The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Crebilly is a good call. I have been following Deo all season, so my heart may have ruled my head on the 4.10.
Stage Star is a Star, but after some average days I hold some doubts and felt tempted by several of the other runners in that one.
I have my greatest confidence in Teahupoo, on basis they targeted Cheltenham.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
It's part of an industry where the people choosing suppliers don't pay the bills and so have little incentive to care. In some cases there may be a "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" mentality, in others possibly more sinister issues where the company choosing the supplier has some kid of relationship with the supplier.
The obvious thing seems to be to legally involve the leaseholders in the choice of supplier, which would put a strong price inventive on the choices. But I can see the freeholder also needs to have some input where it relates to fundamental upkeep. The freeholder should be able to make sure that the maintenance that stops a block of flats collapsing happens; the leaseholders should be able to decide whether they want to pay for someone to come and change bulbs in the communal stairwells (and the communal gardens ) or organise it themselves and also give the boot to companies that take the piss.
There are already mechanisms whereby the leaseholders can take control of the process but most commonly the leaseholders end up blaming each other and then the decline and real problems start.
You can't just outlaw the practice of increasing service charges as suggested upthread because all the costs are real, for the most part. Unless you have someone actively managing the costs and a degree of collective risk aversion (very difficult to achieve) on the part of the leaseholders they spiral out of control as is the case at the housing associations described above. The problem is fundamentally one of complex regulation and case law for which 'greedy freeholders and managing agents' get blamed.
Worse is to come. Some of the blocks of flats being built now have obligations to maintain drainage tanks at specific discharge rates, CCTV systems, waste collections, parking management measures etc for the lifetime of the development. They will rapidly result in over £1k per month service charges.
£1k a month service charge forever (& perhaps increasing) drops the value against the same freehold by ~ £250k. If a 20 year old is buying they'll probably spend over a million quid through their life on it. Or others will. I simply don't see how anyone would ever choose to buy anything under these conditions.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
The problem is often to do with layers of contracting out.
In my old flat, we all owned the freehold (outright ownership). The managing agent company we used was bought out. The charges started to rise. Someone dug around and found out that the new owners had a model of contracting out all the actual services. So we didn't renew their contract - found someone else to do the job at about the old rate. Cue "You can't do that!".
That's part of it, but there also seems to be an issue with some very poorly-built buildings that are now ruinously expensive to insure and maintain. The cheapest thing to do long-term might be to pull them down and rebuild, but if the costs of insurance/maintenance can be loaded onto the leaseholders then there's no incentive for the freeholder to go down the rebuild route. And the leaseholders wouldn't be able to afford a rebuild in the short-term anyway.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
I think that's right. The current government has no positives. None. And that is very rare even in comparison to past failing governments - in the 1970s Labour had Callagahan, who was ahead of Thatcher on leadership ratings and in 1997 the Tories had a competent and heavyweight leadership under Major, Hesletine, Hurd and Clarke and their economic record AFTER black Wednesday was OK. Today's Tories have none of these things.
True and unlike 1997 the general standard of Cabinet members has been pretty mediocre.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
But with Boris, Truss, and Sunak, it's not just been a change of PM, it's been a change of the whole direction and tone of government.
Boris at least called an election to get a fresh mandate. But the programme that the Tories were elected on in 2019 has been abandoned twice over.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I can't see black swans helping either. They might lead to a rate cut if something cuts demand massively, but it won't be seen as a good thing in general...
"When the security of the nation is at stake, would you trust a human rights lawyer to do the right thing by the British people?"
Yes!
It's like none of these people have read or watched Bridget Jones' Diary.
Or seem to think that human rights matter to British citizens.
Human rights do seem to sit in a list of political topics where voters think they only affect other people.
- Human rights - Tax rises - Law and order and police powers - Restricting the right to protest - Cutting benefits - Eliminating waste in public service (of course it's not *your* job they'll eliminate) - Freedom of movement in the EU
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
But with Boris, Truss, and Sunak, it's not just been a change of PM, it's been a change of the whole direction and tone of government.
Boris at least called an election to get a fresh mandate. But the programme that the Tories were elected on in 2019 has been abandoned twice over.
I think that's a different question. My point is that we do NOT elect PM's. We never have, and saying that a PM who takes over mid-term is unelected is indeed juvenile. Arguing that if they change direction/policy from the original manifesto/direction of travel is reasonable. However we all know that manifestos are not worth tuppence. And besides the biggest changes of direction since 2019 have been responses to external factors (Covid and the energy shock/Ukraine) - would a government need to seek a new mandate to deal with those events too?
