So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
What we shall need from any possible government, including Starmer's, is a plan which makes sense not only in respect of politics but also WRT debt, tax, deficit on current account and spending. Until you know what that is, the rest doesn't really mean much as it is mere tinkering.
As AI is a much discussed topic on the forum, here is an example of using the technology to its strengths: early detection of cancers. Much more interesting than the creation of derivative content IMV.
That is a poor article. It states, “the results of the evaluation have not yet been peer reviewed”. You shouldn’t be doing press before peer review.
The article focuses on cancer detection. However, the downsides of these systems are (a) high false positive rates, and (b) detecting cancers that are not clinically significant. The article also fails to mention that double reading, as is standard in the UK, avoids most of the problems of fatigue they talk about.
AI systems in screening mammography have been around for many years. They are getting better. They will probably be better than humans at some point. But that article is hype.
You're missing the real use of the system, which is for AI to replace the second human check in negative findings. The AI negative findings in that case have been 100% reliable in the study.
That alone would save a very large workload.
It doesn't say that in the BBC article. There's no peer reviewed publication to check. Earlier generation screening mammography had high false positive rates (see our review, https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/5173/ ).
No, it doesn't. But I listened to the interview with the NHS consultant on the Today program.
Plenty of caveats, as you say, but it sounded as though it's fairly likely to be in frontline use relatively soon.
Maybe but remember the hype around IBM's Watson AI that was going to revolutionise cancer treatment. IBM had tie-ups with some of America's (and therefore the world's) leading hospitals but after a few years it fell apart, for a number of reasons including (and this is off the top of my head):-
1. Statement of the obvious; even a 3rd year medical student can diagnose and treat that one, let alone experienced radiologists and oncologists. If AI spots the 1 in 1,000 case they've missed, then it is telling them what they already know the other 999 times, and that assumes AI never gets it wrong. 2. AI gets things wrong too. 3. Prescription of the impossible. We simply don't have a state of the art ACME Cancertron machine here in Bumfuck Alabama. 4. Unrepresentative data. You trained your AI on office-working New Yorkers but we're in a Chinese coal mining district.
And no doubt a bunch of other reasons I've forgotten.
Biden now leads Trump by 1 point in The Economist's polling tracker.
Monday is a huge day for Trump. He either lets his assets - including Trump Tower - get taken in settlement of his New York civil fraud case to settle his $500m+ award plus interest obligations. Or somebody buys him and puts up the cash. Either way, his opponents get to make hay at his wrecked schtick as a guy so rich and so successful in business he can't be bought.
It's also going to be very difficult for the legacy media to continue with their "nothing to see here" line.
You've been saying that he'll be found out any day now for months, if not years.
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
Yep, which just shows again why the self-indulgent Tory MPs shouldn’t have got rid of Truss. At least she had ideas, Sunak is a size-too-small empty suit, who doesn’t appear to be able to actually do anything.
Sunaks problem is the classic one of over promising and under delivering. No wonder the voters aren't convinced by further promises.
One thing that Starmer and Reeves cannot be accused of is over-promising. On delivery we will have to wait and see.
Politicians don't have to make promises any more.
People just imagine that they have made them and then complain when these imaginary promises are not achieved.
While anything that they do achieve will be immediately forgotten or taken as granted.
The Tories promised to cut immigration, but put it up to an all time high. They promised to cut taxes and put them to an all time high. They promised to Level up and abandoned it. They promised growth and got a recession.
Voters aren't daft.
Aren't they? We canvassed one the other week who thought it was about time we got rid of Boris Johnson as PM and over the years I have come across some similar silly comments. Here are a couple:
a) In the days of the arguments over water meters someone seriously tried to argue with me that as a swimming pool owner he shouldn't be forced to have one as he was a minority person. The minority bit wasn't because he was black or gay but because he owned a swimming pool.
b) I was also told by a voter that he would never vote liberal because they had done so much damage. This was at the height of a Tory government, in a Tory county council, in a Tory borough that had 100% Tory representatives. I mean at least give us a chance to cock it up.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
As the great Tony Benn said there are signpost politicians and weathercock politicians
I support sign post ones who stick to their principles SKS fans are supporting the biggest cock of a generation. A guy who would sell his own granny for an extra vote. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QkRMWDzFcqA
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
I agree that things could change in the election campaign period.
But if things can change, that means they can change in the way you predict (RefUK supporters come home to the Tories), but they can also not change (RefUK gets its current polling level) or change in a different way (Tory vote collapses further).
UKIP managed 13% in 2015. It wasn't FPTP, but at the 2019 Euros, Reform UK (under its old name) got 31% while the Tories got 9%. You could have presented similar arguments as you do now for the Conservatives and Reform UK for the Progressive Conservative and Reform votes before the 1993 Canadian general election. Things are as they are, until they're not. There's no law of nature that says the Tories can't poll less than 30%.
It also remains sad how the world has completely ignored the recent ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, or indeed of Romany peoples from Kosovo not that long ago.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
As the great Tony Benn said there are signpost politicians and weathercock politicians
I support sign post ones who stick to their principles SKS fans are supporting the biggest cock of a generation. A guy who would sell his own granny for an extra vote. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QkRMWDzFcqA
Why don't you try actually watching Rachel's 8,000 word speech? Can't be bothered?
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
And still got 4 MEPs as it was PR even if they did not win a single parliamentary constituency and would have been wiped out with FPTP, while the Brexit Party got 29 MEPs with 30.5%.
If we had PR rather than FPTP the split on the right would be less of an issue as like in many European nations, New Zealand or Israel the Tories and Reform could form a coalition after the election (or the Tories and LDs could do a deal like in 2010 or Labour and the LDs or Labour and the Greens)
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
Also recent Guardian article suggests that the culture of impunity enjoyed by the special forces isn't universally loved. And Baldy Ben was very much regular army.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/12/britain-war-afghanistan-special-forces-sas-johnny-mercer ...UK special forces, including the SAS, claim a unique position in Britain’s defence and security structures. They are accountable only to two people: the defence secretary and the prime minister. This is unlike GCHQ, MI6 and MI5, which are all subject to some degree of scrutiny by the elected members of the intelligence and security committee of parliament (ISC) – composed of nine security-cleared members drawn from both houses of parliament. All of those organisations deal with matters at least as sensitive as the SAS and similar units. The ISC is a largely trusted and respected component of the national security framework. The army, navy and air force, including highly secret and sensitive strategic capabilities such as the nuclear deterrent, receive effective and often robust supervision from the House of Commons defence select committee...
As AI is a much discussed topic on the forum, here is an example of using the technology to its strengths: early detection of cancers. Much more interesting than the creation of derivative content IMV.
That is a poor article. It states, “the results of the evaluation have not yet been peer reviewed”. You shouldn’t be doing press before peer review.
The article focuses on cancer detection. However, the downsides of these systems are (a) high false positive rates, and (b) detecting cancers that are not clinically significant. The article also fails to mention that double reading, as is standard in the UK, avoids most of the problems of fatigue they talk about.
