good idea to change a national symbol on a football shirt. It’s not cool, it’s not groundbreaking and it’s not going to suddenly shift more sales.
As for the Guardian it’s their typical reaction to anyone saying anything that might be considered a little bit conservative. Denigrating the people who aren’t happy and looking down on them. Maybe people actually like their national symbols and don’t like people messing around with them. Maybe changing flags on things where the whole reason for that thing existing is a national identifier - the shirt of a national team - is really stupid and antagonistic. Why is the guardian so reflexively unable to accept that some people, a lot of people, actually like traditions, symbolism, badges. Why are they bad for liking them?
1) The Northern Ireland political and trade negotiations have been done competently
2) The energy / welfare subsidies have been done competently
3) The tax / national insurance changes have been done competently
All my opinion of course and who should get the credit I don't know.
NEW THREAD
For some this is catastrophe theory. Like, what on earth is going on. Who could have foreseen this.
For others “just another Lion Election”.
There were very different factors then. First, Boris Johnson. Second Nigel Farage did a deal with Boris.
Sunak shafted Boris and the three (is it four I forget?) PMs have in turn shafted the country.
According to the Bank of England, inflation 2021-2023 was 18.5%, so I don't think that an element of Council Tax up 19.1% over the period 2022-2024 really counts as outrageous. More concerning is that the Barnet fraction represents a substantial reduction - I've had this in Nottinghamshire. IMO Government forcing an effective Real Terms reduction each year is the shocking behaviour.
(And ignoring your substantive point)
I love that Barnet has a special page dedicated to "Freemen on the Land" and why that will not stop you having to pay Council Tax. The influence of Brian "roads, roads, roads and roads" Coleman persists *?
https://www.barnet.gov.uk/council-tax/freeman-land-and-challenges-legality-council-tax
* I did not realise that current MP Mike Freer then in his role at Barnet Council spent £10k of Barnet Council Taxpayer's money on legal advice for Coleman himself during one of his many scandals, and that the £10k was not recovered as was the Council's right.