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
The problem is often to do with layers of contracting out.
In my old flat, we all owned the freehold (outright ownership). The managing agent company we used was bought out. The charges started to rise. Someone dug around and found out that the new owners had a model of contracting out all the actual services. So we didn't renew their contract - found someone else to do the job at about the old rate. Cue "You can't do that!".
That's part of it, but there also seems to be an issue with some very poorly-built buildings that are now ruinously expensive to insure and maintain. The cheapest thing to do long-term might be to pull them down and rebuild, but if the costs of insurance/maintenance can be loaded onto the leaseholders then there's no incentive for the freeholder to go down the rebuild route. And the leaseholders wouldn't be able to afford a rebuild in the short-term anyway.
Another one is not building up a reserve - sell with a cheap, cheap service charge. Then cladding, lifts etc...
I think the last 8 years have shown MPs aren't good enough to be PM, we need a PM from the Lords.
Top comedy from Bloomberg on the idea that the Tories should fight the election under a caretaker. If only Jimmy Chérizier had chosen such a peaceful path.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
So a vote by all the MPs would be OK? I'd agree that the MPs in the majority party passing on their responsibility to unelected party members is pretty undemocratic.
Liz Truss said the other day that over the last 30 years elected representatives had lost power to unelected organisations. I suppose she had in mind things like the 1998 Conservative Party rule change that took the final choice of Conservative leader (and therefore sometimes PM) away from MPs - must be one of the biggest examples in the UK.
I'm not really saying it's ok or not ok. But fwiw I think if the new leader is also to be PM it would be better to leave it to MPs.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
Yes I know. That's the Form of it. But many people vote based on who they want to be PM. That's the Substance. And you can't ignore the Substance because of the Form.
Simón Bolivar, the great Liberator, died in an old hacienda 5 minutes from here. As he died he was “Cradled in a hammock formed by the hands of his friends”
Apparently he died penniless despite liberating an entire continent. However I suggest that if you die “cradled in a hammock formed by the hands of your friends” then you die in great prosperity
"When the security of the nation is at stake, would you trust a human rights lawyer to do the right thing by the British people?"
I wouldn't trust her either tbf. But I do think she'd probably make a better cabinet than Sunak. It'd have to be a 'unity' job, so I'd expect to see all strands of the party represented, along with the re-emergence of figures like Andrea Leadsom (who was a good Minister afaicr, sacked by Bojo for talking too much at Cabinet meetings).
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
A twat remains a twat, regardless of their mode of transport.
The thing people tend to forget is a twat driving an SUV is far more likely to kill someone than a twat doing anything else.
That is true.
Given the increasing size and power of the eBikes, combined with the insanity with which they are ridden (worse than the perpetually L plated scooter riders), I wonder where they are in the stats, though.
This is an important issue.
There's a confusion in language there - anything more than 250W assist whilst pedalling, or at >15.5mph, is a moped or a motorbike not a pedal cycle (Type Approval Regs). As such they require insurance, registration etc and can be enforced upon by police.
E-bike as a term has no meaning, and so Councils such as H&F (who have banned "E-bikes" on the Thames Path by PSPO, ignoring advice they were offered) are up a legal creak with no paddle.
The Govt are currently consulting to double the power of e-bikes which are defined as Pedal Cycles to 500W from 250W, seemingly under the tutelage of the logistics industry. The usual ill-thought through, inept garbage we have come to expect from the current lot.
There are two problems with this:
1 - The more powerful machines cannot be managed / regulated separately from pedal cycles, and so have legal access to all cycling infra - including shared pavements where they exist, such as in my town where the "minimum possible at minimum cost" option for 30 years was shared pavements; other places do painted lanes.
An example of the machines being promoted as meeting this is the articulated cycle-van below. This is a company called City Shuttle.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
Yes I know. That's the Form of it. But many people vote based on who they want to be PM. That's the Substance. And you can't ignore the Substance because of the Form.
The problem is that it distorts the entire political system. The logical conclusion to the argument is that MPs shouldn't unseat a PM between elections, because they have no mandate to do so. Boris Johnson should still be PM, right? You risk ending up with a quasi-Presidency where the legislature is not free to act as a check on the executive, because their electoral mandate is to support the executive.
So we really should push back against the notion of elected/unelected PMs. It's an advantage of a Parliamentary system that the executive can be renewed between elections.
All going pretty well so far. Starship is in orbit, but it looks like the booster made a rather bigger splash than expected on its return.
Yeah it appeared to wobble out of control. Whilst they will want to fix that next time they were disposing of the booster anyway. Otherwise the test has been a smash hit! For comparison Starship is cruising at 234km, which is higher than the 190km apogee achieved by the Mercury MR3 and MR4 sub-orbital hops.
