Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
The LibDem overall national share is meaningless in prediction terms.
A. If it were 6% in every seat they would get zero seats. cf Greens and Reform
B. If it were 50% in 50 seats and 5% in the other 600, then the average would still be around 6% but they would get about 50 seats.
The reality is nearer B than A.
Given that the Lib Dem share of the vote in that poll is about half of what it was in 2019, when the Lib Dems won just 11 seats, perhaps you need to provide some evidence to back up your clain.
Well, in 2019, the LibDems increased their number of votes from 2.4m to 3.7m - that's a jump of more than 50%. And their number of seats fell.
By contrast, in 2017, the LibDems lost both votes and vote share, yet increased their seats by 50%.
Go back to 1997 for the biggest example of this: the LDs dropped almost a million votes, and yet more than doubled their number of seats.
In Scotland, this has been taken to extremes. In terms of vote share, the LibDems were fourth by a long way, getting less than 10% of the vote. Despite getting half the number of votes as Labour, they got 4x as many seats.
The LibDem vote today is much more "spiky" than other parties. They will lose a lot of deposits in the next General Election, but because (a) the Conservative vote share is so far down, and (b) they have managed to establish themselves as the challenger in many seats, then they will likely make substantial gains.
(FWIW, I don't believe they'll get 6%. I think they'll get 10-13%, probably around 12%.)
What should worry the LDs is that lately they have been going backwards in Redfield and Wilton's "Blue Wall" polling of 42 remain-leaning Conservatives seats in Southern England. In 2019 they were 2nd to the Conservatives in about 2/3rds of these, in the rest Labour were 2nd. The series includes highly marginal seats like Cheltenham and Lewes, as well as ones where the LDs are further off but the main contender such as SW Surrey (i.e. Hunt) and Chippenham.
Now on average the LDs got 27.4% of the vote in these seats in 2019, but in the last R&W poll their aggregate share was only 19% and only 21% in the poll before that. Although the last two polls are particularly poor for the LDs, the earlier ones weren't much better - in not one of around 30 Blue Wall polls have the LDs even matched their 2019 vote share.
So in a selection of seats where the average LD vote share in 2019 was well over twice their national vote share, the LDs are not piling on vote share but losing it. They should pick up some of those seats still thanks to the collapse in the Conservative vote, but on the Blue Wall evidence they shouldn't bank on doing any better than they would expect to do under UNS.
Brand new Lidl store opened this morning in Ilford North, next door to the B & Q along the A12. A few Pro-Palestine protesters in attendance (with even fewer police to keep an eye on them) around 11 am. But they were gone by lunch time.
What the fuck does Lidl have to do with Palestine? I do not understand these people.
Have you ever tried to engage with them?
Going along and asking "What the fuck are you 'ere for, then?" or "D'you think they're secretly making Israeli warplanes behind the baked beans shelves?" might not be the best way of finding out, though.
Ten seconds' arduous work finding out about Lidl and the Schwarz Group might be helpful.
Time they read the riot act , got the dogs and rammed these halfwits off the street with a few clatters and teh arse out of their breeks to remind them not to do it again
You really are one of life's hoteliers. An absolute vocation
Brand new Lidl store opened this morning in Ilford North, next door to the B & Q along the A12. A few Pro-Palestine protesters in attendance (with even fewer police to keep an eye on them) around 11 am. But they were gone by lunch time.
What the fuck does Lidl have to do with Palestine? I do not understand these people.
Have you ever tried to engage with them?
Going along and asking "What the fuck are you 'ere for, then?" or "D'you think they're secretly making Israeli warplanes behind the baked beans shelves?" might not be the best way of finding out, though.
Ten seconds' arduous work finding out about Lidl and the Schwarz Group might be helpful.
Time they read the riot act , got the dogs and rammed these halfwits off the street with a few clatters and teh arse out of their breeks to remind them not to do it again
Seems rather unnecessary. They wandered off bored soon enough. Protest (even quixotic protest) is a fundamental freedom that we shouldn't allow the government to control.
Not least because we might want to protest ourselves in the future.
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities. Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
I have seen similar streets all over Africa (the most populous continent by 2100) and in the Middle East, South Asia and rural Russia.
Worth noting that in many countries the Median income is well below the Mean.
