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The SNP’s sixth sense – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
The SNP’s sixth sense – politicalbetting.com

The party attracted £75,000 in bequests and donations from individuals and companies since Yousaf took office in March last year

Read the full story here

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    What do the films Titanic and The Sixth Sense have in common?

    Icy dead people.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    In every sphere of giving money away beyond buying a raffle ticket in the village hall, the issue of reputational damage to the giver is a major factor. And political parties have a problem taking donations from people who don't have a reputation to lose.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    Off topic straight away but which I didn't realise: The Tories have just lost control of their final Surrey Borough. Of the 11 Boroughs they only have a significant influence now in 2 and control in none. In 2015 they controlled all but 1, which was controlled by residents. LDs control 4.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    Apples still fall downwards but the space time in which they do so wobbles, especially for apples at the edge of a galaxy, so they don't need dark matter.

    Harry Potter is all true:

    "space would be haphazardly warped and time would diverge in different patches of the universe".

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/mar/09/controversial-new-theory-of-gravity-rules-out-need-for-dark-matter
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    edited March 9
    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    It's a really good point. The tories has a couple of polls at 19% in November last year but this People Polling score is the lowest since one of 14% (also by PP) during the Truss debacle.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    What these numbers show is how important the SNP MPs are to the party. They are now their major source of income through short money payments. If, as expected, they lose half their MPs to Labour at the election the future of the party is bleak indeed. It is indeed truly bizarre that a party determined to break up the UK (allegedly) is in fact dependent upon that same UK to fund their very existence.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    There have been rumours recently that the investigation is nearing completion but finding a reliable source for these has been problematic. It is genuinely bewildering what the police have in fact been doing.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    Regarding the discussion of the investigation we had yesterday, it seems that one if the reasons it's taken so long and cost so much is the delaying tactics if the security forces.

    Police chief who led Stakeknife inquiry condemns MI5 for stalling investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/police-chief-stakeknife-inquiry-condemns-mi5-stalling-investigation
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    All the best people.

    Trump with Orban tonight:

    “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orban. He’s fantastic…He’s a non-controversial figure because he says, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it. Right? He’s the boss. No, he’s a great leader.”

    https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1766262804858732972
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176
    So who had the innings defeat as the first bet of today’s sporting accumulator?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Two serving ministers - @annietrev & @TomTugendhat - have broken cover to urge Rishi Sunak's government to "lead the way" and increase defence spending to at least 2.5% at a time of growing threats. 1/

    In a highly unusual intervention, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a foreign office minister and former defence minister, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister and an experienced soldier, published an article online that does not appear to have been sanctioned by Downing Street. 2/
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @BethRigby

    👀 Two serving ministers go on record to urge the PM to increase defence spending, in a direct challenge to Sunak over defence record post Budget. Typically govt ministers lobby a PM behind closed doors, rather than publicly. Reflection perhaps of party discipline at moment
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    The police investigation will run for as long as possible.

    When Police Scotland report -

    1) They find - not much. Everyone in Scottish politics apart from the SNP goes after them.
    2) They find - a lot. The SNP and their supporters go after them.

    So no one will be happy. They will make a large number of politicians mad at them, no matter what they do.

    The longer the can is kicked down the road, the more years of pension the people on the enquiry can accumulate and more time to be moved to other roles due to the natural process of moving jobs in the service.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    DavidL said:

    What these numbers show is how important the SNP MPs are to the party. They are now their major source of income through short money payments. If, as expected, they lose half their MPs to Labour at the election the future of the party is bleak indeed. It is indeed truly bizarre that a party determined to break up the UK (allegedly) is in fact dependent upon that same UK to fund their very existence.

    I’m surprised the US isn’t a more significant source of funding, to be honest. From wealthy businessmen with Scottish roots through to people who’ve watched Braveheart and found a bit of Scottishness on ancestry.com. It’s been a reliable long term funding source for Irish Republicanism.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    There have been rumours recently that the investigation is nearing completion but finding a reliable source for these has been problematic. It is genuinely bewildering what the police have in fact been doing.
    There’s a national shortage of whitewash, as Red Bull Racing have bought up the next six months’ supply.
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    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 9
    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    So much in Colombia today is regulated by murder or the threat of murder. Often even if "everybody" knows that X murdered Y, the police won't do anything unless a relative of Y makes a report. The official murder rate is high (although lower than in Brazil or Jamaica), but the real murder rate is MUCH higher. Everybody knows several people who were murdered, including some who were murdered by known assailants who never got arrested let alone charged or convicted. Don't get into any bar fights or argy-bargy on the roads. And it was worse still under Pablo Escobar. Typical conversation among 20-somethings socialising at that time: where's Juan? Oh, someone killed him.

