Something for everyone, but an astonishing stat that 78% of the traffic on this bit of the M25 is just local people trying to get to the other side of it, rather than using it to bypass that part of London.
Build a bridge, seems to be the obvious answer.
Absolutely. If you want smart, effective infrastructure development then building more bridges is a good starting point.
We've had a potential bridge in the pipeline for years, to the west of town that would allow people to travel north and south of the river just over the bridge. Currently the only alternative is to go through the town centre or on the motorway, which is just madness piling pressure into where it's already congested.
The only people going into the town centre (or on the motorway) should be those who need it not just those who have gone out of their way because there is no alternative.
Labour is currently going through the Tory 2019 greatest hits. They’ve now got Rishi dressed up as a chicken.
I hope we don't see Keir spoofing anything from Love Actually.
Could the Colin Firth-Lúcia Moniz plot work as a way to persuade the public that close relationships with Europe are a good thing?
More likely the Emma Thompson Christmas present with Keir as Alan Rickman and the electorate as Emma Thomason - the UK thinks it’s going to get something good and ends up with a shitty CD and Keir’s flirtation with the hot European ends up breaking the bond with the voters (this might not be the outcome).
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
Something for everyone, but an astonishing stat that 78% of the traffic on this bit of the M25 is just local people trying to get to the other side of it, rather than using it to bypass that part of London.
Build a bridge, seems to be the obvious answer.
That's what I was thinking. But it must be more complicated than that.
Didn't someone on here make the point that in order to get the M25 through planning lots of concessions were made to put junctions in for local areas. The result is 33 junctions at an average gap of 3.5 miles, which is plainly ridiculous for a motorway.
I don’t see what the problem is - Darlington has 3 motorway junctions for itself within 6 miles (junctions 57-59 of the A1(M)
J31, J32, J33, J34 (Pretty much a double junction tbh), J35, J35A, J36 of the M1 all in a ~ 15 mile stretch
The M60 has 27 junctions in roughly 36 miles. Personally I don't see the problem. Though it sometimes seems the view of National Highways that their network would perfectly well if only people didn't insist on joining or leaving it.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
From their point of view, as long as it works.
After all, Trump got away - and continues to get away - with presenting himself as the voice of the real people while having shovelled money to himself and his super-rich mates while in office.
Even more infuriatingly many of his voters see him being rich as a strength. It shows he's smart and can't be bought. 🤷♂️
You are repeating a lie @TiceRichard . Guido Fawkes might be based offshore to avoid British law, but you’re not. Your added comments are also false and highly offensive, we’ll be in touch.
Whomp whomp
Why is he not saying Hamas are freedom fighters? Genuine question.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Indeed Owen Jones is just as much a grifter from the other side
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Indeed Owen Jones is just as much a grifter from the other side
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
From their point of view, as long as it works.
After all, Trump got away - and continues to get away - with presenting himself as the voice of the real people while having shovelled money to himself and his super-rich mates while in office.
Even more infuriatingly many of his voters see him being rich as a strength. It shows he's smart and can't be bought. 🤷♂️
They do want to be Trump as they dream of spouting bullshit all day whilst people fawn over them. Whars not to like.
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
Back to polls and elections for a moment, and in particular the minor parties.
Last night we saw two minor party defences, one for the Lib Dems and one for the Greens. In both cases the incumbent held and extended their majority. In Wiltshire the Lib Dem councillor romped home with 76%.
Equally interestingly, in both cases the other anti-Tory parties were heavily squeezed. The Lib Dems went down in the Green seat in Lancs, and Labour standing a candidate from zero last time only got 3.3% in Wilts.
This is not exceptional. It follows a pattern throughout this parliament. Here are the totals since the last locals in 2023:
Aggregate Result of the 156 Council By-Elections for 158 Seats Since LE2023:
The big movers are the Lib Dems and Greens (winning) and the Tories and SNP (losing). Labour has stood still. That's not necessarily bad news for Labour because they always underperform in local byelections and the LDs and Greens overperform, but it tells an interesting story below the headlines. These parties are doing well in territory where they are competitive, but not really troubling the scorers elsewhere. If that replicates in the general election then it implies good tactical efficiency, certainly for the Lib Dems.
Green is a bit different. Those local government votes won't go to their candidates in most of the country. People vote Green locally and something else nationally, and they're as likely to be Tory NIMBYs as Labour lefties. The Green vote come the general might be much more urban and left wing than the green votes in locals.
Reform are hard to judge as they have barely stood anywhere. They are a national media party not a local government presence.
Oh sure. This version of Trump will be far more dangerous. Hes already planning to sack 100000 govt workers. Really he wants to be a strong man dictator in the mould of Putin. A substantial number of Americans would support this.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
Amongst the various (and sometimes mystifying to me) people I follow on TwiX is Eduard Habsburg, direct descendant of the big Hs and Hungarian ambassador to the Holy See. He can be quite funny and has a disarming interest in Manga, but disappointingly he seems to take Orban seriously, and not in a good way.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Indeed Owen Jones is just as much a grifter from the other side
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
Something for everyone, but an astonishing stat that 78% of the traffic on this bit of the M25 is just local people trying to get to the other side of it, rather than using it to bypass that part of London.