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
I have seen similar streets all over Africa (the most populous continent by 2100) and in the Middle East, South Asia and rural Russia.
Worth noting that in many countries the Median income is well below the Mean.
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
AS MAY BE FUCKING OBVIOUS I don't spend all my time abroad in "hotels and resorts"
I will forgive you as you seem to be new here, but I am often accused by PBers of "seeking out dystopias", and it is true I like unusual places. When you travel a lot and for a living, you get jaded by the stuff people normally seek (hotels and resorts). I like lost towns and anonymous cities no one visits, I like shitty places, they have a weird appeal. I agree with this sensible chap on the bestselling Spectator magazine, the world's most prestigious weekly journal
BECAUSE I visit all these lost and forgotten places, I can speak with authority that most people live in better conditions than that awful toilet in Peru. @rcs1000 has given you the stats
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
I have seen similar streets all over Africa (the most populous continent by 2100) and in the Middle East, South Asia and rural Russia.
Worth noting that in many countries the Median income is well below the Mean.
You have yourself admitted you don't travel much these days. The world has vastly changed in the last decade or two. It is much richer for the average person, even as income stagnates in the West
Asia is home to 4.5bn people, most of the world. They don't live on dirt roads
Even in Cambodia (per capita income $2k - very very poor) they mostly don't live on dirt roads
Hester made page one of private eye this week. His company has a profit margin of circa 50% and most (if not all) of its revenue is from the NHS. Funnily enough he has enough cash to punt to the party of Government.
Yes, and this illustrates why another PM would not help the Tories. It is quite incredible that the PM apparently sees nothing wrong with accepting money and even free helicopter ride from someone who has done so well out of contracts awarded by the public sector. There really has been nothing like this in British politics since the 18th century - government has become an exercise in ripping off the public for the personal enrichment of those on the inside track. And the public has rumbled them and is about to take revenge.
18th Century Britannia? Nah. This is Soviet Union gangsterism.
If this was a third world country It would get reported as graft. A large public sector contracts, large profits, followed by gracious donation to the boss class.
Exactly right. The government grants him contracts to deliver his proprietary software to the NHS at a price that delivers him a 50% profit margin. Which makes him a multi-millionaire. He returns some of these profits to the political party of government, as payback for favours received, and doubtless as downpayment on an antipated honour or peerage after retirement. If only he’d kept his mouth shut behind the scenes, the script would all be going to plan. Now it all hangs on whether Sunak is prepared to be as shameless as Johnson and Truss were, when he is shortly turfed out of office.
Former 🇷🇺 President Medvedev, the head of Russia’s ruling party, outlines Moscow’s “peace plan:” unconditional surrender of Ukraine, its dissolution as a subject of international law, reparations to Russia, full absorption into the Russian Federation. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1768266069955780856
He needs a lecture on 'the courage of the white flag'
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
The LibDem overall national share is meaningless in prediction terms.
A. If it were 6% in every seat they would get zero seats. cf Greens and Reform
B. If it were 50% in 50 seats and 5% in the other 600, then the average would still be around 6% but they would get about 50 seats.
The reality is nearer B than A.
Given that the Lib Dem share of the vote in that poll is about half of what it was in 2019, when the Lib Dems won just 11 seats, perhaps you need to provide some evidence to back up your clain.
Well, in 2019, the LibDems increased their number of votes from 2.4m to 3.7m - that's a jump of more than 50%. And their number of seats fell.
By contrast, in 2017, the LibDems lost both votes and vote share, yet increased their seats by 50%.
Go back to 1997 for the biggest example of this: the LDs dropped almost a million votes, and yet more than doubled their number of seats.
In Scotland, this has been taken to extremes. In terms of vote share, the LibDems were fourth by a long way, getting less than 10% of the vote. Despite getting half the number of votes as Labour, they got 4x as many seats.
The LibDem vote today is much more "spiky" than other parties. They will lose a lot of deposits in the next General Election, but because (a) the Conservative vote share is so far down, and (b) they have managed to establish themselves as the challenger in many seats, then they will likely make substantial gains.
(FWIW, I don't believe they'll get 6%. I think they'll get 10-13%, probably around 12%.)
TLDR: The UNS model is crap, when it comes to the performance of third and fourth parties.
