I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
Yes, agree, but for whatever reason they’ve been getting little or no air-time and TV exposure recently. I don’t think that’ll be the case close to the GE, after Christmas, and if they do as well as they might in the locals the media will suddenly wake up.
They no longer have third party status, so don't get the coverage. And doing sensible stuff - which is supposed to be something if a selling point for them - doesn't attract it, either
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
“ I expect after May’s locals is when Sunak will be at maximum risk when the Tories get spanked at the local elections with Tory councillors set to play the role of the troops at Gallipoli under First Sea Lord Sunak.”
Dear TSE , you do realise this is just one of the strong reasons to have May 2nd General Election, which you long time poo poo’d?
As we now get closer to all the reasons becoming reality, bad locals, covid report, slow cutting of interest rates, surge in boat crossings, is it only now you come awake to the dangerous, Swingback killing, impact of them?
One of us is going to be proven right in the next week.
When If I am proven right I will be magnanimous in victory.
They are Leaving it a bit late, like a review in cricket waiting till the last second to give the T sign after a lot of shoulder shrugging at each other. If they came out to the lectern shortly after the budget announcing it with a bit of chutzpah, at least it would have seemed like part of a master plan up their sleeves. 🤷♀️
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Wasn't that what they said last time? And the time before that, and possibly the time before that...
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
Scientists generally advocate for permanent ST [Standard Time], or “natural time,” as Gentry calls it because it better aligns people’s schedules with the sun year-round. “People who study the issue are all in agreement,” he said.
And yet when permanent daylight time was tried both here and in America, we came off it. From unscientific observation though, a lot of drivers are taken by surprise when sudden darkness arrives in autumn.
It could make a material difference to the number of pedestrians getting hit by cars. Fridays in December have significantly more casualties than any other time, with a cluster from 5pm - 6pm.
You want to reduce the number of people commuting in the dark as far as possible.
You do but I'm not sure how much difference dst makes to December commuters. It is dark in winter anyway and roads more likely to be wet or even icy. And why Friday? As I mentioned earlier, when the clocks do go back at the end of October, there can be a shock element that this week's drive home is in the dark when it was light last week, and a few new drivers might even be seeing dark roads for the first time, but that will wear off.
Yet another bit of the Biden investigation which now appears to have been orchestrated by Trump and his minions.
Company that paid (now indicted) FBI informant tied to Trump associates in Dubai, records reveal
Alexander Smirnov was paid $600,000 in 2020 – the same year he allegedly began lying to FBI about Bidens’ role in Ukraine business https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/14/company-paying-fbi-informant-trump-connections ...Smirnov is now accused of lying to the FBI about Hunter Biden and his father, President Joe Biden, alleging that they engaged in a bribery scheme with executives at Ukrainian energy company Burisma. Smirnov’s accounts to the FBI, beginning in 2020, that federal prosecutors now say are impossible fabrications, served as a major justification of the House impeachment investigation into the Bidens...
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
As has been commented before, if opposition voters suddenly all decided to vote tactically, the LD national VI would actually go down.
The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
The basic problem for the Tories is that the two flagship policies that they have championed over the past 14 years - austerity and then Brexit - have both proved to be ignominious failures which have left almost everyone in the country worse off.
It's quite unusual for a government to fail on so many levels at once - Labour's public services improvements in the 2000s and the Tories' economic reforms of the 1980s were enduring achievements which succeeded on their own terms and improved the lives of the majority, a fact even people who opposed them were forced to concede. Today's Tories have no similar achievements to boast about and 2p off NI cannot disguise that dismal fact.
Hoyle's problem is as much that he has very little sense about when his bending the rules might offend the House, and when it might be overlooked by everyone.
It is, after all, only MPs who can question House procedures, whatever the rules say.
You probably WOULD complain. Typically only 12 MPs other than the leaders actually get called. Over the year that means that you''ll get lucky maybe once, but probably less if you're not very senior (I was called IIRC half a dozen times in 13 years). Would you be happy to see your only chance in the rest of this Parliament be taken away in favour of an MP wanting to put her view on a current issue?
It's not a guideline, it's a rule in how the job is to be conducted, as much a part of the regulations as the rules for counting votes. Personally I think the rule should be changed to allow more flexibility, and 6 questions for the LOTO is probably two more than are needed. But people who say "oh well, he could just ignore it" don't understand how the Commons works. That's the problem, not Hoyle.
Bercow used to regularly go way over the 30 minutes. I'm sure Hoyle could have found a way to give Abbott a question had he been determined to so do. It needn't have been in place of another MP's question (though obviously there'd have been an opportunity cost somewhere); tacking a supplementary on at the end might have been an option, as could have been giving her Ed Davey's spot and deferring his question for next week.
Part of Hoyle's appeal when he was elected was that he intended to stop PMQs from dragging on too much.
That said, they have been unusually short since the Gaza debacle - 30 minutes exactly last week, just under 34 minutes this. Normally they'd run on for 35-40 minutes.
So I suspect that this comes down to Hoyle being overly cautious as a result of the criticism he's faced.
(I do agree that not calling Ed Davey would have been the best solution in this instance - it would have meant that he could have got all the way down the order paper and then given a final Q to Abbot, likely taking about 40 minutes at most. And Davey seemed fairly surprised to have been called!)
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
As has been commented before, if opposition voters suddenly all decided to vote tactically, the LD national VI would actually go down.