AI systems in screening mammography have been around for many years. They are getting better. They will probably be better than humans at some point. But that article is hype.
You're missing the real use of the system, which is for AI to replace the second human check in negative findings. The AI negative findings in that case have been 100% reliable in the study.
That alone would save a very large workload.
It doesn't say that in the BBC article. There's no peer reviewed publication to check. Earlier generation screening mammography had high false positive rates (see our review, https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/5173/ ).
No, it doesn't. But I listened to the interview with the NHS consultant on the Today program.
Plenty of caveats, as you say, but it sounded as though it's fairly likely to be in frontline use relatively soon.
Maybe but remember the hype around IBM's Watson AI that was going to revolutionise cancer treatment. IBM had tie-ups with some of America's (and therefore the world's) leading hospitals but after a few years it fell apart, for a number of reasons including (and this is off the top of my head):-
1. Statement of the obvious; even a 3rd year medical student can diagnose and treat that one, let alone experienced radiologists and oncologists. If AI spots the 1 in 1,000 case they've missed, then it is telling them what they already know the other 999 times, and that assumes AI never gets it wrong. 2. AI gets things wrong too. 3. Prescription of the impossible. We simply don't have a state of the art ACME Cancertron machine here in Bumfuck Alabama. 4. Unrepresentative data. You trained your AI on office-working New Yorkers but we're in a Chinese coal mining district.
And no doubt a bunch of other reasons I've forgotten.
Today’s AI is very different to anything IBM had back in the Palaeolithic
Incidentally, on the various definitions of AI, ML, etc - there are no firm definitions. Notoriously, this is an arena where meanings shift as technology changes and attitudes alter. “AI” USED to mean “Ooh the robot can think” now it means any usage of machines to do specific, limited cognitive tasks - play chess, predict weather. Some call this “narrow” AI
For the old-fashioned “OMG a thinking robot” - a machine that can “think” as well as almost any human in any task, the term is AGI. Artificial General Intelligence. This machine will breeze any Turing Test and we will wonder if it is sentient
Then there’s ASI. Artificial Super Intelligence - this is a machine vastly smarter than all humans put together. This machine will probably kill us before we can work out if it is sentient. Some people think ASI will arrive months, weeks, hours after AGI, as AGI learns to improve itself - recursively
Elon Musk predicts AGI by next year and ASI by 2029
Is it? He says he knows something earth-shattering but then doesn't tell us what it is.
My skim reading of it was that HMG knows something very interesting/horrible and is (unusually) getting their ducks in a row in preparation of it coming out. Or if one is feeling charitable, they are genuinely horrified by the evidence and feel some justice must be done.
Is it? He says he knows something earth-shattering but then doesn't tell us what it is.
Huh? He tells us that there are documents which have ensured that HMG is pursuing a formal enquiry into the actions of HMF whereas previously (where such documents haven't existed) they have not been so keen to do so.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk met in Florida last week, and the rumour on Twitter is that someone is about to underwrite the President’s appeal bond. Well who else can get their hands on half a billion in cash at short notice?
Could be Taylor Swift
Ha maybe, although the headlines about the billion-dollar tour should be taken with quite the pinch of salt. There’s an awful lot of costs and other people to be paid out of the gross ticket sales.
There’s also a lot of internet chatter about Swift and politics. She apparently said she voted for Biden last time, but is from very conservative Nashville.
The Dems have allegedly got private polling that says an endorsement from Swift is worth a couple of percentage points on the turnout from young women, and have reached out to her to campaign with Biden - but she’s worried about alienating a lot of her fans if she does that.
As Michael Jordan famously said when asked about politics, “Conservatives buy sneakers too”.
As AI is a much discussed topic on the forum, here is an example of using the technology to its strengths: early detection of cancers. Much more interesting than the creation of derivative content IMV.
That is a poor article. It states, “the results of the evaluation have not yet been peer reviewed”. You shouldn’t be doing press before peer review.
The article focuses on cancer detection. However, the downsides of these systems are (a) high false positive rates, and (b) detecting cancers that are not clinically significant. The article also fails to mention that double reading, as is standard in the UK, avoids most of the problems of fatigue they talk about.
AI systems in screening mammography have been around for many years. They are getting better. They will probably be better than humans at some point. But that article is hype.
You're missing the real use of the system, which is for AI to replace the second human check in negative findings. The AI negative findings in that case have been 100% reliable in the study.
That alone would save a very large workload.
It doesn't say that in the BBC article. There's no peer reviewed publication to check. Earlier generation screening mammography had high false positive rates (see our review, https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/5173/ ).
No, it doesn't. But I listened to the interview with the NHS consultant on the Today program.
Plenty of caveats, as you say, but it sounded as though it's fairly likely to be in frontline use relatively soon.
Maybe but remember the hype around IBM's Watson AI that was going to revolutionise cancer treatment. IBM had tie-ups with some of America's (and therefore the world's) leading hospitals but after a few years it fell apart, for a number of reasons including (and this is off the top of my head):-
1. Statement of the obvious; even a 3rd year medical student can diagnose and treat that one, let alone experienced radiologists and oncologists. If AI spots the 1 in 1,000 case they've missed, then it is telling them what they already know the other 999 times, and that assumes AI never gets it wrong. 2. AI gets things wrong too. 3. Prescription of the impossible. We simply don't have a state of the art ACME Cancertron machine here in Bumfuck Alabama. 4. Unrepresentative data. You trained your AI on office-working New Yorkers but we're in a Chinese coal mining district.
And no doubt a bunch of other reasons I've forgotten.
As I noted upthread, the point of this isn't really to find more cancers (and the few that it does don't come with a huge number of false positives) - it's to save the need for a second specialist reviewing the vast majority of scans (the negative ones).
Yep, which just shows again why the self-indulgent Tory MPs shouldn’t have got rid of Truss. At least she had ideas, Sunak is a size-too-small empty suit, who doesn’t appear to be able to actually do anything.
Sunaks problem is the classic one of over promising and under delivering. No wonder the voters aren't convinced by further promises.
One thing that Starmer and Reeves cannot be accused of is over-promising. On delivery we will have to wait and see.
Politicians don't have to make promises any more.
People just imagine that they have made them and then complain when these imaginary promises are not achieved.
While anything that they do achieve will be immediately forgotten or taken as granted.
The Tories promised to cut immigration, but put it up to an all time high. They promised to cut taxes and put them to an all time high. They promised to Level up and abandoned it. They promised growth and got a recession.
Voters aren't daft.
Aren't they? We canvassed one the other week who thought it was about time we got rid of Boris Johnson as PM and over the years I have come across some similar silly comments. Here are a couple:
a) In the days of the arguments over water meters someone seriously tried to argue with me that as a swimming pool owner he shouldn't be forced to have one as he was a minority person. The minority bit wasn't because he was black or gay but because he owned a swimming pool.
b) I was also told by a voter that he would never vote liberal because they had done so much damage. This was at the height of a Tory government, in a Tory county council, in a Tory borough that had 100% Tory representatives. I mean at least give us a chance to cock it up.