Perhaps the Tories are edging towards ditching Sunak and rolling the dice.
Anyone at big odds worthy of a quid? Someone who has charisma, could make a difference and scare Starmer.
Johnny Mercer?
Oh lord. That’s aimed at the idea of that odious prat, not you. He’s also likely to lose his seat under the new boundary changes (86% Labour chance according to electoral calculus).
As a Labour voter this next time, there is one, and only one, person I fear at the helm of the tory party. And it’s not because I think Labour wouldn’t still win but because he would get some people to vote for the tories that no-one else can. Boris is also a born liar and thoroughly dishonest, which makes him dangerous to fight against.
Thankfully he doesn’t want the job back for now.
If he was still an MP, I think it would be odds on Boris lead the Tories into the next election.
Independent of my own analysis for May 2nd and why Autumn is riskier, last 3 or 4 weeks things have shifted around a lot. Firstly talk of a May election if Tories can get uptick and momentum, especially from budget, but that May election talk was completely killed off by the latest Tory polling slump… [fade to black]
And then reanimated because slump is so bad, Truss levels with no apparent floor, Sunak personally at Corbyn levels, MPs, who installed their man Rishi over the lady who was membership choice, have grown so restless it’s certain now May and beyond will be tricky for Sunak, this brings May election back into consideration again.
I know HY will post: if there is a VONC, no problem Sunak will win it, but if true or not that ignores how much weaker he would be after even just a third, just over 100 MPs, voting to put him out.
Others say he can’t be replaced as theres no obvious successor. Maybe not so true with Mourdant topping members and voter polls now versus someone with Corbyn level popularity, but anyway, are such things as letters going in even considering what happens after Sunak’s removal, or do these things exist in another more out of control, we can’t go on like this reality?
Certainly Boris Johnson has more of a future as an MP than Diane Abbott.
The truth here is Abbott was suspended by the party last year after suggesting Jewish people do not face racism, but instead suffer prejudice similar to "redheads". If Labour let her back in after anti semitism as disgusting as that, Starmer’s “I’ve changed my party” that is the central pillar he’s relying on holding in order to to get a Parlaimentary majority, will be in tatters. Sympathy for Abbott for being on the receiving end cannot change what she said - if she was trampled by an escaped rhinosuarus tommorow, her obit will have to mention “thrown out the Labour Party for suggesting Jewish people do not face racism like black people, instead only suffer prejudice similar to "redheads" do.
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
As someone who has believed that travel broadens the mind, remembering the day that I promised myself to find time and space to travel (a promise I believe I have kept), as the 20-year-old self returning on a ferry across rough seas toward the white cliffs after the summer of 1983 spent mostly behind the iron curtain, your existence as the best travelled yet most self-evidently narrow-minded PB regular is always a distressing challenge to my world view.
There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged way that you travel that proves, in the literal historical sense, the rule.
In a word, weather here in Seattle as Noon approaches is - delightful.
Didn't bother to check just now, but warming up fast out on my humble porch. And temps are expected to break 70-degrees Fahrenheit (294-degrees Kelvin) with clear skies.
Sunny and dry (enough but not toooo much) and forecast to stay that way for a while; note that recent rain/snow has rejuvenated our local snowpacks (mostly, somewhat).
Which along with clear skies means great skiing up in the Cascades, provided you are brave enough to brave the traffic jams on roads, slopes AND (the worst) parking lots. ESPECIALLY on weekends; best take bus shuttle!
Best thing about this, is that exodus of skiiers to higher ground, noticeably clears out the lowlands for the rest of us, particularly in parts of Seattle where skiiing is a civic religion for many residents (same for Vancouver BC, Portland OR, Denver CO).
So my take on climate change is this: everywhere in the world is going to get hotter and hotter… apart from the UK which will, uniquely, contrive to get greyer and rainier and even more dismal
Oh well. At least it should discourage the boat people
I agree. Our winters are getting warmer but wetter and more miserable and our summers warmer but cloudier. Still one of the most dismal climates for its latitude in the world is Lima which despite being in the Tropics manages to be under constant grey 8 months of the year.