    As for the civil war, the death rate in that was similar to the rate during the Troubles in Northern Ireland, per population. This isn't an attempt to downplay the horrors of either of those conflicts. Just that neither of them was on the same scale as the civil wars in say Russia or Spain. Most of the murders for the past 50 years or so in Colombia have been unrelated to it.

    While the period since 1960 has been on a lower though significant rate, violence and murder have been endemic in Columbias recent history.

    I did deliberately reference 1948 in my comment as that was when the period known as "la Violenca" erupted. It is estimated to have killed 200 000 or so civilians, perhaps 2% of the population of the country. Not perhaps as bad as the civil war in Eastern Congo, but reasonably included in the list of worst civil wars of modern times.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Violencia
    Yes indeed - the Violencia was the backdrop to several works by Gabriel Garcia Marquez, and during that time the death rate through violence was even higher than it was in the 1980s under Pablo Escobar. Most Colombians today, even in the very violent country that Colombia still is, see those years as a time when the country went nuts. That was a different civil war though from the long (and less bloody, rate-wise) war that began in the 1960s and still hasn't quite petered out. The Colombian Violencia was indeed comparable with civil wars in Russia and Spain.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    There have been rumours recently that the investigation is nearing completion but finding a reliable source for these has been problematic. It is genuinely bewildering what the police have in fact been doing.
    They are hoping that the next election makes as many of the players into ex-politicians as possible.

    Retired, defeated politicians have less friends.

    Plus whatever they report will either upset the SNP or their opponents. Quite possibly both. Massively. If you were in the police, would your dream plan be to start a fight with all the politicians?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    An interesting article on Ukraine, and Putin's reasons for war.

    https://archive.ph/R5ryy#selection-4201.0-4206.0

    Not an article the tankies will like.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    OT boxing. Have I been drinking or is the Telegraph's correspondent drunk on poetry?

    Joshua was carefully circumventing the ring and as Ngannou switched to southpaw, looking notably to land with left and right hooks, and the Briton pounced with the most powerful of right hands.

    Is it possible to circumvent the ring from inside it? Notably? Pounced?

    And the denouement?

    As the second round played out, two-time heavyweight world champion Joshua looked in complete control, a hook over the top felling Ngannou, up again at eight, with a follow-up right hand knocking Ngannou clean out, before his foe had hit the ground.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2024/03/08/anthony-joshua-vs-francis-ngannou-live-undercard-saudi/ (£££)

    Awfully sporting of our chap to hit the other fellow while he was standing up.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    There have been rumours recently that the investigation is nearing completion but finding a reliable source for these has been problematic. It is genuinely bewildering what the police have in fact been doing.
    There’s a national shortage of whitewash, as Red Bull Racing have bought up the next six months’ supply.
    There're so many rumours about the Red Bull situation that it's hard to know what's going on in reality - or what went on. But it does have more than a little whiff about it. They're usually so good at media management, and the fact this has got so out of control indicates that there really is fighting at the very top of the organisation.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    The other thing to note is that the SNP national party is absolutely insolvent in that it owes money to the branches which exceed its remaining assets. They remain a going concern because (understandably) the branches are not demanding repayment.

    https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Accounts/ST0027451

    In the last published accounts from August last year they had all of £46K in the bank. Their expenditure exceeded their income by £804K in a year that was not particularly heavy with elections. With this level of contributions that deficit is almost certain to have increased and they will be in the position of having literally no money in the bank in a year where a General Election is expected.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the discussion of the investigation we had yesterday, it seems that one if the reasons it's taken so long and cost so much is the delaying tactics if the security forces.

    Police chief who led Stakeknife inquiry condemns MI5 for stalling investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/police-chief-stakeknife-inquiry-condemns-mi5-stalling-investigation

    Alternatively, they took that long because they were trying to find the difference between their arse and a hole in the ground.

    One classic was when the Steven’s team pulled in an Ulster Defence Regiment soldier for collaborating with the UVF. After interrogating him over a few days, blowing his personal security to the PIRA (he and his family had to be moved), an RUC detective pointed out that the UDR guy was a well known, practising Catholic. No UVF man would go anywhere near him….
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    edited March 9
    Thank-you for the header.

    On an adjacent subject, is it still standard practice for Local Councillors to "tithe" their allowances to their political parties. That is a Councillor who receives £10k would donate £1k.

    Which parties?

    (I only learnt about this because Chris Davies MEP wrote a piece for LDV back in 2012:
    https://www.libdemvoice.org/chris-davies-mep-writes-to-tithe-or-not-to-tithe-27152.html)

    Humza will be pleased to know that in these times of austerity he can get a decent 2+2 VW California camper van for just under £75k. The Ocean model seems nice at £74,222.
    https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/new-vehicles/california.html
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Mr. Jessop, apparently there's a split within the Red Bull firm:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68517911
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Scott_xP said:

    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Two serving ministers - @annietrev & @TomTugendhat - have broken cover to urge Rishi Sunak's government to "lead the way" and increase defence spending to at least 2.5% at a time of growing threats. 1/

    In a highly unusual intervention, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a foreign office minister and former defence minister, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister and an experienced soldier, published an article online that does not appear to have been sanctioned by Downing Street. 2/

    I see the Daily Mail is pushing for more spending too. Alongside its demand for tax cuts and reduced borrowing presumably.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Scott_xP said:

    Anybody still think Richi will "lead" the party to oblivion in the Autumn?