Lol! a) is especially good.
I once got a vote because I was the tallest candidate. Another voter wanted to make it illegal to speak a foreign language on British soil, but was voting for me out of habit despite my open ridicule of his idea. A third refused to vote for me because I wouldn't commit to reversing the smoking ban in pubs, which he claimed was detrimental to his medical condition.
I'm not sure that a higher proportion of voters are daft than politicians, though. We're just daft in a different way - better-informed but more obsessed.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
I'm not voting Labour. But we will all be massively relieved when they win.
If they ran on the policies you want they would lose. What you think isn't what most voters think.
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
BJO demonstrates everything that is wrong with the left - ideological purity is more important than the compromises needed to win over voters who disagree with you. The Tories understand this, Labour do not. Which is why the Tories win more than Labour.
In 2024 the Tory government is a long long way from their preferred ideological purity. But they still prefer to be in power doing the wrong things than being in opposition. Starmer thinks the same. BJO and his ilk want to be in permanent opposition.
As AI is a much discussed topic on the forum, here is an example of using the technology to its strengths: early detection of cancers. Much more interesting than the creation of derivative content IMV.
That is a poor article. It states, “the results of the evaluation have not yet been peer reviewed”. You shouldn’t be doing press before peer review.
The article focuses on cancer detection. However, the downsides of these systems are (a) high false positive rates, and (b) detecting cancers that are not clinically significant. The article also fails to mention that double reading, as is standard in the UK, avoids most of the problems of fatigue they talk about.
AI systems in screening mammography have been around for many years. They are getting better. They will probably be better than humans at some point. But that article is hype.
You're missing the real use of the system, which is for AI to replace the second human check in negative findings. The AI negative findings in that case have been 100% reliable in the study.
That alone would save a very large workload.
It doesn't say that in the BBC article. There's no peer reviewed publication to check. Earlier generation screening mammography had high false positive rates (see our review, https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/5173/ ).
No, it doesn't. But I listened to the interview with the NHS consultant on the Today program.
Plenty of caveats, as you say, but it sounded as though it's fairly likely to be in frontline use relatively soon.
Maybe but remember the hype around IBM's Watson AI that was going to revolutionise cancer treatment. IBM had tie-ups with some of America's (and therefore the world's) leading hospitals but after a few years it fell apart, for a number of reasons including (and this is off the top of my head):-
1. Statement of the obvious; even a 3rd year medical student can diagnose and treat that one, let alone experienced radiologists and oncologists. If AI spots the 1 in 1,000 case they've missed, then it is telling them what they already know the other 999 times, and that assumes AI never gets it wrong. 2. AI gets things wrong too. 3. Prescription of the impossible. We simply don't have a state of the art ACME Cancertron machine here in Bumfuck Alabama. 4. Unrepresentative data. You trained your AI on office-working New Yorkers but we're in a Chinese coal mining district.
And no doubt a bunch of other reasons I've forgotten.
Today’s AI is very different to anything IBM had back in the Palaeolithic
Incidentally, on the various definitions of AI, ML, etc - there are no firm definitions. Notoriously, this is an arena where meanings shift as technology changes and attitudes alter. “AI” USED to mean “Ooh the robot can think” now it means any usage of machines to do specific, limited cognitive tasks - play chess, predict weather. Some call this “narrow” AI
For the old-fashioned “OMG a thinking robot” - a machine that can “think” as well as almost any human in any task, the term is AGI. Artificial General Intelligence. This machine will breeze any Turing Test and we will wonder if it is sentient
Then there’s ASI. Artificial Super Intelligence - this is a machine vastly smarter than all humans put together. This machine will probably kill us before we can work out if it is sentient. Some people think ASI will arrive months, weeks, hours after AGI, as AGI learns to improve itself - recursively
Elon Musk predicts AGI by next year and ASI by 2029
To think that it was 27 years ago, roughly a single generation, that IBM’s Deep Blue mainframe managed to beat Kasparov at chess. Now your phone can play at close to Grand Master level. The progress towards AGI will be similarly exponential in the coming years.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
I'm not voting Labour. But we will all be massively relieved when they win.
If they ran on the policies you want they would lose. What you think isn't what most voters think.
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
BJO demonstrates everything that is wrong with the left - ideological purity is more important than the compromises needed to win over voters who disagree with you. The Tories understand this, Labour do not. Which is why the Tories win more than Labour.
In 2024 the Tory government is a long long way from their preferred ideological purity. But they still prefer to be in power doing the wrong things than being in opposition. Starmer thinks the same. BJO and his ilk want to be in permanent opposition.
Indeed, and more than that, when the Shadow Chancellor spends an hour, and 8,000 words, outlining her philosophy and ideas, the likes of @bigjohnowls ignore her, preferring to spam the site with childish nonsense instead.
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
If anyone needs a primer on A.I. and what it means and where it’s going, you honestly can’t do better than this Waitbutwhy blogpost, in two parts, by Tim Urban. It’s marvellously lucid
It’s also incredibly prescient. Urban wrote this in 2015 - almost a decade ago - yet it has not dated. Everything he says and predicts is bang on - except that maybe AGI is arriving a few years before his timeline (but he wrote this before the advent of GPTs)
He’s also wise to the profundity of all this:
“The reason this post took three weeks to finish is that as I dug into research on Artificial Intelligence, I could not believe what I was reading.
“It hit me pretty quickly that what’s happening in the world of AI is not just an important topic, but by far THE most important topic for our future. So I wanted to learn as much as I could about it, and once I did that, I wanted to make sure I wrote a post that really explained this whole situation and why it matters so much.”
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
And still got 4 MEPs as it was PR even if they did not win a single parliamentary constituency and would have been wiped out with FPTP, while the Brexit Party got 29 MEPs with 30.5%.
If we had PR rather than FPTP the split on the right would be less of an issue as like in many European nations, New Zealand or Israel the Tories and Reform could form a coalition after the election (or the Tories and LDs could do a deal like in 2010 or Labour and the LDs or Labour and the Greens)
But we don’t, because it has been Conservative Party policy to oppose it.
Also recent Guardian article suggests that the culture of impunity enjoyed by the special forces isn't universally loved. And Baldy Ben was very much regular army.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/12/britain-war-afghanistan-special-forces-sas-johnny-mercer ...UK special forces, including the SAS, claim a unique position in Britain’s defence and security structures. They are accountable only to two people: the defence secretary and the prime minister. This is unlike GCHQ, MI6 and MI5, which are all subject to some degree of scrutiny by the elected members of the intelligence and security committee of parliament (ISC) – composed of nine security-cleared members drawn from both houses of parliament. All of those organisations deal with matters at least as sensitive as the SAS and similar units. The ISC is a largely trusted and respected component of the national security framework. The army, navy and air force, including highly secret and sensitive strategic capabilities such as the nuclear deterrent, receive effective and often robust supervision from the House of Commons defence select committee...
