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If you thought we were having a May 2nd election boy were you wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.

    Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.

    "The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”

    https://x.com/KaceeRAllen/status/1767538984060666056?s=20

    You're welcome to the tw@t, if you want him.
    To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.

    But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
    The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US.
    It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
    In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
    Only grifters say that.
    I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
    Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.

    And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
    Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection

    I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them

    I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
    Well I'm glad you've grown to like me anyway.

    But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.

    It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.
    A grifter, for me, is someone who trades on untruths. Trump for sure but the term is becoming a descriptor of the madcap left.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.

    Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.

    "The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”

    https://x.com/KaceeRAllen/status/1767538984060666056?s=20

    You're welcome to the tw@t, if you want him.
    To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.

    But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
    The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US.
    It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
    In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
    Only grifters say that.
    I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
    Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.

    And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
    Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection

    I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them

    I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
    Well I'm glad you've grown to like me anyway.

    But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.

    It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.
    Didn't Alex Jones defend himself on the basis that "Alex Jones" was a confected online persona that didn't necessarily share Alex's views and so Alex could not be held responsible for "Alex".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.

    Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.

    "The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”

    https://x.com/KaceeRAllen/status/1767538984060666056?s=20

    You're welcome to the tw@t, if you want him.
    To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.

    But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
    The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US.
    It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
    In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
    Only grifters say that.
    I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
    Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.

    And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
    Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection

    I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them

    I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
    Well I'm glad you've grown to like me anyway.

    But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.

    It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.
    Didn't Alex Jones defend himself on the basis that "Alex Jones" was a confected online persona that didn't necessarily share Alex's views and so Alex could not be held responsible for "Alex".
    It didn’t work.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,286
    isam said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.

    As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.

    That is a brave prediction.
    I agree it looks unlikely, but when was the last time the outcome that looked obvious six months before polling day actually came to pass?

    2019? Nope
    2017? Nope
    EU Ref? Nope
    2015? Nope
    2010? Perhaps

    I think the last four odds on favs at that distance from the GE were beaten (NOM, Con Maj, Remain & NOM)
    I think a decent question is, should we have known better:

    2015: possibly, the signs of Labour underperformance were there throughout, in LE rounds something nailed quite late in the day by the Matt Singh analysis.

    EU Ref: It was close, the assumption of Remain winning was a lazy, bubble assumption. We should have known better.

    2017: The genuine bolt from the blue result

    2019: Let's be honest it was anyone's guess but was clearly seriously at the mercy of a confusion of events. By the time Boris pulled it, politically, from the fire, the die was cast (mixed metaphors, maybe)

    The question is what, in 2024, can we not see? A reverse in leader ratings from 2019, some lack of Labour enthusiasm, but by-elections of a scale that substantial swing back can be absorbed, regional swing looking efficient for Labour.

    I expect the swing back, I expect a small-mid sized working majority, but I don't see what we should be looking at to put the overall outcome in doubt.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited March 15
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Truman said:

    Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.

    Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.

    "The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”

    https://x.com/KaceeRAllen/status/1767538984060666056?s=20

    You're welcome to the tw@t, if you want him.
    To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.

    But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
    The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US.
    It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
    In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
    Only grifters say that.
    I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
    Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.

    And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
    Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection

    I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them

    I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
    Well I'm glad you've grown to like me anyway.

    But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.

    It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.
    A grifter, for me, is someone who trades on untruths. Trump for sure but the term is becoming a descriptor of the madcap left.
    It only applies to the madcap left if there is also a fast buck in it for them. Kinabalu's definition is bob-on.

    Johnson was a grifter because there was often some buckshee freebie available after a speech or proclamation. Like helping create a Prime Ministerial vacancy after pulling the Leave letter out of his inside pocket.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.

    As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.

    That is a brave prediction.
    I agree it looks unlikely, but when was the last time the outcome that looked obvious six months before polling day actually came to pass?

