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If you thought we were having a May 2nd election boy were you wrong – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited March 25 in General
If you thought we were having a May 2nd election boy were you wrong – politicalbetting.com

Rishi Sunak finally rules out a May election.The months of speculation about this have been ludicrous. As if he was ever going to needlessly go to the polls when they're >20 points behind in the polls. pic.twitter.com/osXp2fLlaR

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Michael Matheson, the disgraced former health secretary, faces suspension from Holyrood after he was found to have broken parliamentary rules over an £11,000 iPad roaming bill.

    A long-awaited investigation by the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body (SPCB) ruled that he had twice breached the Scottish parliament’s code of conduct and upheld the three complaints that were made against him.

    Holyrood’s standards committee will now investigate the issue further and recommend a punishment, which includes his “rights and privileges be withdrawn” as an MSP for as long as the group deems appropriate.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-matheson-broke-holyrood-rules-over-ipad-bill-inquiry-rules-27v9tm0fz
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,542

    Jürgen Klopp getting a yellow card when Liverpool are 11-2 up was peak Klopp.

    I am going to miss that mad bastard.

    When Jim McLean was manager of Dundee United he once docked his team half of their win bonus in a match they won 7-0 on the basis that they had not tried hard enough in the second half.

    Mad bastards can make great football managers: see also Fergie.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,542
    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    Everyone knows the GE is three days after Trump's inauguration.
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    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 193
    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    Oh gawd what a long time to wait.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    I still think he’ll hang on until the last moment; January 25, 2025!
    It won’t make any difference, though; the Tories will still lose!
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    So we have to put up with this drivel for another 6-9 months?

    Reform ahead of the Tories in the polls by midsummer? I don't think Sunak will enjoy his party conference.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".
    Much depends on what government we still have by then:
    1. No leadership challenge but 217 Tory MPs have said they aren’t running
    2. Failed leadership challenge means we have less ministers than before and very few of them are on the media spinning whatever lie Number 10 wants
    3. Successful leadership challenge and PM Rehman Chisti needs more time to learn where Number 10 is and what ministers do

    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    "Rishi Sunak’s levelling up agenda is beset by an “absolutely astonishing” level of delay, and the government cannot give “any compelling examples” of what it has delivered, parliament’s spending watchdog has found."

    Northern Powerhouse potholes filled in Croydon?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".
    Much depends on what government we still have by then:
    1. No leadership challenge but 217 Tory MPs have said they aren’t running
    2. Failed leadership challenge means we have less ministers than before and very few of them are on the media spinning whatever lie Number 10 wants
    3. Successful leadership challenge and PM Rehman Chisti needs more time to learn where Number 10 is and what ministers do

    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    It’s possible that the longer things go on like this, the more of a fait accompli the election starts to look and the lower the turnout. Especially of young Labour voters.

    Though yesterday apparently Tory MPs were “worried there might be peace in the Middle East by autumn”, which would reduce the likelihood of disaffection with Starmer. A big worry indeed.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    A great episode of Masters of the Air, out today to close the series, on Apple. I don't think the series quite matches up to Band of Brothers, but it was impressively made and performed.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Foxy said:

    So we have to put up with this drivel for another 6-9 months?

    Reform ahead of the Tories in the polls by midsummer? I don't think Sunak will enjoy his party conference.

    Pretty much. The people arguing that May 2nd was Sunak's last best chance were solid in their reasoning; I'm expecting things to go downhill (possibly chaotically) from here.

    But not even a hyper rationalist with a spreadsheet would call an election when twenty points behind.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".
    Much depends on what government we still have by then:
    1. No leadership challenge but 217 Tory MPs have said they aren’t running
    2. Failed leadership challenge means we have less ministers than before and very few of them are on the media spinning whatever lie Number 10 wants
    3. Successful leadership challenge and PM Rehman Chisti needs more time to learn where Number 10 is and what ministers do

    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    It’s possible that the longer things go on like this, the more of a fait accompli the election starts to look and the lower the turnout. Especially of young Labour voters.

    Though yesterday apparently Tory MPs were “worried there might be peace in the Middle East by autumn”, which would reduce the likelihood of disaffection with Starmer. A big worry indeed.
    The idiocies of FPTP is that a lower turnout amongst younger Labour voters won’t dent their majority. City seats drop to an 8k majority from 14k etc
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".


    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    Just because he ruled out May 2nd doesn’t mean it will go to January 23rd.

    A January election will be political suicide. The media would hate it. The country would hate it. It more-than-smacks of desperation. Add to that the longest month of the year for most people financially (pay day is before Christmas), the cold, dark, the idea of campaigning during Christmas and New Year … no, it’s absurd.