The Lib Dems need to decide what they are for, as well as what they're against. In a 3-party democracy, they could get away with being 'not the other two', particularly where one of the other two was a fairly marginal presence anyway. In a 5+ party system, they can't.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
The local runners ar elike that - at the height of covid I saw one nearly knock a very little old lady and her dog over by just running along the pavcement as if she didn't exist. If she hadn't cowered to the wall she'd be in hospital with a broken hip and dead. Another one wanted to fight me when I yelped in sheer surprose when he rushed between me and the wall without warning. Lycra is obligatory, as is a digital computer masquerading as a watch.
PS Both obviously middle aged professional types. And male.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
I think an ill-judged shadow Budget, with an increase in fuel duty, would do a lot of the work. Maybe a secret recording of Starmer giving a more pro-Palestinian view to Muslim lobbyists.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
I think an ill-judged shadow Budget, with an increase in fuel duty, would do a lot of the work. Maybe a secret recording of Starmer giving a more pro-Palestinian view to Muslim lobbyists.
Would be enough to damage trust and create fear.
That might dent the polls a bit. It wouldn't lose the election for Labour.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
I think an ill-judged shadow Budget, with an increase in fuel duty, would do a lot of the work. Maybe a secret recording of Starmer giving a more pro-Palestinian view to Muslim lobbyists.
Would be enough to damage trust and create fear.
Would it? The public have more sympathy for the Palestinians than the Israelis.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Still don't see it. Various bits of good news on the economy aren't cutting through at the moment. What would change?
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Still don't see it. Various bits of good news on the economy aren't cutting through at the moment. What would change?
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
Yeah, I think it is mode-independent (as Carnyx said below as well).
I walk, ride and drive. At times I'm a bad pedestrian, cyclist and driver. I *try* to learn when I make mistakes so I don't make them in the future. IME some people don't want to accept they make mistakes, therefore never learn, and end up being @sshats whatever they're doing.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
I think an ill-judged shadow Budget, with an increase in fuel duty, would do a lot of the work. Maybe a secret recording of Starmer giving a more pro-Palestinian view to Muslim lobbyists.
Would be enough to damage trust and create fear.
Would it? The public have more sympathy for the Palestinians than the Israelis.
It would be the saying one thing publicly and another thing privately that would do the damage. The public wouldn't know what else he was saying where they couldn't hear it.
The specifics aren't important. The point is that it's still possible for Starmer to lose trust and become an object of fear to the electorate. And then he loses. I don't expect it to happen, but if the Tories form the next government it will have been the key to the turnaround.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
A twat remains a twat, regardless of their mode of transport.
Encouraging anti-ULEZ vandalism is both militant extremism and undermining (local) democracy, under the new definitions.
Liz Truss should be worried - part of her Health and Equalities Acts (Ammendment) Bill seeks to remove equalities protections from trans people, so fairly clearly falls under the "negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others" part of the new definition.
Presumably, the people advocating for withdrawal from the ECHR will also be caught by that clause.
Reflecting on PMQs yesterday, Sunak sounds angry and petulant. Not because Starmer is getting the better of him, I genuinely think Sunak believes that his policies are right and good and why won't people turn their fire on Starmer?
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
A twat remains a twat, regardless of their mode of transport.
Well it's in the name, isn't it? Total Wankers on All Transport
Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns tells @BBCr4today Rishi Sunak must be ousted as leader before the election to win back disaffected Conservative voters
They just don’t get that it’s the Conservative Party that’s the problem, not the leader.
“Boris still has that stardust” she said. If only we had a Conservative government we could turn things round. She actually said that.
She also commented that when she goes door knocking about a third are Labour, a third Tory and the rest undecided former Tory voters. Well in 2019 Labour got 35% of the vote so she’s either very selectively knocking or Morley & Outwood is a unique constituency where Labour are going backwards,
I get where people like @isam are coming from with Johnson. He will inspire more 2019 Tories to vote Tory. He is actively liked by a section of that vote in a way that no other Tory is. No-one is going to positively vote for Sunak. However, there is another side to the equation: Johnson is toxic in a way that Sunak is not. Those who dislike him really dislike him = and there are an awful lot of these people around. Johnson as leader would galvanise the anti-Tory vote and maximise anti-Tory tactical voting. The overall result? More Tory votes nationally, but perhaps very few - if any - extra Tory seats.
I think you put your finger on why the Johnson discourse is a dialogue of the deaf.
Those who never liked him and couldn’t see what the fuss was about (in some cases through exposure to his type in other walks of life) cannot grasp how he could be remotely popular, so they refuse to believe it.
Those who really like him find it extremely difficult to imagine a world where others wouldn’t.
It’s a mutual blind spot. The key then is the rest of the country, the maybe 60% who were more prosaic in their assessment of him. Immune from the stardust but happy to appreciate his good points.
I hate him but I do get the appeal. No other Con leader could have pulled off what he did in winning that 80 seat majority. Yes, Corbyn helped a lot, and it was mainly about Brexit, but there was plenty of 'Boris' in the mix too. It's churlish and wrong to deny this. I don't know why people strain so much to do so.
However he had to be canned, his low character had been too well exposed and as a consequence his appeal is not what it was. The 'B' brand is badly tarnished. He's history, really, but as a pure hypothetical you can try and assess how the Cons would do in the coming election if somehow he could be magicked back as PM. I think he'd be worth about 25 seats.