    Yes, but only because the alternatives are even worse.

    Going for an election in the autumn may be the equivalent of spending your last pound on a lottery ticket, but an almost certain rout later is better than a certain rout now.

    And it will be Rishi because enough of the parliamentary party still have enough connection with reality to fear Braverman or Badenoch getting the gig.

    It is going to be grimly fascinating watching the centre lose all control of its ministers, though. The 1997 campaign was bad enough, but this looks set to be worse and likely to run for months.

    Looping back to the header, how much is Yousaf a Scottish Sunak? Neither really up to the job, but mostly doomed by the timebombs they have been gifted by their charismatic predecessors?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    edited March 9

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    Is this a browser-based webmail? If so, I'd try a third-party email app to see if the same issues occur (I think AOL used to allow that). If they don't, it's possibly a browser issue.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    There have been rumours recently that the investigation is nearing completion but finding a reliable source for these has been problematic. It is genuinely bewildering what the police have in fact been doing.
    There’s a national shortage of whitewash, as Red Bull Racing have bought up the next six months’ supply.
    There're so many rumours about the Red Bull situation that it's hard to know what's going on in reality - or what went on. But it does have more than a little whiff about it. They're usually so good at media management, and the fact this has got so out of control indicates that there really is fighting at the very top of the organisation.
    Yes, the background is a massive power struggle at the company following the death of Dietrich Matechitz.

    The suggestion is that Horny tried to engineer a management buyout of the team at a discount price and failed, and those opposed to him have a lot of dirt. There’s two power centres at the company, in Thailand and in Austria, and they’re fighting with each other over control. In shares the Thais have 51% and the Austrians 49%, even though the company was run from Austria for decades. Horny has the support of the Thais for now.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    edited March 9

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    If you are really using AOL Browser (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer), that is hideous security issue all by itself.

    It hasn’t be updated in decades and even when released was considered a bit insecure.

    Get a modern browser. Change all your passwords. Everything.

    Get a high quality anti-virus product. Scan your machine on the most intensive setting.

    If you find anything, change the passwords again. Paranoia is a friend.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    My grandfather fought hard in WW2, and I think he would be proud of what the Tories have done to Britain.

    Mind you, he was in the SS.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194
    Interesting piece about Tory woke warriors and being surprised that parliamentary privilege doesn't allow them to say what they like about whom they evidently regard as little people:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/09/michelle-donelan-case-highlights-perils-for-politicians-who-pick-fights-online
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    Scott_xP said:

    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Two serving ministers - @annietrev & @TomTugendhat - have broken cover to urge Rishi Sunak's government to "lead the way" and increase defence spending to at least 2.5% at a time of growing threats. 1/

    In a highly unusual intervention, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a foreign office minister and former defence minister, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister and an experienced soldier, published an article online that does not appear to have been sanctioned by Downing Street. 2/

    I see the Daily Mail is pushing for more spending too. Alongside its demand for tax cuts and reduced borrowing presumably.
    Opportunity for Labour here to up public spending while keeping the right wing rags happy. Because military spending doesn’t count as public spending to the Daily Mail.

    What could they allocate to “defence” that’s actually other stuff?

    - International development? Easy, development at the point of a bayonet, Victorian style
    - Health and social care? Military hospitals and clinics that happen to be open to the community, army veteran care homes, run for them by local authorities and open to civilians
    - Transport: new military railroad to transport tanks and missiles at high speed from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds
    - Education: let’s convert half our state schools to military academies
    - Government debt? “War bonds”
    - Incapacity benefit? Help for heroes

    -
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,327
    Meanwhile, although the Tory membership has fallen drastically, they still have sufficient funds for paid-for deliveries all over the country. Given that the Tories seem to play fast and loose with the election spending limits, I'm sure their local opponents will be better closely monitoring such deliveries to ensure their is no breach of the law.
    In fact, the blizzard of paid for paper more or less ensures the election will be held beyond a date which might force such deliveries to be declared. The Tories might end up forcing themselves into a bind, despite being very well funded
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    You’re using the AOL browser, or an AOL email address on a more regular web browser? The AOL browser is very outdated, and likely full of exploits. You can login to your AOL email account from any browser these days.

    https://help.aol.com/articles/download-or-upgrade-your-web-browser
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,073
    When the SNP was a party promoting independence, it received donations from independence supporters. When it was a party promoting Scottish business, it received donations from Scottish businesses. If it starts promoting independence and business again, it will start receiving donations again. Whilst it continues to try to be Green / Labour lite, it will continue to alienate the people who could afford to donate to it.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,327
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    If you are really using AOL Browser (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer), that is hideous security issue all by itself.