    It’ll be the autumn. Personally I think before the clocks go back but maybe November.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    I suspect that hanging on by Sunak will only exacerbate his situation. however, he’ll be able to put his time as PM on his CV, as has been pointed out several times over the past few days.
    Just for fun. Will we have a reshuffle in September?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".
    Much depends on what government we still have by then:
    1. No leadership challenge but 217 Tory MPs have said they aren’t running
    2. Failed leadership challenge means we have less ministers than before and very few of them are on the media spinning whatever lie Number 10 wants
    3. Successful leadership challenge and PM Rehman Chisti needs more time to learn where Number 10 is and what ministers do

    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    It’s possible that the longer things go on like this, the more of a fait accompli the election starts to look and the lower the turnout. Especially of young Labour voters.

    Though yesterday apparently Tory MPs were “worried there might be peace in the Middle East by autumn”, which would reduce the likelihood of disaffection with Starmer. A big worry indeed.
    The idiocies of FPTP is that a lower turnout amongst younger Labour voters won’t dent their majority. City seats drop to an 8k majority from 14k etc
    Enough of them elsewhere to affect things. And remember, in British electoral politics younger voters means sub-65.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    IanB2 said:

    A great episode of Masters of the Air, out today to close the series, on Apple. I don't think the series quite matches up to Band of Brothers, but it was impressively made and performed.

    Isn't this the series that @Leon stated was terribly written? ;)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    edited March 15
    "IF you thought we were having a May 2nd election boy were you wrong"

    https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46473/if---
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    I think there is now a real chance the Tories go for the nuclear option of PM #4 of this parliament.

    No election in May means an 7-8 month window has opened up. If the drip-drip negative headlines and poor Sunak media management continues, it starts to feel like enough MPs might be desperate enough for a last throw of the dice.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    "Rishi Sunak’s levelling up agenda is beset by an “absolutely astonishing” level of delay, and the government cannot give “any compelling examples” of what it has delivered, parliament’s spending watchdog has found."

    Didn't they build a football ground in BJO's constituency?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    DavidL said:

    Jürgen Klopp getting a yellow card when Liverpool are 11-2 up was peak Klopp.

    I am going to miss that mad bastard.

    When Jim McLean was manager of Dundee United he once docked his team half of their win bonus in a match they won 7-0 on the basis that they had not tried hard enough in the second half.

    Mad bastards can make great football managers: see also Fergie.
    Fergie co-owns two of yesterday's Cheltenham winners: Protektorat and Monmiral. A third winner, Shakem Up'Arry, belongs to Harry Redknapp.

    PBers inclined to follow the soccerball system in today's Cheltenham races should note:-

    1.30 Bunting (Tony Bloom)
    2.10 L'Eau Du Sud (Sir AF)
    2.50 The Jukebox Man (H Redknapp)
    5.30 Sonigino (Sir AF)
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Hah.


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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,562
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    Yes, although not much legislative unless the Lords can be relied on.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    If you thought we were having a May 2nd election you may well be wrong, but you were not alone:

    May 2nd was the most popular GE date in the PB Prediction competition with 17/81 entries, including mine*.

    (*Although, that could obviously change as I have the master spreadsheet. Joking!)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/15/no-compelling-examples-of-what-levelling-up-has-delivered-watchdog-finds

    "Rishi Sunak’s levelling up agenda is beset by an “absolutely astonishing” level of delay, and the government cannot give “any compelling examples” of what it has delivered, parliament’s spending watchdog has found."

    TBF, that's also true of each one of them since Boris.
    An utterly useless parade.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    OTOH that approach could well spell the death of the Conservative Party. Does Sunak care about that? I think he does.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".


    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    Just because he ruled out May 2nd doesn’t mean it will go to January 23rd.

    A January election will be political suicide. The media would hate it. The country would hate it. It more-than-smacks of desperation. Add to that the longest month of the year for most people financially (pay day is before Christmas), the cold, dark, the idea of campaigning during Christmas and New Year … no, it’s absurd.

    It’ll be the autumn. Personally I think before the clocks go back but maybe November.
    You are right but the advantage of a January election is that it screws the opposition parties more than it hurts the government. There are 314 days to the general election, Thursday, 23 January.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    I think there is now a real chance the Tories go for the nuclear option of PM #4 of this parliament.

    No election in May means an 7-8 month window has opened up. If the drip-drip negative headlines and poor Sunak media management continues, it starts to feel like enough MPs might be desperate enough for a last throw of the dice.

    Yup

    May 2nd was Richi's last chance to control his own destiny
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    And on topic the election is going to be November 21st, as I said in January. Even Peston saying something compatible with that has not shaken my confidence. Stopped clocks etc.

    But what happens when we get to early October? Either the polls still won't have shifted in the Conservatives' favour, in which case why not give them another month?

    Or they will have started to shift, in which case the logic will be "Give it another month and we will be competitive".