Watching the documentary, I rather warmed for the first time to Jeremy Corbyn who spoke quite a lot and had some interesting insight into Boris' character. I think his appeal had a lot to do with the cult of celebrity, the sort of TV programmes people like, their low attention span, dislike of somebody "boring".
That’s more or less it. I wrote a header on here about the effect of a leader’s personality/charisma on elections. IPSOS have been asking the question for 45 years, and it seems to be more of an asset as time goes on; this isn’t necessarily a good thing, it’s probably actually bad because of the low attention span/crap reality tv age we seem to be living in, but it is so.
The fact that Boris beat Sir Keir by record margins in this respect, according to IPSOS, makes the mistake the Tories made by shelving him all the worse. Even if he were doing as badly as Sunak is now, there would have been hope for them, but now there’s none.
I really don’t set any store by net ratings, I think they’re a massive red herring. Who cares if people who aren’t voting Tory RRRREALLY hate Boris, but only have mild disdain for Sunak/Cameron/May etc? It doesn’t matter. Get the votes in.
Boris only got 300k more votes in 2019 than May in 2017, but won a huge majority rather than a hung parliament. How does that fit with his ‘more votes but fewer seats’ because of his divisiveness?
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
A twat remains a twat, regardless of their mode of transport.
The thing people tend to forget is a twat driving an SUV is far more likely to kill someone than a twat doing anything else.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
It would be an error to write Reform off as 'the racist party'. There are other polices they have like scrapping net zero , reducing the size of the state, increasing the size of the army etc that set them apart from other parties and have an appeal beyond even the conservative party because none of the other parties promote them.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
Yes. Politically they're beyond the event horizon now.
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
Short of Starmer personally stealing and selling plutonium to North Korea, with the enthusiastic participation of the entire Shadow Cabinet?
I think an ill-judged shadow Budget, with an increase in fuel duty, would do a lot of the work. Maybe a secret recording of Starmer giving a more pro-Palestinian view to Muslim lobbyists.
Would be enough to damage trust and create fear.
Would it? The public have more sympathy for the Palestinians than the Israelis.
There is an Israeli ref in the Villa-Ajax match later. I wondered if there was an angle in backing Muslim players getting booked.
1.Sunak is persuaded that an early death is preferable. We'll know by this time next week. 2. Sunak passes on May, but Brady informs him that enough letters are in. Sunak decides on Operation Samson and goes to the palace and we get an election soon after the locals 3. As (2) but the King tells him to do one. We get a brutal Tory bloodletting election where the unhappy loser find themself Prime Minister of a dead government facing annihilation. 4. Skip the trip to see the King, but enough letters go in after the locals disaster and Sunak is ousted 5. The dream scenario. Play out 3 or 4. Where Sunak survives. A leadership election is triggered but there is no alternative candidate. A Zombie PM of a dead government with a party clinging to office because 6 months of paycheques is better than the dole.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
A twat remains a twat, regardless of their mode of transport.
The thing people tend to forget is a twat driving an SUV is far more likely to kill someone than a twat doing anything else.
That is true.
Given the increasing size and power of the eBikes, combined with the insanity with which they are ridden (worse than the perpetually L plated scooter riders), I wonder where they are in the stats, though.
The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Great days racing yesterday, Malc - what a Champion Chase. Rachel Blackmore is a monster. She has joined that group of jocks who people know will get every last inch out of their horse and find the win if it is anywhere in there. Awesome.
They might have changed the name but yesterday really was Ladies' Day and Rachel was the lady.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
It would be an error to write Reform off as 'the racist party'. There are other polices they have like scrapping net zero , reducing the size of the state, increasing the size of the army etc that set them apart from other parties and have an appeal beyond even the conservative party because none of the other parties promote them.
Increase defence spending by 50% and start Income tax at £20k are typical examples of Reform's policies.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
New leader, new cabinet, run against your own record.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
It's part of an industry where the people choosing suppliers don't pay the bills and so have little incentive to care. In some cases there may be a "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" mentality, in others possibly more sinister issues where the company choosing the supplier has some kid of relationship with the supplier.
The obvious thing seems to be to legally involve the leaseholders in the choice of supplier, which would put a strong price inventive on the choices. But I can see the freeholder also needs to have some input where it relates to fundamental upkeep. The freeholder should be able to make sure that the maintenance that stops a block of flats collapsing happens; the leaseholders should be able to decide whether they want to pay for someone to come and change bulbs in the communal stairwells (and the communal gardens ) or organise it themselves and also give the boot to companies that take the piss.
The Festival Day 3 🐎 having assembled a team of returning Cheltenham winners and up and coming future megastars, I feel much more confident about my chances of adding to my 3 winners today, Cheltenham 1.30 - Colonel Harry Cheltenham 2.10 - Gaoth Chuil Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Teahupoo Cheltenham 4:10 - In Excelsis Deo Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy* Cheltenham 5.30 - Whacker Clan
*I never pick horses just because of my or family names in it, this horse will finish somewhere in the top 2, call me out if it doesn’t
Have a good day.
Mine for today , not much time so will just have trixie/singles on 1:30, 2:50 and 3:30 Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
Great days racing yesterday, Malc - what a Champion Chase. Rachel Blackmore is a monster. She has joined that group of jocks who people know will get every last inch out of their horse and find the win if it is anywhere in there. Awesome.