Build a bridge, seems to be the obvious answer.
That's what I was thinking. But it must be more complicated than that.
Didn't someone on here make the point that in order to get the M25 through planning lots of concessions were made to put junctions in for local areas. The result is 33 junctions at an average gap of 3.5 miles, which is plainly ridiculous for a motorway.
I don’t see what the problem is - Darlington has 3 motorway junctions for itself within 6 miles (junctions 57-59 of the A1(M)
J31, J32, J33, J34 (Pretty much a double junction tbh), J35, J35A, J36 of the M1 all in a ~ 15 mile stretch
If I join the M11 at J4, near Ilford North, it is possible to drive all the way to the M8/M74 merge in Glasgow without changing lanes, via A14, M6, M6 (toll), M6, A74(M), and M74.
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
The ironic thing is that Britain, psychologically, is much more likely to “share” its deterrent than France. Partly because we borrow ours in the first place, but also because we don’t have that existential French terror of being invaded and devastated, as they have experienced in living memory, and several times in the last two centuries
I’ve had another email from the hardworking people at Visit Leicester. They are fast becoming my favourite emails
Right now they are promoting Leicester as the ultimate destination if you want a “fitcation” - a holiday based on improving fitness. They are pushing the city of Leicester as THE place for “active breaks”
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
The Poles will probably go for the bomb in the next decade or so.
The South African program suggests that uranium enrichment is the simplest route. Though given the Polish interest in nuclear reactors....
High burn plutonium is fun, but the US got a bomb to detonate with more than 20% Pu-240. British plutonium we lent them, as well. Would need active cooling for the core - it would have been putting out 100 watts+ of heat!
A two point detonation scheme could get you down to 50Kg in a 30cm x 60cm package. With modern high speed Xray filming techniques this could be tested on dummy core (no nuke reaction) to the point of guaranteeing a yield. Think 15-20Kt basic. With boosting or addition fissile material, could easily go to 100-150Kt.
EDIT: The Japanese have had a nuclear deterrent (of a sort) for decades. They have lots of plutonium. And a whole family of three stage solid fueled space launch rockets that just happen to look like ICBMs. But definitely aren't. No sir.
So they are x amount of work away from a working bomb and missiles to carry it.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
I’ve grown to like @kinabalu - despite his absurdities - but I sense this is probably true
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Why does being a well paid professional amount to being a "grifter"? Surely being a "grifter" implies fraud.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
Er why?
Limit single organisation donations to a specific figure. So if that's a thousand quid limit, that figure is £1000 per union.
Back when Cameron floated a proposal for this (strict limits on personal or organisational donations), there was a demand for a Trade Union exemption.
Which prompted my suggestion of the National Union of Hedge Fund Owners and Boiler Makers.
A very Labourite friend got upset at this and said it wouldn't be a real union. I asked what defined a real union. He started with the TUC. I pointed out there are a number of unions that aren't in the TUC. He said the government, next. I pointed out that a Tory government defining what was a trade union or not didn't sound ideal.....
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
Er why?
Presumably because it should mean the end of ALL donations over a certain amount (say a few thousand at most. After all, just as its right to ask what Hester wants from his 10 million 15 million spondulicks, what do the Unions want for their vast donations?
Back to polls and elections for a moment, and in particular the minor parties.
Last night we saw two minor party defences, one for the Lib Dems and one for the Greens. In both cases the incumbent held and extended their majority. In Wiltshire the Lib Dem councillor romped home with 76%.
Equally interestingly, in both cases the other anti-Tory parties were heavily squeezed. The Lib Dems went down in the Green seat in Lancs, and Labour standing a candidate from zero last time only got 3.3% in Wilts.
This is not exceptional. It follows a pattern throughout this parliament. Here are the totals since the last locals in 2023:
Aggregate Result of the 156 Council By-Elections for 158 Seats Since LE2023:
The big movers are the Lib Dems and Greens (winning) and the Tories and SNP (losing). Labour has stood still. That's not necessarily bad news for Labour because they always underperform in local byelections and the LDs and Greens overperform, but it tells an interesting story below the headlines. These parties are doing well in territory where they are competitive, but not really troubling the scorers elsewhere. If that replicates in the general election then it implies good tactical efficiency, certainly for the Lib Dems.
Green is a bit different. Those local government votes won't go to their candidates in most of the country. People vote Green locally and something else nationally, and they're as likely to be Tory NIMBYs as Labour lefties. The Green vote come the general might be much more urban and left wing than the green votes in locals.
Reform are hard to judge as they have barely stood anywhere. They are a national media party not a local government presence.
Relatively the local results suggest Labour, while still winning a majority, will not win as many seats under Starmer as Blair did in 1997. However the LDs under Davey may even make more gains than Ashdown did in 1997.