    We only get an early (before legal expiry) election if the government collapses. Otherwise it’s Thursday 23rd January.
    Just because he ruled out May 2nd doesn’t mean it will go to January 23rd.

    A January election will be political suicide. The media would hate it. The country would hate it. It more-than-smacks of desperation. Add to that the longest month of the year for most people financially (pay day is before Christmas), the cold, dark, the idea of campaigning during Christmas and New Year … no, it’s absurd.

    It’ll be the autumn. Personally I think before the clocks go back but maybe November.
    The problem with a January election is not that people will hate it, but that it would be ridiculous and people will react derisively. The ridicule would be even worse than anger.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    IanB2 said:

    A great episode of Masters of the Air, out today to close the series, on Apple. I don't think the series quite matches up to Band of Brothers, but it was impressively made and performed.

    Isn't this the series that @Leon stated was terribly written? ;)
    I got a free 3 month Apple TV subscription and decided to sign up to watch Masters of the Air. Gave up after 3 episodes - it just didn't engage me.

    I have however got completely addicted to For All Mankind which I think is brilliant on many levels.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    Golden economic legacy and all that.

    But, whatever his failings, Major was a wiser politician and a better man than many in the current crop.

    They really need someone whispering "Momento Mori" in their ears.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    I think there is now a real chance the Tories go for the nuclear option of PM #4 of this parliament.

    No election in May means an 7-8 month window has opened up. If the drip-drip negative headlines and poor Sunak media management continues, it starts to feel like enough MPs might be desperate enough for a last throw of the dice.

    I am beginning to take this possibility more seriously, only because Sunak appears to be so useless politically that another six months of him as PM is more likely to worsen the Tory position than not. He's not the safe pair of hands he was supposed to be when he replaced Truss.

    The only stumbling block is: who takes over?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Scott_xP said:

    I think there is now a real chance the Tories go for the nuclear option of PM #4 of this parliament.

    No election in May means an 7-8 month window has opened up. If the drip-drip negative headlines and poor Sunak media management continues, it starts to feel like enough MPs might be desperate enough for a last throw of the dice.

    Yup

    May 2nd was Richi's last chance to control his own destiny
    So where is the safe seat for a Johnson return? He overturned the polls in 2019. Can he do it again?

    Answers: Clacton and Hmmm?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited March 15

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    Major was a decent man...
    Sunak tells us it's for the country's good
    And Sunak is an honourable man...
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
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    I've been suggesting January 2025 for a while, glad to see its catching on. Its the most logical date, because a government 20 plus points behind doesn't go for an early election. Anyone who thought May 2024 was in cloud cuckoo land - or hopecasting.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    Golden economic legacy and all that.

    But, whatever his failings, Major was a wiser politician and a better man than many in the current crop.

    They really need someone whispering "Momento Mori" in their ears.
    Though…someone I know was talking to him a week or so ago, and he is convinced the Tories will win the next election. On the basis this is like 1992 because the economy is too uncertain for voters to risk a change of government.

    A brave view. I wonder if he’s bet accordingly. Pretty decent odds.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited March 15
    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.

  • Options

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    Well they're opposing the idea of abolishing NI, which is utterly ridiculous, its something Labour should completely 100% support and be advocating itself.

    If its January 2025 the election, then I would like to see tax thresholds frozen again in the autumn and another 2% NI cut in the autumn statement.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    The Tories are going to cut income tax which will mean even more public service cuts . Labour should Instead say they’ll use that to help public services and increase defence spending .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    Labour thinks the tax burden should be tilted toward working people rather than pensioners and the conservatives the opposite.
    That's what I picked up from Reeves' word salad of an answer when she attacked Hunt's proposed NI cuts.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
    I would just say that no political party has any choice but to be fiscally prudent or end up as Truss 2

    It is an inconvenient fact that this time there really is no money left
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    The problem here is a tale of two singularities.

    The first is the inevitable singularity of Rishi Sunak losing his job as Prime Minister. Because everyone is a hero in their own story, he thinks that this a bad thing, even though the evidence is pretty strong that for British politics and indeed the country as a whole, it would be mostly a good thing.

    The second singularity is that the longer the election is delayed, the worse the result will be for the Tories. Clinging on to power, in the vague hope that "something will turn up" is never a good look. When one considers the utter exhaustion of the Tories, and the huge rush for the exit by members of the parliamentary party, even ahead of the GE itself, it is very dangerous to continue ad nauseam. Defeat is inevitable, by January it will most likely become a rout, which could fundamentally eclipse the Tories for decades.

    Yet for Sunak the first singularity outweighs the second. Hope dies last.

    Meanwhile, May 2nd will see the Lib Dems back on the polling map as a result of the local elections, which, judging from recent local by elections will see victories concentrated in the blue wall. If Sunak had gone to the country on May 2nd, These losses would have been minimised. Reform Ltd. does not have membership sufficient to fight the locals successfully, and will likely fade after their inevitable disappointment. However they will not fade so much in the air war campaign of the GE, so the Tory result at the GE could be worse than the locals, which themselves will be exceptionally bad.