All going pretty well so far. Starship is in orbit, but it looks like the booster made a rather bigger splash than expected on its return.
Yeah it appeared to wobble out of control. Whilst they will want to fix that next time they were disposing of the booster anyway. Otherwise the test has been a smash hit! For comparison Starship is cruising at 234km, which is higher than the 190km apogee achieved by the Mercury MR3 and MR4 sub-orbital hops.
Looked like the algorithms for the grid fins need work. My guess is the oscillations induced propellant slosh which stuffed up the relight for the landing burn.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
The problem is often to do with layers of contracting out.
In my old flat, we all owned the freehold (outright ownership). The managing agent company we used was bought out. The charges started to rise. Someone dug around and found out that the new owners had a model of contracting out all the actual services. So we didn't renew their contract - found someone else to do the job at about the old rate. Cue "You can't do that!".
That's part of it, but there also seems to be an issue with some very poorly-built buildings that are now ruinously expensive to insure and maintain. The cheapest thing to do long-term might be to pull them down and rebuild, but if the costs of insurance/maintenance can be loaded onto the leaseholders then there's no incentive for the freeholder to go down the rebuild route. And the leaseholders wouldn't be able to afford a rebuild in the short-term anyway.
I have a friend who's been absolutely screwed by this. An apartment in Belfast city centre in a building that was found five years ago to have serious structural defects. The architects and builders deny liability, and the statutory guarantee scheme doesn't apply because the defects were found outside of the six year window. Repairs were originally promised but were found to not be economically viable, so the building is to be demolished.
Meanwhile, my friend can't stay overnight in his own flat, so is having to pay rent on top of his mortgage. The leaseholder's buildings insurance will cover the cost of the eventual rebuild, but it's looking increasingly likely that there'll be no compensation for the cost of alternative accommodation or any of the other expenses incurred.
There are various court cases still ongoing... and to add insult to injury, the leaseholder is recovering their legal fees through the service charge!
All going pretty well so far. Starship is in orbit, but it looks like the booster made a rather bigger splash than expected on its return.
What's with the elevator music ?
They are coasting, while testing some things that won’t be shown on live video. ITAR and all that - ITAR covers satellite release mechanism and propellant transfer, in this case, I would think.
That news item is extraordinary. For opinions, they went to CAGE, 5Pillars and Friends of Al Aqsa, which is like writing an article on immigration law then seeking out the wisdom of the KKK, the BNP and Friends of Andrew Tate
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
Yes I know. That's the Form of it. But many people vote based on who they want to be PM. That's the Substance. And you can't ignore the Substance because of the Form.
The problem is that it distorts the entire political system. The logical conclusion to the argument is that MPs shouldn't unseat a PM between elections, because they have no mandate to do so. Boris Johnson should still be PM, right? You risk ending up with a quasi-Presidency where the legislature is not free to act as a check on the executive, because their electoral mandate is to support the executive.
So we really should push back against the notion of elected/unelected PMs. It's an advantage of a Parliamentary system that the executive can be renewed between elections.
I wasn't using "unelected" to mean illegitimate, just as a differentiator from a PM elected via a GE. I actually don't have a problem with our parliamentary system. It's fine.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I'm not predicting the broad sunlit uplands! But I'm guessing we will have seen a couple of quarters of low but positive growth, lower inflation than currently, and one rate cut, maybe two. That's not going to move the needle much but to the extent it does it will probably be in the government's favour.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
There is also the chance that the rapid process of putting together a manifesto and presenting it to the country shows her up as out of her depth, befuddled, inconsistent.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
That news item is extraordinary. For opinions, they went to CAGE, 5Pillars and Friends of Al Aqsa, which is like writing an article on immigration law then seeking out the wisdom of the KKK, the BNP and Friends of Andrew Tate
I think the technique there is “allow the extremists some rope and they will find a tree branch to throw it over, tie an noose and place it round their own necks”
That news item is extraordinary. For opinions, they went to CAGE, 5Pillars and Friends of Al Aqsa, which is like writing an article on immigration law then seeking out the wisdom of the KKK, the BNP and Friends of Andrew Tate
I think the technique there is “allow the extremists some rope and they will find a tree branch to throw it over, tie an noose and place it round their own necks”
Perhaps inviting them back for the Xth time might suggest this isn't an entirely efficent strategy.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I'm not predicting the broad sunlit uplands! But I'm guessing we will have seen a couple of quarters of low but positive growth, lower inflation than currently, and one rate cut, maybe two. That's not going to move the needle much but to the extent it does it will probably be in the government's favour.