I don't think that is quite correct. The Super Army Soldiers report to Commander, UKSF who reports to Commander, SC who reports to CDS. So it's not like they are the personal Tonton Macoute of Shappsie, his head hamster and Big Rish as the article implies.
The "Regiment" does need reform and more oversight though - if disbanding is politically impossible.
Is it? He says he knows something earth-shattering but then doesn't tell us what it is.
Huh? He tells us that there are documents which have ensured that HMG is pursuing a formal enquiry into the actions of HMF whereas previously (where such documents haven't existed) they have not been so keen to do so.
Says a lot about a lot.
There is a lot of teasing that leads up to: And now this inquiry has received some very interesting evidence from an unexpected source, which I am now writing about for Prospect.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk met in Florida last week, and the rumour on Twitter is that someone is about to underwrite the President’s appeal bond. Well who else can get their hands on half a billion in cash at short notice?
Could be Taylor Swift
Ha maybe, although the headlines about the billion-dollar tour should be taken with quite the pinch of salt. There’s an awful lot of costs and other people to be paid out of the gross ticket sales.
There’s also a lot of internet chatter about Swift and politics. She apparently said she voted for Biden last time, but is from very conservative Nashville.
The Dems have allegedly got private polling that says an endorsement from Swift is worth a couple of percentage points on the turnout from young women, and have reached out to her to campaign with Biden - but she’s worried about alienating a lot of her fans if she does that.
As Michael Jordan famously said when asked about politics, “Conservatives buy sneakers too”.
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
Lifting ban on onshore wind farms is an easy way of bringing down energy bills.
I also feel optimistic about state-led housebuilding rather than relying on private developers.
Have they not said they will not put any money into the latter?
And is the taxpayer putting funds into the former but the PFI partners will take all the gain.
Thanks at least for trying
People like Anabobazina just prefer identical policies with a red tie is all I can conclude due to their inability to explain what they think will be better in more substantive ways
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
Lifting ban on onshore wind farms is an easy way of bringing down energy bills.
I also feel optimistic about state-led housebuilding rather than relying on private developers.
Have they not said they will not put any money into the latter?
And is the taxpayer putting funds into the former but the PFI partners will take all the gain.
Thanks at least for trying
People like Anabobazina just prefer identical policies with a red tie is all I can conclude due to their inability to explain what they think will be better in more substantive ways
Again, wilfully ignorant:
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
Lifting ban on onshore wind farms is an easy way of bringing down energy bills.
I also feel optimistic about state-led housebuilding rather than relying on private developers.
Have they not said they will not put any money into the latter?
And is the taxpayer putting funds into the former but the PFI partners will take all the gain.
Thanks at least for trying
People like Anabobazina just prefer identical policies with a red tie is all I can conclude due to their inability to explain what they think will be better in more substantive ways
Again, wilfully ignorant:
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
Mr. Sandpit, I've watched a few YouTube vids on economics/politics that covered the German situation. So, pinch of salt, but apparently German manufacturing might be in trouble due to high costs (energy especially), difficulty getting Germans or migrants to learn at the high degree of skill needed for many jobs, and competition as China and others move into more high end manufacturing/engineering. Some German firms may try licensing out their brands, capitalising on excellent reputations, but the downside is the jobs will be elsewhere.
There's one other big factor: Germany's biggest export is not cars, but capital equipment. That is, machines that make things. If you want to build a new production line, then the conveyor belts, the machines that stamp the metal, etc, well, the kit is almost all German,
This made Germany a massive beneficiary of China's economic boom. You turn up at any factory in Shenzen or Guangdou, and they kit is all new, and is all German.
But that phase of China's growth is coming to an end. And while they have growing markets in Vietman and the like, they are struggling with falling demand from China.
Now, it's possible that the reindustrialisation of the US (and heck, maybe even the UK) means that demand will spring up from the West. But right now, their biggest export business is in the toilet. (And to which one might add that their car industry - Porsche excepted - doesn't look hot either,)
That being said, Germany does have one trick up their sleave: they under-consume. The German government could - and should - implement measures to reduce the domestic savings rate and push up consumption. That would allow the drop in export demand to be made up by domestic demand.
I am amazed, nay AMAZED, that the ombudsman’s decision that WASPI women are due some compensation hasn’t set off a fusillade of PB harrumphing, the subject used to be such a reliable trigger point.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
I am amazed, nay AMAZED, that the ombudsman’s decision that WASPI women are due some compensation hasn’t set off a fusillade of PB harrumphing, the subject used to be such a reliable trigger point.
What’s the world coming to?
It's not really a decision, is it? Only a recommendation. Which the government have already said they will pay no attention to.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
There seems to be an awful lot of ‘haw haw, who cares about little Owen and his membership card!’ It’s almost like…they care.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
As none of my detractors have been able to tell us what their favourite SKS policy they are looking forward to them implementing.
Perhaps it's too difficult a question so I give you a multiple choice options
a) Austerity on stilts
b) Further privatisation of the NHS to please the donors.
c) The promise not to make the well off pay more tax
d) A kind of PFI for energy with the taxpayer taking all the risks and the private sector taking all the rewards
Feel free to add your own policy
I'm not voting Labour. But we will all be massively relieved when they win.
If they ran on the policies you want they would lose. What you think isn't what most voters think.
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
BJO demonstrates everything that is wrong with the left - ideological purity is more important than the compromises needed to win over voters who disagree with you. The Tories understand this, Labour do not. Which is why the Tories win more than Labour.
In 2024 the Tory government is a long long way from their preferred ideological purity. But they still prefer to be in power doing the wrong things than being in opposition. Starmer thinks the same. BJO and his ilk want to be in permanent opposition.
Up to a point.
I'd say that Conservatives understood that power is preferable to opposition and so compromise is better than purity. But that understanding has got lost, replaced by an attempt to re-enact a cartoon version of Thatcher, who was smarter and subtler than her cosplayers today.
And that's why 2015 onwards happend. The compromises of coalition sent the party increasingly potty.
I am amazed, nay AMAZED, that the ombudsman’s decision that WASPI women are due some compensation hasn’t set off a fusillade of PB harrumphing, the subject used to be such a reliable trigger point.
What’s the world coming to?
Maybe because the decision pleases no-one in fact. For those who think the WASPI women have no case (I am one, and my family was directly adversely affected by the change), the finding is flawed. For those who think an injustice has really been done (wrongly in my view) the suggested compensation is derisory.
No doubt it's a vast improvement on the human-generated bilge that ruined the platform a decade ago.
It’s definitely funnier. I love the “shrimp Jesus”. And all the fake wildlife photos
However it is also dystopian
1. It turns old people into clapping seals, entertained by the gaudy A.I. colours
2. Quite soon NO ONE will be able to discern A.I. images and audio from reality. A deadly dose of potential AI will lurk in everything, like fentanyl in American street drugs. With similar effects
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate Jones go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
There seems to be an awful lot of ‘haw haw, who cares about little Owen and his membership card!’ It’s almost like…they care.
Oh people care. They're just very happy about it given Jones' behaviour over the past few years.