Indeed. Lima manages to be climatically way more miserable than anywhere in the UK, which is quite a feat given its location. It always annoys me when I read history books or guide books that reference Lima and don’t mention this fairly notable affliction
Why the fuck did the Spanish build their capital there? The incans very sensibly chose sunny and refreshing Cusco
Possibly the worst “place” I have ever been - in terms of climate meeting geography - is the desert north of Lima. The Sechura. It’s a dismal grey sand desert, strewn with trash, and cursed with that same cruel and depressing climate - chilly grey cloud like Glasgow but without the chirpy locals
Also shit food and a history of urgent child sacrifice
One of the worst drives of my life was in the desert north of lima stuck with a mad driver driving like a maniac on a narrow road and swerving at the last minute to avoid oncoming traffic. And yes its bleak and the locals are miserable.
I took this photo on a beach in deserty northern Peru as it seemed to summarise the whole place
However the little colonial towns do have a certain charm, under those sparkling blue skies
Very Quantum of Solace.
Imagine living on that street in the second photo. Wake up, put your head out of the door, hang yourself
Most people in the world live somewhere like that. It's Median Street, Planet Earth, 2024. Most people have never stayed in a hotel, owned a car, held a year's income in a bank account, etc. Yet suicide is more frequent in the USA and Canada than it is in Latin America. And the curious thing: that's with "Latin America" defined as Hispanophone and Lusophone America. There is a single country in South America that tops USA and Canada for self-topping: Guyana.
As someone who constantly travels the world, I can (happily) reassure you that most people do NOT live on a street similar to that street in the 2nd photo: ie on a dirt road, in a concrete shack, in a shitty town in the middle of an awful foggy desert. Northern Peru, as we have established, is unusually hideous
The global median person probably lives in a concrete apartment in a large city in India or China. Not beautiful, but not terrible
Hotels and resorts aren't the world. Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments. That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto). China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities. Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
Well, if you think Uganda (GDP per capita $883) is anything like average for the world, you're insane.
There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).
About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.
Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
We were half way to getting rid of the Mark Anthonys
Have you seen this review of Zone of Interest? Solidified a few of my half finished thoughts on the film which is always helpful. Glazer seems to have annoyed quit a range of people..
No I hadn't seen it but it's a very interesting review. In fact I'm going to read it a second time. I normally watch a film like that a couple of times but couldn't with this one The first viewing to get the technical distractions out of the way and the second as a viewer.
Knowing him as a commercials director where you have to produce striking images and tell a story in 30 45 or 60 seconds with an economy and a style that carries you through and a rationalisation for everything. I thought I'd be able see what he was doing The brilliantly designed and ordered sets. The economy of shots. Every set up moving the story
I didn't get the infra red sequences. I even wondered whether it might be one of those happy accidents that come to you in post. But could someone with such a clear vision and a story board that he's been working on for years slip back into the old advertising tricks? I'll go with the idea suggested by your review
I don't know whether you saw but I mentioned this film earlier in the thread in a different context. After your post I'm going to take a look at the Martin Amis book. As you said at the time it's a film that stays with you so better to get to the bottom of it.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Re your second paragraph, well, that would be the potential prize for her.
I’m not saying this is at all likely, but I do wonder if strategically she might be the best shot they’ve got. She stands a very good chance of losing her seat on current polling, so doesn’t have much to lose right now. She’s not running a government department so doesn’t have a lot of record to attack. And she is by far the Tories’ best communicator. She could make a play for the contrast against Starmer. She’s also the only one who could plausibly run a “we’ve messed up and we need to do better” narrative.
I mean, look, nobody’s going to stop the Tories from losing the next election and it’s entirely plausible the whole thing would backfire and they go down to a humongous defeat. But given it’s staring them in the face anyway, what’s the harm in trying?
I'm surprised if that many Tory voters have heard of Penny Mordaunt.
Is she just "none of the above" - the one who is Not Sunak, Not Boris and Not Cameron?
“Two thirds of Britons (67%) believe it is likely that Israel has committed war crimes during their attack on Gaza since October. Just 10% think this is unlikely.” - @YouGov polling.
PB seems less convinced unless it's just the vocal ones.
You mean two thirds of britons that gave a shit. I suspect thats a small minority most of dont care about palestine or israel and just see it as two shittly little mid east theocracies duking it out as normal
I like plenty of rain. Water is life. I'd much rather live in a place with a bit too much than a lot too little. And when the sun does come out after a wet and dismal winter, just think of the shining green. We are very, very lucky to live where we do.