As you describe it, why not.
However, what about things moving the needle the other way, to compete with your positive news? Waiting for autumn election for this economic news, it doesn’t come alone. You hold on till later in the year to enjoy the months of better economic news, but it comes with record boat crossings, an interim Covid report, and a million more households saying “how much bigger my mortgage deal?”
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
Yes I know. That's the Form of it. But many people vote based on who they want to be PM. That's the Substance. And you can't ignore the Substance because of the Form.
The problem is that it distorts the entire political system. The logical conclusion to the argument is that MPs shouldn't unseat a PM between elections, because they have no mandate to do so. Boris Johnson should still be PM, right? You risk ending up with a quasi-Presidency where the legislature is not free to act as a check on the executive, because their electoral mandate is to support the executive.
So we really should push back against the notion of elected/unelected PMs. It's an advantage of a Parliamentary system that the executive can be renewed between elections.
I wasn't using "unelected" to mean illegitimate, just as a differentiator from a PM elected via a GE. I actually don't have a problem with our parliamentary system. It's fine.
I elect my MP and by proxy the PM (leader) of the party with the most seats.
Personally where a party is in Government the only people who should have a say in who the next PM is (were he/she to leave office) should be the MPs of the party in Government because they know who is best suited to the job.
Only when a party is outside Government should the party membership be able to select their leader because that is a time when the direction of the party is open to change
It looks like Starship didn't survive reentry. Not too surprising, I think. It must be very difficult to accurately simulate the conditions that a large, unusually shaped vehicle will encounter at reentry speeds, and is obviously impossible to recreate them experimentally.
Edit: Hopefully they got enough data during reentry to be able to figure out why the ship didn't manage it.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
Yes I know. That's the Form of it. But many people vote based on who they want to be PM. That's the Substance. And you can't ignore the Substance because of the Form.
The problem is that it distorts the entire political system. The logical conclusion to the argument is that MPs shouldn't unseat a PM between elections, because they have no mandate to do so. Boris Johnson should still be PM, right? You risk ending up with a quasi-Presidency where the legislature is not free to act as a check on the executive, because their electoral mandate is to support the executive.
So we really should push back against the notion of elected/unelected PMs. It's an advantage of a Parliamentary system that the executive can be renewed between elections.
I wasn't using "unelected" to mean illegitimate, just as a differentiator from a PM elected via a GE. I actually don't have a problem with our parliamentary system. It's fine.
I elect my MP and by proxy the PM (leader) of the party with the most seats.
Personally where a party is in Government the only people who should have a say in who the next PM is (were he/she to leave office) should be the MPs of the party in Government because they know who is best suited to the job.
Only when a party is outside Government should the party membership be able to select their leader because that is a time when the direction of the party is open to change
Yes I think that too - leave it to the MPs if the new leader becomes PM.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
Not for the public seeing you pass though
There are two types of triathletes: those who have peed in their wetsuits, and those who lie...
I have a vision of a bunch of blokes sitting in a pub, when one of them asks how would you persuade women to ride bikes and go for a run while wearing swimsuits. After a bit of head scratching, and a few more pints, they invented Triathlon.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
That's weird. Shouldn't you fly out economy (all excited, who wants to sleep, can't wait, etc) and then fly back business to ease the disappointment of coming home again.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I'm not predicting the broad sunlit uplands! But I'm guessing we will have seen a couple of quarters of low but positive growth, lower inflation than currently, and one rate cut, maybe two. That's not going to move the needle much but to the extent it does it will probably be in the government's favour.
As you describe it, why not.
However, what about things moving the needle the other way, to compete with your positive news? Waiting for autumn election for this economic news, it doesn’t come alone. You hold on till later in the year to enjoy the months of better economic news, but it comes with record boat crossings, an interim Covid report, and a million more households saying “how much bigger my mortgage deal?”
How does it balance on the scales?
Im afraid the news from the usa isnt good. February PPI was 0.6% vs 0.3% consensus. Any rate cuts in the USA will be delayed and the uk will likely follow suit. Also oil prices are rising strongly now up another 2% today.
It looks like Starship didn't survive reentry. Not too surprising, I think. It must be very difficult to accurately simulate the conditions that a large, unusually shaped vehicle will encounter at reentry speeds, and is obviously impossible to recreate them experimentally.
Edit: Hopefully they got enough data during reentry to be able to figure out why the ship didn't manage it.
Are they planning on clearing up all the mess they've made?
