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The SNP’s sixth sense – politicalbetting.com

24

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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    As an OAP I don’t think I know anyone who thinks quite like that. I certainly don’t. Yes, Mrs C and I sometimes look back and think ‘what’s happened to the world/our country’ but to my mind at least the 80’s were when it started going wrong.
    Yes, and the 70s were quite dire too (no matter what Foxy says - he was a teenager then, and sees the decade through rose-tinted glasses)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    As an OAP I don’t think I know anyone who thinks quite like that. I certainly don’t. Yes, Mrs C and I sometimes look back and think ‘what’s happened to the world/our country’ but to my mind at least the 80’s were when it started going wrong.
    Which is nice, but the what sways the voting as a bloc would seem to suggest there is something to that view.

    Though in my experience it is people in their 50s nostalgic for what they imagine their parents' times to have been like who hold that view a lot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    As an aside to all of good points you make, I've never understood complaints about trains in that regard - granted, I only use a train maybe 20 times a year, but it's been very rare in the last 20 years when a train was more than a minute or two late for me.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the discussion of the investigation we had yesterday, it seems that one if the reasons it's taken so long and cost so much is the delaying tactics if the security forces.

    Police chief who led Stakeknife inquiry condemns MI5 for stalling investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/police-chief-stakeknife-inquiry-condemns-mi5-stalling-investigation

    Yes the clown heading crown office all through that and many shambles was allegedly MI5, they are crapping it that the whole bourach unravels.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    Virtually everyone thinks, "what's in it for me?", and thinks through rose-tinted spectacles.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    First bit is correct for sure, very few layabouts then as there was little free money , no free houses etc etc
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Interesting piece about Tory woke warriors and being surprised that parliamentary privilege doesn't allow them to say what they like about whom they evidently regard as little people:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/09/michelle-donelan-case-highlights-perils-for-politicians-who-pick-fights-online

    I won't attribute this trend to social media precisely, though it comes across as similar to it, but over here and 10x more in the USA some politicians are increasingly treating all their communications as if they are some random person mouthing off in the pub or, indeed, on twitter. Where the goal is to impress someone or troll an opponent. No care about how it presents to others, or to persuade people, or even have any worth, but to just blunder into random discussions with some braindead take which will get applause from some mythical mob of supporters.

    Nothing wrong with a bit of fiery rhetoric or biting comment at times, but good politicians pick the moment and can do dignity or seriousness when they want to, they mould to the situation, whereas too often now they are just all crazy all the time, or, and I think for senior ministers like Donelan this is likely, switch between anonymous and hiding from scrutiny, robotically parroting bland lines, and lame attempts at cultural interventions.
    +1
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

    The people who can accurately predict the future of interest rates (if there are any) are making lots of money on the financial markets with that information. They're not writing articles in the Press for a relative pittance.
    When the Telegraph was free I tracked its interest rate or GBP predictions over one or two years. Their accuracy was unacceptably bad. Predictions, particularly in the financial sector, are for making not checking, and the fact that they are wrong is not necessarily a problem. The point is to crowd think: if you make a prediction and it's in the herd, then you won't get fired, even if it was galumphingly wrong
    Look at where money can be made or lost -- i.e. the yield curve -- if you want to know what the market thinks the direction of interest rates might be.
    Thank you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    Your rich self interested pensioner parent sdo not constitute anything relevant to the topic, you always get a few cuckoos in the nest. In general most pensioners are far from rich and have saved hard for 50 year sfor teh few bob they do have.
    Greedy feckers abound who would push their parents under the bus if it got them a bob or two are the big issue in UK today, want it all for nothing lazy green cheesed arseholes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    Virtually everyone thinks, "what's in it for me?", and thinks through rose-tinted spectacles.
    My generation of course looks back on the 1990s as the glory days, because that’s when we were young and having our first snogs etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".
    Nobody has any interest in becoming leader now until likely opposition, they will leave Sunak and Hunt to take the blame for defeat.

    In opposition the Tories fortunes will in any case be far more dependent on how a Labour government handles the economy than who their leader is. After all in 1975 Thatcher was considered an unelectable hard-line right-winger while even had Ken Clarke been elected Tory leader in 1997 Blair would still have beaten him in 2001
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Humza staring down a big cut in short money as well after the election, tricky place to be in!

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    malcolmg said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    Your rich self interested pensioner parent sdo not constitute anything relevant to the topic, you always get a few cuckoos in the nest. In general most pensioners are far from rich and have saved hard for 50 year sfor teh few bob they do have.
    Greedy feckers abound who would push their parents under the bus if it got them a bob or two are the big issue in UK today, want it all for nothing lazy green cheesed arseholes.
    I’m taking “lazy green cheesed arseholes” for future use.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that Yousaf, a Muslim, gets the most financial support from his party by far from a Christian evangelical

    any port in a storm for this lot, surprised his pals don't send him oodles.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    When the SNP was a party promoting independence, it received donations from independence supporters. When it was a party promoting Scottish business, it received donations from Scottish businesses. If it starts promoting independence and business again, it will start receiving donations again. Whilst it continues to try to be Green / Labour lite, it will continue to alienate the people who could afford to donate to it.

    exactly Fairlie
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the discussion of the investigation we had yesterday, it seems that one if the reasons it's taken so long and cost so much is the delaying tactics if the security forces.