    Sunak is gone at the electoral singularity. The question now is how much of the Tory Party gets through... and the answer is that the longer the election is delayed, the fewer seats the Tories will hold afterwards.

    With Labour polling in the low 40%s but a squeeze from both Reform Ltd, and the Lib Dems, the Tories, even if they polled above 25% could still lose around two thirds of their seats. Much below 25% and, as we know from Canada FPTP can wipe out a party.didnt go for May 2nd.

    The Tory Party singularity could be far worse than the Prime Minister thinks. He may rue the day, as Callaghan or Brown before him, when he decided to hang on and didn´t go for May 2nd.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    edited March 15
    The horrific moment you're out on a run and the Spectator podcast autoplays SeanT feebly trying not to soil himself.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited March 15

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    Well they're opposing the idea of abolishing NI, which is utterly ridiculous, its something Labour should completely 100% support and be advocating itself.

    If its January 2025 the election, then I would like to see tax thresholds frozen again in the autumn and another 2% NI cut in the autumn statement.
    I agree with this. Freezing the thresholds and using the created fiscal drag to cut employee NI down to zero is what should be done over the next parliament. It'd be a boost for lower paid workers at the expense of those on middling and higher incomes. Once employee NI is at zero income tax thresholds (Or cuts) should then start moving up again.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    Major was a decent man...
    And Blair was a charismatic breath of fresh air with a set of radical redistrutive policies and a desire to invest in turn round the decaying wreck of 18 years of Tory rule with real investment.

    SKS/ austerity Reeves are not Blair/ Brown who were good people
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    edited March 15

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    Well they're opposing the idea of abolishing NI, which is utterly ridiculous, its something Labour should completely 100% support and be advocating itself.

    If its January 2025 the election, then I would like to see tax thresholds frozen again in the autumn and another 2% NI cut in the autumn statement.
    Your hope of Labour equalising IT and NI is unrealistic

    We even have a shadow chancellor who thinks NI is a hypothercated tax for pensions when it is not
  • Options
    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    There are only 2592 seats up at the council elections . So less scope for huge Tory losses in terms of actual seats but it could still turn ugly in terms of percentage loss .
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    You are both right. You'd be hard-pressed to slide a fag paper between the parties on policy but paradoxically there is great animosity between them.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451
    To me it signals profound weakness and defeat if they run down the clock. And if they decide to spend their time with yet another leadership change that will be the end of the party. It will be perceived as disrespectful to the electorate. Not only that, if it goes to the members then a hard right populist alternative will come in and the tories will lose their centrist voters to labour. And they outnumber the popcons 2:1 - at least. It would be a disaster. And I am not sure they would recover a significant number of reform protest votes.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
    I would just say that no political party has any choice but to be fiscally prudent or end up as Truss 2

    It is an inconvenient fact that this time there really is no money left
    Compare to 1946 Attlee!

    There being no money left and therefore needing austerity 2 is a Political Choice as is blaming migrants and those on benefits.

    SKS is no Attlee.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
    The Blair change manifesto was rather de-emphasised in the run up to 1997. The big pitch was fiscal restraint.

    What does that remind you of?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    You are both right. You'd be hard-pressed to slide a fag paper between the parties on policy but paradoxically there is great animosity between them.
    The animosity is a feature of the similarity. Got to fight, to differentiate.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237

    I think there is now a real chance the Tories go for the nuclear option of PM #4 of this parliament.

    No election in May means an 7-8 month window has opened up. If the drip-drip negative headlines and poor Sunak media management continues, it starts to feel like enough MPs might be desperate enough for a last throw of the dice.

    I am beginning to take this possibility more seriously, only because Sunak appears to be so useless politically that another six months of him as PM is more likely to worsen the Tory position than not. He's not the safe pair of hands he was supposed to be when he replaced Truss.

    The only stumbling block is: who takes over?
    We’re lucky Boris isn’t in parliament, because I think they’re desperate enough to give him another go.

    Other than that, I can’t see beyond Mordaunt because there’s nobody else who isn’t either (a) measurably tied too closely to Rishi or Truss, or (b) who would want the poisoned chalice right now.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    Labour thinks the tax burden should be tilted toward working people rather than pensioners and the conservatives the opposite.
    That's what I picked up from Reeves' word salad of an answer when she attacked Hunt's proposed NI cuts.
    Well done for listening.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.

    I am. Have lost 15.2kg so far, which is over two and a half stone in old money. Perhaps a further stone and a half to go.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    What if the Rwanda policy actually works and leads to a big drop in boat crossings ?

    Together with that , the economy improving and interest rates falling there is certainly room for the Tories to see a significant improvement in their polling .