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
That's weird. Shouldn't you fly out economy (all excited, who wants to sleep, can't wait, etc) and then fly back business to ease the disappointment of coming home again.
It can be argued both ways. Indeed I think we’ve had this exact debate on PB
If you can only do one part of a return journey in business, which is better?
My argument would be that after a week of rest and sunshine you can cope with economy better, but I can see the opposite view
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
Who said anything about you coming back?
The whole point is you stay there. Get processed. And then what? Given a work permit to do… what?
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
There is also the chance that the rapid process of putting together a manifesto and presenting it to the country shows her up as out of her depth, befuddled, inconsistent.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
She has been accused of wearing military medals to which she was not entitled - I do not recall if this was proved, or disproved, but there always seem to have been suggestions that she might have some rather ugly skeletons in her cupboard,
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
Not for the public seeing you pass though
There are two types of triathletes: those who have peed in their wetsuits, and those who lie...
I have a vision of a bunch of blokes sitting in a pub, when one of them asks how would you persuade women to ride bikes and go for a run while wearing swimsuits. After a bit of head scratching, and a few more pints, they invented Triathlon.
The downside to their plan is that the men get to wear swimsuits as well....
(There's a whole new angle to this I've discovered: swimskins.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
Who said anything about you coming back?
The whole point is you stay there. Get processed. And then what? Given a work permit to do… what?
Knap flints obviously.
The whole point is to send the dirty foreign invasion away. What they do there is their problem not ours. Etc.
In the latest YouGov poll Brexit referendum Leave voters split 32-31 Tory-Reform (Labour on 24).
I wonder if there's the potential for social effects to come into play if there's crossover in this group, even though there wouldn't be crossover overall?
There's quite a few England regions where such a crossover might be close to happening too.
£3,000? To go to Rwanda? Leon - how much would you charge the Flintknapper's Gazette to go on a reporting mission? Can't we just hire asylum seekers like that?
I would absolutely go to Rwanda for £3k!
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
I think that's right. The current government has no positives. None. And that is very rare even in comparison to past failing governments - in the 1970s Labour had Callagahan, who was ahead of Thatcher on leadership ratings and in 1997 the Tories had a competent and heavyweight leadership under Major, Hesletine, Hurd and Clarke and their economic record AFTER black Wednesday was OK. Today's Tories have none of these things.
True and unlike 1997 the general standard of Cabinet members has been pretty mediocre.
Oh the major govt was actually pretty good compared to the mess we have now. In 1997 the country was in pretty goof shape overall. In fact the country was in pretty good shape up until the 2008 financial crisis.
“Ayahuasca was found to speed up the extinction of fear memories in rats by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain. This effect, consistent across new and old memories, points to potential therapeutic uses for anxiety and trauma-related conditions.”
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
There is also the chance that the rapid process of putting together a manifesto and presenting it to the country shows her up as out of her depth, befuddled, inconsistent.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
She has been accused of wearing military medals to which she was not entitled - I do not recall if this was proved, or disproved, but there always seem to have been suggestions that she might have some rather ugly skeletons in her cupboard,
IIRC she was given a mini-badge for the Submarine Service, the dolphins they wear, as a sort of family and honoured VIP guests thing. About as iniquitous as SKS buying a paddock for his mum's OAP donkeys - ie not at all.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I'm not predicting the broad sunlit uplands! But I'm guessing we will have seen a couple of quarters of low but positive growth, lower inflation than currently, and one rate cut, maybe two. That's not going to move the needle much but to the extent it does it will probably be in the government's favour.
As you describe it, why not.
However, what about things moving the needle the other way, to compete with your positive news? Waiting for autumn election for this economic news, it doesn’t come alone. You hold on till later in the year to enjoy the months of better economic news, but it comes with record boat crossings, an interim Covid report, and a million more households saying “how much bigger my mortgage deal?”
How does it balance on the scales?
Im afraid the news from the usa isnt good. February PPI was 0.6% vs 0.3% consensus. Any rate cuts in the USA will be delayed and the uk will likely follow suit. Also oil prices are rising strongly now up another 2% today.
We won’t follow US. It’s presumed they speak the same language as us, but the two economies have completely different DNA, and they speak a foreign language without being able to spell our words.
Not that the financial picture in US is in particularly bad shape this election year as you imply.
“Ayahuasca was found to speed up the extinction of fear memories in rats by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain. This effect, consistent across new and old memories, points to potential therapeutic uses for anxiety and trauma-related conditions.”
I see Patriotic Alternative are one of the far-right groups being labelled as extremist today. I have no sympathy with their politics, but as far as I've been able to tell they've pursued an entirely peaceful electoral strategy, which they've persisted with despite achieving very little success. In a way they're a bit endearingly naive*.