In particular Starmer doesn't appeal to the English white working class and lower middle classes as much as Blair did (and still the SNP will have around half the Scottish seats even with Labour Scottish gains) but Davey's LDs post Brexit appeal more to the English upper middle classes, especially those who voted Remain than Ashdown's LDs did. Hence why the LDs will likely gain more Tory seats in Surrey, Bucks and Oxfordshire than they did in 1997 but Labour will gain fewer Conservative seats in Kent and Essex and the Midlands than they did in 1997
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
I’ve had another email from the hardworking people at Visit Leicester. They are fast becoming my favourite emails
Right now they are promoting Leicester as the ultimate destination if you want a “fitcation” - a holiday based on improving fitness. They are pushing the city of Leicester as THE place for “active breaks”
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Speaking of May 2nd, ""there won't be a general election on that day" - Rishi Sunak
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
That would be stupid. Despite @MoonRabbit's misunderstanding of the 1970s, the Labour Party's raison d'etre is the voice of the working class - the clue's in the name - and severing the link to the unions would be stupid. We complain about the political classes being distanced from the people and this would just make it worse.
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Speaking of May 2nd, ""there won't be a general election on that day" - Rishi Sunak
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
Well done! A ton up, you made it!
This is what we're waiting for This is it boy this is war
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
That would be stupid. Despite @MoonRabbit's misunderstanding of the 1970s, the Labour Party's raison d'etre is the voice of the working class - the clue's in the name - and severing the link to the unions would be stupid. We complain about the political classes being distanced from the people and this would just make it worse.
All of this killed the last attempt at restricting donations, under the Coalition, IIRC.
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
I love it here in Santa Marta. Every morning I wake up to THIS
However I fly home next week - finally - and I am wondering if I should stick to my principles and keep exploring to that moment. I am tempted to hire a car for a couple of days and go see the Guajira desert - meant to be weird and amazing. That means I could also see the hometown of Garcia Marquez. The inspiration for Macondo in One Hundred Years of Solitude - one of my top ten favourite novels. It’s just an hour away….
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
He is certainly very open about his shortcomings on PB...
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
That would be stupid. Despite @MoonRabbit's misunderstanding of the 1970s, the Labour Party's raison d'etre is the voice of the working class - the clue's in the name - and severing the link to the unions would be stupid. We complain about the political classes being distanced from the people and this would just make it worse.
It’s open season on MoonRabbits 😆
I’m not wrong. The Union barons are more Corbynite than Corbyn, more pro Hamas than Hamas. They who funds the piper plays the tune like the individual freedom murdering ban on zero hour contracts that will wreck lives and businesses. They shouldn’t be allowed to fund anything.
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
He implies that he expects to see another reshuffle before the election. I guess that was inevitable, given that a May election seems to have now been completely ruled out.
Sunak did a reshuffle towards the end of the last summer recess, so mark your diaries for something similar in the last week of this coming August.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
I love it here in Santa Marta. Every morning I wake up to THIS
However I fly home next week - finally - and I am wondering if I should stick to my principles and keep exploring to that moment. I am tempted to hire a car for a couple of days and go see the Guajira desert - meant to be weird and amazing. That means I could also see the hometown of Garcia Marquez. The inspiration for Macondo in One Hundred Years of Solitude - one of my top ten favourite novels. It’s just an hour away….
I’d keep exploring. Colombia is a gem of a country. I’d move there permanently if I could. I stumbled on Mompos when last there - a little island where they seem to do nothing except make rocking chairs and then…rock in them. All day long. It has probably been destroyed by globalisation by now but still.
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
That is a brave prediction.
In the Sir Humphrey sense, yes ☺️
Delaying meetings is as likely a sign of uncertainty rather than certainty, for instance:
Concur with MoonRabbit in her contention (as I understand it) that Conservatives would likely do better (though still losing) by holding the next general election SOONER rather than later.
He implies that he expects to see another reshuffle before the election. I guess that was inevitable, given that a May election seems to have now been completely ruled out.
Sunak did a reshuffle towards the end of the last summer recess, so mark your diaries for something similar in the last week of this coming August.
I'm not sure there will be a major one, although there's always a chance of something more minor being forced upon him and he may, at that moment, take the opportunity to thank people like Heappey for their services and replace ahead of an election.
A significant reshuffle would scream desperation whilst having no real impact other than to antagonise those kicked out. There's simply no time left for an incoming minister to do anything in substantive terms before the General Election, and nobody will give a stuff about "Introducing your BRAND NEW minister for cheese and pickle, Bob Nobody MP".
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
The Poles will probably go for the bomb in the next decade or so.
The South African program suggests that uranium enrichment is the simplest route. Though given the Polish interest in nuclear reactors....
High burn plutonium is fun, but the US got a bomb to detonate with more than 20% Pu-240. British plutonium we lent them, as well. Would need active cooling for the core - it would have been putting out 100 watts+ of heat!
A two point detonation scheme could get you down to 50Kg in a 30cm x 60cm package. With modern high speed Xray filming techniques this could be tested on dummy core (no nuke reaction) to the point of guaranteeing a yield. Think 15-20Kt basic. With boosting or addition fissile material, could easily go to 100-150Kt.