    It hasn’t be updated in decades and even when released was considered a bit insecure.

    Get a modern browser. Change all your passwords. Everything.

    Get a high quality anti-virus product. Scan your machine on the most intensive setting.

    If you find anything, change the passwords again. Paranoia is a friend.
    Thanks! Your wikipedia link doesn't seem to work, but the browser I use is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Mail. The issue arose on a machine that I don't use very often. Is there a good browser that I can use with the same AOL email address?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding the discussion of the investigation we had yesterday, it seems that one if the reasons it's taken so long and cost so much is the delaying tactics if the security forces.

    Police chief who led Stakeknife inquiry condemns MI5 for stalling investigation
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/08/police-chief-stakeknife-inquiry-condemns-mi5-stalling-investigation

    Of course it shouldn't be like that, but if the post office can obfuscate an investigation for a couple of decades, imagine what the security service can and would do. They will not just delay, but lie and mislead too. Any outcomes will therefore be pretty unreliable, as well as expensive, stressful and time consuming.

    I maintain we can make better use of these resources.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    edited March 9

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    If you are really using AOL Browser (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer), that is hideous security issue all by itself.

    It hasn’t be updated in decades and even when released was considered a bit insecure.

    Get a modern browser. Change all your passwords. Everything.

    Get a high quality anti-virus product. Scan your machine on the most intensive setting.

    If you find anything, change the passwords again. Paranoia is a friend.
    Thanks! Your wikipedia link doesn't seem to work, but the browser I use is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Mail. The issue arose on a machine that I don't use very often. Is there a good browser that I can use with the same AOL email address?
    Google Chrome or Microsoft Edge are the most common browsers, these days. Safari for Mac, of course.

    There’s also Firefox.

    Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer - problem was bracket at the end
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    edited March 9
    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib Dems (who) or the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0

    Guess, guess, guess. Everybody has talked themselves into believing May 2nd and are now using each others guesswork as sources. ☹️☹️☹️
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    Interesting that Yousaf, a Muslim, gets the most financial support from his party by far from a Christian evangelical
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib dems (who) lr the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
    It will be interesting to see how many candidates they actually field at the GE. They say they’ll stand everywhere, but that means finding £325k just for the deposits, most of which they won’t get back.

    Whether their supporters vote Reform, vote Tory, or stay at home, is likely the biggest determinant of how the election goes for Sunak.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib dems (who) lr the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
    It will be interesting to see how many candidates they actually field at the GE. They say they’ll stand everywhere, but that means finding £325k just for the deposits, most of which they won’t get back.

    Whether their supporters vote Reform, vote Tory, or stay at home, is likely the biggest determinant of how the election goes for Sunak.
    Re your last paragraph I have been saying that on here for quite some time
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244

    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib Dems (who) or the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
    In the old UKIP days, some LibDem votes did switch to UKIP. Their voters are not as loyal as Labour or Conservatives
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,654

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    If you are really using AOL Browser (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer), that is hideous security issue all by itself.

    It hasn’t be updated in decades and even when released was considered a bit insecure.

    Get a modern browser. Change all your passwords. Everything.

    Get a high quality anti-virus product. Scan your machine on the most intensive setting.

    If you find anything, change the passwords again. Paranoia is a friend.
    Thanks! Your wikipedia link doesn't seem to work, but the browser I use is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Mail. The issue arose on a machine that I don't use very often. Is there a good browser that I can use with the same AOL email address?
    You can migrate so that the AOL email can be read on a more modern email tool e.g. Mail on Apple.

    Here is the stuff you need to be able to tell new email client tool where to go to get your AOL mail:

    https://help.aol.co.uk/articles/how-do-i-use-other-email-applications-to-send-and-receive-my-aol-mail?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALva4-AyvC-5G3mYhwgHErQUbEeI4D7dO-J-tDS8HIQ26kVJm00Fq50MP7a_34B5yYmG65fpMG4Ctu1zDIUh279NiN7HKiRRFMY54c98sqizDTaPx_G4u0wQLS5KGVL0ivbc83MB1ZIXGMAo00KXNn_jJ_alYCyWffPdJSXbk4ke
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,112
    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    viewcode said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0

    Guess, guess, guess. Everybody has talked themselves into believing May 2nd and are now using each others guesswork as sources. ☹️☹️☹️
    I can't see him calling an election on current polls, unless he has called a general election by Easter it will be in the autumn
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0

    I did think that May 2 was suicidal bollocks for the tories but Shappsie is clearly in electioneering mode.



    Zelensky: Elizaveta Trusskaya also wore a fur hat!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government, and on here it seems by @Scott_xP.