I am amazed, nay AMAZED, that the ombudsman’s decision that WASPI women are due some compensation hasn’t set off a fusillade of PB harrumphing, the subject used to be such a reliable trigger point.
Mr. Divvie, the WASPI types are the equivalent of Augustine: "Make us equal, but not yet."
This isn't unusual, though. When feminists lambast the sexism of the boardroom because fewer than half of executives are female, they tend to forget to mention workplace deaths, homeless stats, or figures for women in sewage plants and the like. For some, the 'quest for equality' is more about cherrypicking the good bits.
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
That’s wasn’t a General Election. Lord Hague beat Blair in Euro elections. How did he do in the GE a year later?
You have to see GE is different. Why? 2 reasons. Every GE campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns comes under pressure. FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere. Love it or hate it, you can’t deny FPTP does this. And Voters know how serious it is getting a government they are painfully stuck with for 5 years, so most will use their vote wisely not waste it as they currently telling pollsters they will do.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
A Conservative parliamentary candidate said: "I congratulate Dan on going from being guaranteed to lose because of his mediocrity, to being doubly guaranteed to lose because of his untrustworthiness."
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
And still got 4 MEPs as it was PR even if they did not win a single parliamentary constituency and would have been wiped out with FPTP, while the Brexit Party got 29 MEPs with 30.5%.
If we had PR rather than FPTP the split on the right would be less of an issue as like in many European nations, New Zealand or Israel the Tories and Reform could form a coalition after the election (or the Tories and LDs could do a deal like in 2010 or Labour and the LDs or Labour and the Greens)
But we don’t, because it has been Conservative Party policy to oppose it.
No. You will find HY is right on this. What PR demonstrates is its the same voters in the same room, but with PR they can go into different corners, based on preferring the different corner, but with FPTP they all pack into one corner with just 1 or 2 in other corners, because to do it any other way would be utterly stupid, and let’s not presume voters are stupid, like this header does.
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
It’s strange that people attempt to argue that electing Boris as leader destroyed the Conservative Party, given that 8.8% score in the 2019 Euros, and the fact they are pretty much where they were then in current VI polls.
I think the football equivalent world be a manager taking over a team that looked certain for relegation, having just been given a hiding from a minnow in the cup, and winning the league only to be sacked when they were in sixth place after 15 games the following season (after the manager was found to have been gambling on football and facing a suspension)
Now they’re on to their third manager of the season, bottom of the table again… and the fans want the boss who gave them the good times back
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
There seems to be an awful lot of ‘haw haw, who cares about little Owen and his membership card!’ It’s almost like…they care.
That is the conundrum with Owen Jones. An irrelevant extremist grifter yet at the same time threatening Labour's prospects with his tiresome dissent.
I'd rather he was in the party, trying to pull it towards socialism, and I hope the reasons he gives for leaving (red tories) are proved wrong. I don't like all of those 'full fat' leftist characters who gathered around Jez by any means, there's some horrors in there, but I do like him.
So the election is shaping up to be a Tory party offering Thatcherism and a Labour Party offering Thatcherism. What the people need is an end to Thatcherism when you look at Thatcherism it’s the reason why the country is in the mess it is. We need an alternative to Thatcherism.
Indeed. But the Ludicrous Owls will just ignore you.
Actions speak far louder than words and every action is to ape the Tories
What is your favourite SKS policy that you are looking forward to him implementing?
Did you even watch Rachel's speech on Tuesday?
God no.
What do you think I am a masochist.
In the same way I wouldn't watch the other Tories I wouldn't be interested in the woman planning massive austerity when she become Chancellor
As I thought. You are a stubborn irritant who takes pride in his ignorance.
Whereas you can't state one single policy that will make life better under SKS and austerity Reeves.
I mean why can't you see austerity Reeves is planning austerity that makes Osborne look like a Socialist.
You are a fucking lightweight don't engage if you can't string 2 words together explaining the benefits of SKS Lab
You see that? 4 words why your brand of socialism never wins.
You hate Starmer and all he stands for. We get that. But as you refuse to even engage with other voters you will never understand why. "Starmer isn't popular" you will be saying as he wins a mega-landslide.
Its as funny as HY posting to try and claim positives about their forecasted reduction to 38 seats. What is wrong with you? This is politics - you either find a consensus or you lose. You are happy losing and Labour are not - is it that hard to understand?
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
Offtopic: watching a neighbour (a few houses away) 're-doing' their drive. They're trying to sell the house and have ripped up the worn concrete and have dumped a few tons of topsoil with the odd bit of brick in it, covered with a membrane and now covering that with I guess 50mm or so of decorative gravel. Guess it will last long enough to sell the house, as long as no potential buyers try to park on it
Mr. Divvie, the WASPI types are the equivalent of Augustine: "Make us equal, but not yet."
This isn't unusual, though. When feminists lambast the sexism of the boardroom because fewer than half of executives are female, they tend to forget to mention workplace deaths, homeless stats, or figures for women in sewage plants and the like. For some, the 'quest for equality' is more about cherrypicking the good bits.
You've not been paying attention and are just posting a vaguely-related rant, and I say that as someone who is often critical of politicians' "feminism for posh people" which worries about women in the boardroom rather than the needs of women on the shop floor.
On Topic. No. I’m Not convinced by this analysis at all.
I’m of the alternate analysis, until we have had 3 weeks of an election campaign proper, headers like this is merely guesswork with high probability of being very wrong.
The Conservative Party has not polled less than 30% at an election for a very long time, and currently have an eighty seat majority. Anything above 3% Ref on any poll is soft and could come home to the Conservatives on election day, particularly in May or June with the good economic mood music at its sweetest, and the boat problem being whackamoled.
You can be completely wrong on this TSE, because the missing bit in the header is how FPTP trumps everything, like a magic wand that quickly changes everything previously suspected of peoples thoughts and what they vowed to do. Voters give a salute to pollsters and focus groups without realising just how they will later change their minds and desert.
A year ago mood music is gloom, a day in May or June 2024 it can optimistic, a vibe of triumph and alls going to go well from here, five months later it can be gloom and struggle again - does the analysis above take this into account or think it plays a big part at all? Well I think it does 🫡
The Tory Party polled 8.8% in a nationwide election just under 5 years ago.
It’s strange that people attempt to argue that electing Boris as leader destroyed the Conservative Party, given that 8.8% score in the 2019 Euros, and the fact they are pretty much where they were then in current VI polls.
I think the football equivalent world be a manager taking over a team that looked certain for relegation, having just been given a hiding from a minnow in the cup, and winning the league only to be sacked when they were in sixth place after 15 games the following season (after the manager was found to have been gambling on football and facing a suspension)
Now they’re on to their third manager of the season, bottom of the table again… and the fans want the boss who gave them the good times back
He 'lost the dressing room' though, remember - ie there weren't enough people prepared to work with him to form a government.
Manager loses the dressing room, he has to go. That's football gospel.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
There seems to be an awful lot of ‘haw haw, who cares about little Owen and his membership card!’ It’s almost like…they care.