    Police chief who led Stakeknife inquiry condemns MI5 for stalling investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/police-chief-stakeknife-inquiry-condemns-mi5-stalling-investigation

    Yes the clown heading crown office all through that and many shambles was allegedly MI5, they are crapping it that the whole bourach unravels.
    Think I mixed up the investigations there but obviously result the same
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    Virtually everyone thinks, "what's in it for me?", and thinks through rose-tinted spectacles.
    My generation of course looks back on the 1990s as the glory days, because that’s when we were young and having our first snogs etc.
    Well, I don’t look at the 50’s like that; the mid 60’s when we were first married, had a young family and I was running a small pharmacy were good, though. The 80’s were tough, and people grousing about interest rates now don’t know the half of it.
    The 90’s were a lot better.
    We became pensioners in the early years of this century, and, apart from my health recently, it’s been OK.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0

    I did think that May 2 was suicidal bollocks for the tories but Shappsie is clearly in electioneering mode.



    Zelensky: Elizaveta Trusskaya also wore a fur hat!
    Disappointed that Shapps hasn’t got a visiting a war zone crew cut syrup sorted out, obviously totally unsuited to the tole.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812
    malcolmg said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    Your rich self interested pensioner parent sdo not constitute anything relevant to the topic, you always get a few cuckoos in the nest. In general most pensioners are far from rich and have saved hard for 50 year sfor teh few bob they do have.
    Greedy feckers abound who would push their parents under the bus if it got them a bob or two are the big issue in UK today, want it all for nothing lazy green cheesed arseholes.
    If only your generation had bothered to learn how to parent properly imagine how much better the world could be.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    edited March 9

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    So does my other half's mum; she's 93! (I was also careful not to suggest that the people making this mistake *are* the people in their 70s!)

    When my daughter was a baby, we did this little playdate thing in a local retirement home which had a lot of *very* old ladies in it. One was in her early hundreds and had memories of Armistice Day, WW1.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    Virtually everyone thinks, "what's in it for me?", and thinks through rose-tinted spectacles.
    My generation of course looks back on the 1990s as the glory days, because that’s when we were young and having our first snogs etc.
    Well, I don’t look at the 50’s like that; the mid 60’s when we were first married, had a young family and I was running a small pharmacy were good, though. The 80’s were tough, and people grousing about interest rates now don’t know the half of it.
    The 90’s were a lot better.
    We became pensioners in the early years of this century, and, apart from my health recently, it’s been OK.
    We are very much on the same page and timeline
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,129
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time

    As an aside to all of good points you make, I've never understood complaints about trains in that regard - granted, I only use a train maybe 20 times a year, but it's been very rare in the last 20 years when a train was more than a minute or two late for me.
    I think that's one of those things where individual perceptions can vary wildly. If you're a commuter using the train every day then your chances of encountering delays are pretty high, just because you're using them more often. Plus you've probably got a standard morning routine, so if the train is frequently 5 minutes late on a 30 minute commute, you're going to notice, whereas an occasional leisure traveller whose train is a bit later into London than timetabled will shrug it off. And of course if your usual line is one of the terribly performing ones your experience will be much worse than average.

    The figures are genuinely not great at the moment, though: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/performance/passenger-rail-performance/ says that for Oct-Dec 2023 just 62.2% of station stops were genuinely on time (within a minute),only 81.4% could even manage the rather low bar of "less than 5 to 10 minutes late", and almost 5% were cancelled entirely. Other than a brief improvement during the pandemic when almost nobody was using the trains, the figures have been consistently at about this level since at least 2016.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".
    Nobody has any interest in becoming leader now until likely opposition, they will leave Sunak and Hunt to take the blame for defeat.

    In opposition the Tories fortunes will in any case be far more dependent on how a Labour government handles the economy than who their leader is. After all in 1975 Thatcher was considered an unelectable hard-line right-winger while even had Ken Clarke been elected Tory leader in 1997 Blair would still have beaten him in 2001
    I agree that this is the reality. I was more wondering if anyone in the parliamentary party does not subscribe to that reality?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    Virtually everyone thinks, "what's in it for me?", and thinks through rose-tinted spectacles.
    My generation of course looks back on the 1990s as the glory days, because that’s when we were young and having our first snogs etc.
    Well, I don’t look at the 50’s like that; the mid 60’s when we were first married, had a young family and I was running a small pharmacy were good, though. The 80’s were tough, and people grousing about interest rates now don’t know the half of it.
    The 90’s were a lot better.
    We became pensioners in the early years of this century, and, apart from my health recently, it’s been OK.
    I agree that the 80s were the hardest. We were bringing up two young children, amidst 15% mortgage rates and mass unemployment. The current government are the most incompetent, though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    Scott_xP said:

    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government

    The quotes in the article are from Tory MPs

    They know May is their best chance of holding on to their seats
    That's true for some Conservative MPs, but not enough.