Actually you’re right
I’m going to stop moaning about the British weather and get back to the office. After all, it’s just weather. I will cope!
Did you zoom that in for the photo, or do you really use it at that magnification?
I like plenty of rain. Water is life. I'd much rather live in a place with a bit too much than a lot too little. And when the sun does come out after a wet and dismal winter, just think of the shining green. We are very, very lucky to live where we do.
Actually you’re right
I’m going to stop moaning about the British weather and get back to the office. After all, it’s just weather. I will cope!
Did you zoom that in for the photo, or do you really use it at that magnification?
Hester made page one of private eye this week. His company has a profit margin of circa 50% and most (if not all) of its revenue is from the NHS. Funnily enough he has enough cash to punt to the party of Government.
Yes, and this illustrates why another PM would not help the Tories. It is quite incredible that the PM apparently sees nothing wrong with accepting money and even free helicopter ride from someone who has done so well out of contracts awarded by the public sector. There really has been nothing like this in British politics since the 18th century - government has become an exercise in ripping off the public for the personal enrichment of those on the inside track. And the public has rumbled them and is about to take revenge.
18th Century Britannia? Nah. This is Soviet Union gangsterism.
If this was a third world country It would get reported as graft. A large public sector contracts, large profits, followed by gracious donation to the boss class.
Exactly right. The government grants him contracts to deliver his proprietary software to the NHS at a price that delivers him a 50% profit margin. Which makes him a multi-millionaire. He returns some of these profits to the political party of government, as payback for favours received, and doubtless as downpayment on an antipated honour or peerage after retirement. If only he’d kept his mouth shut behind the scenes, the script would all be going to plan. Now it all hangs on whether Sunak is prepared to be as shameless as Johnson and Truss were, when he is shortly turfed out of office.
I'm not sure it works like that. NHS England does have a list of approved suppliers but it's for individual organisations to pick a supplier from the list. It feels like Oracle are the market leader in patient records in big trusts and TPP's SystmOne seems to be more for smaller organisations like GP practices. I don't get the sense that ministers have the time or inclination to lean on Directors of IT to get them to recommend TPP's products to their boards.
Comments
Now on average the LDs got 27.4% of the vote in these seats in 2019, but in the last R&W poll their aggregate share was only 19% and only 21% in the poll before that. Although the last two polls are particularly poor for the LDs, the earlier ones weren't much better - in not one of around 30 Blue Wall polls have the LDs even matched their 2019 vote share.
So in a selection of seats where the average LD vote share in 2019 was well over twice their national vote share, the LDs are not piling on vote share but losing it. They should pick up some of those seats still thanks to the collapse in the Conservative vote, but on the Blue Wall evidence they shouldn't bank on doing any better than they would expect to do under UNS.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-3-march-2024/
He seems to be quite happy ahead of time if it all blows up. Admits it too.
Not least because we might want to protest ourselves in the future.
Two thirds of the population of India, the world's most populous country, live outside of cities and so presumably not in apartments.
That photo could easily be from many places in Brazil (even 30 miles from the capital) or Uganda (ditto).
China, yes, mostly apartments - only a third live outside of cities.
Depends how you define median. And cities. I would say they're in a shitty small town somewhere in the third world. Smartphones being the hard drug that's available.
Worth noting that in many countries the Median income is well below the Mean.
The simple things go a long way.
I will forgive you as you seem to be new here, but I am often accused by PBers of "seeking out dystopias", and it is true I like unusual places. When you travel a lot and for a living, you get jaded by the stuff people normally seek (hotels and resorts). I like lost towns and anonymous cities no one visits, I like shitty places, they have a weird appeal. I agree with this sensible chap on the bestselling Spectator magazine, the world's most prestigious weekly journal
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-i-love-terrible-towns/
BECAUSE I visit all these lost and forgotten places, I can speak with authority that most people live in better conditions than that awful toilet in Peru. @rcs1000 has given you the stats
Asia is home to 4.5bn people, most of the world. They don't live on dirt roads
Even in Cambodia (per capita income $2k - very very poor) they mostly don't live on dirt roads
NEW THREAD
The marginal cost of today’s launch was about 100 million dollars.