Do we really want to drive such a group underground? What does the government designating then as extremist achieve?
It's better to have this sort of group as part of the democratic process (where I'd hope they'd continue to fail miserably) rather than shut out and driven to further extremes.
Does this mean they won't qualify for a free mailshot at the general election?
And really, can we really hold Patriotic Alternative responsible for making our public debate more extreme? Surely the way in which we've tolerated more mainstream voices in the media who have completely disregarded the difference between fact and fiction has had more of an impact.
* Although it's possible I've confused them with some other group. There are a lot out there.
“Ayahuasca was found to speed up the extinction of fear memories in rats by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain. This effect, consistent across new and old memories, points to potential therapeutic uses for anxiety and trauma-related conditions.”
“Ayahuasca was found to speed up the extinction of fear memories in rats by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain. This effect, consistent across new and old memories, points to potential therapeutic uses for anxiety and trauma-related conditions.”
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
There is also the chance that the rapid process of putting together a manifesto and presenting it to the country shows her up as out of her depth, befuddled, inconsistent.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
Not sure I see her floor as being lower than Sunak’s. He is absolutely crashing and burning right now. Yes she could be as bad, but that’s the gamble.
❗️UNPRECEDENTED HEAT AMERICAS Thousands of records are being brutalized allover the Americas from Mexico to Argentina in nearly every single country, we are witnessing something never seen or even thought possible before. Updates in the next hours...
Hello PBers, a small request from me. I'm looking for somewhere to swim when I'm in London, and came across the Landsdowne Club. I've actually swum in the pool before and it's perfect. They do very reasonably priced membership for people who live out of town (like me). So I thought... do I know anyone who's a member? And I thought I'd ask PB.
The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Great days racing yesterday, Malc - what a Champion Chase. Rachel Blackmore is a monster. She has joined that group of jocks who people know will get every last inch out of their horse and find the win if it is anywhere in there. Awesome.
They might have changed the name but yesterday really was Ladies' Day and Rachel was the lady.
Glad you enjoyed it Topping. I was too busy yesterday and did not even get a chance to get a bet.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
The Penny d'Arc scenario? By far the best communicator is the key factor. It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
There is also the chance that the rapid process of putting together a manifesto and presenting it to the country shows her up as out of her depth, befuddled, inconsistent.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
She has been accused of wearing military medals to which she was not entitled - I do not recall if this was proved, or disproved, but there always seem to have been suggestions that she might have some rather ugly skeletons in her cupboard,
I think the medals thing turned out to be misinformation:
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
I'm not predicting the broad sunlit uplands! But I'm guessing we will have seen a couple of quarters of low but positive growth, lower inflation than currently, and one rate cut, maybe two. That's not going to move the needle much but to the extent it does it will probably be in the government's favour.
As you describe it, why not.
However, what about things moving the needle the other way, to compete with your positive news? Waiting for autumn election for this economic news, it doesn’t come alone. You hold on till later in the year to enjoy the months of better economic news, but it comes with record boat crossings, an interim Covid report, and a million more households saying “how much bigger my mortgage deal?”
How does it balance on the scales?
Im afraid the news from the usa isnt good. February PPI was 0.6% vs 0.3% consensus. Any rate cuts in the USA will be delayed and the uk will likely follow suit. Also oil prices are rising strongly now up another 2% today.
We won’t follow US. It’s presumed they speak the same language as us, but the two economies have completely different DNA, and they speak a foreign language without being able to spell our words.
Not that the financial picture in US is in particularly bad shape this election year as you imply.
Now you are talking nonsense. UK interest rates nearly always track us interest rates and its global cost pressures that are pushing up the ppi. By the way if you are that confident of your outlook go buy uk gilts.
That news item is extraordinary. For opinions, they went to CAGE, 5Pillars and Friends of Al Aqsa, which is like writing an article on immigration law then seeking out the wisdom of the KKK, the BNP and Friends of Andrew Tate
I think the technique there is “allow the extremists some rope and they will find a tree branch to throw it over, tie an noose and place it round their own necks”
Perhaps inviting them back for the Xth time might suggest this isn't an entirely efficent strategy.
I am not aware of Melanie Phillips being shown to be a racist - she does have very firm right wing views. This shows the danger of the 'extremism' tag - we are apparently never again supposed to hear from people who express anything more than anodyne central office approved platitudes. Both Melanie Phillips and Diane Abbot should continue to be heard, and screw the stupid people who imply otherwise.