That is the conundrum with Owen Jones. An irrelevant extremist grifter yet at the same time threatening Labour's prospects with his tiresome dissent.
I'd rather he was in the party, trying to pull it towards socialism, and I hope the reasons he gives for leaving (red tories) are proved wrong. I don't like all of those 'full fat' leftist characters who gathered around Jez by any means, there's some horrors in there, but I do like him.
Dunno. I suspect:
Average voter won't notice
Some OJ haters will see it as a positive/reason to risk Labour (but most OJ haters are probably not Lab candidate voters anyway)
Some OJ fans will follow (but most of them probably not very enthusiastic about Starmer anyway)
It feels pretty marginal to me. What's his big demographic? Right-on Guardian readers - such as myself, but even I am not influenced by OJ, although I find him interesting? We're either going to dutifully hold our noses and vote Starmer, do it enthusiastically or waste our vote on the Lib Dems/Greens like usual. Students, still? Or is he too old for that now? But then, is there going to be a big student vote for Lab anyway? The lazy feckers () probably won't bother to vote and if they do it'll be Green or SWP anyway?
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
That's quite fair, coming from you. I won't take issue.
BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
A Conservative parliamentary candidate said: "I congratulate Dan on going from being guaranteed to lose because of his mediocrity, to being doubly guaranteed to lose because of his untrustworthiness."
Oof.
Amusingly, Reform UK’s candidate from last time is also standing this time, but as an independent.
I was going to vote Labour if they kept their promise to bring in an assumed right of access/right to roam legislation similar to Scotland. They've knocked that on the head ( I guess some landed gentry donor didn't like the idea) so they can get stuffed. I'll vote Green as was my original intention. A wasted vote, definitely but round here it'll make no difference.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
There seems to be an awful lot of ‘haw haw, who cares about little Owen and his membership card!’ It’s almost like…they care.
That is the conundrum with Owen Jones. An irrelevant extremist grifter yet at the same time threatening Labour's prospects with his tiresome dissent.
I'd rather he was in the party, trying to pull it towards socialism, and I hope the reasons he gives for leaving (red tories) are proved wrong. I don't like all of those 'full fat' leftist characters who gathered around Jez by any means, there's some horrors in there, but I do like him.
Dunno. I suspect:
Average voter won't notice
Some OJ haters will see it as a positive/reason to risk Labour (but most OJ haters are probably not Lab candidate voters anyway)
Some OJ fans will follow (but most of them probably not very enthusiastic about Starmer anyway)
It feels pretty marginal to me. What's his big demographic? Right-on Guardian readers - such as myself, but even I am not influenced by OJ, although I find him interesting? We're either going to dutifully hold our noses and vote Starmer, do it enthusiastically or waste our vote on the Lib Dems/Greens like usual. Students, still? Or is he too old for that now? But then, is there going to be a big student vote for Lab anyway? The lazy feckers () probably won't bother to vote and if they do it'll be Green or SWP anyway?
Raising money for the Greens in Brighton and Bristol, and a handful of Socialist Campaign Group MPs, will make it easier for Owen Jones to recommend a "tactical vote" for Labour everywhere else.
This is actually part of the whole campaigning logic that will lead to an effective squeeze of the Green vote outside of a small handful of seats.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
That's quite fair, coming from you. I won't take issue.
BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
Gosh I'm a free thinking, unpredictable unit.
Nick Palmer could be another. I mean, he seems to like everyone.
In light of the Owen news it's interesting that long standing Labour leftie Paul Mason has been on a different journey. Here he is full throated behind the current leadership:
"Labour's @RachelReevesMP spells out her vision for workers rights, at the heart of a state-directed green growth strategy. Never been a better time to join Labour. ✊ My five takeaways from the Mais Lecture..."
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
That's quite fair, coming from you. I won't take issue.
BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
Gosh I'm a free thinking, unpredictable unit.
You’re mad, aren’t you? Just MAD. A crazy fucker on life’s crystal meth, one minute playing golf, the next minute playing golf. Then - just three years later - you’re haring off to Bruges for a short city break or enjoying some foot-tapping live music in the open air terrace-bars of Lanzarote
It was bad already, but in the last few months people suddenly seem willing to give Reform a shot.
That may be an illusion, and Reform do nowhere near as well in a GE, but it surely shows discontent and, critically, that scaring people about a Labour government probably won't work very well. Too many Tories themselves expect and are OK with losing right now.
At this point the Tories would take a 1997 result if it was offered. They genuinely could do much worse.
Looks increasingly like it will take a generation to recover from making Truss the PM.
According to austerity Reeves they will inherit the worst position since WW2
Remind me did the incoming Labour Government decide austerity was the answer, or the complete opposite
It didn't stop that government from creating the NHS and modern welfare state, nor rearing for the Cold War with an Atomic programme.
Considering the economic conditions the Attlee government was remarkeable.
And yet, for all that, the 1945 landslide melted away with remarkable speed.
If anyone knew a bit about the politics of how and why that happened it could make for an interesting thread header.
Labour made several key mistakes:
1) prioritised building factories over permanent replacement housing, leaving people living in essentially Nissen huts 2) Didn't relegate Shinwell and Bevan, who went round abusing potential voters as 'not worth two hoots or a Tinker's cuss' and 'lower than vermin' to Ambassadors to Outer Mongolia 3) Pushed austerity hard and cleverly linked it to paying for welfare programmes (although that was actually paid for by Marshall Aid) 4) Failed to bring through younger ministers so the cabinet looked like refugees from the 2024 Presidential election.
They also faced some severe headwinds:
5) Due to poor harvests, rationing actually got stricter, making people think Labour were the party of hunger and mismanagement 6) Nationalisation was highly bureaucratic and made it difficult to order necessities, never mind luxuries (for example, failing to order coal by specific dates meant you couldn't get any). 7) Inflation due to currency devaluation 9) On top of this, dealing with major conflicts in Malaya, Greece etc and finally in Korea.
But if I was to pick one thing that really cost Labour, it was that they stupidly - and in many cases actually spitefully - gave goodies to working class voters and launched financial and political attacks on everyone without releasing that under the FPTP system that they brought to its current state you can't win elections on solely working class votes. They're too concentrated in particular seats. You need to appeal to a wider spectrum.
In 1951 weren't more than 60% of voters working class, so not a daft strategy?
Also I think that 1951 was both the highest percentage share and highest number of votes ever for the Labour Party, but defeated because of the collapse of 3rd party votes (mostly Liberal). Labour won the popular vote over the Conservatives but lost seats under FPTP.
In retrospect Attlee had a majority, albeit slim and didn't need to call the election yet.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
That's quite fair, coming from you. I won't take issue.
BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
Gosh I'm a free thinking, unpredictable unit.
Nick Palmer could be another. I mean, he seems to like everyone.
Oh No, bad news for SKS. Owen Jones has quit Labour after 24 years.
expect a polling slump.