They might have changed the name but yesterday really was Ladies' Day and Rachel was the lady.
Rachel seems like a really nice person. Most jockeys come across cocky and competitive and not people persons.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
My brother has been caught up in some pretty disgraceful sharp practices by his managing agents and discovered recently that they had done away with AGM’s, which apparently they can do by law.
So managing agents wield the power without any accountability. How can that possibly be right?
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
It would provide additional material for future scholars of 'the Ridiculous Parliament'.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
The problem is often to do with layers of contracting out.
In my old flat, we all owned the freehold (outright ownership). The managing agent company we used was bought out. The charges started to rise. Someone dug around and found out that the new owners had a model of contracting out all the actual services. So we didn't renew their contract - found someone else to do the job at about the old rate. Cue "You can't do that!".
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
It would be an error to write Reform off as 'the racist party'. There are other polices they have like scrapping net zero , reducing the size of the state, increasing the size of the army etc that set them apart from other parties and have an appeal beyond even the conservative party because none of the other parties promote them.
Its the same issue with labelling all those who voted for Brexit as thick racists. It might make you feel good about yourself, but it masks the plethora of reasons people had for voting to leave.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
Judging by result alone 1997 is a yes, and arguably 1945 (although other reasons perhaps applied there).
Lord Ashcroft does not have a normal voting intention question:
We ask voters how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election on a scale from 0 to 100. Among 2019 Conservatives, the mean likelihood of voting Tory again was 42/100 (down from 48 in my February poll), while Labour voters’ likelihood of sticking with their party was 69/100 (up from 66 last month).
Taking those who put their chances of voting for their highest-rated party at 50/100 or above, the implied vote shares are Labour 45%, Conservative 23%, Reform UK 11%, Green 8% and Lib Dem 6%.
So these voting intentions do not include anyone who is undecided between multiple parties - eg might vote Lib Dem 48% of the time, but Labour 30% and Green 22%.
According to the underlying data table 36% of the sample would be in this position (including would not say). However there is some reduction in detail as to how that 36% split their voting intentions probabilities.
So percentage polling figures for each party is not comparable to other polling companies.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
Does she know what a woman or, or more to the point would that issue become a millstone around her neck in the campaign ?
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
Another argument for bringing in a new PM is that it would allow them to play up the idea that you vote for a party, not a leader, so it's risky to treat a vote for Labour as a vote for Starmer.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
The mood - if the economy had accidentally grown by 25% last month, and as a result income tax could be reduce to pretty much zero, the response would be a further drop in the polls.
The government have reached a place that anything they do right is ignored, and every fuck up is magnified. Once a government is in that hole, it's almost impossible for them to get out.
New leader, new cabinet, run against your own record.
I hear house prices around here have suddenly plummeted....
So the solution to the housing crisis is trisuits?
Yeah, just make me run around the neighbourhood in a trisuit.
The combination of me and a trisuit has the most negative effect on house prices...
A close relative rows. I am still nerving my self up to tell him that the days when a rowing onesie was suitable are gone. For him.
Hey! I'm nearly 51 and I'm just introducing myself to sports onesies.
I've recently done a couple of rides in cycling shorts, and I wonder why I've never come across them before. They're so much more comfortable.
I presume, given all the running, that you do not resemble the FMOF (Fat Men On Fixies*) who appear locally, from time to time. Who resemble an attack of brightly coloured zeppelins.
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
Not up to me to say what I looked like really; Mrs J seems to like me in it though.
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Bad manners on the street (including pavement) is independent of the mode of transport.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
Yeah, I think it is mode-independent (as Carnyx said below as well).
I walk, ride and drive. At times I'm a bad pedestrian, cyclist and driver. I *try* to learn when I make mistakes so I don't make them in the future. IME some people don't want to accept they make mistakes, therefore never learn, and end up being @sshats whatever they're doing.
It's always someone else's fault.
Indeed. Though in my experience also gender- and age-dependent - the female runners and the oldies are much less intimidating and aggressive.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
Yes, agree, but for whatever reason they’ve been getting little or no air-time and TV exposure recently. I don’t think that’ll be the case close to the GE, after Christmas, and if they do as well as they might in the locals the media will suddenly wake up.
They no longer have third party status, so don't get the coverage. And doing sensible stuff - which is supposed to be something if a selling point for them - doesn't attract it, either
They've successfully picked out a couple of niches - water, being one - which play well in their blue wall target seats, but seem to have little to say about anything else.
But, with the Tories having abandoned so much ground recently, there are bound to be other topics that the LDs might now be able to steal for themselves. Green infrastructure, modern slavery, conversion therapy, maybe even some aspects of levelling up if they're feeling particularly cheeky.
There's no way that the Tories are going to be interested in reclaiming any of those in the foreseeable future, so there's plenty of scope for the Lib Dems to make them their own.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
Judging by result alone 1997 is a yes, and arguably 1945 (although other reasons perhaps applied there).
Strictly speaking we can’t really judge by result alone since we don’t yet have the 2024 result
Seriously, I think this is far worse than 1997. Despite the tories messing up Black Wednesday and sleaze in the Major years, this period since 2019 has been like nothing any of us born since 1945 have ever experienced. That’s on so many levels, not all of them of the Government’s making but many of them are. And the ones that were from outside they’ve most managed to screw up.