    Let's say the range of outcomes is 75 - 200 Conservatives in the next Parliament.

    75 are safe anyway. About 150 are doomed anyway; they might as well hang on another six months. It's only the ones in the middle band that benefit from an early election.
    So by your count, there are 125 MPs for whom delaying the election represents an existential threat

    More than enough to force Richi's hand
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    So does my other half's mum; she's 93! (I was also careful not to suggest that the people making this mistake *are* the people in their 70s!)

    When my daughter was a baby, we did this little playdate thing in a local retirement home which had a lot of *very* old ladies in it. One was in her early hundreds and had memories of Armistice Day, WW1.
    My late mother used to talk of watching a Zeppelin burn and crash. She lived near Hertford and the airship was shot down over Cuffley, near what is now the M25.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".
    Nobody has any interest in becoming leader now until likely opposition, they will leave Sunak and Hunt to take the blame for defeat.

    In opposition the Tories fortunes will in any case be far more dependent on how a Labour government handles the economy than who their leader is. After all in 1975 Thatcher was considered an unelectable hard-line right-winger while even had Ken Clarke been elected Tory leader in 1997 Blair would still have beaten him in 2001
    I agree that this is the reality. I was more wondering if anyone in the parliamentary party does not subscribe to that reality?
    May well be some thinking it, but I doubt anyone will say it out loud. "Vote for me because I've called out the failings of the government I've backed for the last five years" is a tricky sell on the doorstep.

    (This is also where the purges of 2019 don't help. Starmer has been able to assemble a fairly decent government-in-waiting from Corbyn refuseniks still in parliament. I don't see how the Conservatives could do the same.)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government

    The quotes in the article are from Tory MPs

    They know May is their best chance of holding on to their seats
    That's true for some Conservative MPs, but not enough.

    Let's say the range of outcomes is 75 - 200 Conservatives in the next Parliament.

    75 are safe anyway. About 150 are doomed anyway; they might as well hang on another six months. It's only the ones in the middle band that benefit from an early election.
    So by your count, there are 125 MPs for whom delaying the election represents an existential threat

    More than enough to force Richi's hand
    No as it needs 185 Tory MPs for him to lose a VONC
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,045

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    So does my other half's mum; she's 93! (I was also careful not to suggest that the people making this mistake *are* the people in their 70s!)

    When my daughter was a baby, we did this little playdate thing in a local retirement home which had a lot of *very* old ladies in it. One was in her early hundreds and had memories of Armistice Day, WW1.
    My late mother used to talk of watching a Zeppelin burn and crash. She lived near Hertford and the airship was shot down over Cuffley, near what is now the M25.
    My grandmother was bombed out of her home… by a Zeppelin in WWI.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    So does my other half's mum; she's 93! (I was also careful not to suggest that the people making this mistake *are* the people in their 70s!)

    When my daughter was a baby, we did this little playdate thing in a local retirement home which had a lot of *very* old ladies in it. One was in her early hundreds and had memories of Armistice Day, WW1.
    My late mother used to talk of watching a Zeppelin burn and crash. She lived near Hertford and the airship was shot down over Cuffley, near what is now the M25.
    My late mother remembered a Zeppelin coming over to visit, but that was in the 1930s!

    https://www.broadlandmemories.co.uk/blog/2011/02/the-curious-case-of-the-graf-zeppelin/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812
    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    edited March 9
    I watched Saltburn last night.

    For the first twenty or thirty minutes, all I could think was, 'Another bloody film about posh Oxford students, made by another bloody posh ex-Oxford student, set exactly when she was a bloody posh Oxford student.' And I was really ready to hate it.
    Then it changed into something else when the two main characters decamped to the posher one's home, which of course was a massive stately home (they used Drayton House in Northamptonshire for the filming). And I was really quite ready to like it.

    However, it's a bit of a Frankentein's monster of a film. At times it wants to be Brideshead Revisited; at times it wants to be The Talented Mr Ripley; at times it wants to be Gormenghast; sometimes the director really fancies herself as Wes Anderson, with painterly scenes captured in vivid colours; sometime she fancies herself as a new Hitchcock with suspenseful reveals and opaque dialogue. But none of it is ever committed to wholeheartedly - it's all a little underpowered, and underinspired. This is obvious in the sketchy way the protagonist exercises his power over the others - never really fully flesh out - but the epitome of this is the now quite famous dance sequence at the end to Murder on the Dancefloor: the actor jiggles about (in more ways than one) adequately enough, but neither he, nor the camerawork, ever really commits fully to it. Hugh Grant in Love Actually and Tom Cruise in Risky Business are the obvious comparators, and both really give 100% - but this, not so much.

    There are some standout scenes: Oliver and the draining bath; Oliver and Venetia in the garden at night; and Oliver and Venetia in the last bathroom scene - but other than that it's a bit colourless.