EDIT: The Japanese have had a nuclear deterrent (of a sort) for decades. They have lots of plutonium. And a whole family of three stage solid fueled space launch rockets that just happen to look like ICBMs. But definitely aren't. No sir.
So they are x amount of work away from a working bomb and missiles to carry it.
And Poland have recently announced that they'll be increasing their contribution to the ESA from 0.9% to 4.5% of the overall budget (for comparison, France provides 20% and the UK 8.5%)
France's ICBMs are just repurposed Ariane boosters...
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
My very limited experience of naturist beaches (Brighton) suggests the sort of people you might inadvertently see there are not the sort of people you might wish to.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
I love it here in Santa Marta. Every morning I wake up to THIS
However I fly home next week - finally - and I am wondering if I should stick to my principles and keep exploring to that moment. I am tempted to hire a car for a couple of days and go see the Guajira desert - meant to be weird and amazing. That means I could also see the hometown of Garcia Marquez. The inspiration for Macondo in One Hundred Years of Solitude - one of my top ten favourite novels. It’s just an hour away….
I’d keep exploring. Colombia is a gem of a country. I’d move there permanently if I could. I stumbled on Mompos when last there - a little island where they seem to do nothing except make rocking chairs and then…rock in them. All day long. It has probably been destroyed by globalisation by now but still.
Ah, god, I nearly went to Mompos! It was either Mompos or Santa Marta, but the INSANE temperatures put me off. Colombia is going through a record-breaking heatwave. It's bad enough here on the coast - 36C predicted today, with barely a breath of fresh air off the sea
Inland Mompos is expected to hit 41C. Ouch
Also I wanted to see the death place of Bolivar and I didn't want to touble back on myself. Once you get to Mompos from Cartagena, as far as I can tell, the only way out is to go back to Cartagena. I loathe retracing steps. Life is too short to retrace
However from all I can glean off t'web it looks like Mompos hasn't changed at all
I couldn't live here permanently because the food is too shit and the cities are too violent. Otherwise, yes, it is magnificent. It has everything (apart from good food and safe streets)
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.
And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
Er why?
Limit single organisation donations to a specific figure. So if that's a thousand quid limit, that figure is £1000 per union.
Back when Cameron floated a proposal for this (strict limits on personal or organisational donations), there was a demand for a Trade Union exemption.
Which prompted my suggestion of the National Union of Hedge Fund Owners and Boiler Makers.
A very Labourite friend got upset at this and said it wouldn't be a real union. I asked what defined a real union. He started with the TUC. I pointed out there are a number of unions that aren't in the TUC. He said the government, next. I pointed out that a Tory government defining what was a trade union or not didn't sound ideal.....
Boilermakers Union merged with the General & Municipal Workers Union to form the GMB.
This prompted my dad to quit the union, as he didn't want to be in a union dominated by the interests of unskilled workers.
@leon I see you’re in Santa Marta. I presume you are aware of the picture perfect naturist beach in Tayrona? A bit of a hike to get there, but I was at least a little surprised that it was so popular in such a Catholic country. I suspect you’d enjoy it.
My very limited experience of naturist beaches (Brighton) suggests the sort of people you might inadvertently see there are not the sort of people you might wish to.
Generally true in most of the world, not true in Galicia Spain, where - as I once told PB - I inadvertently wandered onto a nudist beach while birdwatching (true story, the coast is famous for its magnificent bird life, stop sniggering)
Too late, I realised where and what I was: a fully clothed man in middle age, carrying binoculars, surrounded by beautiful women aged 18-25, all stark naked, and staring at me
Possibly the most embarrassing moment of my life. I pretended to spot an amazing condor or whatever, and pointed my eyes and binos rigidly at the sky, and made good my escape
I expect the reality of how bad those elections are for the Tories to be obscurable by decent spin, if Sunak can pull such a coup.
I'm not sure exactly how many seats Con are defending, due to the merge of the 20/21 LE rounds it is an individual count up, but in 2016 broadly the same round gleaned 850 seats for the Tories. I suspect in 2021 they were a little higher, but they'd have a job losing anywhere near the >1000 seats they lost last year, since they are barely defending that many.
Then we have NEV type measures, where Labour won by 9 last year with 35% vs a 15%ish polling lead and 45%ish polling level. If Labour win by 12 this time out, on a lowish percentage, there is false succour to be had.
Finally, the mayoral elections. Lose Birmingham, lose Middlesbrough, say "so what" and spin them as natural Labour homes (ignoring the broader metro Conservatism). Lose London, say meh.
The assumption of a Labour landslide may weaken a little in early May compared to.the marquee by-election wins, and be spun, falsely, as green shoots / work to do.
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
Er why?
Limit single organisation donations to a specific figure. So if that's a thousand quid limit, that figure is £1000 per union.
Back when Cameron floated a proposal for this (strict limits on personal or organisational donations), there was a demand for a Trade Union exemption.