I think they’re far more unpopular than 1997. But Starmer is no Blair, which is the only straw left that the tories have to clutch.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
Simply make these service charges illegal. Contract law already prevents clauses which are unreasonable. A 687% increase in 7 years is unreasonable.
Yes, there is no way the service provider has seen 687% inflation.
Also look at charges for people who buy caravans or lodges on places like Parkdean and Haven sites. The Panorama the other day only scratched at the surface of it really.
People pay a fortune for caravans and see their site fees increase dramatically with no recourse and if they miss the payment day they are kicked off the site and they have little legal rights.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
Judging by result alone 1997 is a yes, and arguably 1945 (although other reasons perhaps applied there).
Strictly speaking we can’t really judge by result alone since we don’t yet have the 2024 result
Seriously, I think this is far worse than 1997. Despite the tories messing up Black Wednesday and sleaze in the Major years, this period since 2019 has been like nothing any of us born since 1945 have ever experienced. That’s on so many levels, not all of them of the Government’s making but many of them are. And the ones that were from outside they’ve most managed to screw up.
I think they’re far more unpopular than 1997. But Starmer is no Blair, which is the only straw left that the tories have to clutch.
You have been consistent with your view on that. There is not long to go now until we see if you are vindicated.
I think for the vast majority it is a case of how bad the Tory defeat will be. I do not see anyone expecting a win, a hung parliament is the best outcome expected.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
I’m unconvinced.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
I think that's right. The current government has no positives. None. And that is very rare even in comparison to past failing governments - in the 1970s Labour had Callagahan, who was ahead of Thatcher on leadership ratings and in 1997 the Tories had a competent and heavyweight leadership under Major, Hesletine, Hurd and Clarke and their economic record AFTER black Wednesday was OK. Today's Tories have none of these things.
Thanks indeed for fixing the "like" issue @TSE , that is most welcome. Liking your own posts, however, is surely not proper form. I appreciate that this was an accident.
Thanks indeed for fixing the "like" issue @TSE , that is most welcome. Liking your own posts, however, is surely not proper form. I appreciate that this was an accident.
Indeed, I will never knowingly like one of my own posts.
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
It would be an error to write Reform off as 'the racist party'. There are other polices they have like scrapping net zero , reducing the size of the state, increasing the size of the army etc that set them apart from other parties and have an appeal beyond even the conservative party because none of the other parties promote them.
I guess they wrote their manifesto by sitting in the corner of a Home Counties saloon bar of a weekend afternoon and just writing down everything they heard.
Yesterday in Parliament Diane Abbott stood up 46 times to try and catch the Speaker's eye so that during a debate when other MPs were talking about her, about misogyny and racism and violence against women, she could say her piece.
But no. Women can be seen. But not heard.
I rather dislike Diane Abbott. I’m pretty sure she’s an anti-white racist; she’s said too many unpleasant things too often
However, you are absolutely right. We’re a democracy, she’s an MP, in this debate of all debates she should have been given her chance to speak. A shameful failure in the Mother of Parliaments
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Good lord!
We know what is going on, but do we know why? Why down and down against backdrop of giveaway budget warmly received, and inflation beaten, report yesterday of economic growth and mortgage costs falling?
Is it electorate anger at not getting spring election, or is it Sunak is so not rated now it’s pulling the party to new depths?
If you know why, let number 10 know, because they can’t do anything about it unless they know why.
Fwiw I think a backdrop of somewhat better economic news in the next couple of quarters will lift the Tory fortunes enough to rule out some of the more lurid electoral outcomes but not enough to prevent a significant defeat.
Okay.
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters. And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
Lord Ashcroft has published a poll. I missed it if it was shared here. Fieldwork 7-11th March, changes with 8-12th Feb CON 23% (-4) LAB 45% (+2) LDM 6% (-1) GRN 8% (nc) RFM 11% (+1)
Disastrous for the Lib Dems as well as the Tories. A situation like this, when the Tories are extremely unpopular, should be the best possible one for the Lib Dems. Instead, they are doing worse than ever.
A degree of wait and see is in order. The next GE is likely to see tactical voting to a greater extent than sometimes. What counts with the LDs is where those votes are. In reality their range is more like that of the SNP (though they pretend otherwise of course), who of course get seats without many votes in national terms.
This is one area where the campaign itself will be important. The LDs won't be sending out bar charts in Bootle or South Holland but they will in 40+ seats they can win.
Given their hatred of FPP, it would be amusing in the extreme if tactical voting means the Liberals' seat count exceeds their popular vote.
Think they would manage to cope with it. The key seems to me to be the effect of a third of the Conservative vote in "safe" seats going to Reform. The Reform vote is likely to be stronger where either a significant part of the electorate don't care or think that there is no danger of the Conservatives losing. The Liberal Democrats and even the Galloways or the Greens could pick up some unexpected seats.
There was a guy at our local primary campaign meeting last night, who claimed to have come along hoping to be persuaded not to vote Conservative next time, but who also claimed to be out regularly canvassing for the Tories, who he's supported since Blair. Putting aside that somewhat bizarre backstory, he said they are finding tons of Reform voters here in east wight.
It would be an error to write Reform off as 'the racist party'. There are other polices they have like scrapping net zero , reducing the size of the state, increasing the size of the army etc that set them apart from other parties and have an appeal beyond even the conservative party because none of the other parties promote them.