    Carey Mulligan is lovely in a little cameo as the unwelcome cousin.
    Richard E Grant is great as the paterfamilias (although I did get flashbacks to Rowley Birkin QC)
    Rosamund Pike... when will directors realise that, attractive as she is, she. cannot. act. at. all. Not a flicker of acting ever crosses her face. Now, if Jennifer Saunders had played the part...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Liz Truss wants it
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
    I had assumed the tax is 20% on income - with a £12,500 tax free allowance making 15% marginal rate maximum - not taking account of other tax free incentives like ISAs. So most people will be paying less than 15%.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Liz Truss wants it
    I think you have just sabotaged your own argument
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    If the ball were to come lose from the back of the scrum, at least one Tory MP would pick it up.

    To pretend otherwise is ludicrous
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,045

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    Hunt?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    There's only one person who would even want it at this point, not because they'd think they could turn things around, but just being willing to take it on - Gove.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    While I don’t disagree for a moment about the ‘talent cupboard’ I think Mordaunt and Truss, to name two, would have a go. Possibly also Badenoch and Patel.
    As I wrote that I thought “All women”!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    The real problem with the "old people" narrative is it lumps together everyone between 60 and 90 whereas no-one would expect 20 and 50-year-olds to have the same cultural interests, and that's without taking socio-economic, religious or ethnic differences into account.
    I'm hoping that in a few years time 60 will be middle aged rather than old.....
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Thanks for the responses on the last thread about insolvencies and phoenix companies. It did make me think that more could be done to avoid people taking money out of companies whilst owing money to HMRC.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    Oliver Dowden is the present deputy PM
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    Well, I’m in my 80’s and I REMEMBER the war.
    The later years, anyway.
    The real problem with the "old people" narrative is it lumps together everyone between 60 and 90 whereas no-one would expect 20 and 50-year-olds to have the same cultural interests, and that's without taking socio-economic, religious or ethnic differences into account.
    I'm hoping that in a few years time 60 will be middle aged rather than old.....
    I wish I was 60 again - I would feel middle aged
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    If the ball were to come lose from the back of the scrum, at least one Tory MP would pick it up.

    To pretend otherwise is ludicrous
    And the fear of that happening is what keeps Rishi in place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    Oliver Dowden is the present deputy PM
    Which doesn't mean anything in terms of who would take over.

    If no one else was interested in the gig, then conceivably they might signal to the Palace he would do as an emergency choice, but heck, in an run over by a bus scenario they might well go for Cameron as temporary PM, on the basis he's done it before and there would be time to figure out who would do it long term.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    Oliver Dowden is the present deputy PM
    Which doesn't mean anything in terms of who would take over.

    If no one else was interested in the gig, then conceivably they might signal to the Palace he would do as an emergency choice, but heck, in an run over by a bus scenario they might well go for Cameron as temporary PM, on the basis he's done it before and there would be time to figure out who would do it long term.
    In the immediate aftermath Dowden would take over but for how long and what happens next nobody can possibly tell
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Penddu2 said:

    FWIW...
    My 6 Nations predictions for this weekend:

    Italy-Scotland: Italy will be fired up by their result against France and will have been disappointed with their missed kick at the end of the game, and will be trying to go one better today. Scotland will be equally happy with their result against England, although they were lucky to scrape wins against France & Wales. This game could go either way but I am going to go with Italy 13 Scotland 18.

    England-Ireland. England will try to steamroller England, but Ireland are simply too good at the moment and l expect them to ride out the early English pressure and then dominate the game. England 12 Ireland 27.

    Wales-France. Wales have been steadily improving throughout the tournament, despite not actually winning, and I expect the improvements to continue today. But France will be hurting after last weeks match, and will make things awkward for Wales. This game will be close but think that Wales will finally win a game Wales 21 France 15

    Pedantry insists that I point out that Scotland lost to France.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,417
    darkage said:

    Thanks for the responses on the last thread about insolvencies and phoenix companies. It did make me think that more could be done to avoid people taking money out of companies whilst owing money to HMRC.

    Have a look at Private Eye. They’ve been on about it for ages.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867

    The thing about the Michelle Donelan £15k payment is that this will have cost the taxpayer much more than that. There will be a cost from a government legal team having to deal with this. We know Donelan had civil servants working on the non-issue. The UKRI had to conduct an entirely unnecessary investigation. Two publicly-funded academics had to waste their time dealing with the false accusation. That will all add up to way more than £15k.

    Has the think tank said anything about the Donelan libel affair?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited March 9

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very
    idea of abolishing NI into one
    tax rate just confirms it will
    not happen in the forceable
    future
    Fury from Tories like me too, NI should be ringfenced and funding the state pension, JSA and some healthcare. Without NI we lose the contributions based welfare element, including JSA which you have to have paid in enough NI as an employee for
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867

    Scott_xP said:

    There has to be enough letters into the 1922 committee to trigger a vonc and even then Sunak would win the vote

    No, he wouldn't
    Consistent as ever - of course he would - nobody else wants the job before the next election
    Put it this way.