Which prompted my suggestion of the National Union of Hedge Fund Owners and Boiler Makers.
A very Labourite friend got upset at this and said it wouldn't be a real union. I asked what defined a real union. He started with the TUC. I pointed out there are a number of unions that aren't in the TUC. He said the government, next. I pointed out that a Tory government defining what was a trade union or not didn't sound ideal.....
Boilermakers Union merged with the General & Municipal Workers Union to form the GMB.
This prompted my dad to quit the union, as he didn't want to be in a union dominated by the interests of unskilled workers.
The reason it would be the Hedge Fund Owners and Boiler Makers is that I have made boilers. Proof tested and everything.
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.
And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection
I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them
I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
Very bold. No chance if things stay as they are but what's the best chance the CP has of changing things?
How about:
Sunak resigns saying he's steadied the ship but it's time for a change in the interests of his party. Coronation of a Mordaunt/Badenoch ticket with the former as PM and the latter in an elevated deputy role standing side by side. Hunt stays as chancellor. Rwanda goes ahead and largely works.
On topic: I am determined to outdo MoonRabbit in the wayward election predictions race by persisting in my (barking, and almost certainly disastrously wayward) belief that we're still heading for a hung Parliament.
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
That is a brave prediction.
I agree it looks unlikely, but when was the last time the outcome that looked obvious six months before polling day actually came to pass?
Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?
I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.
Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.
Well done!
Not a New Year resolution in my case, but have been steadily losing weight since last summer by simply cutting down the amount that I eat while still eating largely my normal (vegetarian) diet. I'm down from 91 kg to 85 kg now and still gradually falling. My ideal weight would be around 80 kg, so should hopefully get there in another 6 months or so.
I've tried radical approaches before, which do lead to quick weight loss but are difficult to maintain in the long term, and then it goes back on again. This time seems different - nothing radical, but just enough to tip the balance from gain to loss, and maintainable indefinitely.
Not a NY resolution, but my goal this year has been an hour’s exercise in Zone 2 every day, by any means that feels good. Very slow running, cycling, whatever.
Have pretty much kept to it so far & the fact that I’d not knackered after going for a run has probably contributed to that. I probably look a bit silly pootling along the towpath at a pace barely faster than a fast walk, but I can live with that
Mostly doing it to try and build a decent cardio base for running, but the slow but steady loss of the post-pandemic / getting older weight gain has been an extra bonus. I seem to have lost approx 250g per week which seems eminently sustainable.
I've got a slightly odd body shape - long body, shorter legs - which means that, at 90kg (currently), my BMI is 25.4 - just in the 'overweight' category.
Yet I do loads of activities - and when I go down to (say) 85kg, not only is it difficult. but I find it harder to do activities. I think 90-95kg is my 'natural' weight - even if that's technically overweight, it doesn't stop me doing lots of energetic activity.
If you don't mind me asking, what is your waist-to-height ratio?
Essentially, waist is half my height.
That seems to be a more important measure for an individual than BMI.
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Speaking of May 2nd, ""there won't be a general election on that day" - Rishi Sunak
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
I expected it to be called by now to be honest.
It’s still not 0% though, in my book.
Rishi's "there won't be a general election on that day" wording was so tortuous that it sounds like it's something that he finds painful to talk about.
So I suspect it might well have been the plan until very recently, and that he's still bruised from the internal argument over it....
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Yes Kinabalu likes to boast of his left wing credentials but actually made a tonne of money working for a parasitic industry. His guilt about this feeds his absurd woke beliefs.
99. Nearly there. Whatever you do don't quote Novak Djokovic.
99 red balloons floating in the summer sky, remember that.
Room 101 now!
In room 101 is your worst nightmare. Yes its Putin Trump and Tucker Carlson talking about the satanic elites that run the west whilst admiring a bare chested Andrew Tate.
Interesting commentary on Shelagh Fogarty on LBC. The main thrust is Hester affair has made the case to stop union funding of Labour.
Er why?
Limit single organisation donations to a specific figure. So if that's a thousand quid limit, that figure is £1000 per union.
The problem isn't that Hester gave them more than a grand - it's that he's a racist who thinks a sitting MP should be shot.
They were nasty words, but do you really think that he would like her to be shot? People talk a lot of rubbish, a lot of the time. Most of us have little need to curate what we say as we are not going to be the subject of the BBC news. Is he racist? Probably a bit - he's an old white Brit, and lots of old white Brits tend to be a bit racist (milder versions of Jim Davidson etc).
There are really weird raptors on this coast that look a bit like kites, wheel like vultures, and squeal like buzzards. They are everywhere and a little bit eerie. Everything in Colombia is a little bit eerie
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
The ironic thing is that Britain, psychologically, is much more likely to “share” its deterrent than France. Partly because we borrow ours in the first place, but also because we don’t have that existential French terror of being invaded and devastated, as they have experienced in living memory, and several times in the last two centuries
UK already did this: Johnson signed an agreement with Sweden and Finland whereby in the interim before they joined NATO, the UK would offer them security guarantees, in order to prevent Russian nuclear blackmail. It was an implicit nuclear guarantee,
A Starmer aide on the Tories' election problem: "They can't name a date because there is no good date".