I like and rate OJ and I'm sorry to hear this. IMO he should have waited to see what Labour do in government. If he's right that in office they end up changing nothing of substance in favour of working people, and worse not even trying, I'll be quitting the party too (far more serious for SKS than Owen leaving) but there's no way I'm going to pretend there's enough evidence to conclude that now. I'll leave this spooky 'crystal balling' to his sour grapes critics of left and right - most of whom are pissed off purely because he's winning.
Surely no one can rate Jones these days? He's really gone off the end of the pier. Last seen questioning if Hamas were rapists as he didn't actually get to see the gory act. He revealed who he was back in 2018 when his defence of laying a wreath for brutal terrorists was that 'no one was killed' by it. That's not to mention his attitude towards women who disagree with him. A textbook misogynist. Labour is so much better off without someone whose morals long ago went into the toilet due to twisted ideological obsessions.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
I've followed his output for a long time (books, press, internet, tv) and found it (still do) principled, intelligent and well-expressed. Not all of it but mostly. I think it's mainly his effectiveness as a polemicist, and his uppity urban way of speaking, that irritates people who don't share his (admittedly quite hard left) politics.
I also find that lots of those who hate him go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
I admire Jones professionally - he’s a good writer, he’s sharp and plausible on TV - I’ve seen him get the better of Andrew Neil, no easy thing
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
That's quite fair, coming from you. I won't take issue.
BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
Can I just say thanks to the PBer who pointed me to the Edenic Okanagan valley, in British Colombia, with its wineries, orchards, art galleries, and sunny microclimate
It triggered my curiosity so I did a bit of research… and now the Gazette is sending me there in the summer
Comments
1. Statement of the obvious; even a 3rd year medical student can diagnose and treat that one, let alone experienced radiologists and oncologists. If AI spots the 1 in 1,000 case they've missed, then it is telling them what they already know the other 999 times, and that assumes AI never gets it wrong.
2. AI gets things wrong too.
3. Prescription of the impossible. We simply don't have a state of the art ACME Cancertron machine here in Bumfuck Alabama.
4. Unrepresentative data. You trained your AI on office-working New Yorkers but we're in a Chinese coal mining district.
And no doubt a bunch of other reasons I've forgotten.
BJO please explain.
a) In the days of the arguments over water meters someone seriously tried to argue with me that as a swimming pool owner he shouldn't be forced to have one as he was a minority person. The minority bit wasn't because he was black or gay but because he owned a swimming pool.
b) I was also told by a voter that he would never vote liberal because they had done so much damage. This was at the height of a Tory government, in a Tory county council, in a Tory borough that had 100% Tory representatives. I mean at least give us a chance to cock it up.
Kudos due @MarqueeMark
If they ran on the policies you want they would lose. What you think isn't what most voters think.
I support sign post ones who stick to their principles SKS fans are supporting the biggest cock of a generation. A guy who would sell his own granny for an extra vote.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QkRMWDzFcqA
But if things can change, that means they can change in the way you predict (RefUK supporters come home to the Tories), but they can also not change (RefUK gets its current polling level) or change in a different way (Tory vote collapses further).
UKIP managed 13% in 2015. It wasn't FPTP, but at the 2019 Euros, Reform UK (under its old name) got 31% while the Tories got 9%. You could have presented similar arguments as you do now for the Conservatives and Reform UK for the Progressive Conservative and Reform votes before the 1993 Canadian general election. Things are as they are, until they're not. There's no law of nature that says the Tories can't poll less than 30%.
It also remains sad how the world has completely ignored the recent ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, or indeed of Romany peoples from Kosovo not that long ago.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
If we had PR rather than FPTP the split on the right would be less of an issue as like in many European nations, New Zealand or Israel the Tories and Reform could form a coalition after the election (or the Tories and LDs could do a deal like in 2010 or Labour and the LDs or Labour and the Greens)
And Baldy Ben was very much regular army.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/12/britain-war-afghanistan-special-forces-sas-johnny-mercer
...UK special forces, including the SAS, claim a unique position in Britain’s defence and security structures. They are accountable only to two people: the defence secretary and the prime minister. This is unlike GCHQ, MI6 and MI5, which are all subject to some degree of scrutiny by the elected members of the intelligence and security committee of parliament (ISC) – composed of nine security-cleared members drawn from both houses of parliament. All of those organisations deal with matters at least as sensitive as the SAS and similar units. The ISC is a largely trusted and respected component of the national security framework. The army, navy and air force, including highly secret and sensitive strategic capabilities such as the nuclear deterrent, receive effective and often robust supervision from the House of Commons defence select committee...
Incidentally, on the various definitions of AI, ML, etc - there are no firm definitions. Notoriously, this is an arena where meanings shift as technology changes and attitudes alter. “AI” USED to mean “Ooh the robot can think” now it means any usage of machines to do specific, limited cognitive tasks - play chess, predict weather. Some call this “narrow” AI
For the old-fashioned “OMG a thinking robot” - a machine that can “think” as well as almost any human in any task, the term is AGI. Artificial General Intelligence. This machine will breeze any Turing Test and we will wonder if it is sentient
Then there’s ASI. Artificial Super Intelligence - this is a machine vastly smarter than all humans put together. This machine will probably kill us before we can work out if it is sentient. Some people think ASI will arrive months, weeks, hours after AGI, as AGI learns to improve itself - recursively
Elon Musk predicts AGI by next year and ASI by 2029
Or if one is feeling charitable, they are genuinely horrified by the evidence and feel some justice must be done.
Says a lot about a lot.
There’s also a lot of internet chatter about Swift and politics. She apparently said she voted for Biden last time, but is from very conservative Nashville.
The Dems have allegedly got private polling that says an endorsement from Swift is worth a couple of percentage points on the turnout from young women, and have reached out to her to campaign with Biden - but she’s worried about alienating a lot of her fans if she does that.
As Michael Jordan famously said when asked about politics, “Conservatives buy sneakers too”.
That would be a very large efficiency gain.
I once got a vote because I was the tallest candidate. Another voter wanted to make it illegal to speak a foreign language on British soil, but was voting for me out of habit despite my open ridicule of his idea. A third refused to vote for me because I wouldn't commit to reversing the smoking ban in pubs, which he claimed was detrimental to his medical condition.
I'm not sure that a higher proportion of voters are daft than politicians, though. We're just daft in a different way - better-informed but more obsessed.
In 2024 the Tory government is a long long way from their preferred ideological purity. But they still prefer to be in power doing the wrong things than being in opposition. Starmer thinks the same. BJO and his ilk want to be in permanent opposition.
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
Read both parts
It’s also incredibly prescient. Urban wrote this in 2015 - almost a decade ago - yet it has not dated. Everything he says and predicts is bang on - except that maybe AGI is arriving a few years before his timeline (but he wrote this before the advent of GPTs)
He’s also wise to the profundity of all this:
“The reason this post took three weeks to finish is that as I dug into research on Artificial Intelligence, I could not believe what I was reading.
“It hit me pretty quickly that what’s happening in the world of AI is not just an important topic, but by far THE most important topic for our future. So I wanted to learn as much as I could about it, and once I did that, I wanted to make sure I wrote a post that really explained this whole situation and why it matters so much.”