The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Great days racing yesterday, Malc - what a Champion Chase. Rachel Blackmore is a monster. She has joined that group of jocks who people know will get every last inch out of their horse and find the win if it is anywhere in there. Awesome.
They might have changed the name but yesterday really was Ladies' Day and Rachel was the lady.
Glad you enjoyed it Topping. I was too busy yesterday and did not even get a chance to get a bet.
As an aside my ticket for Scottish National meeting has arrived, looking forward to that.
I see Patriotic Alternative are one of the far-right groups being labelled as extremist today. I have no sympathy with their politics, but as far as I've been able to tell they've pursued an entirely peaceful electoral strategy, which they've persisted with despite achieving very little success. In a way they're a bit endearingly naive*.
Do we really want to drive such a group underground? What does the government designating then as extremist achieve?
It's better to have this sort of group as part of the democratic process (where I'd hope they'd continue to fail miserably) rather than shut out and driven to further extremes.
Does this mean they won't qualify for a free mailshot at the general election?
And really, can we really hold Patriotic Alternative responsible for making our public debate more extreme? Surely the way in which we've tolerated more mainstream voices in the media who have completely disregarded the difference between fact and fiction has had more of an impact.
* Although it's possible I've confused them with some other group. There are a lot out there.
PA like to peddle that they're just an electoral movement, but they are just street fash. I've been at demos opposing PA where their members are swinging fists and sieg heiling - they aren't just another further right wing group. They have also been associated heavily with the riots outside hotels hosting migrants, and the burning of cop cars and the like.
Comments
Stage Star is a Star, but after some average days I hold some doubts and felt tempted by several of the other runners in that one.
I have my greatest confidence in Teahupoo, on basis they targeted Cheltenham.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6CfAciVEsg
Boris at least called an election to get a fresh mandate. But the programme that the Tories were elected on in 2019 has been abandoned twice over.
- Human rights
- Tax rises
- Law and order and police powers
- Restricting the right to protest
- Cutting benefits
- Eliminating waste in public service (of course it's not *your* job they'll eliminate)
- Freedom of movement in the EU
If only Jimmy Chérizier had chosen such a peaceful path.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
Simón Bolivar, the great Liberator, died in an old hacienda 5 minutes from here. As he died he was “Cradled in a hammock formed by the hands of his friends”
Apparently he died penniless despite liberating an entire continent. However I suggest that if you die “cradled in a hammock formed by the hands of your friends” then you die in great prosperity
There's a confusion in language there - anything more than 250W assist whilst pedalling, or at >15.5mph, is a moped or a motorbike not a pedal cycle (Type Approval Regs). As such they require insurance, registration etc and can be enforced upon by police.
E-bike as a term has no meaning, and so Councils such as H&F (who have banned "E-bikes" on the Thames Path by PSPO, ignoring advice they were offered) are up a legal creak with no paddle.
The Govt are currently consulting to double the power of e-bikes which are defined as Pedal Cycles to 500W from 250W, seemingly under the tutelage of the logistics industry. The usual ill-thought through, inept garbage we have come to expect from the current lot.
There are two problems with this:
1 - The more powerful machines cannot be managed / regulated separately from pedal cycles, and so have legal access to all cycling infra - including shared pavements where they exist, such as in my town where the "minimum possible at minimum cost" option for 30 years was shared pavements; other places do painted lanes.
An example of the machines being promoted as meeting this is the articulated cycle-van below. This is a company called City Shuttle.
2 - That makes it difficult for cycles to be recognised as mobility aids by disabled people who use them as such - being able to cycle easily but not walk is common. I volunteer with Wheels for Wellbeing, and this is their statement on this consultation:
https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/e-cycle-250w-to-500w-max-power-change-proposal-position-statement/
The consultation where you can support or object is here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/smarter-regulation-proposed-changes-to-legislation-for-electrically-assisted-pedal-cycles/smarter-regulation-proposed-changes-to-legislation-for-electrically-assisted-pedal-cycles
Or to EAPCConsultation@DfT.gov.uk
By far the best communicator is the key factor.
It's not true that nobody can stop the Tories from losing. Probably half the polling gap disappears the moment she takes over.
https://news.sky.com/story/governments-new-extremism-definition-will-vilify-the-wrong-people-warn-muslim-organisations-13094043
He was previously in the news for leading protests against LGBT education in schools:
https://news.sky.com/story/parents-against-lgbt-lessons-in-school-being-pushed-into-corner-11731820
And for storming the screening of a film:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/muslim-activists-storm-birmingham-screening-kerala-story/
So we really should push back against the notion of elected/unelected PMs. It's an advantage of a Parliamentary system that the executive can be renewed between elections.