Which could have put 150 tons into LEO.
The current F9 rocket *costs* about 20 million to put 17 tons into LEO. Reusing stage 1.
So per kilo, Starship is already cheaper as a fully expendable.
The next launch will be carrying Starlink satellites. Almost certainly.
If you can put 5x as many Starlink sats on the Starship stack as F9, it is already the cheapest option.
Independent of my own analysis for May 2nd and why Autumn is riskier, last 3 or 4 weeks things have shifted around a lot. Firstly talk of a May election if Tories can get uptick and momentum, especially from budget, but that May election talk was completely killed off by the latest Tory polling slump… [fade to black]
And then reanimated because slump is so bad, Truss levels with no apparent floor, Sunak personally at Corbyn levels, MPs, who installed their man Rishi over the lady who was membership choice, have grown so restless it’s certain now May and beyond will be tricky for Sunak, this brings May election back into consideration again.
I know HY will post: if there is a VONC, no problem Sunak will win it, but if true or not that ignores how much weaker he would be after even just a third, just over 100 MPs, voting to put him out.
Others say he can’t be replaced as theres no obvious successor. Maybe not so true with Mourdant topping members and voter polls now versus someone with Corbyn level popularity, but anyway, are such things as letters going in even considering what happens after Sunak’s removal, or do these things exist in another more out of control, we can’t go on like this reality?
Certainly Boris Johnson has more of a future as an MP than Diane Abbott.
The truth here is Abbott was suspended by the party last year after suggesting Jewish people do not face racism, but instead suffer prejudice similar to "redheads". If Labour let her back in after anti semitism as disgusting as that, Starmer’s “I’ve changed my party” that is the central pillar he’s relying on holding in order to to get a Parlaimentary majority, will be in tatters. Sympathy for Abbott for being on the receiving end cannot change what she said - if she was trampled by an escaped rhinosuarus tommorow, her obit will have to mention “thrown out the Labour Party for suggesting Jewish people do not face racism like black people, instead only suffer prejudice similar to "redheads" do.
There is either something flawed in your character or something flawed in the privileged way that you travel that proves, in the literal historical sense, the rule.
In a word, weather here in Seattle as Noon approaches is - delightful.
Didn't bother to check just now, but warming up fast out on my humble porch. And temps are expected to break 70-degrees Fahrenheit (294-degrees Kelvin) with clear skies.
Sunny and dry (enough but not toooo much) and forecast to stay that way for a while; note that recent rain/snow has rejuvenated our local snowpacks (mostly, somewhat).
Which along with clear skies means great skiing up in the Cascades, provided you are brave enough to brave the traffic jams on roads, slopes AND (the worst) parking lots. ESPECIALLY on weekends; best take bus shuttle!
Best thing about this, is that exodus of skiiers to higher ground, noticeably clears out the lowlands for the rest of us, particularly in parts of Seattle where skiiing is a civic religion for many residents (same for Vancouver BC, Portland OR, Denver CO).
There are 8 billion people on Planet Earth (give or take).
About 1.4bn of them are North America or Europe. They're pretty well off, on average. About 1.3bn are in China. They are dramatically richer than they were 20 years ago. And that's true of most of Asia.
Median incomes and lifestyles have increased extraordinarily in the last 20 years. I mean some places, like rural Russia, have gone backwards. But most places are dramatically richer than they were.
The first viewing to get the technical distractions out of the way and the second as a viewer.
Knowing him as a commercials director where you have to produce striking images and tell a story in 30 45 or 60 seconds with an economy and a style that carries you through and a rationalisation for everything. I thought I'd be able see what he was doing The brilliantly designed and ordered sets. The economy of shots. Every set up moving the story
I didn't get the infra red sequences. I even wondered whether it might be one of those happy accidents that come to you in post. But could someone with such a clear vision and a story board that he's been working on for years slip back into the old advertising tricks? I'll go with the idea suggested by your review
I don't know whether you saw but I mentioned this film earlier in the thread in a different context. After your post I'm going to take a look at the Martin Amis book. As you said at the time it's a film that stays with you so better to get to the bottom of it.
What do you think of it now?
Is she just "none of the above" - the one who is Not Sunak, Not Boris and Not Cameron?