Its the same issue with labelling all those who voted for Brexit as thick racists. It might make you feel good about yourself, but it masks the plethora of reasons people had for voting to leave.
True, but you can't completely avoid generalisations in discussing why people vote the way they do.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
Not as our system is set up. You won't be going into a booth on May 2nd/Oct/Jan 2025 to vote for Starmer or Sunak, it will be a list of candidates in your constituency. You might choose who you vote for on other lines, but PM's are not 'unelected' if they are changed mid-parliament.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention. Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies. I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
It's part of an industry where the people choosing suppliers don't pay the bills and so have little incentive to care. In some cases there may be a "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" mentality, in others possibly more sinister issues where the company choosing the supplier has some kid of relationship with the supplier.
The obvious thing seems to be to legally involve the leaseholders in the choice of supplier, which would put a strong price inventive on the choices. But I can see the freeholder also needs to have some input where it relates to fundamental upkeep. The freeholder should be able to make sure that the maintenance that stops a block of flats collapsing happens; the leaseholders should be able to decide whether they want to pay for someone to come and change bulbs in the communal stairwells (and the communal gardens ) or organise it themselves and also give the boot to companies that take the piss.
There are already mechanisms whereby the leaseholders can take control of the process but most commonly the leaseholders end up blaming each other and then the decline and real problems start.
You can't just outlaw the practice of increasing service charges as suggested upthread because all the costs are real, for the most part. Unless you have someone actively managing the costs and a degree of collective risk aversion (very difficult to achieve) on the part of the leaseholders they spiral out of control as is the case at the housing associations described above. The problem is fundamentally one of complex regulation and case law for which 'greedy freeholders and managing agents' get blamed.
Worse is to come. Some of the blocks of flats being built now have obligations to maintain drainage tanks at specific discharge rates, CCTV systems, waste collections, parking management measures etc for the lifetime of the development. They will rapidly result in over £1k per month service charges.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
It would provide additional material for future scholars of 'the Ridiculous Parliament'.
And I guess you could apply the 'if it's not breakable because it's broken why not keep kicking it around?" principle.
The Tories are absolutely doomed but to be honest a campaign led by Mordaunt might be their best chance of avoiding oblivion right now. She surely can’t do any worse.
She has more upside and less downside than Sunak. In the worst case she'll be a bit wooden and fail to turn things around, but in the best case she'll grow in stature and her sense of humour will pay off in a campaign against Starmer.
If they hadn't done the Big Stupid - ie opted for Liz Truss - they could probably have squeezed in another change of leader before the election. But as it is, no. A fourth PM, three unelected, in one parliament would be too too ridiculous.
Can we drop this ridiculous idea that the public 'elects' PMs? We don't. We elect MP's and then a PM is the person who can command a majority of said MPs. The idea that a changed PM is somehow unelected is juvenile.
It's not at all juvenile. There's a large and meaningful difference between becoming PM via a national vote at a GE and a vote only of the MPs and members of one political party.
So a vote by all the MPs would be OK? I'd agree that the MPs in the majority party passing on their responsibility to unelected party members is pretty undemocratic.
Liz Truss said the other day that over the last 30 years elected representatives had lost power to unelected organisations. I suppose she had in mind things like the 1998 Conservative Party rule change that took the final choice of Conservative leader (and therefore sometimes PM) away from MPs - must be one of the biggest examples in the UK.
Comments
*They probably aren't fixies but they ride with the aggressive style of those who claim "I can't stop"
And doing sensible stuff - which is supposed to be something if a selling point for them - doesn't attract it, either
But elections are a relative contest, so there's still a route away from oblivion, marked "the greatest Opposition blunder in history".
..........It's the way he tells them
There's another phenomena, separate from FMOFs: Pepparami in Lycra. Stick-like men wearing garish cycling gear as if they're at the front of the Tour de France, pootling around the local streets. Invariably they get very angry at anyone who delays them by anything more than a millisecond. Even if they're riding at speed on the pavement.
Company that paid (now indicted) FBI informant tied to Trump associates in Dubai, records reveal
Alexander Smirnov was paid $600,000 in 2020 – the same year he allegedly began lying to FBI about Bidens’ role in Ukraine business
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/14/company-paying-fbi-informant-trump-connections
...Smirnov is now accused of lying to the FBI about Hunter Biden and his father, President Joe Biden, alleging that they engaged in a bribery scheme with executives at Ukrainian energy company Burisma. Smirnov’s accounts to the FBI, beginning in 2020, that federal prosecutors now say are impossible fabrications, served as a major justification of the House impeachment investigation into the Bidens...
Cheltenham 1.30 - Iroko
Cheltenham 2.10 - Cuthbert Dibble
Cheltenham 2.50 - Stage Star
Cheltenham 3:30 - Sire Du Berlais
Cheltenham 4:10 - Crebilly
Cheltenham 4:50 - Jade De Grugy
Cheltenham 5.30 - Where it all Began
It's quite unusual for a government to fail on so many levels at once - Labour's public services improvements in the 2000s and the Tories' economic reforms of the 1980s were enduring achievements which succeeded on their own terms and improved the lives of the majority, a fact even people who opposed them were forced to concede. Today's Tories have no similar achievements to boast about and 2p off NI cannot disguise that dismal fact.