Musk is quite the showman.
Meanwhile, my friend can't stay overnight in his own flat, so is having to pay rent on top of his mortgage. The leaseholder's buildings insurance will cover the cost of the eventual rebuild, but it's looking increasingly likely that there'll be no compensation for the cost of alternative accommodation or any of the other expenses incurred.
There are various court cases still ongoing... and to add insult to injury, the leaseholder is recovering their legal fees through the service charge!
Monitors get all the fun! (OR at least funny shoes?)
😶😎😶
Riding the Bomb - Dr Strangelove
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3edi2Wkr5YI
Just a tribute.
She has a turn of phrase, a waving generality, a manner, and a relationship with fact that makes her the closest thing to a replacement Boris the Conservatives have, but I'm not sure she has the outright feral self-centred self-preservation instinct that brought Boris to the top.
Her ceiling is higher than Sunak's, but her floor a lot, lot lower.
At worst she could prove herself to be a pale imitation of Jo Swinson.
Handicapper won it, with unfancied kindly handicapped winner.
You could fly out Business (£1500 one way on Turkish airlines) then have a nice week of holiday; fly back Economy (£500) and still have a couple of hundred left
However, what about things moving the needle the other way, to compete with your positive news? Waiting for autumn election for this economic news, it doesn’t come alone. You hold on till later in the year to enjoy the months of better economic news, but it comes with record boat crossings, an interim Covid report, and a million more households saying “how much bigger my mortgage deal?”
How does it balance on the scales?
Personally where a party is in Government the only people who should have a say in who the next PM is (were he/she to leave office) should be the MPs of the party in Government because they know who is best suited to the job.
Only when a party is outside Government should the party membership be able to select their leader because that is a time when the direction of the party is open to change
Edit: Hopefully they got enough data during reentry to be able to figure out why the ship didn't manage it.
However, in past couple of weeks have notice that the HEADLINES for their bilge have moderated (in at least on sense) considerably.
My guess is that their full-blown Trump-puppetry was NOT bringing in the views AND the bucks.
So now they are trying to sucker viewers into thinking "Forbes Breaking News" is NOT a Josef Goebbels tribute act?
All other countries are run by little girls!"
If you can only do one part of a return journey in business, which is better?
My argument would be that after a week of rest and sunshine you can cope with economy better, but I can see the opposite view
It would probably depend on the season in the UK
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768206863881888195/photo/1
Russia really is an imperialist, fascist state. Shame on those who excuse its actions.
(There's a whole new angle to this I've discovered: swimskins.
https://www.triswimcoach.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/swimskin.jpg
The whole point is to send the dirty foreign invasion away. What they do there is their problem not ours. Etc.
I wonder if there's the potential for social effects to come into play if there's crossover in this group, even though there wouldn't be crossover overall?
There's quite a few England regions where such a crossover might be close to happening too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd0NtQDio20
“Ayahuasca was found to speed up the extinction of fear memories in rats by affecting serotonin receptors in the brain. This effect, consistent across new and old memories, points to potential therapeutic uses for anxiety and trauma-related conditions.”
https://x.com/psypost/status/1766177843267195099?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
For one Spectator writer, it certainly reduced his fear of death
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-secret-to-taking-ayahuasca/
https://fullfact.org/online/penny-mordaunt-dolphins-submarine-badge/
Not that the financial picture in US is in particularly bad shape this election year as you imply.
Do we really want to drive such a group underground? What does the government designating then as extremist achieve?
It's better to have this sort of group as part of the democratic process (where I'd hope they'd continue to fail miserably) rather than shut out and driven to further extremes.
Does this mean they won't qualify for a free mailshot at the general election?
And really, can we really hold Patriotic Alternative responsible for making our public debate more extreme? Surely the way in which we've tolerated more mainstream voices in the media who have completely disregarded the difference between fact and fiction has had more of an impact.
* Although it's possible I've confused them with some other group. There are a lot out there.
❗️UNPRECEDENTED HEAT AMERICAS
Thousands of records are being brutalized allover the Americas from Mexico to Argentina in nearly every single country, we are witnessing something never seen or even thought possible before.
Updates in the next hours...
https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1767537635394814447?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://www.bromley.gov.uk/news/article/669/made-possible-by-reallocated-hs2-funding
Yes that is leafy Bromley council (in south London/ Kent) getting money from the cancellation of train route from Manchester to North London
Image of Penny Mordaunt wearing military medals is digitally altered
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N2YZ1EO/
By the way if you are that confident of your outlook go buy uk gilts.