    If Rishi were run over by a low-floor Boris Bus this afternoon, who would take over?

    Like the fiscal cupboard, the talent cupboard is pretty much empty, which is why Rishi got the gig in the first place.
    While I don’t disagree for a moment about the ‘talent cupboard’ I think Mordaunt and Truss, to name two, would have a go. Possibly also Badenoch and Patel.
    As I wrote that I thought “All women”!
    They should do it just to troll Labour with an all-women shortlist.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited March 9
    darkage said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
    I had assumed the tax is 20% on income - with a £12,500 tax free allowance making 15% marginal rate maximum - not taking account of other tax free incentives like ISAs. So most people will be paying less than 15%.
    Thanks. But your marginal rate varies with income. You're obviously talking about people with the state pension, an employment pension, and some interest, in which case the allowance is pretty much used up so to speak on the first 12.5 K of income = a full SP. The true marginal rate for additional income is going to be 20% for quite a while (barring the first £500 on interest, of course).

    The *average* rate of tax overall is going to be less, sure, but on a quick mental calculation 15% is only true of people with personal incomes of the order of 48K and you're in higher rate territory almost at once anyway unless a significvant amount of income is interest in ISAs.

    Edit: that ignores NI - but as HMG say, why pay it if you get the pension for which it has paid, so to speak? (I know, I know ...).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited March 9

    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.


    It's a bit rich given the US and allies are currently air dropping aid onto Gazan beaches, even while supplying Netanyahu with the armanents that mean that aid is necessary.

    I'm aware of the strong views on each side on PB but surely we can agree the whole thing is becoming a farce. A Mulberry harbour?!!

    Meanwhile Iran has basically achieved all it's objectives. Israel is the bad guy once again and peace and stability in the Middle East pushed back another 20 years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    As an aside to all of good points you make, I've never understood complaints about trains in that regard - granted, I only use a train maybe 20 times a year, but it's been very rare in the last 20 years when a train was more than a minute or two late for me.
    Late trains are not uncommon. They travel long distances and the potential for delays due to violent passengers, signal failures, repairs, breakdown (rare), trespassers or suicides on the line. When I travel I never take the last train, always have two alternate routes written down. The taxi at the other end is booked for fifteen minutes after the train is due to arrive to soak up minor delays. Delays of one to two hours are less common but they do happen and from memory there have been two this year. Within the past two years there has been one case where I have had to abandon my journey and get a hotel room. Bus replacement services are rare if you avoid travelling on the weekend.

    (Viewcode travels hundreds of miles a week by train and loathes it)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited March 9
    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very
    idea of abolishing NI into one
    tax rate just confirms it will
    not happen in the forceable
    future
    Fury from Tories like me too, NI should be ringfenced and funding the state pension, JSA and some healthcare. Without NI we lose the contributions based welfare element, including JSA which you have to have paid in enough NI as an employee for
    You simply do not understand the concept

    At present workers are double taxed whilst others including pensioners are not which is simply unfair and a tax on jobs

    The way to equalise the tax is to, over a number of years, reduce NI while increasing standard rate but also increase personal allowance to shield poorer pensioners
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812
    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
    I had assumed the tax is 20% on income - with a £12,500 tax free allowance making 15% marginal rate maximum - not taking account of other tax free incentives like ISAs. So most people will be paying less than 15%.
    Thanks. But your marginal rate varies with income. You're obviously talking about people with the state pension, an employment pension, and some interest, in which case the allowance is pretty much used up so to speak on the first 12.5 K of income = a full SP. The true marginal rate for additional income is going to be 20% for quite a while (barring the first £500 on interest, of course).

    The *average* rate of tax overall is going to be less, sure, but on a quick mental calculation 15% is only true of people with personal incomes of the order of 48K and you're in higher rate territory almost at once anyway unless a significvant amount of income is interest in ISAs.

    Edit: that ignores NI - but as HMG say, why pay it if you get the pension for which it has paid, so to speak? (I know, I know ...).
    Replace marginal with effective in the original post and you should be in agreement.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited March 9
    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
    I had assumed the tax is 20% on income - with a £12,500 tax free allowance making 15% marginal rate maximum - not taking account of other tax free incentives like ISAs. So most people will be paying less than 15%.
    Thanks. But your marginal rate varies with income. You're obviously talking about people with the state pension, an employment pension, and some interest, in which case the allowance is pretty much used up so to speak on the first 12.5 K of income = a full SP. The true marginal rate for additional income is going to be 20% for quite a while (barring the first £500 on interest, of course).

    The *average* rate of tax overall is going to be less, sure, but on a quick mental calculation 15% is only true of people with personal incomes of the order of 48K and you're in higher rate territory almost at once anyway unless a significvant amount of income is interest in ISAs.

    Edit: that ignores NI - but as HMG say, why pay it if you get the pension for which it has paid, so to speak? (I know, I know ...).
    Indeed - my point though, is that the real rate on all that income is going to be less than 15%.
    Compare with someone earning 50k and repaying a student loan - it is 15% income tax plus NI (8% after allowance is factored in) plus student loan 9%. More than double the well off pensioner... and from that you have to pay for housing, childcare etc.