That said, they have been unusually short since the Gaza debacle - 30 minutes exactly last week, just under 34 minutes this. Normally they'd run on for 35-40 minutes.
So I suspect that this comes down to Hoyle being overly cautious as a result of the criticism he's faced.
(I do agree that not calling Ed Davey would have been the best solution in this instance - it would have meant that he could have got all the way down the order paper and then given a final Q to Abbot, likely taking about 40 minutes at most. And Davey seemed fairly surprised to have been called!)
PS Both obviously middle aged professional types. And male.
If you cycle at Richmond park, there is a subset of attendees, who rock up in very expensive SUVs, assemble their bikes and ride round. There is a strong tendency for them to be utter Knuts on the bikes *and* the SUVs.
Our big problem, locally, is twats on souped up eBikes making the segregated bike lanes unusable. Riding on pavements as well. Along the river footpaths, they zoom along the pedestrian areas at absurd velocities. Not long ago, one idiot rode round a corner at speed, as a boat was being taken out of a boat club. Fortunately the boat was a fairly massive training boat and wasn't damaged.
Would be enough to damage trust and create fear.
For the rocket...
I walk, ride and drive. At times I'm a bad pedestrian, cyclist and driver. I *try* to learn when I make mistakes so I don't make them in the future. IME some people don't want to accept they make mistakes, therefore never learn, and end up being @sshats whatever they're doing.
It's always someone else's fault.
The specifics aren't important. The point is that it's still possible for Starmer to lose trust and become an object of fear to the electorate. And then he loses. I don't expect it to happen, but if the Tories form the next government it will have been the key to the turnaround.
Presumably, the people advocating for withdrawal from the ECHR will also be caught by that clause.
The fact that Boris beat Sir Keir by record margins in this respect, according to IPSOS, makes the mistake the Tories made by shelving him all the worse. Even if he were doing as badly as Sunak is now, there would have been hope for them, but now there’s none.
I really don’t set any store by net ratings, I think they’re a massive red herring. Who cares if people who aren’t voting Tory RRRREALLY hate Boris, but only have mild disdain for Sunak/Cameron/May etc? It doesn’t matter. Get the votes in.
Boris only got 300k more votes in 2019 than May in 2017, but won a huge majority rather than a hung parliament. How does that fit with his ‘more votes but fewer seats’ because of his divisiveness?
Why do they do it?
Because they can!
1.Sunak is persuaded that an early death is preferable. We'll know by this time next week.
2. Sunak passes on May, but Brady informs him that enough letters are in. Sunak decides on Operation Samson and goes to the palace and we get an election soon after the locals
3. As (2) but the King tells him to do one. We get a brutal Tory bloodletting election where the unhappy loser find themself Prime Minister of a dead government facing annihilation.
4. Skip the trip to see the King, but enough letters go in after the locals disaster and Sunak is ousted
5. The dream scenario. Play out 3 or 4. Where Sunak survives. A leadership election is triggered but there is no alternative candidate. A Zombie PM of a dead government with a party clinging to office because 6 months of paycheques is better than the dole.
Sometimes
LouisRishi, dead is better.Given the increasing size and power of the eBikes, combined with the insanity with which they are ridden (worse than the perpetually L plated scooter riders), I wonder where they are in the stats, though.
They might have changed the name but yesterday really was Ladies' Day and Rachel was the lady.
"Patrick Duffy bought his two-bedroom flat with his partner in 2017 under a shared ownership scheme run by the One Housing housing association. Mr Duffy, 31, says they were once optimistic about the future but now feel their "dream has collapsed in on us".
He says their monthly service charge went from an initial £94 a month to £515 by April 2023 - and, two weeks ago, he was informed that it would rise again, to £646 a month."
This is an issue that should get more attention.
Newbuild flats sold as 'affordable housing' with rapidly escalating service charges, managed by ballooning bureaucracies.
I don't see any way out of it. The problem is rooted in poor quality building and complex evolving law relating to flats.
We’re nearly-all sick of them by now and the longer this goes on, the more sick of them we are. Nothing they say or do, and nothing beyond, is likely to improve on this.
My view is that the longer they now leave it, the worse will be the defeat.
I accept this runs counter to prevailing wisdom but has there ever been a Gov’t with which the country is more pissed off? I don’t think so. Certainly neither 1992-97 nor 1974-79.
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention figures
The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll shows the Conservatives on 20% (unchanged from our last poll on 6-7 March) and Labour 44% (-3).
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), Greens 7% (also no change), and Reform UK 14% (+1).
The obvious thing seems to be to legally involve the leaseholders in the choice of supplier, which would put a strong price inventive on the choices. But I can see the freeholder also needs to have some input where it relates to fundamental upkeep. The freeholder should be able to make sure that the maintenance that stops a block of flats collapsing happens; the leaseholders should be able to decide whether they want to pay for someone to come and change bulbs in the communal stairwells (and the communal gardens
So managing agents wield the power without any accountability. How can that possibly be right?
Jesus wept, this country is a mess.
In my old flat, we all owned the freehold (outright ownership). The managing agent company we used was bought out. The charges started to rise. Someone dug around and found out that the new owners had a model of contracting out all the actual services. So we didn't renew their contract - found someone else to do the job at about the old rate. Cue "You can't do that!".