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    Labour thinks the tax burden should be tilted toward working people rather than pensioners and the conservatives the opposite.
    That's what I picked up from Reeves' word salad of an answer when she attacked Hunt's proposed NI cuts.
    Well done for listening.
    If the tax system made sense, it wouldn't need tilting in any direction. People on 18K shouldn't be paying any income taxes. People with an income of 100k should all be paying the same tax. etc.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Devoured by Private Equity.
    .
    Morrisons reports £1.1bn loss, £8.6bn debt pile, £735m interest paid, 8,800 jobs lost, assets sold, market share lost.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    Eabhal said:

    The horrific moment you're out on a run and the Spectator podcast autoplays SeanT feebly trying not to soil himself.

    With sound effects?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    Well they're opposing the idea of abolishing NI, which is utterly ridiculous, its something Labour should completely 100% support and be advocating itself.

    If its January 2025 the election, then I would like to see tax thresholds frozen again in the autumn and another 2% NI cut in the autumn statement.
    First of those is booked in to 2028 already, I think. So there's no more headroom for another similar NI cut.

    The honest way to do it is cut NI rate, increase IT rate. And whilst you might be happy with that, the chances of that happening in an election year are minimal.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027

    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.

    I dunno that I'd call it a new year's resolution (I don't do those because I think mostly they don't work), but I did decide that I was a bit heavier than I wanted to be, so am on a "don't buy cakes and biscuits" diet[*], which is enough to tip me from very slightly gaining weight to slightly losing it. So I'm down from 79kg at start of the year to about 76.5kg now, aiming probably for 75kg.

    [*] free cake is OK, and I'm fine with one lapse or so a week. The real aim is to get out of the habit I'd fallen into of having coffee and cake in the work cafe most workdays and buying doughnuts or whatever every time I was in the supermarket.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.

    I am. Have lost 15.2kg so far, which is over two and a half stone in old money. Perhaps a further stone and a half to go.
    15.2KG is not over 2 and a half stone but we'll done anyway.

    I need to get back on it.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    edited March 15

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
    The bigger difference between Blair and Starmer is one of courage. Starmer can't even get Diane Abbott reinstated. Someone who has done more for 'Labour Values' than Starmer is ever likely to do.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    You are both right. You'd be hard-pressed to slide a fag paper between the parties on policy but paradoxically there is great animosity between them.
    Well, on the surface yes. But that is just electioneering. The fact is that the labour approach is going to be a full on pro-european policy. It is the tacit policy not being spoken about. It is the one big policy switch that can change the structural and strategic circumstance of the British economy. There is no more technocratic button pushing or fiddling the tax structure that will change anything. First term of a labour government you are going to see a vast range of deal with the eu on security, trade deals on food, manufacturing and immigration. Second term will bring us back to the SM and a CU. The detente with europe will be on a scale totally unacceptable to the tory right... but that won't be a problem, because they will largely be ejected in the next parliament. But this is what has to happen to get us out of this corner the tories have painted us into to appease their radicals. And the fact is: Britain's economy is lean and mean from its time exposed to the cold winds of globalization... as soon as we get access to the European market without friction, britain will be in an excellent position to grow and retake lost market shares on the continent.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211

    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.

    Well done!

    Not a New Year resolution in my case, but have been steadily losing weight since last summer by simply cutting down the amount that I eat while still eating largely my normal (vegetarian) diet. I'm down from 91 kg to 85 kg now and still gradually falling. My ideal weight would be around 80 kg, so should hopefully get there in another 6 months or so.

    I've tried radical approaches before, which do lead to quick weight loss but are difficult to maintain in the long term, and then it goes back on again. This time seems different - nothing radical, but just enough to tip the balance from gain to loss, and maintainable indefinitely.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    That's not to say that pattern matching by LLMs won't be disruptive. I'd be confident that there's a lot of value to be extracted by finding patterns in the corpus of human knowledge on an industrial scale. And it will suck for people who currently make a living doing bits of that on an artisan scale.

    But that's not AI, and I'm doubtful that it gets us closer to AI. There's a theory that intelligence evolved so that males could impress the Laydeeezz. (And the Laydeeezz could be smart enough to ignore the men showing off.) Not sure that it's even possible to replicate that in silicon.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    It's why I say the current 'AI's are not really AIs. They don't *understand* things.

    An analogy might be the difference between Mastermind and Only Connect. On the surface they are very similar: Mastermind requires you to have an encyclopaedic knowledge of general and specialist knowledge. But that's all.

    Only Connect requires an encyclopedic knowledge, but also the ability to try and work out the connections between pieces of encyclopedic knowledge. Mastermind would not be a test of intelligence; Only Connect might be.