    2019? Nope
    2017? Nope
    EU Ref? Nope
    2015? Nope
    2010? Perhaps

    I think the last four odds on favs at that distance from the GE were beaten (NOM, Con Maj, Remain & NOM)
    I think a decent question is, should we have known better:

    2015: possibly, the signs of Labour underperformance were there throughout, in LE rounds something nailed quite late in the day by the Matt Singh analysis.

    EU Ref: It was close, the assumption of Remain winning was a lazy, bubble assumption. We should have known better.

    2017: The genuine bolt from the blue result

    2019: Let's be honest it was anyone's guess but was clearly seriously at the mercy of a confusion of events. By the time Boris pulled it, politically, from the fire, the die was cast (mixed metaphors, maybe)

    The question is what, in 2024, can we not see? A reverse in leader ratings from 2019, some lack of Labour enthusiasm, but by-elections of a scale that substantial swing back can be absorbed, regional swing looking efficient for Labour.

    I expect the swing back, I expect a small-mid sized working majority, but I don't see what we should be looking at to put the overall outcome in doubt.
    The campaign will be as important as 2017. Bolt from the blue? Not so much when you looked at how shite May's campaign was.

    The risk for Labour is that Starmer, under the spotlight like never before, appears nothing to anybody. That mile wide and inch deep love-in could yet at the very least rob him of a majority. Then you are looking at coalition chaos. If that is on the cards on polling day, who knows what the voters might do.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    How could we give up all that beautiful pageantry?


    MUTT & JEFF
  • Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 127

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    pigeon said:

    On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.

    As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.

    That is a brave prediction.
    I agree it looks unlikely, but when was the last time the outcome that looked obvious six months before polling day actually came to pass?

    2019? Nope
    2017? Nope
    EU Ref? Nope
    2015? Nope
    2010? Perhaps

    I think the last four odds on favs at that distance from the GE were beaten (NOM, Con Maj, Remain & NOM)
    I think a decent question is, should we have known better:

    2015: possibly, the signs of Labour underperformance were there throughout, in LE rounds something nailed quite late in the day by the Matt Singh analysis.

    EU Ref: It was close, the assumption of Remain winning was a lazy, bubble assumption. We should have known better.

    2017: The genuine bolt from the blue result

    2019: Let's be honest it was anyone's guess but was clearly seriously at the mercy of a confusion of events. By the time Boris pulled it, politically, from the fire, the die was cast (mixed metaphors, maybe)

    The question is what, in 2024, can we not see? A reverse in leader ratings from 2019, some lack of Labour enthusiasm, but by-elections of a scale that substantial swing back can be absorbed, regional swing looking efficient for Labour.

    I expect the swing back, I expect a small-mid sized working majority, but I don't see what we should be looking at to put the overall outcome in doubt.
    The campaign will be as important as 2017. Bolt from the blue? Not so much when you looked at how shite May's campaign was.

    The risk for Labour is that Starmer, under the spotlight like never before, appears nothing to anybody. That mile wide and inch deep love-in could yet at the very least rob him of a majority. Then you are looking at coalition chaos. If that is on the cards on polling day, who knows what the voters might do.
    Election on the 2nd or 3rd Thursday in October is looking good. I'd hazard a guess at a Lab Maj of 40 - 60
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    I will confidently predict an election on a Thursday between now and January 25th. Either the Labour Party or the Conservative Party will get the most votes. Behold the power of my prognostications!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    malcolmg said:

    How could we give up all that beautiful pageantry?


    MUTT & JEFF
    That's my pal Joe Morrow who is the Lord Lyon. He doesn't look like he is enjoying himself, does he?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    A
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    How could we give up all that beautiful pageantry?


    MUTT & JEFF
    That's my pal Joe Morrow who is the Lord Lyon. He doesn't look like he is enjoying himself, does he?
    Who he’s sat with, maybe?
This discussion has been closed.