I also feel optimistic about state-led housebuilding rather than relying on private developers.
The "Regiment" does need reform and more oversight though - if disbanding is politically impossible.
What do you think I am a masochist.
In the same way I wouldn't watch the other Tories I wouldn't be interested in the woman planning massive austerity when she become Chancellor
The modern Republican Party has nothing to offer a self-made businesswoman from Nashville, which is to their shame.
2026 FIFA World Cup in US could be first to see ML models play a part... and you thought video referees were crap
https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/20/googles_deepmind_football/
DeepMind has been working with Liverpool.
https://youtu.be/0yYdUWsXAfs?si=j-qYY7NS9EWmqYZs&t=405
And is the taxpayer putting funds into the former but the PFI partners will take all the gain.
Thanks at least for trying
People like Anabobazina just prefer identical policies with a red tie is all I can conclude due to their inability to explain what they think will be better in more substantive ways
And they have some great ideas. But they aren't going to publish the detail as the unimaginative Tories will simply nick them.
Lots of good stuff coming on new investment fiscal rules, green capital and workers' rights (and, thus, enhanced labour market liquidity).
“briefly looked at my mom’s facebook and it’s all AI, like every single post, and she has no idea, it’s a complete wasteland”
https://x.com/alsikkantv/status/1770214218395976007?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Mad
I mean why can't you see austerity Reeves is planning austerity that makes Osborne look like a Socialist.
You are a fucking lightweight don't engage if you can't string 2 words together explaining the benefits of SKS Lab
Efficiency improves with scale.
If Owen's leaving, it's a sign Labour is doing something right and isn't as tolerant of the despicable, genuinely troubling side of the far left that Jones has long been a cheerleader for.
This made Germany a massive beneficiary of China's economic boom. You turn up at any factory in Shenzen or Guangdou, and they kit is all new, and is all German.
But that phase of China's growth is coming to an end. And while they have growing markets in Vietman and the like, they are struggling with falling demand from China.
Now, it's possible that the reindustrialisation of the US (and heck, maybe even the UK) means that demand will spring up from the West. But right now, their biggest export business is in the toilet. (And to which one might add that their car industry - Porsche excepted - doesn't look hot either,)
That being said, Germany does have one trick up their sleave: they under-consume. The German government could - and should - implement measures to reduce the domestic savings rate and push up consumption. That would allow the drop in export demand to be made up by domestic demand.
What’s the world coming to?
ETA scooped by Theuniondivvie!
I'd say that Conservatives understood that power is preferable to opposition and so compromise is better than purity. But that understanding has got lost, replaced by an attempt to re-enact a cartoon version of Thatcher, who was smarter and subtler than her cosplayers today.
And that's why 2015 onwards happend. The compromises of coalition sent the party increasingly potty.
However it is also dystopian
1. It turns old people into clapping seals, entertained by the gaudy A.I. colours
2. Quite soon NO ONE will be able to discern A.I. images and audio from reality. A deadly dose of potential AI will lurk in everything, like fentanyl in American street drugs. With similar effects
I also find that lots of those who hate Jones go by things that others who hate him say about him rather than by the source material of what he's actually said and written. The risible misogyny charge is a prime example.
A great @_tomscotson scoop before the news was confirmed
The Tory candidate in the Great Manchester mayoral contest has defected to Reform
This isn't unusual, though. When feminists lambast the sexism of the boardroom because fewer than half of executives are female, they tend to forget to mention workplace deaths, homeless stats, or figures for women in sewage plants and the like. For some, the 'quest for equality' is more about cherrypicking the good bits.
You have to see GE is different. Why? 2 reasons. Every GE campaign month becomes a forced choice election, and support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns comes under pressure. FPTP in large constituency’s reduces voter option to just 2 candidates who can win the seat - its Conservative or Starmer or waste your vote nearly everywhere. Love it or hate it, you can’t deny FPTP does this. And Voters know how serious it is getting a government they are painfully stuck with for 5 years, so most will use their vote wisely not waste it as they currently telling pollsters they will do.
I detest his politics obvs but then I detest ALL left wing politics so it makes no difference; indeed I sometimes prefer the honest hardcore socialism to the mimsy Woke social democratic pap - the stuff that we will get from Starmer
And sometimes he makes really good points that others won’t out of cowardice or careerism. He’s like a left wing version of Douglas Murray
@zoe_grunewald
A Conservative parliamentary candidate said: "I congratulate Dan on going from being guaranteed to lose because of his mediocrity, to being doubly guaranteed to lose because of his untrustworthiness."
Oof.
I think the football equivalent world be a manager taking over a team that looked certain for
relegation, having just been given a hiding from a minnow in the cup, and winning the league only to be sacked when they were in sixth place after 15 games the following season (after the manager was found to have been gambling on football and facing a suspension)
Now they’re on to their third manager of the season, bottom of the table again… and the fans want the boss who gave them the good times back
I'd rather he was in the party, trying to pull it towards socialism, and I hope the reasons he gives for leaving (red tories) are proved wrong. I don't like all of those 'full fat' leftist characters who gathered around Jez by any means, there's some horrors in there, but I do like him.
You hate Starmer and all he stands for. We get that. But as you refuse to even engage with other voters you will never understand why. "Starmer isn't popular" you will be saying as he wins a mega-landslide.
Its as funny as HY posting to try and claim positives about their forecasted reduction to 38 seats. What is wrong with you? This is politics - you either find a consensus or you lose. You are happy losing and Labour are not - is it that hard to understand?
And it's not just an excuse for a Ricky Gervais clip (or is it?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx4LeZaIJNA
Manager loses the dressing room, he has to go. That's football gospel.
- Average voter won't notice
- Some OJ haters will see it as a positive/reason to risk Labour (but most OJ haters are probably not Lab candidate voters anyway)
- Some OJ fans will follow (but most of them probably not very enthusiastic about Starmer anyway)
It feels pretty marginal to me. What's his big demographic? Right-on Guardian readers - such as myself, but even I am not influenced by OJ, although I find him interesting? We're either going to dutifully hold our noses and vote Starmer, do it enthusiastically or waste our vote on the Lib Dems/Greens like usual. Students, still? Or is he too old for that now? But then, is there going to be a big student vote for Lab anyway? The lazy feckers (BTW, am I the only PBer who likes both Keir Starmer AND Owen Jones? I sense I might be.
Gosh I'm a free thinking, unpredictable unit.
This is actually part of the whole campaigning logic that will lead to an effective squeeze of the Green vote outside of a small handful of seats.
Also I think that 1951 was both the highest percentage share and highest number of votes ever for the Labour Party, but defeated because of the collapse of 3rd party votes (mostly Liberal). Labour won the popular vote over the Conservatives but lost seats under FPTP.
In retrospect Attlee had a majority, albeit slim and didn't need to call the election yet.
Not likely to vote for them though.
It triggered my curiosity so I did a bit of research… and now the Gazette is sending me there in the summer
Sweet. Gracias 👍🥂😎🍷