    (This is not to dismiss Mastermind contestants; they'll be intelligent. It's just that I don't see the quiz as a good test of intelligence, just fact storage and retrieval.)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    Jürgen Klopp getting a yellow card when Liverpool were 11-2 up was peak Klopp.

    I am going to miss that mad bastard.

    It's a mentality thing and it's that mentality which turned Liverpool into title winners. Got to respect Klopp.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    nico679 said:

    Labour should refuse to honour any pledges made by the Tories in the autumn statement.

    Good morning

    Even good ones?
    Well they're opposing the idea of abolishing NI, which is utterly ridiculous, its something Labour should completely 100% support and be advocating itself.

    If its January 2025 the election, then I would like to see tax thresholds frozen again in the autumn and another 2% NI cut in the autumn statement.
    First of those is booked in to 2028 already, I think. So there's no more headroom for another similar NI cut.

    The honest way to do it is cut NI rate, increase IT rate. And whilst you might be happy with that, the chances of that happening in an election year are minimal.
    What is happening, at the moment is that the NI cuts are partially offsetting the increase in IT take due to fiscal drag.

    So, in effect, the current government is cutting NI, while IT is going up.

    Many, including myself, would do a different structure for the IT rises. I would go back to the personal allowance, and increase it, offset further up the scale. Mind you, I would make the personal allowance non-removable.

    And re-structure the triple lock - that when the pension reaches the level of the personal allowance, the two will be locked together and both subject to the triple-lock.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    nico679 said:

    What if the Rwanda policy actually works and leads to a big drop in boat crossings ?

    Together with that , the economy improving and interest rates falling there is certainly room for the Tories to see a significant improvement in their polling .

    No - they in through the event horizon now. Nothing can save them.

    Even if Rishi personally defeated Russia and led the parade through Red Square. And solved the Israel/Palestine problem.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    MaxPB said:

    Jürgen Klopp getting a yellow card when Liverpool were 11-2 up was peak Klopp.

    I am going to miss that mad bastard.

    It's a mentality thing and it's that mentality which turned Liverpool into title winners. Got to respect Klopp.
    Would love to see them win everything this season
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    I've been suggesting January 2025 for a while, glad to see its catching on. Its the most logical date, because a government 20 plus points behind doesn't go for an early election. Anyone who thought May 2024 was in cloud cuckoo land - or hopecasting.

    We'll get our revenge at the polls, eventually.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    That's not to say that pattern matching by LLMs won't be disruptive. I'd be confident that there's a lot of value to be extracted by finding patterns in the corpus of human knowledge on an industrial scale. And it will suck for people who currently make a living doing bits of that on an artisan scale.

    But that's not AI, and I'm doubtful that it gets us closer to AI. There's a theory that intelligence evolved so that males could impress the Laydeeezz. (And the Laydeeezz could be smart enough to ignore the men showing off.) Not sure that it's even possible to replicate that in silicon.
    My son is obsessed with the Voynich manuscript at the moment, and is looking at it from Latin and Greek viewpoints. It's that sort of thing that LLMs may be brilliant at solving.

    Incidentally, machine learning is at the heart of the recent decoding of some of the Herculaneum papyri; although it required humans to spend countless hours staring at images to get the initial feed information.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00346-8
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    By contrast I've managed to gain half a stone since Xmas by eating crisps everyday.
    This has brought me up over ten stone which I'm happy about.
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    Labour thinks the tax burden should be tilted toward working people rather than pensioners and the conservatives the opposite.
    That's what I picked up from Reeves' word salad of an answer when she attacked Hunt's proposed NI cuts.
    Well done for listening.
    If the tax system made sense, it wouldn't need tilting in any direction. People on 18K shouldn't be paying any income taxes. People with an income of 100k should all be paying the same tax. etc.
    I get the pragmatic argument for this (and am in favour of it, inter alia) but I’m not sure this is right in principle.

    Dream scenario A: I write a bestselling novel and earn £100k royalties p.a. I spend my time crafting bespoke campervan conversions that I sell at a very slight loss after indulging my love of joinery to make the most beautiful campervan fittings you have ever seen.

    Dream scenario B: Teachers’ pay is hiked to £100k in return for schools becoming a sort of one stop shop for thriving kids (wraparound care, much shorter holidays with holiday camps, all teachers trained as mental health professionals etc). My hours are brutal but my job satisfaction is high.

    I think the me in A should, morally, be taxed more heavily because I’m laying about indulging myself when I could be being more productive, whereas in B my productivity is maximised.

    More prosaically I think unearned income should be taxed more heavily than earned income.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    From a technical perspective it's because all of these models lack instant memory access. One of the reasons I think the new wse3 is a game changer is because it has human like memory capacity on chip. It looks much more like a "brain" than anything that's come before it. The models built on it will take a big step forwards in reasoning IMO which is where gpt4 is still in its infancy.
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    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,637
    Nigelb said:

    One of the US volunteers in Ukraine has visited Congress.