    It is unimaginable that Sunak would call an election in May with the polls where they are and when he has consistently said the Autumn and whenever it comes, it will be Sunak leading as nobody else wants the poisoned chalice
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib dems (who) lr the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
    It will be interesting to see how many candidates they actually field at the GE. They say they’ll stand everywhere, but that means finding £325k just for the deposits, most of which they won’t get back.

    Whether their supporters vote Reform, vote Tory, or stay at home, is likely the biggest determinant of how the election goes for Sunak.
    Deposits won't be an issue, I suspect. They have enough wealthy obsessive backers for whom that's chickenfeed. It's also a cheap for the amount of publicity (national mailshot, PEB, media having to take you seriously...) you get.

    Besides, this is their best chance- when there are a lot of people on the right annoyed with a Conservative government. And unlike 2019, it's hard to see how the leadership can be bought off.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    kjh said:

    Off topic straight away but which I didn't realise: The Tories have just lost control of their final Surrey Borough. Of the 11 Boroughs they only have a significant influence now in 2 and control in none. In 2015 they controlled all but 1, which was controlled by residents. LDs control 4.

    In 1997 Surrey was the safest Tory county in the UK, followed by Buckinghamshire.

    Now post Brexit Lincolnshire, Essex, Kent, even Staffordshire and Cambridgeshire have more Conservative controlled district and unitary councils
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    If you are really using AOL Browser (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Explorer), that is hideous security issue all by itself.

    It hasn’t be updated in decades and even when released was considered a bit insecure.

    Get a modern browser. Change all your passwords. Everything.

    Get a high quality anti-virus product. Scan your machine on the most intensive setting.

    If you find anything, change the passwords again. Paranoia is a friend.
    Thanks! Your wikipedia link doesn't seem to work, but the browser I use is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL_Mail. The issue arose on a machine that I don't use very often. Is there a good browser that I can use with the same AOL email address?
    You can migrate so that the AOL email can be read on a more modern email tool e.g. Mail on Apple.

    Here is the stuff you need to be able to tell new email client tool where to go to get your AOL mail:

    https://help.aol.co.uk/articles/how-do-i-use-other-email-applications-to-send-and-receive-my-aol-mail?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALva4-AyvC-5G3mYhwgHErQUbEeI4D7dO-J-tDS8HIQ26kVJm00Fq50MP7a_34B5yYmG65fpMG4Ctu1zDIUh279NiN7HKiRRFMY54c98sqizDTaPx_G4u0wQLS5KGVL0ivbc83MB1ZIXGMAo00KXNn_jJ_alYCyWffPdJSXbk4ke
    Nick Palmer - might be worth mentioning in this context that I get quite a lot of spam email purporting to be from you (though so clearly not from you that my brain pays it no attention whatsoever.)
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    edited March 9
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that Yousaf, a Muslim, gets the most financial support from his party by far from a Christian evangelical

    Certain styles of Christian evangelical are much closer to traditionalist Muslims than other versions of Christianity imo, in that they try to treat the Christian scripture in the same literalist 'written by God' way that is characteristic of Islam, and is actually (to me) very fragile and given to shattering as a worldview.

    I don't know which tradition Souter's followed.

    That is problematic, because the Christian scripture is not that sort of document, and does not make that claim.

    In my view that is a huge part of the problems some Evangelical traditions have coping with contemporary challenges. It's a reductionist / rationalist approach imposed on Christian tradition, that to me suggests that they have laid aside most of the distinctives they should be using as part of their critique of modern society.

    I'd almost call it Dawkinsite.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,112

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government, and on here it seems by @Scott_xP.

    It is unimaginable that Sunak would call an election in May with the polls where they are and when he has consistently said the Autumn and whenever it comes, it will be Sunak leading as nobody else wants the poisoned chalice
    I would be flabbergasted if Sunak held a May election , it makes no sense and the budget wasn’t a pre-election one . I expect an income tax cut in the autumn before any election.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    There's a May election not in the offing
    -- at least so she said
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,703
    Sandpit said:

    Whether their supporters vote Reform, vote Tory, or stay at home, is likely the biggest determinant of how the election goes for Sunak.

    Yes, that seems like the biggest uncertainty in the polls, but it also looks like the difference between 50 Tory MPs and 150.

    It's a landslide defeat either way.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Some good news.

    Remember those polls about how young people don't believe the Holocaust happend?

    Turns out they were duff polling with bad sampling

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329

    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government

    The quotes in the article are from Tory MPs

    They know May is their best chance of holding on to their seats
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757

    FPT

    An oddity that I'm not sure what to do with - advice welcome. I've used the AOL browser for many years (I know it's quite rare now, but a zillion people use the address). Yesterday, I sent a reminder to myself. It didn't arrive, but it's listed in my "Sent email" as having been sent to an entirely unfamiliar address (an apparently legit university charity that I've never heard of, collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk - trying to address that site triggers a warning that the site does not use authentication and may be an attempt to trick me). Opening the message in "Sent email", it *appears* to have only gone to my own address - not to collegetownpta - but it didn't actually arrive at my address.