No there isn't. But much as everyone keeps saying 'election now' and variations of that, Sunak can hold on as long as he wants up to Jan next year (unless he loses the ability to command a majority or is booted out by his own side). Frankly its all rather tiresome. For political obsessives (and ANYONE on PB counts as that) the election is the most important thing. For the rest of the country I think things are much more Brenda from Bristol.
There are really weird raptors on this coast that look a bit like kites, wheel like vultures, and squeal like buzzards. They are everywhere and a little bit eerie. Everything in Colombia is a little bit eerie
Yes lots of strange men wandering around Columbia.
There are really weird raptors on this coast that look a bit like kites, wheel like vultures, and squeal like buzzards. They are everywhere and a little bit eerie. Everything in Colombia is a little bit eerie
A number of fires being reported at polling stations in Russia, and incidents of ink being poured into ballot boxes (to destroy the ballot papers inside). A number of quite unhappy people in Russia.
‘One such proposal suggests a “Eurobomb,” with the nuclear command-and-control suitcase constantly “roaming” between EU capitals.’
“Whose turn is it next with the Eurobomb?”
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
A scheme which incentivises a simultaneous first strike against every European capital might want a little reconsidering, even without the Orban objection.
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
All sorts of arrangements are going to have to be looked at during the next decade, and more urgently should the US turn isolationist.
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
The ironic thing is that Britain, psychologically, is much more likely to “share” its deterrent than France. Partly because we borrow ours in the first place, but also because we don’t have that existential French terror of being invaded and devastated, as they have experienced in living memory, and several times in the last two centuries
UK already did this: Johnson signed an agreement with Sweden and Finland whereby in the interim before they joined NATO, the UK would offer them security guarantees, in order to prevent Russian nuclear blackmail. It was an implicit nuclear guarantee,
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Speaking of May 2nd, ""there won't be a general election on that day" - Rishi Sunak
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
I expected it to be called by now to be honest.
It’s still not 0% though, in my book.
Rishi's "there won't be a general election on that day" wording was so tortuous that it sounds like it's something that he finds painful to talk about.
So I suspect it might well have been the plan until very recently, and that he's still bruised from the internal argument over it....
We await Harry and the Sunday Times to share some light, when allowed to. But you get the impression the last few weeks a revolving door of visitors was giving him advice, and all of it contradictory!
The men in suits seem to have won the day with “don’t be so daft, we could get an election winning bounce from a good Olympics this summer.”
Why have we not considered the chances of an election in June?
Because once you go past May 2nd - election results prove the wipe out polling - all hell breaks loose, one storm after another, having turned down one better, quieter looking window, why call it in a stickier less calm situation.
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Speaking of May 2nd, ""there won't be a general election on that day" - Rishi Sunak
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
I expected it to be called by now to be honest.
It’s still not 0% though, in my book.
Rishi's "there won't be a general election on that day" wording was so tortuous that it sounds like it's something that he finds painful to talk about.
So I suspect it might well have been the plan until very recently, and that he's still bruised from the internal argument over it....
Speaking of MAGA then you have Tucker Carlson who is open about preferring Russia now.
Tucker Carlson claims Moscow is freer than the U.S.
"The country I grew up in had a semi-functioning capitalist system with competition, it wasn't all like 4 companies dominating everything. That's not capitalism. That's a monopoly economy.”
To be fair, populists do sometimes have a point. The American economy (and political system - hello, Marx), is hugely skewed to the very wealthy owner class.
But having a point and having the right answer to it are two different things.
The populists are both led and bankrolled by the wealthy owner class, in the US. It's a high end grift, and Tucker is a grifter.
In the end, my friend, we are ALL grifters
Only grifters say that.
I hate to get personal, but weren’t you a well-paid accountant working at a financial services company in the City?
Worse than that, I was a bond trader for a while. My accountant time was solid value-added. It's a craft.
And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
Well then, stop accusing others of "grifting". It is pure projection
I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them
I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
Well I'm glad you've grown to like me anyway.
But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.
It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.
Comments
We've had a potential bridge in the pipeline for years, to the west of town that would allow people to travel north and south of the river just over the bridge. Currently the only alternative is to go through the town centre or on the motorway, which is just madness piling pressure into where it's already congested.
The only people going into the town centre (or on the motorway) should be those who need it not just those who have gone out of their way because there is no alternative.
Personally I don't see the problem. Though it sometimes seems the view of National Highways that their network would perfectly well if only people didn't insist on joining or leaving it.
“Looks like it’s Hungary, boss.”
“Great, nothing can go wrong there.”
Trump makes radical overhaul of RNC at furious pace
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4533173-trump-remakes-rnc-republican-nomination/
Britain should share its deterrent with Poland. Or even the Baltics, maybe even the Nordics (if they want). We can split the cost, they can help us get the missiles working
This would have the huge advantage of annoying the French
Last night we saw two minor party defences, one for the Lib Dems and one for the Greens. In both cases the incumbent held and extended their majority. In Wiltshire the Lib Dem councillor romped home with 76%.