    I see this as being where the problem is -
    - Pensioners earning more than about 20k should pay more tax.
    - The 9% never ending student loan repayments should be abolished.


    @keirstarmer
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very
    idea of abolishing NI into one
    tax rate just confirms it will
    not happen in the forceable
    future
    Fury from Tories like me too, NI should be ringfenced and funding the state pension, JSA and some healthcare. Without NI we lose the contributions based welfare element, including JSA which you have to have paid in enough NI as an employee for
    You simply do not understand the concept

    At present workers are double taxed whilst others including pensioners are not which is simply unfit fair and a tax on jobs

    The way to equalise the tax is to, over a number of years, reduce NI while increasing standard rate but also increase personal allowance to shield poorer pensioners
    It is a tax on jobs but is not unfair *provided* NI is used to qualify for the state pension. You'd need to break that link, which many people are in favour of but you'd then run smack into the problem of people getting off the boat to claim it. Obviously you can fix that but easiest is to reinvent something a bit like NI charged at 0 per cent.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    How do you make it 15%? I can't make that work.

    Granted, there are weird things like zero tax on the first 0.5K of interest, but still?
    I had assumed the tax is 20% on income - with a £12,500 tax free allowance making 15% marginal rate maximum - not taking account of other tax free incentives like ISAs. So most people will be paying less than 15%.
    Thanks. But your marginal rate varies with income. You're obviously talking about people with the state pension, an employment pension, and some interest, in which case the allowance is pretty much used up so to speak on the first 12.5 K of income = a full SP. The true marginal rate for additional income is going to be 20% for quite a while (barring the first £500 on interest, of course).

    The *average* rate of tax overall is going to be less, sure, but on a quick mental calculation 15% is only true of people with personal incomes of the order of 48K and you're in higher rate territory almost at once anyway unless a significvant amount of income is interest in ISAs.

    Edit: that ignores NI - but as HMG say, why pay it if you get the pension for which it has paid, so to speak? (I know, I know ...).
    Replace marginal with effective in the original post and you should be in agreement.
    Yes that is right, I should have said effective
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    edited March 9
    Cheer up lads, despite all this talk of British immiseration at least we’re doing better than the Uzbeks.



    https://x.com/lbc/status/1766146211189305555?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    The thing about the Michelle Donelan £15k payment is that this will have cost the taxpayer much more than that. There will be a cost from a government legal team having to deal with this. We know Donelan had civil servants working on the non-issue. The UKRI had to conduct an entirely unnecessary investigation. Two publicly-funded academics had to waste their time dealing with the false accusation. That will all add up to way more than £15k.

    Has the think tank said anything about the Donelan libel affair?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/hamas-university-and-college-union-conservative-policy-exchange-labour-b2507891.html

    'Law firm Bindmans, which represented Prof Sang in her libel complaint, also criticised the think tank Policy Exchange for putting out what it described as a “seriously misleading press release” about the academics’ comments.

    Tamsin Allen, a partner at Bindmans, said: “It is extraordinary that a minister should be guided by a lobby group into making serious false allegations about private citizens without doing the first piece of due diligence.”

    Policy Exchange has been contacted for comment.'

    That was 3 days ago but I couldn't see anything on the Policy Exchange website.

    This also up re the wider matter:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/08/the-guardian-view-on-michelle-donelan-exposed-as-an-online-bully-she-should-now-resign
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    The international freestyle heelwork competition final gets underway with a great entry from Doreen and Luke from Germany.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very
    idea of abolishing NI into one
    tax rate just confirms it will
    not happen in the forceable
    future
    Fury from Tories like me too, NI should be ringfenced and funding the state pension, JSA and some healthcare. Without NI we lose the contributions based welfare element, including JSA which you have to have paid in enough NI as an employee for
    You simply do not understand the concept

    At present workers are double taxed whilst others including pensioners are not which is simply unfit fair and a tax on jobs

    The way to equalise the tax is to, over a number of years, reduce NI while increasing standard rate but also increase personal allowance to shield poorer pensioners
    It is a tax on jobs but is not unfair *provided* NI is used to qualify for the state pension. You'd need to break that link, which many people are in favour of but you'd then run smack into the problem of people getting off the boat to claim it. Obviously you can fix that but easiest is to reinvent something a bit like NI charged at 0 per cent.
    No need, there is already a zero rate of NI.

    https://www.gov.uk/national-insurance-rates-letters
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.

    Go on, divvie, you can tell us.

    Your the only living person still donating to the SNP, aren't you...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Cheer up lads, despite all this talk of British immiseration at least we’re doing better than the Uzbeks.



    https://x.com/lbc/status/1766146211189305555?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a rather odd list. Venezuela is doing rather well at 7th!

    I suspect a lot comes down to community solidarity and willingness to talk about mental well being.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Scott_xP said:

    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.

    Go on, divvie, you can tell us.