We ask voters how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election on a scale from 0 to 100. Among 2019 Conservatives, the mean likelihood of voting Tory again was 42/100 (down from 48 in my February poll), while Labour voters’ likelihood of sticking with their party was 69/100 (up from 66 last month).
Taking those who put their chances of voting for their highest-rated party at 50/100 or above, the implied vote shares are Labour 45%, Conservative 23%, Reform UK 11%, Green 8% and Lib Dem 6%.
So these voting intentions do not include anyone who is undecided between multiple parties - eg might vote Lib Dem 48% of the time, but Labour 30% and Green 22%.
According to the underlying data table 36% of the sample would be in this position (including would not say). However there is some reduction in detail as to how that 36% split their voting intentions probabilities.
So percentage polling figures for each party is not comparable to other polling companies.
But looking at movements would still be relevant.
Why my mother was disappointed in me choosing to go the law route than medicine has always confused me.
Also why would she take it to lead them to oblivion unless she was going to stay as leader post election on the assumption she holds her seat.
ETA: But really, you're a star
But, with the Tories having abandoned so much ground recently, there are bound to be other topics that the LDs might now be able to steal for themselves. Green infrastructure, modern slavery, conversion therapy, maybe even some aspects of levelling up if they're feeling particularly cheeky.
There's no way that the Tories are going to be interested in reclaiming any of those in the foreseeable future, so there's plenty of scope for the Lib Dems to make them their own.
Seriously, I think this is far worse than 1997. Despite the tories messing up Black Wednesday and sleaze in the Major years, this period since 2019 has been like nothing any of us born since 1945 have ever experienced. That’s on so many levels, not all of them of the Government’s making but many of them are. And the ones that were from outside they’ve most managed to screw up.
I think they’re far more unpopular than 1997. But Starmer is no Blair, which is the only straw left that the tories have to clutch.
Also look at charges for people who buy caravans or lodges on places like Parkdean and Haven sites. The Panorama the other day only scratched at the surface of it really.
People pay a fortune for caravans and see their site fees increase dramatically with no recourse and if they miss the payment day they are kicked off the site and they have little legal rights.
I think for the vast majority it is a case of how bad the Tory defeat will be. I do not see anyone expecting a win, a hung parliament is the best outcome expected.
Mr. Eagles, isn't there a Shakespeare line about killing all the lawyers?
Mr. Nick, you are categorically wrong, sir. The current government has the undoubted positive of being temporary in nature.
However, you are absolutely right. We’re a democracy, she’s an MP, in this debate of all debates she should have been given her chance to speak. A shameful failure in the Mother of Parliaments
"When the security of the nation is at stake, would you trust a human rights lawyer to do the right thing by the British people?"
Can you be more specific on the good economic news that shifts the dial upwards for Tories, that’s actually being forecasted and expected?
Correct me where wrong,
the growth forecasts are to blip out of technical recession but only by the odd blip we blipped into it - up mere blips hardly supports “we have turned a corner and achieved growth” slogans. In fact the OBR 0.8 growth in 2024 is cherry picking the most optimistic of other forcasts for less, such as by BoE. Also, as we go on through summer and autumn, there is even danger of blipping down into recession again for election day - if it wasn’t for Taylor Swift coming. What if she slipped off stage in typical English summer, could we still expect economic growth. The way you are telling it, her visit is vital to Tory polling, they need to wrap Tay in cotton wool between performances, and Sunak stand with an umbrella over her, like the scene in WALL-E.
Interest rate cuts. Correct me where wrong, 5.25 to 5 in June. Rejoice! And 4.5 by years end. That doesn’t shift the political dial on switching to higher mortgage deals quickly enough though does it? in fact quite the opposite those higher deals will have on voters.
And even those forecasts could go pear shaped. The interest rate forecast is 3 cuts this year, first one in June, taking it from 5.25 to 4.50. But to what extent does this help a government having an election this year, not next spring or next summer, as the switching to higher painful payment plans pissing people properly off happening this year. And that’s even if change isn’t slower than forecast.When it comes to setting internet rates they won’t look solely at inflation moves. Other data to consider is core inflation, wage inflation, and at the moment the £ is too strong, beating 90% of currencies, and this is a problem for the government because our economy is weak at the same time meaning inflationary over demand. One of the problems with economic forecasting is forecasting lag. Like knowing how long will the impact of reboot after covid, like a big cost of living crisis how long till it works out the system with things like wages (inflationary) still going up.
Energy prices and inflation. Both forecast to be at their sweetest this spring and early summer, and showing upward trends in time for late autumn election.
What good economic news are you predicting outside of these measures?
You can't just outlaw the practice of increasing service charges as suggested upthread because all the costs are real, for the most part. Unless you have someone actively managing the costs and a degree of collective risk aversion (very difficult to achieve) on the part of the leaseholders they spiral out of control as is the case at the housing associations described above. The problem is fundamentally one of complex regulation and case law for which 'greedy freeholders and managing agents' get blamed.
Worse is to come. Some of the blocks of flats being built now have obligations to maintain drainage tanks at specific discharge rates, CCTV systems, waste collections, parking management measures etc for the lifetime of the development. They will rapidly result in over £1k per month service charges.
Liz Truss said the other day that over the last 30 years elected representatives had lost power to unelected organisations. I suppose she had in mind things like the 1998 Conservative Party rule change that took the final choice of Conservative leader (and therefore sometimes PM) away from MPs - must be one of the biggest examples in the UK.