    Repeating it, it arrived in my own address normally and shows up normally in the "Sent email" list.

    Some sort of spoofing seems to be going on, but what? Perhaps some, but not all, of my emails are being diverted to a hacker address, in the hope that I'll reveal something about a bank account etc. What would it be sensible to do, preferably not involving changing my email address? AOL doesn't appear to have any mechanism for reporting the issue.

    Further to the useful advice from others, just to note collegetownpta seems to belong to a primary school's PTA, not a university.

    College Town Primary School Parent Teacher Association
    Branksome Hill Road, College Town, Sandhurst, GU47 0QF

    Registered Charity Number: 1054960
    collegetownpta@hotmail.co.uk

    https://collegetownpta.org.uk/contact/

    The main school website appears to have been designed in the mid-1990s with its primary colours, crude visual effects and comic sans type.
    https://www.collegetownprimary.com/pta/

    I'd vaguely wonder if your one exploits foreign characters so is not what it seems, but on the other hand it might be your warning is triggered by absence of email security markers that have recently become widespread.

    Anyway, ignore my ramblings and do what the others have said: change your browser and all your passwords and set up MFA on all sites. The problem is that if a hacker did have control of your email account, they can use that to change your passwords on other sites.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Was yesterday’s people polling poll (with the 13% Ref vote) the first to have Con below 20%?

    It’s also the lowest combined vote for Refcon at 31% (I can’t see LLG as can’t find Green), very different from the spring 2019 dynamic we were talking about earlier where the combined BXP-Tory vote was still 40%+

    Green was 7% according to Wiki. LLG was 63%.
    Assuming no May election I expect LLG vs Ref will peak shortly after the locals. Why? Because Green and LD always outperform in local elections and get a boost, but Ref will almost certainly underperform as they’ll stand people in fewer seats.

    But those Ref votes won’t necessarily go to the Tories, certainly not in locals. They’ll either abstain or quite possibly opt for a NOTA vote on Green or Lib Dem, or local independents.

    So temporarily I could see REFCON slipping below 30%, before the Tories begin the inevitable 3rd party squeeze of Reform support in the run up to the general and end up on 32-33%.
    The problem for the Tories is that quite a lot of the Reform Ltd. Polling is "none of the above" protesters. So there is no guarantee that it goes to the Tories. On fact some will definitely not go Tory and settle of a Lib Dem or even Green protest. So the result could be far worse than those who think Refcon is an actual choice are suggesting now.
    From what I have read about Reform they are a right wing stop all immigrants slash taxes and huge increases in defence spending and I just cannot see any leakage to Lib dems (who) lr the greens

    Some will vote conservative but many will stay Reform
    It will be interesting to see how many candidates they actually field at the GE. They say they’ll stand everywhere, but that means finding £325k just for the deposits, most of which they won’t get back.

    Whether their supporters vote Reform, vote Tory, or stay at home, is likely the biggest determinant of how the election goes for Sunak.
    Deposits won't be an issue, I suspect. They have enough wealthy obsessive backers for whom that's chickenfeed. It's also a cheap for the amount of publicity (national mailshot, PEB, media having to take you seriously...) you get.

    Besides, this is their best chance- when there are a lot of people on the right annoyed with a Conservative government. And unlike 2019, it's hard to see how the leadership can be bought off.
    Agree the money is not a big deal, though I suspect the real limitation is candidate quality. Get 600 Refuk candidates, many in places they are going to lose the deposits, and you can be pretty much guaranteed some of them have posted stuff on social media that will put potential waverers off from switching to them.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,904
    algarkirk said:

    In every sphere of giving money away beyond buying a raffle ticket in the village hall, the issue of reputational damage to the giver is a major factor. And political parties have a problem taking donations from people who don't have a reputation to lose.

    I was once told that Paddy Ashdown turned down a £1m donation offered to the LDs by Mohammed Al-Fayed.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Johnson was on course to still lose handsomely to SKS.

    The idea that the Tories would somehow be on the way to winning with him is for the birds.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244

    Some good news.

    Remember those polls about how young people don't believe the Holocaust happend?

    Turns out they were duff polling with bad sampling

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/

    Very useful link which I read with interest. Thank you @Stuartinromford
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745
    Scott_xP said:

    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government

    The quotes in the article are from Tory MPs

    They know May is their best chance of holding on to their seats
    That's true for some Conservative MPs, but not enough.

    Let's say the range of outcomes is 75 - 200 Conservatives in the next Parliament.