    It’ll be coming out soon.
    But I went to the capitol for more than just the Ukraine aid bill that’s stuck before house speaker Johnson.

    I went to provide proof and speak to representatives over one of Chosen company’s fallen: Dalton “Gimli” Medlin.

    Gimli was an integral part of Chosen. One of the OGS (original members), he helped train up grenadiers, he helped with trench SOPs and overall was an amazing person.

    Dalton was subsequently executed by Russian soldiers and his body subsequently booby trapped mid 2023.

    Chosen will not stop on the battlefield to get justice and I’m now hoping the US government doesn’t stop to get justice as well. We know the unit responsible, the command responsible, and we will exact vengeance no matter where these members are in the world. Close your windows, hide your families, because we are coming and none of you will walk away.

    The biggest issue that put Dalton and our other fallen in excessive harms way is the lack of heavy munitions and the US government slow walking aid.

    In war, you can not be indecisive and sadly the USA has been just that. Talking constantly about Putin’s red lines which aren’t actually lines. Talking of this can’t happen etc. Without realizing these indecisive moments have cost hundreds if not thousands of lives and are pushing the world closer to a Franz Ferdinand moment.

    We talk about Putin red lines, without talking about Ukraine, Poland, France, Estonian etc red lines.

    This war will decide if we allow war criminals free rein over attacking democratic nations and will set a precedent for future conflicts.

    Either support Ukraine now, or we will have a lot more gold star families in the US in the future. Families that speaker Johnson and his ilk won’t meet face to face to apologize for getting their loved ones killed over partisan politics.

    PASS THE AID BILL NOW

    https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1768533153847681505

    We're due another Franz Ferdinand moment, their first album is an absolute banger.

    Which wiki tells me came out 20 years ago. Christ I'm old.

    Twenty years ago, if I was listening to a twenty-year-old album I would've thought it was ancient.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    The horrific moment you're out on a run and the Spectator podcast autoplays SeanT feebly trying not to soil himself.

    With sound effects?
    I sprayed coffee on my screen... :smiley:
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    It's perfectly possible to be conscious and delusional.
    Which is not to say that LLMs are; just that this isn't a very good objection to their being so.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671

    nico679 said:

    What if the Rwanda policy actually works and leads to a big drop in boat crossings ?

    Together with that , the economy improving and interest rates falling there is certainly room for the Tories to see a significant improvement in their polling .

    No - they in through the event horizon now. Nothing can save them.

    Even if Rishi personally defeated Russia and led the parade through Red Square. And solved the Israel/Palestine problem.
    I’m not convinced. But hope you’re right .
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited March 15

    Nigelb said:

    One of the US volunteers in Ukraine has visited Congress.

    It’ll be coming out soon.
    But I went to the capitol for more than just the Ukraine aid bill that’s stuck before house speaker Johnson.

    I went to provide proof and speak to representatives over one of Chosen company’s fallen: Dalton “Gimli” Medlin.

    Gimli was an integral part of Chosen. One of the OGS (original members), he helped train up grenadiers, he helped with trench SOPs and overall was an amazing person.

    Dalton was subsequently executed by Russian soldiers and his body subsequently booby trapped mid 2023.

    Chosen will not stop on the battlefield to get justice and I’m now hoping the US government doesn’t stop to get justice as well. We know the unit responsible, the command responsible, and we will exact vengeance no matter where these members are in the world. Close your windows, hide your families, because we are coming and none of you will walk away.

    The biggest issue that put Dalton and our other fallen in excessive harms way is the lack of heavy munitions and the US government slow walking aid.

    In war, you can not be indecisive and sadly the USA has been just that. Talking constantly about Putin’s red lines which aren’t actually lines. Talking of this can’t happen etc. Without realizing these indecisive moments have cost hundreds if not thousands of lives and are pushing the world closer to a Franz Ferdinand moment.

    We talk about Putin red lines, without talking about Ukraine, Poland, France, Estonian etc red lines.

    This war will decide if we allow war criminals free rein over attacking democratic nations and will set a precedent for future conflicts.

    Either support Ukraine now, or we will have a lot more gold star families in the US in the future. Families that speaker Johnson and his ilk won’t meet face to face to apologize for getting their loved ones killed over partisan politics.

    PASS THE AID BILL NOW

    https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1768533153847681505

    We're due another Franz Ferdinand moment, their first album is an absolute banger.

    Which wiki tells me came out 20 years ago. Christ I'm old.

    Twenty years ago, if I was listening to a twenty-year-old album I would've thought it was ancient.
    It's now been longer since the first Radiohead album (31 years, 1 month), than the first Radiohead album was since the first Beatles album (29 years, 11 months).
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095

    Curious if anyone here is still doing their New Year Resolutions or if those in 'fat club' are still on their diets etc?