Equally interestingly, in both cases the other anti-Tory parties were heavily squeezed. The Lib Dems went down in the Green seat in Lancs, and Labour standing a candidate from zero last time only got 3.3% in Wilts.
This is not exceptional. It follows a pattern throughout this parliament. Here are the totals since the last locals in 2023:
Aggregate Result of the 156 Council By-Elections for 158 Seats Since LE2023:
LAB: 48 (-3)
LDM: 48 (+19)
CON: 27 (-16)
GRN: 16 (+6)
IND: 12 (+2)
LOC: 5 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-1)
SNP: 0 (-5)
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1768419751313727869?s=20
The big movers are the Lib Dems and Greens (winning) and the Tories and SNP (losing). Labour has stood still. That's not necessarily bad news for Labour because they always underperform in local byelections and the LDs and Greens overperform, but it tells an interesting story below the headlines. These parties are doing well in territory where they are competitive, but not really troubling the scorers elsewhere. If that replicates in the general election then it implies good tactical efficiency, certainly for the Lib Dems.
Green is a bit different. Those local government votes won't go to their candidates in most of the country. People vote Green locally and something else nationally, and they're as likely to be Tory NIMBYs as Labour lefties. The Green vote come the general might be much more urban and left wing than the green votes in locals.
Reform are hard to judge as they have barely stood anywhere. They are a national media party not a local government presence.
https://x.com/EduardHabsburg/status/1768521960722497760?s=20
The Nordics or Poland aren't obviously daft ideas - but a Europe wide umbrella would make far more sense.
Asian states are already getting the message.
Japanese lawmakers call for closer Taiwan ties
PARLIAMENTARY SECURITY ‘A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency,’ Japanese lawmaker Nobuyuki Baba said yesterday at an international gathering in Tokyo
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/03/15/2003814957
If not May 2nd, then I think December like the last one. January 0% chance because the campaign month will be over holidays.
Once the redoubt of Reaganism, the think tank has taken to promoting Trump’s favorite strongman.
https://newrepublic.com/article/179776/heritage-foundation-viktor-orban-trump
Right now they are promoting Leicester as the ultimate destination if you want a “fitcation” - a holiday based on improving fitness. They are pushing the city of Leicester as THE place for “active breaks”
The South African program suggests that uranium enrichment is the simplest route. Though given the Polish interest in nuclear reactors....
High burn plutonium is fun, but the US got a bomb to detonate with more than 20% Pu-240. British plutonium we lent them, as well. Would need active cooling for the core - it would have been putting out 100 watts+ of heat!
A two point detonation scheme could get you down to 50Kg in a 30cm x 60cm package. With modern high speed Xray filming techniques this could be tested on dummy core (no nuke reaction) to the point of guaranteeing a yield. Think 15-20Kt basic. With boosting or addition fissile material, could easily go to 100-150Kt.
EDIT: The Japanese have had a nuclear deterrent (of a sort) for decades. They have lots of plutonium. And a whole family of three stage solid fueled space launch rockets that just happen to look like ICBMs. But definitely aren't. No sir.
So they are x amount of work away from a working bomb and missiles to carry it.
Which prompted my suggestion of the National Union of Hedge Fund Owners and Boiler Makers.
A very Labourite friend got upset at this and said it wouldn't be a real union. I asked what defined a real union. He started with the TUC. I pointed out there are a number of unions that aren't in the TUC. He said the government, next. I pointed out that a Tory government defining what was a trade union or not didn't sound ideal.....
10 million15 million spondulicks, what do the Unions want for their vast donations?In particular Starmer doesn't appeal to the English white working class and lower middle classes as much as Blair did (and still the SNP will have around half the Scottish seats even with Labour Scottish gains) but Davey's LDs post Brexit appeal more to the English upper middle classes, especially those who voted Remain than Ashdown's LDs did. Hence why the LDs will likely gain more Tory seats in Surrey, Bucks and Oxfordshire than they did in 1997 but Labour will gain fewer Conservative seats in Kent and Essex and the Midlands than they did in 1997
Anyway second race. Overnight rain has tacked up the mud, no sprint finishes fun like yesterday.
I didn’t select in ground getting worse not better.
Perhaps PM was referring to impending South Sudan general election?
Though do notice that your degree of certainty re: May 2024 UK GE is now something less than 99.46%.
Like BigG said, your analysis is/was impressive.
But (as yours truly ruefully confesses) election predictions are riskier than striking a match seeking a gas leak.
It’s still not 0% though, in my book.
This is it boy this is war
As for the date, I wouldn't be at all surprised by January, although husband heard a journalistic rumour about November on the radio yesterday. Something to do with postponement of an event in the City of London that month, though I was distracted when he mentioned it so can't recall the details of the story. But we shall see.