    75 are safe anyway. About 150 are doomed anyway; they might as well hang on another six months. It's only the ones in the middle band that benefit from an early election.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Talking of campaigns, when will the next PB “SKS must resign” campaign start? Beergate was the end of him with one user posting about it continuously. Oh well.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    ydoethur said:

    Did that police investigation into Mr and Mrs Murrell ever actually get anywhere?

    Police Scotland seem to be moving more slowly than the Supreme Court when obliged to rule against Donald Trump.

    Still ongoing, it has developed into some new directions.

    From last summer

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23664969.police-probe-snp-finances-moved-beyond-initial-complaint/

    From before Christmas

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12847831/So-SNP-fraud-cops-looking-purchase-95k-Jaguar.html

    It was reported earlier on this year that some people who signed financial documents for the SNP denied putting their signatures on them.

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/11868841/police-investigating-fraud-claims-over-snp-financial-documents/
    I'm assuming we'll get through another 3 parliaments at this rate before it concludes. I know financial shenanigans can be tricky to look into, but my gods, it would be a tremendous anti-climax if after all this time there's a conclusion of 'It was badly run, but that's it'.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    They get an 8.5% rise in their pension next month which is more than generous (and I am a pensioner)
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    Scott_xP said:

    It is a campaign by Labour who are understandly wanting to be in government

    The quotes in the article are from Tory MPs

    They know May is their best chance of holding on to their seats
    Utter nonsense - and who are these unnamed conservative mps?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 9

    Johnson was on course to still lose handsomely to SKS.

    The idea that the Tories would somehow be on the way to winning with him is for the birds.

    Whether they would have lost as badly as they now look like doing is an open question (I think they'd be doing a bit better if for no reason than they wouldn't have lost the Boris fans who see Rishi as a traitor), but there is a lot of rewriting history to assume that either he didn't have any dip, or that if he did it absolultely would have gotten no worse or even improved.

    Which is technically possible, but of course Tory MPs acted because they thought it would get worse, because he was constantly digging himself into problems. A bunch of them regretted that fairly soon, and definitely do now, but it wouldn't have been an easy ride with him even if perhaps they'd be doing a bit better.

    The real damage was Truss. Or not even Truss, but her ousting. Things got so bad it's understandable why they did it, but even before Rishi showed he was not up to the job that action torpedoed the party's morale and reputation among waverers.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,703
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

    The people who can accurately predict the future of interest rates (if there are any) are making lots of money on the financial markets with that information. They're not writing articles in the Press for a relative pittance.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    There are of course many very nice and altruistic pensioners including all our parents and beloved aunts and uncles. But as a bloc they deploy an incredible doublethink about the past. It was:

    - Hard graft, a struggle to make ends meet, meaning anyone now comfortable in retirement did so against the odds and through hard work
    - A paradise where people greeted each other in the streets, there was no crime, Britain was admired and feared abroad and the trains ran on time
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    They get an 8.5% rise in their pension next month which is more than generous (and I am a pensioner)
    Some, don’t think we know how many, will be taken into the income tax area. My wife, with her OAP and a couple of small occupational ones has teetered in and out of being taxable for several years.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    🚨 The HuffPost UK weekend political read on why so many Labour and Tory MPs believe the general election will be on May 2.

    One Tory said: "My guess would be Rishi does PMQs on March 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

    https://t.co/VllfQ1yJn0

    Elections staff do good work, but I think they need a little more than 3 hours to organise the election.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    They get an 8.5% rise in their pension next month which is more than generous (and I am a pensioner)
    Some, don’t think we know how many, will be taken into the income tax area. My wife, with her OAP and a couple of small occupational ones has teetered in and out of being taxable for several years.
    I already pay tax on my pension income but my wife's £5,000 pension will not be taxable in her lifetime
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

    The people who can accurately predict the future of interest rates (if there are any) are making lots of money on the financial markets with that information. They're not writing articles in the Press for a relative pittance.
    Well the OBR is a disinterested commentator
    "Alongside easing inflationary pressures, market participants now expect a sharper fall in interest rates than in the autumn. Bank Rate is expected to fall more steeply this year from its current peak of 5.25 per cent to 4.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2024. "
    https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2024/#:~:text=1.5 Alongside easing inflationary pressures,the final quarter of 2024.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Is @MoonRabbit predicting it will be called a week on Monday?
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,904
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @haynesdeborah

    BREAKING: Two serving ministers - @annietrev & @TomTugendhat - have broken cover to urge Rishi Sunak's government to "lead the way" and increase defence spending to at least 2.5% at a time of growing threats. 1/

    In a highly unusual intervention, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a foreign office minister and former defence minister, and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister and an experienced soldier, published an article online that does not appear to have been sanctioned by Downing Street. 2/

    I see the Daily Mail is pushing for more spending too. Alongside its demand for tax cuts and reduced borrowing presumably.
    Opportunity for Labour here to up public spending while keeping the right wing rags happy. Because military spending doesn’t count as public spending to the Daily Mail.