    Your the only living person still donating to the SNP, aren't you...
    There are living people still donating to the SNP, but just under the threshold where you stay anonymous. This does not disprove the idea that the SNP are in some financial discomfort at the moment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    What It Takes To Run 6 Government Departments | Sir Sajid Javid
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYRcV54YIag

    Rory & Alastair chat with The Saj. 80 minutes so ideal listening while the rugger is on.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    In my view, someone has to become the Tory Kinnock - a more-or-less unknown taking the reins with the intent of riding out (at least one) defeat and remaining leader.

    If it ends up being someone tainted by association with this era, the Tories are consigning themselves to a long time out of office.

    One thing I haven't seen discussed is the possibility that a current MP stands against Sunak on the basis that "there's nothing we can do to avoid a terrible election; we need to be honest with the voters, and start rebuilding our party NOW, not waiting until after the inevitable".
    But Kinnock did far more than just that - he mapped a plausible path out of the weeds in which his party had become entangled, forced them to listen to some hard truths, and began to stitch together a new coalition of voting groups.

    The Tories are nowhere near ready for any of that. A fresh face with no ideological baggage is just going to be trampled over by one or more of the rival factions.

    Perhaps the best they can hope for is that they end up being led in opposition by someone who is merely unelectable rather than being actively dangerous - a Foot rather than a Benn.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
    It does startle me too. But I shouldn't be surprised. On reflection, Mr Hunt is apt to seem to the person on the Aberchirder bus like he's doing a Robert Maxwell while changing the law to suit himself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Foxy said:

    Cheer up lads, despite all this talk of British immiseration at least we’re doing better than the Uzbeks.



    https://x.com/lbc/status/1766146211189305555?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a rather odd list. Venezuela is doing rather well at 7th!

    I suspect a lot comes down to community solidarity and willingness to talk about mental well being.

    My son was referencing this study the other day. It’s completely at odds with other happiness/misery indices such as the UN happiness index, where the UK is fairly close to the top though well behind the Nordics, and the bottom rung is filled with the places you’d expect: Afghanistan, Yemen, CAR, DRC etc (though those all have their own methodological flaws too).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.

    Go on, divvie, you can tell us.

    Your the only living person still donating to the SNP, aren't you...
    There are living people still donating to the SNP, but just under the threshold where you stay anonymous. This does not disprove the idea that the SNP are in some financial discomfort at the moment.
    That's correct. In fact it's relied historically far more on small donations than the likes of the Tories. TSE is careful in his wording, "major donation". But a lot of commentators on PB and elsewhere miss that. It's not always clear whether someone has fallen into that trap.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    AlsoLei said:

    Perhaps the best they can hope for is that they end up being led in opposition by someone who is merely unelectable rather than being actively dangerous - a Foot rather than a Benn.

    @GavinBarwell

    I suppose you need to say this kind of thing if you want to be the next leader of the Conservative Party, but given only 13% of the electorate agree (https://ipsos.com/en-uk/7-10-britons-think-brexit-has-had-negative-impact-uk-economy#:~:text=13% of Britons consider Brexit,it has been both equally) not if you ever want to be Prime Minister. And it makes you a laughing stock internationally


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    The Dutch competitor, veteran of the competition but working a new dog Obelix, goes into the lead.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    As an aside to all of good points you make, I've never understood complaints about trains in that regard - granted, I only use a train maybe 20 times a year, but it's been very rare in the last 20 years when a train was more than a minute or two late for me.
    The issue with trains is patchiness. Some operators/routes are very good, others abysmal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Perhaps the best they can hope for is that they end up being led in opposition by someone who is merely unelectable rather than being actively dangerous - a Foot rather than a Benn.

    @GavinBarwell

    I suppose you need to say this kind of thing if you want to be the next leader of the Conservative Party, but given only 13% of the electorate agree (https://ipsos.com/en-uk/7-10-britons-think-brexit-has-had-negative-impact-uk-economy#:~:text=13% of Britons consider Brexit,it has been both equally) not if you ever want to be Prime Minister. And it makes you a laughing stock internationally


    On some level you have to admire the breathtakingly brazen lie.

    Badenoch = the tory Corbyn
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Scott_xP said:

    Since we’re on the subject, this is definitely not an Islamophobic smear, in fact it’s a smear against that noble seeker of truth that is the Telegraph to even suggest it.

    Go on, divvie, you can tell us.

    Your* the only living person still donating to the SNP, aren't you...
    *you’re

    When did you transfer your direct debit from your ex squeeze the Tories to Lab? Was there a bit of a scene with sobbing Cons imploring you not to go?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Interesting piece about Tory woke warriors and being surprised that parliamentary privilege doesn't allow them to say what they like about whom they evidently regard as little people:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/09/michelle-donelan-case-highlights-perils-for-politicians-who-pick-fights-online

    I won't attribute this trend to social media precisely, though it comes across as similar to it, but over here and 10x more in the USA some politicians are increasingly treating all their communications as if they are some random person mouthing off in the pub or, indeed, on twitter. Where the goal is to impress someone or troll an opponent. No care about how it presents to others, or to persuade people, or even have any worth, but to just blunder into random discussions with some braindead take which will get applause from some mythical mob of supporters.