    I've just had an NHS checkup this week due to being over 40 and was surprised how supportive the person doing it was of the carnivore diet I'm doing, most NHS materials still seem stuck in completely out of date "five fruit and veg" days so that was good. Even more supportive when I said how much weight I've lost.

    Now back at the same weight I was when I got married 11 years ago. Not at goal weight yet, but getting there.

    I continue with my moderate low carb diet, I put on a few pounds on holiday having drunk a fair amount of beer and eaten noodles and rice, but I have lost most of them already. And to be honest with a BMI of 20.6 I don't have to worry. My target will be to achieve my lowest racing weight for Amsterdam Marathon in October.

    The question is, Bart, what are you going to do when you achieve your target weight? Stick with the carnivore diet, go back to a standard one (you will put the weight back on) or something else?

    My main NYR for immediate action was to not drink at home until I returned from holiday, which I achieved. (I also achieved it on holiday as not once did I drink at my hotel). To start with it was hard, I sometimes needed a drink and it was a big effort not to pure one. Since returning from Thailand I have had two or three G&Ts and enjoyed them. I have cancelled Naked Wines, and not felt like opening any of the bottles that are left. Job done. I don't think there is anything particularly wrong with drinking at home per sec, but I felt I was doing too much, for the wrong reasons, and I drink enough diwn the pub as it is
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    On topic - May could have been the Cons best chance of salvaging something but it is hardly nailed on. To call an election now would have been brave (being generous) and Mr Sunak is certainly not a brave PM. It would have required a firm strategy and a firm decision. Mr Sunak does not do decisions. He is a weak PM and a weak party leader. What is he in office to achieve other than Govt contracts for his donors and friends?

    Just a note that the Cons are currently further behind in the polls than they were six months ago. They are marginally further behind than they were twelve months ago. That does not mean the Govt's position cannot improve but there are precious few signs of it. They are 8 months from a landslide defeat or 10 months away from a humiliation. That is where they are and Mr Sunak and his No 10 minions seem to have no idea of what to do about it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    edited March 15
    MaxPB said:

    Seen elsewhere, further adventures with ChatGPT.


    I think this perfectly illustrates why LLMs as currently constituted are not conscious. My best guess is that these models are a cul de sac in the journey towards AGI, although they will be able increasingly to pass every Turing test we throw at them, able to mimic something that is conscious by aping human communication in increasingly brilliant ways - through words, images and music. I suspect AGI will be achieved via some other route. It certainly is coming. But I don't see any kind of genuine consciousness behind ChatGPT et al, just a dead-eyed computer.
    From a technical perspective it's because all of these models lack instant memory access. One of the reasons I think the new wse3 is a game changer is because it has human like memory capacity on chip. It looks much more like a "brain" than anything that's come before it. The models built on it will take a big step forwards in reasoning IMO which is where gpt4 is still in its infancy.
    I think they will be great and transformative but you give the game away and use the wrong word when you say "reasoning".

    Let's take pineapple on pizza as an example. Would the most sophisticated LLM on the planet be able to opine on whether it's a good thing or a bad thing.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    TimS said:

    biggles said:

    I too assume a Jan election, not because he wants it (he probably honestly thinks it will be November-ish right now) but because there will always be a good reason to delay until he can delay no more.

    That does (just about) give time for one last change of PM who more or less immediately goes to the polls and hopes they immediately change like they did for Boris in 2019. Certainly, on current polling, I am not sure there is a downside for the Tories in yet another PM any more.

    January gives the government maximum earth salting time too. Or, more generously, maximum time to enact conservative policies and change the country and present Labour with facts on the ground.

    That’s 10 months in which to slash tax and spending so far that Labour must either hike tax again or preside over collapsing public services, and plenty of time to enact some “anti-woke” policies. Ban metric weights and measures. Maybe even shake things up with some referendums on capital punishment or ECHR.
    I don’t recall Major’s government “salting the ground in 1997”, but the atmosphere between the parties, and indeed in politics in general, wasn’t as unpleasant as it seems to be now.
    How do you mean.

    The atmosphere between the 2 parties now is that they look at each other and say snap apart from the rosette colour.
    My recollection of 1997 is that Nlair offered hope and greater investment in crumbling Public Services, an introduction of a minimum wage support for the young I education x 3 and an end to poverty via surestartcentres.

    A truly magnificent night in my Political lifetime.

    By contrast SKS Tories offer austerity and workfare.
    I would just say that no political party has any choice but to be fiscally prudent or end up as Truss 2

    It is an inconvenient fact that this time there really is no money left
    Compare to 1946 Attlee!

    There being no money left and therefore needing austerity 2 is a Political Choice as is blaming migrants and those on benefits.

    SKS is no Attlee.
    For someone complaining about austerity to use Attlee as a counter example shows an interesting grasp of history.
This discussion has been closed.