    What could they allocate to “defence” that’s actually other stuff?

    - International development? Easy, development at the point of a bayonet, Victorian style
    - Health and social care? Military hospitals and clinics that happen to be open to the community, army veteran care homes, run for them by local authorities and open to civilians
    - Transport: new military railroad to transport tanks and missiles at high speed from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds
    - Education: let’s convert half our state schools to military academies
    - Government debt? “War bonds”
    - Incapacity benefit? Help for heroes

    -
    An independent councillor on Argyll and Bute council once remarked that if they designated a local road in need of repair as a link road to the Queensferry Crossing bridge, the SNP would allocate budget for it.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

    The people who can accurately predict the future of interest rates (if there are any) are making lots of money on the financial markets with that information. They're not writing articles in the Press for a relative pittance.
    When the Telegraph was free I tracked its interest rate or GBP predictions over one or two years. Their accuracy was unacceptably bad. Predictions, particularly in the financial sector, are for making not checking, and the fact that they are wrong is not necessarily a problem. The point is to crowd think: if you make a prediction and it's in the herd, then you won't get fired, even if it was galumphingly wrong
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    On the subject of computer security, Microsoft has been hacked by the Russians again, using credentials stolen in their previous hack a few weeks ago.
    https://msrc.microsoft.com/blog/2024/03/update-on-microsoft-actions-following-attack-by-nation-state-actor-midnight-blizzard/
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    They get an 8.5% rise in their pension next month which is more than generous (and I am a pensioner)
    Some, don’t think we know how many, will be taken into the income tax area. My wife, with her OAP and a couple of small occupational ones has teetered in and out of being taxable for several years.
    I already pay tax on my pension income but my wife's £5,000 pension will not be taxable in her lifetime
    Doesn’t she get the OAP? Or is that all she gets?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    I simply don’t buy this May election .

    In the autumn interest rates should be on their way down , the economy might show some growth and net migration is likely to have shown a fall .


    That isn't what the market says - mortgage rates are slowly rising so the market don't think there is a likely to be many interest rate reductions.
    Between May and October, there’s going to be a million remortgages, creating a million households, and their relatives, who are now significantly worse off than they were four years ago!
    Umm, can't agree with eek that interest rates are on the up. Most of the commentary I see thinks the opposite

    The people who can accurately predict the future of interest rates (if there are any) are making lots of money on the financial markets with that information. They're not writing articles in the Press for a relative pittance.
    When the Telegraph was free I tracked its interest rate or GBP predictions over one or two years. Their accuracy was unacceptably bad. Predictions, particularly in the financial sector, are for making not checking, and the fact that they are wrong is not necessarily a problem. The point is to crowd think: if you make a prediction and it's in the herd, then you won't get fired, even if it was galumphingly wrong
    Look at where money can be made or lost -- i.e. the yield curve -- if you want to know what the market thinks the direction of interest rates might be.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 9
    Carnyx said:

    Interesting piece about Tory woke warriors and being surprised that parliamentary privilege doesn't allow them to say what they like about whom they evidently regard as little people:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/mar/09/michelle-donelan-case-highlights-perils-for-politicians-who-pick-fights-online

    I won't attribute this trend to social media precisely, though it comes across as similar to it, but over here and 10x more in the USA some politicians are increasingly treating all their communications as if they are some random person mouthing off in the pub or, indeed, on twitter. Where the goal is to impress someone or troll an opponent. No care about how it presents to others, or to persuade people, or even have any worth, but to just blunder into random discussions with some braindead take which will get applause from some mythical mob of supporters.

    Nothing wrong with a bit of fiery rhetoric or biting comment at times, but good politicians pick the moment and can do dignity or seriousness when they want to, they mould to the situation, whereas too often now they are just all crazy all the time, or, and I think for senior ministers like Donelan this is likely, switch between anonymous and hiding from scrutiny, robotically parroting bland lines, and lame attempts at cultural interventions.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484

    My straw poll is that self-interested and self-entitled pensioners (sadly, I include my parents here) are entirely untouched by the budget this week - the cut on NI is not relevant to them. They seemed only briefly interested in the fact it was for us. It's possible their propensity to vote has dipped slightly in the polling, without many new votes coming from working people the other way, leading to the even lower Tory polling.

    They truly seem to live in a bubble where they're hard done by and have no idea how the rest of the population see them.

    They get an 8.5% rise in their pension next month which is more than generous (and I am a pensioner)
    Some, don’t think we know how many, will be taken into the income tax area. My wife, with her OAP and a couple of small occupational ones has teetered in and out of being taxable for several years.
    I already pay tax on my pension income but my wife's £5,000 pension will not be taxable in her lifetime
    Doesn’t she get the OAP? Or is that all she gets?
    That is her state pension and her total income as she brought up our 3 children and only had a small part time job in her later years
This discussion has been closed.