    Nothing wrong with a bit of fiery rhetoric or biting comment at times, but good politicians pick the moment and can do dignity or seriousness when they want to, they mould to the situation, whereas too often now they are just all crazy all the time, or, and I think for senior ministers like Donelan this is likely, switch between anonymous and hiding from scrutiny, robotically parroting bland lines, and lame attempts at cultural interventions.
    Good point - and it's a lesson that many on the left have already started to learn, especially since so many of their famous-on-twitter name-callers have been exposed as grifters in the past couple of years. The Tories are behind the curve on this, and could well find themselves getting into serious trouble during an election campaign.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sweden goes into first.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
    It does startle me too. But I shouldn't be surprised. On reflection, Mr Hunt is apt to seem to the person on the Aberchirder bus like he's doing a Robert Maxwell while changing the law to suit himself.
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
    It does startle me too. But I shouldn't be surprised. On reflection, Mr Hunt is apt to seem to the person on the Aberchirder bus like he's doing a Robert Maxwell while changing the law to suit himself.
    There’s still an Aberchirder bus?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Mr. Divvie, given there's Ukraine, Russia, the civil war between two differentarmies in Sudan, Ethiopia teetering on the brink, Israel/Gaza, and so on, I'm going to be very controversial and suggest the notion the UK is the second most miserable place on Earth might just be silly.

    I fear that insisting that we’re actually not as miserable as countries afflicted by civil war, famine and area bombing by a vengeful neighbour might not be a big winner on the reassurance front.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,799
    edited March 9

    Penddu2 said:

    FWIW...
    My 6 Nations predictions for this weekend:

    Italy-Scotland: Italy will be fired up by their result against France and will have been disappointed with their missed kick at the end of the game, and will be trying to go one better today. Scotland will be equally happy with their result against England, although they were lucky to scrape wins against France & Wales. This game could go either way but I am going to go with Italy 13 Scotland 18.

    England-Ireland. England will try to steamroller England, but Ireland are simply too good at the moment and l expect them to ride out the early English pressure and then dominate the game. England 12 Ireland 27.

    Wales-France. Wales have been steadily improving throughout the tournament, despite not actually winning, and I expect the improvements to continue today. But France will be hurting after last weeks match, and will make things awkward for Wales. This game will be close but think that Wales will finally win a game Wales 21 France 15

    Pedantry insists that I point out that Scotland lost to France.
    Well, only officially. I mean everyone knows that they won really.

    Problem is Ireland will get another bonus point against England this weekend and the 6 nations will be over instead of having a grand decider in a fortnight.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    An amusing routine from Canada, Jennifer with Fabio the first ever Afghan Hound to compete in freestyle at Crufts. Goes into first place with 25.60
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
    It does startle me too. But I shouldn't be surprised. On reflection, Mr Hunt is apt to seem to the person on the Aberchirder bus like he's doing a Robert Maxwell while changing the law to suit himself.
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    mwadams said:

    TimS said:

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
    There's also a remarkable proportion of the population who seem to think that people in their 70s "won the war". Probably because people in their 70s *when they were kids* were indeed the ones that did.

    This all plays into a weird mythology we have about "old people" that is not really helpful to anyone.
    The pensioners that did win the war, now nearly all dead, were generally poorly treated in retirement - little private pension, meagre state pension. So the current situation is a result of trying to correct this injustice, the beneficiaries being those who were born in the 30's - 50's, who were too young to fight in the war.

    I've said a few times that some pensioners are doing incredibly well when you have
    state pension + defined benefit pension + interest from savings + no mortgage
    The marginal tax rate on all that income up to 50k is 15%.

    However this is not by any means the majority of pensioners- many of whom rely solely on the state pension.
    Link state pension to earnings only.
    Boost pension credit by 10% and retain the triple lock on it.
    Merge NI and IT.
    Very sensible, but with the fury from labour at the very idea of abolishing NI into one tax rate just confirms it will not happen in the forceable future
    I think that's perhaps a misperception - Labour are acknbowledging the very real fear that abolishing NI means abolishing the state pension. The two have gone together for half a century, so it's not surprising.
    My local Facebook group is apoplectic at the cut in NICs, demonstrating almost heroic levels of cognitive dissonance.

    They are simultaneously claiming the cut in current NICs will mean their state pensions are now unfunded, while also suggesting that their "pot" is about to be raided.

    This is rural/Tory Scotland, so I'm surprised that the culprit is.... Jeremy Hunt. There is a chance this is May on Social Care MK2. They are that furious.
    It does startle me too. But I shouldn't be surprised. On reflection, Mr Hunt is apt to seem to the person on the Aberchirder bus like he's doing a Robert Maxwell while changing the law to suit himself.
    There’s still an Aberchirder bus?
    Foggieloan? Aye, atween Huntly an Turra.

This discussion has been closed.