However I fly home next week - finally - and I am wondering if I should stick to my principles and keep exploring to that moment. I am tempted to hire a car for a couple of days and go see the Guajira desert - meant to be weird and amazing. That means I could also see the hometown of Garcia Marquez. The inspiration for Macondo in One Hundred Years of Solitude - one of my top ten favourite novels. It’s just an hour away….
I’m not wrong. The Union barons are more Corbynite than Corbyn, more pro Hamas than Hamas. They who funds the piper plays the tune like the individual freedom murdering ban on zero hour contracts that will wreck lives and businesses. They shouldn’t be allowed to fund anything.
Who wants some 🥊
Sunak did a reshuffle towards the end of the last summer recess, so mark your diaries for something similar in the last week of this coming August.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_European_Political_Community_Summit?wprov=sfla1
A significant reshuffle would scream desperation whilst having no real impact other than to antagonise those kicked out. There's simply no time left for an incoming minister to do anything in substantive terms before the General Election, and nobody will give a stuff about "Introducing your BRAND NEW minister for cheese and pickle, Bob Nobody MP".
France's ICBMs are just repurposed Ariane boosters...
Inland Mompos is expected to hit 41C. Ouch
Also I wanted to see the death place of Bolivar and I didn't want to touble back on myself. Once you get to Mompos from Cartagena, as far as I can tell, the only way out is to go back to Cartagena. I loathe retracing steps. Life is too short to retrace
However from all I can glean off t'web it looks like Mompos hasn't changed at all
I couldn't live here permanently because the food is too shit and the cities are too violent. Otherwise, yes, it is magnificent. It has everything (apart from good food and safe streets)
And re the proper City stuff, yes I do labour with guilt but this doesn't drive my left wing politics. I've been like this since I was 9.
This prompted my dad to quit the union, as he didn't want to be in a union dominated by the interests of unskilled workers.
Too late, I realised where and what I was: a fully clothed man in middle age, carrying binoculars, surrounded by beautiful women aged 18-25, all stark naked, and staring at me
Possibly the most embarrassing moment of my life. I pretended to spot an amazing condor or whatever, and pointed my eyes and binos rigidly at the sky, and made good my escape
I expect the reality of how bad those elections are for the Tories to be obscurable by decent spin, if Sunak can pull such a coup.
I'm not sure exactly how many seats Con are defending, due to the merge of the 20/21 LE rounds it is an individual count up, but in 2016 broadly the same round gleaned 850 seats for the Tories. I suspect in 2021 they were a little higher, but they'd have a job losing anywhere near the >1000 seats they lost last year, since they are barely defending that many.
Then we have NEV type measures, where Labour won by 9 last year with 35% vs a 15%ish polling lead and 45%ish polling level. If Labour win by 12 this time out, on a lowish percentage, there is false succour to be had.
Finally, the mayoral elections. Lose Birmingham, lose Middlesbrough, say "so what" and spin them as natural Labour homes (ignoring the broader metro Conservatism). Lose London, say meh.
The assumption of a Labour landslide may weaken a little in early May compared to.the marquee by-election wins, and be spun, falsely, as green shoots / work to do.
I do a more honest job than you. I craft sex toys, using my creativity, that I sell to people because they enjoy them. Or I write words in the Gazette, mined from my brain and my life, and these words make people laugh or cry or yawn, either way people are willing to read them so I get paid for them
I am closer to a primary producer. A miner or a fisherman, an artisan with an honest craft. YOU are the grifter, so go fuck yourself, banker boy
How about:
Sunak resigns saying he's steadied the ship but it's time for a change in the interests of his party.
Coronation of a Mordaunt/Badenoch ticket with the former as PM and the latter in an elevated deputy role standing side by side.
Hunt stays as chancellor.
Rwanda goes ahead and largely works.
2019? Nope
2017? Nope
EU Ref? Nope
2015? Nope
2010? Perhaps
I think the last four odds on favs at that distance from the GE were beaten (NOM, Con Maj, Remain & NOM)
A Starmer aide on the Tories' election problem: "They can't name a date because there is no good date".
So I suspect it might well have been the plan until very recently, and that he's still bruised from the internal argument over it....
Is he racist? Probably a bit - he's an old white Brit, and lots of old white Brits tend to be a bit racist (milder versions of Jim Davidson etc).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/johnson-security-assurances-sweden-and-finland-not-just-symbolic
NEW THREAD
Eventually we need to look at reshoring the whole deterrent so we are not reliant on the USA in any way
That will be really expensive, however I imagine there are countries that are ALSO looking at nukes that might be willing to split the bill
South Korea. Australia. Several European states as mentioned. Poland especially
The world is becoming more dangerous, sadly. We need to act accordingly
The men in suits seem to have won the day with “don’t be so daft, we could get an election winning bounce from a good Olympics this summer.”
But we're talking about a specific meaning of 'grifter' - a person who trades in extreme political views principally for attention and monetary gain.
It applies to some on the left but it's mainly an affliction of the populist right. Indeed it's perfectly epitomised by the Big Daddy of that space, Donald Trump.